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2023/24 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division

October 10th, 2023 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

With the 2023/24 NBA regular season around the corner, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2022/23, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’23/24?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Southwest Division…

Memphis Grizzlies

New Orleans Pelicans

Dallas Mavericks

Houston Rockets

San Antonio Spurs

Previous voting results:

Northwest

  • Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (44.5 wins): Over (53.1%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (44.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
  • Utah Jazz (35.5 wins): Over (55.5%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (28.5 wins): Under (50.9%)

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): Over (76.9%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (50.5 wins): Under (52.0%)
  • Indiana Pacers (38.5 wins): Over (64.1%)
  • Chicago Bulls (37.5 wins): Under (61.9%)
  • Detroit Pistons (27.5 wins): Over (53.8%)
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NBA GMs Like Celtics’ Offseason Moves, Title Chances

October 10th, 2023 at 11:59am CST by Luke Adams

The Celtics and Bucks made the best overall moves this offseason, according to the NBA’s general managers. In his annual survey of the league’s top basketball decision-makers, John Schuhmann of NBA.com writes that 23% picked Boston as having the best summer, while another 23% picked Milwaukee. The Trail Blazers (17%) and Lakers (13%) were among the other clubs who received multiple votes.

Of course, the Celtics’ and Bucks’ pre-camp trades for Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard, respectively, were huge factors in the positive perception of their offseasons. Of Schuhmann’s GM respondents, 47% said the Lillard acquisition was the most impactful move of the offseason, while Boston’s addition of Holiday placed second at 13% (the Celtics’ trade for Kristaps Porzingis tied for fourth, at 7%).

Both Boston and Milwaukee are viewed by the league’s general managers as good bets to compete for the title in 2024. The Celtics were selected by 33% of Schuhmann’s respondents as the team that will win the championship the season, while the Bucks got 23% of the vote share. No other Eastern club received a vote, with the Nuggets (33%), Suns (7%), and Clippers (3%) representing the only other teams that were chosen as potential champs.

Here are a few more interesting results from Schuhmann’s GM survey, which is worth checking out in full:

  • As much as the NBA’s general managers like Boston’s roster, it was the Grizzlies‘ acquisition of Marcus Smart from Boston that was voted as the most underrated player addition of the summer (17%), narrowly edging out the Mavericks‘ sign-and-trade for Grant Williams (14%).
  • The NBA’s GMs are high on the Thunder. Oklahoma City was the runaway winner as the team with the league’s most promising young core (73%) and also earned the most votes for which club will be most improved in 2023/24 (30%).
  • Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama got plenty of love from the league’s GMs. He was the top choice for Rookie of the Year (50%) and was the overwhelming pick for which rookie will be the best player in five years (90%). He also placed second among the players Schuhmann’s respondents would most want to start a franchise with today, with his 23% vote share trailing only Nikola Jokic‘s 33%.
  • NBA GMs expect Ime Udoka of the Rockets to be the head coach that has the biggest impact on his new team (57%), followed by Monty Williams of the Pistons (17%).
  • Jordi Fernandez of the Kings, viewed as a future NBA head coach, comfortably won the vote on the league’s best assistant (31%).
  • The NBA’s GMs consider Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (23%), Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (20%), and Magic forward Franz Wagner (13%) the top candidates for a breakout year.
  • Which rookie was the biggest steal in the 2023 draft? Rockets wing Cam Whitmore (43%) was the top choice, with Jazz guard Keyonte George, Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson, and Heat forward Jaime Jaquez each receiving 10% of the vote.
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Luka Doncic: If I Play In Europe Again, It'd Be For Real Madrid

October 10th, 2023 at 10:48am CST by Luke Adams
  • Ahead of the Mavericks‘ exhibition game on Tuesday against Real Madrid, star guard Luka Doncic had nothing but praise for the Spanish club, citing the impact Real Madrid had on his career development, notes Johnny Askounis of Eurohoops. Doncic played for the club from 2015-18, earning three Spanish League titles and a EuroLeague championship during that time. “I’ve got a lot of great memories and I’m happy to be back,” Doncic said. “If I return to Europe one day, I’m sure it will be to Real Madrid. That’s 100%.”
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Southwest Notes: Z. Williams, Adams, Mavs, Vassell

October 6th, 2023 at 3:17pm CST by Luke Adams

Following a promising rookie season in 2021/22, Ziaire Williams battled injuries and was limited to just 37 games in ’22/23 — and he was inconsistent when he did play, with his shooting percentages dropping across the board. That down year would seemingly make him a long shot to crack the Grizzlies‘ starting five this fall, but he’s making a case for that open lineup spot with his defensive play in training camp, writes Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal.

“I talked to him after practice about how he’s doing a great job in situations using his length, using his mobility,” head coach Taylor Jenkins said earlier this week. “His attention to detail has been spot-on right now defensively.”

According to Cole, making an All-Defensive team and being named Most Improved Player are among Williams’ lofty goals for the season. While those accolades may ultimately prove out of reach, he’s determined to avoid a repeat of last season, telling reporters that he worked hard this summer and is now stronger and weighs more than at any other time in his playing career.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

  • Coming off a right knee injury, Grizzlies center Steven Adams was a full participant in scrimmages on Thursday and showed no ill effects of his long recovery process, per Cole of The Commercial Appeal. “He’s looked great,” teammate Luke Kennard said. “He’s done everything. Every drill, all the scrimmages and he’s been dominant down low. He looks good to me.”
  • Although Jason Kidd has trended to trust veterans over young players in the past, Tim Cato of The Athletic believes the Mavericks‘ head coach may have a longer leash with Dereck Lively II and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, two defensive-minded rookies who will know not to try to do too much on offense.
  • Devin Vassell isn’t a perfect player, but based on the improvements he has made since entering the league and the rising NBA salary cap, he’s worth the five-year, $135MM+ contract extension the Spurs signed him to this week, says Sam Vecenie of The Athletic. As Vecenie points out, by the end of the deal, Vecenie should be earning approximately 15% of the cap, which is about what players like Myles Turner, Bruce Brown, and Mikal Bridges are currently making.
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And-Ones: Holiday, N. Young, J. Parker, 2024 Draft, More

October 2nd, 2023 at 2:55pm CST by Luke Adams

The Heat and Clippers are believed to be the other teams that were seriously in the mix for Jrue Holiday before the Trail Blazers accepted the Celtics’ offer for the All-Defensive guard, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said during the latest episode of his Hoop Collective podcast.

“I’m not sure exactly where are the offers were at the end for the Blazers before they decided on the Celtics’ offer, but based on my conversations, my feel was there was at least three teams who were making significant bids.” Windhorst said, according to RealGM. “… The teams I really think were there in the end were the Celtics, Heat and the Clippers.

“The reason I think those three teams were there because I think those were the three teams Jrue Holiday was really focused on at some point being able to sign a longer-term contract (with). And that message kind of went out in recent days. Other teams made offers but it was sort of a three-team, aggressive race at the end. Only the Blazers know exactly what the offers were.”

The Clippers came close to acquiring Malcolm Brogdon back in June, so it will be interesting to see if they make any effort to re-engage the Trail Blazers in talks for Brogdon after missing out on Holiday.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Former NBA guard Nick Young is resuming his playing career overseas, having signed with the Macau Black Bears of the ASEAN Basketball League (ABL), according to the team (Instagram link; hat tip to Sportando). A former first-round pick, Young has appeared in 720 regular season NBA games, but has been out of the league since being waived by Denver in 2018.
  • Speaking to Alex Molina of Eurohoops following his move to FC Barcelona, former No. 2 overall pick Jabari Parker said he believes the NBA is getting “watered down” because so many teams are trying to tank for draft picks each season, and expressed dismay that players like Dwight Howard, DeMarcus Cousins, and John Wall can’t find NBA homes.
  • ESPN’s Jonathan Givony (Insider link) has updated his mock draft for 2024, moving USC guard Isaiah Collier up to No. 2 and Perth Wildcats big man Alexandre Sarr up to No. 4. While Ron Holland of the G League Ignite is still considered the early favorite to be next year’s No. 1 pick, Givony says Sarr has done enough to join the small group of prospects with a legitimate case for the top spot in the 2024 draft.
  • With a series of holes in its programming schedule this winter due to the writers’ and actors’ strikes, ABC will air NBA games on every Wednesday night in January, tweets Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. That slate of games will includes matchups between the Pelicans and Warriors, Mavericks and Lakers, and Suns and Nets, among others.
  • Kurt Helin of NBC Sports believes that Jason Kidd (Mavericks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), and Billy Donovan (Bulls) are three head coaches who will be on the hot seat this season.
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Mavericks Notes: Hardaway, Lively, Williams, Exum

October 1st, 2023 at 9:59am CST by Arthur Hill

Tim Hardaway Jr. doesn’t mind being used in a reserve role, but he wasn’t aware that was Jason Kidd’s plan before the Mavericks coach explained it on a radio show, writes Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News.

Appearing on Saturday Stein Line with Marc Stein, Kidd said Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Grant Williams are the definite members of his starting five, with camp competitions to decide the starters at center and small forward. Kidd views Hardaway as the potential leader of his bench unit.

“I’m excited again for Timmy, looking to talk to him about being Sixth Man of the Year,” Kidd said. “That would help our team, put us in a really good seat if he’s up for Sixth Man of the Year. And I think he’s capable of doing that.”

Hardaway has been a part-time starter during most of his time in Dallas and started 45 of the 71 games he played last season, so he’s familiar with either role. He’s willing to do whatever Kidd asks, but he said at Friday’s media day that he and his coach haven’t talked about it.

“You guys heard it first from him,” Hardaway said. “I’m a hybrid, I guess, at this point in my career. Whether I start or come off the bench, I’m not going to be the one to have an ego or anything like that because it doesn’t get you anywhere. I want to win ballgames, just like the rest of the guys on this team. Any other thought is kind of a waste of energy.”

There’s more from Dallas:

  • Rookie center Dereck Lively II is already making a strong impression and will contend for a starting job in camp, Townsend adds. “He’s taken a big, big jump for us here late, being able to play with Luka in the pickup games,” Kidd said. “There’s some excitement between those two.”
  • The Mavericks are still getting used to Williams, who was known for being extremely vocal on the court during his time with the Celtics. Dallas targeted the free agent forward to bring that same energy and a defensive presence to his new team. “I think Grant is a good leader too, he talks a lot,” Doncic told reporters at media day (video link). “Sometimes too much.”
  • Dante Exum plans to return to Partizan Belgrade if he ever plays in Europe again, according to Eurohoops. Exum signed a two-year, $6.15MM contract with the Mavericks this summer that is non-guaranteed for the second season. “Let me say right now, if I ever return to Europe, Partizan is the first option, and probably the only one,” Exum told Mozzart Sport.
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Mavericks Notes: Green, Doncic, Kidd, Kyrie, Curry

September 29th, 2023 at 10:54pm CST by Rory Maher

Fourth-year wing Josh Green is entering the final year of his rookie contract with the Mavericks. The former first-round pick is eligible for a rookie scale extension until October 23, which is the day before the regular season begins.

Marc Stein reported last month that the Mavericks had opened extension talks with Green, but an agreement has yet to be reached.

Speaking to the media on Friday, Green said he hopes to reach a long-term deal, as Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News relays.

“At the end of the day, I know I want to be here,” Green said. “I’m going to work as if I’m going to be here for a long time. I want to be able to win in Dallas; I want to be in Dallas.

“Whatever their decision is their decision, but at the end of the day I’ve got the same goal every single day and that’s to be the best teammate and the best player I can be for the team.”

If Green doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll be eligible for restricted free agency next summer.

Here’s more on the Mavs:

  • Star Luka Doncic said he’s still not exactly sure what’s wrong with his nagging thigh injury, which bothered him last season and lingered into this summer’s World Cup. “It’s better, but we still have some appointments,” Doncic said, per Townsend of The Dallas Morning News. “So when we get the clear ‘What is it?,’ we’ll let you guys know.” When asked if he would be a full participant in training camp, which started Wednesday because the team is traveling overseas, Doncic said he might speak to the trainer about skipping “some stuff” due to two-a-days. However, according to Townsend, head coach Jason Kidd expected Doncic to be present for everything, despite being less than 100%. “And so the topic of getting him stronger, and getting him close to 100% before the first game is the goal,” Kidd said. “And so to answer the second part, yes, he will participate in two-a-days.”
  • Doncic also said he’s looking forward to building more chemistry with Kyrie Irving, who re-signed with Dallas this offseason after being acquired at the February trade deadline, writes Tim MacMahon of ESPN. “I mean better for sure,” Doncic said. “He came in the middle of the season last year, and we didn’t have much time. We went straight to playing games. It takes time to do chemistry, especially on the court, so we didn’t have the whole training camp and then I mean the preseason too. So I think it’s going to be way better.”
  • Speaking of Irving, he discussed why he decided to return to the Mavs in free agency, MacMahon writes in another article for ESPN. “It wasn’t too difficult of a process,” said Irving, who signed a three-year, $120MM+ deal. “Had Dallas as No. 1 on my list. Obviously I looked elsewhere — salary cap opportunities, where I could fit in with other guys around the league — but there just wasn’t much space. And me being 31 now, I had to have a different vantage point, and I felt like I could not just settle here but be happy to come back here and be welcomed back with a warm embrace.”
  • Veteran sharpshooter Seth Curry, who signed a two-year, $8MM deal with the Mavs in free agency, is also happy to be back in Dallas, per Eddie Sefko of Mavs.com. This is Curry’s third stint with the team. “A lot of potential, a lot of talent – top to bottom, a lot of guys that can play,” he said. “It’s about putting it together. Offensively, we should have one of the best rosters in the league. It’s about getting timely stops on defense.”
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Mavs' Casey Smith Has Role Adjusted

September 26th, 2023 at 1:30pm CST by Luke Adams
  • Mavericks director of player health and performance Casey Smith, who has been on the team’s bench for the last two decades, will have his role adjusted this season, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPN (Twitter link). Smith won’t travel with the Mavs on a regular basis or be on their bench, MacMahon says.
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Community Shootaround: Mavericks’ Season

September 25th, 2023 at 10:43pm CST by Dana Gauruder

One of the teams that will be closely watched this season is the Mavericks.

While Luka Doncic is signed through the 2026/27 season – he has a player option in the final year of his contract – the Mavericks need to be a major contender on a yearly basis to prevent Doncic from being the next superstar to ask for a trade.

Dallas rolled the dice on Kyrie Irving last season, making a blockbuster trade for the mercurial point guard. In the short run, it blew up in the Mavs’ faces as they didn’t participate in the postseason. Irving was signed to a three-year, $120MM contract this offseason but that won’t end the speculation that he could eventually be dealt to the Lakers – if Los Angeles wants him.

Dallas’ other big move this offseason was to engineer a sign-and-trade with the Celtics for power forward Grant Williams.

The backcourt duo and Williams will comprise three-fifths of the starting lineup. From there, it gets murky.

Josh Green or Tim Hardaway Jr. would seem to be the logical candidates at small forward but coach Jason Kidd won’t rule out the possibility of Olivier-Maxence Prosper – the 24th pick in the draft — grabbing that spot if he has a strong training camp.

Ditto for center Dereck Lively II, their lottery selection at No. 12. Kidd believes Lively will be a factor from the get-go, even though there are veteran options in Dwight Powell and Richaun Holmes at that position.

The Mavs have also been involved in a number of trade rumors, with Deandre Ayton, Clint Capela and Buddy Hield among the players they’ve been linked to in recent months.

Kidd would seemingly be on the hot seat this season, following last season’s flop and owner Mark Cuban desire to have a serious shot at a title while keeping Doncic happy.

That brings us to our topic of the day: How do think the Mavs will fare this season? What player should they trade for to significantly improve their chances?

Please take to the comments section to weigh on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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