Fantasy Hoops

The 2016/17 campaign is approaching the half-way mark and Hoops Rumors is examining the fantasy basketball landscape in order to help you dominate the competition. Check back weekly for more fantasy basketball analysis.

Processing Opportunity

Joel Embiid spent the last few weeks lobbying to become an All-Star. Off the court, the Sixers heavily campaigned for his All-Star candidacy, a crusade which included a Shirley Temple promotion night, and Embiid used the spotlight of both the pre-game and the post-game to promote himself.

Embiid filled his Twitter feed with cleverly designed responses and he even got the team’s former GM Sam Hinkie to throw him support.

On the court, he made a push toward his goal of taking an extra trip to New Orleans. He scored at least 20 points in each of his last nine games, a stretch in which he averaged 23.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game.

It’s not likely the effort grants him an All-Star appearance due to the lack of playing time, though his play remains impressive. Embiid has produced excellent numbers on a 28-minutes-per-game count, but it was reported earlier today that the restriction isn’t likely to be lifted. His fantasy value was expected to continue to increase as the season progressed, provided he remained healthy, but it appears his value may be at its peak.

So what should you do if you own Embiid in re-draft leagues? Conventional wisdom tells you to sell high since his fantasy value is more likely to decrease than it is to increase. If he had a shot at a full allotment of minutes, he could easily become a top-20 fantasy option, which would settle him into the Draymond Green–Kristaps Porzingis range. However, his numbers aren’t likely to improve drastically and that, coupled with his injury history, should make owners consider dealing him if the price is right.

His current production and minute restriction places him in the top-40 range, behind players such as Marc Gasol, Eric Bledsoe, Rudy Gobert, Myles Turner and Brook Lopez. Any of the aforementioned players are fantasy upgrades over Embiid. If rival owners are relishing in The Process’ hype, you could take advantage of it with a trade and improve your fantasy team.

Opting to keep the Cameroon native on your team remains a respectable option. He’s producing solid numbers and the Sixers continue to funnel him the ball, as his third-ranked usage rate indicates. Also, it’s probably fun to cheer for the big man when he’s on your squad. Still, savvy fantasy owners should always be on the lookout for a situation where a player’s hype doesn’t match his production because, in those situations, it’s likely that an opportunity to improve your fantasy team exists.

Here’s more fantasy analysis and notes from around the league:

• The Nuggets have given up the most assists and second most points to opposing guards over their last 10 contests. If Gary Harris is forced to miss additional time with his latest ailment, it’ll be difficult for them to improve in that area. Rookie Jamal Murray and 34-year-old Jameer Nelson would take on additional minutes and that’s not a recipe for better defense. After facing the Lakers tonight, the team will take on the Spurs and Clippers.
• Chris Paul will undergo surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb and he’s expected to miss 6-8 weeks. Raymond Felton should take over the starting point guard duties and he’s worth an add for owners in need of point guard production. The Clippers will take on the Wolves (a team which is allowing the third most assists to opposing point guards over their last 10) on Thursday and the Nuggets on Saturday.
• Over his last six games, Ricky Rubio is averaging 12.8 assists and 2.5 steals per contest. The Wolves are reportedly looking to deal him, so enjoy his production now, but beware of the potential for a drop-off caused by an adjustment period to a new team.

The 2016/17 campaign is nearing the half-way mark and Hoops Rumors is examining the fantasy basketball landscape in order to help you dominate the competition. Check back weekly for more fantasy basketball analysis.

Atlanta’s 60-Win Quintet No Longer Makes Music

The Hawks have been pretty busy recently. They traded away Kyle Korver and fielded calls for Paul Millsap over the last week, though it was reported today that the team has informed the power forward that he will not be dealt. Millsap is the last remaining starter from Atlanta’s tremendous 2014/15 team that led the Eastern Conference with 60 wins.

Let’s examine how each starting member of that team is doing this season and rank them according to their fantasy basketball value.

1. Paul Millsap (Remains with the Hawks): The 31-year-old leads this list because of his ability to reliably contribute in a number of categories.  He’s in the top-10 in points, rebounds and assists per game among power forwards and he’s only slightly outside the top-10 in free throw percentage and blocks per game. Draymond Green is the only big man to average more steals per game than him. Factor in his 3-point shooting (making over a shot per game from behind the arc) and his solid field goal percentage overall, and you’ve got one of the most well-rounded fantasy options in the league.
2. Jeff Teague (Traded to the Pacers during the offseason): Teague took a while to get acclimated to the Pacers, but he’s playing well lately. Entering Tuesday, he’s averaging 17.4 points and 10.1 assists per game while shooting 48.0% from the field over his last 11 contests. He’s in a great situation playing in Indiana’s fast paced offense and he’s on pace to have one of his best seasons as a pro.
3. Al Horford (Signed with the Celtics during the offseason): Horford also had an adjustment period with his new team this season, a situation that was compounded when he missed nine games because of a concussion. He’s appears to have grown more comfortable in his new home, though his field goal percentage remains an issue. He’s only making 45.2% of his attempts this season, which is his lowest mark since his rookie campaign. That’s due in part to an increase in 3-point attempts, as he’s chucking a career-high 4.4 shots per game from behind the arc. He’s making 1.5 3-pointers per contest, the second highest mark in the league among centers (Brook Lopez is knocking down nearly two per night). The increased usage on the perimeter has hurt his rebounding totals over the last few seasons and this year, it’s impacting that category yet again, as he’s grabbing a career-worst 6.7 rebounds per game.
4. DeMarre Carroll (Signed with the Raptors during the 2015 offseason): Carroll is a fantasy asset when he’s both healthy and receiving a full complement of minutes. He’s missed over 51% of his games due to injury since signing with Toronto and he’s been limited in many others. However, it appears the team is starting to feel comfortable giving him a full workload, as he’s averaging 37.3 minutes per game over his last four contests. He was particularly impressive over his last two games, where he’s made a total of 10 3-pointers and shot 50.0% from the field.
5. Kyle Korver (Traded to the Cavs last week): The 35-year-old shooting guard will come off the bench for the defending champs and don’t expect him to contribute much in terms of fantasy. He saw 18 minutes of action in tonight’s loss to Jazz, but only made one of his five field goals. Beyond an occasional spot start, it’s best if he’s left on the waiver wire.

Here’s more fantasy analysis and notes from around the league:

• Kent Bazemore re-signed with the Hawks on a massive $70MM deal during the offseason, but he has failed to live up to expectations. Don’t expect his fantasy value to rise too much with Korver out of the picture. Bazemore’s problem isn’t opportunity, it’s a lack of efficiency. He’s shooting the ball more this season than he was last year, though he’s only making a career-low 37.0% of his attempts. Despite the potential for a slightly bigger role, he’s not worth a valuable roster spot at the moment.
• Tim Hardaway is the player most likely to benefit from the Korver trade. He’s seeing about four more minutes per game than he was prior to the deal and he’s averaging 17.2 points per game over his last five contests. He’s not a must-own player, but he’s serviceable as a streaming option. He’s available in over 88% of ESPN leagues.
• Keep tabs on Clint Capela. The center fractured his left fibula in mid-December and was expected to miss 4-6 weeks. The projected timeline puts him at about halfway through his recovery, though it could take longer for him to regain the role he had with the Rockets prior to being injured. Capela had the third best field goal percentage and had the 10th most blocks per game among centers during the first two months of the season, as I mentioned in a previous edition of Fantasy Hoops.

The 2016/17 campaign is entering its eleventh week and Hoops Rumors is examining the fantasy basketball landscape in order to help you dominate the competition. Check back weekly for more fantasy basketball analysis.

Tyler Johnson’s Value

The Nets shocked the basketball community when they signed Tyler Johnson to an offer sheet worth $50MM over four years. The move was seen as an overpay, but that sometimes comes with the restricted free agency territory, as teams have to find ways to discourage the incumbent team from matching. Many thought the offer meant that Johnson, a player who only played 36 games last season, would find his way to Brooklyn, but the Heat decided to match and give the 24-year-old an increased role. So far this season, it appears the team made the right decision.

The Heat are struggling, but Johnson isn’t the reason why. He’s one of five shooting guards seeing at least 30 minutes per game to have a positive rating on both the offensive and defensive end, according ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus. He’s making 39.1% of his shots from behind the arc, though his increased role has led to a dip in his overall field goal percentage.

Johnson missed tonight’s game against the Suns with a migraine, marking only the third time this season he’s been out of the lineup. The combo guard was playing well entering the contest. He averaged 17.1 points, 4.0 assists and 1.3 steals per game over his last seven. He also added two 3-pointers and nearly a block per contest.

Goran Dragic was sidelined in three of those games and he was hindered in parts of others due to back pain. Dragic may be on the trade block and if the team deals the point guard, Johnson’s fantasy value could see a substantial boost.

Johnson is available in over 43% of ESPN leagues and he’s worth adding for both his production now and his potential to take on an even bigger role of the offense later in the season.

Here’s more fantasy analysis and notes from around the league:

• The Bulls benched Rajon Rondo and he will reportedly seek a trade if he doesn’t see playing time. If he’s dealt, he could actually see a nice bump in value. His usage rate with the Bulls is his lowest since his rookie season and that’s due in part to the presence of Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler. A new team may give him an opportunity to regain his status as a fantasy starter. If you can afford to wait out the situation, leave Rondo on your bench rather than dropping him, though taking the latter approach is a defensible action.
• Michael Carter-Williams is starting in place of Rondo, but he’s not necessarily a must-own commodity. MCW won’t provide much 3-point shooting and he will certainly hurt your team in the field goal percentage category. However, he will add value in several other categories, such as steals, blocks, assists and rebounds, and he’s a nice streaming option in the right match-up.
• Ersan Ilyasova continues to be useful for the Sixers and for fantasy purposes. He scored 19 points while shooting 50% from the field in tonight’s game against the Wolves. On Friday, Philadelphia will take on Boston, a team that is allowing the most points and eighth best field goal percentage to opposing forwards over their last five games.

The 2016/17 campaign is entering its tenth week and Hoops Rumors is examining the fantasy basketball landscape in order to help you dominate the competition. Check back weekly for more fantasy basketball analysis.

 Orlando’s Ace Off The Bench

The Magic’s offseason was filled with change, but the team planned on bringing back Elfrid Payton–their incumbent starting point–in hopes that he would continue to progress as a player and give the team some consistency. Payton struggled to begin the season, which provoked the organization to make another change: moving him to the bench.

The move has been mildly successful for the team, as Orlando owns a record of 9-8 since coach Frank Vogel re-adjusted the line-up, but it has brought even more success for Payton. Since moving to the second unit, the point guard is making 51.4% of his shots, up from the 43.0% he was making as a starter, and he’s averaging more points and assists per game than he was before.

Payton has always produced in the steals and assists categories, but his field goal percentage was detrimental to his value. Playing against opposing teams’ back-up point guards for portions of each game has allowed him to boost his offensive efficiency, similar to what Eric Gordon is experiencing in Houston.

He’s been particularly impressive over his last five games. He’s scoring 17.2 points per game on 58.3% shooting while adding 5.8 assists and a steal per game over that span. However, it’s worth noting that the team was missing Evan Fournier for two of those games, which led to a bigger role for the point guard.

Payton has become a fantasy asset and he should continue to be useful as long as his role doesn’t change too much. The team reportedly has interest in dealing him, as it may look to make even more changes, and if he’s dealt, his value will be dependent on what type of situation he’s looking at. If the Magic give Payton the starting spot back, or he’s dealt to a team that’s looking for a starter, his production is likely to be less efficient and his fantasy stock is likely to drop. Until then, enjoy his production and if he’s not owned in your league (available in over 30% of ESPN leagues), add him before Wednesday’s match-up against the Hornets.

Here’s more fantasy analysis and notes from around the league:

• T.J. Warren, a player whom I wrote about earlier in the month, is still available in over half of ESPN leagues and that number should be much lower. The Suns are second in the league in pace this season, but the team is playing even faster when Warren is in the line-up. With him on the floor, the team is seeing nearly four more possessions per 48 minutes than when he sits. Before he was sidelined with a head injury, the small forward was a top-10 fantasy player at his position, in part because of the speed at which the team plays, and he’s starting to regain his form again.
• Last week, Stan Van Gundy threatened that changes were coming for the Pistons. Since then, the coach moved Tobias Harris to the bench and it has helped the forward’s production. He’s scoring 23.5 points per game while shooting 53.6% from the field over his last two contests.
• Van Gundy inserted free agent addition Jon Leuer in the starting line-up and the big man is also enjoying success. He’s shooting 51.1% from the field this season and he’s making 89.1% of his foul shots, a spectacular number for a big man. The power forward is available in nearly 70% of ESPN leagues.
• The Mavericks signed Pierre Jackson earlier today. While the point guard is a scoring machine, his defense may keep him from seeing many minutes for the club. He’ll need to improve on that end of the floor if he is going to carve out a meaningful role with Dallas and he shouldn’t be on the fantasy radar until that happens.

The 2016/17 campaign is entering its ninth week and Hoops Rumors is examining the fantasy basketball landscape in order to help you dominate the competition. Check back weekly for more fantasy basketball analysis.

Opportunity Awaits In Houston

The Rockets will be without Clint Capela for at least the next four weeks as he recovers from a fracture in his left fibula. The third-year center was having a nice fantasy season prior to being ruled out. He was grabbing 8.0 rebounds (the 13th most among centers) and blocking 1.57 shots (10th most) per game while knocking down 64.0% of his shots (third best).

His excellent production is partly due to his elevated role and his progression as a player, but he’s also a product of Mike D’Antoni‘s pick-and-roll system. The Rockets play fast, ranking in the top 10 in pace this season, and they shoot 38.9 3-pointers per game, by far the most in the league. With so many long-range shooters surrounding Capela, opposing defenses couldn’t crowd the paint, making it easier for the big man to roll to the basket. Whoever takes over the big man’s role during his absence will be in good position to become a fantasy producer.

Houston is reportedly sniffing the market for a big man and should the team acquire another center, it would be an intriguing addition from a fantasy perspective. Nerlens Noel, whom Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors profiled as a trade candidate, would be a fascinating fit in this system. His defensive ability, coupled with his potential role in the Rockets’ high-paced offense, would produce a monster fantasy asset.

If the team doesn’t make a deal, look for Montrezl Harrell, Nene, and Ryan Anderson all to see increased roles. Nene, who’s the best pick-and-roll big man among the team’s healthy options, started at center for the Rockets in tonight’s loss against the Spurs, but Harrell relieved him after just five minutes of action. Harrell, who has a much higher fantasy ceiling than Nene, saw four more minutes than the Brazilian center did over the course of the game. Anderson spent time at the center position as well, squaring up against LaMarcus Aldridge when the Spurs put the 31-year-old on the floor as their five. Anderson was on the court for 37 minutes tonight, which is about 6.5 more minutes than his season average. The forward had a ho-hum game, scoring only seven points on eight shot attempts and he brought in just six boards. The lack of production was likely due to the bad match-up, as San Antonio has allowed the fifth fewest points, third fewest rebounds and sixth worst field percentage to opposing forwards this season, so expect better numbers going forward.

If the Rockets continue to utilize Anderson this way, he becomes more valuable over the next several weeks, while Harrell and Nene become useful in the right match-ups.

Here’s more fantasy analysis and notes from around the league:

• Gary Harris is a player worth adding. He’s back in the starting lineup, averaging 19.3 points and 1.7 steals per contest over his last three games. The Nuggets rank sixth in the league in pace and Harris is taking advantage of the extra possessions.
• The Blazers, a team rumored to have interest in trading for Noel, have really struggled defensively this season, particularly against the center position lately. Portland has allowed the third most points and the fourth best field goal percentage to opposing centers over the last 10 games.
• Dewayne Dedmon could be a nice streaming option over the next two weeks. On Thursday, the Spurs will take on the Clippers, which is not a plus match-up, but after that tilt, their schedule gets softer. Over their ensuing five games, San Antonio will take on the Blazers twice, in addition to the Suns (allowing the second most points and third best field goal percentage to opposing centers over their last 10 games), Hawks (allowing the fifth best field goal percentage), and Bulls (allowing seventh most rebounds).

The 2016/17 campaign is entering its eighth week and Hoops Rumors is examining the fantasy basketball landscape in order to help you dominate the competition.  Check back weekly for more fantasy basketball analysis.

The Grizzlies Keep Grinding

Memphis underwent drastic changes during the offseason with an eye on playing faster. The team brought in several athletic wings and moved Zach Randolph to the bench. David Fizdale‘s arrival in Memphis was supposedly going to change the basketball culture, transitioning the team to a style of play that fits in with the modern NBA.

The Grizzlies are again winning games this season, but it’s not because of a change in style of play. It’s because the team is reverting to its old identity. One of the keys to the Grizzlies’ success is their suffocating defense, as they showcased in their blowout win over the Warriors on Saturday night. Memphis leads the league in defensive efficiency and entering Tuesday’s contests, the team was tied for the league lead in opponent field goal percentage, allowing just 43.1 % of opposing shots to hit the bottom of the net.

The team’s slow, methodical style of play helps the defense arrive at these outstanding metrics. Entering Tuesday, Memphis’ pace factor is 95.7, which is identical to its factor last season. As a result, opposing teams are seeing less offensive opportunity against the Grizzlies than they are against most other teams.

Opposing centers are having a particularly hard time against the team this season, something that comes at no surprise given Marc Gasol‘s defensive ability. Memphis is allowing just 14.1 points to opposing centers, a figure which leads the league, according to Rotowire. Opposing centers are only making 45.4% of their shots, which ranks second in the league, and Memphis is causing opposing centers to turn the ball over 3.7 times per contest (only the Rockets and Suns cause more turnovers to the position).

With a different version of their grit and grind team, the Grizzlies are thriving yet again this season. Despite all the injuries, the team remains a defensive force; one to avoid in fantasy basketball match-ups.

Here’s more fantasy analysis from around the league:

• The Grizzlies are utilizing Gasol more than ever this season, as his career high 26.9 usage rate indicates. He’s averaging career highs in points (19.9) and assists (4.1) per game and he’s added the 3-ball to his arsenal, knocking down 1.6 shots per game from behind the arc. Those are great numbers, but his play while Conley has been out has been even more remarkable. Over his last six games (contests in which Conley has been sidelined), he took control of the offense, averaging 25.5 points and 5.3 assists per game, while shooting 50.9% from the field. He’ll likely maintain this role while Conley misses games, so he’ll be even more valuable to fantasy owners over the next several weeks.
• Ricky Rubio, whom Dana Gauruder of Hoops Rumors profiled as a trade candidate, remains a plus defender, per ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus, but he hasn’t been as effective on that end of the floor as he’s been in the past. In fact, the Wolves haven’t defended opposing point guards very well lately. Minnesota has allowed the most points to the position over the last ten games and opposing point guards are shooting 49.8% from the field during that span, a figure that ranks fourth worst in the league.
• The Hawks are having their own issues guarding opposing point guards. Over the last ten games, Atlanta has been an excellent match-up, allowing the most rebounds, the second-most points, and the seventh-most assists per game to the position.
• Last week, we discussed Jeremy Lin‘s potential fantasy impact. On Monday, Lin returned to the court and had a solid game, notching 10 points and seven assists in 20 minutes of action. He’ll likely remain on a minute count, but it won’t be long until he regains the Nets’ starting point guard spot. He’s still available in over 40% of ESPN leagues; Pick him up if he’s available in yours.

The first quarter of the 2016/17 campaign is just about in the books and Hoops Rumors is examining the fantasy basketball landscape in order to help you win your league.  Check back weekly for more fantasy basketball analysis.

Fantasy Goodness In Brooklyn

Trevor Booker signed with the Nets on a two-year, $18MM deal over the summer knowing he would not be competing for a title or even a playoff berth. He believed in what new GM Sean Marks was building and wanted to help the franchise build a winning culture. “I was comfortable with the whole situation,” Booker said “I bought into what they are doing.”

Booker took control of Brooklyn’s starting power forward position, something that wasn’t a given entering the season, and in the process, he has become a valuable fantasy asset. Booker has been solid in pretty much every category this season. He’s knocked down 54.8% of his shots this season, which is second in the league among power forwards and when he gets to the line, he’s nailing 75.0% of those attempts. The 28-year-old is averaging career highs in points, rebounds and assists per game and he has more steals per game than any big man not named Draymond Green.

The production should continue because of the Nets’ style of play. New head coach Kenny Atkinson previously worked under Mike Budenholzer, a disciple of Gregg Popovich, and has implemented many of the Spurs’ concepts into his offense. The Nets rank second in the league in pace—a metric which measures possessions per 48 minutes. That’s up drastically from last season, where the team was tied with the sluggish Pistons for 20^th in the league.

Booker has been Paul Millsap-like this season, quietly notching solid games on a nightly basis. He’s owned in slightly less than two-thirds of ESPN leagues, but that figure should be much higher. As the season progresses and the Nets lose more games, Booker runs the risk of seeing his minutes reduced, as the team will likely look to give its younger guys more run. Until then, fantasy owners should enjoy his success and he should be in lineups every time the Nets play.

Here’s more fantasy analysis from around the league:

• Keep an eye on Jeremy Lin‘s status. There’s no timetable on his return to the lineup, though Marks said (via the team’s Facebook page) that he suspects it’ll be “pretty soon.” Lin, who signed with the Nets on a three-year, $36MM deal over the summer, thrived during the first couple weeks of the season before suffering a hamstring injury. He accumulated 15.0 points, 6.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game while shooting a respectable 44.8% from the field. Now is the time to stash him, as the Nets’ style of play will make him a valuable fantasy contributor so long as he’s healthy enough to play.
• The Grizzlies signed Toney Douglas on Monday, but he shouldn’t be on the fantasy radar just yet. Andrew Harrison currently carries the most value among the team’s guards. He’s a streaming option while Mike Conley remains sidelined.
• Keep tabs on T.J. Warren, who’s available in 59% of ESPN leagues, as he was a top-12 small forward before a head injury sidelined him. He doesn’t have a timetable for his return, though he took part in some on-court drills today. The Suns lead the league in pace and Warren is a natural scorer who can take advantage of the extra possessions.
• Jamal Murray had a sound game against the Sixers on Monday night and he’s a nice streaming option this week. The Nuggets will take on the Nets on Wednesday before traveling to Washington on Thursday.