- Mavericks wing Tim Hardaway Jr., who has already been ruled out for the season, will likely undergo surgery to insert a rod in his leg and repair his stress fracture, owner Mark Cuban said this week (Twitter link via Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com). Assuming he goes ahead with that procedure, Hardaway is expected to be recovered well before training camp begins in 2019/20.
With just over two weeks left in the 2018/19 regular season, we’re getting a clearer picture of what this year’s draft order might look like. We’re also getting a pretty clear sense of which of the traded 2019 picks with protections will or won’t change hands this spring.
Using our 2018/19 Reverse Standings as a reference point, here’s our latest check-in on where things stand for those traded 2019 first-rounders, based on their protections.
Locks to change hands:
- Kings‘ pick to Celtics (unprotected)
- Current projection: No. 14
- Note: Pick will instead be sent to Sixers if it jumps to No. 1 (current odds: 0.5%)
- Clippers‘ pick to Celtics (top-14 protected)
- Current projection: No. 22
- Rockets‘ pick to Cavaliers (top-14 protected)
- Current projection: No. 25
- Nuggets‘ pick to Nets (top-12 protected)
- Current projection: No. 27
- Raptors‘ pick to Spurs (top-20 protected)
- Current projection: No. 29
The Raptors‘ and Nuggets‘ have been sure bets to change hands all season long. The Rockets‘ and Clippers‘ picks have now joined them in that group due to impressive surges by both teams — Houston has won 14 of its last 16 games and clinched a playoff spot last night, while the Clippers have lost just one of their last 11 contests. Both of those picks appear likely to end up in the 20s.
The Kings, meanwhile, will definitely lose their first-round selection, but its eventual destination is the only unresolved question for this group of picks. The Sixers will receive it if it’s No. 1 overall; otherwise it will head to the Celtics. As long as Sacramento remains at No. 14 in the lottery order, the odds of the pick jumping all the way up to No. 1 would be just 0.5%, so it’s probably safe to assume it’ll end up in Boston.
Locks to be protected:
- Cavaliers‘ pick to Hawks (top-10 protected)
- Current projection: No. 3
- Bucks‘ pick to Suns (top-3 and 17-30 protected)
- Current projection: No. 30
The Cavaliers are unlikely to fall further than No. 4 in the lottery order, which means the furthest that their pick could slip would be to No. 8. They’ll keep their pick, and will owe the Hawks a top-10 protected pick in 2020.
As for the Bucks, they’ll almost certainly convey the first-rounder they owe to the Suns next season, when it’s just top-7 protected.
Still up in the air:
- Grizzlies‘ pick to Celtics (top-8 protected)
- Current projection: No. 6/7 (tie)
- Current projection: No. 6/7 (tie)
- Mavericks‘ pick to Hawks (top-5 protected)
- Current projection: No. 6/7 (tie)
Currently, the Grizzlies and Mavericks are deadlocked at 29-44, so the final nine games for the two teams could go a long way toward determining whether or not they’ll keep their first-rounders. The Celtics and Hawks could each end up receiving top-10 picks, depending on how things play out.
The Grizzlies would actually prefer to convey that pick this year so that they can move forward with their rebuild without worrying about a future commitment. If they can win some games down the stretch, their odds of giving up that first-rounder should increase drastically — Washington (30-44) and New Orleans (31-44) are both bunched up with Memphis and Dallas in the 6-9 range of the lottery standings.
The difference between finishing sixth and ninth in the lottery order is significant. The No. 6 team will have a 37.2% chance at a top-five pick and a 96.2% chance of remaining in the top eight. The No. 9 team will have just a 20.2% chance of moving up.
This race is one worth keeping a close eye during the final two weeks of the season, though each pick’s owner won’t be officially finalized until lottery night.
Information from RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
Despite speculation before and after his trade from New York to Dallas, Kristaps Porzingis had no intention of playing this season, he said in an interview with Tim MacMahon of ESPN.
Porzingis developed a plan more than a year ago with his brother and agent, Janis Porzingis, and physical therapist Manolo Valdivieso for the best way to recover from a torn ACL. That included sitting out a full season, even though it has been difficult to just watch.
“Oh my god, that’s the hardest thing for me to wake up on game days, go through shootaround with the team and then have to pick a suit to wear for the game,” Porzingis said. “… It’s so weird that I’m not able to — I am able to, but I’m not playing yet. It’s the game day, and I feel like it’s the game day, but you just pick a suit and you wear it and you’re there. And I try to be in the moment when I’m there with the team and help as much as I can without being able to be on the floor, but it’s very, very, very tough. Tougher than I expected.”
Porzingis confirmed that he is fully recovered from the injury to his left knee that derailed last season. He said he feels great and is doing all basketball-related activities except for playing in games. He adds that his power, explosiveness and lateral movement are all testing better now than they did before the injury.
The Mavericks gladly signed on to Porzingis’ plan when they traded for him at the end of January. The team added Valdivieso to its staff and has him working with its top training officials. Porzingis said he is “grateful” that the Mavericks have been so accommodating, which although he didn’t mention it, was a point of contention with the Knicks before the deal.
Porzingis participated in his first practice in more than a year on March 13 and said he is looking forward to more. He admits that he has been tempted to play since three months after the operation, but is focusing on what’s best for his future.
“I can feel the progress already, so it excites me even more,” he added. “It makes me even more eager to be out there on the floor. But I’m going to stick to what I have to stick to, stay patient, and when I’m back, I’m going to be back to 110 percent. At this point, I’ve matured a lot. I’m like, ‘This is the decision I have in my mind, and it’s the right decision.’ I don’t feel the same way every day, but I stick to it.”
Porzingis will be a restricted free agent this summer, but he already sounds committed to the Mavericks, who can offer him $158MM over five years. Porzingis said he wants to help the franchise end its three-year playoff drought and is ready to recruit free agents to Dallas.
Tim Hardaway Jr.‘s first season with the Mavericks will come to an early end, as the team has shut down the veteran wing after he suffered a stress reaction in his left tibia, per Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News.
Hardaway, 27, arrived in Dallas last month along with Kristaps Porzingis, Courtney Lee, and Trey Burke as part of a blockbuster trade with the Knicks. In 19 games (29.4 MPG) for his new team, he averaged 15.5 PPG on .404/.321/.767 shooting.
There are still two more years on Hardaway’s contract after this season, including a 2020/21 player option, so he’s expected to remain a part of the Mavs’ roster and rotation going forward. Since the former Knick previously battled a stress injury in his left leg during the 2017/18 season, he and the team figure to be extra cautious with his latest ailment. However, there’s no indication that he won’t be fully healthy and ready to go for the 2019/20 season.
With Hardaway on the shelf, Justin Jackson and Ryan Broekhoff look like prime candidates to see their roles increase down the stretch. Jackson moved into Dallas’ starting lineup for the first time on Thursday, while Broekhoff logged 17 minutes after playing a total of just six minutes in the team’s previous eight games.
Tim Hardaway Sr. blames Kristaps Porzingis‘ desire to go elsewhere for his son’s trade to Dallas, writes Marc Berman of The New York Post. Tim Hardaway Jr. was sent to Dallas along with Porzingis at the end of January in a deal designed to open up cap room for this summer. He had just signed a four-year, $71MM deal with the Knicks prior to last season and was hoping to be part of the turnaround in New York.
“He was disappointed,’’ Hardaway Sr. said. “He wanted to win there. He wanted to get them in the playoffs (once Porzingis got back) and see where they could go. He wanted the playoffs and have the fans cheering them in the playoffs, but there was the injury. He wasn’t disappointed about moving as much as he was disappointed he couldn’t finish what he was trying to start.’’
Hardaway Sr. had worked with Knicks coach David Fizdale in Miami and was happy that his son got a chance to play for him. He said the Mavericks made several inquiries about a deal before the opportunity with Porzingis arose.
“It’s business,’’ Hardaway Sr. said. “It’s my understanding Porzingis wanted to leave and when Dallas put the deal together, they wanted Tim in the deal. They didn’t want other guys. They wanted Tim a while back. It wouldn’t get approved if Tim wasn’t in the deal.”
There’s more from New York:
- Frank Ntilikina‘s long-awaited return from a groin injury will likely happen Friday, Berman tweets. Fizdale told reporters before tonight’s game that he wants the second-year guard to get one more practice with the G League affiliate in Westchester before putting him in a game. Tonight will mark the 24th straight game he has missed since getting hurt in January.
- The final three weeks of the season may determine Ntilikina’s future with the franchise, according to Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News. Since Ntilikina was sidelined, the Knicks traded for Dennis Smith Jr. and have taken a long look at Emmanuel Mudiay. New York received offers for Ntilikina before the February deadline, Bondy adds, and a source says GM Scott Perry reached out to a member of the Hawks’ front office to see if they were interested. Atlanta remained committed to Trae Young as its point guard, so the talks didn’t go any further.
- Smith will miss his fourth straight game tonight with a bad back, relays Ian Begley of ESPN (Twitter link). Fizdale said Smith may be re-evaluated next week.
Even after a grueling 2018/19 season, Rockets guard James Harden hopes to suit up for Team USA in the 2019 World Cup this September, as he tells Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.
“Of course I want to play,” Harden said. “It’s an opportunity to represent your country, go out there and play basketball. It’s something I love doing. If that opportunity presents itself, I’ll be in. Not everyone gets that opportunity. As a basketball player, that’s one of the highest points you can get for basketball.”
Harden, who previously won gold medals for Team USA in the 2012 Olympics and the 2014 World Cup, is one of 35 players who was named to USA Basketball’s player pool for events between 2018-20. Obviously, not all of those players will get the chance to play on USA’s 12-man roster in the fall, but as the league’s reigning MVP, Harden probably has one of those 12 spots if he wants it.
Here’s more from around the Southwest:
- Ray Allen hasn’t played in an NBA game since 2014, but Rockets GM Daryl Morey hasn’t given up hope that the veteran sharpshooter will decide to make an NBA comeback. Appearing last month on The Rich Eisen Show (video link), Morey referred to Allen as his “white whale,” vowing that he’d sign the 43-year-old to a 10-day contract right now if Allen were interested (hat tip to Alex Kennedy of HoopsHype).
- Longtime Mavericks big man Dirk Nowitzki hasn’t ruled out the possibility of returning for a 22nd NBA season next year. While Tim Cowlishaw of The Dallas Morning News thinks retirement is the more likely outcome, he makes the case that playing another season wouldn’t negatively impact Nowitzki’s legacy.
- In an excellent piece for The Athletic, Blake Murphy takes a deep dive into Bruno Caboclo‘s long, winding road to an NBA rotation role. With Caboclo playing regular minutes for the Grizzlies, Murphy spoke to a handful of his teammates and coaches, as well as draft expert Fran Fraschilla, who famously said that the young forward was “two years away from being two years away” when the Raptors selected him in 2014.
Jalen Brunson‘s play in recent weeks has made the Mavericks look even wiser for dealing second-year guard Dennis Smith Jr. as part of the Kristaps Porzingis blockbuster, according to Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News.
A high second-round pick, the rookie guard out of Villanova has averaged 15.8 PPG and 4.3 APG over the past 10 games for the Mavericks. Brunson, who has become a starter since the trade, signed a partially-guaranteed four-year, $6.1MM contract last summer.
“He does everything right,” Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said of Brunson. “He works at his craft and pays attention to detail. … This guy was the 33rd pick in the draft. Pretty good.”
- Signing Magic free agent center Nikola Vucevic would make the Mavericks an offensive powerhouse but also create defensive concerns, Townsend opines. Dallas will have ample cap room to pursue free agents this summer and have been linked to Vucevic. “Vucevic would be a great fit in terms of being able to space the floor offensively and when you’re talking about potentially (Kristaps) Porzingis out there at the same time and Luka (Doncic), you’re talking about potentially an offensive team that’s unstoppable or about as close as you can get,” Townsend said in a podcast. “And Vucevic can score with his back to the basket he’s really rounded into an all-around player this year. Is he going to protect the rim for them? No, he’s not.”
- Thirteen months after undergoing ACL surgery, Kristaps Porzingis participated in his first 5-on-5 practice for the Mavericks on Wednesday. And according to Dwain Price of Mavs.com, all indications are that it was a very successful return for the big man. “He went through a full practice with no issues, so very encouraging,” head coach Rick Carlisle said. “He’s made tremendous progress with his rehab, with his conditioning, his strength, and (playing 5-on-5) was the next logical progression. He played 3-on-3 yesterday morning with some of the other guys and did extremely well there. So this went really well.” Porzingis still isn’t expected to return to game action until 2019/20.
The Mavericks “quietly” reworked Rick Carlisle‘s contract with the team before the 2018/19 season, according to Marc Stein of The New York Times, who reports (via Twitter) that Carlisle received an extension and a raise at that time.
Carlisle had already been on a five-year contract that was projected to run through the 2021/22 season, but the Mavs extended that deal by one year, keeping him under team control through ’22/23, league sources tell Stein. While the amount of Carlisle’s salary increase was undisclosed, Stein notes that Carlisle’s five-year deal had initially been worth $35MM.
The head coach in Dallas since 2008, Carlisle led the franchise to its first-ever NBA championship in 2011 and has compiled a 464-407 regular season record during his time with the Mavericks.
The last few years have been rough for Carlisle and the Mavs, as the team won just 33 games in 2016/17 and 24 last season. Dallas (27-40) will finish below .500 again this year, but things are trending in the right direction with the additions of promising young prospects Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, and Mavs management and ownership still has total confidence in Carlisle, as his latest deal indicates.
Carlisle is currently the third-longest-tenured head coach in the NBA, trailing only Gregg Popovich (Spurs) and Erik Spoelstra (Heat).
3:35pm: Porzingis practiced with no restrictions today, according to Carlisle (Twitter link via Townsend). However, team owner Mark Cuban said there are still no plans to return to game action for Dallas this season (Twitter link).
9:55am: Kristaps Porzingis could participate in his first practice with the Mavericks today, according to Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News.
It’s a surprising development after coach Rick Carlisle said last week that the prospects for Porzingis being ready to practice before the end of the season were “doubtful.” However, the 23-year-old has been able to move through the rehab process since being acquired from the Knicks at the end of January. He showed few lingering effects of last year’s ACL injury as he played a 1-on-1 game Friday against Kostas Antetokounmpo, then moved onto a 3-on-3 workout yesterday.
“KP is doing very well,” Carlisle said. “I watched him play a live 3-on-3 game this morning and do a lot of spectacular things and a lot of simple things with a great degree of specialization. The prospect of him being with us on the court is extremely exciting. But we’re not there yet. But he’s ramping it up and he’ll be practicing with us sometime soon.”
Although there are still no plans to use Porzingis in a game this season, there is plenty of optimism in Dallas over the latest developments. In a TNT interview, Porzingis said he has been “feeling great” and intends to practice today “with no restrictions at all.”
“I’m super-excited about the opportunity to be back on the court soon,” he said. “I’m getting the itch. I’ve been getting the itch for a looong time to get back on the court. And now that I’m actually with the team, a hundred percent, I just can’t wait.”
Seeing Porzingis healthy and productive again would be reassuring to the Mavericks as they head into a summer where he will be eligible for a five-year extension worth up to $158MM. It also sends a message to any free agents Dallas might be chasing with an estimated $30MM in cap room.
The Mavericks are 14th in the Western Conference with a 27-40 record, but are hoping to quickly build a contender based around Porzingis, rookie Luka Doncic, and a splashy free agent signing.
“I like everything I see in him,” Carlisle said of Porzingis. “I like the disposition, I like the mental approach, I like the attention to detail, I like the seriousness, I like the detailed approach to developing his craft and skill. And it’s certainly exciting.”