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Poll: Will Nikola Jokic Three-Peat As MVP?

December 29th, 2022 at 2:45pm CST by Rory Maher

I realize that it’s probably too early to ask this question. We’re only a little over 40% of the way through the 2022/23 regular season, and a variety of factors — injuries, team results, etc. — could swing the MVP race in multiple directions, especially with so many strong candidates.

In the first edition of ESPN’s MVP straw poll earlier this month, Celtics forward Jayson Tatum led the field, followed by Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, Warriors guard Stephen Curry and Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. A lot has changed in the two weeks since that poll was conducted, including Curry sustaining a shoulder injury.

Tatum continues to excel as the best player on the league’s best team, a true two-way force. Antetokounmpo has great numbers, though the Bucks are in a rut, having lost four straight games. Doncic has put up mind-boggling statistics the entire season, but especially recently, becoming the first player in NBA history to record a stat line of 60 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists in the Mavs’ comeback victory over the Knicks on Tuesday, as ESPN’s Tim MacMahon writes.

Sixers center Joel Embiid has certainly climbed the rankings, mostly due to being healthy, leading the league in scoring for the second straight season while carrying Philadelphia up the Eastern Conference standings. The same can be said for Kevin Durant, who is having perhaps his finest season for the resurgent Nets, winners of 14 of their past 15 games.

In another year, stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell, and Zion Williamson — all of whom are having phenomenal seasons — would garner significant attention as well. Yet in ’22/23, they are mere afterthoughts.

As John Hollinger of The Athletic noted a couple days ago, Jokic, the reigning back-to-back MVP, might have the strongest case of all, despite a strong sentiment that voter fatigue will work against him (the same thing was said last season).

The Nuggets are 22-12, tied with the Pelicans for the best record in the West. Jokic once again leads the NBA in several advanced statistics, including player efficiency rating (32.3), win shares (6.6), box plus/minus (12.2), DunksAndThrees.com‘s estimated plus/minus (8.3), and FiveThirtyEight.com‘s RAPTOR wins above replacement (9.5, with Doncic second at 7.5), among others.

The 27-year-old’s traditional numbers are just as impressive. He’s averaging 25.7 points, 10.8 rebounds, 9.4 assists and 1.5 steals on .619/.324/.806 shooting through 31 games. Those 9.4 assists per game would be an NBA record for a center, his 68.8 true shooting percentage is the best mark among high-volume scorers, and he’s somehow shooting 62% from mid-range, which tops the league.

Maybe the most staggering statistic of all is the fact that the Nuggets are plus-10.9 with the Serbian on the court and minus-13.4 when he’s off, according to NBA.com. Jokic currently leads Basketball-Reference.com‘s MVP award tracker at 45.1%, trailed by Doncic (21.7%), Embiid (9.6%), Tatum (6.3%), Antetokounmpo (4.9%) and Durant (4.5%).

That leads us to our poll: Will Jokic three-peat as MVP? Vote and then head to the comments to weigh in with your thoughts.

Nuggets Notes: Power Forwards, Gordon, Jokic, Braun

December 27th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Nuggets head coach Michael Malone said on Sunday that the team will take a by-committee approach to replacing Jeff Green‘s minutes with the forward expected to miss at least a month or so due to a finger injury.

As Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports tweets, Malone mentioned Zeke Nnaji as a logical replacement from Green at power forward, but noted that Vlatko Cancar, Michael Porter Jr., and Bruce Brown could all see minutes at the four as well. Nnaji was ineffective vs. Phoenix on Sunday, picking up three fouls and no points or rebounds in nine minutes of action.

Here’s more on the Nuggets:

Aaron Gordon had 28 points, 13 rebounds, a highlight-reel dunk, and a key blocked shot in Sunday’s victory and has now been a plus-65 during Denver’s four-game winning streak (the Nuggets have been outscored by 31 points with Gordon off the court during the streak). As Mike Singer of The Denver Post writes, the forward’s ability to contribute all over the court has Malone talking about him as a potential All-Star and Nikola Jokic referring to him as the “soul of this team.”
Gordon is questionable to play on Tuesday in Sacramento due to a right shoulder strain, tweets Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette.
Voter fatigue will likely work against Jokic as he makes a bid for a third consecutive MVP award, but the Nuggets’ star center is building a strong case for consideration, according to John Hollinger of The Athletic. The 27-year-old is nearly averaging a triple-double for the top team in the Western Conference and has scored more efficiently than ever, with a career-best .616 FG%. Additionally, the Nuggets have a plus-11.3 net rating with Jokic on the floor, compared to an abysmal minus-13.6 mark when he sits, per NBA.com.
Within the same Athletic story, Hollinger checks in on Nuggets rookie wing Christian Braun, who has been playing rotation minutes as of late. Hollinger is intrigued by the potential Braun has shown on defense, but acknowledges his role on offense is unlikely to expand beyond “guy who stands in the corner” anytime in the near future.

Northwest Notes: Nuggets, Caruso, Timberwolves, Williams

December 25th, 2022 at 1:34pm CST by Rory Maher

The Nuggets might to be turning a corner on the defensive end, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. Denver has won six of its past seven games to move to 20-11, and the team is 12th in defensive rating over that span, up from 23rd on the season, Singer notes.

As Singer details, the third quarter of Friday’s home win over Portland was a particularly impressive defensive stretch, with the Nuggets outscoring the Blazers 35-16. Michael Porter Jr., who made his return to the lineup after a 13-game absence with a left foot injury, played a big part in that effort, as did Jamal Murray, who sat out Tuesday’s game due to knee maintenance.

“When our defense turned up, the offense is great, but I just get so excited when I see five guys locked in, on a string,” head coach Michael Malone said, per Singer.

Porter described his injury as a form of plantar fasciitis, and he finished with 18 points and five rebounds in 27 minutes, Singer adds. Murray nearly notched a triple-double, recording 25 points, eight rebounds, 12 assists and a couple steals.

Here’s more from the Northwest:

In a subscriber-only story for The Denver Post, Singer says league-wide parity has contributed to a lack of sellers on the trade market thus far. The Bulls haven’t shown any interest in dealing away contributing players yet, but if that changes, Alex Caruso would be a nice bench upgrade for the Nuggets, according to Singer, who also thinks an upgrade over Zeke Nnaji and DeAndre Jordan at the backup five might be needed if Denver doesn’t trust either player for a postseason run.
Four Timberwolves role players — Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Jaylen Nowell and Nathan Knight — have a special bond, and their camaraderie has helped the team during tense moments, per Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. “I want to see the whole team succeed. But those are guys that I’m very, very close with,” Nowell said. “They’re really like blood brothers. It hits a little different when you see your family being successful.” All four are at key junctures in their careers — McDaniels is eligible for a rookie scale extension in the summer, Reid and Nowell will be unrestricted free agents, and Knight is playing on a non-guaranteed deal.
Rookie big man Jaylin Williams, the 34th overall pick of June’s draft, sustained a concussion on Wednesday in a G League contest for the Oklahoma City Blue, the Thunder announced. The second-rounder is now in the league’s concussion protocol. Williams has only made seven NBA appearances thus far, averaging 3.0 PPG and 2.3 RPG in 8.7 minutes per contest, but he has been a regular with the Blue, the Thunder’s affiliate, averaging 14.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 5.3 APG and 1.4 SPG on .626/.364/.741 shooting in 11 games (30.6 MPG).

Jeff Green Out At Least Four Weeks With Fractured Hand, Sprained Finger

December 24th, 2022 at 2:42pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Nuggets power forward Jeff Green has sprained his left finger and fractured his left hand, the team announced today (Twitter link). Green will have his hand reassessed in four weeks.

The injury occurred during the fourth quarter of Friday night’s 120-107 victory over the Trail Blazers,

Green has remained a helpful bench big for the 20-11 Nuggets, the top seed in the Western Conference. The 6’8″ forward is averaging 7.5 PPG on 52.7% shooting in 19.3 MPG. He is also logging 2.8 RPG and 1.1 APG through his first 24 games for Denver.

The 36-year-old is currently on the second year of a two-season, $9MM deal he inked with Denver in 2021. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Mike Singer of The Denver Post tweets that he expects third-year power forward Zeke Nnaji to see additional minutes backing up starting power forward Aaron Gordon with Green shelved.

And-Ones: Suns’ Sale, Expansion, Udoh, Ignite, Warkentien

December 24th, 2022 at 10:47am CST by Luke Adams

There wasn’t a ton of trade chatter at the G League Winter Showcase in Las Vegas this past week, but the news of the Suns‘ sale to Mat Ishbia generated plenty of discussion, according to John Hollinger of The Athletic. Specifically, the franchise’s $4 billion valuation raised eyebrows, given how far above recent projections it was.

As Hollinger explains, that eye-popping sale price led to speculation on two fronts. For one, there were conversations about whether other franchises could find their way onto the market — for instance, Paul Allen‘s estate appears content to exercise patience before eventually opening the bidding on the Trail Blazers, but it’s possible the Suns’ valuation could help expedite that process. Hollinger adds that there have also been whispers over the years about whether Michael Jordan will sell the Hornets.

Perhaps more importantly, the Suns’ high sale price could be good news for the prospect of NBA expansion. As Hollinger observes, the existing 30 team owners are more likely to agree to bring in two new partners if their cut of the expansion fee high enough to offset their losses from splitting the NBA’s TV deal and other sources of revenue 32 ways instead of 30 ways. The Suns selling for $4 billion increases the odds of expansion fees for teams in cities like Seattle and Las Vegas reaching the neighborhood of $4-5 billion, says Hollinger.

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

Former NBA lottery pick Ekpe Udoh is resuming his playing career in Japan, according to Alessandro Maggi of Sportando, who relays that the big man has signed with the Shimane Susanoo Magic. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Udoh appeared in 384 total NBA games, but hasn’t played in the league since the 2018/19 season.
Scoot Henderson wasn’t available for the G League Ignite during the league’s Winter Showcase event in Las Vegas this past week, but Jeremy Woo of SI.com got a chance to scout several other Ignite players, including London Johnson, Leonard Miller, Sidy Cissoko, and Mojave King. Woo shares several of his key takeaways on the Ignite’s non-Henderson prospects, identifying Miller and Cissoko as players who have a chance to be selected in the first round of the 2023 NBA draft (Johnson will be draft-eligible in 2024).
Veteran NBA executive Mark Warkentien, who won an Executive of the Year award in 2009 as the Nuggets‘ head of basketball operations, has passed away at age 69 (Twitter link via the Nuggets). Warkentien most recently worked in the league as a special assignment evaluator for the Thunder. We at Hoops Rumors send our condolences to his family and friends.

Nuggets Notes: Murray, Nnaji, Jokic, MPJ

December 22nd, 2022 at 8:51pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray has been dealing with shooting issues, but is trying to find other ways to chip in, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. Singer notes that Murray’s left knee, which went under the knife in April 2021 after he tore his ACL, was sore during a 119-115 victory over the Hornets Sunday, but Murray did his best to play through the pain. He did not shoot well, but chipped in 11 dimes while only turning over the ball three times.

“I didn’t want to sit out,” Murray said. “I can not score and (still) have a decent game.”

As Singer observes, Murray made an impact through setting good screens, passing, being a threat from deep, and staying in touch with teammates on defense.

The 6’3″ guard is averaging 17.5 PPG on .437/.338/.765 shooting splits. Those shooting numbers mark a bit of a dip since Murray’s last healthy season in 2020/21. He is also chipping in 5.4 APG, 3.7 RPG and 0.8 SPG.

There’s more out of Denver:

Nuggets head coach Michael Malone believes third-year power forward Zeke Nnaji deserves more playing time, per Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports (Twitter link). “When he’s gotten a chance, he’s done a really good job for us,” Malone noted. “We have to find out if Zeke Nnaji can be a part of this team… Now it’s my job to get him out there and play him – not just one game and sit five. No one can do that. It’s almost like Zeke needs an extended chance to show what he can do to help this team. He deserves that opportunity.”
Two-time Nuggets MVP center Nikola Jokic is playing at an exceptionally high level for the third straight season, writes Sopan Deb of The New York Times. The big man has emerged as one of the best passers and scorers in the league, and Malone considers him to be a “generational talent.” The 6’11” All-Star is averaging 24.7 PPG, 11 RPG, 9.2 APG, and 1.5 SPG across 27 contests for the 19-11 Nuggets. He also boasts a shooting line of .617/.328/.798 this year.
The Nuggets are convinced small forward Michael Porter Jr. can help the team on the defensive end, writes Harrison Wind of DNR Sports. Wind writes that the team’s starting five of Porter, point guard Murray, shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, power forward Aaron Gordon and Jokic is posting a defensive rating of 101.6 in 2022/23. Though smaller fill-in starting small forward Bruce Brown is nominally a superior defender, Wind postulates that the sheer size of Porter (6’10” with a 7-foot wingspan) helps positively impact that starting lineup defensively.

Nuggets’ Michael Porter Jr. Plans To Play Friday

December 22nd, 2022 at 4:01pm CST by Rory Maher

Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. says he’s “definitely playing” on Friday against Portland, per Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports (Twitter links).

Oddly, head coach Michael Malone spoke to the media before Porter, and he said the 24-year-old’s status for Friday was still up in the air and indicated that he would have a minutes restriction when he does play. According to Wind, Porter then followed Malone and stated that he was playing and didn’t think there would be any restrictions, so evidently there was a miscommunication between the coach and player.

Porter has been sidelined since Nov. 22 while dealing with a left heel strain, missing the past 13 games with the injury. He downplayed the severity of the injury despite missing a month of action.

“For me, if it’s not related to my back, I’m not too worried about it…this is something that’s unrelated to my back,” Porter said (Twitter link via Wind).

Porter, who played just nine games last season after undergoing his third back surgery since college, is averaging 16.4 points and 6.0 rebounds on .466/.427/.800 shooting through 16 games (29.1 minutes per contest). He’s officially listed as questionable for Friday night, as is guard Jamal Murray (left knee injury management), tweets Wind.

After defeating Memphis on Tuesday, the Nuggets have recaptured the top seed in the West, currently sitting with a 19-11 record through 30 games.

Community Shootaround: Best Team In The West

December 21st, 2022 at 1:51pm CST by Luke Adams

After defeating Memphis on Tuesday, the Nuggets are the Western Conference leaders, becoming the latest club to take its turn atop the West’s standings. The Nuggets, who also briefly held the No. 1 seed for a couple days in mid-November, are the fourth team to lead the West so far in December, as the conference’s would-be contenders play musical chairs with the top seeds.

Since the regular season began in October, eight different teams have held the No. 1 spot in the West, with five of those clubs spending at least six days atop the conference. Of those teams, only one has spent more than 10 days holding the top seed — the Suns have led the West for 23 days so far this season.

While the Suns look like a worthy contender to finish the season as the West’s best team, they’ve been in a tailspin in the last couple weeks, losing six of their last nine games. The absences of Cameron Johnson (due to injury) and Jae Crowder (away from the team) have hurt a club that has also dealt with injuries to starting guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker in recent weeks.

The Nuggets, the current West leader, have a strong starting group led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and own the conference’s second-best offense (behind Phoenix), but they still need to get more from their bench and improve their defense, which ranks 24th in the NBA.

The Trail Blazers have led the conference for 10 days so far this season, but have had some rough patches and currently hold the No. 7 seed, albeit just 2.5 games behind Denver. Like the Nuggets, they’ve had some defensive lapses and are focused on improving a unit that ranks 23rd in the league.

The Grizzlies and Jazz have each been atop the West for nine days, though they’ve appeared headed in opposite directions as of late. Even after losing their last two games, the Grizzlies have won nine of their last 12, while Utah has dropped 10 of 16 since opening the season with a 12-6 record. The Jazz have proven to be surprisingly resilient for a club viewed as a tanker entering the season, but it’s probably safe to assume the Grizzlies will be the better team the rest of the way.

The Pelicans held the West’s top seed for six days earlier this month and remain very much in the hunt for that spot, just one game behind the Nuggets. Former No. 1 pick Zion Williamson has been firing on all cylinders in the last few weeks and we still haven’t seen New Orleans at full strength — Brandon Ingram has been sidelined since November 25 and will add another dimension to the team’s offense once he’s ready to return from his toe injury.

The Warriors (three days) and Clippers (one day) technically held the No. 1 spot in the West briefly during the early part of the season and were considered two of the best bets to make the NBA Finals entering the fall. Injuries have disrupted their momentum so far, but as long as they secure playoff berths and get healthy by the spring, no one will want to face them in the postseason.

Of the remaining seven Western teams who haven’t led the conference at all this season, the Kings (16-13), Timberwolves (16-15), Mavericks (15-16), and Lakers (13-17) are probably the only legitimate threats to make the postseason. It may be be a long shot for a Sacramento squad lacking in playoff experience or a Lakers club lacking in depth to make much noise this season, but Minnesota and Dallas have the star power necessary to make a second-half push.

We want to know what you think. In what appears to be a wide open Western Conference field, which team do you think will finish the regular season as the No. 1 seed? Do you expect the same team to represent the conference in the NBA Finals, or do you like another club to win the West in the postseason?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your two cents!

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

December 20th, 2022 at 1:44pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.

Jerami Grant, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $20,955,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Grant has proven to be a nice fit in Portland, providing efficient frontcourt scoring (.613 true shooting percentage) for the team’s seventh-ranked offense. He can score in a variety of ways and is one of the team’s better defenders, though the Blazers have fallen off considerably on that end – they’re down to 23^rd in defensive rating with a net rating barely above water (+0.4).

Grant will turn 29 in March and is in line for a big payday on his next contract. For what it’s worth, Portland would be limited during the season to offering a four-year, $112.65MM extension, so if he thinks he can get more than that, he’ll have to wait until free agency.

Bruce Brown, G/F, Nuggets

2022/23: $6,479,000
2023/24: $6,802,950 player option
Stock: Up

I was surprised Brown’s free agency foray last offseason wasn’t more lucrative after a strong postseason showing with the Nets – he ended up signing a two-year deal with Denver for the taxpayer mid-level exception. It was rumored that he had higher offers and liked the fit with the Nuggets.

Either way, he has been a valuable and consistent role player alongside reigning back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic. The versatile Brown is averaging 11.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.3 APG and 1.0 SPG on a rock-solid .492/.413/.800 (.584 TS%) shooting line through 29 games (30.2 MPG).

In addition to being head coach Michael Malone’s go-to replacement starter across multiple positions (he’s up to 17 starts), Brown is attempting – and converting – more three-pointers than ever before, up to 1.3 makes and 3.2 attempts per game, from previous career highs of 0.6 and 1.7, respectively. He has been a relative bargain thus far, but the problem for the Nuggets is if he opts out, they’ll only have his Non-Bird rights, so they’ll be limited to offering him 120% of his current contract – a deal would start at $7.8MM in 2023/24, only a $1MM raise on his player option.

If he opts out, I think Brown could at least land a deal for the non-taxpayer mid-level in free agency, which is projected to be worth $48.9MM over four years. If Denver is where he really wants to be, another option would be picking up his option and then re-signing once the Nuggets have his Early Bird rights after ’23/24 – Nicolas Batum and Bobby Portis took that route in recent years with the Clippers and Bucks, respectively.

Bryn Forbes, G, Timberwolves

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

In five consecutive seasons from 2017-22, Forbes knocked down at least 38.8% of his three-point attempts, and he owns a career rate of 41.3%. However, he has struggled this season in his rare opportunities to play, converting just 25.8% of his looks beyond the arc in 17 games (10.6 MPG).

That’s a major problem for the undersized shooting guard, because his value is almost entirely tied to his ability to make shots — he’s limited in every other area, particularly defensively. The Wolves need shooting – they’re 22^nd in 3PT% – so the fact that he hasn’t been playing obviously means head coach Chris Finch doesn’t trust him over other options. For players on minimum deals, one down season could mean they’re on the last legs of their NBA careers.

Justise Winslow, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $4,097,561
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

After dealing with several significant injuries in his eight-year career, Winslow has been relatively healthy thus far for Portland, appearing in 28 of 31 games. You would think that alone would help his stock, but he hasn’t really shown anything different than he’s done in prior seasons from a production standpoint.

Winslow is energetic, strong, a solid rebounder, an above-average play-maker and a solid defender across multiple positions, all desirable traits. He can grab a rebound and start a fast break, or initiate the offense in a half-court setting, acting as a point forward of sorts.

However, he’s very limited as a scorer – his .415/.310/.714 (.470 TS%) shooting line is very close to his career mark – so it’s hard to envision his market being robust, despite his positive attributes.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G/F, Jazz

2022/23: $5,009,633
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

The No. 17 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Alexander-Walker had a very inconsistent first three seasons. He was traded twice right before last season’s deadline, going from New Orleans to Portland to Utah, and rarely saw the court with the Jazz.

His spot in the rotation is still tenuous – he has appeared in 22 of 33 games for an average of 15.3 minutes per night. Virtually all of his counting stats are similar to his career averages. So why is his stock up?

The answer is simple: he’s posting a .491/.433/.727 (.623 TS%) shooting line and has played key defense at the end of multiple close games. Less simple is the question of whether the Jazz will be inclined give him a $7,073,602 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent – it’s too early to make that call, but if I had to guess, I’d bet they wouldn’t right now.

Still, if he keeps shooting anything close to what he has early on, he’ll likely find a multiyear contract for more than the minimum, which definitely wasn’t a lock entering ‘22/23.

Porter Jr. Upgraded To Doubtful For Tuesday

December 19th, 2022 at 7:03pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr., who has missed a dozen games due to a heel injury, has been upgraded to doubtful for Tuesday’s game against Memphis, Mike Singer of the Denver Post tweets. Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green are all listed as questionable.