- Kemba Walker appears to be the Mavericks‘ most realistic option in free agency, Marc Stein of the New York Times said in a recent radio interview in Dallas. Stein said the Mavs are “legitimately intrigued” by Walker, and he believes they will get a meeting with him when free agency begins in July.
As ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported this morning, Nets guard Allen Crabbe became the latest veteran to exercise a player option for the 2019/20 season. Crabbe is one of six players who has opted into the final year of his contract since the regular season ended, joining Jeff Teague, Dwight Howard, Kent Bazemore, C.J. Miles, and Bismack Biyombo.
[RELATED: Player Option Decisions For 2019/20]
That group of players picking up their options figures to grow in the coming weeks. Marvin Williams has already indicated he’ll opt in, and guys like Hassan Whiteside ($27.1MM), Tyler Johnson ($19.2MM), and Patrick Patterson ($5.7MM), among others, figure to do so too.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are a handful of star players who are locks to opt out. All year, we’ve talked about Kevin Durant ($31.5MM), Kawhi Leonard ($21.3MM), Kyrie Irving ($21.3MM), Jimmy Butler ($19.8MM), and Khris Middleton ($13MM) as if they’re free-agents-to-be, since it wouldn’t make sense for them to pick up their player options instead of securing more lucrative, longer-term deals in free agency.
Not all of the players with 2019/20 options are facing easy decisions though. In some cases, it’s not entirely clear yet whether or not those options will be exercised.
Let’s take a closer look at several of the player option decisions that will be worth monitoring before free agency officially gets underway:
- Al Horford, Celtics ($30,123,015): Only a handful of NBA players earn salaries in excess of $30MM, and on the surface, it doesn’t seem like Horford necessarily belongs in that group — he’ll turn 33 in June, battled nagging injuries this season, and put up relatively modest numbers for a starting center (13.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.2 APG). However, his performance in the postseason has shown once again why Horford is so valuable to the Celtics. His versatility and high basketball IQ makes him one of the few players capable of slowing down Giannis Antetokounmpo. And besides being a linchpin on defense, he’s a tremendous weapon in the pick-and-pop game on offense. If he were to opt out, he wouldn’t get $30MM per year on a long-term deal, but it wouldn’t be at all shocking to see him get, say, $20MM annually on a three-year contract. That could be a win for both him and the cap-strapped Celtics.
- Jonas Valanciunas, Grizzlies ($17,617,976): Valanciunas doesn’t have the same sort of hidden value as Horford – or as pricey an option – but he’ll face a similar dilemma. Does it make more sense to pick up a player option that locks in a favorable one-year salary or to opt out to secure a longer-term deal with a higher total value? Valanciunas was probably the most important asset the Grizzlies acquired in their trade of longtime franchise center Marc Gasol, so I think they’d be willing to invest long term in the former lottery pick.
- Marc Gasol, Raptors ($25,595,700): Like Horford, Gasol’s value on the court extends beyond his numbers — particularly the ones he has put up since his trade to Toronto. Plus, if he believes Kawhi Leonard will leave the Raptors in free agency, it might make sense for Gasol to look for the exit ramp as well by declining this option and trying to secure one last multiyear deal. On the other hand, at age 34, Gasol might have trouble exceeding his option salary even over the span of a new two-year contract. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t opt in and force the Raptors to make the decision on what to do with his expiring deal.
- James Ennis, Sixers ($1,845,301): Ennis signed a minimum salary contract with the Rockets last summer, then was traded to Philadelphia in a salary-dump deal at the deadline. Despite that unflattering series of events, he’s now playing a key rotation role for the Sixers in the postseason and has made 57.1% of his shots in seven playoff games, including a staggering 82.6% of his two-pointers. Ostensibly a three-and-D wing, Ennis should have no problem securing offers on the open market this summer, so it would probably be in his best interest to opt out to see if he can do better than the minimum. The same thinking applies to Thunder center Nerlens Noel, another veteran who has a minimum salary player option for 2019/20.
- Dwight Powell, Mavericks ($10,259,375): Powell enjoyed his best season in 2018/19, recording 10.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and a .597 FG% in a part-time role for the Mavericks. His $10MM+ option looks fairly player-friendly for someone who has never averaged more than 21.6 MPG, but team owner Mark Cuban suggested in a radio appearance last month that Dallas plans to extend Powell for multiple seasons. If he knows that sort of Mavs offer will await him in free agency, Powell could have reason to opt out (opting in and signing an extension would also be a possibility).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Mavericks plan on pursuing Khris Middleton and Kemba Walker this offseason with the hope of landing one of the All-Stars, as Marc Stein of the New York Times details in the latest edition of his newsletter.
Stein cautions that Dallas is still laying out its free agency plans. The franchise is prioritizing shooting, athleticism, and veteran presence as it looks to surround Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis with an improved squad.
The Mavs have slightly under $46MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season against a projected $109MM salary cap. That figure doesn’t include Dwight Powell‘s $10.3MM player option nor does it include any of the team’s cap holds. Realistically, the team’s available space could be capped around $30MM, as I previously detailed.
However, should Dallas find themselves with the need for additional cap space, the organization could carve out room by using the stretch provision on Courtney Lee, as Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors explains. Other options included agreeing to a long-term deal with Powell that lowers his annual cap hit or trading away Tim Hardaway Jr., something that would likely mean attaching an asset to him.
There’s no indication yet about whether Dallas will be able to land a top player in free agency. Stein adds the Mavs may not get near players like Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, or Kyrie Irving, and also writes that Nikola Vucevic – who has previously been mentioned as a Mavs target – isn’t high on their free-agent wish list.
Sixers star Joel Embiid expects to play more minutes in the conference semifinals, even though he is still bothered by tendinitis in his left knee, writes Dave McMenamin of ESPN. Embiid averaged just 24.8 minutes in five first-round games against the Nets and was often a literal game-time decision. The limited minutes make his line for the series – 24.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.8 blocks per night – look even more impressive.
“It’s still not there. It’s still trying to get better,” Embiid said at today’s shootaround. “But that’s an issue that’s going to be there at least all playoffs until I actually get some real time to get some rest and work on myself. … But, we did a good job managing it. Obviously I only averaged about 24 minutes last series, so this one I’m definitely going to need way more than that.”
Embiid isn’t on the injured list as the series begins, so the Sixers are confident about his prospects. He has been dealing with knee issues for the past two months, missing 14 of 24 games regular season games after the All-Star break.
“It’s hard because I’m known for playing through anything and pushing, pushing it,” Embiid said. “And in some situations like Game 3, I couldn’t go because it was too much. But like I said, I just got to keep managing it and see how I feel and then go from there.”
There’s more from Philadelphia:
- The Sixers have another injury concern in forward Mike Scott, McMenamin notes in the same story. Scott was wearing a walking boot today because of a heel contusion and plantar fasciitis in his right foot. Coach Brett Brown indicated that rookie Zhaire Smith may have an expanded role while Scott is sidelined.
- Representatives for Jimmy Butler met with Sixers GM Elton Brand before and after a November deal that brought him from Minnesota to express his interest in a long-term contract, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic. Butler is expected to opt out of a $19.8MM salary for next season and test the free agent market.
- The Nets will target Sixers forward Tobias Harris in free agency, but a report Friday indicates that the competition for his services will be intense, relays Brian Lewis of The New York Post. The Grizzlies, Jazz and Mavericks will all consider pursuing the Long Island native, and the Sixers will have his Bird rights, meaning they can offer more years and higher raises than any other team. Lewis adds that Harris’ performance against the Nets in their playoff series increased Brooklyn’s desire to sign him.
Tobias Harris bet on himself by turning down a four-year, $80MM contract extension from the Clippers last summer. That decision will pay off in the open market in July, as Shams Charania of The Athletic names several teams likely to show interest in the Sixers forward.
League executives expect the Grizzlies, Jazz, Mavericks and Nets to explore making a run at Harris, Charania hears. Harris has already indicated that he’d strongly consider remaining put, as he told Charania last month.
“It would be selfish of me to not come into this situation with an open mind to make this work for the long term,” he said. “That’s where my mindset is at. I’m a loyal guy to where I am, and if I feel that loyalty back, that is how I operate.”
Philadelphia, of course, can pay Harris more than any other team. He will be eligible to sign a five-year, $189.7MM contract with the Sixers or a four-year, $140.6MM deal with another franchise. Harris is averaging 17.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 4.2 APG thus far in the postseason.
The most surprising team on Charania’s list is the rebuilding Grizzlies, though adding Harris to a team with Mike Conley, Jaren Jackson Jr. and another high draft pick might be enough to get them back to the postseason.
Utah’s brass knows it has to make changes after another early-round exit. Adding Harris to a mix that already includes Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert would give the Jazz a much-needed offensive boost.
It’s no secret that the Mavericks want to add another big piece to complement Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, while the Nets have plenty of cap space and want to bring in top-shelf free agents.
As we’ve mentioned multiple times throughout the 2018/19 NBA league year, there’s a widespread belief among people around the NBA that Kevin Durant will leave the Warriors for the Knicks in free agency. However, uncertainty about Durant’s future has increased in recent months, Kevin O’Connor writes in his latest article for The Ringer.
As O’Connor explains, Durant seems more likely to go to the Knicks if Kyrie Irving goes with him, and there’s no guarantee that Irving will leave the Celtics, given how well things have gone in Boston over the last several weeks. LeBron James‘ struggles during his first year as a Laker could also serve as a cautionary tale for Durant.
One front office executive who spoke to O’Connor suggests that everything should be considered on the table for Durant, since the Warriors forward has proven to be unpredictable in the past.
O’Connor’s piece, which focuses primarily on the Clippers, features a few more items of note, so let’s round them up…
- The Clippers continue to be viewed as the more likely destination than the Lakers if Kawhi Leonard decides to return home to Southern California, though O’Connor writes that it would be “foolish” to rule out the Lakers.
- The odds of both Durant and Leonard joining the Clippers are slim, but the team could theoretically make it happen based on its cap situation. As O’Connor details, if the Clippers trade Danilo Gallinari and renounce all their free agents except Ivica Zubac, they’d have more than enough room for two max contracts, and would be able to go over the cap to re-sign Zubac.
- Of course, in that scenario, the Clippers wouldn’t be able to take money back for Gallinari, which would limit their potential trade partners. Still, O’Connor has spoken to front office executives who don’t think it’d be too challenging to find a deal for Gallinari, especially if the Clips are willing to attach a future pick. O’Connor cites the Nets, Mavericks, Hawks, Jazz, and Pacers as a few teams that might be fits for the veteran forward in that scenario.
The Knicks will miss out on a valuable pick in this year’s draft because of a trade former team president Phil Jackson made nearly five years ago, according to Marc Berman of The New York Post. New York would own the 31st pick, which is coveted because it offers a chance at a potential first-round talent without a guaranteed salary, if Jackson hadn’t traded it to the Sixers.
The Knicks wanted to unload Travis Outlaw‘s salary after training camp in 2014. Philadelphia was willing to offer Arnett Moultrie in a deal that trimmed roughly $4MM off New York’s luxury tax bill, but the Knicks had to throw in a future second-rounder. Both players were waived shortly after the trade was completed.
The 31st pick now belongs to the Nets, who acquired it last season as part of the price for taking Jahlil Okafor from the Sixers. Berman states that the Knicks would like to trade back into the early part of the second round and speculates that they might be willing to part with Frank Ntilikina to get there.
There’s more from New York:
- Knicks management views the two first-rounders the team received from the Mavericks in the Kristaps Porzingis deal as trade chips, Berman adds. If Dallas moves into the top five in this year’s lottery, the picks would convey no earlier than 2022 and 2024, with the later one having top-10 protection. If the Mavs stay at No. 9, this year’s selection will go to Atlanta, and New York will be on track to get Dallas’ picks in 2021 and 2023.
- The development of a few young players kept this season from being a total loss, writes Steve Popper of Newsday. In addition to the rookie trio of Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson and Allonzo Trier, GM Scott Perry singled out Emmanuel Mudiay, Noah Vonleh and Damyean Dotson during a news conference this week. “We have a guy like Damyean Dotson,” Perry told reporters. “Lance Thomas said in his exit, ‘Hey, he’s going to be a leader on your team. When he talks the guys on the team all listen to him.’”
- With a high lottery pick guaranteed and enough cap room to offer two max contracts, the future appears bright in New York, but owner James Dolan’s poor reputation around the league could be the biggest obstacle toward rebuilding, according to David Waldstein and Kelly Whiteside of The New York Times.
- The Mavericks are now heading into a pivotal offseason for the organization, Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News writes. Dallas struck a major trade to acquire Kristaps Porzingis, a restricted free agent this July, in a shocking deal before the trade deadline. “It’s going to be a very interesting and opportunistic summer,” Mavs president Donnie Nelson said, according to Townsend. “We certainly are positioned to make some noise… We’re ridin’ the Luka wave and the Kristaps wave and trying to surround these guys with the right young core.”
Tim Hardaway Jr. underwent surgery on his left tibia today, according to a Mavericks team press release. He had been dealing with a stress injury and he’s expected to resume basketball activities before the start of training camp.
Hardaway Jr. was sent to Dallas as part of the Kristaps Porzingis deal at this year’s trade deadline. He’s set to make approximately $20MM next season, which is currently the highest figure for any player on the Mavs. Dallas has under $46MM in guaranteed salary on the books for the 2019/20 campaign against a projected $109MM salary cap (though with cap holds and Dwight Powell‘s player option, available space could be capped around $30MM).
The franchise will look to use its cap space to put talent around Porzingis and rookie phenomenon Luka Doncic this summer. Hardaway, who has two seasons left on his deal, including a player option of $18.76MM for 2020/21, appears likely to remain with the team regardless of any additions due to his rehabilitation timeline and cumbersome contract.
Dirk Nowitzki‘s 21-year career with the Mavericks came to an end this season, signaling the end of an era in Dallas. But after a pair of trades – one on 2018’s draft night and one leading up to the 2019 deadline – the Mavs believe they’ve identified a pair of young building blocks capable of leading the franchise for years to come. In addition to Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavs are also armed with some cap flexibility entering the 2019 offseason.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Mavericks financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:
Guaranteed Salary
- Tim Hardaway ($20,025,127)
- Courtney Lee ($12,759,670)
- Luka Doncic ($7,683,360)
- Justin Jackson ($3,280,920)
- Jalen Brunson ($1,416,852)
- Ray Spalding ($708,426) — Waived
- Kostas Antetokounmpo (two-way) 1
- Daryl Macon (two-way) 1
- Total: $45,874,355
Player Options
- Dwight Powell ($10,259,375)
- Total: $10,259,375
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Ryan Broekhoff ($1,416,852) 2
- Total: $1,416,852
Restricted Free Agents
- Kristaps Porzingis ($4,485,665 qualifying offer / $17,091,162 cap hold): Bird rights
- Dorian Finney-Smith ($1,931,189 qualifying offer / $1,931,189 cap hold): Bird rights
- Maxi Kleber ($1,818,486 qualifying offer / $1,818,486 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total: $20,840,837
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Dirk Nowitzki ($9,500,000): Retiring
- J.J. Barea ($7,050,615): Bird rights
- Trey Burke ($1,618,486): Early Bird rights
- Devin Harris ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
- Salah Mejri ($1,618,486): Bird rights
- Total: $21,406,073 3
Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000
Offseason Cap Outlook
- Realistic cap room projection: $29.33MM. This scenario would see the Mavericks retain all their players on guaranteed contracts, including Powell (if he opts in), along with the cap holds for Porzingis, Finney-Smith, and Kleber. Once they use up their space, they could go over the cap to re-sign their three RFAs.
- The Mavs could potentially clear a little more cap room if they agree to a longer-term deal with Powell that lowers his cap hit for 2019/20. Stretching Lee would also be an option to create about $7.6MM in extra space, but in order to seriously consider such a move, the team would need to have a clear, pressing need for that space.
- Max cap room scenario: $48.26MM. This would be achieved by Powell opting out, followed by the Mavs renouncing all of their non-Porzingis free agents, waiving all their non-guaranteed salaries, and stretching Lee. It’s probably not a realistic outcome.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Trade exception: $1,233,152 (expires 1/31/20) 4
- Trade exception: $21,299,378 (expires 2/7/20) 4
- Room exception: $4,760,000 5
Footnotes
- The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap.
- Broekhoff’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 29.
- The Mavericks have a 26.2% chance of moving up into the top four in the draft lottery and keeping their first-round pick. In that scenario, a cap hold for the pick would be added to this list.
- The Mavericks will lose these exceptions if they go under the cap to use room.
- This is a projected value. In the event that the Mavericks remain over the cap, they’d instead gain access to the mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).
Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.