The 2018 NBA offseason is officially in full swing, and over the last several weeks, Hoops Rumors has been previewing this summer’s roster moves and decisions for each of the league’s 30 teams, asking – and doing our best to answer – five key questions for every club.
Our previews for all 30 NBA teams are below:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
Central Division
Southeast Division
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Northwest Division
Pacific Division
Southwest Division
The Warriors continued to build a case in 2017/18 to be considered the most impressive NBA dynasty of the 21st century, taking home their third title in four years. Golden State now has a staggering 265-63 (.808) regular-season record since the start of the 2014/15 campaign, and if it weren’t for a collapse in the 2016 NBA Finals, the club would enter the 2018/19 season in search of its fifth straight championship.
No dynasty lasts forever, but three of the Warriors’ four stars remain under contract for 2018/19, and Kevin Durant is a virtual lock to re-sign once the new league year begins. As long as those four players remain on the roster, the organization’s championship window isn’t closing anytime soon.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. What will Durant’s new contract look like?
An April report indicated that Durant would turn down his 2018/19 player option and sign a new deal with the Warriors, and the two-time Finals MVP essentially confirmed as much this month. Meanwhile, general manager Bob Myers has stated publicly that Golden State is willing to give Durant “whatever he wants” on his new contract after the star forward took a team-friendly discount a year ago.
Durant is in a somewhat unusual situation though, so there’s no obvious answer as to what he’ll want. Having agreed to 1+1 contracts in each of the last two summers, he’s ineligible to sign such a deal this year unless he once again settles for less than the maximum. The Early Bird exception prohibits players from signing one-year deals or two-year deals with a second-year option. In order to sign a contract with that structure, the club would have to use the Non-Bird exception, which would limit Durant’s salary to $30MM, well below his projected $35.35MM max.
As such, it might be time for Durant to sign a long-term max contract. However, without full Bird rights, he’s limited to four years rather than five. Of course, a four-year, maximum-salary deal would still result in a massive payday (approximately $158MM based on current cap projections), but if Durant is willing to wait one more year for long-term security, it might make sense for him to accept that one-year, $30MM contract for 2018/19.
In that scenario, Durant would be eligible for a five-year max contract a year from now, when the cap is expected to make a larger jump. If the cap increases to $108MM – the current projection – for 2019/20, a five-year deal could be worth up to approximately $219MM, which would make up for taking less than the max again in ’18/19.
2. Will the Warriors extend Klay Thompson and/or Draymond Green this offseason?
With Stephen Curry locked up for the next four seasons and Durant a candidate to sign a long-term contract this offseason, the Warriors’ focus could shift to their other two All-Stars. Green has two years and $36MM left on his current contract, while Thompson will earn $19MM in the final year of his deal in 2018/19. Both will be extension-eligible this summer.
In the wake of the Warriors’ NBA Finals win, owner Joe Lacob suggested that the team will make an effort to extend both Thompson and Green in the coming months, but one is a more realistic possibility than the other. Green, who says he took a modest discount on his last deal to help accommodate the Dubs’ pursuit of Durant, will reportedly turn down any extension offer he receives from the club this year. That’s not a surprise — he’s still two years away from the open market, and his earning potential would be higher as a free agent.
Thompson, however, is a more interesting case. The low-maintenance star appears to be perfectly happy in Golden State, so even though he could maximize his earning potential by waiting until free agency to sign a new contract, he may be open to getting something done early. In fact, the two sides have already had discussions about a new deal.
The NBA’s rules related to veteran extensions limit Thompson’s maximum extension to four years for about $102MM, which is well below the max, but it’s still a significant sum. If he were to tack that onto the end of his current contract, it would total approximately $121MM over the next five years. Those numbers might strike a perfect balance between how high the Warriors are willing to go to keep their core intact and how far below the max Thompson is willing to go to remain in a perfect situation.
Daryl Morey‘s plan to knock off the Warriors just about worked. Up 3-2 in the Western Conference Finals, the Rockets were faced with the challenge of winning one more game without star point guard Chris Paul in their lineup. Houston couldn’t pull it off, losing Game 6 in Oakland, then suffering through one of the worst shooting slumps in NBA history at home in Game 7.
While it may be tempting to view the series’ result – and the Warriors’ eventual title victory – as an inevitability, no NBA team in the last two years has pushed Golden State like the Rockets did, which is a sign that Houston is on the right track. Now, Morey and the front office will have to ensure they remain on that track, with several important players eligible for free agency this offseason.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. Will Chris Paul and Clint Capela return?
Paul and Capela are two of the top seven or eight free agents available this offseason, and the Rockets could be in trouble if they fail to re-sign either one.
Paul’s impact is obvious. The veteran play-maker took the pressure off James Harden in 2017/18, sharing the ball-handling load when they played alongside each other and running the offense when Harden was on the bench. When the Rockets acquired him from the Clippers last year, CP3 had to opt into the final year of his previous contract rather than signing a new one, but there appeared to be a tacit understanding that he’d get a lucrative, long-term deal from Houston in 2018. That still seems like the probable outcome, and it would be a shock if he left at this point.
As for Capela, he has no All-Star appearances or All-NBA nods to his name, but the 24-year-old’s gradual improvement has made him an important part of this roster. He averaged a double-double (13.9 PPG, 10.8 RPG) in 2017/18, leading the NBA in FG% (.652) and anchoring Houston’s defense (1.9 BPG). While Capela doesn’t stretch the floor like some of the league’s elite young bigs, he does pretty much everything else you’d want from a center, effectively setting screens, finishing at the rim, and protecting the rim on the other end of the court.
Assuming Paul re-signs, the Rockets wouldn’t have any cap room to go out and make another impact signing, so bringing back Capela looks like the club’s best bet for staying strong at the five. The Rockets will just have to hope they aren’t faced with matching a massive offer sheet for Capela, who would be a much safer investment at $15-20MM per year than at $25MM annually.
2. Will Trevor Ariza re-sign with the Rockets?
Although Paul and Capela will be Houston’s top priorities in free agency, Ariza’s positive impact shouldn’t be overlooked, Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals notwithstanding. Up until that last game against the Warriors, Ariza had been a reliable three-and-D mainstay in the Rockets’ rotation all year long, making 36.8% of his three-point attempts during the regular season.
Players like Ariza and P.J. Tucker – who can hit corner threes and match up on defense with dangerous wing scorers – are crucial to Houston’s success, particularly against Golden State, so I expect the Rockets to make a strong effort to retain Ariza.
Ariza’s free agency reminds me a lot of Andre Iguodala‘s a year ago. When Iguodala reached the open market, rival suitors – who recognized that poaching Iggy from the Warriors was the most viable way to hurt the defending champs – were aggressive in pursuing him. The Dubs ultimately won the bidding, but it cost them much more (three years, $48MM) than they would have liked to bring back Iguodala.
Teams in direct competition with the Rockets and in need of three-and-D wings could take a similar approach to Ariza’s free agency this summer, which is why a report suggesting the veteran forward is hoping for a $50-60MM payday isn’t as outrageous as it might seem.
While Ariza may not quite get that high, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he receives an offer worth $30MM+ or $40MM+. If he does, the Rockets will have to make a tough decision on whether he’s worth the investment or whether they can get similar production from more affordable players like Luc Mbah a Moute (who will also be a free agent).
The most successful Raptors team ever finished 2017/18 with 59 wins and claimed the No. 1 seed in the East for the first time in club history. With a revamped offensive approach and a dynamic bench, the Raptors appeared poised to make a deep playoff run, but for a third straight year, LeBron James and the Cavaliers made quick of Dwane Casey‘s club in the postseason.
While no one in the Eastern Conference has defeated a LeBron-led team in the playoffs since 2010, Toronto’s four straight losses reflected particularly poorly on the club, considering the Pacers and Celtics both pushed the Cavs to seven games. As a result, Casey was dismissed and the Raps enter a second straight offseason weighing whether or not to make significant changes to a roster that won 50+ games.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. Was firing Casey and replacing him with Nick Nurse the right move?
Casey, who was named the 2017/18 Coach of the Year by the National Basketball Coaches Association last month, is also a finalist for the NBA’s official Coach of the Year award. When the league announces the winner of that award next week, it’s entirely possible that Casey, now the Pistons’ head coach, will be formally recognized for his excellent work with the Raptors.
Why would a coach who had so much on-court success and who was so highly regarded in Toronto be fired, especially since the club eventually replaced him one of his top assistants? If the Raptors really felt they had to move on from Casey, wouldn’t it make sense to go in an entirely new direction? Wouldn’t Nurse, an assistant on Casey’s staff since 2013, already have shared many of his best ideas?
Those are fair questions, but I still believe there’s some sound logic behind the change. As good as he was at building a culture and developing players, Casey struggled with in-game adjustments, which hurt the Raptors at key moments in the postseason. Additionally, there were whispers in Toronto that Casey, a fairly conservative, defensive-minded coach, was more inclined to lean on his defense-first assistants like Rex Kalamian rather than Nurse, who received much of the credit for the Raps’ new-look offense.
While Nurse may not have been the Raptors’ first choice – the team reportedly coveted Mike Budenholzer before he was hired by the Bucks – he’s a creative thinker who will be willing to take some risks and experiment with new approaches. That could be just with the team needs.
2. Will the Raptors break up their All-Star backcourt?
Best friends Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have excelled in the regular season for years, but remain inconsistent in the Raptors’ biggest postseason games, raising questions about whether the team can ever seriously vie for a title with Lowry and DeRozan as its best players.
Even if the Raptors decide to trade one of its two star guards, it’s unclear if either player would return the sort of value the team would want. Lowry’s abilities as a play-maker, shooter, and defender are underrated to some extent, but he’s also 32 years old and is owed $64MM+ over the next two years.
As for DeRozan, he has established himself as one of the game’s most effective scorers, expanding his shooting range in 2017/18, but he’s still not a consistent three-point threat, and he’s a below-average defender. Like Lowry, he’s pricey too, with three years and $83MM left on his contract.
Lowry and DeRozan have positive trade value, but moving contracts of that magnitude is complicated — when the Pistons traded Blake Griffin and his $29MM+ salary earlier this year, the deal involved six players, plus draft picks. Putting together a blockbuster trade with Lowry or DeRozan at the center that would appeal to both the Raptors and another team would be tough. Making it a deal that allows Toronto to rework its roster without taking a step backward would be even tougher.
Buoyed by savvy free agent signings, last summer’s acquisition of Kyrie Irving, and years of draft picks from 2013’s blockbuster Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce trade, the Celtics improved their regular-season win total for the fourth consecutive season in 2017/18, coming within one game of an NBA Finals appearance.
The team’s performance was made all the more remarkable by the fact that Gordon Hayward missed the entire season and Irving was unavailable during the playoffs. The absence of the Celtics’ two veteran stars allowed youngsters like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Terry Rozier to take on larger roles than anticipated, and those players thrived with their increased responsibilities.
Now, it will be fascinating to see what the C’s look like when their stars get healthy and those players on rookie contracts enter the season confident in their ability to be impact players.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. Will the Celtics make another major trade this offseason?
Before acquiring Irving from the Cavaliers last August, the Celtics seemed unwilling to dip into their treasure trove of assets for the league’s top trade candidates, most notably missing out on Paul George earlier that summer. However, the Irving deal showed that Danny Ainge and his front office were ready to pull the trigger when the right opportunity arises.
Unlike in 2016 and 2017, when the Celtics handed out maximum-salary contracts to Horford and Hayward, respectively, they’ll head into the 2018 offseason without any cap room available. That means the trade market represents Boston’s best chance to make another major splash.
The Celtics still have a ton of trade assets available, including future first-round picks from the Kings, Grizzlies, and Clippers, but they can afford to be patient and wait for the right opportunity, since their championship window should remain open for a while.
If Kawhi Leonard becomes available, he’d make sense as a trade target for the Celtics, but putting together a trade package could be tricky. The club doesn’t currently have any players set to earn between $7MM and $20MM in 2018/19, which makes salary-matching a chore. If Boston doesn’t want to part with Irving, Hayward, or Horford, that would mean building an offer using multiple young players, likely including Brown and Rozier.
A package headlined by Brown, Rozier, and the Kings’ 2019 first-round pick (top-1 protected) would probably appeal to the Spurs, but the Celtics would be rolling the dice on a player who is entering a contract year, coming off a major injury, and reportedly has a preference to play on the other side of the country (for the Lakers).
Given how cautious they were when they discussed trade targets like George and Jimmy Butler, I wouldn’t necessarily expect the C’s to go all-in on a risky investment like Leonard. Especially since we still haven’t seen how good the current core can be when everyone’s healthy.
2. Will the Celtics re-sign Marcus Smart?
Of course, that “current core” includes a couple players who will be free agents this summer, with Smart the most notable veteran in that group. While his shooting numbers haven’t improved during his four-year career, Smart is an elite perimeter defender and a culture-setting presence in Boston. His value extends far beyond his box-score numbers, and the Celtics figure to make a strong effort to keep him around.
With three max contracts already on their books and Brown and Tatum in line for massive new deals down the road, the Celtics will be wary of investing too heavily in Smart. Even if they can avoid the tax this season, the C’s will likely become a taxpaying club down the road, so any long-term commitment warrants serious consideration.
A $10-12MM annual salary for Smart would likely appeal to the Celtics, but the four-year veteran has already said he feels he’s worth more than $12-14MM per year. If another team agrees and signs him to an aggressive offer sheet – say, $60MM over four years – it would be very hard for the C’s to justify matching it.
It’s a good problem to have, but the downside of drafting well and effectively identifying talent is that you can’t necessarily afford to keep everyone. In the coming weeks, Smart may become a casualty of the front office’s success.
The 2017/18 season was essentially a best-case scenario for the Sixers and true believers in “The Process.” Former top picks Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons stayed healthy and established themselves as bona-fide NBA stars, and despite getting virtually nothing from 2017’s No. 1 selection Markelle Fultz, the Sixers piled up 52 wins, earned the No. 3 seed in the East, and advanced to the second round of the playoffs.
Fultz’s lost rookie season is somewhat concerning, and it’s not clear if Philadelphia is quite out of the woods yet when it comes to Embiid’s health, but this is a team on the rise. With another lottery pick at their disposal in 2018, along with a significant chunk of cap room, the Sixers are also better positioned than just about any other contender to make another major addition or two to their roster this offseason.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. Will the Sixers be able to lure a top free agent to Philadelphia?
With a playmaking point guard (Simmons) and a big man who can knock down outside shots and protect the rim (Embiid), the Sixers have two key cornerstone pieces in place. Using this summer’s cap flexibility, the club should now make it a priority to add a wing with size who can stretch the floor. Fortunately, two of 2018’s top free agents – LeBron James and Paul George – fit that bill.
If he wants to continue his streak of NBA Finals appearances and add more titles to his résumé, Philadelphia is a logical landing spot for James. The club should be able to create enough cap space to sign him outright, meaning there would be no need to give up valuable assets to acquire him in a trade. On top of that, this is a team that already had enough talent to win 52 games and a playoff series. Adding LeBron to the mix would create a force to be reckoned with in the East.
Still, as silly as it feels to play devil’s advocate to the idea of signing the best player in the NBA, I can’t help but wonder if George makes more sense as a target for the 76ers. Embiid and Simmons put their mark in the franchise in 2017/18, establishing the Sixers as their team. They’re still on the rise and have the potential to be the top two players on a championship club someday — having them take a back seat to LeBron might create some chemistry issues both on the court and off it.
Of course, if LeBron wants to join the Sixers, I don’t expect the team to turn him down, and I’m sure it’d be a fine fit in the long run. But if landing James is the club’s No. 1 offseason priority, George makes for an intriguing 1A. His stints in Indiana and Oklahoma City have shown that he may be more comfortable when he’s not a club’s go-to option, and he’s exactly the sort of player any contending team would love to have as a second or third scoring option and a lock-down defender on the wing.
2. What’s the best route to maximum-salary cap room for the Sixers?
Whether they pursue James, George, another impact free agent, or all of the above, the Sixers will probably need to create a little more cap room than they currently have available. Our estimate currently has them about $25MM under the cap, assuming they keep their nine players on guaranteed contracts, along with T.J. McConnell, Richaun Holmes, and their two first-round picks.
Based on a $101MM salary cap projection for 2018/19, the Sixers would have to get to $30.3MM in room for a maximum-salary deal for George or another free agent with 7-9 years of NBA experience. For James or another player with 10+ years of experience, $35.35MM in cap room would be required.
The 76ers can actually get to $30.3MM+ in cap room pretty painlessly without even having to get another team involved. Using their No. 26 pick on a draft-and-stash prospect and waiving and stretching Bayless’ expiring contract would do the trick.
However, in order to get to $35MM+ in space, attaching that late first-round pick to Bayless in a trade would be the preferred option. If the Sixers were to package Bayless and the No. 26 pick in a trade without taking back any salary in return, the club could then create enough room for a $35.35MM offer by waiving one of Holmes or McConnell.
With plenty of appealing assets under team control, there are other paths Philadelphia could take to open up cap room. If a marquee free agent targeted by the Sixers wants to sign with the team, the front office will find a way to make it happen.
No team has had a more dramatic 2017/18 league year than the Cavaliers, who dealt with Kyrie Irving‘s trade request last offseason, underwent multiple roster overhauls, improbably made it back to the NBA Finals, and are now facing the prospect of losing LeBron James — again.
The Cavaliers’ comeback in the 2016 NBA Finals to erase a 3-1 deficit and knock off the 73-win Warriors earned James the right to leave on better terms this time around than he did in 2010, but the club would still prefer to have him stick around a little longer. His decision will ultimately be the catalyst that determines which direction the Cavs will go for the next several years.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. So… what’s LeBron going to do?
The two best players in the NBA are eligible for free agency this summer, but Kevin Durant is a lock to re-sign with the Warriors, making LeBron’s decision the offseason’s most important subplot. At this point, his options have been discussed ad nauseam. The Lakers, Sixers, Celtics, Rockets, Clippers, Spurs, Heat, and even the Warriors look like potential threats to the Cavs, and that’s not taking into account any potential wild-card suitors that arise during his decision-making process.
I’ve already written at length about the various factors that will play a role in James’ decision, but even after endless speculation, it doesn’t feel like we’re any closer to figuring out where he’ll end up. Every potential landing spot has its pros and cons, which could work in Cleveland’s favor, forcing the future Hall-of-Famer to seriously consider the possibility of simply sticking with the Cavs rather than leaving for any number of imperfect options.
Still, it would be somewhat surprising if James re-upped with the Cavs. He accomplished what he set out to to do when he returned to the franchise in 2014, winning a title for his hometown team. From an on-court perspective, there are better opportunities out there for him. From a marketing and lifestyle perspective, moving to a bigger market like Los Angeles would make sense. It just seems like there’s too much working against the Cavs.
That doesn’t mean that a return to Cleveland is out of the question, but if I had to bet on James starting the 2018/19 season with either the Cavs or one of the NBA’s other 29 teams, I’d take the field.
2. What should the Cavaliers do with the No. 8 pick?
While it’s possible that James will no longer be a Cavalier at this time next month, the team can’t approach the offseason as if he’s already gone. By all accounts, LeBron has yet to make a final decision, so the Cavs’ moves in the next week or two could push him in one direction or the other.
That puts the Cavs in an incredibly tough spot with their lottery pick. If the club knew James would leave, it would make sense for the front office to target the player with the highest long-term ceiling at No. 8, in the hopes of identifying a franchise player for the post-LeBron era. With no assurances one way or the other, Cleveland will have to straddle the fence, finding a player who could play alongside James or who could develop and thrive on a new-look Cavs roster.
Of course, if the Cavs really want to make a strong pitch to James, packaging the No. 8 pick in a deal for another star would represent the all-in approach. Even if the club could find a workable trade for someone like Kemba Walker or Kawhi Leonard though, it would provide no guarantees on the LeBron front. Both Walker and Leonard are eligible for free agency in 2019 and aren’t well positioned to sign extensions before then, so it’s unlikely that acquiring one of them would prompt James to commit to more than one extra year in Cleveland.
Ultimately, the Cavs probably need to take the best player available at No. 8, regardless of that player’s fit, his ability to make an immediate impact, or his appeal to trade partners. If need be, the front office could always shop that player in July after finding out what James plans to do.
The Trail Blazers improved their record by eight games in 2017/18 and claimed the No. 3 seed in a competitive Western Conference. However, their season ended the same way it did the year before, with a first-round playoff sweep. And this time around, that sweep came at the hands of the underdog Pelicans rather than the eventual champions in Golden State.
Portland’s roster will need to undergo some tweaks in order to make the club a contender capable of seriously challenging the Warriors and the other top teams in the West, but a 2016 spending spree has limited the front office’s ability to make adjustments. Finding a way to make upgrades will be the primary challenge this offseason for the cap-strapped Blazers.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. Will the Blazers consider breaking up their star backcourt?
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were largely responsible for the Blazers’ 49-win season, combining for 48.3 PPG and 10.0 APG between them. Lillard, a three-time All-Star, earned First Team All-NBA honors for the first time in his career this spring, and McCollum is a star in his own right, averaging 21.7 PPG with a .412 3PT% over the last three seasons and virtually never missing a game.
Still, there’s a nagging sense that the Blazers won’t ever win a championship as long as Lillard and McCollum are their two best players. Unlike in Golden State, where the Stephen Curry/Klay Thompson duo thrives due to their varied skill sets, neither of Portland’s star guards is an elite wing defender or excels as a simple catch-and-shoot option on offense.
The Blazers have repeatedly insisted that they won’t break up their star backcourt, but it’s an idea worth considering. Lillard almost certainly won’t go anywhere as long as he’s happy in the Pacific Northwest, but finding the right McCollum deal could kill two birds with one stone — McCollum could net the Blazers an impact player who better balances the roster, and moving his $25.76MM salary might help the team better balance its books.
A shakeup of that magnitude is probably unlikely for a team that had the success Portland did in 2017/18, so I expect both guards to stick with the Blazers to start next season. Still, at some point the front office will have to seriously weigh the idea of a change. If it happens as soon as this summer, it wouldn’t be a total shock.
2. Will the Trail Blazers re-sign Jusuf Nurkic?
Assuming the Blazers move forward with Lillard and McCollum, it’s crucial that the duo is complemented with an impact player in the frontcourt, preferably one who can protect the rim and help make up for defensive lapses on the perimeter. Nurkic initially appeared to be that guy after coming over in a midseason trade with the Nuggets in 2017.
While Nurkic had a solid showing in 2017/18, averaging 14.3 PPG and 9.0 RPG with 1.4 BPG, he struggled with consistency on defense, and his offensive game is still somewhat limited. Nurkic will only turn 24 years old in August, so there’s plenty of time for him to continue to develop, but with restricted free agency looming, the Blazers will have to decide how much of an investment his upside is worth. If Portland bets big on Nurkic, the team could be locked into its current core for years, so a long-term deal is a risk.
On the other hand, Zach Collins may not be ready for a major role and fellow big man Ed Davis is a free agent this offseason too. If the Blazers let Nurkic walk, they’d not only be losing him for nothing — they’d also be potentially creating a major hole in their frontcourt without freeing up any extra cap room to fill that hole.
The Blazers’ decision on Nurkic will be a fascinating one. If another team like the Mavericks swoops in with an aggressive offer sheet in the range of $15-20MM per year, matching that offer would be a tough pill for Portland to swallow, especially since insisting on locking up restricted free agents to big-money deals in 2016 helped create the Blazers’ current cap troubles. Still, Nurkic might have a higher ceiling than any of those previous RFAs, and the club won’t want him to become the one that got away.
The trade that sent Paul George to Oklahoma City in exchange for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, widely panned at the time, was the catalyst for the Pacers‘ surprisingly strong 2017/18 season. Although they were unable to knock off the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs, the Pacers won 48 regular-season games and then gave LeBron James‘ squad all it could handle in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals.
Having cleverly sidestepped the prospect of a potential rebuild, the Pacers are now in position to keep fortifying an impressive roster, given their cap flexibility.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. Will Thaddeus Young opt out of his contract?
The second-highest-paid player on the Pacers’ roster in 2017/18, Young also averaged the second-most minutes per game behind Oladipo, playing an important role in the team’s success. Still, as a frontcourt player who doesn’t protect the rim or make many outside shots, Young probably wouldn’t be one of the league’s most coveted free agents if he opts out of his contract this summer.
Nonetheless, Young is reportedly strongly considering the possibility of declining a player option worth $13.76MM. The veteran forward, who turns 30 on Thursday, may never again have a better chance to land a long-term contract than he does this summer, so even if he has take a pay cut for 2018/19, signing a multiyear deal and receiving some long-term security could be worth it.
Young’s decision will have a significant impact on the Pacers’ cap outlook for next season. If he opts out and doesn’t re-sign in Indiana, the club could potentially double its available cap room, which would create new opportunities in the free agent and/or trade market.
The best outcome for both sides may see Young turn down his player option in order to sign a new contract with the Pacers. For instance, an agreement in the three-year, $30MM range would give Young a good reason to turn down a one-year payday of $13MM+, and it would open up some extra cap space for Indiana this summer.
2. Will the Pacers retain their veterans on partially guaranteed contracts?
The majority of players around the NBA who are on non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts for 2018/19 will earn the minimum salary if they’re retained. That’s not the case for three Pacers veterans, who would make a combined $30.5MM if they stick with Indiana.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($10.5MM) and Darren Collison ($10MM) signed similar two-year contracts with Indiana last summer, and now both look like good bets to return for next season. Bogdanovic only has a $1.5MM guarantee, but he had an excellent year as the Pacers’ starting small forward, averaging a career-high 14.3 PPG and knocking down 40.2% of his three-pointers. At $10.5MM on an expiring deal, he’s a solid value, and the same can be said for Collison, who has a $2MM partial guarantee for now. As Indiana’s starting point guard, he recorded 12.4 PPG and 5.3 APG to go along with a league-leading .468 3PT%.
That leaves Jefferson, who also has a $10MM salary for next season, with $4MM currently guaranteed. Unlike Bogdanovic and Collison, the 33-year-old isn’t a regular rotation player for the Pacers, having established new career lows in minutes in each of his two seasons in Indiana. The Pacers would save $6MM by waiving Jefferson, and I’d be surprised if they don’t take advantage of that opportunity.
It’s possible that the outlooks for these players could change — if the Pacers get a shot at a marquee free agent, perhaps Bogdanovic and/or Collison would need to be waived to create extra cap space. If Indiana needs to reach the minimum cap floor, perhaps Jefferson’s salary will get guaranteed. But for now, the club’s decisions seem fairly straightforward.
After the in-season acquisition of DeMarcus Cousins didn’t pay immediate dividends for the Pelicans down the stretch in 2016/17, head coach Alvin Gentry and GM Dell Demps weren’t a lock to stick with the team last summer. New Orleans retained both, however, and the club was rewarded for its patience with its best regular-season record since 2009 and its deepest playoff run since 2008.
With Anthony Davis having become a perennial MVP candidate and Jrue Holiday establishing himself as one of the NBA’s best perimeter defenders, the Pelicans have a pair of building blocks under contract for multiple years. Now, the team will have to figure out how to retain enough pieces around those two stars to remain in contention going forward, particularly with two major contributors – Cousins and Rajon Rondo – up for new deals.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. Will the Pelicans re-sign Cousins?
In 48 games before he tore his Achilles tendon, Cousins put up some truly incredible numbers, racking up 25.2 PPG, 12.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.6 BPG, and 1.6 SPG. For good measure, he also led the team with 2.2 three-pointers per contest.
That production made Cousins an obvious candidate for a long-term, maximum-salary contract, but his ongoing recovery from Achilles surgery complicates matters significantly. While Achilles tears aren’t necessarily career-ending injuries, they’re often career-altering ailments, with players never quite looking the same as they did prior to the injury.
There’s no guarantee that will be the case with Cousins. It’s possible he’ll return to the court next season and look just as good as ever. However, that’s virtually impossible to predict, and teams willing to gamble on that sort of prognosis will have to pony up the max – or something close to it – months before Cousins is ready to return to action to find out if they’re right.
After giving up a slew of assets for Cousins just 16 months ago, the Pelicans probably can’t afford to just let him walk for nothing, especially since doing so wouldn’t get the team below the cap. That leaves two probable scenarios — either New Orleans brings back the ex-King, or the club negotiates a sign-and-trade deal to send him elsewhere.
Given the overlap between Davis’ and Cousins’ skill sets, the idea of signing-and-trading Cousins for a wing who might fit better alongside Davis and Holiday is intriguing. But sign-and-trades require two teams and the player to all be on the same page, and roadblocks can often get in the way of finalizing a deal. So that scenario might be a last resort for the Pelicans, whose preference will be to bring back Cousins on a shorter-term or less expensive deal that would mitigate the risk in case his Achilles continue to be an issue going forward. It remains to be seen whether the star center will be on board for that sort of contract or whether he’ll receive better offers.
2. Will the Pelicans re-sign Rondo?
While Rondo isn’t the sort of marquee free agent that Cousins is, the Pelicans won’t overlook him this offseason. Not every stop in Rondo’s NBA career has been a huge success, but teams that like him really like him, and that appeared to be the case in New Orleans, where he was credited for helping set the culture for a team that won 48 games and a playoff series.
Rondo is coming off a one-year, $3.3MM pact, and will be in line for a raise this summer. If the Pelicans bring back Cousins or sign-and-trade him for another highly-paid veteran, the club will have to be cautious about how much it offers Rondo.
New Orleans already has nearly $93MM in guaranteed money on its books for 2018/19, and re-signing Cousins could add another $25MM+ to that figure. If Rondo commands a salary in the $8-10MM range, the Pelicans would be into luxury-tax territory unless they can cut costs elsewhere.
That doesn’t mean that Rondo won’t return — it simply means that the franchise will have to think long and hard about where its priorities lie and how it wants to spends its money. I imagine the Pelicans will do all they can to make sure the veteran point guard is back on the roster next season.
