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2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division

September 13th, 2024 at 7:46am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll continue our series today with the Central Division…

Milwaukee Bucks

Cleveland Cavaliers

Indiana Pacers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

Southeast

  • Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)

Northwest

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): Over (68.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): Over (65.2%)
  • Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
  • Utah Jazz (29.5 wins): Under (60.1%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (22.5 wins): Under (54.7%)
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Central Notes: Thompson, Pistons, Bulls, Bucks

September 11th, 2024 at 10:54pm CST by Luke Adams

Tristan Thompson‘s new one-year, minimum-salary contract with the Cavaliers is non-guaranteed, tweets Michael Scotto of HoopsHype. That will give Cleveland some flexibility with Thompson’s roster spot — while the veteran center seems likely to open the regular season with the team, he could be waived on or before January 7 if the team wants to avoid locking in his full-season salary.

Thompson also waived his right to veto a trade as part of his deal with the Cavs, Hoops Rumors has learned. Players who re-sign with their previous teams on one-year contracts are typically awarded veto rights for the season, but the player can forfeit that right as part of his agreement with his club. Thompson is the 12th player this season to do so, as our tracker shows.

Here’s more from around the Central:

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Thompson, Fontecchio In Starting Five?

September 9th, 2024 at 6:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Could Ausar Thompson and Simone Fontecchio be part of the Pistons’ starting lineup? James Edwards III of The Athletic speculates that could be the case, noting that Thompson’s defense and Fontecchio’s shooting would mesh well with Cade Cunningham‘s skills and responsibilities. That would leave summer acquisitions Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. on a much improved second unit. Edwards takes an educated guess on how the team’s depth chart will shake under a new coaching staff.

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Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament

September 8th, 2024 at 7:30pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The play-in tournament ensures that at least 10 teams in each conference will get a taste of the postseason.

Unless something unforseen happens, eight teams in the Eastern Conference can already plan on playing beyond their regular season finales. It’s safe to assume the Celtics, Bucks, Sixers, Magic, Knicks, Cavaliers, Pacers and Heat will occupy eight of the postseason slots. The only mystery regarding those clubs is which two teams will have to come out of the play-in tournament.

Predicting which two Eastern teams among the remaining seven will participate in the play-in is a much tougher call. The Bulls and Hawks snared the last two spots last season, but there’s reason to believe they’ll wind up in the lottery.

The Bulls dealt away leading scorer DeMar DeRozan and top defender Alex Caruso this offseason and would like to make more moves. Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic have been on the trading block for quite a while and they could be wearing different uniforms at some point during the season. The addition of Josh Giddey, joining Coby White in the backcourt, could be enough to get them back to the play-in but that’s certainly no lock.

The Hawks, of course, broke up their high-scoring backcourt by dealing Dejounte Murray to the Pelicans. Atlanta did wind up with the top pick in the draft, but Zaccharie Risacher isn’t your typical top overall selection. No one quite knows what the Hawks have in Risacher, who is unlikely to have the sort of first-year impact that Victor Wembanyama or Brandon Miller did a year ago.

The Raptors have a much different roster than in recent years but they should improve on their 25-win total. They have built around Scottie Barnes with a backcourt of former Knicks Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett.

The Hornets could be on the upswing if LaMelo Ball can finally stay healthy for a whole season. They have two high-scoring wings in Miller and Miles Bridges.

The Wizards signed Jonas Valanciunas and have two promising forwards Bilal Coulibaly and No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr. They still seem to be a couple of years away from entering the postseason picture.

The Nets, of course, traded away their top player in Mikal Bridges with their sights set on next offseason, when they’ll have extra first-round picks and plenty of cap space.

Last, but maybe not least anymore, are the Pistons. Coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Pistons used their ample cap room to get Cade Cunningham more help. The additions of Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. should make them more competitive.

That leads us to our topic of the day: Among the Bulls, Hawks, Raptors, Hornets, Wizards, Nets and Pistons, which of those Eastern Conference teams will make the play-in tournament this upcoming season? 

Please take to the comments section to address this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Central Notes: Stewart, LaVine, Sheppard, Walker, Mathurin

September 8th, 2024 at 12:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

Isaiah Stewart‘s role under new head coach J.B. Bickerstaff is among the questions facing the Pistons as they prepare for training camp, writes Keith Langlois of NBA.com. Stewart played nearly all his minutes at center during his first two NBA seasons, but that changed when the team added Jalen Duren in 2022. Langlois notes that Stewart was used at power forward 75% of the time last season, but his primary position is less certain than ever with a revamped roster.

Other than Stewart and Duren, offseason addition Paul Reed is Detroit’s only player who projects as a center. The Pistons claimed the four-year veteran after the Sixers waived him in July. Reed has shown promise backing up Joel Embiid in Philadelphia.

Detroit also added ex-Sixer Tobias Harris in free agency, and Langlois notes that he and Simone Fontecchio are examples of modern stretch fours. It’s possible that Bickerstaff could choose to dedicate the power forward minutes to those two proven three-point shooters, leaving Stewart to battle for playing time in the middle.

There’s more from the Central Division:

  • Mending fences with Zach LaVine should be one of the priorities for the Bulls as they get ready for camp, observes Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. The front office began trying to trade LaVine last fall in what was hoped to be the first step of a roster makeover. However, his massive contract and injury history doomed trade efforts and forced the team to keep him. LaVine is still owed $138MM over the next three years, so the Bulls need to build up his trade value ahead of the February deadline. Cowley states that coach Billy Donovan took the first step toward mending their relationship when he visited LaVine in Los Angeles this summer.
  • With their roster virtually set for the upcoming season, the Pacers are facing three option decisions that should be easy, per Tony East of Sports Illustrated. Indiana has until October 31 to pick up the third-year options for Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker, along with the fourth-year option for Bennedict Mathurin. All three players appear to be part of the team’s future, so there’s no reason to part with any of them. The options would pay Sheppard $2.8MM, Walker $6.6MM and Mathurin $9.1MM for the 2025/26 season.
  • The Pacers announced in a press release that they have added Dr. Jaimie Rubin as Director of Sport Psychology and Team Wellness.
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Central Notes: Horton-Tucker, Bulls, Bucks, Pistons

September 5th, 2024 at 1:08pm CST by Rory Maher

Free agent guard Talen Horton-Tucker will reportedly be signing with his hometown Bulls. According to K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago, the five-year veteran will sign an Exhibit 10 deal for training camp.

Shams Charania of The Athletic, who broke the news of both deals, said that Horton-Tucker and Mac McClung (Magic) received partially guaranteed contracts. From the players’ perspective, that’s not wrong in a sense — the Exhibit 10 language in their contracts makes them eligible for a bonus worth $77.5K (on top of their G League salaries) if they’re waived and spend at least 60 days with their clubs’ NBAGL affiliates.

It is misleading though, because for NBA teams, Exhibit 10 deals are one-year, minimum-salary contracts that are non-guaranteed. For example, if Horton-Tucker is immediately cut after the deal is official, the Bulls won’t carry any dead money toward the salary cap. That’s different than a player like Keon Johnson — if the Nets waive him today for whatever reason, they would owe him his full $250K partial guarantee while carrying an identical dead-money cap hit for 2024/25.

Here’s more from the Central:

  • In another story for NBC Sports Chicago, Johnson attempts to predict the Bulls‘ starting lineup and rotation. Despite the obvious defensive shortcomings, Johnson believes Josh Giddey, Coby White, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams and Nikola Vucevic is the “most logical” outcome for the starting five. However, only Ayo Dosunmu and free agent addition Jalen Smith seem like locks for rotation minutes off the bench, per Johnson.
  • Eric Nehm of The Athletic answers mailbag questions related to the Bucks, including whether they should reduce Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s workload during the upcoming season to try to keep him fresh ahead of a potential playoff run. Nehm also examines whether Taurean Prince could be used at power forward in small-ball lineups featuring Antetokounmpo at center.
  • Will the Pistons carry a 15th player on their standard roster to open the season? What about their remaining cap room — will they use it before the season starts or carry it over until the trade deadline? Keith Langlois of Pistons.com explores those questions.
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Backup Point Likely Already On Roster

September 3rd, 2024 at 8:48pm CST by Dana Gauruder
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G League Notes: Simpson, Boeheim, McGowens, More

September 2nd, 2024 at 3:15pm CST by Tristan Tucker

The Hornets‘, Pistons‘, Spurs‘ and Thunder‘s G League affiliates completed a four-team trade, according to a release (Twitter link) and the G League transactions log.

In the trade, the Greensboro Swarm (Hornets) obtained the returning player rights to both Zavier Simpson and Caleb McConnell. The Motor City Cruise (Pistons) acquired RaiQuan Gray‘s rights, along with OKC’s 2025 second-round pick. The Austin Spurs got the rights to Nathan Mensah while the Oklahoma City Blue obtained Buddy Boeheim‘s.

Acquiring a player’s returning G League rights doesn’t necessarily mean that player will suit up for his new team. These trades ensure that if a player signs an NBAGL contract, he will play for the club that acquired his rights. When deals occur at this point in the offseason, they’re often precursors to players signing Exhibit 10 contracts with the parent club, lining them up to receive a bonus worth up to $77.5K if they’re waived and then spent at least 60 days in the G League.

This deal appears to be for exactly those purposes, at least in part. Mensah and Boeheim reportedly agreed to training camp deals with the Spurs and Thunder, respectively, so these trades indicate those agreements will be completed soon. Mensah played in 25 games for the Hornets last season, averaging 1.3 points and 2.6 rebounds per contest. Boeheim played two seasons with the Pistons, appearing in 20 games and averaging 2.5 PPG.

The other names in the trade are interesting. Simpson played in Summer League with the Hornets but previous reporting from HoopsHype indicated he was set to head overseas this season. He may very well still be doing that, but Charlotte clearly likes him. Gray, meanwhile, was traded while on a two-way contract to the Bulls before being waived.

Simpson has 11 games of NBA experience, averaging 7.8 points and 5.0 assists. McConnell, a former Rutgers player, also played for Charlotte in Summer League. While he hasn’t yet appeared in an NBA game, he suited up for 47 G League contests and averaged 7.1 points and 5.7 rebounds last season. Gray played parts of two seasons with the Nets and then Spurs, averaging 9.8 points in his four games.

We have more from the G League:

  • The Cruise and Spurs participated in another multi-team trade, with Motor City acquiring the rights to Javante McCoy and Reggie Kissoonlal along with unspecified draft capital, according to the log and a team release (Twitter link). Austin obtained the rights to Isaiah Miller and Jaylen Johnson, while the Salt Lake City Stars (Jazz) got a 2025 first round pick and Jayce Johnson. None of those players have yet agreed to sign Exhibit 10 deals, but as teams start fielding their training camp rosters, they’ll be names to monitor. All players involved have previously participated in training camps with NBA teams.
  • The Long Island Nets and Cleveland Charge completed their own trade, with the rights to Trey McGowens heading to Cleveland in exchange for Tray Maddox‘s rights (Twitter link). McGowens signed an Exhibit 10 with Brooklyn last season and averaged 10.1 points in 16 G League games last season. Maddox, a Western Michigan product who went undrafted in 2023, averaged 6.1 PPG last season for the Charge.
  • In case you missed it, Lonnie Walker IV signed an Exhibit 10 deal with the Celtics and may end up playing for their G League affiliate this season, at least to begin the year.
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Nine NBA Teams Have Two-Way Contract Openings

September 1st, 2024 at 9:11am CST by Rory Maher

Two-way contracts allow NBA teams to carry three extra players in addition to the 15 on their regular season roster. These players generally bounce back and forth between the NBA and G League, but remain under team control and can’t be poached by rival franchises.

With training camps set to begin in about a month, there are still nine NBA teams with open two-way spots. Two clubs — the Nets and Magic — each have a pair of two-way openings, while the remaining seven teams have one opening apiece. That means there are currently 11 two-way openings in the NBA.

Here’s the full list of NBA teams with two-way vacancies, as shown by our 2024/25 two-way contract tracker:

  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Chicago Bulls
  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Detroit Pistons
  • Los Angeles Clippers
  • Orlando Magic
  • Portland Trail Blazers
  • Washington Wizards

Technically, the Cavaliers have yet to finalize their reported two-way deal with JT Thor, but we expect that to occur at some point before training camp — that’s why they are not included on this list.

Since two-way deals are non-guaranteed and don’t count against the salary cap, it’s pretty common to see players shuffled in and out of rosters both before and during the season. It’s worth noting that Exhibit 10 deals can be converted to two-way contracts under certain conditions — these teams may be waiting until training camp and preseason to get a better look at young players.

First introduced in 2017, two-way deals have undergone some rule changes in recent years, and the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement has updated them further. Here are some key points to remember:

  • Teams can now carry three players on two-way contracts, rather than two.
  • Two-way players are eligible to be active for up to 50 of their team’s 82 regular season games. If a team isn’t carrying a full 15-man standard roster, its two-way players can only be active for a combined 90 games.
  • Players on two-way contracts will earn $578,577 in 2024/25, half of the rookie minimum.
  • Two-way contracts can’t be signed after March 4.

You can check out our glossary entry to learn more about two-way contracts.

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And-Ones: Rookie Scale Extensions, $500MM Players, Beverley, Muhammad, T. Robinson

August 31st, 2024 at 7:01pm CST by Arthur Hill

Three of the first four players selected in the 2021 draft have already received rookie scale extensions, but Rockets guard Jalen Green may have to wait until next summer, writes Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report. Despite a strong finish to last season, there are still questions about Green after three years in the NBA. Houston may want to maximize its cap space for 2025, and Pincus suggests the Rockets’ final offer to Green may not be in the neighborhood of what fellow top four picks Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes received.

That philosophy would also affect Alperen Sengun, who was taken with the 16th pick in 2021. Pincus suggests that Sengun could receive a generous offer before the October 21 deadline if the Rockets are planning to pick up Fred VanVleet‘s $44.9MM option for the 2025/26 season. However, the Turkish center will only have a $16.3MM cap hold if the team plans to decline its option on VanVleet and operate using cap space.

Pincus’ comments are part of his analysis of the entire first round from 2021 and the likelihood of an extension for each remaining player. He gives a C-minus to Cunningham’s new deal, stating that the Pistons assumed unnecessary risk when they could have signed him to a similar contract next summer. The Cavaliers‘ Mobley extension gets a B-minus from Pincus, while the Raptors‘ Barnes extension rates a B-plus.

There’s more news from around the basketball world:

  • Stephen Curry‘s extension with the Warriors and Paul George‘s max contract with the Sixers will push them above $500MM in career earnings, joining LeBron James and Kevin Durant as the only players with deals in place to reach that figure, notes Steve Henson of The Los Angeles Times. James Harden will top $400MM under his new two-year, $70MM deal with the Clippers, while Chris Paul will get close to that number after joining the Spurs for one year at $10.46MM.
  • Longtime NBA guard Patrick Beverley made his debut for Hapoel Tel Aviv today in Israel, according to Eurohoops. Beverley, 36, was in the starting lineup and contributed three points, six assists and his typical intense defense in a preseason win over Elitzur Ironi Netanya.
  • Former NBA players Shabazz Muhammad and Thomas Robinson have signed with Homenetmen Beirut, per Dario Skerletic of Sportando. Muhammad, who joined the Kings’ G League affiliate in January, last played in the NBA during the 2017/18 season. Robinson, a lottery pick in 2012, has been out of the league for seven years.
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