- Mavericks forward Harrison Barnes wants to play for the U.S. national team again, Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News reports. Barnes, who had a limited role in the 2016 Olympics, is one of 35 players USA Basketball has named as candidates to play in the 2019 World Championships and 2020 Olympics. “Everybody would love to play in a World Cup and the Olympics,” Barnes told Sefko. “Those are bucket-list experiences. If I could be included in that group, it would be really special.”
Wesley Matthews expects to get full medical clearance when he undergoes an MRI tomorrow, relays Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News. Matthews is recovering from a stress fracture in his right fibula that forced him to miss the final 16 games of the season. Except for a torn Achilles in 2014/15, this is the only time Matthews has missed an extended stretch because of injury.
“By the end of the week, I should be good to go,” he said.
Matthews has to decide soon whether to exercise an $18.6MM player option for next season. He offered a clue today when asked about participating in community events over the summer, saying, “Yeah, I mean, I’m going to be here, so I’d love to.”
There’s more today out of Dallas:
- The Mavericks should aggressively target Lakers forward Julius Randle in free agency, writes NBC5’s Newy Scruggs in The Dallas Morning News. Randle, who grew up in Texas, is coming off his best NBA season, averaging 16.1 points and 8.0 rebounds in 82 games. Dallas will have at least $20MM in cap room, and possibly much more depending on what happens with Matthews and several non-guaranteed contracts. Randle is a restricted free agent, but the Lakers will be seeking bigger names, so he could be available if the Mavericks strike quickly.
- Expect Rick Carlisle to remain the coach in Dallas for at least another three to four seasons, Scruggs adds in the same piece. Many Mavericks fans have turned on Carlisle as the losses piled up, Scruggs notes, but GMs still consider him one of the best coaches in the league.
- Don’t bet on the Mavericks trading their first-round pick, Sefko states in a separate story. Dallas goes into next month’s lottery with the third-best odds at the No. 1 choice after winning a tiebreaker with Atlanta. The Mavs seem committed to taking their time in rebuilding, Sefko adds, and are seeking another cornerstone player to go with last year’s top pick, Dennis Smith Jr.
- The NBA will return to China during the 2018 preseason, with the Sixers and Mavericks set to become the 16th and 17th teams to play in the country since 2004, per a press release. Dallas and Philadelphia will play in Shanghai on October 5 and in Shenzhen on October 8.
Dirk Nowitzki confirmed he will return to the Mavericks for his 21st season in 2018/19, while Dennis Smith Jr. will enter next season as an NBA sophomore. Despite being in different stages of their careers, Nowitzki and Smith both want to see the Mavericks return to relevance, per the Associated Press.
“I’ve been in a couple of arenas that are playoff teams, and I just witnessed the atmosphere,” Smith said. “I can only imagine how it is playoff time.”
Nowitzki has been part of numerous playoff teams in Dallas and helped lead the franchise to an NBA championship in 2011. In recent seasons, he has accepted that the Mavericks are in a rebuilding stage and contributed in any way possible. Still, he – along with the front office – wants to compete as soon as possible.
“We’re certainly hoping that we’re not in the early stages of a rebuild,” head coach Rick Carlisle said. “We want to get through this as expeditiously as possible. But there’s no way you can skip steps.”
Check out more Mavericks notes below:
- Doug McDermott joined the Mavericks in early February and played well, fulfilling the role of effective three-point shooter, as he has throughout his career. Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News writes that McDermott, who could hit restricted free agency, would like to return and the feeling is mutual. “I hope so,” McDermott said of returning. “I loved my time here. I feel like I fit in right from the first game, and it just allowed me to be myself out there.
- The Dallas Morning News looks at all of the Mavericks’ decisions heading into both restricted and unrestricted free agency, including what the future may hold for McDermott, Seth Curry, and Nerlens Noel.
- The Mavericks are clearly still in the rebuilding phase and the fan base should get used to the team not being competitive, Tim Cowlishaw of the Dallas Morning News writes. Dallas will need a lot of work just get to the level of some of the Western Conference’s lower-seeded playoff teams, making a postseason run unlikely to happen anytime soon.
After a series of tiebreakers were conducted Friday night, the lottery odds for the NBA Draft have been finalized. Similarly, the draft order for teams outside of the lottery has been decided as well.
While a total of four two-way ties and one four-way tie were all broken by coin toss, the biggest winner of the night would have to be the Mavs who will now officially boast the third-greatest odds when the lottery is drawn on May 15.
Although the Hawks equaled Dallas in futility, both teams limited to 24 wins on the year, they’ll slot in one spot behind them at No. 4. That means, if neither team secures a top-three pick when the lottery results are revealed, they’ll just pick after them, the same as if they had won one more game. Both teams, however, will have nearly identical odds (13.7% versus 13.8%) of securing a top-three pick in the lottery.
The Bulls also won big today, edging out the Kings for the No. 6 spot. Sacramento will have an identical shot at landing at top-three pick, however.
The four-way tie between Utah, New Orleans, Oklahoma City and Indiana ended with the Thunder at No. 20, the Jazz at No. 21, the Pelicans at No. 22 and the Pacers at No. 23.
That Oklahoma City pick will head to Minnesota while the 22nd pick will go straight to the Bulls as part of the Nikola Mirotic deal.
The Heat won the tiebreaker for the the 16th pick, ahead of the Bucks, and will send that to Phoenix as part of the Goran Dragic trade back in 2015.
Milwaukee claiming the No. 17 pick is particularly interesting since, had they won the tiebreaker, they would have had to flip the pick to the Suns as part of the Greg Monroe trade. Since they didn’t, they’ll keep the pick and send a protected first-rounder in 2019, so long as it falls between 4-16.
The Spurs won the coin toss between themselves and the Timberwolves and will now pick at No. 18. Minnesota’s 19th pick will go to Atlanta as part of a 2015 Adreian Payne trade.
As is always the case, the loser of any tiebreaker will end up with the better pick in the second round. In the event of the four-way tie, all four teams will simply be flipped, giving the Pacers the 50th pick and so on.
Here’s a rundown of what the draft order currently looks like, prior to the results of the May lottery.
| Pick | Team |
| 1 | Suns |
| 2 | Grizzlies |
| 3 | Mavs |
| 4 | Hawks |
| 5 | Magic |
| 6 | Bulls |
| 7 | Kings |
| 8 | Cavaliers |
| 9 | Knicks |
| 10 | 76ers |
| 11 | Hornets |
| 12 | Clippers |
| 13 | Clippers |
| 14 | Nuggets |
| 15 | Wizards |
| 16 | Suns |
| 17 | Bucks |
| 18 | Spurs |
| 19 | Hawks |
| 20 | Wolves |
| 21 | Jazz |
| 22 | Bulls |
| 23 | Pacers |
| 24 | Trail Blazers |
| 25 | Lakers |
| 26 | 76ers |
| 27 | Celtics |
| 28 | Warriors |
| 29 | Nets |
| 30 | Hawks |
During his end-of-season remarks to the media on Wednesday, Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle acknowledged that it’s hard to put a positive spin on the season the team had. “You can’t put lipstick on a pig,” Carlisle said, per Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News. “A 24-win season is a 24-win season.”
Still, Dennis Smith Jr. tried to take an optimistic view, telling reporters that he believes it was “a pretty successful year in terms of building for the future.” Smith is also looking forward to the Mavericks adding some reinforcements with their lottery pick and potentially via free agency or trade, observing that the team’s top decision-makers have “shown that they know talent.” For their part, those decision-makers are making it a top priority to add more weapons to Dallas’ lineup.
“Getting Rick ammunition is our No. 1 priority in the offseason,” president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson said. “And we’ve got a great opportunity in the draft. And in free agency, we’ll be extremely active. In our opinion, it was an extremely difficult year for the head coach.”
Here’s more on the Mavs:
- Asked on Wednesday about his contract option for 2018/19, Wesley Matthews deflected the question, telling reporters that he hasn’t thought about the decision yet (video link via Sefko). However, he did conclude his comments by stating that he has “no plans on going anywhere.” Matthews is considered very likely to opt into his $18.62MM salary.
- The Mavericks are believed to have finished about $3.3MM short of the NBA’s minimum salary floor, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link). That money will be split among the players on the club’s roster.
- Dirk Nowitzki, who announced earlier this week that he’ll return in 2018/19 for his 21st season with the Mavericks, said he didn’t want to “run from” the workplace misconduct scandal involving the club’s business offices, as Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News relays. “The investigation is going on and I’m here to help obviously in any way I can, but that did not factor into my decision at all,” Nowitzki said. “I just want to try to help as much as I can.”
With the 2017/18 NBA regular season in the books, the postseason matchups are set in both the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference.
More importantly for fans of most non-playoff teams, the end of the regular season means that the 2018 NBA draft picture is clearer than ever. The 2018 draft order is close to being set and – with a small handful of exceptions – most of this year’s traded draft picks with protections on them have now officially changed hands or officially stayed put.
However, there are still some major question marks surrounding the draft order, since several clubs finished the regular season with identical records, and draft tiebreakers don’t work like playoff tiebreakers do. In order to break these ties, the NBA will conduct random drawings this Friday, as Jonathan Givony of ESPN notes (via Twitter).
[RELATED: 2017/18 NBA Reverse Standings]
For lottery teams, such as the 24-58 Mavericks and Hawks, who finished tied for third in the lottery standings, the implications of those drawings are huge. Whichever team wins that tiebreaker will have ever-so-slightly better odds at the first overall pick (13.8% to 13.7%), and will be in position to claim the higher first-round pick if neither team lands in the top three.
For instance, if the Suns and Grizzlies remain at No. 1 and No. 2 in the lottery and another team leapfrogs the Mavs and Hawks, the winner of the tiebreaker between Dallas and Atlanta would claim the No. 4 overall pick — the loser would get No. 5. For the second round, the loser of the tiebreaker would receive the higher selection.
Here are the draft tiebreakers that will be conducted on Friday:
- Mavericks vs. Hawks for Nos. 3, 4.
- Kings vs. Bulls for Nos. 6, 7.
- Bucks vs. Heat for Nos. 16, 17.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves for Nos. 18, 19.
- Pacers vs. Pelicans vs. Thunder vs. Jazz for Nos. 20-23.
Several of those tiebreakers will also affect this year’s traded picks. Most notably, the Bucks/Heat drawing has massive implications for Milwaukee and Phoenix — the Bucks’ first-round pick will head to the Suns if it lands at No. 16, but Milwaukee would keep it if it ends up at No. 17. In other words, each team has a 50/50 shot at the pick. If the Bucks keep it, they’d owe their 2019 first-round selection to Phoenix, albeit with somewhat similar protections.
Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for 2018. A check mark indicates the pick will definitely be sent to the indicated team:
- Nets pick to Cavaliers (✔️): Eighth in lottery standings
- Lakers pick to Sixers (97.1%) or Celtics (2.9%): 10th in lottery standings
- Note: Celtics will receive pick if it lands at No. 2 or No. 3 via the lottery.
- Pistons pick to Clippers (97.5%): 12th in lottery standings
- Note: Pistons will keep pick if it lands in top three via the lottery.
- Heat pick to Suns (✔️): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
- Bucks pick to Suns (50%): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
- Note: Bucks will keep pick if it lands at No. 17 via a random drawing.
- Timberwolves pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 18 or 19 (tie)
- Thunder pick to Timberwolves (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
- Pelicans pick to Bulls (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
- Cavaliers pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 25
- Raptors pick to Nets (✔️): No. 29
- Rockets pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 30
Here’s a breakdown of the traded second-round picks that will change hands in 2018:
- Bulls pick to Knicks (✔️): No. 36 or 37 (tie)
- Nets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 38
- Knicks pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 39
- Lakers pick to Nets (✔️): No. 40
- Hornets pick to Magic (✔️): No. 41
- Clippers pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 43
- Bucks pick to Nets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
- Heat pick to Rockets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
- Nuggets pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 47
- Trail Blazers pick to Mavericks (✔️): No. 54
- Cavaliers pick to Hornets (✔️): No. 55
- Celtics pick to Thunder (✔️): No. 57
- Warriors pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 58
- Raptors pick to Suns (✔️): No. 59
- Rockets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 60
As expected, Dirk Nowitzki will play at least one more season for the Mavericks, confirming today that he’ll return for a 21st NBA season in 2018/19, per Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News.
Nowitzki, who signed a two-year deal with the Mavs last summer, has maintained all season that he hoped to return for the second year of that contract as long as his health cooperated. Nowitzki avoided major injuries for the most part this season, appearing in 77 games for Dallas before being shut down last week due to ankle surgery. The 39-year-old said today that he underwent that ankle procedure now in order to get healthy for next season.
“I’m hoping the ankle will be tons better next year. I just kind of want to see how it goes,” Nowitzki said, per Dwain Price of Mavs.com (Twitter links). “I’m hoping to get of the boot in a few weeks and then start slow with the rehab. It’s going to be a long process.”
While Nowitzki obviously isn’t the same player he was in his prime, he continued to be a reliable outside shooter for the Mavs this season, making 40.9% of his three-point attempts. In 24.7 minutes per contest, the veteran big man contributed 12.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG.
Technically, Nowitzki doesn’t have a guaranteed salary yet for 2018/19, but the Mavs will certainly exercise their $5MM team option for the franchise legend as long as he doesn’t want to negotiate a new deal. And while there’s a good chance that next season will be Nowitzki’s last, that’s not necessarily a given, tweets Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com.
“Hopefully I can play some decent basketball next season,” Nowitzki said today. “If not, it’s time to go.”
Assuming Nowitzki, the NBA’s sixth-leading scorer of all-time, can stay relatively healthy next season, he should pass Wilt Chamberlain on the all-time scoring list, and even has an outside shot at surpassing Michael Jordan. However, LeBron James currently trails Nowitzki by just 159 career points, so the German will likely be passed by James and remain at No. 6 on that list.
Nowitzki will set another notable record by returning to Dallas for a 21st season — he’ll pass Kobe Bryant, who played 20 seasons with the Lakers, for the most years spent with a single franchise.
The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”
Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.
A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.
Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.
Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.
Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:
With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.
- Jabari Parker (Bucks)
- Dante Exum (Jazz)
- Nik Stauskas (Nets)
- Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
- Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
- Zach LaVine (Bulls)
No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.
Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.
First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:
The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.
- Elfrid Payton (Suns)
- Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
- Clint Capela (Rockets)
- Kyle Anderson (Spurs)
Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.
Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.
Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:
Only one player falls into this group this year.
- Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)
Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.
The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.
Following the Grizzlies’ win over Detroit and the Suns‘ loss to Golden State on Sunday, Phoenix has locked up the NBA’s worst record for the 2017/18 season. As our Reverse Standings show, the Suns’ 2.5-game lead for that top lottery spot ensures that they’ll head into next month’s draft lottery with a 25% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. They’ll also be guaranteed a top-four pick in the 2018 draft.
The Suns will be hoping for better luck this year than they had last spring — after finishing with the NBA’s second-worst record in 2016/17, Phoenix slipped out of the top three of last year’s lottery, ultimately landing Josh Jackson with the fourth overall pick. This time around, the Suns will have a 64.3% chance of securing a top-three selection.
Although the Grizzlies are no longer in the running for the No. 1 spot in the lottery, they look like a good bet to wind up at No. 2 in the lottery standings — they have a 22-58 record, putting them 1.5 games ahead of the 24-57 Hawks and Mavericks with three days left in the season.
Unlike in the NBA’s playoff race, where ties are broken based on each team’s performance in certain regular-season matchups, lottery ties are broken via coin flips. If Atlanta and Dallas ultimately finish tied for third in the lottery standings, they’d receive nearly equal odds of landing the No. 1 pick. Rather than 15.6% for third place and 11.9% for fourth, one team would have a 13.8% chance for the No. 1 pick and one team would have a 13.7% chance. In that scenario, the winner of a coin flip would receive the slightly higher lottery odds, and would get the higher draft pick if neither team ends up in the top three.
2018 represents the last year that the NBA will use its current draft lottery format. Starting in 2019, the lottery odds will be smoothed out, reducing the “top” teams’ chances of landing the highest picks. If the Suns had finished No. 1 in the lottery standings under that new format, they’d only have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick – plus a 40% chance at a top-three selection – and could have fallen as low as No. 5.