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Potential 2020 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

June 15th, 2020 at 1:44pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.

A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2018/19 and 32 in 2019/20, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

In 2017, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – centers Alex Len and Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,642,800.

Jakob Poeltl (Spurs)
Thon Maker (Pistons)
Denzel Valentine (Bulls)

As the Nos. 9, 10, and 14 picks in the 2016 draft, Poeltl, Maker, and Valentine won’t be hit particularly hard by falling short of the starter criteria. Their projected qualifying offers would have ranged from approximately $5.09MM to $4.7MM, respectively, so a dip to $4.64MM shouldn’t have a major impact on their respective free agencies. Of the three players, only Poeltl looks like a lock to even receive a QO.

The top-14 pick whose situation remains unclear:

Because of the unusual circumstances surrounding this season, the usual definition of the starter criteria becomes a little more complicated. For instance, if a player started 40 games, but his team’s season ended after 65 games, should he be credited with having met the starter criteria based on the fact that he was “on pace” to do so over a full 82-game season?

There’s only one player who technically didn’t meet the starter criteria but was on pace to do so: Bulls guard Kris Dunn. After starting 44 games in 2018/19, Dunn started 32 of Chicago’s games this year, for a total of 76 over the last two seasons. If his starts this season were prorated over a full 82 games, he would have met the starter criteria.

The NBA and NBPA have agreed to prorate the criteria for performance bonuses and incentives in player contracts — it would make sense for the same rules to apply to Dunn. However, as we discussed last week, the fourth-year guard had a knee injury that was expected to sideline him for the rest of the season before COVID-19 threw the schedule into disarray. The Bulls, who had control over Dunn’s ability to make the last six starts he needed, may push back against the idea that proration should allow him to surpass the starter-criteria threshold.

ESPN’s Bobby Marks tells Hoops Rumors that Dunn will likely be deemed to have met the starter criteria, in which case his qualifying offer will be worth $7,091,457. If that changes, the value of his QO would dip to $4,642,800.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this season.

Dario Saric (Suns)

Because Saric was a 12th overall pick and met the starter criteria with 50 starts this season, he’s eligible for a qualifying offer worth $5,087,871 instead of $4,791,213. No other players fit the bill this year — many of the best players drafted between Nos. 10 and 30 in 2016 have already been extended, while the others didn’t have major roles or are no longer on their rookie contracts.

Entering the season, Malik Beasley – who logged nearly 1,900 minutes in 2018/19 – looked like the strongest candidate to join Saric in this group. However, Beasley had an inconsistent role in the Nuggets’ rotation before being traded to the Timberwolves, and ended up making just 14 starts (all with Minnesota), with 1,209 total minutes played.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

No second-round picks or undrafted free agents eligible for restricted free agency met the starter criteria this season, which would have put them in line for a qualifying offer worth $3,126,948.

Actually, Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings) technically qualified for this group, but because his initial NBA contract was more lucrative than most, his qualifying offer will be worth $10,661,733 based on other criteria, rendering the starter criteria irrelevant for him.

De’Anthony Melton, Kenrich Williams, Torrey Craig, and Jevon Carter were some of the other top candidates to meet the starter criteria among second-rounders and UDFAs, but none ultimately recorded more than 1,011 minutes (Melton) or 18 starts (Williams).

As a result, those players – and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents – won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary information from Basketball Insiders used in the creation of this post.

Thunder’s Weaver Among Favorites For Pistons’ GM Job

June 15th, 2020 at 7:46am CST by Luke Adams

Thunder executive Troy Weaver has emerged as the frontrunner for the Pistons‘ general manager opening, according to Marc Stein of The New York Times (via Twitter). Stein reports that the Pistons are “actively working” to complete a deal with Weaver, while Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports tweets that both sides want to make it happen.

Weaver, who has been with the Thunder for more than a decade following a stint with the Jazz, holds the title of vice president of basketball operations after previously serving as the team’s VP/assistant GM. He’s Sam Presti‘s top lieutenant in Oklahoma City and has been a candidate for other top basketball operations jobs around the NBA in recent years.

Weaver was reportedly in the running for the Wizards’ general manager opening a year ago before the team decided to remain in-house, promoting Tommy Sheppard. Weaver also received interest from the Bulls this spring, but reportedly turned down a second interview because he had heard Chicago was zeroing in on Arturas Karnisovas.

We heard way back in May of 2018 that the Pistons were interested in pursuing Weaver, though nothing came of it at the time — the club instead hired Ed Stefanski as a senior advisor, making him the de facto head of basketball operations. Now, Weaver may be on track to work alongside Stefanski in Detroit’s front office, and could even eventually supplant him if Stefanski shifts to a background role, as has been speculated.

However, no deal is done yet, and ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski suggests (via Twitter) that there are a couple other executives who are also considered serious candidates for the Pistons’ job. Wojnarowski identifies Clippers assistant GM Mark Hughes and Nets assistant GM Jeff Peterson as contenders for the GM vacancy, adding that conversations between the Pistons and their top candidates will continue this week.

Hughes, who was a candidate this spring for the Bulls’ GM job that was eventually filled by Marc Eversley, has been with the Clippers since 2017, having previously served as the Knicks’ director of player personnel. Peterson was an assistant GM for several years in Atlanta before being hired away from the Hawks by Brooklyn last May.

In light of the multiple reports suggesting that the Pistons would make it a priority to conduct a diverse GM search, it’s worth noting that Weaver, Hughes, and Peterson are all black.

Griffin Doesn't Believe He's In Decline

June 12th, 2020 at 7:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Spurs’ Jakob Poeltl and the Kings’ Harry Giles are two of the centers the Pistons could target in free agency, James Edwards III of The Athletic opines. Poeltl began his NBA career under Pistons coach Dwane Casey in Toronto and his agent, Michael Tellem, is the son of Pistons vice chairman Arn Tellem, Edwards notes. Giles, like Poeltl, has the ability to develop into a much greater force than he’s shown with his current club, Edwards adds.

The 2019/20 season was a wash for Pistons star forward Blake Griffin due to knee and hamstring injuries. However, the oft-injured Griffin believes he has plenty left in the tank, as he told the Detroit Free Press’ Omari Sankofa II (Twitter link) and other media members. Griffin said he doesn’t see his current contract, which lasts through the 2021/22 season, as his last. He also doesn’t view himself as being in decline. Griffin said last month he’s fully recovered from knee surgery in early January.

Pistons Notes: GM Search, Draft, Point Guard, More

June 11th, 2020 at 12:26pm CST by Luke Adams

As the Pistons continue their search for a new general manager, James L. Edwards III of The Athletic cites a high-ranking team source who says that prioritizing diversity during that process is considered “vital.”

As Edwards cautions, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Detroit’s next GM will be a person of color. However, it sounds as if the Pistons are casting a wide net as they consider candidates, and Edwards suggests he’d be “very, very surprised” if the team doesn’t hire a person of color to its front office this summer in some capacity, whether it’s as a GM, an assistant GM, or another position.

Here’s more on the Pistons:

Within the mailbag linked above, Edwards says he thinks the Pistons may play it a little safer in the 2020 NBA draft after rolling the dice on 18-year-old Sekou Doumbouya a year ago. As Edwards points out, this year’s draft class isn’t considered particularly strong to begin with, and scouting has been a challenge due to the coronavirus pandemic. As such, it might be a good time for the club to take a player it’s confident will develop into a solid pro, even if that prospect doesn’t necessarily have superstar upside. Of course, Detroit’s draft strategy will hinge in large part on where the team ends up in the lottery.
On an end-of-season conference call on Wednesday, Pistons head coach Dwane Casey said he thinks the team will look to acquire a starting point guard in the draft or free agency this offseason, per Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press (Twitter link). Derrick Rose remains under contract for one more year, but thrived primarily in a sixth-man role in 2019/20.
As Sankofa relays in a full Free Press story, Casey also said on Wednesday’s call that he was encouraged by the growth of the Pistons’ young players this season. “We found Christian Wood, who had an excellent season with us when a lot of people had given up on him,” Casey said. “Svi Mykhailiuk, I thought he made great strides as far as his shooting ability and his development. And also Bruce Brown, I thought Bruce took strides. I don’t think that he’s a starting point guard in our league. I think he’s going to be an excellent backup for us for whoever we get in that situation. But this year’s development of him is really valuable.”
We passed along a few more of Casey’s end-of-season comments on Wednesday evening.

Dwane Casey Talks Pistons’ Plans, Blake Griffin’s Health

June 10th, 2020 at 7:11pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Pistons are one of eight teams not headed to Orlando, but their practice facility has been open for about a week and players are utilizing the space, Keith Langlois of NBA.com shares.

“We’ve had great participation,” Dwane Casey said. “But it’s one player, one coach, one basket. Each player has their own ball. Coach wears gloves. So it’s a very sterile situation. The weight training and the conditioning part is also very big and that’s what they’re doing, also. From a basketball standpoint, you can only do that so long before it gets stale.”

There have been rumblings that the NBA could afford the eight teams some form of competition before the start of the 2020/21 campaign and the Pistons love the opportunity to get back on the court with other clubs.

“I know there’s been conversations with the league as far as different options to get the group together to have some type of competition later in the summer – late July, August – so the league is very aware of it. I just think it puts us as a competitive disadvantage if we go from March 11 to Dec. 1 or whenever the season reconvenes,” Casey said.

“If it’s a mini-camp or a round-robin Summer League with four of the eight teams, (that) would be sufficient,” Casey added. “Different ideas have been put out there. Especially with a young team – and all of the eight teams are young teams – you can only drill one on one and try to get guys better from an individual standpoint (so much). The teams in Orlando have a competitive advantage by going against each other in a very competitive atmosphere and it really puts us behind the eight ball from a competitive standpoint.”

Prior to the Pistons’ opening their practice facility, the league granted the team several exceptions that allowed rehabbing players to use the facility. Derrick Rose and Luke Kennard were among those.

Blake Griffin underwent left knee surgery back in January and wasn’t expected to return for the remainder of the season even if the Pistons were invited to Orlando. Casey said the former No. 1 overall pick is on track with his recovery.

“I talked to Blake yesterday. Blake is doing well,” Casey said. “He’s got his workout. Blake is one of the hardest workers I’ve been around. He’s coming along. He’s right on schedule as far as his rehab is concerned.”

Pistons Notes: Summer League, Billups, GM Search, Roster, Grades

June 8th, 2020 at 7:46pm CST by Dana Gauruder

As one of the eight teams that won’t head to Orlando to resume the season, the Pistons have made proposals to the league for a revised summer league and earlier training camp, Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press reports.

The Pistons would like to hold a “mini-summer league” in July featuring structured workouts and games against other lottery-bound teams for their younger players. They also requested to hold a team training camp in mid-September for all players under contract for next season, Sankofa adds. That wouldn’t include free agent signings and draft picks, since that would occur in October. The start of the 2020/21 season has been pushed to December.

We have more Pistons-related news:

In the same story, Sankofa indicated that Chauncey Billups is a front office candidate but not for the position he covets. The Pistons are seeking a GM and assistant GM. Billups is only interested in the GM job but the front office would rather bring him in as assistant GM and groom their 2004 NBA Finals MVP for a higher-level executive position.
The GM search signals that senior adviser Ed Stefanski will eventually move into a background role, James L. Edwards III of The Athletic notes. The franchise prefers an experienced candidate for the GM job who can make an immediate impact and oversee player evaluations and the draft, Edwards continues. It’s also possible that the Pistons will hire multiple assistant GMs and leave the GM spot vacant for next season, he adds.
Blake Griffin, Sekou Doumbouya and Bruce Brown are the players under contract most likely to remain on the roster entering next season, Keith Langlois of the team’s website opines. Derrick Rose will also likely be back, though he’d be a prime trade candidate in his walk year if the team fortifies the point guard spot, Langlois adds.
A couple of players earned A-minuses from Detroit News beat writer Rod Beard. See all his evaluations and final grades here.

Summer Transaction Window Will Be Open For All 30 Teams

June 8th, 2020 at 11:18am CST by Luke Adams

Over the weekend, we learned that the NBA intends to give teams a brief window, likely from June 22 to July 1, to convert two-way players to standard deals and otherwise tweak their 15-man rosters. Today, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports (via Twitter) that the transaction window at the end of June will be open for all 30 teams, not just the 22 resuming play in Orlando.

This is an important point because in a typical season, lottery-bound teams also make roster moves during the final week or two of play, an option that wasn’t available this April. Instead of setting their rosters for the postseason, those clubs at the bottom of the standings are looking ahead to the offseason and the following year, signing players to multiyear deals in the hopes that they’ll become low-cost contributors down the road.

The most obvious example of this form of transaction last season was provided by the Heat, who missed the playoffs but were active during the final week of the season, signing Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson to three-year contracts. The first “year” of those deals only technically lasted a day or two last April, but now Miami has Nunn and Robinson locked up on minimum-salary deals through 2020/21.

Of course, not every lottery-bound team will strike gold with late-season, multiyear signings like Miami did with Nunn and Robinson. But it’s still common for those clubs to use any open roster spots to add players who can be auditioned during the summer and fall.

This summer, as ESPN’s Bobby Marks tweets, teams like the Hornets, Cavaliers, Pistons, Timberwolves, and Warriors have available roster spots and could be looking to fill out their 15-man squads with newly-signed players (or converted two-way players). Based on Woj’s report, it sounds like they’ll have at least a week to do so at the end of June. The Knicks, Bulls, and Hawks have full rosters but would also be permitted to make changes if they so choose.

[RELATED: NBA Roster Counts For 2019/20]

When Wojnarowski and Marks reported over the weekend on the NBA’s potential pre-offseason transaction window, they noted that only players who were in the NBA, in the G League, or on training camp deals during the 2019/20 season were expected to be eligible. However, I wouldn’t expect that restriction to apply to the eight teams that won’t be resuming play in Orlando.

Idle Teams Consider Mini-Summer League

June 6th, 2020 at 3:32pm CST by Arthur Hill

The teams that won’t be invited to Orlando for the resumption of the NBA season are discussing activities to make sure their players won’t be left without games for nine months, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. That plan could involve training camps, followed by a small summer league.

Wojnarowski lists seven teams — the Hawks, Hornets, Bulls, Cavaliers, Pistons, Timberwolves and Knicks — that are supporting a plan to hold joint practices as preparation for summer league games in August. Sources tell him that Detroit and Cleveland have talked about having practices together before a “mini-pod” of games.

Ideas presented by the teams, according to Woj’s sources, include two weeks of workouts in July, regional mini-camps in August with several days of combined practices and approximately three games on television, then organized team activities in mid-September.

Also, the teams left out of Orlando are seeking permission from the NBA to start next season’s training camp a week to 10 days ahead of everyone else. Those teams are concerned that the long layoff will affect the development of their younger players, not only due to the lack of games but because of the long separation from team facilities and the structured life in the NBA.

“Nine months is too long without organized basketball,” Hawks owner Tony Ressler said. “We just can’t risk that. I think the league has heard that loud and clear. We are pushing to remain competitive. That’s what our players want. We were desperate to have something that helps us to stay competitive.”

“Not playing for eight months puts us in a competitive disadvantage, but again, I think there are creative ways to do so,” adds new Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas. “Collectively, I think these eight teams we’re getting now on calls and we have conversations of how we can develop our players and how we can have structure in place to get some practicing and possibly some scrimmaging in the offseason to catch up to the teams that are going to be playing.”

Wojnarowski points out that any games, camps or other activities would have to be negotiated by the league and the players union because they’re not part of the collective bargaining agreement. Sources tell ESPN that the league office has promised the teams it will work with them to find a solution.

Kennard's Knees Have Healed Up

June 5th, 2020 at 6:41pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Pistons swingman Luke Kennard has fully healed from the knee tendinitis that sidelined him for nearly three months before the season was suspended, Rod Beard of the Detroit News tweets. Kennard will have to wait until December to play again since the lottery-bound Pistons won’t be part of 22-team restart in Orlando. He’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension when this season ends.

Tayshaun Prince Among Intriguing Names In Pistons Front Office Search

June 4th, 2020 at 9:05pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The Pistons are still potentially considering 2004 championship small forward Tayshaun Prince for a front office position with the club, according to Omari Sanofka II of the Detroit Free Press (Twitter link). Sanofka notes that Detroit is currently on the hunt for an experienced general manager and an up-and-coming assistant, a position for which Prince, currently in the Grizzlies front office as VP of basketball affairs, is considered a prime candidate.
Progress is being made in the Pistons’ search for a new GM, according to Rod Beard of The Detroit News. Malik Rose and Pat Garrity had been the team’s top two assistant general managers, reporting directly to de facto head of basketball operations Ed Stefanski. Rose is leaving the organization and Garrity will not be in the running for the GM job. Others being considered are Thunder assistant GM Troy Weaver, Nets assistant GM Jeff Peterson, Clippers assistant GM Mark Hughes, former Hawks general manager Wes Wilcox, and former Suns general manager Ryan McDonough.