Extension Candidate Rumors | Hoops Rumors

Extension Candidate: Terrence Jones

September 5th, 2015 at 8:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

May 21, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Houston Rockets forward Terrence Jones (6) dunks to score a basket against the Golden State Warriors during the first half in game two of the Western Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs. at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

How much will it cost to keep Terrence Jones in Houston? Probably more than the Rockets are willing to spend.

Entering his fourth season, Jones is eligible to receive a rookie scale extension through November 2nd, and Grantland’s Zach Lowe speculates that the 23-year-old Kentucky product’s asking price could be as high as $15MM annually. It’s a daunting number — even considering the expected jump in the salary cap next summer — for a player with limited NBA production.

Injuries caused Jones to miss 49 games last season. He sat out 41 with nerve damage in his left foot, then several more after suffering a partially collapsed lung in March. When he did play, he showed flashes of why that $15MM figure might be attainable, averaging 11.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game and making slightly more than 35% of his shots from 3-point range. His numbers dipped slightly in the playoffs, but Jones started 9 of 17 games and averaged 23.6 minutes of playing time for a team that reached the Western Conference Finals.

Offensively, Jones is very much a product of the system in which he plays. The Rockets believe in getting their shots near the basket and beyond the 3-point arc. Over his career, Jones takes about half of his shots from within 3 feet and connects on about 70% from that area, according to Basketball Reference. He has the size and leaping ability to become a better finisher and improve that number as he gets older. He was 13 of 37 from long distance during his abbreviated regular season in 2014/15, although that figure dipped to a dismal 3 of 19 (.158) during the playoffs.

Jones has shown potential as a rebounder, averaging close to 7.0 per game over the past two seasons while playing alongside two of the best rebounding centers in the league in Dwight Howard and Omer Asik. However, there are questions about his defense, which has been exposed in the last two postseasons, particularly by the Clippers’ Blake Griffin and former Trail Blazer LaMarcus Aldridge. ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus Minus ranked Jones 38th in the league last season among power forwards, right behind Spencer Hawes, Luis Scola and Elton Brand.

While Jones seems eventually headed toward a big payday — a 6’9″ athlete who can rebound and stretch the floor is very popular in the NBA right now — it’s not guaranteed that contract will come from Houston and it’s less certain that he’ll get it this summer. Even with a projected salary cap of $89MM for 2016/17, the Rockets aren’t likely to have much money available to dish out. If the team picks up the option on young center Clint Capela, Houston is looking at about $44.5MM in committed salary, not counting Howard, who has a player option worth $23.3MM, or Ty Lawson, whose contract includes more than $13.2MM in non-guaranteed money. In addition, Donatas Motiejunas, another young Rockets power forward with a career similar to Jones’, is also eligible for an extension this summer, as we examined earlier, giving the franchise a difficult decision at that position.

There’s also the possibility that either Jones or Motiejunas could be traded, if not both. The Rockets were rumored to be shopping Jones and the 18th pick in this year’s draft (which became Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker) in order to create cap room to pursue Aldridge or Kevin Love. Houston, which spent the summer stocking up on young forwards, certainly isn’t acting like a team ready to make a long-term commitment to either Jones or Motiejunas. In addition to drafting the 6’7″ Dekker, who has potential as a stretch four, the Rockets used a second-round pick on 6’8″ 236-pound rebounding beast Montrezl Harrell, who projects as a power forward, and gave a three-year, $10MM deal to second-year player K.J. McDaniels. The Rockets have a long track record of maintaining cap flexibility to chase marquee free agents, and could pursue former Harden teammate Kevin Durant or another of the top 2016 free agents.

Jones, a Wasserman Media Group client, could be facing a tough choice of his own. Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders believes that a deal will be available in Houston for Jones, but only if he places long-term security ahead of gambling on his potential worth. As Kyler points out, Rockets GM Daryl Morey has a history of letting players enter restricted free agency and allowing the market to set their values. However, if Jones is willing to settle for a lesser deal, a bargain-conscious Morey might be tempted to sign him this summer. Kyler believes the odds are good that Jones will wind up as a restricted free agent, but with health concerns already cropping up at such a young age, his best option may be to take a long-term deal while he can get it.

Should the Rockets sign Jones to an extension? Share your thoughts in our comments section.

Extension Candidate: Bradley Beal

September 4th, 2015 at 11:14am CST by Chuck Myron

NBA: Playoffs-Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

It was somewhat surprising not to see Bradley Beal‘s name pop up alongside Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard when they agreed to max extensions on the first and second nights of free agency, respectively. After all, J. Michael of CSNMidAtlantic.com reported this past fall that Washington was planning a rookie scale extension for the former No. 3 overall pick, and Ken Berger of CBSSports.com reported in May that the Wizards were committed to paying him the max. Still, talks didn’t begin in earnest until mid-July, and the sides apparently met with conflicting desires.

The Wizards want non-guaranteed salary if they sign Beal for the maximum, while the Mark Bartelstein client would want a player option in any deal for less than the max, Michael reported this summer. Washington can’t sign him to a five-year extension, since the team already did so with John Wall, making him its Designated Player. So a player option would mean Beal could leave after three seasons of the deal, setting him up for unrestricted free agency in 2019, when he’d be 26 and the salary cap would be a projected $102MM, giving him the chance to reap more than he could at the back end of an extension that would start in 2016/17, when the cap is projected to be a relatively paltry $89MM. Max salaries rise and fall with the cap, so the higher the cap, the more Beal could earn. Plus, Beal would qualify for a higher maximum salary tier in 2019, when he’d be a seven-year veteran and thus eligible for a max equivalent to 30% of the cap, rather than the roughly 25% he could get now.

That presents an intriguing compromise if Beal would be willing to come off the max number, but it’s unclear just how much the Wizards would want him to sacrifice in that scenario. If they asked him to sign for no more than the current projection for his max salary of $20.4MM, a hedge against an unexpected rise that the Warriors made with Klay Thompson last fall, Beal could end up having made no financial concession at all if the projection is accurate. If Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld and company want him to commit to a deal closer to the $16MM salaries that Jonas Valanciunas will see in the extension he signed with the Raptors last month, it would be easy to see why the sides haven’t come to an agreement.

Washington’s push for non-guaranteed money apparently stems from a concern over Beal’s history of injuries, though he’s avoided major issues and has missed only 26, 9 and 19 games the last three seasons, respectively. Beal could bet on himself and feel confident about his chances to collect on his full salary. Still, guaranteed contracts are de rigueur with core players, so Bartelstein may well have a desire not to set a precedent in that regard for his other clients.

Casting a shadow on the negotiations is the specter of Kevin Durant‘s free agency next summer. The Wizards certainly won’t be alone among teams seeking the former MVP, but they have a unique geographical advantage of playing in Washington, Durant’s hometown. An associate of Durant’s told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald this summer that if the four-time scoring champ were to leave the Thunder, he would sign with the Wizards. Washington has clearly been preparing should Durant be so inclined, but an extension for Beal would complicate that effort.

The Wizards have nearly $33.5MM in guaranteed salaries for next season, though that doesn’t include a team option of almost $5.9MM on Otto Porter‘s rookie scale contract that Washington will almost certainly pick up. That accounts for four players, and they’d have to carry cap holds for eight more. At minimum, they could strip down to seven roster charges, which are cap holds that represent empty roster spots and are equal to the rookie minimum salary, plus Beal’s cap hold, which would be about $14.2MM if he doesn’t sign an extension.

Thus, barring trades or stretch provision maneuvers, the Wizards would carry no less than about $54.6MM on a projected $89MM cap for 2016/17. That would be enough to sign Durant to a max contract starting at the projected $24.9MM he’d be eligible for as a nine-year veteran next summer, with about $6.7MM in cap room to spare. Give Beal an extension for the max, which entails a projected starting salary of $20.4MM since he’ll be a four-year vet, and the Wizards would have just enough to squeeze in Durant at his max salary, but essentially no breathing room beyond that. Barring a higher than expected cap, Washington wouldn’t even have room to hang on to its first-round pick next year. The Wizards would have Durant, Beal, Wall, Porter Marcin Gortat, Kelly Oubre, whomever they could sign with the room exception and only minimum-salary additions from there. The Wizards would be able to sell Durant on a strong starting five, but they couldn’t promise any depth.

Instead, the Wizards could forgo an extension with Beal and sign him to a new deal next summer, much in the same way the Spurs put off a deal with Kawhi Leonard last fall to help clear cap space for their successful pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge this year. The Wizards could spend freely while Beal’s cap hold stays at that $11.4MM figure, wooing Durant and supporting talent, and use Beal’s Bird rights to finally re-sign him once they’re finished scouring the market. Of course, such a strategy would require Beal’s cooperation, but the Wizards would have the ability to match offer from other teams, since he’d be a restricted free agent, and the July Moratorium buys Washington some time to negotiate with Durant and others before Beal could sign an offer sheet. The Wizards would have three days to match even if he signed an offer sheet the moment the moratorium ended, giving them plenty of time.

Beal is no doubt a sterling talent. His scoring average dipped this past season in part because he took fewer shots than the season before, but his shooting percentages, from behind the three-point line and from the floor as whole, improved. He was the ninth-most accurate three-point shooter in the league in 2014/15. His defense was so-so, as he was essentially break-even in Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus Minus and the 18th-best shooting guard in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus Minus. Still, at only 22 and already an elite floor-stretcher, he offers enticing value.

It’s merely the context that should prevent the sides from reaching a deal this year. The Wizards have incentive to let this fall’s deadline pass because of Durant and all the other avenues they can pursue in free agency next July. They must be careful not to poison their relationship with Beal if they present too many reasons for not signing him, so it’s somewhat curious to see them bring up the notion of non-guaranteed money. Ultimately, the main reason for the team not to sign Beal is timing, and if Washington makes that clear to him and to Bartelstein, chances seem better that the sides will continue a fruitful partnership for years to come.

Do you think the Wizards should sign Beal to an extension, and if so, what sort of deal should they give him? Leave a comment to tell us.

Extension Candidate: Festus Ezeli

September 1st, 2015 at 10:30am CST by Chuck Myron

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Usually, players who sign rookie scale extensions have averaged more than five points per game at least once in their first three NBA seasons. That’s not the case for Festus Ezeli, but the Warriors apparently want to buck the trend. It’s possible that it’s a simple case of buying low, since Ezeli clearly hasn’t shown the bona fides usually required for a team to make a long-term commitment but will ostensibly have a chance to do so this season. The repeated signals from Warriors GM Bob Myers that the team is willing to do an extension are also perhaps yet another manifestation of a drastically rising salary cap, since teams will have an unprecedented capacity to spend. Golden State just won its first championship in 40 years, and beyond the positive vibes from that accomplishment is the wisdom in using the cap boom to keep a title-winning team together.

Golden State appears ready to test that wisdom to its extreme. Of course, that depends on just how much the Warriors would be on board with giving the former 30th overall pick. If, say, they want to do an unusually cheap rookie scale extension and sign him for around the value of the mid-level, the shock factor wouldn’t be nearly as profound. Indeed, the Warriors would extend his contract for the right price, as Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders wrote this week, though Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group later speculated that market price for Ezeli would be $9-11MM a year.

Ezeli’s chronic failure to corral passes from teammates has helped deflate his offensive numbers, but he’s improved his hands, as Monte Poole of CSNBayArea.com noted. Indeed, he got off nearly twice as many shots per 36 minutes this past season as he did in 2012/13, his rookie year. He also converted them at a much higher rate, lifting his field goal percentage from 43.8% to 54.7%. He upped his PER from a dismal 9.3 to an above-average 16.2, showing increased efficiency, and he posted impressive averages of 11.1 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per 36 minutes last season.

All of that is encouraging, but the sample size is small. Ezeli played only 504 total minutes last season, an average of 11.0 per game across his 46 appearances. Part of that had to do with the depth of the title-winning Warriors, who had Andrew Bogut and Marreese Speights, with David Lee and even Draymond Green capable of playing small ball center at times. Lee is the only one no longer on the roster, and Bogut, the starter, is signed through 2016/17. Still, the former No. 1 overall pick turns 31 this November and has a history of injuries, so chances are he’ll fade away long before Green, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes do. Golden State will eventually need a center who can complement its young core.

Bogut has appeared in more regular season games during the three years of Ezeli’s career than Ezeli has. The 6’11” 25-year-old from Nigeria had surgery in June 2013 to reinforce the MCL and PCL in his right knee after he sprained the knee in the playoffs that spring. He missed all of the 2013/14 season, and a sprained left ankle kept him on the inactive list for more than a month this past season. The ankle injury was poorly timed, since he’d just come off a string of seven consecutive starts in place of Bogut. Ezeli didn’t make any more starts last season, but he did eventually return to the rotation, and he appeared in every playoff game but one.

Starting isn’t altogether unfamiliar for Ezeli, who was on the floor for the tip of 41 regular season games and three playoff games as a rookie. That was the year Golden State made its first postseason appearance with its current group. Bogut’s defense has proven key to the team’s success the past few years. Ezeli is also plus defender, according to Basketball-Reference’s Defensive Box Plus Minus, though that’s not surprising for a center. He’s the 40th-best center in ESPN’s Real Plus Minus, fairly impressive for someone who saw only 11.0 minutes a night, finishing right behind vaunted defensive talent Gorgui Dieng in that metric. The Warriors were about as efficient defensively with Ezeli on the floor as they were without him this past season, as NBA.com shows. However, they scored a whopping 6.5 points more per 100 possessions when Ezeli sat, a number that reflects the drop-off from Golden State’s starters to its bench but nonetheless speaks to Ezeli’s offensive shortcomings.

An extension with salaries in the eight-figure range would signal that the Warriors believe in Ezeli as the successor to Bogut in the role of starting center. Convince him to sign for somewhat less, and he’ll shape up as a well-compensated reserve. Kosta Koufos paced the free agent the market for backup centers this summer with a deal from the Kings that will give him an average of a little more than $8MM each season. Ed Davis and Aron Baynes, two reserve centers with upside, each wound up with about $6.5MM in average annual value.

The escalation in the cap plays a role, but it would be surprising to see the Warriors pay more than what their Northern California neighbors shelled out to Koufos if they project Ezeli as a backup for the long haul. Perhaps a four-year deal that starts at Koufos-level money of around $8MM a year and goes up to a salary of around $10MM for the last couple of seasons makes the most sense. He would be paid like a premier backup at the beginning of the extension and like a fifth starter at the end of it, and if the Warriors are reasonably optimistic about his potential, that’s probably how they view him.

Do you think Ezeli deserves an extension, and if so, how much should he get? Leave a comment to tell us.

Extension Candidate: Dion Waiters

August 31st, 2015 at 8:20pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The top three picks of the 2012 draft have already established themselves as top-level talents during their first three seasons.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Top pick Anthony Davis quickly emerged one of the league’s crown jewels, a budding superstar who agreed to a max entension with the Pelicans at the eve of free agency this summer. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has become the Hornets’ defensive linchpin, and the two parties agreed on a four-year, $52MM extension this summer. Bradley Beal and the Wizards have not come to terms on a extension, but he’s one of the most feared shooters in the league and should eventually receive a contract at or near the max.

The No. 4 pick of that draft, Dion Waiters, finds himself in an entirely different situation after three disappointing seasons to start his NBA career. The Cavaliers thought they had their backcourt for the next decade when they drafted Waiters to pair up with Kyrie Irving. Instead, the duo reportedly failed to click on a personal level and never developed the on-court chemistry that the franchise had envisioned. Cleveland shipped Waiters to the Thunder during last season, offering the 6’4” shooting guard a fresh start.

While Waiters appeared to be more content with his new surroundings, it didn’t translate to on-court success. He averaged 10.5 points in 23.8 minutes while shooting 40.4% from the field and 25.6% from 3-point range prior to the deal last season. With the Thunder, he averaged 12.7 points in 30.3 minutes while shooting 39.2% overall and 31.9% from long range. He regressed from his second year averages of 15.0 PPG, 43.3% overall shooting and 36.8% on threes. His ESPN Hollinger PER rating of 10.93 last season was well below the league standard of 15.0 and 59th among shooting guards.

Other advanced metrics show how much work Waiters must do to improve his game. He ranked 85th out of 91 in ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus rating for shooting guards last season. Waiters’ VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) rating calculated by Basketball Reference was a minus 0.9, compared to minus 0.5 in his rookie season and 0.0 in his second year. His Offensive Box Plus/Minus Rating has been below zero in each of his seasons, including a career-worst minus 2.1 last season. His Defensive Box Plus/Minus Rating was a minus 1.5, though that was actually an improvement over his first two seasons.

Waiters can carve out a niche as a volume scorer but he has to be more efficient and take better shots. His midrange game certainly needs some work. He’s taken just 16.2% of his shots from 3-16 feet during his first three seasons, making just 29.4% from 3-10 feet and 41.3% from 10-16 feet. His 3-point shooting needs to at least return to the form he showed in 2013/14.

He also needs to create more for his teammates. He had 3.0 assists per game in that 2013/14 season, but that dropped to 2.0 last season.

Despite those statistical drawbacks, Waiters has gained a measure of respect from the Thunder organization. They are reportedly willing to give him a rookie scale extension before the November 2nd deadline if he’s willing to offer them a discount. For his part, Waiters has expressed excitement over the hiring of Billy Donovan as head coach and the veteran staff Donovan brought in. Waiters, who will make $5,138,430 this season, believes the new staff will help him expand his game.

Waiters should have a prominent role with the Thunder this season, though it remains to be seen how he’ll mesh with a healthy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Waiters bristled in Cleveland over his catch-and-shoot role, but he’d have a similar role if he’s in the starting lineup with two of the league’s most dynamic scorers. He’d probably be more comfortable as a sixth man with only one of them off the court, which would afford him more scoring opportunities.

If Waiters doesn’t accept the discount, he may opt to gamble on having a strong season and then become a restricted free agent next summer. With the salary cap spiking upward, he could get a multiyear offer sheet from an offensively challenged club and gain long-term security, whether or not the Thunder decide to match. It’s an interesting choice, or perhaps dilemma, for a player who has not come close to living up his draft status.

Extension Candidate: Festus Ezeli

August 30th, 2015 at 8:59am CST by Chuck Myron