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Checking In On Protected 2019 First Round Picks

February 26th, 2019 at 11:03am CST by Luke Adams

With only about a month and a half left in the 2018/19 regular season, we’re getting a clearer picture of what this year’s draft order might look like. We’re also getting a clearer sense of which of the traded 2019 picks with protections will or won’t change hands this spring.

Using our 2018/19 Reverse Standings as a reference point, here’s our latest check-in on where things stand for those traded 2019 first-rounders, based on their protections.

Locks to change hands:

Kings‘ pick to Celtics or Sixers (unprotected)
- Current projection: No. 14
Nuggets‘ pick to Nets (top-12 protected)
- Current projection: No. 27
Raptors‘ pick to Spurs (top-20 protected)
- Current projection: No. 29

The Nets and Spurs may not be thrilled by how well the Nuggets and Raptors are playing this season, since it assures those first-round picks will fall in the mid-to-late 20s. But Brooklyn and San Antonio can at least be confident that they’ll actually receive those selections this year, which will allow them to better prepare for the draft.

As for the Kings‘ pick, it will almost certainly end up with the Celtics, but the Sixers will still be keeping an eye on it — if Sacramento ends up in the lottery, there will be a very slim chance of that pick vaulting up to No. 1 overall. In that scenario, Philadelphia would receive it and Boston would instead get the 76ers’ first-rounder.

At this point, the far more likely scenario is the Sixers keeping their own pick and the Celtics getting a Kings pick in the teens.

Locks to be protected:

Cavaliers‘ pick to Hawks (top-10 protected)
- Current projection: No. 3
Bucks‘ pick to Suns (top-3 and 17-30 protected)
- Current projection: No. 30

The Cavaliers have been playing better lately, but there’s still essentially no way their pick will fall out of the top 10 — there are 13 games between Cleveland and Miami, the 10th team in the reverse standings. So the Cavs can rest assured that they’ll retain their 2019 first-rounder. Subsequently, they’ll owe the Hawks their top-10 protected 2020 first-round pick.

On the other end of the draft, it’s the Bucks‘ success this season that guarantees they’ll keep their selection. The pick they agreed to trade to Phoenix has unusual reverse-protection criteria that provides only a small window for the Suns to snatch it. Since that pick won’t change hands this season, the Bucks will owe the Suns their top-7 protected first-rounder in 2020.

Still up in the air:

Grizzlies‘ pick to Celtics (top-8 protected)
- Current projection: No. 6
Mavericks‘ pick to Hawks (top-5 protected)
- Current projection: No. 8
Clippers‘ pick to Celtics (top-14 protected)
- Current projection: No. 19
Rockets‘ pick to Cavaliers (top-14 protected)
- Current projection: No. 21

Of these picks, the Grizzlies‘ and Mavericks‘ selections are the most intriguing. Both project as top-10 picks, and neither has full top-10 protection. For now, Memphis appear likely to keep its pick rather than sending it to the Celtics, while the Hawks have a good chance to receive Dallas’ pick. That outlook could quickly change though, if the Grizzlies get on a hot streak and/or the Mavs slump.

It’s worth noting that the new lottery format could be a wild-card factor here. Let’s say the Grizzlies finish seventh in the reverse standings. In previous years, the likelihood that their pick would slide to ninth from that spot would be less than 2%. This year, those odds would increase to over 14%.

Similarly, suppose the Mavericks finish seventh in the reverse standings. Under the old system, the Hawks could be confident of receiving the Mavs’ selection, since Dallas would only have a 15% of moving up into the top three and retaining the pick. In the new system, those odds are all the way up to 32%.

Meanwhile, the Clippers and Rockets will surrender their first-rounders if they earn playoff spots. After some early-season struggles, Houston looks like a fairly safe postseason bet at this point, meaning the Cavaliers should be confident they’ll get the Rockets’ pick. The Clippers, who moved up to seventh in the West on Monday, are less certain of a spot, so the Celtics will be closely watching the playoff race.

Information from RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

And-Ones: Cuban, Draft, Maledon, 2K League

February 25th, 2019 at 7:45pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban doesn’t mind lowering the minimum draft age from 19 to 18, but points out that it creates another set of issues, as he explained to Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News.

Cuban notes that most players out of high school don’t have general life skills, such as writing a check or signing a lease. He also sees the influence of AAU coaches and teams becoming even more pervasive if the age minimum drops.

“The really bad unintended consequence is you’re going to see AAU programs and parents push harder to get kids featured, maybe at the expense of their education, maybe at the expense of really learning how to play basketball because they’ve got coaches that are telling him, ‘Yeah, he’s got a chance to be a ‘none-and-done,'” Cuban said.

We have more from around the basketball world:

League executives are already dreading the extra time, money, and analysis it will take to scout high school prospects, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer writes in a lengthy piece on the pros and cons of reducing the draft age minimum to 18. Eliminating the one-and-done prospects could make it tougher for lottery teams to land a marquee player, since there will likely be more steals and more busts in the draft. A system that would allow players to be selected in the draft without losing college eligibility could help the process, O’Connor adds.
French point guard Theo Maledon, a Tony Parker protege, could be the top international prospect in the 2020 draft. ESPN’s Mike Schmitz takes a closer look at next year’s international group and notes that the 17-year-old Maledon is now the starting point guard for ASVEL, the club Parker oversees as president. ASVEL is the first-place team among 18 in France’s top league. Maledon could become the second-ever 18-year-old EuroLeague starter, following in the footsteps of Luka Doncic, when ASVEL moves up to the prestigious league next season, Schmitz adds.
The NBA 2K League will begin its 18-week season on April 2 and conclude with the Finals on August 3, according to a league press release. All regular-season games will take place at the NBA 2K League Studio in Long Island City, New York, and will be live-streamed on Twitch.

Carlisle To Evaluate Roster For The Rest Of The Season

February 24th, 2019 at 10:28am CST by Arthur Hill

The Mavericks are facing “big decisions” this offseason about the future of the team, coach Rick Carlisle tells Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News. Star rookie Luka Doncic and newly acquired Kristaps Porzingis will be part of the foundation, and Carlisle plans to use the rest of the regular season to evaluate the rest of the roster. “It’s a hard schedule, and we’re a little depleted because K.P.’s not playing yet and we certainly want to do some things this summer,” Carlisle said. “But the guys that we have, we’ve got to find out what they’re all about.”

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Southwest Division

February 22nd, 2019 at 9:58pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Southwest Division:

Maxi Kleber, 27, Mavericks, PF (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2.19MM deal in 2017
Kleber has received increased playing time since the blockbuster Kristaps Porzingis deal with the Knicks. He’s averaging 10.2 PPG and 4.8 RPG in 25.7 MPG as a starter this month while making 36% of his 3-point attempts. Kleber would be a restricted free agent if Dallas extends a $1.82MM qualifying offer. With loads of cap space to spare, the Mavs have plenty of incentive to make that modest offer for a rotation player, even though he’d probably move back to the bench next season when Porzingis is ready to play again.

Kenneth Faried, Rockets, 29, PF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $917K deal in 2019
Clint Capela‘s return from a thumb injury this week will reduce the Manimal’s minutes. He’ll still play a valuable role for Houston, where he has revived his career after getting bought out by Brooklyn. After appearing in just 12 games with the Nets, Faried has averaged 15.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG and 1.0 BPG in 13 outings with the Rockets. It seems Faried has been in the league a long time, but he’s still just 29. In an era of stretch fours and fives, it’s questionable whether anyone views Faried as a starter going forward. He should still get a multi-year deal somewhere as a second-unit difference maker.

Justin Holiday, Grizzlies, 29, SF (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $9MM deal in 2017
Holiday was acquired from the Bulls when the Grizzlies still harbored hopes of making the playoffs. He didn’t move the needle at all before Memphis went into sell mode prior to the trade deadline. He’s averaged 8.2 PPG on 34.8% shooting (29.8% on 3-point tries) in 28.5 MPG with the Grizzlies. Holiday has posted below average PERs throughout his career, which doesn’t help his cause in the analytics era. Holiday has enough of a resume to land on someone’s bench next season but his days as a starter are likely over after this season.

Elfrid Payton, Pelicans, 25, PG (Down) — Signed to a one-year, $3MM deal in 2018
Payton inked a short-term, ‘show me’ contract after the former lottery pick flopped in Orlando and Phoenix. He was given the opportunity to replace free agent Rajon Rondo in the lineup but has spent a majority of the season in the trainer’s room. He’s appeared in just 19 games, with a right ankle sprain sidelining him for the last nine games heading into Friday’s action. The Pelicans lost six of the last eight games that he played. Payton will probably have to settle for another one-year deal this summer, this time in a backup role.

Dante Cunningham, Spurs, 31, SF (Down)– Signed to a one-year, $2.49MM deal in 2018
Cunningham has seen spot duty with the Spurs, averaging 15.9 MPG in 53 appearances. He’s managed to stay in the league for a decade, though he’s usually the No. 5 option at the offensive end. He accepts his limited role and provides some defense, so it’s possible he’ll squeeze out another veteran’s minimum deal with San Antonio or another playoff contender. But being on the wrong side of 30 means he’ll probably have to wait until late in the free agency period for an offer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stein’s Latest: Antetokounmpo, Vucevic, Lakers

February 19th, 2019 at 10:00pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Plenty of teams are hoping for the chance to sign Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Warriors, in particular, have thought about pairing him and Stephen Curry should Kevin Durant leave in free agency, Marc Stein of the New York Times writes in his latest newsletter.

Antetokounmpo would have his pick of suitors on an open market, but as Stein notes, the Greek Freak may never make it to free agency. Antetokounmpo loves Milwaukee and the Bucks have to feel they have a chance at getting him to sign a super-max extension with the team during the summer of 2020—a year prior to him hitting the open market.

Yet, the Warriors will always swing big if given just the tiniest of chances. Antetokounmpo and Curry have selected one another first overall in back-to-back All-Star drafts and the two share a mutual admiration for each other, Stein notes.

Stein, who was honored over the weekend by the Basketball Hall of Fame as a Curt Gowdy Media award recipient, has more in his latest newsletter. Here are some highlights:

The Mavericks‘ interest in Nikola Vucevic may be overstated, Stein hears, adding that he doesn’t get the sense that Dallas will pursue the big man. The Mavs were rumored to have interest in Vucevic as a free agent target this summer.
The Lakers have the ninth-hardest remaining schedule and a playoff birth is no guarantee. “It’s going to be tough, but we shouldn’t want it any other way,” LeBron James said. “I look forward to the challenge — and I’m getting healthy, too.”
Charles Barkley wonders if the advent of super teams will prompt small market owners to try to take back control in future CBA talks. “I hear all these clowns on TV talking about, ‘It’s great that all these players are exuding these powers,’” Barkley told a small group of reporters prior to All-Star weekend. “Let me tell you guys something: Workers ain’t never going to have power over their ownership. Ever. Now it might work for a couple guys here or there, but in the history of the world, no workers have ever overtaken the people who own a business. And when these guys are sitting at home locked out in a couple years, I want y’all to remember I told y’all that.”

Schlenk: Hawks Would Have Drafted Luka At No. 3

February 18th, 2019 at 8:55am CST by Luke Adams

The Hawks participated in the biggest draft-day trade of 2018, agreeing to move down two spots from No. 3 to No. 5 in a deal with the Mavericks. The trade will have a significant impact on both franchises going forward, with third overall pick Luka Doncic looking like a franchise player in Dallas while No. 5 pick Trae Young appears to be a foundational piece in Atlanta.

In an appearance on Adrian Wojnarowski’s Woj Pod, Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk revisited that blockbuster deal, explaining the thinking behind the move (hat tip to RealGM). According to Schlenk, Atlanta had been preparing to select Doncic at No. 3 – even tentatively letting agent Bill Duffy know when Doncic’s introductory press conference would take place – before the Mavs improved their trade offer on draft day.

“Not a lot of people know this,” Schlenk said. “If we would have stayed at three, we would have taken Luka. We had worked with his agent, he did a physical for us that morning in New York. … But then Dallas came in an hour or so before the draft. I told them all along that it would take another lottery pick for us to slide back, and that’s when the conversations got started.”

The price to move up two spots in 2018 was the Mavericks’ top-five protected 2019 first-rounder. While that pick wasn’t necessarily assured of becoming a lottery pick – and still isn’t – Schlenk told Wojnarowski that the work done by the Hawks’ analytics staff made him and the front office feel good about that selection.

“For us, what made (the trade) make sense is our analytics staff was projecting Dallas to finish eighth (in the reverse standings) this year,” Schlenk said.

As the Hawks’ GM observes, that projection looks pretty accurate so far — Dallas currently has the NBA’s ninth-worst record. Still, with draft experts somewhat bearish on the 2019 class as a whole, the Mavs will likely be fine with handing over a top-10 pick. Surrendering that selection gave them the opportunity to secure their first bona fide star since Dirk Nowitzki‘s decline began.

Silver Compliments Mavericks On Handling Of Front Office Scandal

February 17th, 2019 at 11:39am CST by Arthur Hill

Commissioner Adam Silver said the Mavericks have made significant progress in reforming their front office since an embarrassing workplace misconduct scandal was made public last year, writes Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News.

Silver traveled to Dallas on February 6 to assess the current state of the organization. He spoke with almost every team employee in an effort to see whether the reforms that were installed have made a difference.

“At least what was reported directly to me and through the organization is that it was a complete sea change in culture on the business side with the Mavericks, that Cynthia Marshall was getting the highest possible grades, along with the new senior management team that she brought in,” Silver said. “I think many employees, longtime employees there, felt somewhat liberated, while some felt still, honestly, a bit scarred. That they thought systems, most importantly, had been put in place … to ensure that they don’t end up happening ever again in a situation like that.”

“I got a report directly from Cynthia and from Kathy,” Silver said. “Mark is absolutely meeting his commitment and has told me he’s doing far more than that. That is his personal decision and not something he’s seeking publicity around, so I won’t talk more about that.”

In addition to changes in Dallas, Silver said the incident inspired the other NBA teams to assess their management practices to make sure the league never has to deal with another scandal of this type.

Dirk Nowitzki Not Ruling Out Playing Next Season

February 16th, 2019 at 12:23pm CST by marksuleymanov

In his record-setting 21st season with the same NBA team, Dirk Nowitzki is being treated like a player who will retire at season’s end, but the Mavericks legend is not fully committed to the idea.

Speaking to reporters, including Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News, at NBA All-Star Media in Charlotte Saturday, Nowitzki said he will re-evaluate how he feels after the 2018/19 season before deciding on retirement.

“It’s been humbling, even though I haven’t said this will be it,” Nowitzki said. “I’m going to wait and see the last couple of weeks, how my body feels and if I continue to see improvement and I’m still having fun, we’ll see.”

Nowitzki, 40, was added to the All-Star game along with Dwyane Wade — who confirmed the 2018/19 campaign will be his last — in honor of his likely Hall of Fame career. The German big man missed the started of the season due to ankle surgery but has carved out a role off Dallas’ bench. In 28 games, Nowitzki is averaging 4.7 PPG and 1.7 RPG in 11 minutes per contest — all career-lows.

While the production is a far cry from his MVP-type production a decade earlier, Nowitzki remains a valuable veteran in the Mavericks’ locker room. Nowitzki has served as a mentor for fellow European and Rookie of the Year candidate Luka Doncic. After Dallas acquired Kristaps Porzingis from the Knicks, Nowitzki expressed excitement in mentoring the fellow 7’0″-plus European.

If Nowitzki returns for another season, it would likely be in a role similar to the one he has played this year. The appeal of playing alongside a more seasoned Doncic and a healthy Porzingis — who is not expected to play in 2018/19 as he rehabs from ACL surgery — could entice Nowitzki into one more season.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Northwest Division

February 15th, 2019 at 8:59pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Northwest Division:

Tyler Lydon, Nuggets, 22, PF (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $3.45MM deal in 2017
Lydon was the 24th overall pick in 2017 and acquired from Utah in a draft-day deal. He didn’t make much of an impression as a rookie, as the Nuggets declined his third-year option in October. Lydon has appeared in 21 games this season, mostly during garbage time. At the G League level, Lydon has averaged 5.3 three-point attempts and made 36.7%. He’s also rebounded well (8.5 in 31.3 MPG). He’ll be seeking a fresh start this summer, most likely with a rebuilding team that can offer him a greater opportunity.

Anthony Tolliver, Timberwolves, 33, PF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $5.75MM deal in 2018
Tolliver carved out a steady role under former Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy and delivered a career year last season. He averaged 8.9 PPG in 22.2 MPG and shot 43.6% from distance, and when he hit the free agent market, he drew interest from the Clippers, Mavericks, and Sixers as well as the Timberwolves. It hasn’t gone well in Minnesota, as Tolliver completely dropped out of Tom Thibodeau’s rotation in mid-November. He’s seen more action under Ryan Saunders but hasn’t made an impact. He’ll likely have to settle for the veteran’s minimum this summer to stay in the league.

Nerlens Noel, Thunder, 24, PF (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $3.74MM deal in 2018
Noel has a player option worth less than $2MM and it’s likely he’ll decline it and take his chances on the open market. Noel has carved out a steady bench role with the Thunder and provided a defensive presence, along with an occasional scoring outburst. His Defensive Box Plus/Minus rating, according to Basketball-Reference, is an outstanding 5.8. He posted a 22-point, 13-rebound stat line in 22 minutes in a loss to New Orleans on Thursday. Noel, the sixth overall pick in 2013, has revived his career to some extent after a lost season in Dallas.

Al-Farouq Aminu, Trail Blazers, 28, PF (Up) — Signed to a four-year, $30MM deal in 2015
The quintessential glue guy, Aminu never puts up big numbers but he does a little bit of everything for a playoff-bound team in the West. He’s averaging a career-best 7.9 RPG in 29.0 MPG and his defensive versatility makes him indispensable on a team lacking in stoppers. He’s also become a respectable – if not prolific – 3-point shooter (35.8%). It certainly wouldn’t be surprising if Aminu re-signs with Portland but he’ll have several suitors in July and shouldn’t have any trouble getting a multi-year deal.

Royce O’Neale, Jazz, 25, SF (Up)– Signed to a three-year, $3.8MM deal in 2017
O’Neale, undrafted out of Baylor, has been a rotation player all season for Utah. He’s often the the last offensive option on the court but he’s pumped up his production this month. He averaged 13.8 PPG and 4.3 RPG in the last four games prior to the All-Star break. He’s shooting an outstanding 43.9% from long range and advanced defensive metrics are also kind to him (2.2 Defensive Box Plus/Minus). O’Neale’s $1.62MM salary for next season isn’t fully guaranteed until next January but the Jazz might do that a lot sooner and perhaps even negotiate an extension with the swingman.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Online Betting Site Declares Doncic Rookie Of The Year

February 13th, 2019 at 10:58pm CST by Arthur Hill

An online gambling site has stopped taking wagers on the Rookie of the Year race, figuring Mavericks guard Luka Doncic already has the award wrapped up, relays Joey Hayden of The Dallas Morning News. David Strauss of MyBookie said the site is ready to pay out more than $150K to bettors who put money on Doncic.