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Lowe’s Latest: K. Williams, Payne, Monk, Burks, Hartenstein

May 12th, 2021 at 12:23pm CST by Luke Adams

For the 10th year in a row, ESPN’s Zach Lowe has named his end-of-season “Luke Walton All-Stars,” honoring overlooked rotation players and NBA journeymen who have impressed him most over the course of the year.

Nets guard Bruce Brown, Warriors forward Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Raptors teammates Yuta Watanabe and DeAndre’ Bembry are among the players who made Lowe’s list, which also includes a handful of interesting tidbits on some of his choices. Here are a few highlights:

Thunder forward Kenrich Williams, who resisted signing a two-way contract multiple times earlier in his career, has enjoyed a breakout year in Oklahoma City. Sources tell Lowe that several playoff teams expressed trade interest in Williams prior to March’s deadline, but he wanted to remain in OKC, where he’s under contract for two more years (both non-guaranteed).
Suns guard Cameron Payne told Lowe that he thought his NBA career might be over in 2020, when the Mavericks opted to sign Trey Burke over him for the summer restart after he had played well for Dallas’ G League affiliate. However, he got an opportunity shortly thereafter with Phoenix, in large part because head coach Monty Williams had gotten to know him during their time with the Thunder.
Another former first-round pick, Hornets guard Malik Monk, was concerned about his NBA career last year as well, following his suspension for violating the NBA’s drug policy, his brother Marcus Monk told Lowe. The former Kentucky standout has enjoyed a career year while trying to let go of tension about his role, Lowe writes. “Guys who have success in college think the NBA is going to go a certain way,” Marcus said. “You think you’re invincible. Malik fell victim to that. I’m proud of how he matured.”
Before he signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the Knicks last fall, Alec Burks discussed a deal with the Bulls, according to Lowe. Burks’ familiarity with Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant from their time in Utah was a factor in his decision to choose New York.
After an underwhelming stint in Denver, Isaiah Hartenstein has played well for the Cavaliers, averaging 8.3 PPG and 6.0 RPG in 16 games (17.9 MPG). Lowe says he wouldn’t be surprised if Hartenstein turns down his minimum-salary player option for 2021/22 to seek a new deal.

Tyrell Terry Shares Update Via Instagram

May 11th, 2021 at 3:08pm CST by Luke Adams

Mavericks rookie guard Tyrell Terry, who has been out since the All-Star break for personal reasons, said on Instagram this week that he plans to be “back and better than before,” as Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News tweets. While it’s not clear when Terry will be available again, his Instagram post included the message, “I will see y’all soon!”

Crowded All-NBA Field Will Impact Several Contract Situations

May 11th, 2021 at 11:02am CST by Luke Adams

When Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer shared his early All-NBA picks this week, he rightly pointed out that limiting the field to 15 players will leave a number of worthy candidates on the outside looking in. O’Connor had to exclude worthy contenders such as Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Jaylen Brown, Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, Jrue Holiday, and Kyrie Irving from his three All-NBA teams.

Among the other players left off the top 15 by O’Connor were Donovan Mitchell, Zach LaVine, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox. Those players are especially notable because an All-NBA spot this season would either substantially increase the value of the contract extensions they signed last offseason or would put them in line for a significantly more lucrative extension this summer.

Jayson Tatum, who earned a spot on O’Connor’s All-NBA Third Team, is in the same boat. Like Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox, he signed a rookie scale extension that includes Rose Rule language, which could bump his starting salary from 25% of the cap to 30% of the cap.

Here are how those players, who signed five-year, maximum-salary contract extensions last offseason, will be affected by whether or not they earn All-NBA honors. These are projected values based on a 3% salary cap increase.

Player	No All-NBA	All-NBA
Donovan Mitchell	$163,000,590	$195,600,710
Jayson Tatum	$163,000,590	$195,600,710
Bam Adebayo	$163,000,590	$185,820,675 (First Team only)
De’Aaron Fox	$163,000,590	$169,522,180 (Third Team) *

* Fox’s deal would be worth $182,560,660 if he makes the All-NBA Second Team and $195,600,710 if he makes the First Team.

Fox probably has no chance at making an All-NBA team, given the competition at guard and the Kings’ spot in the standings. The other three players here have better cases, but Adebayo is likely a long shot, making Mitchell and Tatum the most realistic candidates. They’d only need to sneak onto the Third Team to increase the projected value of their new five-year deals by more than $32MM.

As O’Connor writes, Tatum has a clearer path to an All-NBA spot than Mitchell based on his position. The guard spot is absolutely stacked this season — Mitchell would have to beat out at least one of Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, and James Harden, as well as all the guards mentioned at the top of this story. As good as he’s been, he may be left out.

While Tatum, Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox have already negotiated “super-max” language into their contracts and are now trying to guarantee a salary increase by earning All-NBA honors, a handful of players will become eligible for a higher maximum salary on a new extension if they make an All-NBA team this year. An All-NBA spot would either make them eligible for a Rose Rule extension or a Designated Veteran Extension.

Here are those players, along with the projected contract extension they’d become eligible for with an All-NBA nod. These projections are on the conservative side, since they’re based on annual salary cap increases of just 3%.

Player	Max extension with All-NBA spot	Year it would begin
Nikola Jokic	Five years, $242,098,25	2023/24 *
Joel Embiid	Four years, $187,000,032	2023/24
Zach LaVine	Five years, $235,046,855	2022/23
Luka Doncic	Five years, $201,468,730	2022/23

* Jokic would have to wait until the 2022 offseason to sign a super-max extension. The others could sign extensions during the 2021 offseason.

Embiid is still under contract for two more years beyond 2020/21, which is why he’d only be able to tack on four new years to his current deal instead of five. Jokic is in a similar spot, but because he’ll only have six years of NBA service at the end of this season, he’d have to wait until 2022 to officially sign an extension, at which point he’d be eligible for five new years instead of just four.

Doncic’s potential extension has the lowest average value of any of these hypothetical deals because he’d only be eligible for a starting salary worth 30% of the cap, instead of 35%, due to his limited years of NBA service.

MVP candidates Jokic, Embiid, and Doncic all look like pretty safe bets to make an All-NBA team this spring, and I imagine the Nuggets, Sixers, and Mavericks will be ready to put super-max extension offers on the table for their respective stars as soon as they’re eligible to sign them.

As for LaVine, he likely won’t make an All-NBA team, which may be a relief for the Bulls — deciding whether or not to offer LaVine a standard maximum contract could be a difficult decision in its own right. If he were eligible for a super-max, that would make negotiations even more challenging.

Assuming LaVine doesn’t earn All-NBA honors, he’d only be eligible for a four-year, $104.83MM extension this offseason. However, the Bulls could go higher than that if they renegotiate his 2021/22 salary using their cap room, or if they wait until the 2022 offseason — as a free agent, LaVine would be eligible for a five-year contract worth up to $201.47MM (projection based on 3% annual cap increases) if he re-signs with Chicago, even without All-NBA honors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mavs Hope Porzingis Can Return On Wednesday

May 10th, 2021 at 3:27pm CST by Luke Adams

Mavericks big man Kristaps Porzingis will remain sidelined for Tuesday’s game in Memphis, but the team hopes he’ll be available to make his return at home on Wednesday vs. the Pelicans, head coach Rick Carlisle said today.

As Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News details, Carlisle said that Porzingis has done “very well over the last 10 days” as he has attempted to work his way back from right knee soreness. Porzingis, who was also recently bothered by a left ankle sprain, has played only once since April 22.

The Mavericks have just four games left on their regular season schedule, and Porzingis said today that he has made it a priority to get back in the lineup before the postseason begins, as Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News tweets. Carlisle agreed that’s the plan.

“Definitely better for him to get back and get some games under his belt before the playoffs start,” Carlisle said, per Townsend. “No question about that — for conditioning, for chemistry, for rhythm, for things having to do with the system. With him now playing some four defensively, that when he’s guarding the four-men, coverage responsibilities are different, so it’s important to get those kinds of reps in in game situations as well as practice situations.”

Having played in 40 of Dallas’ 68 games so far this season, Porzingis is averaging 20.2 points and 9.1 rebounds per game with a career-best .473 FG%.

Heath Updates: Porzingis, Kleber, J. Brown, R. Williams, Hunter, Carter, Bradley

May 9th, 2021 at 10:54am CST by Arthur Hill

The Mavericks are in good shape to avoid a play-in game, but they may have to finish the regular season without big men Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber, writes Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News.

Porzingis has already been declared out for today’s game against the Cavaliers, marking the sixth straight game he will miss and the ninth in the last 10 games. He suffered a sprained left ankle on March 22, then returned three games later and had to leave with soreness in his right knee. He tested the knee before Friday’s game, shooting for about 15 minutes.

Kleber has sat out the past three games with pain in his right Achilles. He is officially listed as questionable for today, but coach Rick Carlisle doesn’t expect him to play.

“Not having Kleber or Porzingis puts us in a more precarious situation,” Carlisle said. “But we’ve just got to figure it out. Five games left. Every game is super meaningful. We understand it. We’re just going to stay in the present, stick to the process and keep working.”

Here are some more injury-related updates:

Celtics forward Jaylen Brown will miss today’s showdown with the Heat because of a sprained right ankle, tweets Mark Murphy of The Boston Herald. The team had hoped Brown could be ready, but he will sit out his third straight game. Robert Williams is considered probable for today with turf toe, but coach Brad Stevens said there will be a lot of game-time decisions for him for the rest of the season, Murphy adds (via Twitter).
Hawks forward D e’Andre Hunter will be a game-time decision at best on Monday, according to Kevin Chouinard of NBA.com (Twitter link). Coach Nate McMillan indicated that a final decision will be made after today’s practice and Monday’s walkthrough. Hunter has missed the past 24 games and has only played twice since January 29.
Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. is dealing with blurry vision and slightly impaired depth perception, tweets Josh Robbins of The Athletic. He will miss tonight’s game with a left eye abrasion (Twitter link).
Rockets coach Stephen Silas said there’s no timetable for a return by guard Avery Bradley, who is out for personal reasons, relays Mark Berman of Fox 26 in Houston (Twitter link).

Texas Notes: Wall, Thomas, White, Green, Carlisle

May 8th, 2021 at 11:52am CST by marksuleymanov

With John Wall‘s first season with the Rockets over, Kelly Iko and John Hollinger of The Athletic examined the initial impressions the veteran guard made in Houston, considering whether or not he fits into the team’s future long-term.

Wall was a perennial All-Star with the Wizards early in his career, but a series of injuries cost him significant portions of the past three seasons. As Iko and Hollinger write, Wall has to be commended for the mere fact that he returned to the court and played significant minutes, showing glimpses of his past explosiveness.

However, both scribes also noted that despite those glimpses, Wall appeared to be a fraction of the player he used to be, raising questions about his ability to even remain a starting point guard for the rest of his career. The hefty sum remaining on his contract will make it difficult to trade and therefore, it remains to be seen how the Rockets, or any team, would deploy him moving forward.

Check more news out of the NBA’s Texas squads:

Newly-signed Rockets forward Khyri Thomas contributed 16 points in his first game and expressed gratitude for the opportunity, tweets Mark Berman of FOX 26. “I’m never gonna take this opportunity for granted, whether it’s 10-day or a whole year,” he said. “I’m not trying to go out and be Michael Jordan. Just trying to fit in.”
Having established himself as a long-term keeper for the Spurs, Derrick White is now working on being a more vocal leader, as Spencer Davies of BasketballNews.com writes. “The front office and (head coach Gregg Popovich) have been on me (about) trying to be more of a leader,” White said. “It’s something that I’m continuing to develop in. The more confidence you have, the more you’re doing the right things, the more you can hold other people accountable. So it’s a constant thing that I’m developing, and hopefully I just keep getting better and better at it.”
The Spurs could conceivably make the play-in tournament without doing much winning as the regular season winds down. However, the team is looking to achieve more than just sneaking into the new postseason format, Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News writes.
Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle is taking a nuanced view toward the play-in tournament, which Dallas could find itself participating in without a strong finish to the season. Carlisle said the goal should be to avoid the tournament altogether, but if it’s an option, it should be “embraced” and could be a valuable experience to a young team, tweets Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News.
As the Mavericks have shown a willingness to be shifty and open-minded with their lineups, Callie Caplan of the Dallas Morning News wonders if it’s time to give rookie Josh Green more playing time.

Potential 2021 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

May 7th, 2021 at 10:52am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.

In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.

Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.

Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)
Dennis Smith Jr. (Pistons)
Zach Collins (Trail Blazers)
Malik Monk (Hornets)

Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.

Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.

Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.

John Collins (Hawks)
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.

Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.

Bruce Brown (Nets)
Devonte’ Graham (Hornets)
Kendrick Nunn (Heat)
Duncan Robinson (Heat)
Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors)

Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).

After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.

Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tim Hardaway Jr. Stirs Up Offensively

May 6th, 2021 at 9:58pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Tim Hardaway Jr. has been improving his free agent stock with some high-level offensive performances in recent games. The Mavericks guard erupted for 42 points against Detroit last week and tore up Miami’s defense for 36 points on Wednesday, Callie Caplan of the Dallas Morning News notes. He drained a franchise record-tying 10 three-pointers against the Heat. “When you have been hot like that, had it going, you’re not really focused on any records or anything like that,” said Hardaway, who will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. “The game was just coming to me.”

Kristaps Porzingis is making progress from his sore right knee and Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle expects him to return before the postseason, Tim MacMahon of ESPN tweets. “I anticipate that he will play regular-season games at some point, but I don’t know when,” Carlisle said. The big man has been out since April 29.

Poll: Lakers, Mavs, Or Blazers In Play-In Tournament?

May 4th, 2021 at 8:00am CST by Luke Adams

The Lakers, Mavericks, and Trail Blazers all consider themselves solid playoff teams and potential contenders, but at least one of them will end up in the Western Conference’s play-in tournament in two weeks. With the Jazz, Suns, Clippers, and Nuggets in total control of the West’s top four seeds, the Lakers, Mavs, and Blazers find themselves vying for the fifth and sixth spots — the No. 7 finisher will host the first play-in game against the No. 8 seed.

After a bad loss at home vs. Toronto on Sunday, the Lakers (37-28) bounced back on Monday, pulling out a tight win over Denver and reclaiming the No. 5 seed for the time being. The Blazers (36-29), on the other hand, dropped into seventh place in the West with a loss in Atlanta, while the Mavs (36-28) had the night off.

With the three teams still separated by a single game, every night the rest of the way will have major postseason implications. Here are their remaining schedules:

Lakers: at LAC, at POR, vs. PHX, vs. NYK, vs. HOU, at IND, at NOP (three back-to-backs)
Mavs: at MIA, vs. BKN, vs. CLE, at CLE, at MEM, vs. NOP, vs. TOR, at MIN (two back-to-backs)
Blazers: at CLE, vs. LAL, vs. SAS, vs. HOU, at UTA, at PHX, vs. DEN (two back-to-backs)

On paper, the Mavericks may have the cleanest path to a top-six seed. After their games against the Heat and Nets this week, they won’t face another team in the top eight of either conference. They also have the advantage of holding the tiebreaker if the three teams finished tied in the standings, since they’ll be the Southwest division winner. If they finish tied with just the Lakers, they’d hold that tiebreaker as well, having gone 2-1 vs. L.A. this season.

The Lakers, currently in control of the No. 5 seed, have a huge week coming up, with games on tap against the Clippers, Blazers, Suns, and Knicks. That contest in Portland, on the second night of a back-to-back, will be particularly important — if the Lakers lose that one, they won’t own the tiebreaker against either the Mavs or the Blazers. Still, if they can at least split their next four games, the Lakers should be in reasonably good shape, as they finish their season against three sub-.500 opponents.

The Blazers, meanwhile, have the opportunity to make a run over the next week, especially if they can beat the Lakers at home. They’ll likely need to win at least three of their next four games to have a decent chance to avoid the play-in, since their season ends with a brutal three-game stretch — in Utah, in Phoenix, and at home vs. Denver. Maybe Portland lucks out and faces a couple of those teams when they’re resting players in advance of the playoffs, but given how close the standings are in the upper half of the West, there’s definitely no guarantee that’ll happen.

What do you think? Which team do you expect to end up with the seventh seed, taking part in the play-in? And do you think that team will be in any danger of losing two consecutive games against the likes of the Warriors, Grizzlies, and Spurs, or should they take care of business relatively quickly?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Doncic Nears Technicals Limit

May 3rd, 2021 at 9:20pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Mavericks star point man Luka Doncic is in danger of being assessed a mandatory one-game league suspension, Tim MacMahon of ESPN writes. Doncic has 14 technical fouls this season after getting ejected from Dallas’ 111-99 loss to the Kings on Sunday. If he gets another technical, he’ll reach the league’s threshold of 15 technicals, which triggers a suspension. Doncic promises to avoid that scenario. “I won’t get another one,” he said.