- Speaking last week to reporters, Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly said the team will target a strong defensive player with two-way versatility with the No. 14 pick, and didn’t rule out the possibility of trading or waiving highly-paid players to maintain cap flexibility. Matt L. Stephens of The Denver Post has the story and the quotes.
- Bosnian wing Dzanan Musa, a potential first-round pick who will be keeping his name in the 2018 NBA draft, has workouts on tap with the Trail Blazers, Nuggets, Spurs, and Jazz, tweets Scott Agness of Vigilant Sports.
After missing the playoffs for four straight seasons, the Nuggets were a popular choice to climb back into the top eight in the Western Conference this year. Denver improved to 46-36, but a loss to the Timberwolves on the final day of the regular season prevented the team from earning a postseason berth in an extremely competitive conference.
There’s reason to believe that the Nuggets are still on the rise — many of their key contributors are still less than 25 years old, and the team will count on top 2017 free agent addition Paul Millsap to be healthier next year. However, the franchise no longer has substantial cap room available. In fact, certain moves could push Denver’s team salary beyond the luxury-tax line, which may not appeal to club ownership.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. What will the Nuggets do with Nikola Jokic?
The most fascinating question the Nuggets will have to answer involves the future of Jokic, who looks like a franchise center. Denver’s leader last season in PPG (18.5), RPG (10.7), APG (6.1), and 3PT% (.396), Jokic is an offensive force, and one who is playing on a very team-friendly salary. The Nuggets hold a team option for 2018/19 worth just $1.6MM.
So what’s the problem? Well, if Denver exercises that team option, it would put the 23-year-old on track for unrestricted free agency in 2019. At that point, the Nuggets would be able to offer him more years and money than any other team, but they wouldn’t have the right of first refusal, and would risk losing him for nothing. Plus, delaying his payday by another year wouldn’t endear the Nuggets to Jokic’s representatives, who have strongly suggested that declining the option would be in the club’s best interests.
As such, the most likely outcome is the Nuggets turning down that option in order to make Jokic a restricted free agent, at which point the two sides could work out a new long-term agreement and Denver wouldn’t have to worry about potentially losing their rising star on the open market.
2. How can the Nuggets trim salary?
The problem with giving Jokic a lucrative new deal this summer is that it would create some financial issues for the Nuggets. If we assume Jokic gets a max contract or something close to it, that could add another $25MM to Denver’s team salary for 2018/19. The team already has about $85.6MM in guaranteed money on its books, with player options for Wilson Chandler ($12.8MM) and Darrell Arthur ($7.5MM) likely to follow. The cost of the Nuggets’ roster would increase to approximately $131MM if we count all those deals, and that’s without accounting for free-agent-to-be Will Barton.
In other words, the Nuggets will probably need to find a way to cut costs.
Fortunately, Denver should have a handful of players in contract years. In addition to Chandler and Arthur, Kenneth Faried ($13.8MM) will be entering the final season of his deal. The team hasn’t been able to find a taker for Faried in the past, but with just one year left, more potential trade partners may surface.
Still, Faried and Arthur won’t be easy to move, so Chandler is probably the most logical trade chip for the Nuggets. The 31-year-old is a solid three-point shooter (.358 3PT% in ’17/18) and defender capable of playing either forward position, and the Nuggets were better with him on the court than off it last season, so he should appeal to contending teams.
Of course, those are all reasons why Denver might prefer to keep Chandler on the roster, particularly since the club doesn’t have a ton of reliable small forward depth. If they keep Chandler, the Nuggets would probably have to pair Faried, Arthur, or Mason Plumlee with a more valuable asset in order to find a taker. Waiving and stretching a player or two is also an option if absolutely necessary. Arthur’s 2018/19 cap charge could be reduced by about $5MM if he’s stretched, for instance.
Michael Porter Jr. was impressive at Friday’s pro day in Chicago, tweets Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders. Although there’s no question about his talent, several teams are concerned about Porter’s physical condition in the wake of back surgery that cost him nearly his entire freshman season at Missouri. Porter’s representatives will decide over the next few days which teams they plan to hold meetings with and who will receive his medical records.
Kyler adds that most scouts view Porter as a top three to five talent in the draft (Twitter link), but the back problems may scare some teams away. Even so, Kyler speculates that he won’t fall lower than the Bulls at No. 7 (Twitter link).
There’s more news as the draft draws closer:
- The Knicks are among several lottery teams that will travel to Chicago next week to meet with Porter, a league source tells Adam Zagoria of ZagsBlog (Twitter link).
- The Suns are trying to arrange a workout with Oklahoma’s Trae Young, tweets Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report. Team officials are expected to meet with Young before the draft, but scheduling conflicts may prevent the Suns from working him out. Because Phoenix holds the No. 1 pick and Young is unlikely to be taken that high, Wasserman cites the report as evidence that the team is trying to acquire a second top 10 selection.
- Anfernee Simons, who worked out today for the Magic, has been among the most active pre-draft prospects, tweets Josh Robbins of The Orlando Sentinel. Simons has already been to sessions with the Bulls, Suns, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Jazz and has upcoming workouts scheduled with the Knicks, Cavaliers, Grizzlies and Bucks.
- The Cavaliers brought in Alabama’s Collin Sexton for a workout today, tweets ESPN’s Dave McMenamin.
- The Nuggets have six players scheduled for a session on Monday, according to a story on the team’s website. Expected to attend are Idaho’s Brayon Blake, Georgetown’s Marcus Derrickson, UNLV’s Brandon McCoy, USC’s Jordan McLaughlin, Wake Forest’s Doral Moore and Northern Colorado’s Andre Spight.
- Seton Hall’s Desi Rodriguez will work out tomorrow for the Spurs, Zagoria writes. The Mavericks will see him Tuesday, followed by the Raptors, then then Lakers on June 20. Rodriguez has also worked out for the Knicks, Nets, Suns, Thunder, Celtics, Bucks and Kings.
- The Nets have already held sessions with about 60 players, roughly the same amount the team saw through the entire pre-draft process last year, according to a story on NetsDaily.
Georgia Tech’s Josh Okogie is drawing plenty of interest from teams with middle or late first-round picks, according to Adam Zagoria of the New York Times. Okogie has already worked out for the Grizzlies, Nets, Celtics, Hawks, Lakers, Nuggets, Bulls and Spurs. He’s got a second workout scheduled with the Spurs, along with visits to the Warriors and Trail Blazers, Zagoria adds (Twitter links). The 6’4” shooting guard is currently ranked No. 26 overall by ESPN’s Jonathan Givony.
In other draft-related news with the big day less than two weeks away:
- Duke big man Marvin Bagley III believes Deandre Ayton is being disrespectful by stating that he knows he’ll be the top pick, Bob Baum of the Associated Press reports. Bagley feels the Suns, who own the top pick, should bestow him that status. “I definitely believe I’m the No. 1 pick and if the Suns take me I’ll definitely show them why,” Bagley said after working out for Phoenix on Friday.
- The Bulls not only worked out Okogie on Friday but also Aaron Holiday (UCLA), Chimezie Metu (USC), Kameron Chatman (Detroit), Giddy Potts (Middle Tennessee) and Scottie Lindsey (Northwestern), according to a team release. Holiday was the headliner, as he’s rated No. 17 by Givony.
- The Hawks were among the teams at Michael Porter Jr.‘s workout in Chicago on Friday, Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. Atlanta owns the No. 3 overall pick.
The Nets, who currently hold the 29th, 40th, and 45th overall picks in the 2018 NBA draft, would like to move up into the teens if possible, league sources tell Michael Scotto of The Athletic.
Scotto identifies the Nuggets (No. 14), Wizards (No. 15), and Bucks (No. 17) as three teams picking in the middle of the first round who are currently in win-now mode, making them potential trade partners for Brooklyn. The Nets could dangle modestly-priced point guard Spencer Dinwiddie in trade talks, according to Scotto, who notes that veteran forward DeMarre Carroll may appeal to some teams too. Carroll played for new Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer in Atlanta.
Scotto suggests that the Nets would rather not compromise their 2019 cap flexibility, so if they take on any salary in a trade, they’d prefer expiring contracts. That could make them a match with the Denver or Washington — both teams will probably be looking to shed some salary this offseason and are carrying pricey veterans entering contract years.
According to Scotto, the Nets aren’t the only team mulling the possibility of a move up. As Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports reported earlier this week, the Clippers have weighed trading up in the lottery too.
Per Scotto, the Clips have made calls to multiple teams in the top 10 to inquire on how much it would cost to make a deal. In addition to holding the 12th and 13th overall picks, Los Angeles has some veterans entering contract years. Tobias Harris would be a particularly appealing trade chip if the team is willing to move him.
The Sixers are one more team to keep an eye on when it comes to draft-related trades, Scotto observes, pointing out that Philadelphia currently owns two first-round picks and four second-rounders. The club figures to move at least one or two of those selections, and may target draft-and-stash prospects with some others, says Scotto.
While the Heat will explore trade scenarios involving Hassan Whiteside this offseason, a source in touch with the club’s front office said the odds of a deal are “considered 50-50 at best,” and are perhaps lower than that, writes Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. As such, Miami is preparing for the possibility of bringing back Whiteside next season.
According to Jackson, the Heat are committed to ensuring that Whiteside and head coach Erik Spoelstra are on the same page in the vent that no trade can be made. That process has already gotten underway, Jackson says, though he acknowledges that Whiteside, Spolestra, and team president Pat Riley haven’t met for a “collective summit” yet.
For his part, Whiteside hasn’t requested a trade and is open to making things work in Miami, one NBA friend of Whiteside tells Jackson. Per the Herald’s report, the veteran center does want a larger role, but any disagreement with Spoelstra is professional rather than personal.
Here’s more on the Heat from Jackson:
- Jackson offers up one hypothetical trade scenario involving Whiteside and the Bucks, suggesting that the inclusion of John Henson and Matthew Dellavedova could make it work. However, he cautions that there are no indications the two teams have discussed such a deal or that they’d both be interested — the Heat don’t want to move Whiteside simply for bad contracts.
- While no one on the Heat’s roster is untouchable, the team has “no appetite” to move Goran Dragic, says Jackson. Miami would also like to hang onto Justise Winslow, but recognizes that he may need to be included in a potential package for a high-end player.
- Which “high-end” player might the Heat make a run at this summer? Jackson names Kawhi Leonard, DeMarcus Cousins, and even DeMar DeRozan as possibilities.
- Briefly circling back to the 2017 free agent period, Jackson writes that the Heat committed four years and $60MM to James Johnson due to concerns that the Nuggets or Jazz would swoop in to sign him.
The Cavaliers, Warriors, and Thunder had the three most expensive rosters in the NBA in 2017/18, finishing the season well over the tax line. While those three clubs don’t currently project to be taxpayers again in 2018/19, that will change quickly if they’re able to re-sign their top free agents.
If LeBron James returns to Cleveland, Kevin Durant re-ups with the Dubs, and Paul George remains in Oklahoma City, all three clubs will blow past the luxury-tax threshold once again, barring separate cost-cutting moves.
For those teams, the possibility of going back into tax territory and continuing to run their repeater-tax clocks probably isn’t particularly appealing. But based on their high payrolls this past season, we know that ownership is willing to pay those penalties to contend, if necessary.
Heading into the 2018 offseason, there are several more clubs who could see their respective team salaries surpass the tax line if they re-sign certain free agents, and it remains to be seen just how comfortable some of those ownership groups are with the idea of becoming taxpayers.
Here are four teams whose team salaries are worth watching as they navigate free agency:
- Houston Rockets: With a little less than $78MM in guaranteed salaries on their books for 2018/19 at the moment, the Rockets appear to have some breathing room. However, lucrative new contracts for Clint Capela and Chris Paul would quickly change that equation. If we assume Paul gets a maximum-salary deal and Capela receives a starting salary in the range of $15-20MM, that would mean adding $50-55MM to Houston’s 2018/19 cap, which would put the team over the projected tax line with only eight players under contract. Ditching Ryan Anderson‘s contract would almost certainly be the club’s preferred method of avoiding a massive tax bill, but as we saw last offseason when the Rockets unsuccessfully shopped Anderson in trade talks, that won’t be easy.
- New Orleans Pelicans: With seven players on guaranteed contracts worth about $93MM, the Pelicans will get into some financial trouble if they re-sign DeMarcus Cousins to a pricey new contract. Even if we assume Cousins’ Achilles injury will prevent him from landing a max deal, he’s probably a good bet for a starting salary in the neighborhood of $20-25MM. Filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary contracts around Cousins and their other seven players would see New Orleans carry a team salary in the $122-127MM range — and that’s a conservative estimate which doesn’t include another important free agent, Rajon Rondo. Solomon Hill ($12.75MM) would be the most logical trade or release candidate if the Pels need to cut costs.
- Portland Trail Blazers: A solid but unspectacular season for Jusuf Nurkic should ensure that the Trail Blazers won’t have to pay him near-max money to keep him. Still, Portland is already carrying more than $110MM in guaranteed money for eight players, and Nurkic is probably worth an eight-figure salary. If the Blazers want to bring him back and avoid the tax, it’s possible we’ll see the team try to move one or more highly-paid players like Evan Turner ($17.87MM), Maurice Harkless ($10.84MM), or Meyers Leonard ($10.6MM).
- Denver Nuggets: While the Nuggets only have about $85.6MM in guaranteed 2018/19 money on their cap, a pair of player options for Wilson Chandler and Darrell Arthur figure to increase that total to about $105.9MM. Will Barton will also be due a raise, increasing team salary even further if he’s re-signed. But the real killer will be a potential extension for Nikola Jokic. Denver could probably avoid the tax by simply exercising Jokic’s cheap team option for 2018/19, but doing so would put him on track to become an unrestricted free agent in 2019 and wouldn’t sit well with the young center’s camp. Turning down the option, making him a restricted free agent, and locking him up to a mega-deal this offseason might be the Nuggets’ best move, but doing so would likely put the team over the tax line. Chandler ($12.8MM), Arthur ($7.46MM), Kenneth Faried ($13.76MM), and Mason Plumlee ($12.92MM) would become trade or release candidates in that scenario.
The Toronto Raptors deserve an honorable mention on this list, since re-signing Fred VanVleet would create some financial issues for them. However, even if they let VanVleet walk, the Raps will need to find a way to shed some salary in order to avoid becoming a taxpayer. Toronto already has more than $126MM in guaranteed contracts on its 2018/19 books without accounting for VanVleet.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- After spending the 2017/18 season on a two-way contract with the Nuggets, guard Torrey Craig is receiving interest from other NBA teams this offseason, per Sportando. Craig, 27, started five games for Denver this past season, averaging 4.2 points in 16.1 minutes per game.
- The Nuggets have made an adjustment to their previously-reported Wednesday workout, replacing Khyri Thomas (Creighton) with Bryant Crawford (Wake Forest), per a team release.
- The Nuggets will work out Troy Brown Jr. (Oregon), Matt Farrell (Notre Dame), Josh Okogie (Georgia Tech), Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech), Khyri Thomas (Creighton), and Gary Trent Jr. (Duke) on Wednesday, according to the club. Farrell had originally been scheduled to audition on Tuesday, but he was bumped a day back, with Jalen Brunson (Villanova) and Justin Tillman (VCU) joining Tuesday’s session.