Extension Candidate

Extension Candidate: Rudy Gobert

August 25th, 2016 at 7:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The increased usage of smaller lineups, along with a greater emphasis on 3-point shooting, theoretically reduces the need for a quality center. Considering the contracts being handed out, that’s not the case.

Hassan Whiteside, despite a somewhat limited track record, was a hot commodity on the free agent market this summer. He received a max four-year extension to stick with the Heat. Joakim Noah, who lost his starting job with the Bulls and was injured the second half of last season, got a truckload of money to sign with the Knicks.

Andre Drummond, even with his free throw shooting issues, received a max five-year extension from the Pistons.

Unheralded centers such as Timofey Mozgov, Ian Mahinmi and Bismack Biyombo landed giant contracts while jumping teams.

Given those developments, Rudy Gobert shouldn’t have much trouble receiving a max contract offer — or something close to it — from the Jazz. The biggest question mark is whether Utah will decide to lock up its defensive stalwart prior to the regular season or take some risk by waiting until next summer, when Gobert can become a restricted free agent.

The two parties agreed to delay the process until the Rio Olympics wrapped up. Gobert was busy playing for Team France, then decided to stay overseas for a couple of weeks before returning to Utah late this month or in early September to get ready for the NBA season.

From a salary cap standpoint, the Jazz certainly have the freedom to hammer out an agreement by the end of training camp, the deadline for rookie scale contract extensions. One or both parties might also want to get it done before the possibility that NBA Players’ Association or the league opts out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. That could occur in mid-December and go into effect after the season.

Utah has just $34.3MM in guaranteed salary commitments for 2017/18, though its inclusive totals (non-guaranteed salaries, early termination options, etc.) is closer to $78.3MM. The projected salary cap for that season is $102MM.

So why would the Jazz wait to extend Gobert entering his prime years at 24 years old? The 7’1” Gobert has a modest $5.3MM cap hold. That gives the Jazz plenty of flexibility in terms of re-signing their free agents, pursuing top free agents and making trades next offseason if they hold off on Gobert’s extension.

Utah also has some major decisions regarding two of its other top players. Power forward Derrick Favors is eligible for a veteran’s extension right now. Small forward Gordon Hayward can opt out of the final year of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent next summer. Hayward will almost certainly command a max salary if Utah tries to retain him.

Point guard George Hill, arguably the Jazz’s biggest addition this offseason, is entering his walk year. Hill’s current $8MM salary is well under market value for a starter and if the Jazz want to make him a competitive offer next summer, they’ll probably have to give him a huge raise.

Gobert has not been a major part of the Jazz’s offense, even as his playing time has grown the past two seasons. He’s never averaged more than six shot attempts in his three NBA seasons.

As a part-time starter in 2014/15, Gobert averaged 8.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. Those numbers improved slightly to 9.1/11.0/2.2 as a starter last season, though he was limited to 61 games because of injuries.

Free throw shooting is also a problem for Gobert — he’s made 58.5% of his foul shots during his short NBA career.

His value on the defensive end overshadows his offensive deficiencies. According to Basketball-Reference.com’s Defensive Box Rating, he was the league’s second-best defender (4.8) last season behind the Spurs’ recently-retired Tim Duncan (5.0). His Defensive Box Rating the previous season was even higher at 5.1, behind only the Warriors’ Andrew Bogut (5.5).

Difference makers on either side of the ball are hard to find and there’s no viable option on the roster to replace Gobert. Thus, it’s reasonable to assume he’ll be maxed out, though it’s conceivable he could give the club a little discount in order to get the extension done early. Remember, if the Players’ Association or league opts out of the CBA, the rules regarding contracts could be significantly altered.

How much could Gobert receive? According to Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders, players with less than seven years of service could get a max of approximately $24MM under the projected cap of $102MM. With 7.5% raises each season, Gobert could sign a four-year extension worth approximately $107.35MM. A five-year extension could max out around $139.4MM.

That’s an awful lot of money to shell out for someone who isn’t an offensive threat or considered a franchise-type player. Having multiple players making max money severely curtails what clubs can do with their rosters, even with the recent rise in the salary cap. The Jazz might be hesitant to commit about half its cap to Hayward and Gobert, who fall short of superstar status.

Yet it’s abundantly clear that retaining Gobert will require something at or close to the max. The market for big men is as competitive as ever, whether or not teams continue to play small ball.

(Photo courtesy of John David Mercer / USA Today Sports Images)

Extension Candidate: Steven Adams

August 25th, 2016 at 11:31am CST by Luke Adams

The Thunder locked up their top extension candidate of the offseason earlier this month, when they inked Russell Westbrook to a new three-year deal that will keep him under team control though at least the 2017/18 season. Still, even after extending Westbrook, the Thunder have more candidates for new deals than virtually any other team in the NBA.

Arthur Hill of Hoops Rumors recently examined the case for a new contract for Victor Oladipo, who arrived in Oklahoma City as a part of the Serge Ibaka trade and is entering the final year of his rookie deal. Like Oladipo, Andre Roberson is also extension-eligible for the first time this offseason, as his rookie contract nears its end. With Kevin Durant no longer a member of the Thunder, the team figures to rely on Oladipo and Roberson to take on larger roles in the short term than they otherwise would have, and may be counting on them to be long-term pieces as well.

With Westbrook locked up though, the title of the Thunder’s most important extension candidate now belongs to Steven Adams. A former lottery pick, Adams single-handedly salvaged the James Harden trade for Oklahoma City, and has evolved into one of the NBA’s more steady and reliable centers.

In 2015/16, Adams averaged a modest 8.0 PPG to go along with 6.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG, and a .613 FG%. Those numbers aren’t eye-popping, and his career .551 FT% is a cause for some concern. However, Adams’ showing in the postseason provided a better picture of his importance to the Thunder. In 18 playoff games, the New Zealand native saw his minutes per game increase from 25.2 to 30.7, and he nearly averaged a double-double in those contests, with 10.1 PPG and 9.5 RPG.

Durant’s departure means that there will be a few more shots to go around on offense, and the loss of Ibaka will put more pressure on the Thunder’s remaining interior defenders, so the franchise may be expecting a major step forward from Adams on both ends of the floor. The former University of Pittsburgh standout just turned 23 last month, so his best years should still be ahead of him, and he’s in a great position to have a breakout season in 2016/17. Which raises the question: Should the Thunder lock him up now to avoid having him reach restricted free agency next summer?

To answer that question, it’s worth considering what an extension for Adams would cost. A huge 2016/17 season would certainly make him a lock for a maximum-salary deal next July, but given the jump the salary cap took this year, and the free agent prices we saw last month, Adams may not even need to take a significant step forward this season to be worth the max — that may already be his price, given how valuable young rim protectors are. With so many teams opening up significant chunks of cap room every summer, Adams likely wouldn’t have any trouble finding a max offer next year.

If the Thunder assume it will take a max deal to lock up Adams, there are plenty of arguments for waiting until next summer to complete an extension. First and foremost, the former 12th overall pick would have a cap hold worth just below $8MM as a restricted free agent. As we saw with the Pistons and Andre Drummond – as well as the Wizards and Bradley Beal – keeping an RFA’s cap hold on the books for a little while, having already agreed to a max deal with that player, allows a team to maintain significant cap flexibility and pursue other free agents.

The NBA’s most recent salary cap projection for 2017/18, which is probably a little on the cautious side, would result in a max salary for Adams starting at around $24MM. In other words, Oklahoma City would give up $16MM+ in potential salary cap space at the start of free agency by extending Adams this offseason rather than waiting until next summer to make things official.

For a team that has aspirations of pursuing a major free agent such as Oklahoma native Blake Griffin, that extra cap room could be a huge factor. Depending on how optimistic the Thunder are about landing a big-time free agent, the team could hold off on new deals for Adams, Oladipo, and Roberson in order to maximize 2017’s cap flexibility. Waiting on extensions would also alleviate some risk for the team — OKC wouldn’t want to see a newly-extended player suffer a major injury or take a huge step backward in 2016/17, before that new deal even goes into effect.

Of course, as much as it might make sense from a roster-building perspective for the Thunder to wait until July to lock up Adams, the team must also be cognizant of how things transpired this summer with Durant. Adams would be a restricted free agent in 2017, so the Thunder wouldn’t risk losing him to a rival suitor as long as they’re willing to offer the max. But Durant’s departure means the franchise may want to redouble its efforts to make its own core players feel secure.

Westbrook’s extension, which gave him a pay increase of about $9MM for the coming season, was a solid start. Getting something done with Adams before they have to do anything might be the next step for the Thunder. It would be a show of good faith for a player who is extremely important to the franchise, and perhaps it would pay dividends down the road — Adams or another star player might factor the club’s willingness to take care of its own into a future free agent decision. And if Adams is willing to compromise by taking a slight hometown discount this fall, that’s all the more reason for OKC to work something out sooner rather than later.

Barring a significant change of direction for the franchise, there’s little doubt that Adams will remain with the Thunder beyond this season, and he’ll likely stick with the team for a few more years. But when and how the two sides finalize his next contract will be fascinating to watch. Signing Adams to a big-money extension this offseason would severely limit the Thunder’s ability to be major players in next summer’s free agency, barring an Enes Kanter trade. But for a team that just lost the longtime face of its franchise, locking up core players sooner rather than later could be a stronger priority than usual this fall.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 Extension Candidate Series

August 22nd, 2016 at 1:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Since the NBA’s 2016/17 league year got underway, three players have signed contract extensions with their current teams prior to reaching free agency. C.J. McCollum inked a rookie-scale extension with the Trail Blazers, while James Harden and Russell Westbrook agreed to veteran extensions with the Rockets and Thunder, respectively.

We didn’t get a chance to take a closer, in-depth look at Harden’s or McCollum’s case for an extension before those deals were finalized, but we did examine Westbrook’s situation in Oklahoma City, just days before he and the Thunder reached an agreement. That was the first of several pieces we’ll publish this offseason profiling and analyzing extension candidates. These posts will outline the merits of an extension for the player and his team, dissect the player’s value, and project whether or not a deal is likely.

With many players eligible for either a rookie-scale extension or a veteran extension this year, there should be no shortage of candidates to consider. Listed below are the extension candidates we’ve examined so far. This list, which we’ll continue to update throughout the offseason, can be found at any time on our right-hand sidebar under the Hoops Rumors Features menu.

Steven Adams, Thunder (link)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (link)
- Signed extension on September 20
Derrick Favors, Jazz (link)
Paul George, Pacers (link)
Rudy Gobert, Jazz (link)
Victor Oladipo, Thunder (link)
Russell Westbrook, Thunder (link)
- Signed extension on August 4

Extension Candidate: Giannis Antetokounmpo

August 15th, 2016 at 6:42pm CST by Arthur Hill

Of all the teams with rookie extension decisions to make this offseason, the easiest one belongs to the Bucks.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has developed into a team leader during his first three years in Milwaukee, averaging 16.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists last season. At age 21, the Greek star is seen as the future of the franchise, which is trying to build a contending team around a core of young, versatile athletes.

That process starts with Antetokounmpo, who has emerged as one of the best young players in the league and is considered to be a future All-Star and possibly an MVP candidate one day.

Jared Dudley, who spent the 2014/15 season with the Bucks, talked about the development of Antetokounmpo during a recent appearance on a podcast with ESPN’s Zach Lowe. Dudley had a first-hand view as Antetokounmpo began to evolve from a rookie to a legitimate NBA star.

“It’s Giannis’ team,” Dudley said. “You’re only going to go as far as him. Once Jabari [Parker] takes that next step — he was a lot better second half than he was first — but as of right now, people have to know this is Giannis’ team. You fall in line to try to make people better around him.

“If you see [coach Jason Kidd], he was strict on Giannis when I was there. He was on Giannis more than anybody, because he knew. And now he’s given Giannis the keys.”

“The keys” came via a decision to run the offense through Antetokounmpo after a mid-season injury to Michael Carter-Williams. After the point guard went down with a torn labrum in his left hip that required season-ending surgery, Antetokounmpo took over that position and flashed frightening glimpses of what he can do as a creator.

Once he became the main ball handler after the All-Star break, Antetokounmpo posted averages of 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.9 blocks, and the Bucks’ offensive efficiency increased by 2.2 points per game. Opposing defenses scrambled to find a way to deal with a speedy 6’11” point guard who has impeccable court vision and elite leaping ability.

Kidd explained the move in a post on his website, saying it was something he had been considering since training camp, but he felt more freedom to experiment once the Bucks slid out of the playoff race. Kidd said Antetokounmpo still has a lot to learn about his new position, but the switch provides a better showcase for his athleticism and creativity.

“It got him in the open court, which highlights his natural abilities,” Kidd wrote. “One of his strengths is being able to find guys, and he did a really good job with that. Being able to see the floor the way that he does makes the game easy. It makes it exciting for his teammates because they all know they have a chance of getting the ball. Being as tall as he is, he has so many natural advantages. His skill set — to be able get into the paint and finish — puts a lot of pressure on a defense.

“There are still plenty of things he has to learn, and hopefully, as a point guard myself, I can help him understand game management—the importance of time and score, and just the little things it takes to be a good point guard. … He’s a competitor. He wants to win and he wants to be great. It’s just a matter of time before he’s an All-Star on a consistent basis.”

That’s why the Bucks would like to get an extension with Antetokounmpo wrapped up as quickly as possible. They face an October 31st deadline to finalize a new deal that would prevent him from becoming a restricted free agent next summer.

Antetokounmpo is eligible for a five-year extension that would pay him approximately $138MM, and both he and the team have expressed a desire to get a deal done. In an interview shortly after last season ended, Antetokounmpo told Gary D’Amato of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that he believes his long-term future is in Milwaukee. “That was what everyone’s been working for, for them to extend me,” Antetokounmpo said. “Hopefully, I stay here 20 years and I get my Greek Freak Day like Kobe [Bryant].”

One reason the deal hasn’t been signed already is that Antetokounmpo has been spending the summer completing his obligation to the Greek army. All Greek men who live permanently overseas are required to prove three months of service to the military, and Giannis and his brother Thanassis have been working at an armor training center near Athens.

Once Antetokounmpo’s military training is complete, the extension will be a high priority for Milwaukee before training camp opens. The Bucks know what they have in Antetokounmpo. He earned the “Greek Freak” nickname because of his 7’4″ wingspan, his elite athleticism and a breathtaking ability to go from one end of the court to the other in four dribbles or fewer. He’s the cornerstone of what the Bucks are trying to build, and the idea of him spending 20 years in Milwaukee seems very possible.

Jeff Hanisch / USA TODAY Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Victor Oladipo

August 12th, 2016 at 11:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Thunder won’t get to watch Victor Oladipo as part of their team for very long before having to make an important decision. The 6-4 combo guard, who was acquired from the Magic in a draft-day trade, will be entering his fourth NBA season this fall, making him eligible for a rookie scale extension.

The extension deadline is October 31st, and Oklahoma City has just three regular season games before that date arrives. So the Thunder front office will have to base its decision largely on the three productive seasons Oladipo had in Orlando before the deal was made.

After being taken second overall in the 2013 draft, Oladipo developed quickly with the Magic, playing 80 games as a rookie and starting 44. His best season came in 2014/15, when he started 71 of the 72 games he appeared in and averaged 17.9 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists per night. His scoring average dipped to 16.0 last season and he suffered two concussions and battled a variety of other injuries, starting just 52 of the 72 games he played.

But the Thunder saw enough that they liked in Oladipo to give up Serge Ibaka, one of the cornerstones of their recent success, to add him to their roster, along with veteran power forward Ersan Ilyasova and the rights to rookie big man Domantas Sabonis. Oklahoma City GM Sam Presti explained the move at a press conference on draft night, saying the Thunder will benefit from Oladipo’s competitive attitude.

“I think the number one thing with Victor is his make-up,” Presti said about his new guard. “… He is tough-minded, he’s competitive, he’s selfless. He is a guy that we really feel like not only brings things on the floor for us, but I think he’s going to be a real add to our environment, our culture on an everyday basis.”

Presti also said he was intrigued by Oladipo’s ability to play multiple positions, noting that his flexibility will give coach Billy Donovan more options when it comes to designing lineups.

But if the Thunder hope to keep Oladipo as a long-term backcourt partner for Russell Westbrook, they will need to make a significant salary commitment, whether it comes by October 31st or next offseason. Oladipo has made no secret about his desire for a full maximum extension, writes Erik Horne of The Oklahoman.

The former Indiana Hoosiers star was paid roughly $4.7MM, $4.9MM and $5.1MM during his first three years in the NBA and will receive a little more than $6.5MM next season. A maximum deal would bring his salary close to $24MM for 2017/18, with annual raises as high as 7.5% to follow.

Oklahoma City has a recent history of not giving rookie extensions to guards who were eligible to receive them. In 2014/15, the Thunder couldn’t reach a deal with combo guard Reggie Jackson and wound up trading him to the Pistons. Last year, OKC let the extension deadline pass for shooting guard Dion Waiters. The Thunder pulled their qualifying offer to Waiters last month, freeing him up to sign with the Heat.

But the Thunder front office is expected to try much harder to reach a deal with Oladipo, considering the price they paid to acquire him. Giving up Ibaka, who helped make Oklahoma City one of the league’s best teams during his seven seasons with the franchise, suggests that Oladipo will be an important part of the team’s long-term plans.

If the sides can’t reach an agreement before Halloween, Oladipo will become a restricted free agent after the season, joining center Steven Adams and shooting guard Andre Roberson in that category. With Adams coming off a breakthrough season and also likely to be in the market for a max or near-max deal next summer, it may be in the Thunder’s best interests to reach a deal with Oladipo before the deadline arrives.

The contract situations of Oladipo and Adams led the Thunder to be conservative in free agency this offseason, once Kevin Durant announced that he was leaving for Golden State. Other than re-signing and extending Westbrook, OKC’s only significant offseason moves were to bring back veteran Anthony Morrow at $3.4MM and sign Spanish star Alex Abrines for nearly $6MM.

The Thunder are in a unique situation as they address their short- and long-term future. The loss of Durant means they aren’t an elite NBA power any more, but the deal with Westbrook should keep them in playoff contention and may give them a shot at hosting a first-round series. Oladipo, at age 24, and Adams, at 23, are expected to be part of the core in Oklahoma City as the team tries to establish a new identity. Over the next year, it will be in the Thunder’s best interests to keep them both happy and lock them down with new contracts for as long as possible.

Photo courtesy of Mike DiNovo / USA TODAY Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Derrick Favors

August 8th, 2016 at 7:51pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Veteran contract extensions rarely occur in the NBA. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement places heavy restrictions on contract restructuring and extensions. In most cases, it doesn’t make sense for one party or the other.

This summer, a couple of notable exceptions have popped up. James Harden agreed to a max extension, allowing the Rockets to lock up their franchise player for at least another year beyond the two seasons remaining on his contract. Russell Westbrook, who could have become an unrestricted free agent next summer, agreed to a max extension with the Thunder that will keep him under contract for at least another season.

Both players could remain with their respective teams — Harden in 2019/20 and Westbrook in 2018/19 — for an additional season if they decide not to opt out of the final year of those extensions.

Jazz power forward Derrick Favors doesn’t have the star power or resume of that duo but he, too, is eligible for a veteran extension this offseason. The player’s current contract must be at least four years to qualify for an extension and Favors signed a four-year, rookie-scale extension in October 2013.

Favors could officially sign a veteran’s extension during training camp on the third-year anniversary of his current contract. There’s ample financial reasons for Favors to work out such an agreement.

Favors is scheduled to make $11.05MM this season and $12MM in 2017/18. If he received a bottom tier max from the Jazz, he could essentially double his salary for the next two seasons.

Utah currently has more than $10MM in salary-cap space and could open up a little more by waiving a player with a non-guaranteed contract. They have two such players on the books — Chris Johnson and Jeff Withey.

From that point, Favors could receive two more years on his deal, though the numbers could range wildly. He could either get the max 7.5% raises in those two years. Conversely, the numbers could nosedive by as much as a 40% maximum decrease in the first year of the extension and another 7.5% decrease in the final season.

As Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders details, that means Favors could wind up with a four-year restructuring/extension worth anywhere from $70MM to $99MM. If Favors waited until he became an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2018, the max he could earn over the next four years would be approximately $86.3MM.

LIke Harden and Westbrook, he could aim for an opt-out in the final year of the extension, though the Jazz might not be interested in doing so. If they agreed to an opt-out, they’d be giving him a whopping raise while only being assured of having him an additional season. That would be a very generous offer to a player who hasn’t made an All-Star team.

The Jazz also have major decisions to make regarding two of their other top players. Leading scorer Gordon Hayward will almost assuredly opt out of the final year of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent next summer. Utah will have to decide whether to sit back and hope Hayward re-signs next summer or whether to explore trade possibilities, though Hayward has a 15% trade kicker in his contract.

Center Rudy Gobert is eligible for a rookie-scale extension before the start of the season, though the Jazz could also lock him up next summer when he becomes a restricted free agent.

Favors is undoubtedly a productive, if somewhat brittle, player who is entering his prime years. He’s just 25 years old and coming off back-to-back years in which he averaged at least 16 points, eight rebounds and 1.5 blocks. Favors has missed some time with assorted injuries since he started playing regularly — nine games in 2013/14, eight in 2014/15 and 20 last season.

Advanced stats are generally kind to Favors. He posted a rock-solid 21.71 PER last season, well above the 15.0 average. His offensive and defensive box ratings via BasketballReference.com are also above average, though he’s never had an OBR above 1.0. His overall Box Plus/Minus of 2.7 last season was a career best.

There’s another factor the Jazz must consider in their decision whether to extend Favors — what kind of player do they project Trey Lyles to be over the next few seasons?

The 2015 lottery pick posted modest stats in his first season, averaging 6.1 points and 3.7 rebounds. On the flip side, Lyles played well enough to remain in the rotation all season and he’s just 20 years old. If Utah believes Lyles could develop into a starter at power forward and possibly replace Favors two years down the road, what’s the incentive to extend Favors?

Either Favors or the club could decide to put off extension talks until next summer. He’d still be eligible for an extension entering the final year of his contract, as Westbrook was this summer. The tricky part is there’s no guarantee the current rules will still be in place.

Negotiations between the league and the Players’ Association appear to be going well but if they break down, either side could opt out of the CBA next summer. Even if the sides reach an agreement on a new CBA, the rules could change in terms of veteran extensions.

Given his team-friendly contract, Favors and agent Wallace Prather have plenty of motivation to get something done this summer. The Jazz will probably be willing to accommodate them, as long as Favors doesn’t shoot for the max and an opt-out clause.

Photo courtesy of Jeff Swinger / USA Today Sports

Extension Candidate: Russell Westbrook

August 1st, 2016 at 9:01pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Kevin Durant‘s decision to join the Warriors presents All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook with a difficult dilemma. The way the Collective Bargaining Agreement is structured makes Westbrook’s decision even more complex.

In most cases, productive veteran players have little incentive to restructure their current contracts and sign an extension. Not so in Westbrook’s case. The Thunder exercised caution this summer once Durant chose to join forces with the two-time Western Conference champions. Outside of adding Euro Alex Abrines via free agency, they essentially stood pat.

When free agent guard Dion Waiters signed with the Heat, his cap hold disappeared and Oklahoma City had more than enough salary-cap room to offer Westbrook a maximum extension.

Westbrook could elevate his salary for the upcoming season from approximately $17.8MM to $26.5MM. Since these types of extensions are capped at four seasons and include the remaining years on the current deal, Westbrook could sign only through the 2019/20 season. As Tommy Beer of Basketball Insiders details, Westbrook would essentially be agreeing to a four-year contract worth nearly $118MM.

The bump in salary for the upcoming season would allow Westbrook to make more money over the next four seasons than he could through unrestricted free agency. With a projected cap of $102MM, Westbrook would make $110.7MM if he re-signed with Oklahoma City as a free agent or $108.2MM if he signed elsewhere.

The flip side is that Westbrook could get two additional years by re-signing with the Thunder via free agency and add another $74MM to his coffers, or one more year and approximately $33MM if he chose to leave Oklahoma City.

Another intriguing scenario, as The Vertical’s Bobby Marks recently pointed out, is that Westbrook could sign a shorter extension with a player opt-out. In that case, Westbrook could become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2018. By virtue of being a 10-year player at that point, his starting salary would be $35MM and the team owning his Bird Rights could pay him upwards of $200MM over five seasons.

Westbrook could sign an extension any time before the end of February, though he’d be leaving money on the table if he waited until after the season started.

So which way is Westbrook leaning? Thunder management probably doesn’t know the answer at this juncture. He reportedly was surprised and upset that Durant didn’t re-sign to continue chasing a championship with him in Oklahoma City. Westbrook has also kept an extremely low profile this offseason, shunning the media and social platforms.

He’s fully aware that the Thunder, as presently constituted, are no longer a serious contender and could struggle to make the playoffs. Oklahoma City made a big trade on draft night, acquiring shooting guard Victor Oladipo in a package that sent power forward Serge Ibaka to Orlando. The Thunder brass felt that Oladipo’s scoring ability could take some pressure off Westbrook and Durant, particularly in the postseason.

Now, Oladipo becomes the Thunder’s No. 2 option behind Westbrook. Center Steven Adams, a solid defender, is probably the third-best player on the team ahead of scoring big Enes Kanter, who had a minus 3-1 Defensive Box Rating last season. The rest of the roster is filled with role players or unproven commodities.

Certainly, there are plenty of teams that would love to add Westbrook, if the price is right and if he’s willing make some type of long-term commitment. The team that acquires him could also offer an extension, but getting something done would likely hinge on opening up enough extra cap space ($8.8MM) to offer him a max contract.

While the Thunder don’t want to lose a superstar without compensation two summers in a row, they would prefer to keep Westbrook. They would have to convince Westbrook that they’d bring in other quality pieces next summer to regain the status of serious title contender. Blake Griffin, an unrestricted free agent next season, reportedly tops their wish list.

If Westbrook balks at an extension, the Thunder would have to shelve their current plan. They would obviously be in a rebuild mode at that point and could accelerate the process by getting the best package available for Westbrook.

The Celtics have long been rumored to be the logical trade partner for Oklahoma City, given their stash of draft picks and renewed status as a playoff team. The Lakers, trying to find some relevance in the post-Kobe Bryant era, could offer young talent, if not the promise of being a contender. Other teams, such as the Timberwolves, could jump into the fray and make a bold move.

Westbrook’s personality may rub some people the wrong way and some may question his leadership but there’s little doubt he’s worth the money. The 27-year-old is in the prime of his career and a triple-double machine. Two seasons ago when Durant was often sidelined by a foot injury, Westbrook led the NBA in scoring at 28.1 points per game while also averaging 7.3 rebounds and 8.6 assists. With a healthy Durant last season, Westbrook’s scoring average dropped to 23.5 but he averaged career highs in rebounds (7.8) and assists (10.4). His Offensive Box Rating was a league-high 8.0 and he’s also an intense defender. He had a career-best 3.7 Defensive Box Rating last season.

If Westbrook remains with the Thunder this season, it’s conceivable he could average a triple-double, or something close to it. He’ll have to carry a heavy burden, something he wasn’t expecting as Durant entered free agency. He’ll have decide whether it’s worth sticking it out with the weakened Thunder by signing an extension, or chase a ring with another franchise as Durant chose to do.

Photo courtesy of Mark D. Smith (USA Today Sports Images).

Atlantic Notes: Lopez, Landry, Zeller

December 24th, 2015 at 2:14pm CST by Chuck Myron

The emergence of rookie Kristaps Porzingis clouds the future of Knicks offseason signee Robin Lopez, surmises Marc Berman of the New York Post, who earlier reported that the team is thinking about taking Lopez out of the starting five. He’s played 20 minutes or fewer in seven of his last nine games, though he’s shown hints of more efficient play and says he’s beginning to get a handle on the triangle offense, as Berman relays.

“I’m starting to see the opportunities,’’ Lopez said. “I’m starting to see when I’m supposed to look for me — on the block. When I’m supposed look for the pick and roll, where the cuts are going to be. I know it will get better. I’m getting a better idea of what I’m supposed to do offensively.’’

See more on the Knicks and the rest of the Atlantic Division:

The Cavs are in first place in the Eastern Conference with J.R. Smith and a now-healthy Iman Shumpert, but the Knicks have seen strong play from Lance Thomas, and coach Derek Fisher doesn’t regret New York’s participation in last January’s three-way trade with Cleveland and Oklahoma City. Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News has the details. “Seems like both for J.R. and Shump it’s worked out well. They seem happy,” Fisher said Tuesday. “We like our team as it is at this point.”
Sixers offseason trade acquisition Carl Landry, the only player on the team older than 25, made his season debut Wednesday after a wrist injury cost him the first two months of the season, and he’s embracing a leadership role, observes Bob Cooney of the Philadelphia Daily News. The team has been in the market for additional veteran influences of late.
Tyler Zeller was an extension candidate this past summer, but the Celtics were reportedly interested in a deal only if it would come at a discount to them, and that hesitancy seems wise now that the center is averaging only 8.5 minutes a game. Still, the soon-to-be free agent posted a season-high 14 points Monday, and his lack of complaints about fluctuating minutes reveals a value, coach Brad Stevens contends, as A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNBoston.com notes. The Celtics organization is “even more endeared” to Zeller because of the way he’s handled the situation, Stevens said, according to Blakely.

Extension Candidate: Tyler Zeller

September 12th, 2015 at 10:47pm CST by ChrisCrouse

With the No. 17 overall pick in the 2012 draft, the Mavs selected Tyler Zeller out of North Carolina. Within an hour, his rights would be traded to the Cavs for three picks that became Jared Cunningham, Bernard James and Jae Crowder. Cleveland trotted him out on the floor for two uninspiring seasons before trading him to Boston in a cap clearing deal that allowed the team to offer a max contract to LeBron James. Zeller hasn’t exactly made either team regret trading him, although Dallas could use a quality starting center right now due to its lack of exciting options and Cleveland was so in need of an interior presence last season, it hurled two first-round picks at Denver to obtain Timofey Mozgov. In both cases, its unlikely Zeller would have received the playing time and touches necessary to develop during his third season in the league. He would have taken a backseat to Tyson Chandler in Dallas and he wouldn’t have taken on a significant role with James and Kevin Love arriving in Cleveland.

Mar 16, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics forward center Tyler Zeller (44) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at TD Garden. The Boston Celtics won 108-89. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Boston had no such roadblocks to playing time and offensive opportunity and it appears the 25-year-old has found a home. Late last season, Zeller and Marcus Smart were the Celtics least likely to be traded, according to multiple sources who spoke with A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com. Last month, Blakely wrote that the big man had a better chance than fellow 2012 first-rounders Jared Sullinger and Perry Jones III to end up with a contract extension, and sources told Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders that chances are 50-50 that Zeller and the team reach an agreement before the deadline this fall.

Zach Lowe of Grantland speculated the team would be happy with an extension with annual salaries up to $12MM, while estimates from ESPN’s Summer Forecast panel suggested annual salaries of $10.6MM would be the going rate for the center. President of basketball operations Danny Ainge is always hesitant to make long-term investments in order to preserve future cap space, but he should be able to offer Zeller an extension in this ballpark and maintain enough flexibility to be a major player in free agency.

The salary cap is projected to rise to $89MM for the 2016/17 campaign. Boston only has slightly more than $43.5MM on the books after this season, though that figure doesn’t include the team options for Smart, James Young and Kelly Olynyk that are almost certain to be exercised provided the trio are still on the roster. Boston also has the non-guaranteed contracts of Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko, and if the C’s waive them anytime before the end of July 3rd, 2016, they could clear $17MM from their commitments.

The Celtics will have to account for possible new contracts for David Lee and Evan Turner, both of whom will be unrestricted free agents, as well as the possible extensions for Jones and Sullinger. If the Celtics want to remain flexible heading into next offseason, they could sign Zeller to a reasonable extension and take their chances on the other four in free agency.

The big man set career highs in points (10.2) and assists (1.4) per game during his third season in the league. He also had his most efficient season as a pro, shooting 54.9% from the field. One area where he could use some work is his rebounding. He had 9.7 rebounds per 36 minutes, which isn’t terrible, but 76 players had better stats last season. Zeller spends all of his minutes at the five. It’s unlikely that he can spend time at the power forward position, which would allow him to play next to another center and a more proficient rebounder. If he wants to see starter’s minutes, he’ll need to improve in this area.

Zeller isn’t going to be the type of player who changes the franchise. He’s not a dominant defender, but he’s been successful at protecting the paint on occasion. Of course, most 7-footers with some mobility will be able to give you that. He runs the floor well and can be crafty on the offensive end, but he can’t be counted on to get crucial buckets late in games. He has certainly improved since coming into the NBA, although some of his success should be credited to coach Brad Stevens. Stevens’ creative pace-and-space offense and conservative defensive schemes have put Zeller in position to succeed.

Environment matters in the NBA. Paying Draymond Green $82MM makes sense for the Warriors because they have other players in place who allow him play his role and not worry about overextending his game. Green wouldn’t be as effective as a main option for a team like the Lakers or Sixers. The same logic applies to Zeller. In the right situation, its justifiable paying him $10-12MM per year. Paying him that kind of salary is a low risk gamble for the Celtics, as they can provide a good situation for the 25-year-old. Zeller has the potential to be an above-average starting center in the NBA, and if he becomes that, an extension at that price point would become a bargain for the franchise.

Extension Candidate: Evan Fournier

September 7th, 2015 at 8:10pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Tobias Harris failed to come to a rookie scale extension agreement with the Magic last fall. That turned into a windfall for Harris. Heading into restricted free agency, he wound up as Orlando’s third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder last season.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

His strong season made him one of the most attractive small forwards on the market this summer. The Magic locked him up with a four-year, $64MM contract.

Could a similar scenario play out between Evan Fournier and the Magic this season? Fournier has shown plenty of promise in his first three seasons and his playing time has steadily increased. Athletic wing players with a reliable 3-point shot are in high demand and Fournier fits the mold. As a backup, Fournier will not approach Harris’ contract figures but he’s undoubtedly worthy of a significant pay jump from the $2,288,205 he’ll make this season.

Steve Kyler of Basketball insiders recently reported that sources close to the negotiations believe that an extension agreement between the parties could be reached before the end of training camp. The dilemma for Fournier is whether he should agree to a multi-year deal now or take the same path as Harris — increasing his value with a productive season and then cashing in next summer.

As Kyler points out, Fournier might also want to see where he fits in the Magic’s future. He’s stuck behind Victor Oladipo at shooting guard and there’s limited time available at small forward with Harris and lottery pick Mario Hezonja at that spot.

The Nuggets selected Fournier with No. 20 overall pick in the 2012 draft and he made good use of his limited playing time in his first season. He appeared in 38 games and averaged 5.3 points in 11.3 minutes, shooting 49.3% from the field and 40.7% on 3-point attempts.

His role in Denver expanded during his second season and his shooting percentage, predictably, took a hit from the lofty averages he posted as a rookie. He appeared in twice as many games, averaging 8.3 points in 19.8 minutes while shooting 41.9% overall and a still-healthy 37.6% from long range.

The Nuggets decided to bring in a more experienced shooting guard prior to last season, dealing Fournier along with Roy Devyn Marble to the Magic in exchange for Arron Afflalo. The Magic exercised their fourth-year team option on Fournier last October, extending his contract through this season.

The 6’7” Fournier missed 24 games last season, mainly due to a hip injury, but was a rotation player when healthy. He averaged 12.0 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 28.6 minutes. He improved upon his shooting averages from the previous year at 44.0% overall and 37.8% on 3-point tries.

Advanced stats put the Bouna Ndiaye client in the middle of the pack among his peers. He ranked 35th out of 91 shooting guards in ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus rankings last season. His PER of 12.47 was below the league standard of 15.0 but an improvement over the 10.36 rating during his second season.

Fournier’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) rating on Basketball Reference was a minus 0.1 last season, mainly due to defensive shortcomings. He had a 0.2 Offensive Box Plus/Minus rating but a career-worst minus 2.3 Defensive Box Plus/Minus rating.

There remains a significant hole in Fournier’s offensive game. He needs to improve from the 3-16 feet area. Last season, he shot just 25% from 3-10 feet and 21.7% from 10-16 feet. He could also find his teammates more often. His assist percentage was a modest 11.5.

Defensively, he needs even more work. Perhaps new coach Scott Skiles can draw that out of him. Fournier has the quickness and length to be an above-average defender. A coach who emphasizes defense as a prerequisite to playing time may be just what Fournier needs to become a better two-way player.

If Fournier improves on that end of the floor, his overall value will invariably shoot upward. Will Fournier take a chance that he’ll stay on Skiles’ good side and keep his rotation spot? Or will he take the Magic’s best offer before the November 2nd deadline and give himself peace of mind heading into the season? For a young player without a starting role, that’s not an easy decision.

Load More Posts