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Extension Candidate: Serge Ibaka

August 4th, 2012 at 1:48pm CST by Chuck Myron

The Thunder have made rapid progress toward an NBA championship in recent years, and are held up as a model franchise around the league. Yet the cloud hanging over the team after its trip to the NBA Finals this past June concerns the futures of James Harden and Serge Ibaka, two young cornerstones in line for significant raises soon. As Luke Adams pointed out when he looked at the prospect of an extension for Harden, the Thunder would be committing more than $60MM for four players if they gave maximum extensions to both Harden and Ibaka, since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are also signed to maximum deals. The volume of chatter about Harden seems to indicate GM Rob Hennigan and company are giving him priority, but clearly they'd like to find a way to keep them both.

The contribution Ibaka makes to the team isn't as readily apparent in box scores as what Harden does, though Ibaka was far and away the league leader in blocks per game last year. His average of 3.7 BPG was 68% better than the 2.2 submitted by JaVale McGee, the league's second-best shot blocker in 2011/12. No active player has ever blocked more shots per game in a season than Ibaka did last year. All those rejections led to a first-team All-Defensive selection, and helped him to the league's 11th best defensive rating, according to Basketball-Reference. Perhaps most remarkable about his blocks is that he got them in just 27.2 minutes a game, much less court time than what most key contributors see.  Even though Harden comes off the bench, he averaged 31.4 MPG, significantly more than Ibaka, who starts. 

Ibaka might be pressed into longer minutes if the team unloads Kendrick Perkins and the $17.63MM he's owed between 2013/14 and 2014/15. Doing so would make it easier for the Thunder to squeeze in both Harden and Ibaka, though it's worth asking why the Thunder would be so anxious to get rid of someone who plays a role similar to Ibaka's. Both are Perkins and Ibaka are defensively oriented, offensively challenged post players. Perkins is five years older and doesn't possess nearly the athleticism of Ibaka, but he's sturdier and able to protect the basket, as evidenced by his 2.0 blocks per game for the Celtics in 2008/09. Factor in the presence of Nick Collison, who's signed to a team-friendly contract through 2015 and is another big man who specializes in the game's subtleties, and it seems the Thunder have an inside player to spare.

Ibaka is likely to receive a maximum offer sheet as a restricted free agent next summer if the Thunder don't extend him by the October 31st deadline, if for no other reason than his potential. Ibaka arrived in the NBA with underdeveloped skills but has quickly picked up the nuances of the game during his three-year career, his PER rising from 15.2 as a rookie, to 17.7 in 2010/11, and to 19.0 last season. At 22, he still has the capacity for marked improvement. Just how much farther he can go is a mystery, and last season there was even evidence of regression. Ibaka's scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage and free throw percentage were all down last season, and his turnovers were up. 

The Thunder, who've nurtured and monitored his development every day for the last three years, probably have as much of an idea about what he can do as anyone. There's motivation for the team to try to save a few million dollars with an extension this summer, since Ibaka might want to take the guaranteed money on the table and hedge against injury, poor play and other uncertainty. Yet if the Thunder have any inkling that Ibaka's growth as a player is about to level off, they might want to let him play out the season and take their chances with him as a free agent. If they can extend Harden for less than the maximum this summer, they'd already have a little money saved, and if Ibaka has an outstanding 2012/13, they'll have time to decide what to do with Perkins and make other moves to clear room in preparation to re-sign Ibaka for the max. If Ibaka falters or levels off, their patience would go down as yet another shrewd move by one of the league's most well-regarded front offices.

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Extension Candidate: Stephen Curry

August 2nd, 2012 at 7:54pm CST by Michael Pina

Throughout his injury-plagued three-year career, Stephen Curry has proven to be one of the sharpest shooters in all of basketball. Two years ago he paced the entire league in free-throw percentage with an astonishing 93.4% mark, and his career three-point shooting percentage of 44.1% makes him a full-on priority for opposing defenses from almost anywhere on the court. 

And still, it's because of those aforementioned injuries, specifically Curry's ankles, that the Warriors are unlikely to offer him the five-year extension he currently seeks. CBSSports.com's Ken Berger tweeted in early July that "early indications" suggested the Warriors would not agree to a contract extension this year. Despite Curry's incredible ability to make shots at an efficient rate, guaranteeing him a long-term deal is simply too big of a risk for any team to commit to, especially when you factor in the harsh tax penalties that will kick in through the life of his hypothetical contract. 

And yet, one would think Curry is still a major part of the Warriors' future. He wants to play there for the long term, and time and time again the team has reportedly refused to part with Curry in deals for prominent stars like Rajon Rondo and Chris Paul. Then, in the face of a long-standing belief that Curry couldn't successfully co-exist in a winning backcourt with Monta Ellis, Golden State traded Ellis at last year's trading deadline. 

For the next two years, the Warriors have eight-figure deals tied into Andrew Bogut, David Lee, and Richard Jefferson. Based on his skill level compared to equally experienced colleagues, Curry could command as much as $14MM on the open market. It's difficult to imagine him and the Warriors parting ways, but it might be even harder to picture a Golden State franchise paying four non-All-Stars annual salaries of over $10MM. All the while, the Warriors still haven't proved to be a playoff team. 

One proposed possibility that's reportedly been discussed is an injury clause, which would give the Warriors some leeway in the event that Curry continues to miss significant time, or is forced to have another ankle surgery. It's a delicate situation for Warriors management to tip-toe around, and they only have until October 31 of this year to figure it out. The most likely scenario is the Warriors letting Curry become a restricted free agent, then matching the inevitable max offer sheet proposed by another team—a situation similar to what recently happened with Eric Gordon and the Hornets. This way Golden State saves a year's worth of salary, and Curry gets a hefty second contract.  

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Extension Candidate: Jrue Holiday

August 2nd, 2012 at 11:03am CST by Luke Adams

When Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports reported a month ago that Jrue Holiday would be seeking a maximum extension this offseason, the reactions across the board were fairly similar. The consensus: Good luck with that. While Holiday is evolving into a solid point guard and has made strides since debuting for the 76ers in 2009, his production to date doesn't seem worthy of a maximum salary. But what sort of price tag could the Sixers be facing if they decide to sign Holiday to a long-term deal in the next few months? Let's take a look….

After averaging 14.0 points and 6.5 assists per game in 2010/11, Holiday's numbers regressed slightly in 2011/12, to 13.5 points and 4.5 assists. However, he's proven to be durable, starting all but one game in the last two seasons for the Sixers. And considering he's just turned 22, you have to think Holiday's slight step back this past season is just a blip on the radar, and that he'll continue to improve rather than heading in the other direction.

Still, if he hopes to sign an extension, Holiday has to recognize that the Sixers can't just pay for his potential upside. The team's potential contract offer will take into account the 6'3" guard's career production to date. So perhaps it would be useful to compare Holiday's numbers to those of a couple other young point guards. Mike Conley signed a long-term extension with the Grizzlies after three seasons in the league in 2010, and Ty Lawson is eligible for an extension with the Nuggets this summer, as he heads into his fourth year. Here are a few career averages for the three guards as they headed into the final years of their rookie contracts:

PGcomparison

Although many of these numbers look awfully similar across the board, it's not hard to see that Lawson's efficient play gives him the advantage over the rest of the group. And while Holiday's rates compare favorably to Conley's, they don't suggest that he has a huge leg up on the Grizzlies' point guard.

Now, there are other factors to consider — Conley was nearly a year older than Holiday at the same points in their careers, and the former Buckeye signed his contract under a different Collective Bargaining Agreement. Nonetheless, it's hard to see why Holiday should receive much more than the five years and $40MM that Conley received on his first long-term deal. Particularly when an extension for Lawson, which I previewed last week, figures to be worth less than the max, perhaps $11-12MM annually. If Conley landed $8MM per year and Lawson can get $11-12MM, it makes sense that Holiday should fall somewhere in between the two. Something in the neighborhood of four years and $40MM for Holiday could work for both him and the Sixers.

The Sixers and Holiday's representatives will have plenty of time to negotiate an extension between now and the start of the season on October 30th, and I'd expect Philadelphia to make an offer close to the four years and $40MM I'm suggesting. But it wouldn't surprise me to see Holiday decline that offer and play out the season. If he keeps improving in 2012/13, it will only boost his stock, and could potentially earn him a more lucrative offer sheet from a rival team next summer, when he hits restricted free agency.

He may not be a maximum-salary player, but Holiday is a good bet to sign a very lucrative deal within the next year. Whether that happens this offseason or next summer, with the Sixers or another club, remains to be seen.

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Extension Candidate: Andrew Bynum

July 31st, 2012 at 11:39am CST by Luke Adams

It's impossible to discuss trade rumors involving Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum without noting that both players have just one year remaining on their contracts, and will be eligible for free agency next summer. Typically, when we hear about potential new destinations for either star center, we hear that any team acquiring either player would want a long-term commitment before making a deal.

As we've written many times, star players like Howard and Chris Paul are extremely unlikely to sign in-season extensions, since they'd only be able to add three new years rather than the five they could sign for in free agency. But there are certain instances when signing an extension could make more sense for a star player than signing a free agent contract. And as Larry Coon writes in an Insider piece for ESPN.com, Bynum may be one player that fits that bill.

If Bynum were to wait until next summer to sign a five-year contract, it would mean the following:

  • He would have to stay relatively healthy this season to avoid hurting his stock, something he hasn't always been able to do.
  • His maximum first-year salary for 2013/14 would be $17,733,450, 105% of his 2012/13 salary.
  • He would become a free agent again in the summer of 2018, at age 30.

None of those factors on their own should scare Bynum off of waiting until next summer to sign a new contract, but as Coon explains, there are alternatives that could better suit the 24-year-old. If he were to sign an extension immediately, for instance, he'd eliminate the potential injury risk involved in playing out the season.

Coon proposes that Bynum's best bet may be signing a three-year extension with a player option for the final season. In that case, the Lakers center could hit free agency in the summer of 2015, at age 27, when he has ten years of NBA experience. This would allow for the following:

  • By signing a five-year deal in 2015 (or 2016), Bynum could ensure he's locked into a long-term contract before the league or players' union has the opportunity to opt out of the current CBA in 2017. A new CBA could potentially be less favorable for maximum-salary players.
  • Because Bynum would be a 10-year veteran in 2015, signing at that point would allow him to earn a first-year salary worth the maximum salary for players with 10+ years of experience, which will almost certainly be higher than the $20,393,468 he'd earn in that season if he were to sign a five-year deal in 2013.
  • Signing a five-year deal in 2015 and including a player option for the last season would allow Bynum to opt out in 2019 and perhaps sign one last long-term contract at age 31. As Coon notes, due to the over-36 rule, players who are older than 31 can't sign full five-year deals, so age 31 represents the last opportunity for a maximum payday.

For Bynum, there are pros and cons to signing an extension in the near future, and it's certainly not out of the question that he'll decide he's better off waiting until next summer to ink a five-year max deal that would pay him over $100MM. But whereas it makes little sense for players like Howard and Paul to agree to extensions, there are reasons to believe it could be in Bynum's best interests.

So when we hear that Bynum and the Lakers could be discussing a potential contract extension, don't assume it's a bluff to accelerate Howard trade talks with the Magic. If they don't believe they'll land Howard, locking up Bynum for three more years is the best move the Lakers could make, and it might just be Bynum's best move too.

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Extension Candidate Series

July 31st, 2012 at 8:41am CST by Luke Adams

With most of the summer's big free agents off the board, the next few big names to sign contracts may not be players on the open market, but rather players signing extensions with their current teams. Players heading into the fourth and final seasons of their rookie contracts are eligible to sign extensions, as are a number of veterans. We'll be taking a look at some of those guys in Extension Candidate pieces.

This list of our Extension Candidate posts can be found at any time under the "Hoops Rumors Features" menu on the right sidebar. It will continue to be updated as we examine players that might be in for long-term deals in the near future. Here are the extension candidates we've previewed so far, in alpabetical order:

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Extension Candidate: Taj Gibson

July 28th, 2012 at 9:13pm CST by Ryan Raroque

With a barrage of new additions to the Bulls bench at the expense of cutting ties with nearly all of last year's second unit rotation players, Taj Gibson will be the only familiar face left of last year's group nicknamed the "Bench Mob" to return for 2012-13. The upcoming season marks the final year of Gibson's rookie-scale contract, but from what we've recently heard, Chicago has turned their attention toward extension talks. 

Gibson joins Luol Deng, Derrick Rose, and Joakim Noah as veteran players who have remained with the Bulls since being drafted, and he appears to have carved out a comfortable role on the team. Along with an impressive rookie 2009-10 campaign in which he averaged 9.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.3 BPG, and shot 49.4% from the field, Gibson has produced career averages of 7.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.3 BPG, and 48.5% FG shooting over his three seasons in Chicago. There haven't been any significant drop-offs in his numbers over a total of 27 playoff games (7.0/5.2/1.3/50%), which demonstrates his ability to remain consistently productive in meaningful games as well. 

For strictly basketball reasons, it makes absolute sense that the Bulls would want to retain Gibson for the long-term. The determining factor lies in the type of contract extension that they believe the former USC Trojan should receive. I would say a good approach would be to look at some of Gibson's contemporaries to propose a fair number. 

Omer Asik, whose contract with Houston will pay him about $8.36MM per year over three years, played a total of two seasons with the Bulls and averaged 2.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 0.8 BPG while shooting 52.9% from the field. Brandon Bass, who appears to have found his niche in Boston, just signed a three-year, $20MM extension to stay with the Celtics after posting career highs of 12.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and nearly one block per game last season. Lakers forward/center Jordan Hill, who was drafted 18 spots ahead of Gibson in 2009, had recently signed a two-year, $8MM deal to remain with the Lakers. While I would not expect a potential extension to be as low as an average of $4MM annually, I would think that the Bulls would at least be willing to entertain negotiations at a number starting above that. I'd say a two or three year deal for around $6MM annually would be very reasonable. 

Even with their new additions, the Bulls are still slated to have a decent amount of cap space for the 2014-15 NBA season, as the contracts they've handed out this summer have either been one or two-year deals. As of today, Chicago only has Rose, Deng, and Noah under guaranteed contracts for 2014-15, totaling to about $48.8MM. Depending on the salary number, a deal that starts at two years for Gibson could significantly cut into the team's flexibility in that second year. However, that number may not be considered as hindering in 2015-16, when the payroll is only currently committed to Rose and Deng for a total of $32.4MM. 

Gibson just turned 27 last month, and I feel that what you've seen from him is what you will continue to get. He's as solid a role player you can find in the NBA, rebounds and defends well, has shown his ability to finish strong at the rim, and can hit the mid-range jumpshot at a decent rate. His 7'4'' wingspan allows him to play much bigger than his listed height of 6'9'' and he displays fluid athleticism. Although his numbers could most likely reach double-double territory with more playing time and/or a starting role, I think it's quite possible that he's hit his ceiling in terms of his abilities. It appears that a player like Asik was paid for what he could become, whereas Bass was paid for what he will continue to be. I'd say Gibson fits in with the latter. 

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Extension Candidate: Brandon Jennings

July 28th, 2012 at 3:56pm CST by Chuck Myron

Brandon Jennings seemed to throw his long-term future with the Bucks into question when he said in February he was "doing my homework on big-market teams." Jennings quickly backtracked a little, and more recently he's indicated a willingness to sign a long-term extension with Milwaukee. The 6'1" high-scoring point guard has never been an All-Star, and the Bucks have only made one playoff appearance in his three seasons with the team, but there are still compelling reasons for them to want to hang on to the player they took 10th overall in 2009.

Jennings made an early splash with a 55-point burst in just his seventh pro game, but averaged just 15.8 points per game for his first two seasons. He lifted that number significantly this past season, to 19.1, helped not only by 2.2 more shots per game, but by improved shooting as well. He's continually raised his field goal percentage, from 37.1% in his rookie year to 39.0% in 2010/11, and to 41.8% last season. His advanced metrics show similar upticks, as his true shooting percentage, PER and win shares per 48 minutes all show year-to-year improvement throughout Jennings' brief career.

The Bucks are looking forward to a full season of Jennings and Monta Ellis in the backcourt. While conventional wisdom might suggest Ellis would siphon some of Jennings' offense, that wasn't the case last year, as Jennings' scoring average and shooting percentage were both up after Ellis arrived in a trade with the Warriors. Ellis averaged more than four fewer points per game with the Bucks than with the Warriors last year, so it remains to be seen whether the pairing can work for both players. Unfortunately, the Bucks won't have the benefit of a sample size larger than last year's 21-game partial-season experiment if they want to sign Jennings to an extension, since the deadline to do so is October 31.

Milwaukee has never been a destination for top-flight free agent talent, so it makes sense for the franchise to do what it can to retain its own players, even if it has to overpay a little. Jennings turns 23 in September, and given his steady improvement, he could easily develop into an annual 20+ PPG scorer, a commodity at the point guard position. He's never been a high-assist player, topping out at 5.7 assists per game his rookie year, but his career assist-to-turnover rating of 5.4-to-2.3 suggests he can handle an offense with at least passable efficiency.

Based on Jennings' track record and potential, the Bucks can probably justify a four-year extension for the maximum. That would mean a first-year salary of 25% of whatever the salary cap is in 2013/14, when the extension would take effect, with 7.5% raises. That works out to about $14.5MM in the first year based on the current $58.044MM cap. In 2013/14, the Bucks will have $7.9MM committed to Ersan Ilyasova in the second year of his five-year deal, while Ellis has an early termination option worth $11MM for that season. Assuming Ellis stays with the Bucks and Jennings gets a max extension, that's $33.4MM for three players, which is not too expensive for the core of a team.

While Jennings, Ellis and Ilyasova are all under 30 and have room for improvement, no one's mistaking them for the cornerstones of a title winner. The Bucks have the flexibility to keep their team intact, but it's clear they'll need more. It's doubtful they can do much better than Jennings on the free agent market, but if they decide against extending him, or he decides to see what he can get from those big-market teams he talked about in February, he could be in for a tough go in restricted free agency.

Point guards Ty Lawson, Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday and Jeff Teague could all become restricted free agents next summer, while Chris Paul, Jose Calderon, Mo Williams could be up for grabs as unrestricted free agents. Jennings could always sign his qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in 2014, but that seems unlikely. A maximum extension appears to be mutually beneficial for both the Bucks and Jennings, and I expect agent Bill Duffy and GM John Hammond to come to an agreement soon.

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Extension Candidate: James Harden

July 27th, 2012 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Much has been made about the clock that seems to be ticking on the Oklahoma City Thunder's current core. With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook locked up to big, long-term contracts, and James Harden and Serge Ibaka poised to become restricted free agents a year from now, it seems impossible that a small-market team like the Thunder could keep all four players.

But CBA rules certainly won't prevent Oklahoma City from keeping all its stars if the team is willing to pay for them. Since Harden and Ibaka are restricted (rather than unrestricted) free agents in the summer of 2013, the Thunder will be able to match any offer those two players receive from another team. However, paying all four of its core players while staying below the luxury tax threshold will be a challenge.

With Durant slated to make about $17.83MM in 2013/14 and Westbrook due about $14.69MM, maximum salaries for Harden and Ibaka would take the Thunder's total payroll up to $60MM+ for four players. Even with increased cap and tax thresholds, and the chance to potentially trade or amnesty Kendrick Perkins, the Thunder would be commiting enough to four players that there's a strong chance they'd be a taxpaying team. With more punitive tax charges beginning in the summer of 2014, and those max salaries increasing annually, that's not good news for the team.

Still, there should be a way for the Thunder to retain both players and still have a chance to avoid a large tax hit. If the club hopes to keep both Harden and Ibaka, contract extensions would make more sense than waiting until next year's free agent period. As we saw with free agents like Roy Hibbert and Eric Gordon this summer, you don't necessarily have to be a perennial All-Star for rival teams to be willing to offer you a max deal, and Harden and Ibaka are good bets to receive max offers next summer. If the Thunder pre-emptively offer long-term extensions for a little below the max, the team has a chance to save a few million dollars — perhaps Harden and/or Ibaka would sign slightly below-market deals to hedge their bets against poor performance or a serious injury in 2012/13.

Let's take a look specifically at Harden's case. Kevin Durant declared earlier this month that there was no way Harden would hit the open market next summer, and while he backed off that comment today, I do get the sense that the Thunder are prioritizing a Harden extension at this point. When the season ended, the Sixth Man of the Year talked about how much he loved playing in Oklahoma City, and said he hoped to sign a long-term deal to remain with the club.

The fact that Harden is hoping to be extended rather than talking about testing the free agent waters could provide some hope that he doesn't intend to squeeze every last dollar out of the Thunder. Additionally, this offseason might just be the time for the Thunder to strike, with Harden coming off a disappointing Finals performance against the Heat. The 22-year-old's play in that series certainly didn't impact his value significantly, but it could have been enough to save the Thunder a little more money.

Unfortunately, the Thunder lost one additional piece of leverage when they inked Westbrook to a five-year extension earlier this year. Each team is only allowed to sign one player to a five-year deal coming off a rookie contract, so Westbrook is now the Thunder's "designated player," meaning Oklahoma City doesn't have the advantage of offering Harden that extra year.

What might a four-year extension for Harden look like then? I doubt the Thunder are able to get it done for less than $50MM, but something in that neighborhood could work for both sides. Harden would receive his first massive payday, while the Thunder would avoid having to pay him the max (which figures to amount to well over $60MM), saving some room for Ibaka and others.

If Oklahoma City isn't willing to go that high, or maybe even higher, for Harden, he likely won't be in any hurry to sign an extension. With a shortage of elite shooting guards around the league these days, Harden would draw plenty of interest on the open market next summer, perhaps from the Suns, the team that missed out on Gordon. Phoenix should have a decent chunk of cap space available a year from now, and is said to have interest in Harden, interest that could be mutual.

"Yeah," Harden told Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic, when asked if he'd consider signing with the Suns. "Of course. I love it there. My mom lives there still. So that's definitely my second home as far as my comfort level and going to school there."

Harden quickly reiterated that he's a member of the Thunder, and indicated he'd like to remain in Oklahoma City for the long-term. And I think there's a good chance the two sides work out an agreement sometime before October 31st to make that happen. If they do, it'll be yet another sign that the Thunder are committed to keeping their core intact, ensuring that they remain a perennial threat for the NBA title for years to come.

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Extension Candidate: Ty Lawson

July 25th, 2012 at 1:24pm CST by Luke Adams

When the 2012/13 NBA season officially began on July 1st, the Clippers moved quickly to lock up All-Star forward Blake Griffin to a maximum-salary, five-year extension. To date, Griffin is the player heading into the final year of his rookie deal that has signed a contract extension, but there's no shortage of potential candidates. Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday, Taj Gibson, and the Thunder's much-discussed duo of James Harden and Serge Ibaka are all eligible for extensions as well. However, the next player we see receive a new deal may be a guy that was picked with just the 18th overall pick in 2009 — Ty Lawson.

Playing on a Nuggets team that features a number of young, talented players, Lawson is the next one in line for an extension. With Danilo Gallinari (four years, $42MM), Wilson Chandler (five years, $31.7MM), Arron Afflalo (five years, $36.8MM), and most recently JaVale McGee (four years, $44MM) all locked up, Lawson could receive a long-term contract that exceeds all of them.

In his three seasons so far in Denver, Lawson has progressed in exactly the way the team hoped. As his minutes increased from 20.3 per game in 2009/10 to 34.8 in 2011/12, his production increased as well, from 8.3 to 16.4 PPG and 16.4 to 19.4 PER. While Lawson had a terrific regular season this past year, he was at his best in the postseason, nearly helping to lead the Nuggets to a first-round upset over the Lakers by averaging 19.0 PPG, 6.0 APG, and 23.2 PER.

The Nuggets re-signed Andre Miller to a three-year deal earlier this month, and he'll provide a solid veteran presence at the point in Denver. But Lawson definitely seems to be the team's long-term answer at the position — the 24-year-old has told multiple outlets in recent weeks that he's optimistic about working out an extension with the Nuggets at some point this summer.

So what kind of deal could Lawson be looking at? A pair of beat writers recently weighed in on the subject, with Chris Dempsey of the Denver Post opining (via Twitter) that the floor for Lawson's next deal should be $11MM annually, exceeding McGee's guarantee. Chris Tomasson of FOX Sports Florida (Sulia link), meanwhile, tempered his expectations slightly, but conceded that the young point guard could become the Nuggets' third player to command an eight-digit annual salary.

The Nuggets' 2012/13 books won't be affected by a Lawson extension, which wouldn't take effect until 2013/14, but Denver's handful of long-term contracts means they don't have a ton of flexibility going forward. With McGee, Miller, and Anthony Randolph signed to multiyear deals, the Nuggets' '13/14 commitments total over $60MM — a figure that includes Al Harrington's $7MM+ salary, which is only partially guaranteed and could be waived or traded. Still, an eight-digit salary for Lawson would take the Nuggets well over the cap, and could even see them approaching the tax threshold, depending on their other moves.

Lawson's annual salary could also vary depending on whether the Nuggets are willing to give him a five-year deal. A team is only allowed to sign one player coming off a rookie scale contract to a five-year contract, and it's hard to see why Lawson wouldn't be that designated player for Denver. He's a better candidate than other Nuggets on rookie deals, such as Kenneth Faried and Evan Fournier, and the team is unlikely to land a lottery pick anytime soon. If the Nuggets were to offer Lawson five years rather than four, perhaps they could reduce the annual cap hit slightly, in exchange for a larger overall guarantee.

Will a core of Lawson, McGee, Gallinari, Chandler, Afflalo, Faried, Fournier, and the rest ever be enough to challenge for a title? That much is still unclear, but so far the Nuggets have done a good job of signing multiyear deals that are still fairly movable if the team decides to move in another direction. Lawson seems to be heading for a long-term contract worth around $10MM annually, and based on his development in the first three years of his NBA career, that's another deal that should never become an albatross for Denver.

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