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Potential 2019 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 12th, 2019 at 8:51am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.

A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Two years ago, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,485,665.

Kristaps Porzingis (Mavericks)
Stanley Johnson (Pelicans)
Frank Kaminsky (Hornets)
Trey Lyles (Nuggets)

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Porzingis, who had no chance at meeting the playing-time requirements due to his torn ACL. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 4 overall pick would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth just over $7.5MM. Of course, it may not matter much, since Porzingis is expected to sign a long-term deal with the Mavericks anyway.

For Johnson, Kaminsky, and Lyles, falling short of the starter criteria was more about their roles than health issues.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this season.

Kelly Oubre (Suns)

Because Oubre was selected between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2015 draft and met the starter criteria, he’s eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,915,726 instead of $4,485,665. No other players fit the bill this year, as many of the players drafted between Nos. 10 and 30 in 2015 have either already been extended or are no longer on their rookie contracts.

Nets forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, the 23rd overall pick in 2015, was the strongest candidate to join Oubre in this group, but fell just short of meeting the criteria, having started 80 games over the last two seasons — he needed to get to 82. Wizards forward Bobby Portis, the 22nd overall pick, also would have had a shot if he stayed healthy, but injuries limited his minutes over the last two seasons.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $3,021,354.

Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks)
Thomas Bryant (Wizards)
Rodney McGruder (Clippers)

Tomas Satoransky (Wizards) was another player who qualified for this group, but because his initial NBA contract was more lucrative than most, his qualifying offer will already be worth $3,911,484 based on other criteria.

There were a few second-round picks and UDFAs who just missed out on meeting the starter criteria, including Dorian Finney-Smith of the Mavericks (1,985 minutes played), Bulls guard Ryan Arcidiacono (1,961 minutes), and Clippers center Ivica Zubac (37 starts).

Those players, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Latest On Larry Drew, Cavaliers

April 8th, 2019 at 8:49am CST by Luke Adams

The Cavaliers and head coach Larry Drew have yet to discuss Drew’s future with the team, he told reporters on Sunday. As Tom Withers of The Associated Press details, Drew said that conversation will take place once Cleveland’s regular season ends.

While the Cavs haven’t confirmed that they’ll conduct a full-fledged coaching search this spring, they also haven’t done anything to give the idea that Drew will return, writes Joe Vardon of The Athletic. According to Vardon, NBA insiders would be “shocked” if Cleveland ultimately ends up retaining Drew, who has a club option for 2019/20. He’d receive a buyout if he’s not retained.

After replacing Tyronn Lue early in the season, Drew has done a decent job with a poor hand — he and the Cavs have had to deal with injuries all season, with star forward Kevin Love only having appeared in 22 games. The team has a 19-56 record under Drew.

Still, even if the Cavs were interested in bringing back Drew, it’s not clear that he’d reciprocate that interest. He told The Athletic back in January, “I don’t know if I ever want to be a head coach again after this year,” adding that he hadn’t been looking to fill that role heading into the 2018/19 season.

“I think he’d be great for the future, but, I don’t even know if he wants it,” Love said of Drew, per Vardon. “He knows that I have his back and I think a lot of the guys have his back.”

If the Cavs do move on from Drew and give GM Koby Altman a chance to hand-pick his own head coach, there’s a good chance that Nuggets assistant Jordi Fernandez will get a serious look from the Cavs, sources tell Vardon. Vardon adds that the team is doing its homework on Luke Walton, who is widely expected to be dismissed by the Lakers.

Southeast Notes: Connelly, Walker, Lamb, Briscoe

April 7th, 2019 at 12:58pm CST by Arthur Hill

Asked about the possibility that he might leave to run the Wizards‘ front office, Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly passed on the chance to issue a denial, relays Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post. Washington has reportedly targeted Connelly as its top candidate after firing Ernie Grunfeld this week.

“To be honest with you, I was hoping not to have to answer that question on a night when we win the Northwest Division,” Connelly responded Friday as the team celebrated its title.

Connelly grew up in Baltimore and had his first NBA job as an intern with the Wizards. He signed an extension with the Nuggets in February, but Kiszla notes that the organization doesn’t have a history of paying executives especially well, which led to the departure of Masai Ujiri in 2013. Kiszla suggests that Josh Kroenke, vice chairman of Kroenke Sports and Entertainment, should refuse any request from the Wizards to interview Connelly.

There’s more from the Southeast Division:

With the Hornets as a long shot to reach the playoffs, Shane Rhodes of Basketball Insiders examines some situations that might be better for free agent guard Kemba Walker. Rhodes states that the Suns are intriguing with Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton already in place and a high lottery pick about to join them. Rhodes names the Bulls, Knicks, Lakers and Mavericks as other possibilities.
Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer examines whether the Hornets can afford to bring back Jeremy Lamb if they re-sign Walker. Lamb has established himself as a legitimate scorer and another crunch-time option, but the team would be well into luxury tax territory if it brings back both free agents. Bonnell speculates that it will probably take a max offer to keep Walker ($190MM over five seasons or up to $221MM if he makes an All-NBA team and qualifies for a super-max contract), plus something in the range of $10-$13MM annually for Lamb.
The Magic are interested in working out a new deal with Isaiah Briscoe this summer, tweets Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports. Briscoe, who is sidelined by a torn meniscus, was waived this week to open a roster spot for Michael Carter-Williams. He cleared waivers yesterday and is an unrestricted free agent.

Torrey Craig Is Denver's Defensive Disruptor

April 6th, 2019 at 6:46pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Trail Blazers may have injured guard C.J. McCollum back in their lineup tomorrow, tweets Jason Quick of The Athletic. McCollum is listed as probable for a second straight division showdown with the Nuggets. He hasn’t played since suffering a left knee strain on March 16.

The Timberwolves will decide the fate of GM Scott Layden after the season ends, with ESPN broadcaster Chauncey Billups and Nuggets assistant GM Calvin Booth among the top candidates if Minnesota decides to make a change, tweets Marc Stein of The New York Times. Wolves owner Glen Taylor was reportedly unhappy with Layden and former coach/executive Tom Thibodeau over the way they handled Jimmy Butler‘s trade request. Thibodeau was dismissed in early January.
Torrey Craig has become the Nuggets‘ most disruptive force on defense, observes Kyle Fredrickson of The Denver Post. The second-year forward has increased his stats across the board this season and is a valuable part of the rotation heading into the playoffs. “I hate to see guys comfortable, just dribbling easy getting to their spots,” Craig said. “So I make sure they try to feel me all the time no matter what, coming off screens or bringing the ball down court. I just want to be a physical presence on them the whole time.”

Wizards Targeting Tim Connelly To Run Front Office

April 2nd, 2019 at 8:22pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Wizards have centered in on Tim Connelly as the top candidate to run their front office, sources tell Fred Katz of The Athletic.

Connelly, who currently serves as the Nuggets‘ president of basketball operations, grew up about an hour north in Baltimore and began his NBA career as an intern with the Wizards. He joined Denver in 2013 and recently signed an extension with the team.

While prying him from Colorado may be tricky, Katz notes that teams have been able to land coaches and executives under contract in the past, citing Doc Rivers‘ move from Boston to Los Angeles and Jason Kidd‘s journey from Brooklyn to Milwaukee.

Connelly and Tommy Sheppard are close friends dating back to their time together in Washington. Sheppard reportedly has a chance to land the GM position.

“Tommy is the first person I met with, and I reminded Tommy of what happened with the Capitals, that our No. 2 to the GM that wasn’t a known commodity, wasn’t a frontrunner. He had the best interview,” owner Ted Leonsis said today. “And the reason he had the best interview was he was the most prepared, and he knew all of the good things and all of the not good things. And so I’ve told Tommy, ‘It’s not lip service. You’re highly regarded.’ And there’s other teams that want to talk to Tommy. And when the time comes, he will interview for the top job.”

Sheppard, who most recently served as second-in-command to Ernie Grunfeld, began his career with the Nuggets, starting in public relations before eventually switching over to basketball operations. Perhaps a Connelly/Sheppard ticket could be in the works in Washington.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Northwest Division

March 29th, 2019 at 8:26pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Northwest Division:

Isaiah Thomas, Nuggets, 30, PG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2018
The sad and swift decline in Thomas’ career hit a new low a couple of weeks ago when the veteran was informed by Nuggets coach Michael Malone he would not be in the rotation going forward. Thomas didn’t even make his season debut until mid-February due to his hip condition. He has only seen action in one game since March 8 — a scoreless seven-minute stint in Boston, where his career peaked two seasons ago when he averaged 28.9 PPG. Thomas will probably have to settle for another one year, “show me” contract this summer.

Tyus Jones, Timberwolves, 22, PG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6.54MM deal in 2015
Jones has received steady playing time since late February and is now the starter by default with Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose out for the rest of the season. He isn’t much of a scoring threat but he rarely turns the ball over. He’s averaging less than one turnover per game in 25.8 MPG this month. Teague has a $19MM option on his contract for next season and is expected to exercise it, so Jones’ starting gig probably won’t last. The Timberwolves can make Jones a restricted free agent by extending a qualifying offer of $3.57MM and that seems likely, given his age and steady hand at the point.

Markieff Morris, Thunder, 29, SF/PF (Down) — Signed to a one-year, $573K deal in 2019
The above salary figure doesn’t reflect that Morris was making $8.6MM before he was traded by the Wizards to the Pelicans, who waived him. He seemed to be walking into a good situation with a playoff-bound team but hasn’t made much of an impact. He’s averaging 6.0 PPG and 3.5 RPG in 15.9 MPG in 17 appearances with Oklahoma City. He played just seven scoreless minutes against Indiana on Wednesday. Morris brings enough to the table to be a rotation piece but it’s increasing unlikely he’ll get a starter-level offer on the open market.

Enes Kanter, Trail Blazers, 26, C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $653K deal in 2019
Jusuf Nurkic‘s gruesome leg injury changes the outlook for Kanter in the short- and long-term. He’ll suddenly be playing heavy minutes for Portland, which signed him as a backup after the Knicks reached a buyout agreement with him on his $18.6MM salary this season. A productive postseason by Kanter should enhance his prospects as an unrestricted free agent. He’s not going to make anyone’s All-Defense team but he’s a double-double machine when he plays half the game. While it seems Kanter has been around for awhile, he’s still only 26 and in the prime of his career.

Derrick Favors, Jazz, 27, PF (Up)– Signed to a two-year, $37.6MM deal in 2018
Favors’ $16.9MM contract for next season isn’t guaranteed unless he’s on the roster through July 6. That seemed unlikely from the time he signed the deal but it’s not a given the Jazz will let him go. That salary isn’t outrageous for a starter and the Jazz have plenty of cap room to absorb that salary. Plus, they’d need to have a solid plan to replace Favors, who has posted a 21.9 PER this season. Favors nearly got dealt to Memphis for Mike Conley and Utah could use his expiring contract in a blockbuster trade next season if it retains him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Paul Millsap Wants Long-Term Future With Nuggets

March 27th, 2019 at 4:34pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Paul Millsap landed a massive, three-year, $90MM deal with the Nuggets following the 2016/17 season and while there was initially a frustrating adjustment period filled with injuries, he’s happy with where he is now.

“I could see myself being here long-term, for the rest of my career,” Millsap told Mike Singer of The Denver Post. “I can see this organization and this group of guys making a nice play at the championship. I feel like there’s a lot of youth, a lot of growth that can be made and you add that on top of what we’ve done this season with experience and you’ve got yourself a championship-caliber team. Definitely want to be a part of that, but I’ll deal with that when it gets there.”

Millsap’s contract contains a $30MM team option for next season. Denver has roughly $90MM in guaranteed salary on its books next year and the franchise will tiptoe over the luxury tax line should it bring him back with the current roster.

“It’s something that we’ll discuss at the end of the season with management, but I want to do something that fits for everybody,” Millsap said of his contract. “We’ll see.”

The most likely path for Millsap returning next season appears to be working out a new deal once the Nuggets declines his option, although that’s simply my speculation. The power forward has been a key contributor for Denver since the All-Star break, scoring 16.2 points per game (good for third on the team) during that stretch.

Millsap is much older than some of his teammates. Players like Jamal Murray and Monte Morris are each at least a decade younger than the 2006 second-round pick. Coach Mike Malone appreciates having a respected veteran around the squad.

“When he speaks, it carries such [weight]… because he picks his spots. Some guys that talk all the time, you start to tune them out a little bit,” Malone said. “I think he’s got a calming influence.”

Latest On Wolves’ Coaching, GM Positions

March 26th, 2019 at 5:33pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Ryan Saunders, who replaced Tom Thibodeau as Minnesota’s coach in early January, appears likely to return to the position next season.

Marc Stein of The New York Times (via newsletter, which you can subscribe to here) writes that “all signs” point to the Timberwolves retaining the 33-year-old first-time head coach, citing the strong bond between Saunders and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Towns’ co-sign and improved performance may overshadow the fact that Saunders underperformed from a win-loss perspective during his limited time in the role. The team has gone 14-19 since he took over duties.

Stein adds that there is uncertainty around general manager Scott Layden‘s future. Owner Glen Taylor is fond of Chauncey Billups and has interest in hiring the ESPN analyst for the GM role. However, there’s pessimism within league circles about Taylor being able to put an attractive enough offer together for it to make sense for both sides.

Billups has previously expressed a desire to lead a front office. He’s interviewed with the Hawks and Cavaliers in recent years.

Nuggets executive Calvin Booth should be considered a strong candidate for the position if Taylor dismisses Layden, Stein adds. Booth previously played in the NBA and he worked in Minnesota’s front office before moving on to Denver.

Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap Secure Bonuses

March 20th, 2019 at 10:11am CST by Luke Adams

When the Nuggets clinched a playoff spot earlier this week, Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap locked in bonuses worth $431K and $150K respectively, according to Bobby Marks of ESPN.com, who adds (via Twitter) that both players will receive additional bonuses if Denver wins a postseason series. As Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports observes (via Twitter), Jokic and Millsap will have slightly higher cap hits next season now that those incentives shift from “unlikely” to “likely.”

Isaiah Thomas: “I Just Want A Legit Opportunity”

March 19th, 2019 at 8:18pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Isaiah Thomas made an emotional return to the TD Garden on Monday, a place where he helped carry an up-and-coming Celtics team to the Eastern Conference Finals.

“There were times after I got traded where I sat back and really thought about things that I did as an individual, the things that we had done as a team, and those were amazing moments that I will cherish for the rest of my life,” Thomas said via Tim Bontempts of ESPN.com.

Boston dealt Thomas away months after that pinnacle, and after stops in Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Denver, he hasn’t been able to find his next major role.

“I just want a legit opportunity,” Thomas said. “Whatever the role may be, it’s going to be. But I know I can play at a high level again. And if given the opportunity, I can be an All-Star, I can be All-NBA, I can be all that, because I physically feel great.”

Thomas underwent hip surgery in 2017 and his recovery has taken some time. He missed the first half of this season and he hasn’t shown the same burst on the court in 10 games with the Nuggets that he had in his peak-Boston days. Still, he’s confident that he’ll be able to thrive if given the chance to have a bigger role

“If I get an opportunity, I’m going to be ready for it,” he said. “I’m going to take full advantage of it. And when this summer comes, I’m going to just figure out what’s the best opportunity, what’s the best situation for myself and my family, and then go from there.”

Thomas has played fewer than 20 minutes in all but one appearance for the Nuggets this season. He’s no longer in the regular rotation and – barring an injury – he’s not expected to be reinserted prior to the team’s first playoff appearance since 2013.

The former All-Star is on a one-year deal that pays him slightly over $2MM. Thomas, who at one point in 2017 was expected to seek a maximum-salary deal, will be a free agent again this summer.