Extension Candidate

Extension Candidate: Jimmy Butler

August 25th, 2014 at 10:34am CST by Chuck Myron

The Bulls scored a major coup when they drafted Jimmy Butler 30th overall in 2011. A team that compiled the best record in the league in the previous season, as the Bulls did, isn’t supposed to be able to find a starting-caliber player in the draft. That’s exactly what Chicago has, and then some, in Butler, who became a full-time starter just last season but had already established himself as a future building block the year before, when he started 20 regular season games and all 12 playoff games for an ailing Luol Deng. Now the task for GM Gar Forman and his staff is to keep that building block in place and ensure the embodiment of that draft-night success from three years ago doesn’t turn into either an overpaid burden for Chicago or, perhaps even worse, a former Bull.

A report from last autumn indicated that the Bulls were higher on retaining Butler for the long term than they were on Deng, and that was born out when the team traded Deng to the Cavs at midseason. Chicago isn’t alone in its affection for the 24-year-old Butler, as there was reportedly wide belief that the Wolves would ask for Butler as part of Kevin Love trade talks with the Bulls. Love appears safely on his way to the Cavs, but there’s little doubt that other teams would relish the chance to snatch Butler away.

Butler endured a tough shooting season on a Bulls team that struggled mightily to score once Derrick Rose went down with yet another injury. The subtraction of Deng didn’t help matters, either, allowing perimeter defenses to focus more keenly on stopping Butler, Chicago’s remaining wing threat. Butler’s three-point shooting percentage dropped from 38.1% in 2012/13 to 28.3% last year, even as he nearly tripled his number of attempted treys per contest. His shooting percentage from the floor as a whole dropped from 46.7% to 39.7%, reflective of his greater focus on three-pointers.

The Bulls asked Butler to do much more this past season than he’d ever done in the league, and his efficiency dropped as a result, with his PER sinking from 15.2 in his second season to 13.5 in year three. Still, it would have been difficult for just about any player to have been effective offensively on last year’s Bulls, one of just four teams in the league to score fewer than a point per possession in 2013/14, according to NBA.com. Butler isn’t capable of single-handedly carrying a scoring attack, at least not yet, but he’s defined himself as a key part of one of the most well-coordinated defenses in league history. The Bulls gave up 1.5 points fewer points per 100 possessions when Butler played, as NBA.com shows, and while Butler alone didn’t influence that statistic, Chicago has been at least slightly better defensively when he’s played in each of his three seasons with the club.

The Bulls were also more effective defensively with Taj Gibson on the floor in each of his first three seasons in the league, which was no doubt on the minds of Forman and company when they reached a deal with Gibson on a four-year, $33MM rookie scale extension two years ago. It stands as an example of the team’s willingness to lock up a player who’s a mainstay but not quite a star, a description that also fits Butler, but there are differences between the two cases. Gibson came off the bench at a position that the highly paid Carlos Boozer occupied, while Butler is a starter on the wing, where the Bulls are thin. Butler is also a more integral part of Chicago’s offense than Gibson had been when he signed his extension. Those factors combined with rising salary cap projections for years to come make it unlikely that Butler will settle for salaries anywhere in the neighborhood of what Gibson is making.

It appears as though Chicago would like to keep Butler around, as I surmised last month when I predicted that the Bulls and the Happy Walters client would come to terms on a four-year, $42MM extension. That’s $9MM more than Gibson saw, but there’d still be a decent chance that it would end up a relative bargain for the Bulls, particularly if the deal is backloaded. Chicago already has about $58.6MM in commitments for 2015/16 and $43.8MM for 2015/16, so creating enough wiggle room as possible beneath the tax threshold will be important as the team attempts to contend in the next few years.

There’s a case to be made that the Bulls should hold off on an extension to see whether Butler’s offensive efficiency improves with Rose back in the lineup. Butler and Rose have only shared the floor for 273 total minutes over their careers, so surely Chicago is curious to see how they mesh in more significant time together. That question mark shouldn’t dissuade the Bulls from committing to a reasonable extension this offseason, lest Butler’s negotiating power increase commensurate with his continually expanding role on the team. Restricted free agency proved more kind this year to Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons, a pair of wing players on the market’s second tier, than it has for point guard Eric Bledsoe and big man Greg Monroe, seemingly more attractive options. That would bode well for Butler, even though there are few certainties in restricted free agency, as this summer’s surprises have shown.

It’s quite a risk in today’s NBA for a team to commit an average of more than $10MM a year to a swingman who’s just a 30.9% three-point shooter, but for the Bulls, it appears worth it to do so with Butler. Chicago’s primary focus is on defense, anyway, where Butler has proven valuable, and Gibson’s blossoming offensive game is evidence that coach Tom Thibodeau and his staff are adept at continually developing players well into their careers. Butler needs to improve for the Bulls to have reaped a bargain with such an investment, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he’ll do just that.

Extension Candidate: Kawhi Leonard

August 20th, 2014 at 1:57pm CST by Chuck Myron

The accolades bestowed upon Kawhi Leonard are well-deserved, but there’s no doubting that he’s a beneficiary of impeccable timing. He scored at least 20 points in each of the last three games of the NBA Finals, leading voters to tab him as Finals MVP. That was the first time in Leonard’s three-year NBA career that he had strung together that many 20-plus-point games, and only the second time he’d ever so much as scored that many points in back-to-back games. Part of the reason for that no doubt has to do with the Spurs’ ball-sharing offense and coach Gregg Popovich‘s penchant for strictly limiting the minutes his starters play. Yet It also speaks to the notion that even though Popovich believes Leonard will be the team’s marquee figure some day, that day has yet to come.

Of course, teams base their decisions about whether to hand out extensions based on what they think will happen in the years ahead, and less so because of what’s happened in the past. Popovich, who shares front office duties with GM R.C. Buford, has made it known that he envisions a bright future for the 23-year-old, subtly tipping his hand in a manner that’s atypical for the taciturn Spurs franchise. Of course, Popovich never said just when he thinks Leonard’s time will come, or just how much the Spurs are willing to invest to ensure that when it comes, it comes to San Antonio.

Still, Leonard is confident that agent Brian Elfus and the Spurs will work out an extension by the October 31st deadline, allowing him to avoid restricted free agency next summer. Leonard is in so many ways the quintessential Spur. He’s goes to such great lengths to avoid the spotlight that his reserved demeanor stands out even on a team that’s almost universally reflected the modesty of Tim Duncan for the past 17 years, and teammates are fond of kidding Leonard about his shy streak. Leonard is also a homegrown talent, having only briefly passed through the hands of the Pacers on draft night before the trade that brought him to San Antonio. He’s never played for any other NBA team, just like Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, from whom he is supposed to inherit the mantle of Spurs stardom.

Leonard is a strong three-point shooter and rebounder, two areas that the Spurs pride themselves upon. His three-point percentages haven’t strayed from a range that starts at 37.4% and ends at last season’s mark of 37.9%, which is telling of the sort of yearly consistency that the Spurs also thrive upon. He grabbed the eighth-most rebounds per 100 possessions last season among all players 6’7″ or shorter, according to Basketball-Reference, and his 19.4 PER from this past year was better than all seven of the players in front of him on that list.

The former 15th overall pick is improving, having shot 52.2% from the floor last season after back-to-back sub-50% seasons his first two years. The Spurs gave up nearly 4.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when Leonard was on the floor last season compared to when he wasn’t, as NBA.com shows, while the Spurs defense was worse by 2.6 points per 100 possessions when Leonard was on the court as a rookie. Still, there are doubts about whether he can carry a team, as is the case with just about every player who’s never averaged at least 10 field goal attempts per game, or as many as 13 points per contest.

Inevitable change is coming to the Spurs. Duncan is 38 and Ginobili is 37. Their contracts expire after the coming season, and there’s a decent chance that this will be the last for both of them. Parker is 32, but it remains to be seen whether he can continue to produce at a high level into his late 30s as Duncan and Ginobili have, even amid San Antonio’s best efforts to preserve his body. The Spurs roster is deep, stocked with quite possibly the best collection of role players the league has seen in quite some time. Still, Leonard is the only Spur under the age of 30 who appears capable of playing like a star some day, barring the development of yet another surprise from the latter stages of the draft, like Parker and Ginobili.

Spurs players have long sacrificed for the benefit of the team, with Parker’s extension from earlier this month the latest example. It would fit with Leonard’s personality for him to follow suit, but doing so would break with the practice that others in his position have employed. Klay Thompson and Ricky Rubio have reportedly asked for the max this summer, and the Cavs wasted no time in doling out a max extension to Kyrie Irving in July. It would not be altogether surprising if Elfus were to start negotiations at the same price point.

The Spurs can probably afford to pay Leonard the max more so than they can stomach parting with him, especially since the 25% max for which Leonard is in line is much less than what the max for a veteran star would entail. Of course, San Antonio won’t lose Leonard anytime soon as long as they’re willing to pay him the max, either through extension or restricted free agency, and as long as Leonard doesn’t take the drastic step of accepting his qualifying offer next summer, which would be a shock.

There are no guarantees in restricted free agency, as this summer has proven. Greg Monroe and Eric Bledsoe are staring discount deals in the face while Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons, probably less desirable players, wound up with a max deal and a three-year contract for just under the max, respectively. I predicted last month that Leonard would end up signing an extension for four years and $50MM. If the Spurs propose those terms, an improvement on what the Suns reportedly have on the table for Bledsoe, it wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest that it’s the best offer that Leonard will see. It might not be quite the financial reward that passed through his mind when he clutched the Finals MVP trophy, but it would afford him stability within an organization he personifies. That seems like the sort of reward that Leonard would seek most fervently.

Extension Candidate: Reggie Jackson

August 16th, 2014 at 10:35pm CST by Cray Allred

Thunder fans are experiencing some déjà vu. A guard entering his fourth year with the team, proven as an effective backup and a capable starter, is due for rookie contract extension talks. The player shined in the postseason, helping guide Oklahoma City deep into the playoffs, and is seeking an increased role with the team next season. No, we’re not talking about James Harden; the spotlight is now on Reggie Jackson. At 23, Jackson is a year older than Harden was when the Thunder made a stunning move to trade the bearded star rather than meet his max contract demands. Like Harden, he is a ball-dominant player with a knack for getting to the rim.

While the similarities are notable, there are significant differences that make this situation distinct from the 2012 offseason. Jackson does not have the elite foul-drawing ability or scoring efficiency that Harden has always possessed, and his asking price will presumably be lower. Still, he had per-36 averages of 16.6 points, 5.2 assists, and 4.9 rebounds while fluctuating between a starter and sixth man as Russell Westbrook missed large chunks of the season. His three-point shot was putrid in his first two seasons (below 24% in both) but improved last year, coming close to average (33.9%).

Jackson brings little to the defensive side of the floor, but the Thunder coaching staff has turned players with similar length and speed into solid defenders before. Jackson is a standout free-throw shooter in his own right, and he knocked down a number of clutch freebies in close games last season. Jackson also exploded for a 32-point effort in Game 4 against a stifling Grizzlies defense in the first round of the playoffs, keeping the Thunder from going down 1-3 in and facing a disappointing first-round exit. Jackson’s desire to start has been on the table as a contract consideration since late 2013.

Thus far, GM Sam Presti has played it close to the vest regarding Jackson. When the season closed, Presti said there was no consideration of trading Jackson, but the GM wasn’t optimistic that an extension would be worked out by the October 31st deadline. Jackson’s camp has been quiet as well, with no reports of where either side pegs his value. Two point guards in Phoenix might be instructive in looking at Jackson’s potential market. Isaiah Thomas is a scoring machine who took off in his third year as a pro, fighting his way off the bench in a crowded Sacramento backcourt. He was rewarded with a four-year, $27MM contract this summer. Eric Bledsoe exploded as a starter in his first year with the Suns, but health concerns and Phoenix’s vow to match any offer sheet have kept him from generating anything near the max contract he wants. The Suns’ offer to Bledsoe currently sits at four years and $48MM. My estimation is that Thomas’ lower ceiling, limited more than Jackson’s due to size and age, means his deal is near the low end of what Jackson could secure. Bledsoe’s offer seems to be a price ceiling for Jackson. Again, this is all just my speculation, but I would expect Jackson to fetch between $7MM and $10MM annually.

Aside from Jackson’s value as a player, the Thunder’s financial outlook is different this time around as well. Presti held firm to a near-max offer for Harden because the team wanted to avoid incurring harsh repeater-tax penalties that a true max offer might have triggered. NBA revenue has since boomed, driving the salary cap — and tax threshold — up significantly. In fact, Zach Lowe of Grantland wonders whether the Thunder would have increased their offer to Harden if they had projected as rosy a cap future as the league arrived at. If the Thunder pick up the 2015/16 options for Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III, Andre Roberson, and Steven Adams, they will still have at least $10MM in room beneath the tax for that season, and they could conceivably have plenty more room than that if league revenue keeps shooting up.

Of course, the Thunder also have to think beyond that season, as they seek to keep Kevin Durant, Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka around while the rest of the league prepares to snag them away. Locking in Jackson as a significant part of the team’s core would prevent them from adding much in the way of impact players through free agency next year. The early signals are that Oklahoma City is comfortable counting on the young supporting cast that Jackson anchors, built around their established core. The team saw the departures of veterans Thabo Sefolosha, Derek Fisher, and Caron Butler this summer, and have only added Anthony Morrow in free agency.

Outside of Kendrick Perkins‘ contract, the Thunder haven’t overpaid on any long-term contracts, and their resolve in that aspect was proven with the Harden situation. I can’t imagine they would offer Jackson anything they thought was at or above market value; the team believes in its philosophy, and Presti and company would likely feel confident in their ability to influence his restricted free agency in their favor like Phoenix has managed to do with Bledsoe.

Still, Jackson is the most developed of an athletic stable of young players that the Thunder need to support their star trio in chasing a title the next two seasons. My guess is the decision will come down to whether the team envisions Jackson as a good fit next to Westbrook in the starting lineup. The starting shooting guard has yet to be named, with Jackson, Lamb, Morrow, and Roberson all on the table for the spot. If they determine Jackson’s the man for the job, I see the two sides reaching an agreement for an extension this fall. If not, I’ll go with Chuck Myron’s prediction from the Hoops Rumors Rookie Extension Primer: no deal.

Extension Candidate Series

August 13th, 2014 at 1:21pm CST by Chuck Myron

Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe have yet to sign, and the Kevin Love trade agreement will remain unofficial for another 10 days or so, but the first part of the NBA’s offseason has largely come to a close. The main feature of the back end of the offseason involves players signing extensions, with rookie scale extensions chief among them. I took a look at the rookie scale extension market as a whole last month, and I also listed those eligible for veteran extensions. We’ll be taking focused, in-depth looks at some of the most intriguing candidates on each list as part of our Extension Candidate series in the months to come.

This list of our Extension Candidate posts can be found at any time under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar. We’ll continue to update it as we examine more players who might be in line for long-term commitments to their current teams in the near future. Here are the extension candidates we’ve previewed so far, in alphabetical order:

Extension Candidate: Ricky Rubio

August 12th, 2014 at 8:29pm CST by Charlie Adams

Former Timberwolves GM David Kahn chose not to offer Kevin Love a five-year extension for the maximum salary in 2012, thereby leaving the team’s Designated Player title unused, presumably so the team could bestow it upon Ricky Rubio. The decision drew heavy criticism and caused tension between Love and the front office, but management figured it would all be kosher if Rubio could develop into the superstar that Kahn envisioned. Unfortunately for Timberwolves fans, the now-dismissed Kahn’s decision backfired, as Minnesota is set to trade away the disgruntled Love, and whether or not Rubio has the track record to warrant a maximum deal likely worth more than $84MM remains highly questionable.

Rubio, the former fifth-overall pick, tore his ACL late in his rookie campaign, resulting in missed time over the course of his first two seasons. The Spanish point guard has been playing pro basketball since he was 14 years old but has only experienced one full season in the NBA. In spite of a relative lack of NBA minutes, Dan Fegan, Rubio’s agent, is still seeking the Designated Player title for his client. It might seem like a stretch, but Rubio has proven himself to be a more than capable contributor when healthy. He fills up highlight reels with his extraordinary passes, and his knack for finding the open man is reflected in his nightly average of 8.1 assists against just 2.7 turnovers. It’s rare to hear any knocks on Rubio’s killer playmaking instincts, and at just 23 years old, he’s still got even more room to grow.

Rubio’s been more than just a playmaker, however, as he’s been top-notch on the other side of the ball, too. Many European players struggle to defend in the NBA, but Rubio has led the league in steal percentage each of the last two seasons. Having a point guard who can play excellent defense is especially critical in today’s NBA, where almost all of the top teams carry a floor general who can score from all over the court. Again, Rubio should continue to refine his lockdown defensive skills as he matures.

The most frequent dig at Rubio’s game is his notoriously awful jump shot. A career 36.8% shooter, he’s just 427 field goal attempts away from being statistically qualified to have the lowest field goal percentage since the ABA-NBA merger. His awful shooting has kept him from scoring more than 10.7 points per contest in any of his three seasons, leaving some to wonder if he can truly develop the superstar skills that a max contract would imply. While Rubio’s mechanics certainly aren’t pretty, it’s a bit perplexing that his field goal percentage could fall so low, given that he’s proven he can drop buckets in from behind the charity stripe with ease, posting a 80.1% free throw percentage over his career. Perhaps his aptitude for hitting free throws means he has the potential to develop a respectable stroke from the floor, but teams generally want to see more than just potential before they fork over packages in excess of $84MM.

Minnesota is open to giving Rubio a deal similar to the four-year, $44MM pact that Stephen Curry signed in 2012, but his agent’s desire for max money has the potential to keep the two sides from agreeing to any sort of extension. Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors predicted that there wouldn’t be a compromise between the Wolves and Rubio’s camp and that the Spanish point guard will probably hit restricted free agency next summer as a result. The 2015 free agent market is currently set to feature Rajon Rondo and Goran Dragic, but beyond that, no real impact point guards. The dearth of big name floor generals means a team that misses out on either of the aforementioned could be willing to float serious cash to Rubio in an attempt to make a splash signing, which would leave Minnesota with a tough decision on whether or not to match the offer. Of course, this all assumes the Wolves and Rubio won’t be able to reach an agreement, so it might be too early to start concocting such scenarios.

The path of restricted free agency actually might not be so bad for either side, however. It gives the Wolves another season to determine whether Rubio’s game is progressing enough to warrant a max contract, and it allows Rubio the chance to open up a bidding war between the Wolves and any rival suitors. However, the latter case is easier said than done, as we’ve seen so far this summer with Eric Bledsoe. Teams are often shy about temporarily tying up cap space by making players big offers that might eventually be matched.

Given that the Wolves are set to roster Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine, both lottery picks from this year, it might be premature to give Rubio the five-year, maximum extension. Signing Rubio to a five-year extension would prevent the team from doing so with either Wiggins or LaVine, and it’d be tough to sell fans on such a large investment in Rubio, especially given that the Wolves have yet to appear in the playoffs during his time heading the point. It’d be certainly unfair to solely blame Rubio for the club’s consistent lack of success, but handing over the Designated Player title to Rubio while the team features so much young talent might be seen as a mistake.

Handling the Love debacle is definitely the biggest issue Flip Saunders has been faced with during has time as Wolves president of basketball operations, but determining the best course of action for Rubio’s future with the team is probably the next most crucial on the list. Refusing to pay for a guy who’s a triple-double threat every night could come back to bite Minnesota, especially if Rubio improves his shooting as he ages. On the other hand, dumping that sort of money into a guy who’s yet to fully demonstrate his superstar potential could be a recipe for even more mediocrity for the Wolves. Whatever Saunders and company decide to do, it will greatly affect the future of the team going forward.

Extension Candidate: Tristan Thompson

August 9th, 2014 at 8:37pm CST by Cray Allred

Perhaps more than any other rookie scale extension candidate, Tristan Thompson‘s fate with the Cavaliers could be decided by variables outside of his play. Both the return of LeBron James and the pending acquisition of Kevin Love should factor heavily into Cleveland’s decision to either extend the power forward or let him hit restricted free agency next summer.

On the court, Thompson has been a solid but unspectacular player, posting career averages of 11.7 PPG and 9.2 RPG in three seasons since being selected No. 4 by the Cavs in the 2011 draft. His production has been very steady in those years, without major spikes in hardly any category. The most significant changes have come in his blocks (down from 1.6 per-36 as a rookie to just 0.5 per-36 last season) and free throw proficiency. Thompson switched shooting hands in 2013/14, a rare shift for a professional to pull off. His free throw shooting benefited, jumping to a respectable .693, but his percentage from the floor dropped. His career slash line is .474/.000/.630.

Averaging a near double-double in the NBA is no small feat, but of the 19 players that scored over 10 points and collected at least 9 rebounds per game in 2013/14, Thompson ranked near the bottom in win shares (16th), PER (19th), effective field goal percentage (16th), and defensive rating (17th). Defense is a particularly concerning area for Thompson, as he gave up a generous 59.1% while defending the rim last year.

Three frontcourt players from Thompson’s draft class received extensions prior to this summer, and the production and/or potential for DeMarcus Cousins, Larry Sanders, and Derrick Favors earned each annual salaries of at least $11MM in those deals. Sanders was on the low-end of those extensions, inking it after a 2012/13 season in which his per-36 numbers were significantly better than Thompson’s were this year. Sanders is also an athletic phenom in an altogether different class than Thompson, who is reportedly looking for salary in the $10MM range for an extension.

In a vacuum, Thompson’s market value would make it debatable he would even get an extension, let alone something in the ballpark of some of the league’s young post players with higher upside. Our own Chuck Myron predicted that Thompson will end up with no extension by the deadline in the Hoops Rumors Rookie Extension Primer, and how other teams would value Thompson as a free agent is unknown. The Warriors did see Thompson as a potential trade piece for a deal involving Harrison Barnes, although those were very preliminary rumblings that wouldn’t necessarily indicate a one-to-one valuation of the players, or any long-term salary considerations.

Thompson’s game doesn’t compare favorably to some fellow extension candidates that Chuck deemed long shots to receive a deal from their respective teams: Enes Kanter is a more effective low-post scorer; Markieff Morris a better all-around offensive force; and Bismack Biyombo a much more intimidating interior presence. Thompson’s agent might argue that it’s more relevant to compare his counting stats to those of Kenneth Faried, whose per-game averages aren’t significantly greater than Thompsons, but Faried was much more efficient, contributing similar numbers in fewer minutes per game. And again, Faried’s athletic prowess dwarfs that of Thompson.

With Love’s arrival, Cleveland has no shortage of offensive firepower, nor will they lack for rebounding ability with one of the game’s premier rebounding talents suiting up in wine and gold. Thompson’s moderate production in those categories is redundant to Love’s, to say the least. The Cavs’ biggest uncertainty is defense, especially after giving up Andrew Wiggins in the Love deal as expected. While LeBron is capable of playing elite defense and guarding every position on the court, center Anderson Varejao is a constant health risk, and if Love is capable of providing average interior defense, he hasn’t shown it in his time with Minnesota. New coach David Blatt is known as an offensive whiz, but whether his transition from Euroleague to the NBA will include effective defensive schematics remains to be seen.

So the presence of Love would appear to weigh heavily against Cleveland’s decision to invest in Thompson, as he is a superfluous cog on offense and a below-average defender on a team with major defensive concerns. However, Love’s arrival also speaks to one factor in Thompson’s favor: the influence of LeBron. James is said to have been instrumental in working between Love and Cleveland’s front office leading up to the trade, and he shares an agent with Thompson in Rich Paul.

Before LeBron’s return, Thompson was a trade candidate. As we noted prior to James’ return, the four-time MVP’s arrival would give Thompson leverage in seeking an extension. Sure enough, Thompson’s name was absent from trade rumblings involving Love following LeBron’s return, despite being a young, frontcourt talent whom the team was open to dealing in prior months. In an appearance on the B.S. Report podcast, Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com speculated that the Cavs will “probably” give Thompson an extension above his market value because of his shared representation with James. He suggests it will have been a “wink-wink” investment that would have been informally agreed upon to go along with LeBron’s signing in Cleveland. Such an agreement would be illegal under the CBA, but this wouldn’t be the first case of a convenient side-deal. Last summer, John Wall‘s agency negotiated a surprisingly lucrative four-year contract for teammate Martell Webster just before wrapping up a max extension for Wall in Washington.

If Thompson does receive an extension, it could be an indicator of just how influential LeBron’s management team is for the Cavs. While James isn’t expected to leave Cleveland anytime soon, his two-year deal, which includes a player option next season, gives him continued leverage with the organization. If James wields far-reaching power in Cleveland, it wouldn’t be the first case of a superstar doing as much. Phil Jackson‘s recent hiring as Knicks president ended an era in New York in which Creative Artists Agency, representing Carmelo Anthony, had its tentacles throughout the franchise, even getting J.R. Smith‘s brother an eyebrow-raising contract last season.

With plans of keeping James, Kyrie Irving, and Love for the long term, a multiyear commitment to Thompson would be a huge gamble. That All-Star trio is already slated to take up around $60MM in cap space in the coming years, and the team also faces a decision on whether to extend Dion Waiters to a rookie scale extension by next fall. On paper, the wise choice seems to be straightforward: don’t tie up most of your remaining long-term money to a player that doesn’t project to bolster your title hopes. Even if James’ camp exerts pressure on the Cavs to extend Thompson, Cleveland brass would do well to remember that the Heat just lost James in part due to cap limitations that prevented them from improving around the world’s best player, and he walked away as their championship window appeared to be closing.

Extension Candidate: Klay Thompson

August 1st, 2014 at 3:27pm CST by Chuck Myron

Klay Thompson was among several players eligible for rookie scale extensions whom I examined earlier this week, and in the weeks ahead we’ll take in-depth looks at some of them as part of our Extension Candidate Series. Thompson is also a trade candidate of sorts, but it increasingly seems as though the Warriors have no intention of parting with their sharpshooting two-guard, even if doing so would mean netting Kevin Love in return.

Co-owner Joe Lacob made it plain this spring that he’s a fan of Thompson’s, declaring in a radio appearance on 95.7 The Game in the Bay Area that the team would reach a deal with him one way or another. “We are going to re-sign Klay Thompson,” Lacob said. “I will say that unequivocally.” Lacob didn’t specify whether that would happen via extension this year or restricted free agency next summer, but it nonetheless established the organization’s commitment. Not surprisingly, agent Bill Duffy is seeking the max, as could be expected when a team owner publicly vows to come to terms. Duffy has the leverage necessary to test Lacob’s willingness to either acquiesce to shelling out the max or go back on his public statements if Thompson and Duffy pass on signing an extension and find a max offer from another team in restricted free agency.

Still, the struggles that Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe have endured this summer in restricted free agency loom as cautionary tales for a player in Thompson’s position. Other teams could view Lacob’s comments in the same light as ones from Suns owner Robert Sarver and president of basketball operations Lon Babby, both of whom threatened to match any offer another team might make to Bledsoe in restricted free agency. It doesn’t appear as though any team has stepped forward with a max offer for Bledsoe, or at least one trumping the four years and $48MM reportedly on the table from the Suns, in spite of his immense talent. The market has appeared similarly stingy for Monroe, who doesn’t engender the same sort of concern about a short track record as Bledsoe does. The threat of the match from both the Suns and Pistons has loomed too large for other clubs to bear.

Duffy and Thompson could just as easily point to Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons, who wound up with max or near-max offer sheets this summer. With them, and with Parsons in particular, there was seemingly less of a chance that their original teams would match. The restricted free agency market has been turned upside-down this summer, such that Hayward, whom I ranked No. 7 in the Hoops Rumors Free Agent Power Rankings, and Parsons, who was outside that top 10, are poised to wind up with better deals than Bledsoe and Monroe, Nos. 4 and 5, respectively.

The potential for another topsy-turvy summer of restricted free agency paints Golden State’s extension talks with Thompson in a new light. The trade chatter surrounding him had already added an unusual dimension to the negotiations. The chances of Thompson signing an extension seemingly go up as soon as the Wolves trade Love elsewhere, in part because the chances that the Warriors would trade Thompson for Love would appear to go down if Thompson inks an extension. Players who sign rookie scale extensions are subject to the Poison Pill Provision that makes it difficult to match salaries in a trade. The Warriors would have a choice to make if Love remains in Minnesota by the end of October, though unless the Wolves somehow find a way to sweeten their proposals in a way that would convince Golden State to budge on Thompson, it appears that choice has been made.

Thompson might not be a superstar on the level of Love, or even an All-Star, but he’s an eminently valuable player. He, rather than Stephen Curry, often takes on the job of defending point guards, and Thompson’s three-point accuracy has helped the backcourt pairing fully live up to its Splash Brothers moniker. He hasn’t shot less than 40% from behind the arc over the course of any of his three pro seasons, and last year’s 41.7% mark established a new career high.

He fits the profile of the “Three-and-D” type that’s a sought-after commodity in today’s NBA. Thompson is also just 24 years old and has missed only one game in his entire pro career. He scored the majority of his 18.4 points per game from inside the arc this past season, so he’s much more than just a spot-up artist.

The Warriors have reportedly budgeted for a max deal for Thompson, an effort that apparently dates back to the team’s veteran extension with Andrew Bogut last October. The max that Thompson is eligible for is the smaller max, roughly equivalent to 25% of the salary cap in the first season of the deal. The value of the max won’t be known until next summer regardless of whether Thompson signs an extension or a new contract, but this season it entailed a starting salary of $14.746MM. That’s not the sort of cap-crippling figure that a max contract for a veteran like LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony would bring.

It would nonetheless be quite a bit more than the four-year, $44MM extension that Curry signed in 2012 amid fear about the long-term health of his ankles. The Warriors lucked out with that deal, and it preserves the team’s ability to give Thompson a five-year extension under the Designated Player rule. It also means that Curry can hit free agency just two years through Thompson’s next deal, when he’ll be eligible for a higher max that would help him recoup the money he missed out on in his discount extension.

Such a concern is likely one that the Warriors have considered as they’ve planned for the possibility of a max deal for Thompson. That Golden State has budgeted for a max deal and that Lacob has made pronouncements that a deal of some kind will get done would have made it unsurprising if the Warriors had signed Thompson to a max extension as soon as they could at the beginning of July. That they haven’t done so may well have connection to the Love talks, but the Warriors needn’t have made such a quick move to get him to sign even independent of trade considerations. This year’s restricted free agency market has made Golden State’s hesitancy to immediately ink Thompson to a max deal look wise. The Warriors also have the privilege of being able to offer Thompson the chance to play on a club that’s not far from title contention, a far cry from the state of the Wolves or another team to which Thompson could be traded.

That’s why I predicted this week that Thompson will ink an extension for four years and $58MM, a figure that would probably end up roughly $8-9MM less than the most he could get in a deal for that length. The four years, rather than five, would allow him to hit free agency sooner and reap a higher max, or something close to it. Signing an extension this year instead of waiting for restricted free agency would also help Thompson ensure that he won’t be traded. Sacrificing the max now would represent a giveback for Thompson, to be sure, but the benefits of doing so make it an enticing choice.

Extension Candidate: Kobe Bryant

November 6th, 2013 at 10:31am CST by Luke Adams

Kobe Bryant isn’t going anywhere. We haven’t seen him on an NBA court yet this fall, but the 15-time All-Star will play for the Lakers this season. And despite the fact that unrestricted free agency is looming in 2014, he’ll play for the Lakers beyond this season, assuming he wants to continue his career, which looks like a good bet.

The inevitably of Kobe remaining in Los Angeles removes a little of the drama from extension talks between him and the team, as well as from his looming free agency. But even if we’re 99% sure of what the end result will be, that doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll get there smoothly. Kobe and the Lakers are in a unique situation right now, and negotiations between the two sides could proceed in any number of directions.

The first key factor to consider is Kobe’s health. Much has been written about how difficult it is for players to recapture their previous form following Achilles injuries, particularly players at Bryant’s age (35). And equally as much has been written about Kobe’s otherworldly drive and work ethic — in other words, if anyone can return from an Achilles tear without losing a step, the longtime Laker is a pretty good candidate. Still, the Lakers will likely hesitate to engage in serious discussions until the team sees that Kobe is once again healthy and productive.

Assuming that happens at some point before the spring, the next question is whether Kobe will sign an in-season extension or wait until free agency to ink a new deal. Lakers co-owner and executive VP Jim Buss recently vowed that his star wouldn’t become a free agent, and an extension would certainly have benefits for both sides. For Kobe, who is unlikely to sign for the full five years he could get as a free agent, adding two or three more years to his current contract seems reasonable, and it would allow him to avoid the uncertainty of the free agent period. For the Lakers, it would mean they wouldn’t have to negotiate with their franchise player next July at the same time the club hopes to negotiate with other marquee free agents.

Of course, the question that dwarfs the others involves – surprise! – money. Bryant is making an incredible $30,453,805 this season, a figure that won’t be matched by another player for years to come, due in part to the limitations of the new CBA. Kobe will be eligible for yet another raise, but it’s more likely we’ll see his salary start to head in the other direction. But how low will Kobe be willing to go?

In the summer of 2012, Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett both hit free agency at age 36, the same birthday Kobe will celebrate next August. Duncan and Garnett were coming off salaries of $21MM+, significantly less than Bryant’s, but still figures that exceeded the maximum. On their new deals, Duncan and KG signed for annual salaries in the $10-12MM range, a pay cut of about 50% in both instances.

That sounds about right to me for Kobe, depending on how strong he looks coming off his Achilles rehab. Something in the neighborhood of $10-15MM per year would allow the Lakers to retain plenty of potential cap space to pursue other free agents. It also wouldn’t represent too massive a pay cut for Bryant, who has said he still intends to negotiate the best deal possible.

Eric Pincus and Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times suggested over the summer that perhaps Kobe and the Lakers could work out a deal that would see Bryant sign a one-year, minimum salary contract in 2014. Los Angeles would still hold Kobe’s Bird rights, meaning the club could sign him to a max-salary contract in 2015. The end result would still be an annual salary in the $10MM neighborhood for those two seasons, but his paltry ’14 salary would give the Lakers a ton of cap room to add free agents or make trades. Of course, this type of prearranged move technically isn’t allowed by the NBA, and it’s risky to assume that the Lakers could convince the league to allow it. After all, we saw the NBA shut down the idea of the Celtics and Clippers circumventing league rules this summer to allow both Garnett and Doc Rivers to move to L.A.

A more traditional contract is the likely outcome for Kobe and the Lakers, but how they arrive at that deal is still anyone’s guess. Here’s my guess: Bryant returns to the court this season and remains very effective, if not quite the same dominant scorer that he was before the injury. Sometime before next July, I expect the two sides to announce an extension that will keep Kobe under contract for two or three more seasons, at around $15MM annually. That looks to me like a fair middle ground between the Lakers having to keep Kobe’s $32MM cap hold on their books next July, or the former MVP being forced to accept a mid-level deal or worse.

As we’ve seen with Mike Brown, Mike D’Antoni, Phil Jackson, Dwight Howard, and others in L.A. over the last year and a half, things rarely play out that cleanly when it comes to the Lakers. Impending free agencies for LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony may draw more attention this season, but Kobe’s will be a fascinating case to watch.

Extension Candidate: Andrew Bogut

October 3rd, 2013 at 3:10pm CST by Luke Adams

Since the Warriors acquired Andrew Bogut prior to the 2012 trade deadline, the veteran center has appeared in just 32 of 109 games for the team, having been sidelined extensively with ankle and back issues throughout the last season and a half. But Bogut reportedly looks good this fall, and recently told Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News that his goal is to play a full 82-game slate for Golden State this season.

Bogut's health is no guarantee, but if he manages to avoid further injuries over the next few months, the timing would be fortuitous. After all, the Australian is heading into the final season of a five-year, $60MM contract, making him eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer.

As I've written before, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has significantly reduced the number of veteran contract extensions signed. Except in a few specific scenarios, there simply isn't much incentive for teams or players to extend a contract during the season rather than waiting for free agency. Nonetheless, Bogut is extension-eligible and isn't ruling out that possibility, telling Kawakami in the article linked above that he'd like to stay with the Warriors beyond this season.

"There haven’t been (extension talks)," Bogut said. "But I want to stay here, if I can. I like the organization, I like the direction, I like the owners, I love the coaches, I love the players. I honestly want to stay here. But I’m not (overlooking) that I’ve been hurt, so my value has been diminished a little bit. And obviously I want to have a good year.

"If I get an extension, I get it," Bogut continued. "If I don’t, I don’t. But we’re not really talking about it right now. The focus is training camp. And I think a big fella on the open market isn’t all so bad, either, judging by the last (offseason)."

Kawakami writes in his piece that the Warriors have "pretty clearly" indicated they'd like to keep Bogut long-term, so there seems to be mutual interest in working something out, whether that happens next July or earlier. Marcus Thompson II of the Bay Area News Group recently wrote that the club is taking a "wait-and-see" approach on extension talks, which suggests a new deal in the near future is probably unlikely. Still, we saw a year ago when Golden State locked up Stephen Curry to a long-term deal that the team is willing to roll the dice on players coming off injuries if there's an opportunity to get a bargain on premium talent.

So let's assume that the two sides at least discuss the topic in the next few weeks or months. What might a new deal for Bogut look like? Well, as he suggested himself, his injury history will hurt his value a little, meaning he's not likely to replicate the $14MM salary he'll earn in 2013/14. Still, as a former first overall pick with plenty left in the tank, he's definitely worth more than mid-level money. If we split the difference, that would mean an annual average value in the neighborhood of $9-10MM.

Would that be affordable enough for the Warriors? Although the team shed a ton of short-term salary by trading Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson, and Brandon Rush to the Jazz, that swap didn't improve the club's long-term cap flexibility. Golden State is still in fairly good shape for now, with only about $50MM in guaranteed salaries on its books for each of the next two seasons (2014/15 and 2015/16). There should definitely be room to pay Bogut a sizable salary in at least '14/15, but things could start to get tricky after that.

Klay Thompson will be eligible for restricted free agency in 2015, and Harrison Barnes could hit the market in 2016. Keeping both of those guys around, with Bogut still earning close to $10MM, could push team salary into tax territory. On the other hand, David Lee's big contract finally comes off the books in 2016, and this summer's cost-cutting trade with Utah showed that the Warriors can get creative when it comes to making room for their core players.

If we assume that the Warriors would be on board with a three-year extension worth $25MM+ for Bogut, what about the big man himself? If he plays anything close to the 82 games he's aiming for, and remains productive, he may be in line for a larger payday. But Andrew Bynum's free agency should be a cautionary tale — a year after he appeared to be headed for a max contract, Bynum only received $6MM in guaranteed money due to health concerns.

Given all the variables in play here, I doubt we'll see the two sides reach any sort of agreement until next July. The Warriors have enough cap flexibility that they can afford to wait and see how this season plays out, rather than risking committing long-term money to a player whose health is a question mark. As for Bogut, the incentive of rebuilding his value in a contract year likely looks more appealing than settling for a discount. I wouldn't be surprised if Bogut eventually remains in Golden State beyond 2014, but I expect to see him hit the open market next summer.
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Extension Candidate: Avery Bradley

September 14th, 2013 at 2:01pm CST by Chuck Myron

In the last couple of weeks, I looked at a pair of extension–eligible Kings who must make their cases for long-term commitments almost exclusively on their offensive production. The opposite is true for Avery Bradley as he seeks an extension from the Celtics. Bradley is the rare player whose defensive prowess is perceptible even to the casual fan, as he's so often able to stand right in front of opposing ball-handlers without allowing them to blow right past him on the way to the hoop. It's an aggressive tactic that takes first-rate athleticism and a level of concentration most guys rarely exhibit on defense. That kind of play would make stars out of many mediocre NBA figures, and it would make an extension for Bradley a slam dunk if he managed so much as league-average offensive production.

Alas, the former Texas Longhorn took major steps backward on offense last year. Bradley made just 49.1% of his field-goal attempts from point-blank range in 2012/13, compared to 64.1% the year before, per Basketball-Reference data. He took fewer of those shots, too — in 2011/12, 40.8% of his field goal attempts came at the rim, but that figure dropped to 30.5% this past season. Bradley alarmingly took nearly precisely as many long-range two-pointers, widely considered the worst shots in basketball based on their risk-reward ratio, as he did shots from three feet away or less. He upped the frequency of his three-point attempts after making 40.7% of them in 2011/12, but his accuracy plummeted to 31.7% this past year.

Perhaps those numbers indicate that Bradley was still feeling the effects of the painful shoulder injuries that kept him out until January, which would suggest a turnaround is in order. His performance during the preseason will be an opportunity for him to show the Celtics whether he can at least return to his 2011/12 level of offensive production. With Rajon Rondo still recovering from his torn ACL, Bradley figures to have a chance to show whether he's improved his point guard play. He put up 2.4 assists per game against 1.6 turnovers per game in the 38 contests following Rondo's injury, a ratio that won't cut it as a team's primary ball-handler.

Still, the Celtics were a somewhat better offensive team when Bradley was on the floor last season, and a slightly worse defense team, according to points-per-possessions data on NBA.com. Of course, those stats don't account for the players surrounding Bradley, and the Celtics will certainly benefit from having a sticky perimeter defender around with Kevin Garnett no longer there to anchor the defense. It's difficult to find guys who commit as much effort to defending as Bradley does, and that sort of approach to the game has value with a young, rebuilding squad like the Celtics.

Restricted free agency generally gives teams leverage when it comes to re-signing players who are widely considered budding stars, but it can get tricky when a role player like Bradley is involved. Front offices may have widely varying assessments of Bradley's worth next summer, based on their evaluations as well as the needs of their teams. The Celtics will have $52.3MM in money committed for 2014/15, assuming they pick up the rookie-scale options for Jared Sullinger and MarShon Brooks and don't make any space-clearing moves this season. Their cap room could disappear quickly next summer if they have to match another team's bloated offer for Bradley.

Of course, an extension for Bradley would take most, if not all, of that cap room off the table to begin with. Taj Gibson's four-year, $33MM deal last fall is probably the price point for a rookie-scale extension to a valuable defensive-minded role player. Such a deal for Bradley would put the Celtics right at the cap line for next summer. Letting Bradley hit restricted free agency would afford the Celtics more wiggle room, thanks to the team's ability to keep him even if they're over the cap. If Bradley signs an offer sheet on the first day after the July Moratorium, and Danny Ainge and company want to match it, the team would have three days to use its cap room to sign other players before matching the offer sheet via Bird rights. As we saw this summer, restricted free agents were some of the last marquee free agents to sign, so the Celtics could wind up with plenty more time than that to use up their cap space before they'd be forced to either use it on Bradley or watch him walk to another team.

Bradley's agent is former NBA player Mitchell Butler, as our Hoops Rumors Agency Database shows. The Celtics recently signed obscure prospect Damen Bell-Holter, another Butler client, to a training camp deal, and perhaps that could be a sign that the team wants to extend an olive branch with the October 31st extension deadline looming. Even if my speculation here is correct, that doesn't mean the C's intend to grant Bradley an extension — it could instead signal that Ainge and company still regard Bradley and Butler highly even though they want to table talks until the summer. Regardless, there could be some intrigue as the cut-off date for extensions draws near, but given the lingering questions about Bradley's offense and the increased flexibility that restricted free agency would give the team, I don't think we'll see a deal.

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