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Poll: Will Nuggets Make 2017/18 Postseason?

November 22nd, 2017 at 12:38pm CST by Luke Adams

The Nuggets are currently tied for the fourth-best record in the Western Conference, at 10-7, but the team got some bad news on Tuesday. Veteran big man Paul Millsap is reportedly set to undergo surgery to repair a torn ligament in his wrist, and while his recovery timetable hasn’t been finalized, reports have indicated he may miss the next three months.

It’s a big blow for the Nuggets, who used nearly all of their available cap space in the offseason to add Millsap, a reliable power forward capable of complementing Nikola Jokic on offense and helping to stabilize a defense that had been one of the NBA’s worst last year. Denver’s defense still hasn’t been great this season, but it’s been better, and Millsap – who is averaging 15.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.3 BPG, and 1.1 SPG – has been a big part of that.

The Nuggets still haven’t confirmed a recovery timeline for Millsap, but if we assume he’ll be sidelined for three months, that would put him in line to return shortly after the All-Star break. If Millsap were to return on February 23, Denver’s first game after the break, he’d miss the team’s next 41 contests, or exactly half the regular season.

The Nuggets still have a talented roster without Millsap in the mix. The team went 40-42 last season, and is counting on further development from young centerpieces like Jokic and Jamal Murray in 2017/18. But the roster isn’t exactly stocked with experienced, playoff-tested veterans like Millsap, so his absence will be felt.

At 10-7, the Nuggets currently trail the Rockets, Warriors, and Spurs in the Western Conference, and they’re tied with the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves. Those five teams look like probable playoff clubs. Behind Denver, teams like the Pelicans (9-8), Grizzlies (7-9), Thunder (7-9), and Jazz (7-11) will be some of the teams battling for one of the other three postseason berths in the West, with the Lakers (8-10) and Clippers (5-11) among the dark horses.

What do you think? Can the Nuggets withstand Millsap’s absence and put themselves in position to get back to the playoffs this season, or will the injury be too much for the team to overcome? Vote in our poll and jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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An Early Look At Five 2018/19 Player Options

November 22nd, 2017 at 10:22am CST by Luke Adams

Back in 2016, player option decisions were essentially mere formalities. With the NBA salary cap set to spike, nearly every veteran with a player option on his contract decided to opt out and explore the free agent market. Only three players – Tim Duncan, Mo Williams, and Caron Butler – exercised their player options that year, and none of those players have appeared in the NBA since then.

The market shifted a little in 2017, as five players picked up their player options, and several other players perhaps should have. Dante Cunningham, Rudy Gay, Aron Baynes, and Nick Young are among the players earning less this season than they would have if they’d exercised their options, and David Lee opted out of his deal only to announce his retirement a few months later.

The NBA’s salary cap continues to increase, but it’s no longer jumping at nearly the same rate it was in 2016, which means veterans holding player options for 2018 may be less inclined to explore the market — there simply aren’t as many teams willing to throw money around.

A look at the list of player options for 2018/19 reveals several options that will likely be picked up. For instance, Wesley Matthews ($18.6MM), Darrell Arthur ($7.5MM), Wesley Johnson ($6.1MM), Jason Smith ($5.5MM), and Ron Baker ($4.5MM) are unlikely to find offers on the open market that are more lucrative than their option salaries. Of course, there are also still plenty of options that will be quickly declined — the odds of Paul George exercising his $20.7MM player option are slim.

Somewhere in between those two extremes, there are several 2018/19 player option decisions that remain unclear. These players may be leaning one way or the other right now, but the decision isn’t so obvious that it should be considered a lock quite yet. Here are five of those player option decisions worth keeping an eye on this season:

Carmelo Anthony, Thunder ($27,928,140): The Thunder’s new-look roster has been dubbed a one-year experiment, but even if things go south in Oklahoma City this season, there’s little reason not to expect two of the team’s “Big Three” players back next year. Russell Westbrook is on a long-term extension, and Anthony’s $27.9MM option is probably too lucrative to pass up, considering he’s 33 years old and is seeing his production decline. If the season goes really poorly for the Thunder, maybe Anthony opts out just to get a change of scenery, but at this point, I’d count on him opting in.
Jeremy Lin, Nets ($12,516,746): After an injury-plagued 2016/17 season in which he appeared in just 36 contests, Lin had high hopes for the 2017/18 campaign. However, he didn’t even make it through a single game this year, rupturing his patellar tendon in the Nets’ opener. When Lin is healthy, he’s a dynamic point guard who could command a solid long-term deal. But he’ll be 30 next summer and will be coming off a major injury. It might make sense to just play it safe and opt in for one more year in Brooklyn.
Wilson Chandler, Nuggets ($12,800,562): Chandler has been a Nugget since 2011, making him the team’s longest-tenured player, but it has been a bumpy ride at times. Although Chandler has averaged between 30.9 and 31.7 minutes per contest in every season since 2013/14, he hasn’t always been happy with his role over the years, with a report back in February suggesting he was hoping for a trade. Chandler has struggled this season, and his three-point efficiency has been on the decline, but if he can bounce back, he’d be an appealing free agent target for teams in need of a wing with some size or a small-ball power forward. He probably wouldn’t earn more than $12.8MM per year, but he should be able to exceed that figure in terms of total salary.
Cory Joseph, Pacers ($7,945,000): Long regarded as one of the NBA’s top backup point guards, Joseph’s numbers in Toronto and now Indiana have been fairly modest. Still, it might make sense for him to pass up an $8MM salary in search of a larger payday and perhaps a chance to earn a slightly larger role. An improved outside shot figures to make Joseph more appealing to potential suitors — in his first five NBA seasons, he made just 29.4% of his three-point attempts, but he has increased that mark to 38.5% since the start of the 2016/17 season.
Enes Kanter, Knicks ($18,622,514): Kanter’s option decision was considered so obvious that his probable opt-in was reported back in August, with his decision deadline still 10 months away. Has his strong play in New York changed that? Probably not. Despite averaging a double-double with 13.8 PPG and 10.6 RPG so far, Kanter remains an average defender at best, and big men who don’t either protect the rim or shoot three-pointers have limited upside in free agency. Although the future for Kanter looks brighter than it did a few months ago, it’s still hard to imagine him turning down an $18.6MM salary for next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nuggets Will Rely On Struggling Players In Millsap's Absence

November 21st, 2017 at 11:06pm CST by marksuleymanov

After crowded frontcourt rotation has become a feature rather than a bug for the Nuggets, who will have to rely heavily on the likes of Kenneth Faried and Mason Plumlee to produce in Paul Millsap‘s absence, Gina Mizell of the Denver Post writes. As we noted earlier, Millsap may miss two or three months after undergoing surgery on his left wrist.

Paul Millsap To Undergo Wrist Surgery, Miss 2-3 Months

November 21st, 2017 at 5:06pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Paul Millsap will undergo surgery on his left wrist and he’ll be sidelined indefinitely as he recovers, Sham Charania of The Vertical reports (Twitter link). The power forward injured his wrist on Sunday against the Lakers.

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link) hears that the surgery is to repair a torn ligament in the wrist and the power forward could be sidelined for the next three months.

Millsap signed a three-year, $90MM deal with the Nuggets this past offseason and he got off to slow start with the club, as I detailed in a recent edition of Fantasy Hoops. However, he was starting to look more comfortable in his new offense prior to leaving the game on Sunday.

Denver has morphed into a respectable team on the defensive end this season and Millsap’s presence is a major reason why. The Nuggets currently rank 17th in the league in defensive rating, a season after finishing with the second-worst mark in the league (Lakers).

Kenneth Faried got the start at power forward against the Kings on Monday, but it’s unclear if he’ll remain as involved after a poor showing. Faried was relegated to the bench after just 19 minutes of action where he made just one of seven shots.

Michael Malone Suspended; Jokic Fine Rescinded

November 20th, 2017 at 6:21pm CST by clarkcrum

The NBA has suspended Nuggets head coach Michael Malone for one game without pay for entering the court, halting play and making contact with a game official during yesterday’s loss to the Lakers, the league announced today in a press release. Malone will serve his suspension tonight when the Nuggets travel to Sacramento to face the Kings.

The NBA also announced in the same press release that the fine given to Nikola Jokic for being ejected from yesterday’s game has been rescinded. The league says that Jokic properly received a technical foul for his actions but that he should not have been ejected.

X-Rays Negative On Paul Millsap’s Wrist

November 20th, 2017 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

X-ray results on Paul Millsap‘s injured wrist came back negative, according to Chris Haynes of ESPN (Twitter link). Although Millsap won’t play for the Nuggets tonight, the team can breathe a sigh of relief that those x-rays didn’t show a break.

Millsap left Sunday’s game against the Lakers with a left wrist injury that was diagnosed as a sprain. However, as Haynes notes, there was some concern that x-rays may reveal a fracture. The Nuggets big man avoided that worst-case scenario, but it’s not clear when he’ll get back on the court — he may still miss several games, depending on the severity of the sprain.

Millsap, 32, signed a three-year deal with Denver in the offseason and has played well for the club so far, averaging 15.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 3.0 APG in 16 games (all starts). While his numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, particularly for one of the NBA’s highest-paid players, Millsap has stabilized the Nuggets’ frontcourt defense, and has helped the club get off to a 9-7 start.

In Millsap’s absence, Kenneth Faried and/or Mason Plumlee could receive an increase in playing time. With Wilson Chandler listed as questionable for tonight’s game, Juan Hernangomez and Will Barton may also see expanded roles.

Nuggets Notes: Murray, Nelson, Irving

November 19th, 2017 at 2:27pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Nuggets were in discussions with the Suns about an Eric Bledsoe trade, but it appears their decision not to offer too much for a new starting point guard is paying dividends. Jamal Murray, who has been Denver’s starting point guard since the beginning of the season, is playing well and the team is encouraged by his development.

“I love the pace he’s playing with,” said coach Michael Malone after a recent game (via Christopher Dempsey of NBA.com). “He’s got to set the pace that we want to play at, he’s got to be aggressive and he’s got to play with confidence. And you’re seeing that a lot more consistently right now. He’s starting to become a consistent starting point guard in the NBA.”

The 2016 No. 7 overall pick spent much of his playing time at shooting guard during his rookie season, but this year, he’s seeing all of his minutes at the one.

Here’s more on the Nuggets:

Denver had a deal in place to trade Jameer Nelson to a lottery team for a protected second-rounder prior to the season, though the team could “not stomach” sending the 35-year-old to a bad team, sources tell Zach Lowe of ESPN. The Nuggets ended up waiving Nelson, a move that allowed the vet to pick his own suitor.
Malone would have liked to keep Nelson on the team, though he is supportive of the organization’s decision to let the veteran go, Lowe relays in the same piece. “It was tough to see Jameer go,” Malone says. “The players trusted him. I find value in veteran mentors. In our meetings, of course I brought up all the reasons it made sense to keep him. But you have to think big picture. It wasn’t like I was kicking and screaming. By the end, we were all on board.”
The Nuggets had exploratory discussions with the Cavs about Kyrie Irving prior to them dealing away the point guard, though talks never got that far, per Lowe (same piece). The scribe notes that Murray, Wilson Chandler, and a lightly-protected first-rounder would have intrigued Cleveland, but Murray was never on the table.

Nuggets Were Close To Eric Bledsoe Trade

November 16th, 2017 at 8:57am CST by Arthur Hill

Denver was in the “red zone” on a potential trade for Eric Bledsoe last month, according to Zach Lowe of ESPN. Complete details aren’t provided, but Lowe believes Phoenix would have received Emmanuel Mudiay and a first-round pick.

Negotiations with the Suns eventually fell apart and the Nuggets moved on, leaving them with an extremely young point guard duo in Mudiay and Jamal Murray.

“We chase every opportunity to improve ourselves,” said Denver GM Tim Connelly, who refused to comment directly on the Bledsoe talks. “We’ve had a lot of excellent players offered to us for our young talent. There’s a fine line between overvaluing your own players and being too aggressive chasing short-term results.”

The decision not to give up too much for Bledsoe is understandable, writes Lowe, who says he wouldn’t have made made the Nuggets title contenders this season or next. After that, he will be seeking a huge contract as a free agent in his 30s with a history of knee problems.

Lowe also notes that Denver had an opportunity to make a run at Kyrie Irving over the summer, but refused to include Murray in a potential deal. He believes a package of Murray, Wilson Chandler and a minimally protected first-rounder would have gotten the Cavaliers’ attention.

The experience issue at point guard was created just before the season started when the Nuggets elected to waive Jameer Nelson, who played 75 games last season and started 39. Denver worked out a deal to trade him to a lower-level team in exchange for a protected second-round pick, but pulled out because the front office didn’t want Nelson to be stuck on a team with no shot at the playoffs. He eventually signed with the Pelicans after clearing waivers.

“It was tough to see Jameer go,” coach Mike Malone said. “The players trusted him. I find value in veteran mentors. In our meetings, of course I brought up all the reasons it made sense to keep him. But you have to think big picture. It wasn’t like I was kicking and screaming. By the end, we were all on board.”

2018 Salary Cap Outlook: Northwest Division

November 15th, 2017 at 3:47pm CST by Luke Adams

NBA rosters will undergo some changes over the course of the 2017/18 season, particularly around the trade deadline, and those changes may have an impact on teams’ cap sheets for future seasons. Based on the NBA’s current rosters, however, we can identify which teams are most and least likely to have cap room in the summer of 2018, which will dictate the type of moves those clubs can make in the offseason.

We’re taking a closer look at each of the NBA’s 30 teams by division this week. Today, we’re tackling the Northwest division. With the help of salary information compiled by Basketball Insiders, here’s how the summer of 2018 is shaping up for the five Northwest teams:

Portland Trail Blazers
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $110,456,026
Projection: Over the cap

The Trail Blazers reduced their future commitments by trading Allen Crabbe to Brooklyn earlier this year, and Ed Davis will come off the books next summer, giving Portland a chance to avoid the luxury tax in 2018/19. However, their $110MM+ in guaranteed salaries for next season doesn’t include a contract for Jusuf Nurkic, who will be a restricted free agent. If they want to re-sign Nurkic and don’t dump another salary, the Blazers figure to return to tax territory.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $110,233,979
Projection: Over the cap

The Timberwolves’ salary commitments look a lot different now than they did a year ago. Gorgui Dieng‘s lucrative new extension went into effect this summer, and Andrew Wiggins‘ max deal will begin in 2018. Throw in substantial salaries for offseason acquisitions Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, and Taj Gibson, and Minnesota projects to be well over the cap for 2018/19. With a potential extension for Karl-Anthony Towns looming for 2019/20, the Wolves won’t have cap space for the foreseeable future if they intend to keep their current core group together.

Denver Nuggets
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $89,903,848
Projection: Over the cap

The Nuggets’ guaranteed salaries for 2018/19 currently sit around $90MM, but even based on a $101MM cap projection, we shouldn’t expect the team to have any room. There are too many factors working against it.

For one, Denver will face a tough decision on Nikola Jokic — exercising his ultra-affordable $1.6MM team option would put him on track to become an unrestricted free agency in 2019, so the club may opt to decline that option and make him a restricted free agent. In that scenario, a new contract for Jokic would push the Nuggets over the cap.

Even if they simply pick up Jokic’s cheap option, the Nuggets will also have to consider player options for Kenneth Faried ($12.8MM) and Darrell Arthur ($7.5MM). Arthur is a good bet to exercise his option, and even though Faried hasn’t always loved his role in Denver, it’s possible he’ll pick up his too, since it features a pretty player-friendly salary.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $88,907,222
Projection: Over the cap

Carmelo Anthony‘s early termination option for 2018/19, worth nearly $28MM, is a major X factor for the Thunder, whose guaranteed team salary would increase from approximately $89MM to nearly $117MM if Anthony opts in. Taking into account Carmelo’s age, his production trends, and the current state of the free agent market, it makes sense for him to play out the final year of his current deal, so we’re penciling in Oklahoma City as a probable over-the-cap team.

Even if Anthony opts out and Paul George doesn’t re-sign, OKC could only get up to about $8.8MM in cap room. That’s barely more than the projected value of the mid-level exception, so even in that scenario, the Thunder may simply remain over the cap to avoid renouncing all their exceptions.

Utah Jazz
Guaranteed 2018/19 team salary: $67,839,543
Projection: Up to approximately $28MM in cap room

Only six Jazz players have fully guaranteed salaries for 2018/19, while seven others have non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed salaries, or are restricted free agents. That gives Utah some flexibility if the team wants to maximize its cap room.

However, retaining Thabo Sefolosha for his reasonable non-guaranteed salary of $5.25MM would cut into the Jazz’s space, as would re-signing Rodney Hood and/or Dante Exum. Realistically, unless Utah decides to only hang onto those six fully guaranteed players and make major changes around them, we shouldn’t expect the club to enter July 2018 armed with a ton of cap room.

Previously:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Faried, Plumlee Struggling For Consistent Bench Minutes

November 14th, 2017 at 11:02pm CST by marksuleymanov

Finding equal minutes for both Kenneth Faried and Mason Plumlee off the bench has been a challenge for Nuggets head coach Michael Malone, Gina Mizell of The Denver Post writes.