- Killian Hayes needs more time to develop before anyone can determine whether he’s a long-term fit with the Pistons, Rod Beard of The Detroit News writes. The abbreviated preseason put all rookies behind the proverbial eight-ball and Hayes missed a significant chunk of time with a hip injury. The summer will be crucial for Hayes to develop his game.
- The Pistons hold the No. 2 spot heading into next month’s draft lottery. The Athletic’s James Edwards III examines some potential scenarios, depending upon where the team sits after the lottery is held.
On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.
With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…
Lottery standings
Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.
A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).
The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.
Draft order
Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.
The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.
If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.
Notable traded second-round picks
On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:
The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.
The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.
Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.
The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.
The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).
Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).
The Pistons will field an abundance of high-level talent on their 2021 Summer League team this August, details Keith Langlois of Pistons.com.
Detroit expects to have its draft selections from the 2019-2021 seasons on the Summer League roster. That will include current 2020/21 rookies Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Saben Lee, and Deividas Sirvydis, plus second-year players Sekou Doumbouya and Tyler Cook. The Pistons are currently slated to have a high first-round pick, as well as three second-rounders, in the 2021 draft.
“It’s going to be a lot of blood, sweat and tears,” head coach Dwayne Casey said of the upcoming summer session in Las Vegas. “We’ve got to go to work. They’re going to be here working. If they’re going to have a Pistons uniform on, they’re going to work this summer.”
- The top prospect on the Pistons‘ draft board is 6’8″ Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham, notes Rod Beard of the Detroit News. Beard assesses other potential options for Detroit should the club end up in the 2-6 range instead of at No. 1. Cunningham averaged 20.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 3.5 APG for the Cowboys, with a shooting line of .438/.400/.846.
During a TNT broadcast ahead of tonight’s Wizards-Pacers play-in matchup, the finalists for six big end-of-season 2020/21 awards were announced. Here is the full list, as voted on by reporters.
NBA Most Valuable Player:
- Stephen Curry (Warriors)
- Joel Embiid (Sixers)
- Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
NBA Defensive Player of the Year:
- Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
- Draymond Green (Warriors)
- Ben Simmons (Sixers)
NBA Rookie of the Year:
- LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
- Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)
- Tyrese Haliburton (Kings)
NBA Most Improved Player:
- Jerami Grant (Pistons)
- Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets)
- Julius Randle (Knicks)
NBA Sixth Man of the Year:
- Jordan Clarkson (Jazz)
- Joe Ingles (Jazz)
- Derrick Rose (Knicks)
NBA Coach of the Year:
- Quin Snyder (Jazz)
- Tom Thibodeau (Knicks)
- Monty Williams (Suns)
Some of these current contenders are familiar with the hardware they’re up for again. Curry is a two-time MVP, having won the award previously in 2015 and 2016. Gobert and Green have both previously won Defensive Player of the Year awards — Green in 2017 and Gobert in 2018 and 2019. Thibodeau was voted Coach of the Year a decade ago while with the Bulls.
The winners for the awards will be announced during the 2020/21 NBA playoffs.
The Pistons finished with the second worst record in the league, meaning they’ll slide no lower than sixth in the draft lottery. While the top five prospects in this year’s draft have been highly touted, GM Troy Weaver doesn’t want fans to automatically assume they’ll get a franchise player, Rod Beard of the Detroit News tweets.
“There’s definitely big potential in the top five. Franchise-changing? I don’t know,” Weaver said on Monday. “There’s no Shaq (Shaquille O’Neal) in this class…I’m not looking for someone in the top five to step in and change the franchise.”
We have more on the Pistons:
- Weaver blew up the roster in his first season with the franchise but he won’t be doing much wheeling and dealing this summer, according to Keith Langlois of Pistons.com. Beyond the lottery pick, the roster will have plenty of continuity. Weaver said the focus this offseason will be on internal growth. “I don’t anticipate having too many roster spots available,” Weaver said. “We like our group and we’re excited about the guys under contract and even our own free agents. I don’t anticipate much turnover at all.”
- In tune with that theme, Casey said his players won’t get much time off this summer, Langlois writes in a separate story. “Give the guys a couple of weeks off and get right back at it,” he said. “Like I told the team, this is probably one of the most important summers of their basketball-playing careers.”
- An essential part of the rebuild was retaining Casey to nurture the team’s growth, Beard writes. The extension runs he signed last week runs through the 2023/24 season. “It was extremely important that we extend Coach,” Weaver said. “It was an important part of everything we’re doing, we wanted him to be lined up with this restoration. He’s leading the cause on the floor.”
- When the Pistons traded with the Thunder for restricted free agent Hamidou Diallo, the expectation was that Detroit intended to hold onto the young wing. That remains the plan, Omari Sankofa II of the Detroit Free Press tweets. “It’s a young group that he fits and we need his talents,” Weaver said of Diallo. “If he can continue to buy into Coach Casey’s system, which he did … I think he can have a very bright future here in Detroit.”
- The Pistons sat out many of their veteran players to gave their rookies plenty of experience in the second half of the season. However, Weaver wants some seasoned players to round out the roster, James Edwards of The Athletic tweets. “Our roster construction is always going to have veterans,” he said.
- In a mailbag for The Detroit News, Rod Beard says that he expects the Pistons to try to re-sign Frank Jackson in free agency, advocates for giving Sekou Doumbouya more time to develop, and addresses a few other Pistons-related topics.
7:10pm: The extension is official, tweets Keith Langlois of NBA.com.
5:05pm: Head coach Dwane Casey will receive a contract extension from the Pistons that will run through the 2023/24 season, sources tell Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
Casey still has two years remaining on the five-year deal he signed when he came to Detroit in 2018, so the move amounts to a one-year extension. He has an 81-137 record in his three seasons with the Pistons, but the last two have been part of a major rebuilding effort.
General manager Troy Weaver has been happy with Casey’s performance in developing young talent, Wojnarowski adds, especially Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart, two of the team’s first-round picks in last year’s draft. Weaver has also been pleased that Casey has kept the team competitive despite not having much established talent on the roster.
In addition to his accomplishments with the younger players, Casey also helped free agent addition Jerami Grant adapt to a larger role in the offense than he had in Denver. Forward Josh Jackson and guard Frank Jackson have also shown promise since joining the Pistons.
The 64-year-old Casey was named Coach of the Year with the Raptors in 2017, but was fired that same season. He also spent time as head coach of the Timberwolves and has a 454-444 career record.
Pistons rookie guard Killian Hayes has appreciated the opportunity to log some time as a combo guard alongside fellow rookie ball handler Saben Lee as Detroit’s season wraps up, writes Rod Beard of The Detroit News.
“I love it,” the 6’5″ Hayes said of his minutes alongside Lee in the Pistons’ backcourt. “That’s the second game I played at the same time with Saben and I love being able to play and be off the ball… So, with me being off of it and Saben doing his thing, creating, I just like playing the combo guard.”
The Pistons’ four rookie draft picks continue to receive extensive playing time and coach Dwane Casey is encouraged by the progress of the team’s so-called “Core Four,” Keith Langlois of Pistons.com writes. That quartet of Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey and Saben Lee combined for 73 points, 22 rebounds and 19 assists against the Bulls on Sunday.
“It’s another area of growth, of toughness,” Casey said. “If you win with toughness in this league, we’d have won quite a few games. Those guys toughed it out – mentally, physically – and it says a lot about their character, who they are as people.”
We have more from the Central Division:
- Another Pistons rookie, Euro import Deividas Sirvydis, had an eight-point, six-rebound outing against Philadelphia on Saturday and he’s also trying to make an impression in the late going, Langlois writes in a separate story. Sirvydis joined Detroit during the offseason after being selected in the second round in 2019 as a draft-and-stash prospect. “The main thing with him is getting stronger, which he’s done,” Casey said. “I’ve told our guys, he’s going to be a player one day. He’s going to be one of those big two/threes who can stretch the floor.”
- Cavaliers assistant Lindsay Gottlieb is leaving the franchise when the regular season is completed. She has been named USC’s head women’s coach, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. Gottlieb, who had been on Cleveland’s staff since 2019, was the first female head coach from a Power 5 conference to become an NBA assistant coach. She previously coached Cal for eight seasons.
- While it may have been heartwarming to see 38-year-old Anderson Varejao make a brief comeback in the NBA, the Cavaliers should have evaluated a younger player looking for a chance, Joe Vardon of The Athletic argues. The team could have signed someone who played in the G League or overseas and potentially found a diamond in the rough, Vardon writes, noting that some other teams have gotten productive minutes from players on 10-day contracts or rest-of-season deals.
Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.
The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:
The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot
It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.
Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.
The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.
If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.
The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs
The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).
The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.
While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.
The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.
Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:
| # | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – |
| 6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.
In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”
For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.
Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.
The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot
The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.
Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.
Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.
For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.
Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.