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Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

December 20th, 2022 at 1:44pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.

Jerami Grant, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $20,955,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Grant has proven to be a nice fit in Portland, providing efficient frontcourt scoring (.613 true shooting percentage) for the team’s seventh-ranked offense. He can score in a variety of ways and is one of the team’s better defenders, though the Blazers have fallen off considerably on that end – they’re down to 23^rd in defensive rating with a net rating barely above water (+0.4).

Grant will turn 29 in March and is in line for a big payday on his next contract. For what it’s worth, Portland would be limited during the season to offering a four-year, $112.65MM extension, so if he thinks he can get more than that, he’ll have to wait until free agency.

Bruce Brown, G/F, Nuggets

2022/23: $6,479,000
2023/24: $6,802,950 player option
Stock: Up

I was surprised Brown’s free agency foray last offseason wasn’t more lucrative after a strong postseason showing with the Nets – he ended up signing a two-year deal with Denver for the taxpayer mid-level exception. It was rumored that he had higher offers and liked the fit with the Nuggets.

Either way, he has been a valuable and consistent role player alongside reigning back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic. The versatile Brown is averaging 11.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.3 APG and 1.0 SPG on a rock-solid .492/.413/.800 (.584 TS%) shooting line through 29 games (30.2 MPG).

In addition to being head coach Michael Malone’s go-to replacement starter across multiple positions (he’s up to 17 starts), Brown is attempting – and converting – more three-pointers than ever before, up to 1.3 makes and 3.2 attempts per game, from previous career highs of 0.6 and 1.7, respectively. He has been a relative bargain thus far, but the problem for the Nuggets is if he opts out, they’ll only have his Non-Bird rights, so they’ll be limited to offering him 120% of his current contract – a deal would start at $7.8MM in 2023/24, only a $1MM raise on his player option.

If he opts out, I think Brown could at least land a deal for the non-taxpayer mid-level in free agency, which is projected to be worth $48.9MM over four years. If Denver is where he really wants to be, another option would be picking up his option and then re-signing once the Nuggets have his Early Bird rights after ’23/24 – Nicolas Batum and Bobby Portis took that route in recent years with the Clippers and Bucks, respectively.

Bryn Forbes, G, Timberwolves

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

In five consecutive seasons from 2017-22, Forbes knocked down at least 38.8% of his three-point attempts, and he owns a career rate of 41.3%. However, he has struggled this season in his rare opportunities to play, converting just 25.8% of his looks beyond the arc in 17 games (10.6 MPG).

That’s a major problem for the undersized shooting guard, because his value is almost entirely tied to his ability to make shots — he’s limited in every other area, particularly defensively. The Wolves need shooting – they’re 22^nd in 3PT% – so the fact that he hasn’t been playing obviously means head coach Chris Finch doesn’t trust him over other options. For players on minimum deals, one down season could mean they’re on the last legs of their NBA careers.

Justise Winslow, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $4,097,561
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

After dealing with several significant injuries in his eight-year career, Winslow has been relatively healthy thus far for Portland, appearing in 28 of 31 games. You would think that alone would help his stock, but he hasn’t really shown anything different than he’s done in prior seasons from a production standpoint.

Winslow is energetic, strong, a solid rebounder, an above-average play-maker and a solid defender across multiple positions, all desirable traits. He can grab a rebound and start a fast break, or initiate the offense in a half-court setting, acting as a point forward of sorts.

However, he’s very limited as a scorer – his .415/.310/.714 (.470 TS%) shooting line is very close to his career mark – so it’s hard to envision his market being robust, despite his positive attributes.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G/F, Jazz

2022/23: $5,009,633
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

The No. 17 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Alexander-Walker had a very inconsistent first three seasons. He was traded twice right before last season’s deadline, going from New Orleans to Portland to Utah, and rarely saw the court with the Jazz.

His spot in the rotation is still tenuous – he has appeared in 22 of 33 games for an average of 15.3 minutes per night. Virtually all of his counting stats are similar to his career averages. So why is his stock up?

The answer is simple: he’s posting a .491/.433/.727 (.623 TS%) shooting line and has played key defense at the end of multiple close games. Less simple is the question of whether the Jazz will be inclined give him a $7,073,602 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent – it’s too early to make that call, but if I had to guess, I’d bet they wouldn’t right now.

Still, if he keeps shooting anything close to what he has early on, he’ll likely find a multiyear contract for more than the minimum, which definitely wasn’t a lock entering ‘22/23.

Porter Jr. Upgraded To Doubtful For Tuesday

December 19th, 2022 at 7:03pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr., who has missed a dozen games due to a heel injury, has been upgraded to doubtful for Tuesday’s game against Memphis, Mike Singer of the Denver Post tweets. Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green are all listed as questionable.

Nikola Jokic, Donovan Mitchell Named Players Of The Week

December 19th, 2022 at 2:38pm CST by Rory Maher

Nuggets center Nikola Jokic and Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell have been named the NBA’s Western and Eastern Conference players of the week, respectively, the league announced today (via Twitter).

Jokic, the back-to-back league MVP, put up historic numbers during Denver’s 2-1 week. He averaged 36.0 points, 17.3 rebounds, 8.7 assists and 3.7 steals on .623/.333/.806 shooting, including 43 points (on 85% shooting), 14 rebounds, eight assists, and five steals in Wednesday’s victory over the Wizards, and an enormous 40-point, 27-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in Sunday’s victory over Charlotte. The Nuggets are currently 18-11, tied with the Pelicans for the second-best record in the West.

Mitchell, meanwhile, led Cleveland to a 3-1 week with averages of 32.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists on an excellent .539/.425/.882 shooting slash line. For the season, he’s posting career highs in points (29.5), FG% (50.3), 3PT% (42.4) and FT% (.889) for the 20-11 Cavs, the East’s No. 3 seed.

According to the NBA (Twitter link), the other nominees in the West were Anthony Edwards, LeBron James and Damian Lillard, while Paolo Banchero, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Tyler Herro were nominated in the East.

Northwest Notes: Jokic, Mitchell, Joe, Mann

December 19th, 2022 at 10:58am CST by Arthur Hill

Nuggets center Nikola Jokic put up numbers reminiscent of Wilt Chamberlain on Sunday night, but it’s concerning that Denver needed that type of production to get by the Hornets, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. Jokic had one of the best games of his career with 40 points, 27 rebounds, 10 assists and two steals, a line that hasn’t been seen since Chamberlain did it in 1968.

Singer notes that Jokic’s efforts were needed because of the continued struggles of the team’s bench. Denver’s reserves were outscored by Charlotte’s, 46-18, and Jokic had to cut short his rest in both halves.

“Our bench wasn’t giving us anything,” coach Michael Malone said. “… When you’re coming off the bench, you have an obligation. Guys get pissed off when they come out of a game. Well, if you’re playing better, you’re not coming out of a game. Simply stated.”

There’s more from the Northwest Division:

Donovan Mitchell is ready to face the Jazz Monday night for the first time since his trade to the Cavaliers, notes Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune. Although Mitchell’s recent comments about “having fun again” angered some Utah fans, his former teammates aren’t taking offense. “I don’t really interpret it in any bad way at all,” Mike Conley said. “I think when you’re winning and you’re successful, when you have a career year and you’re playing well, you’re having fun. And I’m sure he had that same fun when we were playing really well, like we all did. So, you know, we’re all having fun now. I think everybody who’s been moving around and in different locations or the same location, we’re all having a good time, we’re all enjoying basketball.”
The Thunder picked up a three-point specialist when they signed Isaiah Joe after the Sixers waived him in training camp, per Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. Joe has claimed a rotation spot by shooting 46% from beyond the arc, and he was 5-of-8 in a career-high 23-point game Saturday night. “I’m definitely more than just a shooter,” Joe said, “and that’s gonna come out over time, but right now I just feel like this is what the team needs, and I’m going to aspire to be the best at it.”
Thunder point guard Tre Mann is taking a positive approach toward his G League assignment, Mussatto tweets. Mann plans to focus on his catch-and-shoot game while he’s with the Oklahoma City Blue. “My mindset is do whatever I’ve gotta do to be the best player I can be,” he said. “That’s what we feel is best for me — me and the coaches. I understand it. I’m gonna go down there and get better.”

Northwest Notes: Gordon, Alexander-Walker, Sexton, Edwards

December 18th, 2022 at 4:31pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Nuggets power forward Aaron Gordon has proven to be a reliable role player this season in perhaps his best year as a pro thus far, writes Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Gordon is averaging 16.9 PPG on a career-high 61% shooting, along with 6.3 RPG and 2.1 APG, for the 17-11 Nuggets.

“I’m looking to be the glue guy,” Gordon said. “I think I’m using my physicality down on the block… And I like running and scoring in transition. But I have another level to get to — and so does this team.”

“You can see how he’s developed,” two-time MVP center Nikola Jokic said of the 6’8″ forward this week. “He can screen and roll, he can play one-on-one, facing the basket. He can run and rebound. He’s a complete player. He doesn’t have a weak spot. He’s probably one of the top-five, two-way players in the league now.”

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

Jazz shooting guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker has emerged as a key rotational component, which he credits to trying to be more effective by focusing on improving more limited elements of his game, writes Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune. “When guys have fun, guys enjoy it, guys are in the flow state, there’s less tension and force; like the laws of attraction — the harder you try, the more it sometimes presses away from you,” Alexander-Walker said. “So I’ve just learned to let things take their course and be patient.”
Following a reassessment of his strained right hamstring, Jazz reserve point guard Collin Sexton is now considered day-to-day, per Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune (Twitter link). The Jazz have indicated that the evaluation included imaging. Sexton has been sidelined for the team’s last five contests with the injury. For the season, his first with Utah, the 6’1″ vet is averaging 14.3 PPG, 3.0 APG and 2.4 RPG mostly as a backup.
Timberwolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards has had to adjust quickly to serving as Minnesota’s (short-term) main playmaker with guards D’Angelo Russell and Jordan McLaughlin both sidelined in consecutive recent games, writes Kent Youngblood of The Star Tribune. “I think these last couple games have been good for him to be on the ball,” head coach Chris Finch opined. “One thing we’ve been preaching to him a lot, the essence of offense in the league, is when they put two on you, create an advantage. No matter how you do it, pick-and-roll, trap, early gap help, all that stuff is a gravity that he creates.”

Will Barton Reflects On Nuggets Tenure

December 15th, 2022 at 10:14am CST by Luke Adams

Before facing his old team in Denver on Wednesday as a member of the Wizards, veteran guard Will Barton reflected on his eight-year tenure with the Nuggets, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post (subscription required). Barton said he enjoyed seeing the club evolve from a lottery team to a contender during his time in Denver. “Just to be a part of that whole foundation, laying the bricks, to see where they are today,” Barton said. “Knowing that I was a part of that is gratifying enough for me.”

Porter Jr. Participates In Practice

December 12th, 2022 at 9:30pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. participated in practice on a limited basis Monday for the first time since he suffered a heel injury, Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports tweets. Porter is unlikely to play Wednesday against the Wizards but the team is hopeful he can keep progressing at practice this week, including contact and live drills. He hasn’t played since Nov. 22.

Western Notes: Grant, Nuggets, Smith, Fox

December 11th, 2022 at 8:33pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Trail Blazers forward Jerami Grant has no regrets about leaving the Nuggets and signing with the Pistons during his last dip into the free agency pool, he told Mike Singer of the Denver Post. Grant signed a three-year, $60MM deal with rebuilding Detroit even though Denver offered a similar contract. Grant, who was dealt to Portland prior to this season, wanted to have a bigger offensive role.

“I think I just grew as a player,” said Grant, who could become a free agent again at the end of this season. “I gave myself an opportunity to become who I am today. I think I’ve been this player, but there was a lot of work I needed to do. I think I gave myself room to grow.”

We have more from the Western Conference:

The Nuggets continue to be subpar defensively despite their 16-10 record and coach Michael Malone says his team will never reach a championship level until it develops a defensive mentality, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. “We can’t pick and choose when we want to defend,” Malone said. “That’s what’s going on right now a little bit too often.” The Nuggets are allowing 114.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking 26th in the NBA.
Rockets rookie forward Jabari Smith said prior to the team’s game against Milwaukee on Sunday that he viewed his matchup with Giannis Antetokounmpo as a measuring stick, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. “Looking at it like an opportunity to just learn, go out there and compete and measure yourself, see where you are, against some of the greatest in the world,” Smith said. “It’s fun. It’s challenging. It’s what I work for.” Houston won the game as Milwaukee’s superstar was held to 16 points. Smith had a poor shooting night but made three steals.
Kings star guard De’Aaron Fox didn’t play against the Knicks on Sunday due to foot soreness, Tim Bontemps of ESPN tweets. Fox, who is averaging 22.8 PPG with a .507/.366/.826 shooting line, has missed two consecutive games during the team’s six-game road trip. He recently disclosed that he’s been dealing with right foot soreness for over a month.

Malone: Still No Timeline For MPJ's Return

December 9th, 2022 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

There’s still no timeline for the return of Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr., who has missed eight straight games with a left heel injury, head coach Michael Malone said on Thursday. According to Mike Singer of The Denver Post (Twitter link), a TNT report suggested Porter could be back within a week, but Malone said no target date has been conveyed to him.

And-Ones: Projected Taxpayers, Parity, Sovereign Funds, Scola

December 8th, 2022 at 10:30am CST by Luke Adams

The Warriors, Clippers, and Nets are the three teams projected to pay a nine-figure luxury bill in 2023, according to Eric Pincus of Sports Business Classroom. In his roundup of each team’s proximity to the tax line, Pincus has Golden State’s tax bill estimated at $176.5MM, with L.A. at $144.7MM and Brooklyn at approximately $109MM.

The 2021/22 campaign represented a record-setting year for luxury tax payments, with the Warriors, Nets, and Clippers heading up seven taxpayers that were penalized a total of $481MM, by far a single-season NBA high.

However, as Pincus outlines, NBA teams are on track to smash that record in 2022/23, with the Bucks ($69.8MM), Celtics ($66MM), Lakers ($40.6MM), Mavericks ($33.6MM), Suns ($32.6MM), Nuggets ($17.6MM), and Sixers ($1.8MM) joining the three aforementioned clubs to total over $692MM in projected tax payments.

That number will likely dip a little before the end of the season, with certain teams trading some salary to reduce their end-of-season bill and others – such as Philadelphia – perhaps trying to get out of tax territory altogether. But it seems safe to assume the teams that finish the season below the tax line will still see a major windfall.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

There’s more parity than ever at the one-quarter mark of the 2022/23 NBA season, according to Howard Beck of SI.com, who breaks down the numbers on the glut of teams hovering around .500 and explores several theories from people around the league about why parity might be on the rise.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst takes a closer look at the NBA’s rule change allowing sovereign wealth funds to purchase minority stakes in NBA franchises, which we briefly covered last week. Under the new policy, a foreign fund could buy up to 20% of a team, though any such purchase would be “subject to significant vetting,” sources tell Windhorst. There are currently no sales to sovereign funds under review by the league, Windhorst adds.
In an interesting piece for The Athletic, Mike Vorkunov speaks to Luis Scola about the veteran NBA forward’s transition from longtime player to team owner. Scola, who appeared in 743 games across 10 NBA seasons from 2007-17 and won an Olympic gold medal playing for Argentina in 2004, became the controlling owner of the Italian team Pallacanestro Varese earlier this year.