Five Key Offseason Questions

Five Key Offseason Questions: New York Knicks

May 28th, 2019 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

One of the NBA’s most iconic franchises, the Knicks have also been one of the league’s most dysfunctional in recent years. They’re set to enter a crucial offseason after having won between 17 and 32 games in each of the last five seasons.

Having been unable to put together a core of promising young building blocks during their on-again, off-again rebuild over those five years, the Knicks will rely on other assets to improve the roster during the summer of 2019. With a handful of extra future first-round picks in hand and more cap room available than any other NBA team, New York theoretically has the resources necessary to sign two maximum-salary free agents and acquire a third one in a trade.

After months of speculation about which players the Knicks might be able to actually land, we’ll get our answer in the coming weeks.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will Kevin Durant sign with the Knicks?

Durant himself has given no indication that he’s dead set on leaving the Warriors or that he has a specific destination in mind when he reaches the free agent market this offseason. But based on how the NBA rumor mill works, there’s a widespread belief that the Knicks are already preparing to print thousands of No. 35 jerseys for the 2019/20 season. Reports all season from outlets across the county have indicated that NBA insiders expect Durant to end up in the Big Apple.

Whispers of Durant leaving Oklahoma City for Golden State persisted throughout the second half of the 2015/16 season, and the idea that LeBron James would leave Cleveland for the Lakers was a constant source of speculation leading up to his 2018 free agency. Those are just two high-profile examples of why we should take all the rumors linking Durant to the Knicks seriously.

Even in instances where the NBA’s rumor mill doesn’t necessarily get it right, there can be plenty of warning signs along the way pointing to the eventual outcome. Last summer, for instance, there was a widespread belief that Paul George wanted to join the Lakers, but sourced reports in the weeks and months leading up to his free agency repeatedly stated that the Thunder remained very confident in their ability to re-sign him. If you didn’t discount those reports as misguided optimism, you weren’t surprised by George’s eventual decision to stay in Oklahoma City.

All of this is to say that where there’s smoke, there’s probably fire — those Knicks rumors are coming from somewhere, and there’s reason for New York basketball fans to be excited about the possibility of their team signing Durant.

Still, until Durant puts pen to paper, this is far from a done deal. Since the regular season ended, there have been reports suggesting that uncertainty about Durant’s future has increased, along with reports indicating that the Warriors are still getting a sense that KD might stay. If he doesn’t choose the Knicks, we could be looking back at those stories as the warning signs we missed.

2. How about Kyrie Irving or Kemba Walker?

Durant’s decision is at the top of the Knicks’ offseason flowchart — depending on whether or not he signs with the team, the offseason may head in drastically different directions, as that decision will have a ripple effect on the rest of New York’s offseason moves.

The point guard question is the second item on that hypothetical flowchart. If Durant decides to play in New York, it seems likely that he’ll bring another top free agent along with him, and Irving and Walker look like two of the most logical fits. Kyrie is good friends with KD, while Walker is a New York native who would likely relish the idea of playing his home games in Madison Square Garden.

The Nets, Lakers, Clippers, and other teams – including the Celtics for Irving and the Hornets for Walker – will also be in the mix for these two point guards, and if one of the two commits to another club, the Knicks figure to zero in on the other. But as long as both players are available, it will be interesting to see which one the team pursues more aggressively.

Given his injury history and his drama-filled season in Boston, Irving no longer appears to be as safe as investment as Walker, but his on-court upside is much higher. Plus, if Durant commits to the Knicks and says he wants to team up with Irving specifically, the team probably won’t argue with him.

If Durant doesn’t come to New York, the Knicks’ outlook at this spot gets even murkier. Is it still worth pursing Irving and/or Walker, perhaps to pair with another second-tier target like Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, or Khris Middleton? That brings us to our third question…

3. What’s Plan B if the Knicks don’t land their top free agent targets?

With the Knicks apparently targeting some combination of Durant and either Irving or Walker, their Plan A looks obvious: Sign two of those free agents and trade the necessary pieces to New Orleans for Anthony Davis to secure a new Big Three.

But what if the Knicks only get a commitment from one of their top free agent targets? What if another team outbids them for Davis? The Knicks could find themselves with one established star set to join a group of unproven young prospects, with upwards of $35MM in cap room still available. In other words, they’d be a poor man’s version of the 2018/19 Lakers.

At that point, the Knicks would have to decide how best to use that remaining cap room to maximize their chances of contending in the long term.

Could they, as the Lakers did, sign a series of veteran free agents to one-year contracts to fill out the roster and try to contend right away? Would it make more sense to invest the rest of their cap room into a single free agent, even if that player is only a borderline All-Star and wasn’t their top target? Or should they go the other direction and take things slow by using their cap room to acquire unwanted contracts and extra assets to try to accumulate even more capital for a future trade for a star?

Free agency will move quickly and these decisions won’t be easy, but the Knicks would be wise to avoid massive investments on second-tier free agents. Using cap room to accommodate salary dumps or one-year contracts would be disappointing, but it would at least allow the club to retain its flexibility and take another swing at big targets in a year or two.

4. How strong is the Knicks’ Anthony Davis trade package?

Whether they sign two star free agents or strike out entirely on the open market – or anything in between – the Knicks could make a play for Davis, aiming to secure a long-term commitment from him when he becomes eligible for free agency in 2020.

In theory, the Knicks should have a handful of players who would make good trade chips in an offer for Davis. Of their four players on guaranteed contracts for 2019/20, three (Dennis Smith, Frank Ntilikina, and Kevin Knox) are top-10 picks from the last two drafts, and the fourth (Mitchell Robinson) is arguably a more promising prospect than all of them.

Still, the most intriguing player in a potential Knicks offer might be one that’s not actually on their roster yet. With the No. 3 pick in the 2019 draft, the club is in position to select Duke forward R.J. Barrett. Once considered the odds-on favorite to be selected first in this year’s draft, Barrett had more ups and downs than expected in his freshman year as part of a Blue Devils roster that lacked outside shooting, and was surpassed on big boards by Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

Still, Barrett is a potential star who would be on a rookie contract for four years and then would likely be under team control for another four or five. When a club trades away an established All-Star, the winning offer is generally headlined by one player that the club likes more than any other asset available in other offers. There’s no guarantee that the Pelicans feel that way about Barrett instead of, say, Jayson Tatum. But if they do, the Knicks would have a real shot at winning the Davis sweepstakes.

5. Which of the Knicks’ young players are worth investing in?

If the Knicks’ dream scenario – two star free agents and a Davis trade – plays out, this question may be moot. After all, the team would have to trade just about all its young prospects in order to match Davis’ salary.

In any other scenario though, the club will have to take a long, hard look at players like Smith, Ntilikina, Knox, Damyean Dotson, Allonzo Trier, and others to determine whether it’s realistic to expect them to be part of the Knicks’ long-term future.

Those decisions won’t have to be made right away in every case, but many of them are due soon. Trier has a club option for 2019/20, while Dotson has a non-guaranteed salary for next season before reaching restricted free agency in 2020. Smith and Ntilikina will be extension-eligible in 2020 if their ’20/21 options are exercised.

The 2018/19 season should have been the time to evaluate many of these players, but inconsistent lineups made the outlook murkier than ever for many of them. The point guard rotation, for instance, featured plenty of Emmanuel Mudiay and Trey Burke at the expense of Ntilikina.

While Ntilikina is still just 20 years old and may have untapped potential, he’ll reportedly be on the trade block this offseason. If the Knicks are willing to move on from the former No. 8 pick after just two seasons, the clock is ticking on prospects like Knox and Smith as well.

Check out the New York Knicks’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Minnesota Timberwolves

May 23rd, 2019 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Things seemed to be on the upswing for the Timberwolves in 2017/18, when the team snapped a 13-year postseason drought, winning 47 games and winning a playoff game for the first time since 2004. However, that positive momentum came to a halt last fall, when Jimmy Butler‘s trade demand disrupted and derailed the Wolves’ season before it began.

Butler was eventually traded to Philadelphia, but Minnesota was never really in the playoff hunt in 2018/19, and Tom Thibodeau‘s handling of the Butler saga ultimately led to his dismissal. Heading into the 2019 offseason, the Wolves now employ a new president of basketball operations (Gersson Rosas) and a new permanent head coach (Ryan Saunders) as the organization looks to get back on track and resume contending for the postseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Which players will Gersson Rosas view as keepers?

When a team overhauls its front office, that doesn’t necessarily mean a roster overhaul will follow. But executives generally have stronger attachments to players that they’ve drafted, signed, or traded for than the ones they’ve inherited.

This will be the first time Rosas has decision-making power in an NBA front office. While his long stint in Houston’s front office is somewhat instructive, we’ll be learning for the first time in the next year or two what sort of players he likes, and which Timberwolves players fit that bill.

The front office changes in Minnesota are unlikely to impact someone like Karl-Anthony Towns, who would be a franchise cornerstone no matter who is running the team. But how invested will Rosas be in players like Robert Covington and Dario Saric? They were the key assets the team received in return for Butler last fall and would still have positive trade value if Rosas isn’t attached to them. Assuming he likes them, they could become long-term building blocks for the Timberwolves.

Rosas’ evaluation of the players on his new roster will impact young prospects under contract (like Josh Okogie and Keita Bates-Diop) and veteran free agents (such as Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson) alike, so it should be an interesting summer in Minnesota as Rosas gets his first opportunity to oversee a series of roster moves.

2. What does the future hold for Andrew Wiggins?

Of all the Timberwolves players whose futures will be dictated by Rosas’ moves, Wiggins is the biggest wild card. The former No. 1 overall pick is under contract for four more years and $122MM+, and given his up-and-down play over the last couple years, there won’t be teams lining up around the league to take that contract off Minnesota’s hands.

It’s unlikely that the Wolves would want to give up the assets necessary to dump Wiggins’ salary while his value is at a low point. So whether they want him to be part of the long-term plan in Minnesota or simply want to rebuild his value, Rosas and particularly Saunders will have to work on developing Wiggins into the sort of dynamic two-way wing that many observers expected him to become out of Kansas.

While Wiggins was inconsistent even after Butler’s and Thibodeau’s respective departures, he showed flashes of upside in the second half. Out from under Butler’s shadow, and with Saunders perhaps coming up with more creative ways to utilize him, there’s optimism that Wiggins – who is still just 24 years old – has more to give the Wolves. The 2019/20 season represents a huge year for him.

3. Was retaining Ryan Saunders the right call?

Saunders, who was initially named the interim head coach in the wake of Thibodeau’s firing, remained in limbo for several weeks after the regular season ended. As the Timberwolves sought a new head of basketball operations, there were rumors that team ownership hoped the eventual hire would retain Saunders as the head coach.

Upon being hired, Rosas briefly opened his own head coaching search, but it didn’t last long. Less than a week after word broke that the Wolves were considering outside options, the club officially made Saunders its permanent head coach.

The fact that ownership was pushing for Saunders doesn’t mean he wouldn’t have been Rosas’ pick anyway. And the fact that Minnesota’s head coaching search didn’t last long doesn’t mean that the team didn’t do its due diligence.

Still, retaining the 33-year-old, who will be the league’s youngest active head coach, is a bit of a risk. Saunders has worked as an NBA assistant for a decade, but he was hired by his late father Flip Saunders in both Washington and Minnesota, his only two stops. Ryan’s coaching acumen will be put to the test in a big way over the next year or two, as he’ll be tasked with helping young players like Towns, Wiggins, and Okogie reach their full potential.

By all accounts, those players and the rest of the Wolves are fond of Saunders, which is one key reason why he was brought back. Still, the club will need to see on-court success from its young head coach before too long.

4. How will the Timberwolves address their point guard position?

With Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose, Tyus Jones, and Jerryd Bayless all under contract in 2018/19, the Wolves had no shortage of point guards available, though second-half injuries took a toll on the group. Minnesota’s outlook at the position is a little murkier going forward.

Bayless, an unrestricted free agent, probably isn’t part of the Wolves’ future plans. Rose is also an unrestricted free agent, and while Minnesota has expressed some desire to bring him back, I’d be a little surprised if he returns. Thibodeau was the one who brought him into the fold, and it seems unlikely that the club’s new decision-makers will aggressively look to retain him if he gets competitive offers from rival suitors.

Jones is a free agent too, albeit a restricted one, assuming the Wolves issue him a qualifying offer. The 23-year-old averaged career-bests in a handful of categories in 2018/19, including PPG (6.9) and APG (4.8), but he struggled with his shot and didn’t establish himself as a no-doubt keeper for the franchise. If the Wolves don’t face a ton of competition for Jones, they could bring him back on a short-term deal, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s playing elsewhere next season.

That leaves Teague, who will be entering the final year of his contract, which will pay him $19MM in 2019/20. An expiring deal like that could be a useful asset on the trade market, but with the status of the rest of the Timberwolves’ point guards up in the air, keeping the veteran around would be the safer play unless he helps net an upgrade. Although Teague’s numbers don’t jump off the page, his value shouldn’t be overlooked — the 36-46 Wolves were 23-19 last season in the 42 games he played.

5. How will the Timberwolves use the No. 11 overall pick?

The Timberwolves fell out of the top 10 in this year’s draft when they were leapfrogged by the Lakers, but there’s little consensus beyond the top three picks in this year’s class, so sliding to No. 11 may not hurt the team much.

With an unsettled point guard situation, the Wolves could look to address that position in this spot, but none of the top PGs in the 2019 class – Ja Morant, Darius Garland, and Coby White – figure to be on the board, and the team shouldn’t reach for a lesser prospect by drafting for need over talent.

One intriguing target for Minnesota in this spot would be Gonzaga forward Brandon Clarke, a versatile, defensive-minded big man who should be ready to contribute right away. Both The Athletic and ESPN had Clarke going to the Wolves in their first post-lottery mock drafts.

Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic hints that the Wolves wouldn’t necessarily rule out the possibility of moving up a few spots in the draft if a player they like – perhaps someone like White – lasts a little longer than expected.

Check out the Minnesota Timberwolves’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Charlotte Hornets

May 20th, 2019 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

Since being reborn in 2004 as the Bobcats, Charlotte’s NBA team – now the Hornets – has failed to win more than 48 games or advance past the first round of the postseason. Improbably, the 2018/19 season represented the first time during that stretch that the Hornets had even finished higher than third place in the Southeast. Unfortunately for Charlotte, that spoke more to the weakness of the division than the strength of the Hornets, as the team still missed the playoffs for a third straight season.

Entering the 2019 offseason, the Hornets find themselves at a crossroads. Given the organization’s struggles in recent years – and its inability to build a legit contender over the last 15 seasons – it might be time to blow things up and attempt another rebuild. However, it remains to be seen if ownership and management are ready to go down that road.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Is this the end of the Kemba Walker era in Charlotte?

Walker was the subject of trade rumors leading up to the 2018 trade deadline, but the Hornets overhauled their front office shortly thereafter and talk of dealing Kemba died down. He and the team said all the right things, with both sides expressing interest in a long-term union. There’s no reason to think that either side was lying or that that interest doesn’t still exist, but it’s hard to make the case that this remains the right fit.

Walker has long been the face of the Hornets, but he’s about to become eligible for a five-year contract worth up to nearly $190MM — or $221MM, if he earns All-NBA honors. Charlotte has had a hard enough time building around Walker while he has been on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the NBA ($12MM annually). Paying him upwards of three times that much as he prepares to enter his age-29 season could hamstring the team’s financial flexibility for the rest of Kemba’s prime.

As for Walker, he was probably miscast as a franchise player in Charlotte, but he has done all he could over the last eight years to try to turn the Hornets into a winner. It hasn’t worked out, and if he wants to look elsewhere for a better situation for contending, no one would blame him. The Charlotte Observer’s editorial board even encouraged the Hornets to let him do just that.

It will be fascinating to see how this situation plays out in July. Some ill-advised investments elsewhere on their roster have put the Hornets in a sort of no-win situation here. If they re-sign Walker, they won’t have the cap flexibility necessary to get him the help he needs. But if they let him walk, they may not have enough attractive assets on hand to jump-start their rebuild. It could be years before they sniff the postseason again.

2. Will the Hornets be able to shed salary?

Assuming Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist exercise their respective player options, the Hornets will be on the hook for more than $85MM next season for a five-player group that also features Nicolas Batum, Cody Zeller, and Bismack Biyombo.

If the Hornets bring back Walker and want to become a serious playoff contender, upgrading some of those spots will be a must. Those aren’t necessarily bad players, but Charlotte should be able to get more bang for its buck, given the money it’s spending on them.

Williams, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Biyombo will be on expiring contracts, while Batum and Zeller will each have two years left on their deals. The expiring trio would be easier to move, particularly if the Hornets are willing to attach draft-pick sweeteners and/or take on multiyear money. Creating cap room this offseason by dumping those contracts outright is extremely unlikely, but there could be some solid players available on the trade market if Charlotte is willing to take on future salary and surrender draft picks.

On the other hand, if Walker doesn’t return and the Hornets go into rebuilding mode, trimming salary becomes less of a priority. In that scenario, it makes more sense for the club to bide its time and wait for those expensive contracts to expire. By 2021, the Hornets’ cap would be mostly clear and they’d have spent a couple years collecting young talent, putting the team in position to make use of its newfound cap flexibility in the next stage of its rebuild.

3. Will Jeremy Lamb be re-signed?

Walker isn’t the only key contributor on Charlotte’s roster facing unrestricted free agency. You could make a strong case that Lamb was the second-most important Hornet in 2018/19. He was, at least, the team’s second-leading scorer, with his 15.3 PPG topping the club’s third-leading scorer by more than five points per game.

The former UConn standout has really come into his own in the last two years after struggling to find his footing during his first few NBA seasons. Over his last two seasons, Lamb has shown he can knock down outside shots (.358 3PT%) and make the occasional play as a ball-handler (2.3 APG). If the Hornets don’t bring him back, he’ll be missed.

Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if Lamb ultimately ends up elsewhere. He’s likely in line for a mid-level type deal this offseason. If Walker is back, money will be tight for the Hornets, and if Walker doesn’t return, an investment in a role player like Lamb may not be the best use of the team’s resources.

4. How will the Hornets use the No. 12 pick in the draft?

Whether or not they re-sign Lamb – a former 12th overall pick – the Hornets will have to figure out how best to make use of this year’s No. 12 selection.

Assuming Charlotte keeps the pick rather than using it in a trade, there’s no specific position for the team to lock in on — the Hornets could use talent at any spot, particularly if Walker departs.

Recent mock drafts from both ESPN.com and The Athletic have Kentucky forward PJ Washington heading to Charlotte, which would be an interesting fit. As Rod Boone of The Athletic observes, the team certainly hasn’t shied away from selecting Wildcats prospect in recent years, and they could use an athletic forward like Washington, who is capable of scoring on the inside.

Still, Washington is hardly the only player who would be of interest to the Hornets near the back end of the lottery. Oregon center Bol Bol would be an intriguing high-risk, high-reward play. Top international prospect Sekou Doumbouya would give the Hornets length and versatility in their frontcourt. Texas center Jaxson Hayes projects to be a solid rim protector and rim runner in the Clint Capela mold. Gonzaga’s Rui Hachimura has stretch-four upside.

Because the draft takes place before free agency, it’s possible the Hornets won’t have clarity on Walker’s future by the time they make this selection, but if their star point guard leaves and the rebuild begins, it’s even more important that Charlotte gets this pick right.

5. Will Tony Parker be back?

The longtime Spurs point guard, who signed with the Hornets in 2018, has a second year on his contract with Charlotte but has yet to decide whether or not he’ll retire. Parker has said multiple times since the season ended that he’s “50/50” on playing vs. retiring, adding that if he returns, he wants his team to at least be in the playoff mix, if not vying for a title.

While Parker’s deal with the Hornets is technically a two-year pact, his $5.25MM salary for 2019/20 is non-guaranteed, so even if he decides to keep playing, there’s no guarantee that Charlotte would bring him back at that price. In fact, considering he fell out of the rotation down the stretch in 2018/19, even before the Hornets had been eliminated from the postseason chase, I’d be surprised if the team doesn’t waive him and avoid that $5.25MM guarantee.

That doesn’t mean that Parker can’t sign a new contract and rejoin the Hornets for another year, but I’d expect him to explore other options if he hits the free agent market. There should be a number teams closer to contention who’d be willing to bring him aboard for the veteran’s minimum, and there’s no guarantee that Charlotte would go higher than that.

Check out the Charlotte Hornets’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Memphis Grizzlies

May 17th, 2019 at 3:38pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies made the postseason for seven years in a row before a dismal 2017/18 season in which they won just 22 games. The team hoped that nosedive in the standings would be short-lived and entered the 2018/19 campaign aiming to return to the playoffs.

While Memphis rebounded to some extent, it wasn’t enough. After a 33-win showing this season, Marc Gasol has been traded to the Raptors and there’s a chance that Mike Conley will follow him out of town in the not-too-distant future.

The Grizzlies never advanced further than the Western Conference Finals with Conley and Gasol as their centerpieces. With that era coming to an end, new cornerstones Jaren Jackson and – barring a draft-day surprise – Ja Morant will be tasked with helping the organization get back to contention in the coming years.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Grizzlies trade Mike Conley?

This year’s draft lottery results altered the outlook of the Grizzlies’ offseason. Halfway through the announcement of those results, we knew that the Lakers had jumped into the top four from No. 11, and it looked like the Grizzlies – who were No. 8 in the lottery standings – might not even have a first-round pick at all, since their top-eight protected first-rounder was owed to the Celtics.

Instead of landing at No. 9 though, that selection moved all the way up to No. 2. Not only do the Grizzlies still have their pick, but they’re now in great position to draft Morant, the Murray State point guard who appears to have emerged as the clear-cut top prospect behind Zion Williamson in the 2019 draft class.

With over a month until draft day, there are still a number of directions the Grizzlies could go with that pick, including trading down or choosing R.J. Barrett over Morant. But early reports suggest they’re “locked in” on Morant, so we’ll assume that’s the case. What happens with Conley now?

Having lost his longtime running mate Gasol earlier this season, Conley seemed resigned to the fact that his time in Memphis would soon be up too, and there are no shortage of possible trade partners for the Grizzlies. The Jazz, Pistons, and Pacers were said to be in the mix for the veteran at the trade deadline, and the Heat and Mavericks are among the other clubs cited as potential suitors.

If the Grizzlies favor a high draft pick, the Heat (No. 13) and Mavericks (No. 15) could be the best matches in that group. On the other hand, if they don’t get an offer to their liking, hanging onto Conley wouldn’t be the worst outcome. He’d be a great mentor for Morant, and Memphis could revisit the trade market before 2020’s deadline.

Based on the success Conley had last season, his stock may never be higher than it is right now, but the Grizzlies shouldn’t simply take whatever they can get for him if the offers this summer are underwhelming.

2. What will the rest of the Grizzlies’ backcourt look like?

Beyond the possibility of drafting Morant and/or trading Conley, there are a number of other uncertainties in the Grizzlies’ backcourt this summer.

The club will have to decide how to handle Avery Bradley‘s contract situation early in the offseason. Bradley is on the books for $12.96MM in 2019/20, but only $2MM of that total is guaranteed up until July 3.

While Bradley struggled to make an impact during his stint with the Clippers, he looked great in 14 games for the Grizzlies last season, averaging 16.1 PPG and 4.0 APG with a .463/.384/.920 shooting line and strong defense. If Memphis thinks he can give the team that sort of production again, guaranteeing his ’19/20 salary looks like the right call — especially since re-signing him after waiving him would be tricky, due to the loss of his Bird rights.

Delon Wright, meanwhile, averaged over 30 minutes per game down the stretch for the Grizzlies after being acquired as part of the Gasol package and will now be eligible for restricted free agency. The 27-year-old would be a solid and versatile backup at the point, but his future may hinge in part on what the club does with Conley and Bradley. If both veterans return, the Grizzlies’ payroll could start to get a bit too close to the tax line for comfort, reducing the team’s ability to make Wright a fair offer based on his market.

3. Will Jonas Valanciunas and Chandler Parsons be back on pricey expiring contracts?

It’s somewhat unfair to group these two players together. In Valanciunas’ case, the question will likely be whether he picks up his $17MM+ player option or signs a longer-term deal with the Grizzlies. Parsons, on the other hand, has his $25MM+ salary locked in already, but doesn’t appear to be part of the club’s future plans and could be traded or waived this summer.

Getting off either player’s salary would help keep team salary in check for the Grizzlies this summer, but I expect the team will do all it can to bring back Valanciunas. He was the most important incoming asset in the Gasol trade and looked great in Memphis, averaging a double-double (19.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG) in just 27.7 minutes per contest (19 games). While he has seven years of experience to Wright’s four, Valanciunas is also just 27 years old and could become a fixture in the Grizzlies’ frontcourt for years to come.

The same probably can’t be said for Parsons, whose time in Memphis has been marred by health issues. Since signing a maximum salary contract in 2016, the veteran forward has appeared in just 95 games for the team, posting the worst per-game stats of his career.

With no pressing need to move Parsons’ salary to clear cap space, I don’t expect the Grizzlies to aggressively try to get out from under the last year of his contract. If absolutely necessary, Memphis could waive-and-stretch him, but doing so would add $8MM+ to the team’s books for two additional seasons, meaning the front office will do all it can to avoid that outcome.

4. Who will be the Grizzlies’ next head coach?

Valanciunas recently told Lithuanian journalist Donatas Urbonas that the Grizzlies’ head coaching hire would have a “big impact” on his free agent decision, so perhaps the team needs to answer this question before addressing JV’s future.

Memphis has taken its time so far with its head coaching search, having parted ways with J.B. Bickerstaff way back on April 11. Virtually every team that has made a coaching change this spring has already wrapped up its search, with the Timberwolves – who just decided this week to open up a search – representing the lone exception.

We also have little sense of which candidates the Grizzlies are considering. Interviews for Warriors assistant Jarron Collins and Jazz assistant Alex Jensen have been reported, but otherwise it appears the club is keeping things close to the vest.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with a team taking over a month to choose a new head coach, or with attempting to keep a lid on which candidates they may be targeting or interviewing. Still, the Grizzlies’ process has been an unusual one by NBA standards, and it will be fascinating to see where it eventually leads them.

5. How will the Grizzlies’ new front office structure work?

In addition to firing Bickerstaff, the Grizzlies re-assigned GM Chris Wallace to the scouting department on April 11. Jason Wexler, Zach Kleiman, and Tayshaun Prince received promotions, with Rich Cho and Glen Grunwald also hired in key management roles.

Presumably, the Grizzlies have a clear idea of how the new front office structure will function, but it’s a little confusing from the outside, as none of the club’s executives hold the title of president of basketball operations or general manager.

Wexler is the Grizzlies’ new president, in charge of overseeing both the business and basketball operations departments. But neither he nor Kleiman, who is expected to assume the day-to-day responsibilities of a general manager, has an extensive basketball background.

Prince holds the role of special advisor, as does Grunwald. Cho was named the vice president of basketball strategy. While they’ll all presumably be involved in basketball decisions to some extent, it’s unclear who will be making the final call on any major moves.

Again, there may be a clear hierarchy in place here, but it will be worth monitoring during the group’s first offseason and subsequent season to get an idea of which voices have the most influence in Memphis’ front office.

Check out the Memphis Grizzlies’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Chicago Bulls

May 16th, 2019 at 4:05pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls entered the 2018/19 season hoping to take the sort of steps forward that fellow rebuilding teams like the Kings and Hawks did. Instead, the team got off to a slow start, fired head coach Fred Hoiberg, and installed Jim Boylen in his place en route to a 22-60 finish.

Having doubled down on Boylen with a multiyear contract extension, the Bulls will enter the 2019/20 campaign counting on another year of prospect development – and Boylen’s bond with his players – to begin translating to on-court success.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How will the Bulls address their point guard position?

Kris Dunn was one of the key components of the trade that sent Jimmy Butler from Chicago to Minnesota in 2017, but unlike the two other players the Bulls acquired in that swap – Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen – Dunn hasn’t established himself as a crucial piece of the team’s future.

After a pair of up-and-down seasons in Chicago, Dunn will at the very least find himself facing competition for his starting point guard job this fall, if he’s not usurped outright by a newcomer. It’ll be a big offseason for the former No. 5 overall pick, who will be extension-eligible for the first time.

With about $20MM in projected cap room at their disposal, the Bulls have the flexibility to pursue a veteran on the free agent market to address the point guard spot. They won’t be in play for Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, or D’Angelo Russell, and investing big money in a second-tier restricted free agent like Terry Rozier may be ill-advised, but there are a number of options available.

All the way back in January, one report identified Ricky Rubio and Darren Collison as two free-agents-to-be who will be of interest to the Bulls. Collison’s teammate Cory Joseph could be another option, as could Chicago native Patrick Beverley.

Two of the more intriguing players to watch on this front are Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo — Rose, is of course a former Bulls MVP, while Rondo was well-liked by the team’s young players during his lone year in Chicago. A reunion with either player might not be out of the question.

Of course, the Bulls hold the No. 7 overall pick in the draft and could use it to draft a point guard. However, Ja Morant appears likely to come off the board at No. 2, and Darius Garland may not be available for Chicago either. After those two prospects, there are probably no true point guards worth considering that high in the draft.

2. How will the Bulls use the No. 7 pick?

While Morant and Garland may be selected within the first six picks, there’s a decent chance that another guard will be on the board for the Bulls at No. 7. North Carolina’s Coby White is more of a combo guard than a full-fledged point guard, but he could be a fit for Chicago. That’s certainly a popular theory among experts — Mark Strotman of NBC Sports Chicago recently rounded up 22 separate post-lottery mock drafts and found that 15 of them have White going to the Bulls.

ESPN’s Jonathan Givony is among those who views the UNC guard as a good fit for the Bulls, writing in his latest mock draft that White’s ball-handling and shooting ability would allow him to play alongside either Dunn or LaVine as the team figures out which of its guards are long-term keepers.

On the other hand, in his scouting report of White, Givony points out that the 19-year-old is a “wild decision-maker” who has made strides as a passer but struggles with over-dribbling and dealing with aggressive ball pressure. In other words, if the Bulls do draft him, they can’t comfortably pencil in him as their point guard of the future quite yet.

There are other options available for Chicago at No. 7. Texas Tech swingman Jarrett Culver or Virginia forward De’Andre Hunter would be solid picks if they’re still on the board. In The Athletic’s most recent mock draft, Darnell Mayberry has the Bulls nabbing Culver, observing that it wouldn’t hurt to have another two-way wing on the roster. In Mayberry’s view, it makes more sense for the club to fill its point guard need in free agency.

3. Will the Bulls bring back any of their free agents?

A year ago, the Bulls had to negotiate a new long-term contract with LaVine when he reached restricted free agency. This time around, there are no players who absolutely must be re-signed. Unrestricted free agent big man Robin Lopez and RFAs Wayne Selden and Ryan Arcidiacono headline Chicago’s relatively small group of free agents this summer.

Based on the team’s timeline for contention, it seems like Selden and Arcidiacono are the players more likely to be back, but we shouldn’t entirely rule out a new deal for Lopez. After all, the lottery-bound Bulls could have traded him at the deadline or bought him out before March 1, but opted to keep him around instead. He’s unlikely to earn $14MM+ again, so if the Bulls have some cap room left over, perhaps they’ll explore keeping him in the mix as a veteran leader on a young roster.

Of those three players though, Arcidiacono looks to me like the best bet to return. The 25-year-old was a surprisingly effective part of Chicago’s rotation in 2018/19, averaging 6.7 PPG, 3.3 APG, and 2.7 RPG on .447/.373/.873 shooting in 81 games (32 starts). He’s also coming off a minimum salary contract, so the Bulls will be able to keep his very modest cap hold on the books and then go over the cap to re-sign him once they use their cap room.

4. Will the Bulls add more shooting?

No NBA team made fewer 3-pointers in 2018/19 than the Bulls, whose 9.1 threes per game ranked dead-last in the league. Although the deadline acquisition of Otto Porter should ostensibly have helped boost that number, Chicago’s stats were even worse after the All-Star break (8.3 threes per game).

Getting Denzel Valentine back in 2019/20 should give the Bulls another outside threat, and the team will expect more from 2018 first-rounder Chandler Hutchison, who struggled from beyond the arc after posting good shooting numbers at Boise State.

Still, it wasn’t just a matter of the team’s personnel. Up until Hoiberg’s ouster, the Bulls were launching 29.3 threes per game, a below-average rate, but one that was more toward the middle of the pack. Under Boylen, that number declined to 24.5 attempts per game, easily the NBA’s lowest mark.

Boylen’s offensive philosophy has faced criticism for being old-fashioned, and the club’s low rate of outside shots is part of that. The key question for the Bulls is whether they’ll allow that philosophy to dictate the sort of roster additions they pursue, or whether the front office will still look to add a strong shooter or two to the mix. Doing so could force Boylen to modernize his offensive attack a little, making the Bulls a more dangerous team.

5. What are the expectations for John Paxson and Gar Forman?

While we’re on the subject of the front office, it’s worth questioning what the expectations are for the Bulls executives known collectively as “GarPax.”

Since appearing in the Eastern Semifinals in 2015, the team has seen its win total decline for four consecutive years. It’s time for that trend to end and start moving in the other direction, but how quickly does Bulls ownership expect it to happen?

The Reinsdorfs have been far more patient with Paxson and Forman than most Bulls fans have, giving them endorsement after endorsement when questioned about their faith in the front office. The coming year could represent a crucial turning point though.

After a turbulent 2018/19 season, the Bulls’ rebuild may be in trouble if they don’t start taking positive steps forward in ’19/20. Will team ownership see it that way too, or will Paxson and Forman continue to get all the time they need to build a roster capable of playoff contention?

Check out the Chicago Bulls’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Sacramento Kings

May 14th, 2019 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings have the NBA’s longest postseason drought, having not appeared in the playoffs since 2006. Still, while they were unable to snap that streak in 2018/19, it represented the team’s most promising season in years — in fact, Sacramento’s 39-43 record was its best mark since that ’05/06 campaign.

While breakout years by young building blocks like De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield bode well for the Kings going forward, it’s not clear that the dysfunction plaguing Sacramento for years is totally behind the organization.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Did the franchise make the right call hiring Luke Walton?

That dysfunction I mentioned in the introduction surfaced during the 2018/19 season in large part due to tension between head coach Dave Joerger and the front office — specifically assistant GM Brandon Williams. There was a disconnect between the two sides on how much playing time veterans and prospects should receive, and Joerger made some comments hinting that he might not have been entirely on board with the Kings’ decision to draft Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic.

By parting ways with both Joerger and Williams, the Kings made an effort to remove that potential discord from the equation entirely going forward. They quickly replaced Joerger with Luke Walton, a coach who received some praise for his work with young players during his early days with the Lakers.

However, the Kings perhaps moved too quickly to lock up Walton. Just a week after they announced his hiring, word broke that he was being sued and accused of sexual assault.

The Kings now found themselves in a tricky situation. Hiring Walton and then dismissing him before he coaches a single game would be a bad look for the franchise, but it would arguably be an even worse look if the team retains him despite finding the claims against him to be credible.

Before determining whether he’s the right fit on the court, the Kings will have to do their best to determine whether there’s truth to the off-court allegations against Walton, and whether that would disqualify him from keeping the job. The Kings and the NBA are currently investigating the allegations.

2. What will happen with Harrison Barnes?

Barnes finds himself this summer in a situation that’s not uncommon for veterans for player options. There’s virtually no chance he’ll match his $25MM+ player-option salary in 2019/20 if he opts out. But he could definitely exceed that total amount on a longer-term deal.

In other words, if the Kings are prepared to offer him, say, a three-year, $60MM contract in order to lock him up for a few years and to increase their 2019 cap room by reducing his ’19/20 cap hit, would that be worth it for Barnes? Or would he prefer to pick up his player option, then try his luck at a long-term contract in 2020?

If the Kings aren’t convinced after Barnes’ 28-game audition down this stretch this season that he’s worth a significant investment, it may simplify his decision. The most likely scenario, in my view, is that he simply opts in and takes the big payday for 2019/20. But if he turns that option down in June, there’s reason to believe that he recognizes a bigger offer is coming from Sacramento.

3. Will the Kings attempt to bring back Willie Cauley-Stein?

Many of the Kings’ free agents – including veterans like Kosta Koufos and Corey Brewer – are good bets to head elsewhere this offseason. However, it remains unclear what the team’s plan is for Cauley-Stein, who will be eligible for restricted free agency.

Cauley-Stein started all but one game for Sacramento in 2018/19, and he was reliable up front, averaging 11.9 PPG and 8.4 RPG in 27.3 minutes per contest. His on/off-court numbers also reflected his value, as the team was better both offensively and defensively when he played.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Kings are prepared to invest heavily in the 25-year-old center though. It also doesn’t mean he’s eager to return, especially if Sacramento plans on getting young bigs like Harry Giles and Bagley more minutes going forward.

With the right of first refusal on Cauley-Stein, the Kings will have the ability to match any offer sheet he receives, but it’s hard to imagine a rival suitor making too aggressive a play for a center who doesn’t shoot from outside and isn’t a strong rim protector. It wouldn’t be shocking if Cauley-Stein becomes one of those RFAs who remains on the market beyond July in a stalemate with his previous team, but perhaps he and the Kings can find common ground before it gets to that point.

4. How will the Kings use their cap room?

Even if they have Barnes’ player option and Cauley-Stein’s cap hold on their books, the Kings should have well over $20MM in cap room this summer, putting them in position to be a player in free agency or on the trade market.

The Kings have never been one of the league’s most popular free agent destinations, particularly during their lengthy playoff drought, but general manager Vlade Divac will likely be tempted to make a splash on the market this year. After all, his team was in contention for a postseason spot for most of the 2018/19 season. Maybe the right free agent addition, along with continued improvement from his young players, is all Sacramento needs to get over the top and earn a top-eight spot in the West.

Nonetheless, the Kings should remain cautious when approaching free agency. While their cap situation is favorable for now, it’s just a matter of time until players like Hield and Fox get huge raises, so the team will want to avoid compromising its future flexibility by investing in the wrong player.

The Kings’ best move, assuming they can’t land a marquee free agent, might be to take a page from the Sixers’ book — when Philadelphia was on the rise, the team signed J.J. Redick to a pair of one-year deals that looked like overpays on paper, but presented no long-term risk. Redick served as an important veteran leader and a key piece of the rotation, while the short-term nature of his contracts allowed the 76ers to retain its flexibility each summer.

5. Will the Kings extend Buddy Hield?

As noted above, second contracts for many of the Kings’ youngsters are around the corner, and that’s especially true for Hield, who becomes extension-eligible in July for the first time.

The timing couldn’t be better for the former centerpiece of Sacramento’s DeMarcus Cousins trade. He’s coming off a breakout season in which he averaged 20.7 PPG on .458/.427/.886 shooting. Few sharpshooters were more dangerous in 2018/19 than Hield, who ranked fifth in the NBA in total 3-point attempts (651) and ninth in 3-point percentage.

There’s no rush for the Kings to lock up Hield right away. He’ll be eligible for restricted free agency in 2020, at which point Sacramento would have the ability to match any offer to retain him. But letting him reach free agency could be dangerous, particularly if he takes another step forward in 2019/20. A young scorer and shooter like Hield will command huge offers.

If they can lock up Hield at a reasonable rate this offseason, the Kings should jump at the chance to do so. Not only would they avoid having to deal with a potential offer sheet a year from now, but securing Hield would show that the Kings are willing to reward their core players and that those players, in turn, believe Sacramento is a franchise worth committing to. It would be a major step in the right direction for an organization that has spent more than a decade mired in the lottery.

Check out the Sacramento Kings’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Phoenix Suns

May 10th, 2019 at 3:31pm CST by Luke Adams

It looked like the Suns might be on the upswing after they lucked into the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, then lured a coveted two-way forward (Trevor Ariza) away from the 65-win Rockets during free agency. However, things took an abrupt downward turn from there.

Team owner Robert Sarver‘s patience with GM Ryan McDonough ran out when Phoenix was unable to land a starting-caliber point guard in the offseason, prompting the club to fire McDonough right before the regular season began. Despite aspirations of postseason contention, the Suns spent virtually season in the basement of the Western Conference, selling off veterans like Ariza when it became clear that the playoffs were a pipe dream. To top it all off, first-year head coach Igor Kokoskov got his walking papers at season’s end.

With a new permanent GM (James Jones) and head coach (Monty Williams) now in place, there’s some optimism that this duo can finally be the winning combination for the Suns. But after losing at least 58 games for four straight seasons and not appearing in the playoffs since 2010, the team remains in prove-it mode.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will they acquire a starting point guard this year?

The days of Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, and Isaiah Thomas vying for minutes in Phoenix are long gone. The team’s current point guard depth chart, which features 2018 draftees De’Anthony Melton and Elie Okobo and combo guard Tyler Johnson, is… well, a little thinner.

Unlike last year, the Suns are unlikely to have any cap room at their disposal during the 2019 offseason, which will limit their ability to add an impact player at the position. Barring major cost-cutting moves, it’s hard to imagine the team being able to make a play for a young point guard like D’Angelo Russell or Terry Rozier, both of whom will be restricted free agents.

Second-tier RFAs like Delon Wright or Tyus Jones could be in Phoenix’s price range, but those players have yet to show they can be reliable starters. On the unrestricted market, veterans like Patrick Beverley, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Rajon Rondo, and Ricky Rubio may be realistic targets for the Suns if they don’t receive other offers that exceed the mid-level.

Of course, the draft would provide the simplest path to securing a long-term answer at point guard, but the Suns will need some lottery luck to be in a position to snag Murray State’s Ja Morant, who looks like the consensus No. 2 pick in this year’s class. Although they finished in a tie for the league’s second-worst record, the Suns only have a 27.4% chance to land a top-two pick, thanks to the NBA’s new lottery format.

If the Suns can’t get Morant, Vanderbilt’s Darius Garland could be a viable fallback option — he’s ranked fourth among this year’s prospects on ESPN’s big board, and other teams near the top of the lottery, like the Cavaliers and Hawks, have already used lottery picks on point guards in recent years, making them less-likely suitors for someone like Garland.

2. Where will the Suns’ lottery pick land?

Due to those aforementioned changes to the lottery, the Suns’ odds next Tuesday won’t be as strong as they would have been in past years. Their most likely landing spot (26.0%) is No. 6. Under the old format, falling further than No. 5 would’ve been an extreme long shot.

Conversely though, no team has a better chance at landing the No. 1 pick (14.0%) – or a top-four pick (52.1%) – than the Suns, who have the same odds as their fellow bottom-three teams.

In an extremely top-heavy draft, the difference between ending up at No. 2 or No. 6 would be absolutely massive for the Suns. Of course, for a franchise that has used so many top-10 picks in recent years with so little to show for those picks, perhaps Phoenix doesn’t deserve any more lottery luck.

Still, being in a position to draft Morant would single-handedly make the Suns’ offseason a win. On the other hand, if they end up at No. 6 and have to choose from the likes of wings such as Cam Reddish and Jarrett Culver, it would really start the summer off on the wrong foot.

3. Which of the Suns’ forwards are keepers?

Ending up with a player like Reddish or Culver isn’t a bad thing, generally speaking, but if those are the best players available when the Suns are up, it would present some problems for the team. That’s because Phoenix already has a logjam at its forward and wing spots, with T.J. Warren, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Jackson under contract and Kelly Oubre facing restricted free agency.

The jury is still out on what sort of role Jackson can play on a postseason contender, but Warren has proven himself as a scorer and play-maker, and Bridges flashed promising potential in his rookie season. As for Oubre, he and the Suns appear to have mutual interest in continuing their relationship. Can the club find enough minutes for all four players going forward?

I’m betting the answer to that question is no, which means the Suns figure to explore trades this offseason to help clear the logjam. I doubt Bridges will go anywhere, and I think Oubre is a good bet to stick around too, despite his free agent status. That leaves Warren and Jackson as potential trade chips.

Jackson has the more team-friendly contract of the two, which boosts his trade value, but he also doesn’t have the professional résumé that Warren does, having turned in two up-and-down seasons in the NBA since being drafted fourth overall in 2017. If the Suns can find a team willing to bet on Jackson’s upside (he’s still just 22) and pay a fair price for him, he’s my pick for the team’s most likely trade candidate.

4. How will James Jones’ philosophy affect the team’s direction?

As a former player who only retired from the game in 2017, Jones – who was named Phoenix’s permanent GM in April – seems like a candidate to value the influence on veteran contributors on a young roster. Yet his roster moves throughout the 2018/19 season suggested an entirely different philosophy.

With the exception of Jamal Crawford, who stuck around all year long, the Suns jettisoned most of their veterans over the course of the season. Tyson Chandler was bought out early, much to the surprise of league observers. Ariza was traded well before the deadline. And useful veterans acquired in trades – such as Austin Rivers and Wayne Ellington – were quickly waived as well, allowing them to become rotation pieces on playoff teams.

As someone who played on the Heat and Cavaliers with LeBron James throughout the second half of his career, perhaps Jones simply believes in doing right by veterans and allowing them to join contenders. Still, with the Suns’ direction unclear, it will be interesting to see how his attitude applies to the 2019 offseason.

Will Jones pursue veterans in free agency in the hopes of once again pushing for a playoff spot? Will he try to bring in one or two like Crawford who can help stabilize the locker room? Will he ignore vets altogether, fully embracing the rebuild and allowing his young players to get thrown in the deep end by playing big minutes? This offseason will represent Jones’ first major opportunity to put his stamp on the franchise, so it’s worth watching closely to see what that looks like.

5. Will the Suns have patience with Monty Williams?

It’s possible that 2016 Suns lottery picks Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss wouldn’t have had great success in their first three NBA seasons under any circumstances, but the franchise didn’t exactly put them in a position to develop — Chriss played for two different head coaches in his two years in Phoenix, and Bender played for three in his three seasons.

For a team looking to nurture and develop its young players, stability is important. Just ask the Nets, who broke through this season after years of gradual improvement under Kenny Atkinson.

In Phoenix, Sarver has historically been impatient with his coaches, to the detriment of the Suns’ culture. Williams will be the Suns’ seventh head coach since the start of the 2012/13 season, and the team needs to make sure its coaching turnover doesn’t continue at that rate.

Signing Williams to a five-year contract is a good first step. Now, Sarver has to be patient with his new head coach, recognizing that things might not change overnight. Kokoskov, who was let go a year after he was hired, didn’t get a chance to prove that he could be a long-term fixture in Phoenix. The team needs to give Williams that opportunity.

Check out the Phoenix Suns’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Atlanta Hawks

May 8th, 2019 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The Hawks entered the 2018/19 season facing some major questions. Did they pick the right head coach when they hired Lloyd Pierce to replace Mike Budenholzer? Was it the right choice to give up on Dennis Schroder? Did they make a mistake passing on an opportunity to draft Luka Doncic by moving down for Trae Young?

While it’s probably premature to say that the team’s ’18/19 showing definitively answered all those questions, they’re at least much less pressing heading into the 2019 offseason. Pierce had a solid first year as the young, run-and-gun Hawks began to form their own identity. And Atlanta didn’t miss Schroder as Young gave Doncic a serious run for Rookie of the Year honors.

There’s still a long way to go in the rebuild, but the Hawks certainly seem pointed in the right direction. Now, they have the opportunity to take another step or two toward contention with this offseason’s moves.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How aggressive will the Hawks be in free agency?

As we outlined in our look at Atlanta’s cap situation, the team can expect to have over $40MM in cap room at its disposal this summer. That’s more than enough to sign… well, any free agent available.

It’s probably not realistic to expect a star like Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard to choose the Hawks in free agency, but a February report indicated that the franchise planned to be aggressive in pursuing that sort of player in the hopes of at least getting a meeting. With a young nucleus already in place, along with an upgraded arena and practice facility, the Hawks could make a decent pitch.

More recently though, general manager Travis Schlenk suggested that the Hawks are more likely to take a similar approach to free agency that they did a year ago, waiting out the market and looking for discounts in the second or third wave of signings.

Does that mean that Atlanta recognizes it won’t get an audience with those top-tier players? Or does Schlenk simply believe it’s too early in the rebuilding process to attempt that sort of splash? Either way, at this point, it would be surprising if the Hawks pursue a star free agent, and even more surprising if they land one.

2. Will the Hawks focus on productive veterans or salary dumps on the trade market?

During the 2017 offseason, the Hawks took on Jamal Crawford‘s unfavorable contract from the Clippers because it was attached to a first-round pick, then immediately waived Crawford. In the 2018 offseason, they made a similar deal with the Thunder, acquiring Carmelo Anthony‘s pricey expiring contract along with a future first-round pick before cutting Anthony.

With over $40MM+ in projected cap room this summer, the Hawks could easily accommodate a similar salary dump — or even two of them. But the club doesn’t necessarily have to go in that direction.

The Hawks already control extra first-round picks in 2019, 2020, and 2022, so at some point they may want to consolidate their assets and make a run at a star player in a trade. It may be too soon to take a swing like that, especially for a player who isn’t on a long-term contract. For instance, Atlanta could, in theory, put together a pretty intriguing package for Anthony Davis, but it wouldn’t make sense to do so if he’ll likely leave in a year.

Even if the Hawks don’t want to part with any of their first-round picks in a trade for a veteran, their cap room could be a useful tool in trade talks. If there’s a team out there looking to move a useful player in order to open up more space – say, the Clippers with Danilo Gallinari – Atlanta’s cap space could provide the means to accommodate that sort of deal without parting with any major assets.

3. Will the Hawks waive-and-stretch Miles Plumlee?

Plumlee, who has spent the last two seasons in Atlanta, appeared in just 18 games and played 173 total minutes in 2018/19. He’s entering the final year of his contract and is owed $12.5MM in 2019/20. Theoretically, the Hawks could create nearly $8MM in additional cap room by waiving him and stretching his salary over three seasons.

In reality though, I doubt we see that move. Plumlee would be an ideal stretch candidate on another roster, but it’s hard to imagine why the Hawks would need to move from $41MM in cap room to $49MM. And stretching Plumlee would add $4MM+ cap hits to Atlanta’s books for the following two seasons, when that cap space might be even more useful.

That’s not to say that Plumlee will be a Hawk to start the 2019/20 season, or that the team won’t waive him. But trading the big man’s expiring contract for a longer-term deal in order to pick up an extra asset seems like a more Schlenk-esque move than simply waiving and stretching him.

4. Will the Hawks extend Taurean Prince?

Prince was drafted a year before the Hawks’ current management group assumed control of the front office, and his name has intermittently popped up in trade rumors, which may be an indication that he’s not viewed as a lock to be a long-term building block.

Still, the former Baylor standout has developed into an increasingly reliable three-and-D wing, making 38.7% of his three-point attempts over the last two seasons. His perimeter defense may not be as strong as the Hawks might like, but Prince looks like the sort of contributor who could have a real role on a playoff team.

Schlenk has said he plans to talk to Prince’s agent this offseason about a potential extension – he’ll be eligible for one starting in July, up until opening night – so it will be interesting to see if the two sides can reach an agreement.

Of the players who have signed rookie scale extensions signed in recent years, Justise Winslow (three years, $39MM) and T.J. Warren (four years, $47MM) may be the best comparables for Prince. Neither player has exactly the same skill set, but if Prince gets a long-term deal from the Hawks, an annual salary in that neighborhood seems about right to me.

5. What will the Hawks do with their draft picks?

This question can only really be answered once we know the answer to another one: How many picks will Atlanta actually have, and where will those picks land? Next Tuesday’s lottery is a huge one for the Hawks, whose best-case scenario could have them picking first and ninth overall, thanks to a trade with Dallas. The worst-case scenario? The Mavs keep their pick and Atlanta’s first-rounder slips all the way to No. 9.

If we assume the lottery plays out in a relatively straightforward manner, the Hawks should own a pair of picks in the back half of the top 10, plus three more selections in the first half of the second round (Nos. 35, 41, and 44). That’s too many picks to use them all on immediate contributors.

There are a ton of scenarios in play for Schlenk and the Hawks with those picks. Packaging multiple picks to move up could be an option if there’s a player they really have their eye on. Selecting a draft-and-stash prospect is another option. So is trading a pick or two for future selections, ensuring that they stay well-stocked with draft assets going forward.

The Hawks may wait to see how the draft plays out before making any final decisions on their picks, but it’s reasonable to expect them to be one of the league’s active teams on June 20.

Check out the Atlanta Hawks’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Dallas Mavericks

May 6th, 2019 at 1:21pm CST by Luke Adams

After making the playoffs 15 of 16 times from 2001-16, the Mavericks have now missed out on the postseason for three straight years, failing to surpass 33 wins in a single season during that stretch.

Having tried in vain to build one more contending team during Dirk Nowitzki‘s twilight years, the Mavs switched gears in 2018/19 and began looking ahead to the future. That meant moving up in the draft to nab potential franchise player Luka Doncic and then surrendering a few more assets – and taking on some unwanted contracts – to acquire a potential long-term running mate for Doncic (Kristaps Porzingis) at the trade deadline.

The Mavs still have plenty of work to do on the rest of their roster, but with a pair of potential stars in the mix, the organization no longer feels like it’s treading water in the same way it did during many of Nowitzki’s final few seasons.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What will Kristaps Porzingis’ new contract look like?

A healthy, scandal-free version of Porzingis would likely receive a maximum salary contract from just about any team capable of offering him one as a restricted free agent. That isn’t the version the Mavericks have though.

A torn ACL has sidelined Porzingis for nearly a season and a half. He hasn’t appeared in an NBA game since February 6, 2018, and it’s not as if he was a paragon of health before that injury — he missed 10 games in his rookie year and 16 more in his sophomore season. There’s no indication that he won’t be back to 100% for the start of the 2019/20 campaign, but that injury history is still concerning for a 7’3″ big man.

On top of that, Porzingis is facing a rape accusation related to an encounter that allegedly occurred during his time with the Knicks. The timeline for that case remains unclear, and the Mavs will have to be extra cautious as they navigate the situation after dealing with allegations of sexual misconduct within their workplace a year ago.

While it’s hard to predict how those allegations will impact contract negotiations this summer, Joel Embiid‘s deal with the Sixers could at least provide a framework for how to handle Porzingis’ injury history.

Embiid’s five-year, maximum salary extension with Philadelphia was worth the 25% max, and could have increased to the 30% max if he had earned First Team All-NBA honors in 2018. However, the deal also contained language that would have made future salaries non-guaranteed if Embiid suffered another major injury related to one of his previous health problems. So far, that deal has worked out for both sides, so perhaps the Mavs and Porzingis will explore a similar arrangement.

2. What will the Mavericks do with their cap room?

Finding common ground with Porzingis will be important, since reaching an agreement with KP and then waiting to officially re-sign him will allow the Mavericks to maximize their projected cap room. Porzingis’ cap hold is worth about $17MM, and as long as they keep that hold on their books, the Mavs will be able to go over the cap later in free agency to give him a higher salary.

Currently, the Mavs project to have about $29-30MM in available cap space. That’s not quite enough for a maximum salary contract for a veteran with seven-plus years of NBA experience, but it’s enough to make a strong offer to a player who is a borderline max candidate, and Dallas appears to be shopping in that aisle.

A recent report indicated that point guard Kemba Walker and shooting guard Khris Middleton are among the free agents on the Mavs’ wish list. Both would be very nice additions — Middleton’s three-and-D style fits on any roster, and Walker could certainly coexist with Doncic, given his catch-and-shoot ability. Nikola Vucevic has also been cited as a potential target, though there are conflicting reports on Dallas’ level of interest in the Magic center.

Of course, the Mavericks’ last few forays into the upper echelon of free agency haven’t been major successes. Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes are the only big names the team has signed as free agents since 2015, and even calling them “big names” might be a stretch. Perhaps the presence of Doncic and Porzingis attracts a new caliber of free agent, but Dallas should be wary about throwing a ton of money at players in that Matthews/Barnes tier. Using that cap room on one-year signings – or to accommodate salary dumps – might make more sense.

3. Are Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee keepers?

Hardaway and Lee were the pieces the Mavericks had to take on to make the Porzingis trade work. Their contracts run through 2020 (Lee) or 2021 (Hardaway), so the Knicks had to get off them to open up two max slots for the summer of 2019.

If the Mavs trade one or the other in the coming months, they could create even more cap room of their own for the 2019 offseason. However, I don’t expect that to happen.

While they’re both a little overpriced, Lee and Hardaway can still be useful assets on the court. Lee is just a year removed from averaging 12.0 PPG on .454/.406/.919 shooting, and is a 38.7% career three-point shooter. Hardaway averaged a career-high 18.1 PPG and is capable of handling some play-making duties when Doncic needs a break.

Both players dealt with injuries in 2018/19 and weren’t at their best, so I’d expect the Mavs to hope for better health from the duo in 2019/20. If they can increase their value with strong performances in the first half, they could become positive trade assets by the ’20 deadline.

4. What’s the Mavs’ plan for Dwight Powell?

Powell holds a $10,259,375 player option for next season, but it sounds like his offseason won’t just be a matter of making a decision on whether to exercise or decline that option.

Mavs owner Mark Cuban suggested in a radio appearance last month that Dallas plans to extend Powell for multiple seasons, and Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News recently tweeted about Powell’s upcoming extension as if it’s a given.

While it sounds like Powell will stick around beyond 2019/20, we still don’t know exactly what that new deal will look like, or how it will happen. If Powell opts out and re-signs with Dallas as a free agent, it would give both sides more flexibility in terms of years and starting salary. However, a veteran extension is also a possibility if Powell simply picks up his option — the extension would simply begin a year later.

The veteran power forward averaged 10.6 PPG and 5.3 RPG with a .597 FG% in 77 games (21.6 MPG) this season, and could be in line for a larger role with Nowitzki retiring, so it will be interesting to see what his new deal looks like.

5. Will the Mavericks keep their first-round pick?

There’s nothing the Mavs can do at this point to swing this question one way or the other — the answer will be determined by a series of ping-pong balls at the draft lottery on May 14.

The NBA’s new lottery format could help Dallas out. Under the old system, the Mavs – who finished in a three-way tie for seventh place in the lottery standings – would have had just a 10% chance of jumping into the top three and keeping their top-five protected pick. The new system gives the club a 26.2% chance to move into the top four, as our lottery odds chart shows. That means there’s a 73.8% chance the pick heads to Atlanta.

Unlike the Grizzlies, who have a top-eight protected pick and hope it conveys this year so that they can move onto a potential rebuild without having that commitment hanging over their heads, the Mavs would probably prefer to keep their pick. Adding another top-four caliber talent to their roster would put the club in better position to contend sooner rather than later, and could mean handing over a much less favorable first-rounder next year.

Plus, because the Mavs traded away two more first-round picks in their deal for Porzingis, it benefits the team to have those selections pushed back as much as possible as a result of the Stepien rule, which prevents clubs from trading consecutive future first-rounders. The longer their commitment to the Hawks gets postponed, the less likely the Mavs are to ultimately send two future first-rounders to the Knicks — the second of those picks (top-10 protected) must be conveyed by 2025, or it will turn into a second-rounder.

Check out the Dallas Mavericks’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Cleveland Cavaliers

May 2nd, 2019 at 2:04pm CST by Luke Adams

No team dropped off more significantly from 2017/18 to 2018/19 than the Cavaliers, who went from winning 50 regular season games and three playoff series to posting a dismal 19-63 mark and firing their head coach.

That drop-off was to be expected — no other team lost a player of LeBron James‘ caliber last summer, after all. Still, it was a jarring reminder that the post-LeBron era in Cleveland will be a challenging one, as the roster James left behind will have to be retooled – or rebuilt entirely – before it’s capable of contending again.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What’s the timeline for the Cavaliers’ rebuild?

Although the Cavaliers jettisoned several of their veteran players in trades over the last year, many high-priced vets remain on the books for one more season. Beyond 2019/20, only Kevin Love and Larry Nance have guaranteed salaries (Cedi Osman will be a restricted free agent that summer, and the club holds options on Collin Sexton and Ante Zizic).

The Cavaliers – whose first-round pick this spring can’t fall lower than No. 6 – could be in position to snag a potential franchise player like Zion Williamson or Ja Morant with some luck in the lottery. Throw in a pretty clean cap sheet starting in 2020 and there’s a blueprint for the team pushing its way back into the playoff picture in the East within the next couple years.

Still, the Cavs’ roster isn’t exactly loaded with young talent yet, and it’s not as if star free agents will be clamoring to sign with Cleveland in the summer of 2020, whether or not the team has cap room. If the organization is serious about building a roster capable of sustained success, it makes more sense to be patient than to try to get back to the postseason as soon as possible.

The Cavs’ long-term priorities will influence their moves this summer. If they recognize that it might be a few more years before legit contention is a possibility again, taking on bad-money contracts that extend beyond the 2019/20 season could be the right approach — even if those deals limit their cap flexibility for an extra year or two.Read more

2. Who will become the Cavs’ next head coach?

After firing Tyronn Lue six games into the season, the Cavs installed Larry Drew as their head coach for the rest of the season. By all accounts, Drew was well-liked in the locker room and did an admirable job leading the team under a difficult set of circumstances. But he also had little interest in staying in the role beyond this season, prompting the Cavs to launch a full-fledged coaching search in April.

The candidates that have been linked to Cleveland so far – including assistants like Juwan Howard, Jamahl Mosley, Alex Jensen, David Vanterpool, Wes Unseld Jr., and Nate Tibbetts – paint a picture of what type of coach the club is seeking. The Cavs would like to find their version of Brett Brown or Lloyd Pierce, an up-and-coming coach who has a strong background in player development and can help a young roster reach its potential.

It remains to be seen which way the Cavs are leaning or which candidate they’ll eventually hire, but it’s an important decision, one they’ll want to make sure they get right. As we’ve seen in places like Phoenix and Sacramento in recent years, rotating through several head coaches during a young player’s first few years in the league does him no favors.

3. Will the Cavs find a taker for J.R. Smith‘s contract?

Smith was exiled from the Cavaliers for nearly all of the 2018/19 season, but wasn’t waived because his contract could still be useful in a trade. Under the NBA’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement, only the guaranteed portion of a player’s salary counts for salary-matching purposes in a trade, but that rule doesn’t apply to Smith, since his deal was signed under the old CBA. As such, the Cavs could trade Smith to a team looking to shed salary by waiving him, since his $15.68MM salary is only partially guaranteed for $3.87MM.

We broke down the appeal of Smith’s contract in more detail in a previous article. Within that article, we also explored why that contract may not be as valuable a trade chip as advertised. Its value hinges on the Cavs’ willingness to take back significant guaranteed salary in return, and the club already has $123MM+ in guaranteed money on its books for 2019/20. Adding much more to that total would push team salary over the projected $132MM luxury tax line.

It’d be great for the Cavs if they could salvage some value out of Smith’s overpriced contract and snag a prospect or a draft pick, but the cost might be too high.

4. Will it be necessary to dump some salary?

Being a taxpaying team this season is probably not an option for the Cavaliers. Due to their years in the tax during their run of four straight Finals appearances, the Cavs would face more punitive “repeater” penalties if they finish the 2019/20 season over the tax line. Owner Dan Gilbert showed a commendable willingness to spend when Cleveland was a contender, but paying a tax bill for a rebuilding team would be a hard pill to swallow.

Yet, due to a series of trades that saw them take on money in order to acquire draft picks, the Cavs would be a projected taxpayer if they take back another eight-digit salary for Smith, as detailed above.

The best way to avoid the tax would be to trade an expiring contract without taking any money back. However, it’s not clear if any of the Cavs veterans on expiring contracts – Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, John Henson, and Matthew Dellavedova – could be moved without attaching an asset, and attaching an asset would defeat the purpose of having taken on many of those players in the first place.

If it comes to it, stretching one of those players may be the Cavs’ best option. It would add money to the team’s cap for two subsequent seasons, but if the team doesn’t expect to contend for a few more years, that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

5. Does Kevin Love have a long-term future in Cleveland?

For as much as we’ve talked about the Cavs taking the long-term view in regard to building their roster, we’ve overlooked one key point — the franchise proactively locked up Love, who will turn 31 before training camps open in the fall, to a four-year extension that will pay him over $120MM through 2022/23.

It was a curious move for a team that seemed poised for a full-fledged rebuild, but one that made sense from a certain angle. Cleveland is not a popular free agent destination, and Love posted star-type numbers before he joined the Cavs and took a back seat to LeBron and Kyrie Irving. He also likes playing in Cleveland and was willing to commit to the franchise. Securing him as a stabilizing force during what could be a tough period for the club seemed reasonable enough.

Love’s new rate of $30MM per year, however, was a high price to pay for veteran stability, especially for a player who has had trouble staying on the court. Love’s injury issues reared their head again in 2018/19, as he was limited to just 22 games, an ominous sign as he enters his 30s and begins his new long-term deal.

Like their other overpriced veterans, Love probably doesn’t provide the Cavs with positive trade value at this point, so I’d be surprised if they look to move him this summer. The prudent move would be to exercise some patience and hope that he can stay healthier in 2019/20 and beyond. If he can rebuild his on-court value to some extent, moving his contract should only get easier as its end date inches closer. And even if the Cavs are paying more than they’d like for it, Love’s veteran locker-room presence could be important as the team fills its roster with young prospects and building blocks over the next year or two.

Check out the Cleveland Cavaliers offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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