Five Key Offseason Questions

Five Key Offseason Questions: Portland Trail Blazers

May 9th, 2017 at 3:50pm CST by Luke Adams

After a successful 2015/16 campaign that included a first-round playoff victory over the Clippers, the Trail Blazers kept their roster intact by retaining restricted free agents like Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard, and Maurice Harkless. However, those players didn’t take major steps forward in 2016/17, and the team’s outside free agent additions – Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli – failed to have the desired impact.

A mid-season trade for a first-round pick and Jusuf Nurkic, who averaged a double-double in his 20 games for Portland, was a slick move by president Neil Olshey and the front office, and helped the team earn a postseason spot. However, the Blazers were quickly dispatched by the top-seeded Warriors and will now head into the offseason with more guaranteed 2017/18 money on their books than any other NBA club.

Here are five questions facing the Blazers as they enter the offseason…

1. What moves can the Blazers to make to reduce their payroll?

As detailed below, the Blazers currently have more than $133MM in guaranteed salaries on their books for 2017/18, which is a staggering amount, considering the tax threshold projects to be about $121MM. Standing pat with a roster that is set to go deep into tax territory after earning a No. 8 seed probably isn’t a viable option for Olshey, so trades will have to be considered.

The most obvious trade candidates on the Blazers’ roster are guys like Crabbe and Turner, whose 2017/18 salaries total more than $36MM combined. But coming off mediocre seasons, those players aren’t exactly hot commodities right now, and their long-term contracts would be viewed as a burden by most teams. Players in the $7-10MM range like Harkless, Leonard, and Al-Farouq Aminu would likely be more movable, but won’t exactly inspire bidding wars either.

Complicating matters is the fact that the Blazers won’t be able to take on much salary in return in any hypothetical deal, assuming their goal is to cut costs. That would rule out many over-the-cap teams as trade partners, and after last summer’s league-wide spending spree, there aren’t nearly as many teams this summer projected to remain under the cap as their were in 2016.

Of course, the two most expensive players on the Blazers’ roster are also two of the players with the most trade value. That leads us to our second question…

2. Can a Damian Lillard/C.J. McCollum backcourt work long-term?

McCollum’s new contract will go into effect this summer, meaning he’ll earn nearly $24MM, with Lillard making more than $26MM. Some NBA observers are skeptical that Portland can become a legit contender without breaking up the backcourt, and moving one of Lillard or McCollum would go a long way toward reducing the Blazers’ cap issues — not to mention likely landing the club a legitimately valuable piece or two in return.

Still, asked last month about the possibility of trading one of his two high-scoring guards, Olshey all but ruled out the possibility. And while it’s probably true that he wouldn’t tell reporters if he were considering such a move, Olshey sounded genuine as he explained his reasoning.

“The odds of anything ever coming up of commensurate value is so hard to even fathom,” Olshey said at the time. “I could give you the trite answer that nobody is untradable, but clearly they are.”

While there are long-term concerns about the lack of size and the defensive ability of a Lillard/McCollum backcourt, the Blazers could look to the Wizards as a source of hope — a year ago, there was speculation that John Wall or Bradley Beal needed to be moved in order for Washington to thrive. Now, the Wizards are two wins away from earning a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

3. How will the Blazers use their draft picks?

The Blazers cleverly nabbed a pair of extra first-round picks in trades with the Cavaliers and Nuggets this year, recognizing that this year’s draft class would be deep. Portland won’t have a lottery pick at its disposal, but with the 15th, 20th, and 26th overall selections under control, the team has some options.

The club’s cap situation will play a crucial role in determining how these picks are used. If the Blazers need to attach a first-round pick to an expensive multiyear contract in a trade, they have the flexibility to lose one selection while retaining two others. If they keep all three picks, they may use a couple of them to select draft-and-stash players, recognizing that even adding rookie contracts to their books right now would be an expensive proposition if they remain in the tax.

The Blazers may not land a star with any of those first-round picks, but they could become very useful currency as the team explores its offseason options.

4. Is Noah Vonleh a part of the Blazers’ future?

Vonley appeared in 74 contests for Portland in 2016/17, starting 41 of those games and averaging 17.1 MPG. The former ninth overall pick showed some signs of promise in his part-time role for the team, increasing his field-goal percentage to a career-best 48.1% and grabbing 5.2 RPG. But his overall impact was still quite limited.

Vonleh is still only 21 years old, and it can take time for young players to develop into consistent contributors — Nurkic, who was selected seven spots after Vonleh in 2014 and didn’t break out until this year, is a good example of that. Nonetheless, Vonleh is entering the final year of his rookie contract, so the Blazers will soon have decide whether it’s time to move on from the Indiana product or whether he deserves a longer look.

5. Can Jusuf Nurkic be extended this offseason?

Like Vonleh, Nurkic is entering the last year of his rookie deal, meaning he’ll be eligible for a new contract as of July 1. That puts the Blazers in a somewhat tricky spot.

Nurkic’s performance down the stretch demonstrated that he’s the sort of player Portland should want to lock up for years to come, but he only played 20 games, and the end of his season was cut short by a broken leg. With so many pricey contracts on their books already, the Blazers may not be in a rush to finalize a new long-term agreement with Nurkic when he’s coming off a quarter-season audition and a major injury.

Fortunately, the Blazers will have time to consider its options with Nurkic. The deadline for an extension won’t arrive until late-August, at which point Portland should have a better idea of how his leg has recovered and how the team’s cap situation looks going forward. And even if the two sides don’t reach an agreement at that point, the Blazers will have the right of first refusal in 2018 when Nurkic reaches restricted free agency.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Trail Blazers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Damian Lillard ($26,153,057)
C.J. McCollum ($23,962,573)
Allen Crabbe ($19,332,500)
Evan Turner ($17,131,148)
Maurice Harkless ($10,162,922)
Meyers Leonard ($9,904,495)
Al-Farouq Aminu ($7,319,035)
Ed Davis ($6,352,531)
Noah Vonleh ($3,505,233)
Jusuf Nurkic ($2,947,305)
Shabazz Napier ($2,361,360)
Anderson Varejao ($1,984,005) — Waived via stretch provision.
Jake Layman ($1,312,611)
Festus Ezeli ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $133,428,775

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Festus Ezeli ($6,733,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Pat Connaughton ($1,471,382)²
Tim Quarterman ($1,312,611)
Total: $9,516,993

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

No. 15 overall pick ($2,365,560)
No. 20 overall pick ($1,859,400)
No. 26 overall pick ($1,465,920)
Total: $5,690,880

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: –$38,119,655

Portland has an extraordinary amount of money tied up in guaranteed salaries for next season. If the Blazers were to waive all their players on non-guaranteed salaries, the club’s remaining salaries for 2017/18 – along with cap holds for first-round draft picks – would total $139,119,655, a figure that would be well above the tax line. Trades to clear some salary are possible, but the Blazers are a virtual lock to remain over the cap this offseason.

Footnotes:

Ezeli’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Connaughton’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 25.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Indiana Pacers

May 3rd, 2017 at 4:54pm CST by Luke Adams

Coming off a 45-win season a year ago, the Pacers replaced head coach Frank Vogel with Nate McMillan and overhauled their roster, adding Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson, and Thaddeus Young last summer. The moves made Indiana a popular sleeper pick in the Eastern Conference at the start of the season, but the club struggled to perform consistently and finished with a 42-40 record. That mark landed the Pacers seventh in the East, which resulted in a first-round sweep at the hands of the defending champions from Cleveland.

Suddenly, the future in Indiana doesn’t look so bright, and the Pacers’ offseason kicked off with news that Larry Bird has decided to step down as the team’s president. The Pacers now find themselves at a crossroads. Here are five questions facing the club as it embarks on a crucial offseason…

1. What does the post-Bird era in Indiana look like?

With the exception of the 2012/13 season, which he took off for health reasons, Bird has been the Pacers’ president of basketball operations since 2003. The team still has plenty of highly qualified executives in its front office, led by new top decision-maker Kevin Pritchard, but with Bird no longer making the basketball decisions in Indiana, the team’s roster moves may look a little different going forward.

For instance, reports around the trade deadline – and before that – suggested that Bird was strongly in favor of retaining Paul George and would do everything he could to lock up the star forward to a long-term deal with the Pacers. That report at the trade deadline indicated it was Pacers ownership that encouraged the front office to explore all its options with George.

With Bird no longer in the mix, will the team’s stance on George change?

2. What’s next for Paul George?

That leads us to our second issue, which revolves around the Pacers’ star forward, who is under contract for two more years but can opt out in 2018. There are a number of questions the team must address before determining its next step with George, and one of those questions will be answered by many of the reporters, broadcasters, and analysts that cover the NBA.

Those media members are responsible for voting on the All-NBA teams, and whether or not George earns a spot on this year’s teams could have a huge impact on his future in Indiana — if he’s named an All-NBA player, the 27-year-old would be eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, a more lucrative contract which he wouldn’t be able to sign with another team if he’s traded.

Still, even if George nabs an All-NBA spot, that doesn’t guarantee anything. As we saw with the Kings and DeMarcus Cousins, even if a team is eligible to give its star player a Designated Veteran Extension, that doesn’t mean the team will want to do it. The Pacers have been unable to build a title contender around George in recent years — signing him to a long-term contract worth 35% of the cap wouldn’t make things any easier, so the club will have a lot to think about before making that kind of commitment.

On the other hand, if George becomes eligible for that deal, it’s possible he’d view anything less than a max offer (which would exceed $200MM over five years) as a sign of disrespect — even if it’s still more than he could make by signing with another team.

The possibility of a Designated Veteran Extension will play a role in George’s possible future in Indiana, but it won’t be the only factor. Ultimately, it will come down to how badly both sides want to continue the relationship. If there’s reluctance on either side, it might make sense for the Pacers to explore the trade market for George this summer, rather than risk losing him for nothing a year from now.

3. Will Jeff Teague be back?

The Pacers will likely have a few veterans eligible for free agency this July, but none are more important than Teague, who was his usual reliable and productive self during his first year in Indiana. The Pacers could have landed a 2016 lottery pick when they traded George Hill last summer, but opted for Teague instead, so losing the Indianapolis native after one year wouldn’t be a great use of assets. But after earning just $8.8MM in 2016/17, Teague has a chance to double that annual salary on his next deal, which would significantly cut into the Pacers’ cap room. Without any viable in-house options ready to step up to replace Teague, Indiana may have to pony up.

4. What will the Pacers do with their first-round pick?

In the week leading up to the trade deadline, the Pacers were said to be dangling their first-round pick as they attempted to find some reinforcements for George and the rest of the roster. Bird didn’t find a deal he liked at the time, but perhaps Pritchard will, assuming he decides to take the same approach.

Of course, as valuable as first-round selections are to NBA teams these days, the No. 18 pick won’t bring back a star, and if the Pacers decide to move that pick for a player, it likely means keeping George and committing to contending in 2017/18. There’s no guarantee yet that Indiana will go that route — if the team opts to retool its roster, it might make more sense to keep that pick and use it to nab a young player from a draft class that is considered deep and talented.

5. Is is time to rebuild?

That brings us to our final question, which is the one that looms over each of the first four. Are the Pacers ready to rebuild, or do they think they have the building blocks in place here to construct a contender? If they were to opt for a rebuild, the Pacers would likely find the best trade possible for George, let Teague walk, add at least one more 2017 first-round pick to their current selection, and build around young center Myles Turner.

The prospect of a rebuild is a daunting one, but if teams like the Celtics, Lakers, and Sixers – all logical landing spots for George – luck out in the lottery and secure top draft picks, the Pacers could receive some interesting trade offers, perhaps even leading to a bidding war. Given the outcome of the team’s 2016/17 campaign, it appears the current roster doesn’t just need a tweak or two — it needs bigger changes. It remains to be seen whether that means going all-in on contending in an effort to keep George, or moving him and launching a full-scale rebuild, but either way, it may be a very eventful offseason in Indiana.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pacers financially: