Mavericks Rumors

Trade Breakdown: Christian Wood To Mavericks

This is the first in our series breaking down the major trades of the 2022 offseason. As opposed to giving out grades, this series will explore why the teams were motivated to make the moves. We’re starting with a pre-draft deal between the Mavericks and Rockets…


Most of the immediate reaction to the Rockets sending Christian Wood to the Mavericks in exchange for the 26th pick, Boban Marjanovic, Sterling Brown, Trey Burke and Marquese Chriss was surprise at Wood’s relatively low value, resulting a general sense that the Mavericks got a steal.

So why did the Rockets move Wood for a late first-rounder (the Rockets later flipped the pick for the 29th selection – used on TyTy Washington — and a couple of second-rounders from the Wolves) and four expiring contracts? After all, the talented big man averaged 19.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.0 block in 109 games (31.4 minutes) for Houston the past two seasons, posting a shooting line of .507/.384/.626.

The first part of the answer is easy: After finishing with the worst record in the league for the second straight season, Houston landed the third overall pick in the draft. The Rockets knew that one of Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren or Jabari Smith (whom they ultimately selected) would be available at that spot, so they needed to move Wood to clear a minutes logjam in the frontcourt for the incoming rookie and second-year big man Alperen Sengun.

Wood is too good to not play, and having him come off the bench in place of rookie and a second-year player doesn’t make sense for either side – Wood would be unhappy, and you don’t get optimal value by not showcasing a player you’re looking to deal. Wood is also on expiring contract of his own ($14.3MM), turns 27 before the season, and wasn’t in the team’s long-term plans, so all of those things hurt Houston’s negotiating leverage.

It’s also fair to question, to some extent, how much impact Wood actually had on winning in his tenure with the Rockets, considering the team finished with the worst record in the league two years in a row. Obviously, not all of that is on him, yet last season the team had a better net rating when he was off the court (-8.4) than on it (-9.6).

Rockets GM Rafael Stone is smart. All NBA front offices are led by intelligent people. The rest of the league knew that Houston needed to clear minutes in the frontcourt, and considering Wood has outperformed his three-year, $41MM deal, whichever team acquired him also knew it would have to pay him handsomely to keep him around – Wood will be eligible to sign a contract extension worth up to $77MM over four years at the end of December, as ESPN’s Bobby Marks reported at the time of the trade.

Thus, his market value turned out to be the 26th pick and four expiring contracts that range between $2.2MM and $3.5MM. The expiring deals were key for the Rockets, because they project to have a ton of cap space in 2023, and Houston is a large market that could feasibly attract free agents with its young, talented core (the fact that Texas has no state income tax also helps a selling point).

I’m skeptical that any of Marjanovic, Burke, Brown or Chriss have positive value on the trade market, and there’s a good chance most of them won’t be on Houston’s roster before the regular season begins, which is why I refer to them collectively as expiring contracts. The team currently has 18 players on standard deals and that number needs to be cut to 15 by October. If any of those players remain on the roster, it will probably be due to their off-court impact as much as what they can do on the court, because the Rockets are in the midst of a rebuild and won’t be prioritizing minutes for veterans.

Still, clearing frontcourt playing time, not having to worry about paying Wood in the future, and acquiring a young player with the potential to be under team control for up to nine years (four years of rookie scale contract plus up to five more via extension or as a restricted free agent) were all appealing reasons to trade Wood, despite how productive he was for Houston.

The Mavericks’ motivation to make the deal was relatively straightforward. Dallas reached the Western Conference Finals last season and entered the offseason with a clear goal in mind of improving the frontcourt, and Wood instantly becomes the most dynamic pick-and-roll partner Luka Doncic has ever been paired with.

There’s no denying Wood is a talented player. Only nine players averaged at least 17 points and 10 rebounds last season: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis, Jonas Valanciunas, Nikola Vucevic, Deandre Ayton, Bam Adebayo and Wood.

Out of all those MVP winners and All-Stars, Wood had the highest three-point percentage at 39%. He also shot 67% at the rim, which was in the 79th percentile of all players last season, per DunksAndThrees.com.

The Mavs struggled mightily with rebounding the ball last season. They finished 24th in the league in rebounding during the regular season and were significantly outrebounded in each postseason series they played: -7.1 rebounds per game vs. Utah, -7.7 vs. Phoenix and -11.4 vs. Golden State. Wood was in the 97th percentile for defensive rebounding percentage (30%) last season, per DunksAndThrees.

There are also multiple counterarguments that show the Rockets were a much better team when Wood was on the court than off during his tenure.

Despite the aforementioned net rating differential, Houston was 19-49 when he played last season and 1-13 when he didn’t, and 12-29 when he played in ‘20/21 vs. 5-24 when he didn’t. The Rockets were also substantially better when he was on the court (-4.0) in ’20/21 compared to off it (-10.5).

The four players the Mavs sent to the Rockets had minimal on-court value last season, and none were in the rotation in the playoffs. In addition to clearing four roster spots (five-for-one including the first-rounder), Dallas is essentially betting that Wood will outperform a player entering his rookie season, which is a pretty safe gamble.

The risks for the Mavericks stem from the fact that Wood is a poor defensive player, primarily played center with Houston and will reportedly be sliding down to power forward to accommodate new frontcourt partner JaVale McGee, and is on an expiring deal. Dallas will hold Wood’s Bird rights if the two sides are unable to reach an in-season extension, but he won’t come cheap. That factor shouldn’t be overlooked for a team that could face the repeater tax in ’23/24.

It’s unclear how pairing Wood and McGee together in the starting lineup will impact the team’s spacing, but it does seem like it might mitigate Wood’s effectiveness in the pick-and-roll to some extent. McGee figures to be a primary roll man considering Wood’s ability to shoot from distance, but Wood is capable of much more than being just a spot-up shooter.

That’s not to say they’ll always share the court together, and the Mavs will certainly be an improved rebounding team and have more rim protection, but Wood is a major downgrade compared to Maxi Kleber defensively, even if he’s a hugely more impactful offensive player.

Since he’s entering his age-27 season, Wood is theoretically entering his prime, which is a better fit for the Mavericks’ timeline, as they’re trying to be as competitive as possible for the foreseeable future. The fact that they lost a cost-controlled asset in the 26th pick does hurt from a long-term financial perspective, but Wood is virtually certain to make a bigger impact right now, making it a worthwhile risk.

Knicks Trade Nerlens Noel, Alec Burks To Pistons

JULY 11: The Knicks and Pistons have officially completed their trade, the teams announced today in a pair of press releases.

As expected, the Pistons acquired Noel, Burks, cash, and the team’s own 2023 second-round pick. The second pick Detroit received will be either Minnesota’s or New York’s 2026 second-rounder, rather than the heavily protected Miami 2024 second-rounder described below.

The Knicks, meanwhile, received the draft rights to 2015 second-rounder Nikola Radicevic and a protected 2025 second-round pick. That pick will have top-55 protection, tweets Fred Katz of The Athletic.


JUNE 28: The Knicks are trading center Nerlens Noel and guard Alec Burks to the Pistons, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski tweets.

The Knicks will unload more than $19MM in 2022/23 salary in the deal, providing ample cap space to sign free agent guard Jalen Brunson. Noel has a $9.24MM salary next season, while Burks is due approximately $10MM.

Both players are signed through the 2023/24 season, but there are team options in the final year of their respective contracts — Noel at $9.68MM and Burks at approximately $10.5MM. Thus, those salaries could come off the Pistons’ cap next summer.

New York will send Detroit back its 2023 second-round pick, plus the Heat’s 2024 second-round pick (top-55 protected) and $6MM in cash as sweeteners to take those contracts off its books, Wojnarowski reports in a separate tweet.

The Pistons can absorb those salaries without sending out any contracts, since they were projected to have more cap space than any other team. The Knicks, meanwhile, should have now the cap room necessary to sign Jalen Brunson in free agency.

The Knicks and Pistons were also involved in a three-way draft-night agreement that included the Hornets. In that trade, Detroit took Kemba Walker‘s contract off New York’s books and acquired the draft rights to Jalen Duren.

The Pistons plan on keeping Burks and Noel, according to Wojnarowski (Twitter link). Burks, a 38% career 3-point shooter, will give the Pistons a perimeter threat on the wing who can help mentor the young backcourt of Cade Cunningham and rookie Jaden Ivey. Noel provides depth in the middle behind Isaiah Stewart and Duren.

Despite the addition of Noel, the Pistons are still committed to bringing back restricted free agent Marvin Bagley III, Omari Sankofa of the Detroit Free Press tweets.

Mavericks Notes: Hardy, Brunson, Cuban, Harding, McGee

Mavericks rookie shooting guard Jaden Hardy, the No. 37 pick in the 2022 draft, enjoyed a stellar Summer League debut on Friday, finishing with 28 points on 9-of-19 field goal shooting during a 100-99 overtime loss to the Bulls. Selby Lopez of the Dallas Morning News details Hardy’s big night.

“Jaden did a great job,” Mavericks assistant coach and Summer League team head coach Greg St. Jean said. “I think that’s part of the process here of putting him in those situations, then being able to review the film and talk through it… I think it’s a great start for him, and we’re going to learn a lot from the film.”

The 6’4″ guard averaged 17.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 3.2 APG while with the G League Ignite during the 2021/22 season. His efficiency left something to be desired, however, as he connected on just 35.1% of his field goal attempts.

There’s more out of Dallas:

  • Dallas team owner Mark Cuban expressed his excitement for former Maverick Jalen Brunson agreeing to sign a lucrative four-year, $104MM new deal with the Knicks, but revealed that Dallas was not able to counter with a potential contract of its own in free agency this summer, writes Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News. “It really wasn’t about the amount of money,” Cuban said while at the 2022 Las Vegas Summer League. “We really didn’t get a chance to make an offer. It was Jalen’s choice. And I understand it. He knew those guys his entire life. He grew up there. It makes perfect sense… We wanted him to stay, but he had his reason, and I respect that.” The latest intel on the contract suggests that the Knicks will sign Brunson using cap space, rather than via a sign-and-trade with the Mavericks.
  • Mavericks Summer League point guard Jerrick Harding is hoping to latch on at the next level, writes Eddie Sefko of Mavericks.com“I ended my senior year [at Weber State], and this was in 2020, so COVID hit and all that was going on,” he said. “So basically the whole summer I was waiting. There were no workouts, no summer league, there was no anything.” Harding signed on with Czech National Basketball League club ERA Nymburk in 2020 and has played with them for two seasons. “[They’re] the best team in the Czech Republic. They play in the Champions League. So I figured it would be a good spot for me. I didn’t want to sit and wait. I might not have a job, know what I mean if I stayed in the states.” Now with Dallas’s Summer League club, the 6’1″ guard is eager to prove himself.
  • Following two seasons played on one-year contracts, new Mavericks center JaVale McGee opted for a bit more security this time around in free agency, inking a three-year, $20.4MM deal with Dallas. “The past couple of years, I really wanted to focus on consistency and comfortability,” McGee said of his new opportunity, per Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic. Though the three-time champion fit in well with a 64-18 Suns team and seemed a safe bet to return for 2022/23, the team’s uncertain future this summer compelled him to look elsewhere for a long-term contract. “I think it was more of having to wait for [restricted free agent] Deandre Ayton and now [Kevin Durant], trying to figure it out,” McGee said. “For me, it was just like at this stage of my career and what I’m looking for, I don’t have time to be waiting on somebody else.”

Knicks Notes: Brunson, Keels, Grimes, Gibson

The Knicks are expected to add Jalen Brunson via cap space rather than trying to work out a sign-and-trade deal with the Mavericks, tweets Fred Katz of The Athletic. Brunson agreed to a four-year, $104MM contract with New York shortly after the start of free agency on June 30. But the signing hasn’t been made official yet as the Knicks review their options on the best way to add him to the roster.

Marc Stein confirms that a signing using cap room is the most likely option (Twitter link), and a source tells him that Monday is probably the soonest it will happen.

Brunson played an important role in helping Dallas reach the Western Conference finals, but Mavericks owner Mark Cuban tells Steve Popper of Newsday there are “no hard feelings” about his departure. Cuban said he never got a chance to make a final offer, but acknowledged that it may not have mattered given Brunson’s close ties to the Knicks organization.

“I wish him nothing but the best,” Cuban said. “You bust your [butt] and you have that choice. He deserves it. It happens. It’s the way this league works. It’s a business. You trade a player, you say it’s a business. You lose a player, it’s a business. It’s just the way it goes.”

There’s more on the Knicks:

  • Trevor Keels, who’s expected to fill a two-way slot in New York, admits having “chills” before his first Summer League game, per Zach Braziller of The New York Post. After sliding to No. 42 in last month’s draft, Keels is determined to prove that he should have been taken higher. “I didn’t think I was going to [get drafted] that low. But it is what it is,” he said. “Of course, I’m going to make sure all the teams pay that passed up on me. But I’m excited I’m a Knick. I wouldn’t change it for anything.” 
  • Quentin Grimes had eight assists along with a team-high 24 points in the Summer League opener and has been working on becoming a better play-maker, writes Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News. For the second straight year, Grimes spent part of the offseason working with University of Memphis coach Penny Hardaway“He’s kind of like a big uncle to me,” Grimes said. “Just took me under his wing and helped me play the point guard position a lot better. Because that’s what I was in high school.”
  • After waiving Taj Gibson this week, the Knicks were hoping to bring him back on a veteran’s minimum contract, but he believed he had a better chance at playing time with the Wizards, tweets Ian Begley of SNY.tv.

Contract Details: Booker, Towns, Magic, Oladipo, Anderson, Hardy

The new super-max extensions for Suns guard Devin Booker and Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns each come with a different perk.

Booker’s deal includes a 10% trade kicker, but is fully guaranteed for all four years, with no player option in 2027/28.

Towns’ new contract, conversely, doesn’t feature a trade kicker, but has a fourth-year player option, giving Towns the ability to opt out and reach free agency in 2027.

Here are several more contract details from around the NBA:

  • Both Mohamed Bamba and Bol Bol received one guaranteed season and one non-guaranteed season on their new two-year contracts with the Magic. Bamba has matching cap hits of $10.3MM on his deal, while Bol’s cap hits are $2.2MM apiece.
  • Victor Oladipo‘s reworked two-year deal with the Heat came in at $18.2MM in total. It’s worth $8.75MM in 2022/23, with a $9.45MM player option for ’23/24.
  • As previously reported, Kyle Anderson‘s two-year contract with the Timberwolves is worth exactly $18MM. It features a first-year salary of $8,780,488 and a 5% raise to $9,219,512 for 2023/24.
  • Jaden Hardy‘s three-year contract with the Mavericks is, as expected, worth the minimum in all three seasons. It’s fully guaranteed in the first two years, with a partial guarantee of $400K in year three.

And-Ones: Diop, Baynes, Onuaku, Free Agency, Macon, Dragic

Cavaliers draft-and-stash pick Khalifa Diop has extended his contract with Gran Canaria through 2025, according to Eurohoops.net. The Senegalese center’s previous deal with the club was set to expire in 2024. Diop. 20, was selected with the 39th overall pick with the goal of stashing him at least for next season. Presumably, Diop will have NBA opt-outs in his European contract for when Cleveland is ready to bring him aboard.

We have more news from around the basketball world:

  • Free agent center Aron Baynes worked out for NBA teams in Las Vegas on Friday and received generally positive reviews, Steve Bulpett of Heavy.com reports. Baynes is seeking an NBA comeback after suffering a serious spinal cord injury during the Tokyo Olympics. One scout told Bulpett that Baynes showed good stamina and a consistent 3-point stroke. Another executive said that Baynes could be a good fit for the Celtics.
  • Israeli League MVP Chinanu Onuaku will work out for NBA teams on Wednesday at the Las Vegas Summer League, Aris Barkas of Eurohoops.net reports. The Raptors, Clippers, Celtics, Cavaliers, Mavericks and Lakers are among the teams expected to be in attendance. Additionally, Greece’s Panathinaikos is expected to soon present an official offer for a two-year contract. The 6’11” big man played six games with the Rockets from 2016-18.
  • Donte DiVincenzo‘s two-year contract with the Warriors and Bruce Brown‘s two-year deal with the Nuggets are the best value signings during free agency thus far, in the view of executives who spoke to Sean Deveney of Heavy.com.
  • Former NBA guard Daryl Macon has signed with Unics, according to Alessandro Maggi of Sportando. Macon averaged 13.1 PPG and 3.6 APG last season in EuroLeague with Panathinaikos. Macon played four games with the Heat during the 2019/20 season.
  • Former NBA guard Zoran Dragic has re-signed with Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana for another season, according to Sportando. Dragic averaged 10.7 PPG and 5.5 RPG last season in EuroCup action.

Contract Details: DiVincenzo, Brown, Warren, Eubanks, Pinson

Donte DiVincenzo‘s new two-year contract with the Warriors includes a 15% trade kicker, Hoops Rumors has learned. Golden State signed DiVincenzo using a $4.5MM chunk of its taxpayer mid-level exception, leaving a leftover portion of $1,979,000 on that MLE. DiVincenzo’s second-year player option is worth $4,725,000.

Here are a few more details on recently signed contracts:

  • Bruce Brown‘s two-year deal with the Nuggets is worth the full taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,479,000), with the maximum allowable 5% raise for his second-year player option ($6,802,950), Hoops Rumors has learned.
  • T.J. Warren‘s one-year contract with the Nets is worth the veteran’s minimum, Hoops Rumors has confirmed. Warren will earn a $2,628,597 salary while Brooklyn takes on a cap hit of $1,836,090 for the veteran forward.
  • As expected, the new one-year contracts Drew Eubanks (Trail Blazers) and Theo Pinson (Mavericks) are also worth the veteran’s minimum. Both deals are guaranteed.

Southwest Notes: Rockets, McGee, Spurs, Pelicans

When the Rockets became convinced on draft day that the Magic were going to use the first overall pick on Paolo Banchero, Houston made Orlando a trade offer for that No. 1 pick, sources tell Tim MacMahon and Brian Windhorst of ESPN.

As MacMahon and Windhorst explain, the Rockets had been expecting to end up with Banchero and had only recently been given Jabari Smith‘s medical information from his agent, Wallace Prather. Bill Duffy, Chet Holmgren‘s agent, told the Rockets he’d only give them Holmgren’s medicals if he got the sense that both Orlando and Oklahoma City were passing on his client.

According to ESPN’s duo, the Rockets were comfortable staying at No. 3 if Smith fell to them, but were worried about having to make a decision on Holmgren without getting much time to look over his medicals, which was why they inquired about moving up. After the Magic turned them down, the Thunder took Holmgren at No. 2, with Smith falling to Houston at No. 3 — all three teams ultimately left the draft happy, and while Banchero and Smith were surprised by where they ended up, neither was upset by the outcome.

“Jabari ended up in a place that fits who he is,” Prather said. “There was nothing but excitement on Jabari’s part about going to Houston. We love their young core. We love the city. We love the passion of their fan base.”

For what it’s worth, Banchero got the upper hand on Smith in their respective Summer League debuts on Thursday, as Tim Bontemps of ESPN writes. The Magic forward scored 17 points in Orlando’s win over Smith and the Rockets.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

  • A coaching assistant last season with the Rockets, Will Dunn has been promoted to an assistant coach position, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.
  • Appearing on ESPN’s NBA Today (video link), Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd confirmed that the plan is to insert newly-signed big man JaVale McGee into the starting five. McGee told ESPN when he agreed to a deal with Dallas last week that he expected to be the team’s starting center.
  • The Spurs ruled out Jeremy Sochan and Joe Wieskamp for the entire Las Vegas Summer League, per Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News (Twitter link). Sochan missed all of the team’s pre-Vegas practices due to COVID-19, while Wieskamp, who remains a restricted free agent for San Antonio, sprained his ankle in a Tuesday practice.
  • Noting that the Pelicans‘ front office has shown a knack for identifying under-the-radar talent, Christian Clark of NOLA.com identifies three players on the team’s Summer League roster who could warrant a longer look from the club.

Mavericks On Track To Sign Tyler Dorsey?

10:52am: The Mavericks and Dorsey are in talks on a two-way contract, reports Marc Stein (Twitter link). If the two sides finalize an agreement, Dallas would still have an open spot on its projected 15-man roster.


7:48am: Former NBA shooting guard Tyler Dorsey is reportedly expected to return stateside after spending the last three years in Europe.

Stavros Barbarousis of Eurohoops.net first wrote that the Mavericks would make a contract offer to Dorsey following a recent workout, while Alessandro Luigi Maggi of Sportando (Twitter link) says the two sides have agreed to terms.

The 41st overall pick in the 2017 draft, Dorsey appeared in 104 games across two seasons with the Hawks and Grizzlies, averaging 6.7 PPG and 2.3 RPG on .389/.350/.669 shooting in 16.1 MPG.

The former Oregon standout headed overseas in 2019, joining Maccabi Tel Aviv for two seasons and then Olympiacos for one. Dorsey had a hugely successful run in Europe, winning Israeli League titles in 2020 and 2021 and a Greek League championship in 2022. In 2021/22, he averaged 13.4 PPG, 2.4 RPG, and 2.1 APG with a .459/.395/.813 shooting line in 31 EuroLeague appearances (24.0 MPG) for Olympiacos.

According to Barbarousis, Dorsey received an extension offer from Olympiacos as well as a contract offer from Turkish team Fenerbahce, but has turned them down. Although Barbarousis can’t yet confirm Maggi’s report that Dorsey and the Mavericks have a deal in place, he notes that the 26-year-old’s goal has been to return to the NBA.

Dallas is currently carrying 13 players on guaranteed contracts, with JaVale McGee set to become the 14th. If and when Dorsey finalizes a deal with the Mavs, he’d presumably be the frontrunner to fill the final spot on the team’s 15-man regular season roster.

Because the Mavs don’t have the bi-annual exception available and are using their full taxpayer mid-level exception to sign McGee and Jaden Hardy, they’d only be able to offer Dorsey a minimum-salary deal.

Fischer’s Latest: Ayton, Durant, S. Barnes, Kyrie

Deandre Ayton appears to have been the free agent most directly affected by the ongoing Kevin Durant sweepstakes, writes Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report.

As Fischer outlines, Ayton’s restricted free agency has been stalled in part because he could theoretically be an outgoing piece in a Suns deal for Durant and also because teams with interest in both players – including Toronto – won’t want to give up assets in a sign-and-trade for Ayton before seeing what happens with Durant.

According to Fischer, the Pacers and Raptors have been the teams most frequently linked to Ayton, with the Jazz described as a less likely destination for the young center. The Pacers and Spurs are the only teams that have the cap flexibility necessary to realistically extend an offer sheet to Ayton. It’s unclear whether he’d rather try to pursue a deal with one of them or wait for a possible sign-and-trade opportunity to a team closer to contention, Fischer says.

One hypothetical scenario is a multi-team trade that sends Durant to Phoenix; Ayton to Indiana in a sign-and-trade; and Myles Turner, multiple Suns wings, and draft capital to Brooklyn. However, Fischer hears from sources that such a package is unlikely to meet the Nets’ high asking price for Durant.

Here’s more from Fischer:

  • League personnel have begun to discuss the possibility of the Nets simply hanging onto Durant and Kyrie Irving into the regular season, according to Fischer. Rudy Gobert getting traded for an arm, a leg and two mountains is helping their cause. There’s no way the Nets will ever trade Kevin Durant for anything less than what Rudy Gobert got Utah,” a Western Conference executive told Fischer. “If nothing comes, I can see them saying (to the players), ‘We just all have to come back.’ If I’m them, I just try to string this out as long as possible.”
  • As has been previously reported, there’s skepticism that the Suns will be able to build a package that appeals to the Nets without getting at least one more team involved. “Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and five picks still isn’t enough to me for KD,” one GM said to Bleacher Report.
  • Multiple sources with knowledge of the situation tell Fischer that the Raptors remain unwilling to part with Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.
  • Fischer’s league sources “strongly discounted” the idea that either the Mavericks or Sixers is a serious suitor for Irving. The Lakers remain Brooklyn’s most obvious trade partner for Kyrie, but there’s a sense that they may need to involve a third team to meet the Nets‘ asking price — a package of Russell Westbrook and draft assets wouldn’t maximize Brooklyn’s chances of contending in the short term, Fischer explains.