- Nuggets rookie Christian Braun saw his minutes reduced during a stretch of games in late February and early March, but has been back in the rotation this week. Head coach Michael Malone said it’s been hard to keep Braun off the floor, since he has a knack for making “winning play after winning play,” writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. “He’s playing with confidence,” Malone said. “He’s running the floor, rebounding, making the most of his opportunity, not getting frustrated when he’s out of the game. We need him to continue to do that and be ready for the playoffs.”
After their loss to Toronto on Tuesday, the Nuggets have now dropped four straight games, and they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of opponents during that time. In addition to the loss to Toronto, Denver’s recent defeats have been at the hands of Chicago (by 21 points), San Antonio, and Brooklyn, with two of them coming at home.
On Tuesday, head coach Michael Malone suggested the Nuggets seem to be in “chill mode,” adding that the team needs to find a way to get its “swagger” back (story via ESPN.com).
“Maybe we’ve gotten a little soft with success,” Malone said. “We’ve been on cruise control for so long, No. 1 in the West since like December 15. I just told our players we’ve gotten away from who we are.”
The Nuggets still control the No. 1 spot in the West by four games with just 13 left to play, but Malone will want to see his team firing on all cylinders entering the postseason, since there will be significant pressure on Denver – and its head coach – to make a deep playoff run, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Adam Mares of DNVR Sports discussed on the latest episode of The Lowe Post podcast.
“I don’t know if it’s championship or bust, but if this team loses before the conference finals, it’s going to be a disappointment,” Lowe said (hat tip to RealGM). “If they lose in the first round, it’s going to be a catastrophe that I think will push some potential changes.”
Here’s more from around the Northwest:
- While this season hasn’t played out quite how the Timberwolves hoped, their signing of Kyle Anderson has turned into one of the best free agent additions in team history, contends Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. As Krawczynski acknowledges, Minnesota doesn’t exactly have a long history of great free agent signings, but Anderson’s impact on this year’s club shouldn’t be understated.
- Jazz guard Collin Sexton, who has been sidelined since February 15 due to a hamstring strain, is “dying” to get back on the court, head coach Will Hardy said this week. “He’s getting close,” Hardy said, according to Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune. “… It’s frustrating ’cause he’s such a competitor and he wants to be out there. But he finds a way to channel all that energy to let it rip on the bench. I’ve had to tell him to sit down multiple times ’cause of the new rule where you can’t stand in the corner, and I’ve had multiple officials say, ‘Hey, you gotta tell Sexton to sit down.’ And I’m like, ‘I’m trying, but I can’t really control him — that’s how he is.'”
- After appearing in six G League games with Sacramento’s affiliate, Trail Blazers two-way player John Butler Jr. has been transferred back to Portland, the team announced on Tuesday (via Twitter). The Blazers don’t have an NBAGL team of their own, so Butler was in Stockton, where he averaged 8.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.2 BPG in 24.0 MPG.
Christian Braun‘s playing time has diminished since the Nuggets signed veteran point guard Reggie Jackson. Braun may warrant a return to the second unit, considering his performance on Sunday against Brooklyn, Harrison Wind of TheDnvr.com writes. Braun had seven points, three rebounds and an assist in 12 minutes. Braun is also one of the team’s better defenders, Wind adds, and got an endorsement from the team’s franchise player.
“He was good. I actually told him, not just his energy, he actually played really good,” Nuggets center Nikola Jokic said of the first-round pick out of Kansas. “He had good minutes. He was talking on the floor. He was running correct. Energy, you need to have energy when you play, especially him.”
- Jamal Murray departed the Nuggets’ loss to the Nets in the third quarter on Sunday due to left knee soreness. However, a source told the Denver Post’s Mike Singer (Twitter link) that Murray was “fine.”
- Nuggets forward Vlatko Cancar was available to play against Brooklyn on Sunday, coach Michael Malone told Mike Singer of the Denver Post (Twitter link). Cancar missed three games with a wrist sprain and also didn’t play against San Antonio on Friday.
- The Nuggets’ second unit has been unsettled after changes were made during and after the trade deadline, Singer writes. Reggie Jackson has struggled with his shooting (29%) since becoming the backup point guard and Thomas Bryant has been relatively quiet since he was brought in to back up Nikola Jokic. “We’re still trying to figure stuff out,” swingman Bruce Brown said.
NBA teams established a new record for luxury tax penalties during the 2021/22 season, as seven clubs paid total tax payments exceeding $481MM, blowing away the previous single-year record of approximately $173MM. A year later, that record is on track to be shattered once again.
According to Eric Pincus of Sports Business Classroom, the nine teams that are currently over the luxury tax line are on track to pay more than $625MM in total tax penalties.
Even after the trade deadline has passed, projected tax bills remain fluid due to possible roster moves, suspensions, incentives, and a handful of other factors. For instance, the Nets‘ projected tax bill increased when they signed Nerlens Noel to a 10-day contract earlier this week, and it’ll climb even further if they bring back Noel on a second 10-day pact or a rest-of-season deal.
Still, the current numbers will likely end up being pretty close to the final numbers, and they’re already pretty staggering. As Pincus outlines, here are the current penalties for this season’s taxpayers:
- Golden State Warriors: $168.9MM
- Los Angeles Clippers: $140.3MM
- Milwaukee Bucks: $79.5MM
- Boston Celtics: $65.3MM
- Dallas Mavericks: $56.2MM
- Phoenix Suns: $53.4MM
- Los Angeles Lakers: $35.9MM
- Denver Nuggets: $14.2MM
- Brooklyn Nets: $11.8MM
As significant as the Warriors’ projected tax bill is, it still falls a little shy of the $170MM+ they paid last season en route to a championship. The Clippers’ and Bucks’ penalties will be substantially higher than they were a year ago though, and teams like the Celtics, Mavericks, and Suns will be on the hook for sizable bills after finishing last season out of the tax entirely.
It’s worth noting that the Nets, who paid a bill of nearly $98MM in 2022, were headed for a nine-figure penalty this year before last month’s Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades, so their new projection looks pretty good by comparison.
According to Pincus, the NBA’s 21 non-taxpayers are presently on track to receive payments worth about $14.9MM, since 50% of the penalties in a given league year are redistributed to the teams that finished out of the tax.
The shares for non-taxpayers would have been higher, but the Sixers joined that club by sneaking under the tax line at the trade deadline, while teams that were dangerously close to that threshold – like the Hawks, Trail Blazers, and Heat – created some extra breathing room with their pre-deadline deals.
The luxury tax system is expected to be modified in the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement, so it will be interesting to see whether the record set this season for total tax payments ends up standing for a while.
Aaron Gordon believes mutual sacrifice and team camaraderie are among the reasons the Nuggets have been able to rise to the top spot in the West, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. Gordon, who has been with Denver since being acquired in a trade with the Magic two years ago, says it’s rare to find a team where everyone is committed to the same goal.
“I’m not here to win a championship for myself,” he said. “I’m here to win a championship for Joker (Nikola Jokic). Joker’s here to win a championship for Jamal (Murray) and (coach) Michael Malone and Michael Porter. (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), we’re looking to get him another one. I’m not doing this for myself. I’m doing it for the guys around me.”
Gordon, who’s enjoying one of the best seasons of his nine-year career, had a brief interruption recently due to a rib contusion. He returned last week and helped the Nuggets to four straight victories.
There’s more from the Northwest Division:
- Vlatko Cancar, who signed a new three-year contract last summer, told Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports that he hopes to spend his entire career with the Nuggets. The Slovenian power forward has a rotation role this season for the first time in his four years with the team. “I want to be in Denver because, first of all, I love it here. This is my first team, and I just want to be with the one team that drafted me, that believed in me,” Cancar said. “So I just want to give back to them with being positive, being a true professional, and when the opportunity comes, just play as best as I can.”
- Kevin Durant sees a bright future for his first NBA franchise, per Dana Scott of The Arizona Republic. The Thunder will be the opponent tonight when Durant plays his first home game with the Suns. “You got some potential up and down the lineup, guys that can be impact players in this league, a front office and coaching staff that understands what that’s like developing players,” Durant said of the Thunder. “So the last couple years they’ve been trending in the right direction and I feel like they’re working their way to being a playoff team.”
- The Timberwolves have been saying that Karl-Anthony Towns is in the “final stages” of his recovery from a calf injury for several weeks, and Jim Souhan of The Star Tribune wonders why there’s so much secrecy.
Bulls center Nikola Vucevic doesn’t think Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic should be penalized for being a prior Most Valuable Player award winner when voters make their selections this season, he told K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago.
“I think he deserves to get another one, the way he’s playing. I think you take him out of that team, it’s not even close to the same team,” Vučević said of the Nuggets’ franchise player. “The things that he does, you look at his stats, the efficiency he’s playing at, it’s very impressive. And it’s not like he’s putting up numbers and they’re not winning. They’re (25-0) when he has a triple-double. And he plays in a winning way. He makes the right play. He doesn’t force. He doesn’t try to do something just to do it. It’s all within the flow of the game. It’s winning basketball.”
- The Nuggets may finally reach the Finals this season in large part because of Michael Porter Jr’s maturity, Harrison Wind of TheDNVR.com writes. Porter has made himself a force at both ends of the floor after teams previously tried to take advantage of his defensive shortcomings. “I think Michael Porter has been just tremendous on both ends of the floor all season long,” coach Michael Malone said.
We still have nearly five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and play-in results, tiebreakers, and the draft lottery will further clarify what this year’s draft order will look like.
However, as the season enters its home stretch, we’re starting to get a clearer sense of which traded 2023 first-round picks will actually change hands (as opposed to falling in their protected range) and where those first-rounders will land. Here’s where things stand right now:
Picks that will be protected
- Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
- Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs
The Pistons and Hornets are currently the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference and appear unlikely to move any higher in the standings. There’s obviously no chance that they’ll end up picking the back half of the first round, so they’ll hang onto their first-round picks for at least one more year.
Once both of those picks are officially protected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.
Picks on track to change hands
- Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
- Bucks‘ and Clippers‘ picks (unprotected) to Clippers and Rockets.
- Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
- Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz.
- Suns‘ pick (unprotected) to Nets.
- Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Trail Blazers.
- Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
- Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
- Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.
Let’s work backwards and start with the obvious here. The Nuggets currently have the NBA’s second-best record, which would result in the No. 29 pick. The Celtics’ third-best record would give them the No. 28 pick. So Charlotte and Indiana, respectively, will definitely get those picks, but they’ll be pretty late in the first round.
Given the unpredictability that the play-in possibility injects into the playoff race, it may be a little early to lock in the Cavaliers and Knicks as automatic playoff teams, but they’re certainly trending in that direction. If the season ended today, Indiana would get the No. 26 overall pick from Cleveland and Portland would get the No. 23 selection from New York.
The Timberwolves’ and Suns’ picks have no protections, so they’re definitely changing hands — the only question is where they’ll land. Right now, Phoenix’s No. 21 pick would go to Brooklyn and Minnesota’s No. 18 pick would go to Utah.
The fact that the Mavericks’ pick is top-10 protected instead of lottery-protected means it could convey to the Knicks even if Dallas doesn’t earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Mavs are the seventh seed in the West and would owe the No. 17 seed to New York, but the playoff race is so tight and the play-in has such potential for fluctuation that Dallas’ pick could move a few spots in either direction.
The Nets will have the right to either their own pick or the Sixers’ pick, whichever is more favorable, with Utah receiving the less favorable of the two. Right now, that means Brooklyn would hang onto its own first-rounder (No. 22) while the Jazz would get Philadelphia’s pick (No. 27).
The Rockets won’t get to take advantage of their ability to swap their own pick for Brooklyn’s, but they have a second set of swap rights that should come in handy — Houston has the ability to swap Milwaukee’s first-rounder for the Clippers’ pick, with L.A. getting the less favorable of the two. That means if the season ended today, the Rockets would be in line for the Clippers’ first-rounder at No. 16, while L.A. would get the Bucks’ pick and move down 14 spots to No. 30.
One caveat here: If the Clippers’ first-round pick happens to land ahead of the Thunder’s pick, Oklahoma City would be able to swap its own pick for L.A.’s, then Houston could swap the Bucks’ first-rounder for OKC’s pick. For now though, that looks like a long shot, with the Clippers far better positioned than the Thunder in the Western playoff race.
Picks that remain the most up in the air
- Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
- Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
- Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls
- Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights
If the season ended today, the Bulls would be seventh in the draft lottery standings. That would give them a 31.9% chance to move up into the top four, meaning their pick would have about a two-in-three chance to go to Orlando. The Magic’s odds of acquiring the pick will increase if Chicago finishes the season strong.
If the Bulls manage to hang onto their pick this year, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-rounder in 2024.
The Wizards are 10th in the East and have a decent chance to secure a play-in berth, but their odds of capturing a playoff spot are longer. If they lose in the play-in (or miss it entirely), they’ll keep their first-rounder rather than sending it to the Knicks, and would instead owe New York their top-12 protected pick in 2024.
The Trail Blazers are in a similar boat in the West, still in the play-in hunt but with increasingly long odds to actually make the playoffs. If they don’t get a first-round series in the postseason, they’ll hang onto their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls. Chicago will have to wait until Portland makes the playoffs to get that first-round selection, which remains lottery-protected through 2028.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers has been one of the most fascinating draft assets to monitor this year.
At one point in the first half, with Los Angeles off to an awful start and the Pelicans firing on all cylinders, it looked like New Orleans would be able to use that swap to move from the 20s into the top 10. Today, both teams have identical 31-34 records and have been trending in opposite directions. If that trend continues, New Orleans will end up keeping its own pick rather than swapping it for the Lakers’ first-rounder.
Will Barton, who recently signed with the Raptors, says the regular season is just a “tune up” for the Nuggets guard, who didn’t play last season due to a knee injury.
Nuggets forward Zeke Nnaji will remain sidelined due to a right shoulder sprain until at least mid-March. The team announced today (via Twitter) that Nnaji will have the injury reevaluated in two weeks.
Nnaji wasn’t a regular part of Denver’s rotation early in the season, but had started to play a little more often in the weeks leading up to his injury, which has kept him on the shelf since February 5. For the season, the 22-year-old has appeared in 44 games, averaging 5.1 points and 2.3 rebounds on .572/.289/.667 shooting in 13.3 minutes per night.
It’s unclear what sort of role Nnaji will have if and when he’s ready to return. Vlatko Cancar and Jeff Green are among the Nuggets forwards who have played increased roles in his absence. Denver also acquired center Thomas Bryant a few days after Nnaji went down, so there may no longer be a path to some of the minutes he was getting as a small-ball five.
Nnaji is in the third year of his rookie contract and will become extension-eligible for the first time this offseason. If he doesn’t get a new deal later this year, he’d be on track for restricted free agency in the summer of 2024.