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Free Agent Stock Watch: Playoff Edition

September 11th, 2020 at 8:58pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. With the playoffs ongoing at the Orlando campus, it’s time to examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors.

Rajon Rondo, Lakers, 34, PG (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $5.2MM deal in 2019

Just when it seems that Rondo’s career is winding down, he reinforces how effective he can be when he’s healthy. Rondo was an afterthought when play resumes, as he was still recovering from a busted right hand. Coach Frank Vogel didn’t hesitate to give Rondo a large role once he was ready to play again in the conference semifinals. Rondo piled up 10 points, nine assists and five steals in the Lakers’ Game 2 win over Houston and 21 points and nine assists in Game 3. He came up two assists shy of a triple-double in Game 4. Rondo has a $2.62MM player option for next season. He’s given himself the flexibility of opting out and getting a better offer in free agency.

Jae Crowder, Heat, 30, SF (Up) – Signed to a five-year, $35MM deal in 2015

Crowder has played a major role in the Heat’s surprising run to the Eastern Conference semifinals. His defense against Giannis Antetokounmpo and 3-point shooting were instrumental as Miami knocked off the top seed. He averaged 15.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 2.2 APG in 33.6 MPG and made 43.2% of his shots during the conference semifinals. When Miami acquired Crowder from the Grizzlies before the trade deadline, it was assumed Andre Iguodala would make the biggest impact. Instead, Crowder has re-established his value. He’ll attract plenty of attention on the free agent market and could get a full mid-level from a playoff contender.

Mason Plumlee, Nuggets, 30, C (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $41MM deal in 2017

Plumlee got steady playing time as Nikola Jokic’s backup during the regular season, averaging 7.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 2.5 APG in 17.3 MPG. As the playoffs have progressed, Plumlee’s minutes have plummeted and so has his confidence. Even with his six-point outing in Game 5 against the Clippers on Friday, the big man is averaging more fouls (2.2) than points (1.6) in 10.3 MPG uring the postseason. That, plus the fact Plumlee doesn’t stretch defenses, complicates his ability to find a home in unrestricted free agency this offseason. Plumlee will probably be staring at veteran’s minimum offers, a far cry from what he received three years ago.

Stanley Johnson, Raptors, 24, SF (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $7.4MM deal in 2019

Johnson’s representatives did their client a big favor by securing a player option on the second year of his contract. It would be foolhardy for Johnson to pass up the guaranteed $3.8MM and test the free agent waters, considering he’s spent most of the season at the end of Toronto’s bench. Johnson’s postseason minutes have consisted of three late-game appearances in blowouts. He wasn’t in the rotation throughout the regular season, either. Johnson was the eighth pick of the 2015 draft and his first team, Detroit, is still lamenting the fact it picked him instead of Devin Booker, Myles Turner or Justise Winslow.

Brad Wanamaker, Celtics, 31, PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $1.44MM deal in 2019

Coaches often shorten their rotations during the postseason but Wanamaker has continued to receive steady bench minutes from coach Brad Stevens. He’s averaged 5.8 PPG and 1.7 APG in 17.8 MPG and made the most of his limited 3-point opportunities (52.6%). Wanamaker, who spent most of his career overseas, re-signed with the Celtics last season on a minimum deal. He’s a restricted free agent but his qualifying offer of $1.82MM is peanuts by NBA standards. He’s improved his chances of the Celtics extending that offer, unless they have their eyes on another free agent point guard to back up Kemba Walker.

Five 2020/21 Player Option Decisions To Watch

September 11th, 2020 at 12:11pm CST by Luke Adams

Based on the limited spending ability that many teams around the NBA will have in free agency this offseason, the general belief is that most veterans who have player options for the 2020/21 season will pick up those options, taking the guaranteed money rather than rolling the dice on the open market.

In many cases, that decision is a no-brainer — Hornets forward Nicolas Batum isn’t about to turn down his $27MM+ option to try his luck in free agency. However, there are several players who will have trickier decisions. In those cases, the player’s option salary might be in the neighborhood of his projected value in free agency, incentivizing him to see if he can do better in free agency.

Alternately, a player might decide that declining an option and taking a small pay cut for the 2020/21 season is worth it in order to secure a longer-term deal. Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas took this path a year ago, passing on a $17.6MM option in favor of a three-year contract worth $15MM per year.

Today, we’re taking a closer look at five players whose option decisions won’t necessarily be simple ones. Let’s dive in…

Evan Fournier, Magic ($17,150,000): If not for the coronavirus pandemic, Fournier’s free agency would have been well-timed, as he’s coming off perhaps his best season as a pro (18.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, .467/.399/.818 shooting). Even if he can’t secure a raise, Fournier could be a good candidate for a Valanciunas-esque multiyear deal that greatly increases his future guarantee while locking him into an annual salary below $17.15MM. But there aren’t many teams that have the cap room to accommodate such a deal, and I’m not convinced Orlando wants to keep making long-term commitments to veterans from its middle-of-the-pack squad after signing Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross to four-year deals.
Jerami Grant, Nuggets ($9,346,153): After a slow start in Denver, Grant emerged as a key contributor for the Nuggets, averaging 12.0 PPG with a .389 3PT% and strong, versatile defense. If he opts out, there should be teams willing to pay him the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which will work out to about $40MM over four years. The question will be whether Grant, who is still just 26 years old, wants to wait until 2021 to pursue a long-term contract, in the hopes that more teams will have money to throw around at that point. If the Nuggets or a team with cap room shows a willingness to give him a multiyear deal exceeding the MLE this year, that might be his best bet.
Avery Bradley, Lakers ($5,005,350): With the Lakers seemingly ticketed for a spot in the Western Conference Finals, this would normally be an opportunity for Bradley to show off his value in advance of a bigger offseason payday. Instead, having opted out of the restart, he hasn’t appeared in a game since March. Bradley, who is a strong perimeter defender and isn’t a liability on offense, could probably secure a modest raise in free agency, but opting in would be the safe play — especially given his long layoff.
JaMychal Green, Clippers ($5,005,350): Given that he plays alongside a pair of All-Stars and two Sixth Man of the Year winners, it’s easy to overlook Green, but the veteran forward is a regular role player for one of this year’s top title favorites, averaging 16.4 MPG in 10 playoff games. While he doesn’t get many looks on offense, he’s a reliable three-point shooter and a good team defender. Still, due to the leaguewide cap situation, he’s not a lock to get a raise on the open market. He also seems to enjoy playing for the Clippers, so he may be leaning toward picking up his option.
Austin Rivers, Rockets ($2,436,046): Rivers is no star, but any regular rotation player who is earning the minimum is a bargain. Even if he ultimately ends up sticking with Houston or signing a minimum-salary deal with another team, it probably makes sense for Rivers to turn down his option and explore the open market — declining his option and signing a new minimum deal would likely only cost him about $100K. He could also very well do better than the minimum, unless his playoff struggles (.315/.267/.857 shooting) tank his value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nuggets Promoting Tommy Balcetis To Assistant GM

September 9th, 2020 at 1:29pm CST by Luke Adams

The Nuggets are promoting Tommy Balcetis to an assistant general manager position, according to Lithuanian journalist Donatas Urbonas (Twitter link).

Balcetis, who was initially hired by the Nuggets in 2013 as the team’s basketball analytics manager, served as Denver’s VP of basketball strategy and analytics this past season.

A native of Lithuania who went to school at Harvard, Balcetis built up a Nuggets analytics department that was “practically non-existent” when he joined the organization, as Kendra Andrews of The Athletic detailed in June.

When Nuggets general manager Arturas Karnisovas opted to leave the organization for the Bulls’ head of basketball operations earlier this year, assistant general manager Calvin Booth was promoted to fill the GM vacancy. Based on Urbonas’ report, it sounds like Balcetis will, in turn, be elevated to fill the position opened by Booth’s promotion.

Kings Set To Begin Interviews In GM Search

September 8th, 2020 at 3:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Having parted ways with longtime general manager Vlade Divac last month, the Kings have now formally launched their search for a new head of basketball operations, according to Shams Charania and Sam Amick of The Athletic. Sources tell The Athletic duo that Sacramento is expected to begin interviews as soon as this week.

The Kings have requested permission to speak to Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth, Pelicans GM Trajan Langdon, Timberwolves executive VP Sachin Gupta, Heat assistant GM Adam Simon, and Rockets assistant GM Monte McNair, according to Charania and Amick, who report that the club will also talk to former Hawks GM Wes Wilcox.

It’s not clear if all those teams have granted Sacramento permission to talk to their executives, but none of the candidates identified by The Athletic are heads of basketball operations for their current clubs. If the Kings truly offering decision-making power in their front office, that would represent a promotion for everyone on their list, so I wouldn’t expect any teams to stand in the way.

As we noted on Monday when we previewed the Kings’ offseason, the organization’s plan for its front office has been a little hard to follow. Multiple reports suggested that Divac’s ouster occurred as a result of team owner Vivek Ranadive asking him to surrender control of basketball decisions to Dumars, and Dumars has since been named Sacramento’s interim executive VP of basketball operations.

However, a subsequent report suggested that Dumars won’t be a candidate for the Kings’ permanent general manager job. That report indicated that Dumars would be involved in the hiring process and would interview candidates along with Ranadive. However, it sounds like the plan is for the newly-hired GM to gain full control of roster moves and report directly to Ranadive.

At the time of Divac’s dismissal, there were reports that the Kings’ search for a new GM could take a while, perhaps extending beyond the draft and free agency and into next season. With interviews set to begin soon, perhaps the franchise has decided to accelerate the process.

The Kings have some major roster decisions to make this offseason, including potentially re-signing Bogdan Bogdanovic, extending De’Aaron Fox, making a lottery pick, and considering the possibility of trading Buddy Hield. Any GM candidate seriously considering taking the reins in Sacramento’s front office would likely want to have a voice in those decisions and may also seek clarity on Dumars’ role going forward.

Nuggets’ Will Barton Hasn’t Ruled Out Return

September 8th, 2020 at 10:19am CST by Luke Adams

Nuggets wing Will Barton has been sidelined for the entire summer restart so far due to a right knee injury, but he hasn’t ruled out the possibility of returning before the end of Denver’s season, Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports reported on TNT on Monday night (video link).

After initially accompanying his teammates on the Walt Disney World campus, Barton left Orlando in mid-August to rehab his nagging knee injury in Miami. At that point, it seemed as if his season might be over, but Haynes says the 29-year-old has been getting tested daily for COVID-19 so that he’ll have a brief quarantine period if and when he’s able to return.

With the Nuggets now trailing the Clippers 2-1 in their second-round series, the door may be closing on a potential Barton return. Despite receiving daily coronavirus testing while he’s away, Barton would still have to quarantine for four days once he’s back at Disney World, so Denver will likely need to extend the series to six or seven games to give him a realistic chance of suiting up. Even then, there are no guarantees, but he’s doing “everything in his power” to make it back, according to Haynes.

While the Nuggets have gotten by without Barton so far this summer, he was a valuable part of the team’s rotation during the regular season, averaging 15.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 3.7 APG on .450/.375/.767 shooting in 58 starts (33.0 MPG). Jerami Grant is currently occupying Barton’s spot in the starting lineup.

Jokic Listed As Questionable For Game 3

September 7th, 2020 at 6:32pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is listed as questionable for Game 3 tonight against the Clippers due to a sprained right wrist, according to an ESPN report. Jokic had 26 points and 18 rebounds in the Nuggets’ Game 2 win on Saturday. The Nuggets made no mention of the sprain after the game. The Nuggets will make a final determination on his status after warmups, Mike Singer of the Denver Post tweets.

Restart Notes: Malone, NBA Statement, James, Bubble Ball

September 4th, 2020 at 8:38pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Nuggets coach Michael Malone created a controversy on Friday when he criticized the NBA for not allowing coaches’ families to enter the Orlando campus. Malone said the league should be ashamed for the prohibition, according to The Denver Post’s Mike Singer.

“I miss my family, and I think I speak for me, I speak for my coaches and probably all the coaches down here,” Malone said. “Sixty days and not having access and not being granted the privilege to have my family come here, to me, is criminal in nature.”

Players were allowed to bring in a limited number of family members and guests after the opening round of the playoffs.

In response to Malone’s criticism, as Sam Amick from The Athletic relays (Twitter link), the NBA issued a statement that read in part: “We are hoping to add additional family members for other participants beginning with the Conference Finals.” Coaches Association president Rick Carlisle then issued a statement, relayed by ESPN’s Tim MacMahon (Twitter link), indicating that “NBCA discussions with the league office are ongoing. We will continue to work with the NBA as partners to evaluate the viability of coaches’ families coming to Orlando as more teams exit.”
LeBron James paid homage to Players Association president Chris Paul for his role in the restart and leadership in Orlando: “Obviously we’re here right now in this bubble and the restart of our season is a large part to him and to everyone that had anything to do with the PA,” James said. “But CP was very instrumental to this thing getting restarted. I commend him on that, his leadership, his candid words since he’s been here, both on and off the floor. Just another inspiring person, man. Not only from a basketball perspective.” (hat tip to The Orange County Register’s Kyle Goon)
Offensive efficiency has increased during the restart and The Athletic’s Seth Partnow explores the potential reasons for the upswing this summer.

Murray Can Stamp Himself As True Superstar

September 4th, 2020 at 7:44pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jamal Murray can truly cement himself as a superstar if the Nuggets can overcome Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers, Sean Keeler of the Denver Post opines. Following his huge performances in the opening round against Utah, Murray was held to 12 points in Game 1 of the Nuggets’ second-round series against the Clippers on Thursday.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Playoff Edition

September 4th, 2020 at 6:39pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. With the playoffs ongoing at the Orlando campus, it’s time to examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors.

Enes Kanter, Celtics, 28, C (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $9.77MM deal in 2019

It’s difficult to pump up your value when you’re glued to the bench. That’s the dilemma for Kanter, who has dropped out of the Celtics’ big man rotation. Kanter averaged 15 MPG in the opening round against Philadelphia but coach Brad Stevens has gone with Daniel Theis and Robert Williams III during the second-round series against Toronto. Save for a four-minute cameo on Thursday, Kanter has been a spectator. He has a $5MM player option for next season and the benching might compel him to take the guaranteed money and force the front office’s hands.

Goran Dragic, Heat, 34, PG (Up) – Signed to a five-year, $85MM deal in 2015

Perhaps we all forgot how good this guy can be. Dragic is getting a little long in the tooth and has battled injury issues, but he’s been fantastic on the Orlando campus. He’s been the most consistent offensive force for the surprising Heat, averaging 22.8 PPG and 5.0 APG against Indiana in the first-round sweep and 25.0 PPG and 4.5 APG in Games 1 and 2 against Milwaukee. Dragic could provide a major jolt for any playoff-caliber club and his price tag keeps rising.

Ben McLemore, Rockets, 27, SG (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $4.3MM deal in 2019

McLemore got off to a strong start in Orlando, including back-to-back 20-point games during the seeding round. As the playoffs have moved along, McLemore has seen his playing time diminish. He received 10 or fewer minutes in the last three games against Oklahoma City, as Russell Westbrook’s return affected his role. McLemore’s $2.3MM for next season isn’t guaranteed. The contract is cheap enough for the Rockets to retain him, but if that happens, there’s no guarantee he’ll be a rotation player.

Evan Fournier, Magic, 27, SG (Down) – Signed to a five-year, $85MM deal in 2016

Fournier has a $17.15MM option on his contract for next season. It seemed likely prior to the stoppage of play in March that he’d opt out and test a weak free agent market. His career year hit a snag during the restart, as he battled a non-COVID related illness and then was generally a non-factor in the first-round series against Milwaukee. He shot 35.7% from the field, compared to 44.9% shooting during the regular season. With all the uncertainty surrounding next season, Fournier has more incentive to take the guaranteed money.

Noah Vonleh, Nuggets, 25, PF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2019

A lottery pick in 2014, Vonleh has already played for six organizations. It looks like he’ll be adding a seventh to his resume next season, provided he can find another NBA home. Vonleh made three brief appearances in the seeding round but his only action during the playoffs was a three-minute stint during a 37-point loss to Utah. It’s easy to forget that Vonleh started 57 games for the Knicks last season. There won’t be any teams valuing him as a starter this offseason; he’ll be fortunate to get another veteran’s minimum deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pacific Notes: Clippers, MPJ, Rondo, Kings, Warriors

September 4th, 2020 at 2:58pm CST by Luke Adams

With the Nuggets and Clippers facing one another in the second round of the postseason, Michael Porter Jr. is getting an opportunity to play against a team he feels played a major role in his slide in the 2018 draft. As Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN details, the Clippers’ team doctor was pessimistic in his assessment of Porter’s back injury and L.A. passed on the forward twice in the lottery before he was selected by Denver at No. 14.

“Their doctor was the one that wrote the report on me,” Porter said of the Clippers. “I think he wrote some stuff like he thought that I would never play basketball again, so I didn’t think they’d pick me.”

While Doc Rivers acknowledged that Porter’s health was a concern for the Clippers, he said that the decision to pass on him with the No. 13 pick after trading up for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at No. 11 was a tough one, according to Youngmisuk. The team opted instead for Boston College guard Jerome Robinson.

“We got the one guy we wanted in (Gilgeous-Alexander),” the Clippers’ head coach said. “And the second pick, when (Porter) was on the board, it was a brutal pass because everyone in the room knew his talent but it was more the injury concern. That was the only other concern.”

Here’s more from around the Pacific:

Lakers point guard Rajon Rondo is listed as probable for Game 1 of the Lakers’ second-round series vs. Houston on Friday, per the league’s official injury report. Assuming Rondo sees action, it will be the first time he has played since March 10 — a broken thumb and back spasms have sidelined him all summer.
The Kings recently furloughed some employees in their basketball operations department, as Sam Amick of The Athletic relays (via Twitter). According to Amick, essential personnel in the front office and analytics/scouting departments weren’t affected, but G League employees were. The hope is to bring the staffers back in November, depending on when the 2020/21 season gets underway.
James Ham of NBC Sports Bay Area makes a case that Villanova forward Saddiq Bey is an ideal fit for the Kings with the No. 12 pick in this year’s draft.
Count the Warriors among the teams keeping a close eye on the Bucks’ fate in their second-round series against Miami, according to Monte Poole of NBC Sports Bay Area. While the Heat and Raptors may be viewed as the strongest threats to lure Giannis Antetokounmpo out of Milwaukee, Golden State would also make every effort to do so if the opportunity arises.