Five Key Offseason Questions

Five Key Offseason Questions: Utah Jazz

June 16th, 2018 at 6:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Losing a homegrown All-Star like Gordon Hayward in free agency last summer could have set the Jazz back years. Instead, it only set them back by three regular-season wins, as the club returned to the postseason and once again advanced to the second round before being bounced from the playoffs.

It was a very encouraging year for the Jazz, showing they’d be able to withstand the loss of a franchise cornerstone without slipping back into the lottery. Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell helped smooth the transition to the post-Hayward era, emerging as a long-term building block in his own right. Now, Utah will have to figure out what roster moves are necessary to give the franchise a better chance at making a slightly deeper playoff run.

Here are five key questions facing the Jazz this summer:

1. Will the Jazz re-sign Derrick Favors?

For a time, it seemed as if a frontcourt combination of Favors and Rudy Gobert simply wasn’t compatible, with Favors struggling to make an impact alongside Gobert and thriving when given a chance to handle the center position on his own. However, Quin Snyder and the Jazz made it work in the second half of the 2017/18 season.

In Favors, the Jazz have not only a reliable backup center for Gobert who can step in and play starter minutes in the event of an injury, but a power forward capable of matching up with other teams’ two-big lineups. Neither Favors nor Gobert can shoot from beyond the arc, but Favors has a mid-range game that stretches the floor to some extent, and as long as they’re on the court with two or three other players capable of hitting threes, it seems to work.

Assuming Utah is confident that the pairing can continue to have success, I’d expect the club to make a strong effort to re-sign Favors as a free agent this summer. If the Jazz have the opportunity to land a versatile impact player at the four, the team could let Favors walk and look to add a more affordable backup center separately, but if not, the Jazz have the cap flexibility to outbid teams that only have the mid-level exception available. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Favors land a deal worth slightly more than the MLE — perhaps three years for $30-35MM.

2. Will Dante Exum‘s time in Utah continue?

Selected right after Joel Embiid and Aaron Gordon and right before Marcus Smart and Julius Randle in the 2014 draft, Exum is perhaps the only player in that group who isn’t assured a big payday this summer. Various injuries have limited him to 80 regular-season games in the last three seasons, but Exum is still just 22 years old, and flashed tantalizing play-making potential when he got healthy down the stretch in 2017/18.

With Ricky Rubio under contract for one more season and Raul Neto also eligible for restricted free agency this summer, Utah’s long-term outlook at the point guard spot is somewhat hazy. As such, it might make sense for the club to invest in Exum on a sort of a bridge deal for two or three years. If he stays healthy and keeps improving, he could be a ready for a bigger role by the time Rubio’s contract expires. If he continues to battle injuries and fails to make major strides, then the Jazz can get out from under his deal before too long.

Finding a price point that works for both Exum and the Jazz could be a challenge. Near the end of the regular season, one front office executive estimated that a two-year offer worth a total of $18-20MM might be enough for a rival team to pry the former fifth overall pick out of Utah, and I wouldn’t be shocked if a team drew up an offer sheet even more aggressive than that. A team like the Suns, for instance, could afford to roll the dice on a young player like Exum developing into their point guard of the future.

If an offer sheet of that caliber doesn’t materialize, the Jazz should be able to retain Exum on a more reasonable deal, perhaps in the range of $7-8MM per year.

3. How can the Jazz avoid simply running back last year’s roster?

If the Jazz do re-sign Favors and Exum to salaries in the neighborhood of my estimates, it would likely eliminate the team’s chances at cap room. That would leave the mid-level exception as the club’s best tool for adding a key rotation player.

Utah could use some offensive help, perhaps at shooting guard or small forward, and there should be a handful of free agents out there who fit that bill and would sign at a mid-level rate. But would any of them move the needle substantially for the Jazz, taking the franchise from a solid playoff team to a legit title contender? Probably not.

It may be unreasonable to expect the Jazz to take a big step toward serious championship contention this summer, considering the sort of competition they’re up against in the Western Conference, but if that sort of difference-making player is out there, the team will probably find him on the trade market rather than in free agency. Taking that into account, I’d expect the Utah front office to be very active in trade talks this summer.

4. Who are Utah’s best trade chips?

Gobert and Mitchell are the foundation pieces in Utah, and won’t be going anywhere. It’s possible that the team would part with Rubio, Joe Ingles, or Jae Crowder in the right deal, but those players thrived with the Jazz last season and are good fits on the roster going forward. I wouldn’t expect them to be dealt.

Of the players on guaranteed contracts, that leaves a pair of potential trade candidates. One is second-year center Tony Bradley, who appeared in just nine NBA games in his rookie season. Bradley played well in the G League, averaging a double-double in 24 games, but he’s still probably not ready for a regular role — there may not be a regular role available at the five for the foreseeable future in Utah if Favors is re-signed, so Bradley certainly shouldn’t be untouchable.

From a salary-matching perspective, the more logical trade chip is Alec Burks, who will earn about $11.5MM in 2018/19. Burks has shown promise during his seven seasons in Utah and has even been a productive contributor at times, but his health has been an ongoing issue and he’s not a crucial part of the rotation. His contract will expire in 2019, which could appeal to potential trade partners, even if they don’t envision a huge role for him.

Outside of Burks and Bradley, Utah could use draft picks as sweeteners in a trade offer for an impact player. If they prefer to keep their 2018 first-rounder (No. 21 overall) to add a low-cost wing to replace Burks, the Jazz could wait until after the draft, then dangle any of their future first-rounders, including 2019’s. The club also has a couple extra second-rounders coming its way in 2021 and 2022, which could be expendable.

5. What will happen with the players on non-guaranteed contracts?

Burks’ $11.5MM salary is a good start for salary matching, but it wouldn’t be enough for many of Utah’s potential trade targets. For instance, if the Jazz want to make a play for Wizards three-and-D wing Otto Porter, they’d need to send out over $20MM in salary.

In order to reach that figure without giving up any of their most important contributors, the Jazz could include some combination of their players on non-guaranteed contracts. Currently, Thabo Sefolosha ($5.25MM), Jonas Jerebko ($4.2MM), Ekpe Udoh ($3.36MM), and Royce O’Neale ($1.38MM) don’t have guarantees for 2018/19.

O’Neale, one of the NBA’s best bargains for the next two years, almost certainly won’t be going anywhere, but the other three veterans could be trade chips. All three had fairly modest roles on the Jazz last season, so it likely wouldn’t cost much to replace their production. Attaching a couple of them to Burks along with some draft picks would create an interesting trade package, particularly since they’d all be on expiring deals.

The league’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement does complicate matters to some extent — under the old system, players like Sefolosha, Jerebko, and Udoh could be used to match salaries in a trade, then waived by their new teams before their contracts became guaranteed. That’s no longer possible. As long as their contracts remain non-guaranteed, they count as $0 for salary-matching purposes in a trade, so any team acquiring them would have to guarantee those salaries.

Jerebko had a strong season in 2017/18, but Sefolosha is coming off a major injury and Udoh played pretty sparingly, so their value will be limited. Still, their salaries won’t exactly break the bank. If the Jazz end up not needing to use any of those three players in trades, there’s a chance they all return. Jerebko is probably the best best bet to be back, while Sefolosha’s future will hinge on his health. As for Udoh, he’d be expendable if the team decides it doesn’t need to spend more than the minimum for a third-string center.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Jazz financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Rudy Gobert ($23,491,573)
Ricky Rubio ($14,975,000)
Joe Ingles ($13,045,455)
Alec Burks ($11,536,515)
Jae Crowder ($7,305,825)
Donovan Mitchell ($3,111,480)
Tony Bradley ($1,679,520)
Total: $75,145,368

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Thabo Sefolosha ($5,250,000)¹
Jonas Jerebko ($4,200,000)²
Ekpe Udoh ($3,360,000)³
David Stockton ($1,544,951)⁴
Royce O’Neale ($1,378,242)
Total: $15,733,193

Restricted Free Agents

Dante Exum ($4,333,931 qualifying offer / $14,977,156 cap hold): Bird rights
Raul Neto ($1,839,228 qualifying offer / $1,839,228 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $16,816,383

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Derrick Favors ($18,000,000): Bird rights
No. 21 overall pick ($2,056,693)
Total: $20,056,693

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

The Jazz aren’t typically major players in free agency, so our cap projection assumes they won’t make an effort to create cap room this summer. With $75MM+ in guaranteed contracts and a $2MM cap hold for their first-round pick, the Jazz would almost certainly remain an over-the-cap team if they re-sign Exum and Favors and bring back some or all of their players on non-guaranteed contracts.
On the other hand, if the Jazz do want to clear cap space, they could do so. Their seven guaranteed salaries along with cap charges for their first-round pick and four empty roster slots would result in a total team salary of $80,527,305. That would mean more than $20MM in cap room — but it would also mean renouncing or waiving Exum, Favors, Sefolosha, Jerebko, O’Neale, and others. That’s probably not realistic.

Footnotes:

Sefolosha’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.
Jerebko’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 9.
Udoh’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 9.
Stockton’s exact contract details, including guarantee info, aren’t yet known.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 15th, 2018 at 10:12am CST by Luke Adams

After losing Kevin Durant during the summer of 2016, the Thunder made an effort to reintroduce some star power to their roster during the 2017 offseason, finalizing trades for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to create a new “Big Three” along with Russell Westbrook.

However, Oklahoma City sacrificed important depth in those deals, and it came back to haunt the team, particularly after Andre Roberson went down with a season-ending injury — the bench ranked 29th in the NBA in scoring during the regular season, and was dead last in PPG during the playoffs. Whether or not George and Anthony are still on the roster next season, OKC will have to find a way to replenish its rotation with reliable contributors.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will George re-sign with the Thunder?

A year ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that George would be traded to a team like the Lakers – his preferred landing spot – or the Celtics, who had more than enough assets to put together any number of competitive trade offers. The Thunder ended up shocking the world by snatching George out of Indiana in a blockbuster deal that virtually no one saw coming.

Twelve months later, it’s tempting to once again write the Thunder off as a long-term home for George, particularly after the team’s unceremonious first-round exit from the postseason. There’s a clear path for George to return home to Los Angeles and join the Lakers, who can create enough cap room to sign two stars this offseason.

Still, we keep hearing that the Thunder remain confident about their chances of re-signing George, and Marc Stein of The New York Times wrote this week in his newsletter that there’s a “growing belief” around the league that the club’s confidence is well-founded. I’m still not entirely convinced that George sticks in Oklahoma City. After all, the last time the Thunder were conveying this sort of confidence heading into a star player’s free agency, he bolted for the Bay Area.

It would be fascinating to see what happens if the Thunder do re-sign George. A maximum-salary contract for the two-way forward would start at $30MM+. With about $89MM in guaranteed money already on the club’s 2018/19 cap, and Anthony’s expensive player option likely to add another $28MM or so to that figure, OKC probably can’t really afford George unless costs are cut elsewhere.

2. Will Anthony be on the Thunder’s roster in 2018/19?

Whether or not George is back, Anthony’s player option is a problem. He hasn’t technically opted in yet, but there’s no chance he’ll turn down a $27.9MM+ salary. He’d be lucky to receive a third of that on the open market.

Anthony’s situation is somewhat reminiscent of Dwyane Wade opting into his $23MM+ contract with the Bulls last June. Wade was unlikely to ever get that sort of payday again, so he couldn’t pass up the money, but it quickly became clear that he had no interest in playing for the rebuilding Bulls, and the two sides reached a buyout agreement that saw Wade give up about $8MM in order to sign with a team of his choice.

While the Thunder and Anthony could reach a similar agreement, Carmelo may not quite as eager as Wade was to leave his current situation. Chicago was entering a full-fledged rebuild, whereas OKC hopes to contend again next season, particularly if George returns. Paradoxically though, it looks like there’s no way the Thunder could reasonably keep Anthony on board at his current cap figure if they re-sign George. The tax penalties would be too high.

If George re-signs, I’d expect Anthony to be waived and stretched, even if he’s not willing to give up any money in a buyout. Stretching the final year of his contract over three seasons would reduce his cap charge by about $18.6MM, creating some badly-needed relief for the Thunder. Even if George isn’t back, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see OKC take that route, since doing so would move team salary well below the tax line and would generate some flexibility for other roster moves.

3. Will the Thunder re-sign Jerami Grant?

Outside of the sheer cost of Anthony’s 2018/19 salary, another argument against the Thunder bringing him back lies in his and Grant’s on/off-court numbers in the postseason. The sample size is admittedly small, but the numbers are still striking.

In 133 minutes with Grant on the court, the Thunder had a net rating of +8.9, compared to a -17.1(!) rating in the 155 minutes he sat. The club’s net rating when Anthony played was -14.3 in 194 minutes, compared to +13.5 in the 94 minutes he was on the bench.

Again, it’s probably dangerous to draw conclusions based on a six-game series, but those numbers won’t be forgotten as the Thunder think long and hard about investing in the 24-year-old Grant and divesting themselves of the 34-year-old Anthony.

Unfortunately for the Thunder, Grant will be an unrestricted free agent this July, meaning the team won’t have the right of first refusal if he gets a favorable offer from a rival suitor. Outside of George, Grant will be Oklahoma City’s top free agent priority this offseason, and if George walks, I’d expect the Thunder to do all they can to make sure Grant doesn’t get away too. But if the young forward receives an offer in the $8-10MM range from another team, it might be tough for OKC to justify matching that offer and spending a significant chunk of its available money on a single player.

4. Do the Thunder have any good trade pieces left?

When the Thunder acquired George and Anthony last offseason, the team surrendered Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Enes Kanter, and Doug McDermott to make it happen. Giving up those players not only depleted Oklahoma City’s depth — it also left the team somewhat lacking in trade chips going forward.

Westbrook isn’t going anywhere, and Steven Adams and Roberson probably aren’t either. That leaves Alex Abrines, Patrick Patterson, Kyle Singler, Terrance Ferguson, and Dakari Johnson as the only possible trade chips under contract besides Anthony, who would be very difficult to move. Singler will have negative value, and Patterson might too after an injury-plagued 2017/18 campaign. Abrines holds a little appeal, and Ferguson would be a good chip, but the Thunder would be better off keeping them rather than making another two-for-one deal that hurts the bench.

While more blockbuster deals seem unlikely for the Thunder, given their lack of trade candidates, the team does have all of its second-round picks, so smaller-scale deals for a bench player or two are possible.

5. How can the Thunder fill the holes on their roster?

With few good trade options and no first-round pick, the Thunder will have limited avenues for filling the gaps on their squad. This is especially true if George returns. I imagine team ownership will be reluctant to pay another big luxury-tax bill, so finding complementary players may simply come down to targeting veterans willing to come play alongside Westbrook and George on minimum-salary contracts.

If George and Anthony aren’t back, the Thunder should have the opportunity to go shopping for slightly higher-priced free agents. In that scenario, the team would have the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception at its disposal.

Splitting up the MLE among two or three players and using the BAE to sign another veteran could allow the Thunder to add a handful of players to their roster before having to resort to minimum-salary offers. They still won’t have a shot at top-tier – or even second-tier – free agents using that approach, but they’d at least avoid having to sit out the first stage of free agency entirely.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Thunder financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Russell Westbrook ($35,350,000)¹
Steven Adams ($24,157,304)
Andre Roberson ($10,000,000)
Alex Abrines ($5,455,236)
Patrick Patterson ($5,451,600)
Kyle Singler ($4,996,000)
Terrance Ferguson ($2,118,840)
Dakari Johnson ($1,378,242)
Total: $88,907,222

Player Options

Carmelo Anthony ($27,928,140)²
Paul George ($20,703,384)
Total: $48,631,524

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Josh Huestis ($2,243,326): Bird rights
Corey Brewer ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Nick Collison ($1,499,698): Bird rights³
Raymond Felton ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Jerami Grant ($1,499,698): Bird rights
Total: $8,242,118

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

While the Thunder currently have less than $89MM in guaranteed salary on their books, Anthony’s early termination option essentially eliminates the opportunity for cap room. And if the Thunder want to re-sign George after he declines his player option, they’ll have to keep a massive cap hold on their books to retain his Bird rights. Even if George were to depart and Anthony were to be waived and stretched, the Thunder’s total team salary would still be $101,541,846 (eight guaranteed salaries, Anthony’s dead money, and cap charges for four empty roster spots).

Footnotes:

Westbrook will have a maximum salary worth 35% of the salary cap. This projected max salary is based on a $101MM cap, but it could be higher or lower depending on where the cap lands.
Anthony’s option is technically an early termination option. However, it essentially functions the same as a player option does. To opt into the final year of his contract, he’ll simply have to decline that option rather than exercising it.
Collison has announced his retirement.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 14th, 2018 at 2:40pm CST by Luke Adams

It took until overtime of the 82nd game of the season to do it, but the Timberwolves earned a playoff spot this year for the first time since 2004, ending one of the longest postseason droughts in professional sports. While the club was quickly dispatched in the first round by the top-seeded Rockets, it was a successful year in Minnesota and there’s reason for optimism going forward. After all, two of the team’s top scorers – Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins – are still in their early 20s, with plenty of room to keep improving.

Still, this roster will get very expensive very fast, with Wiggins’ maximum-salary deal set to hit the books, and pricey new extensions for Towns and Jimmy Butler likely to follow. The Wolves’ challenge will be finding a way to retain their most important contributors while filling the roster around them with role players who fit well and don’t break the bank.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will Towns sign an extension? If so, how much will it be worth?

Towns is coming off his first All-Star appearance and first All-NBA nod, which will make extension negotiations between the Timberwolves and his camp very interesting. There’s virtually no doubt that Towns’ next deal will be a maximum-salary contract, but if he earns a spot on the All-NBA squad, he’d eligible for a max worth 30% of the cap, rather than just the 25% he’d typically be in line for.

That potential eligibility doesn’t mean that the Wolves have to offer Towns the full 30% max if he qualifies, but he’s clearly a more important foundational piece than Wiggins, who signed for the 25% max last offseason. I’d expect Minnesota’s contract offer to reflect that.

It’s possible that the Wolves will wait until Towns’ restricted free agency in 2019 to put that long-term offer on the table in order to maximize flexibility, since his cap hold will be lower than his projected maximum salary. The team currently seems unlikely to have cap room available next summer either way though, so there’s no real incentive to wait. Getting an extension done within the next few months may also help ease any lingering tension between the franchise and its star center.

2. Can Towns, Wiggins, and Butler co-exist long-term?

Speaking of that reported “tension,” I wouldn’t expect it to become a destructive force that sinks the current version of the Timberwolves, but it’s worth keeping an eye on — which is just what rival teams are doing. The source of that tension hasn’t been specified, but there were whispers earlier in the year that Wiggins didn’t love being the third option behind his two star teammates, and it’s possible Towns experienced some similar frustrations after his shot attempts dipped by nearly 20% from 2016/17 to 2017/18.

While those teams who are monitoring the situation in Minnesota would love for Towns to become available, Wiggins is the most likely trade candidate of the three. He has yet to become the kind of two-way star the Wolves envisioned when they acquired him for Kevin Love back in 2014, and while there’s still time for him to evolve into that player, many of his skills overlap with what Butler brings the team, which could stunt his growth to some extent.

A stronger outside shooter who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to succeed – think Klay Thompson – would be a better fit with the Wolves’ current roster, but a favorable deal will be hard to find. With Wiggins’ mammoth five-year extension about to take effect after a solid but unspectacular season, his trade value isn’t at its peak.

The Wolves probably won’t break up their “Big Three” this summer, but I think something’s got to give in the long term. If all three players stick with the team and Towns and Butler get new deals for 2019/20, they could easily be earning a combined $90MM that year, and they’d only get more expensive from there. That’s a huge price to pay for three stars who might not perfectly complement one another.

3. Who is on the trade block?

While Wiggins may not technically be on the trade block this offseason, I believe the Wolves would be willing to move him in the right deal. There are other players on the roster whom the team might try a little harder to trade.

The most obvious trade candidate is Gorgui Dieng, who saw his role reduced last season due to the arrival of Taj Gibson, a Tom Thibodeau favorite. A solid rebounder and rim protector whose offensive game is somewhat limited, Dieng can play both power forward and center, making him a good third big man to have on a roster. However, Thibodeau’s approach to his rotation means Dieng doesn’t see nearly enough action to warrant the team’s investment in him — he has three years and $48MM remaining on his contract.

Dieng doesn’t have positive trade value at this point, so the Wolves would probably need to attach an asset to him to make a deal, whether that means a first-round pick or perhaps a youngster like Justin Patton or Tyus Jones.

Elsewhere on the roster, Gibson and Jeff Teague probably aren’t strong candidates to be moved, since they were the veterans hand-picked by Thibodeau last summer. Cole Aldrich, whose $7MM salary for 2018/19 is only guaranteed for about $2MM, makes for an interesting trade piece, since he could be used to match salaries, then waived by his new team. If Minnesota intends to take advantage of that though, it will need to be soon, as Aldrich’s salary becomes fully guaranteed before the new league year begins.

4. Will Derrick Rose and/or Nemanja Bjelica be back?

Having already brought Butler and Gibson with him to Minnesota, Thibodeau didn’t surprise anyone by signing his former MVP to a rest-of-season contract in March. Rose, who had been traded by the Cavs and waived by the Jazz at the deadline, appeared unlikely to make an impact for an NBA team at that point, but Thibodeau and the Wolves managed to coax some solid play out of him down the stretch — the veteran point guard was one of the club’s most reliable contributors during its limited playoff run.

It likely wouldn’t break the bank to bring Rose back, so I think there’s a good chance that he and the Wolves will work something out. However, I think it’s less likely that Bjelica will re-sign. After knocking down 41.5% of his three-pointers last season, Bjelica will be in high demand from teams seeking a stretch four, and it would make sense for him to join a team where he’d have either a larger role or a better shot at a title.

5. How can the Timberwolves add shooting?

With Bjelica perhaps headed elsewhere, and Jamal Crawford seemingly unlikely to return to the Wolves, the team will be in desperate need of some outside shooting, with limited resources available to acquire it.

The draft represents one avenue to add a shooter. While the Wolves’ traded their own first-round pick (No. 19), they hold the Thunder’s first-rounder (No. 20) and will end up drafting in virtually the same spot they would have with their own selection. Minnesota also has the No. 48 pick in the second round.

In the first round, even if players like Jerome Robinson and Kevin Huerter are off the board by the time Minnesota on the clock, there should be plenty of good options available. Donte DiVincenzo, Grayson Allen, Jacob Evans, Khyri Thomas, Josh Okogie, and Gary Trent Jr. are among the strong outside shooters who will likely be up for grabs. Keita Bates-Diop is also an intriguing option if the club expects to lose Bjelica.

It’s trickier to predict which prospects will still be on the board by No. 48, but Landry Shamet and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk are among the sharpshooters projected to be drafted in that neighborhood.

Of course, Thibodeau generally favors veterans, so shooting figures to be a top priority for the Wolves in free agency. While the club won’t have cap room available, it may be able to use its full mid-level exception without crossing the tax apron. Usual suspects like Wayne Ellington, Marco Belinelli, J.J. Redick, and Joe Harris could be targets. Trevor Ariza, Ersan Ilyasova, Anthony Tolliver, and Luke Babbitt are among the options available in the frontcourt.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Timberwolves financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Andrew Wiggins ($25,250,000)¹
Jimmy Butler ($20,445,779)
Jeff Teague ($19,000,000)
Gorgui Dieng ($15,170,787)
Taj Gibson ($14,000,000)
Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,839,435)
Justin Patton ($2,667,600)
Tyus Jones ($2,444,053)
Cole Aldrich ($2,056,021) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.²
Kevin Martin ($1,360,304) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $110,233,979

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Cole Aldrich ($4,900,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.²
Total: $4,900,000

Restricted Free Agents

Nemanja Bjelica ($4,937,499 qualifying offer / $7,504,998 cap hold): Bird rights
Marcus Georges-Hunt ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Amile Jefferson ($1,537,872 qualifying offer / $1,537,872 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Anthony Brown ($1,499,698 qualifying offer / $1,499,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights³
Total: $12,242,266

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Jamal Crawford ($5,193,600): Non-Bird rights⁴
No. 20 overall pick ($2,142,395)
Aaron Brooks ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Derrick Rose ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $10,335,391

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

If we assume the Timberwolves waive and stretch Aldrich and keep their other eight players with guaranteed salaries, we can add cap charges for their first-round pick and three empty roster slots to arrive at a total team salary of $113,499,626. That takes the Wolves well over the cap, and projects to take them near the luxury tax line too if they want to use most or all of their mid-level exception.

Footnotes:

Wiggins will have a maximum salary worth 25% of the salary cap. This projected max salary is based on a $101MM cap, but it could be higher or lower depending on where the cap lands.
Aldrich’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 20.
Brown, who was on a two-way contract, is eligible for a qualifying offer equivalent to a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract, since he’s no longer eligible to sign another two-way deal.
Crawford has reportedly decided to decline his 2018/19 player option worth $4,544,400.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: San Antonio Spurs

June 13th, 2018 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

For only the fifth time in the last two decades, the Spurs failed to win a playoff series in 2018. Of course, San Antonio did extend its incredible streak of postseason appearances to 21 in a row, and managed to post a 47-35 record despite only having Kawhi Leonard for nine games, so it’s hard to consider the season a failure.

Still, the Spurs have long been considered the NBA’s model franchise, establishing the sort of continuity and stability that other teams strive for, and that mystique was stripped away to some extent in 2017/18. A public fraying of the relationship between the Spurs and Leonard cast a cloud over the second half of the season, and that cloud continues to hover over the club heading into the offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How will the Spurs resolve the Leonard situation?

It’s possible that the apparent rift between the Spurs and Leonard’s camp has been overstated, and a sit-down between the star forward and head coach Gregg Popovich will swiftly heal all wounds. But there has been too much smoke for there not to be at least a little fire in San Antonio, where the Spurs’ medical team and Leonard’s own doctors reportedly disagreed over the diagnosis and treatment of his quadriceps injury.

Leonard will be eligible for a super-max extension worth 35% of the salary cap this offseason, but the Spurs will have to think long and hard about putting that offer on the table. Such a deal would be worth over $40MM annually, so if the team has any reservations about Leonard returning to his All-NBA form in the coming years, it would be a scary investment.

On the other hand, the Spurs probably aren’t eager to put Leonard on the trade block, since doing so would essentially mean admitting to a lack of confidence in the 26-year-old long-term outlook, reducing their leverage. San Antonio’s top personnel executives could still probably find a reasonable return for Leonard, but he’s a top-five player in the NBA when he’s healthy, so the team will hope it doesn’t come to that.

I’d expect the Spurs and Leonard to smooth things out, but we won’t get a real sense of which direction this is going until that meeting between Leonard and Popovich happens. This will be one of the most important NBA storylines to watch in the coming weeks, and July 16 will be a date worth keeping an eye on — that’s when Leonard will become eligible for that super-max extension.

2. Will Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili still be Spurs next season?

While Leonard’s future is the most pressing question for the Spurs in terms of on-court impact, two of the team’s other longtime stars also aren’t locks to be back next season. Parker is headed for unrestricted free agency, while Ginobili is mulling the possibility of retirement.

It’s probably early too say whether both players will return, but I’d lean in that direction. Ginobili continued to provide solid part-time minutes for the Spurs in 2017/28 and seems capable of playing at least one more season. With one year and $2.5MM left on his contract, it would make sense for him to play out that deal, then seriously consider calling it a career next summer.

As for Parker, his future in San Antonio is a little less certain. If he has no desire to go elsewhere, I could see him transitioning into a stage in his career where he starts signing shorter-term deals with the Spurs, adjusting his salary up or down depending on the club’s cap situation, like Dirk Nowitzki has done in Dallas.

However, with Patty Mills on a lucrative long-term deal and Dejounte Murray emerging as the Spurs’ starting point guard, Parker’s role on the roster is less defined than it used to be. He averaged just 19.5 minutes per contest last season, easily the lowest mark of his career. If he returns, it will be at a much lower rate than the $15MM+ salary he earned in ’17/18.

3. How will the player option decisions shake out?

Before the end of June, three Spurs players will have to make option decisions. Danny Green ($10MM), Rudy Gay ($8.83MM), and Joffrey Lauvergne ($1.66MM) will have the opportunity to either play out the final year of their respective contracts or hit unrestricted free agency. None of those decisions are automatic.

Of the three, Green is probably the most likely to opt out. A three-and-D wing who has knocked down 39.5% of his career three-pointers, Green hasn’t put up huge numbers during his time in San Antonio, but he’s the sort of player every team wants on its roster. Green, who will turn 31 next week, may not receive offers worth more than the mid-level, but a three-year, $25MM contract seems very much within reach and might be preferable to one year at $10MM.

Like Green, Gay isn’t a lock to match his option salary on the open market, but could probably comfortably exceed that total on a multiyear deal. Still, he seemed to enjoy his first year in San Antonio, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he opts in and looks to boost his value further in advance of 2019 free agency, when more teams will have cap room available.

As for Lauvergne, he was solid when given the opportunity to play for the Spurs. I think he’s a good bet to pick up his option, but if he wants to try to find a larger role than he received in 2017/18 (9.7 MPG in 55 games), opting out of his minimum-salary deal wouldn’t cost him anything — as long as he can find another guaranteed offer.

4. Will the Spurs re-sign Kyle Anderson?

In recent years, the Spurs have made a habit of building up the value of young contributors, only to watch them sign elsewhere. Aron Baynes, Boban Marjanovic, and Jonathon Simmons are among the players who have parlayed solid showings in San Antonio into lucrative multiyear deals elsewhere.

It’s possible that Anderson will follow in the footsteps of those players. One recent report indicated that approximately seven teams will have interest in the restricted free agent this summer, so if even one puts an aggressive offer sheet on the table, the Spurs may be reluctant to match it.

As long as Leonard’s future in San Antonio remains up in the air though, I’d expect the Spurs to make a stronger effort to retain Anderson than they have with some past RFAs. The 24-year-old was forced into a larger role in Leonard’s absence and held his own, with 7.9 PPG on 52.7% shooting in 74 games (67 starts). He has proven he can be an important rotation player with or without Kawhi in the lineup.

5. How much longer will Popovich want to coach?

This question is either tangentially or directly related to virtually every personnel decision the Spurs make, not to mention the decisions the club’s players will make. Longtime Spurs like Parker and Ginobili may only want to play in San Antonio as long as Popovich is on the sidelines. Similarly, Leonard may be reluctant to re-up with the Spurs on a long-term contract without knowing whether or not Popovich will still be coaching the team in two or three years.

Even after losing James Borrego to the Hornets this spring, the Spurs have a deep and talented staff of assistants, led by Ettore Messina, Ime Udoka, and Becky Hammon, all of whom interviewed for head coaching jobs within the last couple months. Those coaches are respected by the players, and if one of them takes over for Popovich a few years down the road, it will probably be a smooth transition.

Nonetheless, Popovich is a future Hall-of-Famer, not to mention the de facto president of basketball operations for the Spurs. When he leaves the franchise, it will represent the end of an era, and that day might not be too far off. Popovich is 69 years old and lost his wife Erin earlier this year — it’s probably just a matter of time until he decides to trade in the NBA grind for more time with his family. One recent report suggested that most people don’t expect him to keep coaching beyond the 2020 Olympics.

Popovich appears set to return for the 2018/19 season, so this isn’t a question the Spurs will necessarily have to answer right away, but it’s one that will loom over the team’s longer-term outlook.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Spurs financially:

Guaranteed Salary

LaMarcus Aldridge ($22,347,015)
Kawhi Leonard ($20,099,189)
Pau Gasol ($16,800,000)
Patty Mills ($11,571,429)
Manu Ginobili ($2,500,000)
Tim Duncan ($1,881,250) — Waived via stretch provision
Derrick White ($1,667,160)
Dejounte Murray ($1,544,951)
Total: $78,410,994

Player Options

Danny Green ($10,000,000): Bird rights
Rudy Gay ($8,826,300): Non-Bird rights
Joffrey Lauvergne ($1,656,092): Non-Bird rights
Total: $20,482,392

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Brandon Paul ($1,378,242)¹
Total: $1,378,242

Restricted Free Agents

Kyle Anderson ($4,749,591 qualifying offer / $6,455,112 cap hold): Bird rights
Davis Bertans ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Bryn Forbes ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total: $9,854,508

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Tony Parker ($23,179,689): Bird rights
No. 18 overall pick ($2,337,014)
Nikola Milutinov ($1,689,080)²
David Lee ($1,499,698)
Total: $28,705,481

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $11,302,947

With so many player options and free agents to consider, the Spurs’ projected cap room could change significantly – or disappear altogether – depending on who returns and who leaves. For our projection, we’ve counted the Spurs’ seven guaranteed contracts, the cap holds for Anderson and the team’s first-round pick, and cap charges for three empty roster spots. The result is a total team salary of $89,697,053.
That projection assumes that Green, Gay, and Lauvergne will all opt out, Paul will be waived, and all non-Anderson free agents – including Parker – will be renounced. That may not be realistic. If a couple of those players are back, the Spurs’ cap room figures to dissipate quickly.

Footnotes:

Paul’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Milutinov was the Spurs’ 26th overall pick in 2015, meaning his cap hold is equal to the rookie scale amount for this year’s No. 26 pick. That cap hold will be removed when it’s officially determined that Milutinov won’t sign with the Spurs for 2018/19.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Milwaukee Bucks

June 13th, 2018 at 10:07am CST by Luke Adams

The Bucks were a popular preseason pick to grab a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference and perhaps even win a playoff series for the first time since 2001. However, despite a huge year from Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee struggled to string together wins. The team fired its head coach midway through the season, claimed the No. 7 seed in the East, and was once again knocked out of the postseason in the first round.

With little cap flexibility to go out and make major additions to their roster, the Bucks may have to rely primarily on a new head coach and further internal development in order to take a step forward next season.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Is Mike Budenholzer the right head coach for the Bucks?

Budenholzer was linked to the Bucks’ job shortly after the team fired Jason Kidd, back when Budenholzer was still coaching the Hawks and Joe Prunty was the interim head coach in Milwaukee. He didn’t officially secure the position until months later, but the fact that his interest in the Bucks apparently predated his departure from Atlanta is a signal that Budenholzer is excited about the job ahead.

During his introductory press conference, Budenholzer spoke specifically about wanting to unlock the Bucks’ defensive potential, which is an intriguing possibility. Budenholzer’s best squads in Atlanta were among the NBA’s top defensive teams, and Milwaukee has the personnel to create problems for opponents on that end of the court.

With athletic, rangy players like Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe, John Henson, Tony Snell, and Thon Maker on the roster, the Bucks should have a better defensive rating than they did in 2017/18 (110.1; 19th in the NBA). While his impact on the offense will be interesting to monitor too, I’ll be curious to see how much influence Budenholzer can have on D.

2. Will the Bucks re-sign Jabari Parker?

Parker’s free agency will probably fly somewhat under the radar in an offseason when players like LeBron James, Paul George, and DeMarcus Cousins could change teams. However, this is a former second overall pick who has a 20+ PPG season under his belt and is still just 23 years old. It will be fascinating to see what sort of interest he receives as a restricted free agent.

Although Parker’s per-minute production and shooting numbers in 2017/18 were solid for a player coming off his second ACL surgery, he was somewhat inconsistent, and the Bucks were a better team offensively and defensively when he was off the court. That up-and-down play may limit Parker’s earning potential this summer, particularly with so few teams around the NBA carrying significant cap room.

While it’s possible a club with space like the Bulls, Mavericks, or Suns makes a strong play for Parker, forcing Milwaukee to make a tough decision, it wouldn’t surprise me if the former Blue Devil finds himself unsigned after most of the cap room around the NBA has dried up. In that scenario, the Bucks could play hardball in negotiations for a long-term deal, perhaps locking up Parker for about half of the maximum salary, rather than the near-max contract he once seemed on track for.

It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that Parker could sign his qualifying offer this summer with an eye toward increasing his stock in time for unrestricted free agency in 2019. Either way, barring an unexpectedly aggressive offer sheet from a team with cap room, the Bucks appear to be in good position to retain Parker, assuming they want to do so.

3. Which players will be on the trade block?

Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are probably the only two untouchable players on the Bucks’ roster this offseason, but that doesn’t mean the team will be looking to move Bledsoe, Snell, Maker, or Malcolm Brogdon. Instead, the most logical trade chips on the roster are probably Matthew Dellavedova and Henson.

A beneficiary of the 2016 free agency boom, Dellavedova has two years and $19MM+ remaining on his four-year contract. While the Bucks initially signed him for his toughness and extensive playoff experience, Dellavedova’s on-court production and role declined in 2017/18, when he averaged just 4.3 PPG and 3.8 APG in 18.7 MPG (38 games). With Bledsoe and Brogdon handling point guard duties, the Bucks would probably be better off with a cheaper third option off the bench, but Dellavedova won’t have much value as a trade chip.

As for Henson, he emerged as Milwaukee’s starting center last season, rewarding the team for its trust in him with decent numbers (8.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG). However, the big man is still very limited on offense and has trouble playing in certain matchups. He’s also not cheap, with two years and $20MM+ left on his deal, though his declining cap hits could appeal to a potential Bucks trade partner.

4. Can the Bucks upgrade the center position?

If the Bucks do make a trade, they figure to focus on the center position. The combination of Henson and Dellavedova isn’t particularly tantalizing, but attaching a first-round pick to the duo could pique the interest of some teams. Even though the Bucks’ 2019 first-rounder is committed to Phoenix, they could move their No. 17 selection this year — they’d just have to draft the player themselves, then officially complete the trade after the fact in order to avoid running afoul of the Ted Stepien rule.

Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, Tristan Thompson, Robin Lopez, Jonas Valanciunas, and Mason Plumlee are among the highly-paid veteran centers the Bucks could inquire on. Dwight Howard also might fit the club’s price point, but probably isn’t eager for a reunion with Budenholzer after having his stint in Atlanta end poorly last year.

If the Bucks can’t find a trade that works, it’s possible they’ll turn to the free agent market and look for a lower-cost option with their mid-level exception. Brook Lopez, Kyle O’Quinn, and Dewayne Dedmon could be targets.

5. What will the Bucks do with the No. 17 pick?

While the Bucks could address the center spot with their first-round pick, there aren’t a ton of intriguing young centers who will be available after the lottery. And many of the ones expected to be on the board, such as Mitchell Robinson, would likely be projects who wouldn’t be ready to contribute right away.

If the Bucks keep their first-round pick, they might be better off adding a young player to their backcourt or wing rotation. Troy Brown and Zhaire Smith would be candidates if they’re still available. Boston College point guard Jerome Robinson, who is Milwaukee’s pick in Jonathan Givony’s most recent ESPN.com mock draft, would be another viable option, as would fellow point guard Aaron Holiday.

One prospect I’d have my eye on if I were the Bucks is Keita Bates-Diop. At 22 years old, he’s more ready than many other first-round prospects to compete for playing time right away, and his defensive versatility – and his ability to make outside shots – would make him a good fit on an athletic Milwaukee roster.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Bucks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($24,157,304)
Eric Bledsoe ($15,000,000)
Khris Middleton ($13,000,000)
Tony Snell ($10,607,143)
John Henson ($10,577,466)
Matthew Dellavedova ($9,607,500)
Mirza Teletovic ($3,500,000) — Waived via stretch provision
Thon Maker ($2,799,720)
D.J. Wilson ($2,534,280)
Spencer Hawes ($2,007,058) — Waived via stretch provision
Larry Sanders ($1,865,546) — Waived via stretch provision
Sterling Brown ($1,378,242)
Total: $97,034,259

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Brandon Jennings ($2,222,803)¹
Tyler Zeller ($1,933,941)
Malcolm Brogdon ($1,544,951)²
Total: $5,701,695

Restricted Free Agents

Jabari Parker ($4,333,931 qualifying offer / $20,347,176 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $20,347,176

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 17 overall pick ($2,459,922)
Shabazz Muhammad ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Jason Terry ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
Total: $5,459,318

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

While trades or cuts could open up some cap room for the Bucks, they’re far more likely to remain an over-the-cap team this summer. Their nine guaranteed contracts, plus Brogdon’s non-guaranteed salary, Parker’s cap hold, and the cap hold for their first-round pick bring the Bucks’ total team salary to $105,373,063, which is over the cap, but comfortably below the projected tax line.

Footnotes:

Jennings’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.
Brogdon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Miami Heat

June 12th, 2018 at 3:53pm CST by Luke Adams

The Heat haven’t returned to legit title contention since LeBron James‘ departure in 2014, but the team hasn’t bottomed out either. After finishing the 2016/17 season on a 30-11 run, Miami carried some of that momentum over to 2017/18, winning 44 games and grabbing the No. 6 seed.

Thanks to a couple injuries to Eastern Conference players this year, the Heat now technically have an All-Star on their roster in Goran Dragic, but the squad still lacks the star power to compete with the league’s very best teams. With team president Pat Riley opposed to a full-fledged rebuild, the Heat will have to find a way to close that talent gap without a top draft pick — and, at least for now, without any cap room either.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Heat trade Hassan Whiteside?

After leading the NBA in blocked shots in 2015/16 and rebounding in 2016/17, Whiteside battled injuries last season and saw his playing time cut back even when he was healthy. The veteran center still comfortably averaged a double-double (14.0 PPG, 11.4 RPG), but Bam Adebayo or Kelly Olynyk often earned crunch-time minutes at the five, and Whiteside’s playing time was reduced even further in the postseason against Joel Embiid and the Sixers.

As his on-court role has decreased, Whiteside has publicly griped about his role in South Beach, prompting trade speculation for the coming offseason. The big man could probably use a change of scenery, and the Heat seem happy to accommodate a move, but a massive $25MM+ cap hit will complicate trade talks.

The Heat figure to thoroughly explore the trade market in search of a taker for Whiteside, with the Bucks and Wizards among the possible fits, but his value isn’t positive at this point. In order to acquire a first-round pick or a promising young player, Miami would have to take on at least one contract worse than Whiteside’s.

2. Which other Heat players are on the trade block?

Whether or not the Heat can move Whiteside, he won’t be the only player whose name comes up in trade rumors this summer. With six other players set to earn between $9-20MM in 2018/19, Miami could put together a number of different packages in trade discussions.

While no player on the roster is untouchable, I don’t expect the Heat to seriously consider moving Goran Dragic ($18.11MM), Josh Richardson ($9.37MM), or Adebayo ($2.96MM) unless the return is too good to pass up. On the other end of the spectrum, the Heat probably wouldn’t mind dealing Tyler Johnson ($19.25MM) or Dion Waiters ($11.55MM), but those players – like Whiteside – may be overpriced based on their respective roles and production.

Outside of the players the Heat won’t want to trade and the ones that won’t appeal to potential trade partners, James Johnson ($14.65MM), Olynyk ($11.14MM), and Justise Winslow ($3.45MM) are the other vets who could be in play. Winslow, in particular, is an intriguing trade chip for the Heat.

While Miami certainly isn’t ready to throw in the towel on the former lottery pick, he hasn’t developed as quickly as the franchise might have hoped. A restricted free agent in 2019, Winslow would come with several more years of team control and could be attached to a more expensive player in a trade package. If the Heat make a major move this summer, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Winslow involved.

3. Will the Heat go shopping for a star again?

The Heat’s 2010 offseason shopping spree will go down as one of the best in NBA history, but the team has had a hard time replicating that free agent success in recent years. While Miami earned meetings with star free agents like Kevin Durant and Gordon Hayward, the club has been unable to secure those top targets.

Rather than continuing to preserve cap room for future pursuits, the Heat used last year’s room to sign a handful of solid players to lucrative long-term contracts. As a result, the club already has about $118MM in total team salary on its books for 2018/19, all but eliminating the chances of landing a top free agent.

With little flexibility to make a free agent splash, the Heat will have to turn to the trade market if they want to have any chance of landing a star-caliber player. We’ve already discussed their potential chips — would any of those chips be enough to put together a competitive package for a player like Kawhi Leonard? Maybe. Dragic, Winslow, and Miami’s unprotected 2019 first-rounder are good assets.

Any trade package the Heat put together probably won’t match what asset-rich teams like the Sixers, Celtics, or Suns could offer, but the team with the most assets doesn’t always win trade market bidding wars — no one expected the Thunder to outbid the Celtics for Paul George last summer, for instance. So while a blockbuster trade is probably unlikely for the Heat, the possibility shouldn’t be ruled out entirely.

4. Will Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem be back?

Outside of a brief foray to Chicago and Cleveland for Wade, he and Haslem have been the faces of this franchise for the last 15 years. Haslem doesn’t see much action anymore, but he’s a key leader in the locker room. As for Wade, he isn’t the same player he was in his prime, but he showed in the playoffs that he’s still got something left in the tank.

The two veterans have said they’ll talk to each other about their plans for next season, with retirement a possibility. If they do decide to keep playing, it will almost certainly be with the Heat. Re-signing Haslem wouldn’t cost more than the minimum for the Heat, but Wade may be a trickier case. Because the future Hall-of-Famer was on a one-year, minimum-salary contract last year, the Heat don’t hold his Bird rights. So if he wants more than the minimum next season, re-signing Wade would likely require a portion of the team’s mid-level exception.

The Heat certainly won’t turn Wade away if he wants to come back at a reasonable price, but given the team’s proximity to the tax line, every dollar will be important. Getting Wade back on a minimum deal would be the best outcome for the club.

5. Will the Heat re-sign Wayne Ellington?

Of course, it’s not Wade or Haslem but Ellington who will be the Heat’s most important unrestricted free agent this summer. The 30-year-old shooting guard provided some much-needed outside shooting for the Heat in 2017/18, leading the team with 2.9 three-pointers per game and knocking them down at a 39.2% rate. Now, he’ll hit the open market.

The Heat have Ellington’s Early Bird rights, which will allow the team to offer a starting salary up to $10.97MM for the veteran marksman. Miami might not have to go that high, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if rival suitors offer their full mid-level exceptions to Ellington, so the Heat’s offer would probably have to be in the $8.5MM range.

Once again, the Heat’s proximity to the tax line could be problematic as the front office weighs its decision on Ellington. Re-signing him would mean either becoming a taxpayer or needing to shed salary elsewhere to avoid the tax. But if they let Ellington walk, the Heat – who don’t have a pick in this year’s draft – will have a tough time finding a shooter capable of approximating his production. It will be interesting to see which way the team goes on its top three-point shooter.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Heat financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Hassan Whiteside ($25,434,263)
Tyler Johnson ($19,245,370)
Goran Dragic ($18,109,175)
James Johnson ($14,651,700)
Dion Waiters ($11,550,000)
Kelly Olynyk ($11,137,527)
Josh Richardson ($9,367,200)
Justise Winslow ($3,448,926)
Bam Adebayo ($2,955,840)
A.J. Hammons ($350,088) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $116,250,089

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Rodney McGruder ($1,544,951)¹
Total: $1,544,951

Restricted Free Agents

Jordan Mickey ($1,839,228 qualifying offer / $1,839,228 cap hold)
Total: $1,839,228

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Wayne Ellington ($8,151,000): Early Bird rights
Luke Babbitt ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Udonis Haslem ($1,499,698): Bird rights
Dwyane Wade ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $12,650,094

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

Even without re-signing Ellington, Wade, or any other free agents, the Heat project to be way over the cap. Their nine guaranteed salaries, McGruder’s non-guaranteed salary, and cap charges for two roster spots add up to a total team salary of $119,457,662. The Heat are likely headed for tax territory unless they can cut costs in a trade or two.

Footnotes:

McGruder’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Washington Wizards

June 11th, 2018 at 3:16pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning a playoff series and pushing the Celtics to a seventh game in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2017, the Wizards entered the 2017/18 season looking to compete for a spot in the NBA Finals. However, the club battled injuries and inconsistent play through the year, ultimately taking a step back. Washington finished eighth in the East at 43-39, and was quickly dispatched in the first round of the postseason.

With no cap room available in 2018, the Wizards have no clear path to improving their roster, so general manager Ernie Grunfeld will have to get creative as he seeks out potential upgrades.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Wizards keep their “Big Three” intact?

It’s not quite LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, but the Wizards have their own Big Three, with long-term, maximum-salary contracts on their books for John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter. The trio counts for more than $70MM on Washington’s cap in 2018/19, and that figure will increase substantially the following year when Wall’s new super-max extension takes effect.

Although modern NBA teams need star players in order to seriously contend for a title, it’s not clear if the Wizards’ trio has quite enough star-power to justify the team’s huge investment. Wall has battled knee issues during his career, and Beal and Porter have combined for just one All-Star appearance between them. As long as those three players remain on the roster, it will be tricky to add productive complementary pieces around them, and they aren’t the sort of superstars who can thrive without those complementary pieces.

It’s fair to wonder if the Wizards will seriously consider the possibility of breaking up their Big Three this summer. Wall’s super-max extension and knee issues cloud his value, while Beal is coming off a career year, so Porter may be the most logical trade candidate of the three. Teams around the NBA covet three-and-D wings, and Porter fits very nicely into that role, having knocked down 43.7% of his three-pointers over the last two seasons.

Porter’s salary is probably a little too high to expect a huge return, but if a team is willing to part with an impact big man for him, the Wizards should listen. One popular hypothetical scenario would see Washington acquiring Wall’s former Kentucky teammate DeMarcus Cousins in a sign-and-trade with the Pelicans, who could use a wing like Porter. However, there are a number of CBA roadblocks that could get in the way of such a deal, even if both teams agreed on value.

2. How will the Wizards address the center position?

Whether or not they explore a major trade, the Wizards will probably try to find a way to make a change at the center spot, where Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi will earn nearly $30MM between them in 2018/19. Gortat and Mahinmi have their moments, but their offensive games are limited, and neither player is the sort of elite defender who can anchor a defense.

If the Wizards keep Porter, their best shot at landing an impact player in a trade might be attaching Kelly Oubre and/or a first-round pick to Gortat’s expiring contract, since Mahinmi’s deal still has negative value. While there may not be a ton of impact centers on the trade market, I’d expect Washington to kick the tires on guys like Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, and Jonas Valanciunas, among others.

The Wizards’ ability to go after a center in free agency will be limited, given the team’s lack of cap room, so the draft may be the only other avenue to address the position in a real way. If Texas A&M’s Robert Williams slips out of the lottery to No. 15, he’d be a great fit.

3. Are the Wizards willing to pay the tax again?

I’ve already identified several of the Wizards’ highest-paid players as trade candidates, and that’s not just due to on-court factors. One of just a handful of taxpaying teams in the NBA in 2017/18, the Wizards’ reward for their willingness to spend was a 43-win season and a first-round playoff exit. As such, team ownership may not be quite so eager to go over the tax line again in 2018/19.

The Wizards aren’t technically over the projected tax threshold yet, but with Jason Smith having opted in and Jodie Meeks expected to follow suit, team salary will increase to nearly $125MM for 10 players, not counting the cap hold for the club’s first-round pick. So in order to get out of the tax, Washington will need to make some trades or cuts.

While the Wizards’ four highest-paid players are under contract for multiple seasons, the team will have a number of players on expiring deals, including Gortat, Markieff Morris, Smith, Meeks, Tomas Satoransky, and Oubre. Satoransky and Oubre provide solid value at modest prices, so Gortat, Morris, Smith, and Meeks should be among the players on the trade block. If they can’t be moved, the stretch provision could help the Wizards sneak below the tax line.

4. How can the Wizards improve their bench?

While the Wizards’ bench was more productive in 2017/18 than it was the previous season, it still had a negative net rating. Satoransky has emerged as a capable backup point guard and Oubre can be a capable sixth man when he’s playing well, but too many of the team’s other rotation players struggled to consistently produce.

One big disappointment last season was Meeks, who posted his worst 3PT% (.343) since his rookie season, then missed the playoffs after being suspended for violating the league’s anti-drug policy. The Wizards may have to hope for a bounce-back year from the veteran sharpshooter, since the team probably won’t have the cap flexibility to go after a shooter like Marco Belinelli, Wayne Ellington, or Joe Harris.

In the frontcourt, Mike Scott‘s strong season as the backup power forward in D.C. may end up pricing him out of the Wizards’ range. In that case, the team would need to address its depth behind Morris at the four. Once again, the Wizards’ lack of cap flexibility figures to hurt them, but Dante Cunningham, Amir Johnson, and Kevon Looney are among the free agents the team could kick the tires on.

5. What will the Wizards do with the No. 15 overall pick?

The best way for Washington to add a young, inexpensive player to its bench rotation will be with the No. 15 overall pick in this year’s draft. The Wizards have made a habit of trading their first-round picks in recent years, and it’s possible they’ll do so again this year if there’s a deal that allows them to trim salary and acquire a rotation player in one fell swoop.

Still, I think the Wizards will want to keep this year’s first-rounder. The 2018 draft class is a deep and talented one, and Washington’s front office certainly recognizes that rookie contracts are the best tools for balancing out the expensive veteran contracts on the team’s cap.

So who should the Wizards pick at No. 15? As I noted earlier, Williams would be an ideal target for at that spot, but I expect him to come off the board in the lottery. If Williams is unavailable, adding a wing may be the best course of action for the Wizards. Lonnie Walker, Miles Bridges, Zhaire Smith, and Troy Brown are among the prospects who could be available.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Wizards financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Otto Porter ($26,011,913)
Bradley Beal ($25,434,262)
John Wall ($19,169,800)
Ian Mahinmi ($15,944,154)
Marcin Gortat ($13,565,218)
Markieff Morris ($8,600,000)
Jason Smith ($5,450,000): Exercised player option
Kelly Oubre ($3,208,630)
Tomas Satoransky ($3,129,187)
Martell Webster ($833,333) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $121,346,497

Player Options

Jodie Meeks ($3,454,500)
Total: $3,454,500

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Tim Frazier ($3,800,000): Bird rights
No. 15 overall pick ($2,725,615)
Chris McCullough ($2,243,326): Bird rights¹
Ty Lawson ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Mike Scott ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Ramon Sessions ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $13,268,035

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

The Wizards will be well over the cap threshold again in 2018/19, barring major cuts and/or trades. If we assume Meeks exercises his player option, the Wizards’ total team salary – taking into account their 10 player contracts, plus cap charges for their first-round pick and an empty roster spot – would get all the way up to $128,357,923.

Footnotes:

The Wizards can’t offer McCullough a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since they declined his fourth-year rookie scale option worth that amount.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Denver Nuggets

June 10th, 2018 at 7:14pm CST by Luke Adams

After missing the playoffs for four straight seasons, the Nuggets were a popular choice to climb back into the top eight in the Western Conference this year. Denver improved to 46-36, but a loss to the Timberwolves on the final day of the regular season prevented the team from earning a postseason berth in an extremely competitive conference.

There’s reason to believe that the Nuggets are still on the rise — many of their key contributors are still less than 25 years old, and the team will count on top 2017 free agent addition Paul Millsap to be healthier next year. However, the franchise no longer has substantial cap room available. In fact, certain moves could push Denver’s team salary beyond the luxury-tax line, which may not appeal to club ownership.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What will the Nuggets do with Nikola Jokic?

The most fascinating question the Nuggets will have to answer involves the future of Jokic, who looks like a franchise center. Denver’s leader last season in PPG (18.5), RPG (10.7), APG (6.1), and 3PT% (.396), Jokic is an offensive force, and one who is playing on a very team-friendly salary. The Nuggets hold a team option for 2018/19 worth just $1.6MM.

So what’s the problem? Well, if Denver exercises that team option, it would put the 23-year-old on track for unrestricted free agency in 2019. At that point, the Nuggets would be able to offer him more years and money than any other team, but they wouldn’t have the right of first refusal, and would risk losing him for nothing. Plus, delaying his payday by another year wouldn’t endear the Nuggets to Jokic’s representatives, who have strongly suggested that declining the option would be in the club’s best interests.

As such, the most likely outcome is the Nuggets turning down that option in order to make Jokic a restricted free agent, at which point the two sides could work out a new long-term agreement and Denver wouldn’t have to worry about potentially losing their rising star on the open market.

2. How can the Nuggets trim salary?

The problem with giving Jokic a lucrative new deal this summer is that it would create some financial issues for the Nuggets. If we assume Jokic gets a max contract or something close to it, that could add another $25MM to Denver’s team salary for 2018/19. The team already has about $85.6MM in guaranteed money on its books, with player options for Wilson Chandler ($12.8MM) and Darrell Arthur ($7.5MM) likely to follow. The cost of the Nuggets’ roster would increase to approximately $131MM if we count all those deals, and that’s without accounting for free-agent-to-be Will Barton.

In other words, the Nuggets will probably need to find a way to cut costs.

Fortunately, Denver should have a handful of players in contract years. In addition to Chandler and Arthur, Kenneth Faried ($13.8MM) will be entering the final season of his deal. The team hasn’t been able to find a taker for Faried in the past, but with just one year left, more potential trade partners may surface.

Still, Faried and Arthur won’t be easy to move, so Chandler is probably the most logical trade chip for the Nuggets. The 31-year-old is a solid three-point shooter (.358 3PT% in ’17/18) and defender capable of playing either forward position, and the Nuggets were better with him on the court than off it last season, so he should appeal to contending teams.

Of course, those are all reasons why Denver might prefer to keep Chandler on the roster, particularly since the club doesn’t have a ton of reliable small forward depth. If they keep Chandler, the Nuggets would probably have to pair Faried, Arthur, or Mason Plumlee with a more valuable asset in order to find a taker. Waiving and stretching a player or two is also an option if absolutely necessary. Arthur’s 2018/19 cap charge could be reduced by about $5MM if he’s stretched, for instance.

3. Could the Nuggets’ power forward logjam lead to trade opportunities?

With Jokic locked in at the five and Plumlee backing him up, the Nuggets don’t need Millsap to be a small-ball center too often, which means he’ll see most of his action at the four. If he stays healthy and averages 30+ minutes per game, that doesn’t leave much playing time for Denver’s other power forwards, and the team has a lot of them.

Besides Faried and Arthur, Trey Lyles, Juan Hernangomez, and Chandler all saw action at the four last season. Lyles enjoyed a modest breakout season as a regular rotation player, exhibiting an ability to knock down shots (.491/.381/.697). Hernangomez took a step backward in his sophomore year, but showed promise as a rookie and is still just 22 years old, so he could push for a larger role.

Denver probably needs a trade or two to better balance its roster, and while the team would certainly prefer to move those highly-paid players like Faried and Arthur, including Lyles or especially Hernangomez in a trade package could make sense in the right move.

4. Will the Nuggets re-sign Barton?

Barton will enter unrestricted free agency following the most productive year of his NBA career (15.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.1 APG), and his play-making and ball-handling abilities make him an ideal sixth man for the Nuggets. However, he’ll likely draw interest from teams around the league who envision him in a similar role on their own rosters, so Denver will have to give him a raise and a multiyear deal to keep him.

We’ve already discussed the Nuggets’ potential salary issues at length, but the team would be under even more pressure to move salary if Barton re-signs. Still, he might be worth it, depending on how high his price tag goes. If a team with cap room makes an aggressive play for the veteran guard, Denver may not be equipped to top that offer, but as long as his price stays in the mid-level range, the Nuggets should do all they can to keep him.

5. What will the Nuggets do with their lottery pick?

If they have to let Barton walk or trade Chandler this summer, the Nuggets will find themselves in desperate need of wing depth, and the No. 14 pick in this year’s draft might be an ideal spot to replenish that depth.

Lonnie Walker, Miles Bridges, and Zhaire Smith are among the shooting guard or small forward candidates to be on the board when Denver’s pick arrives, and any of them would be solid fits. In his most recent mock draft, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony has Bridges going to the Nuggets at No. 14, observing that the MSU product has the potential to become a “two-way forward who can guard all over the floor.”

Depending on how cost-conscious the Nuggets are, the No. 14 pick could also become a valuable tool to help clear salary. The Pelicans/Bulls midseason trade involving a first-round pick and Omer Asik for Nikola Mirotic provides a point of reference here. If Denver attached its lottery pick to Faried and/or Arthur, the team could still ask for a useful rotation player in return.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nuggets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Paul Millsap ($29,730,769)
Gary Harris ($16,517,857)
Kenneth Faried ($13,764,045)
Mason Plumlee ($12,917,808)
Jamal Murray ($3,499,800)
Trey Lyles ($3,364,249)
Juan Hernangomez ($2,166,360)
Tyler Lydon ($1,874,640)
Malik Beasley ($1,773,840)
Total: $85,609,368

Player Options

Wilson Chandler ($12,800,562)
Darrell Arthur ($7,464,912)
Total: $20,265,474

Team Options

Nikola Jokic ($1,600,520)
Total: $1,600,520

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Devin Harris ($8,364,837): Bird rights
Will Barton ($6,713,333): Bird rights
No. 14 overall pick ($2,869,353)
Richard Jefferson ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $16,823,817

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

Even if Chandler turns down his player option, Arthur is a virtual lock to exercise his, and Jokic will be back — either on his cheap team-option salary or on a lucrative new deal. With their nine guaranteed contracts, Arthur’s player option, Jokic’s team option, and the cap hold for their lottery pick, the Nuggets already have a total team salary of $97,544,153, essentially eliminating cap room. If Chandler opts in and the Nuggets want to sign Jokic to a new contract this summer, the team projects to be way over the cap.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Los Angeles Clippers

June 8th, 2018 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

At this time last year, the Clippers still had Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan under contract, and were weighing the possibility of keeping that Big Three intact for the foreseeable future. Now, Paul is a Rocket, Griffin is a Piston, and Jordan’s future with the Clippers is very much in flux, given his pending player option decision.

A 10th-place finish in the Western Conference snapped the Clippers’ streak of six consecutive playoff appearances, a run that may very well have continued if Paul and Griffin had remained with the team. However, the franchise might be better off in the long run by not having its cap weighed down with lucrative, long-term contracts for a pair of injury-prone players who may be entering the tail end of their respective primes.

Here are five key questions facing the Clippers this summer:

1. Did the Griffin trade represent the start of a rebuild or just another path to contention?

In their trade that sent Griffin to Detroit, the Clippers acquired Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, and Avery Bradley. Bradley is an unrestricted free agent this summer, while Harris and Marjanovic will each see their current contracts expire in 2019, so it’s possible that none of those players will become long-term pieces for the organization. If the Clippers want to drastically reshape their roster, letting Bradley walk and shopping Harris and Marjanovic in trade talks are viable possibilities.

However, there have been signs since that blockbuster deal with the Pistons that the Clippers don’t intend to tear it all down. An extension for Doc Rivers was perhaps the most obvious signal that the team is simply retooling, since Rivers has expressed distaste in the past for going through a rebuild. 31-year-old sixth man Lou Williams also got an extension, inking a new three-year, $24MM contract that will cut into the team’s projected cap room for the next summer.

If the Clippers really wanted to blow things up, they likely wouldn’t have stopped after moving Griffin. Jordan was another prime trade candidate, and one who likely could have netted the Clips another valuable draft pick if he’d been moved in February. Instead, the team held onto him, continuing to discuss the possibility of a longer-term extension.

The Clippers have some flexibility to go in a number of directions, but a full-fledged rebuild seems unlikely. This looks like a team that changed directions, but still wants to compete for the playoffs and focus on win-now moves rather than looking several years down the road.

2. Will everyone exercise their player options?

When their offseason began, the Clippers’ roster featured four veterans holding player options for the 2018/19 season. Wesley Johnson ($6.13MM) has already opted in, leaving Milos Teodosic ($6.3MM), Austin Rivers ($12.65MM), and Jordan ($24.12MM) with decisions to make.

Of the three, Rivers seems like the surest bet to pick up his option. Doc’s son has established himself as a solid defender, and was more productive than ever on offense last season (15.1 PPG, .378 3PT%), so his contract is hardly an albatross. Still, he signed during the free agent boom of 2016, and probably wouldn’t match his option salary if he opts out.

Teodosic and Jordan are trickier cases. Injuries slowed Teodosic during his first NBA season, but the longtime EuroLeague standout was effective when he played. He’s unlikely to secure much of a raise on his option salary, but he could look for a team where he’d have a clearer role. With Rivers, Williams, Patrick Beverley, and Jawun Evans set to return, and the possibility of the Clippers adding another guard in the draft, the club has no shortage of potential ball-handlers.

Meanwhile, Jordan’s decision will have the greatest impact on the Clippers’ offseason. In fact, his potential free agency deserves a question of its own…

3. Will the Clippers bring back their centers?

A Clipper since 2008, Jordan is the last real holdover from the Lob City era, and there have been whispers that he might be ready to move on. The veteran center nearly left in free agency once already in 2015 — this time, Griffin, Paul, J.J. Redick, and Paul Pierce won’t be around to trap him in his house when he’s finalizing his decision.

Still, there’s no guarantee that Jordan will even reach free agency. His $24MM+ player-option salary is likely higher than any starting salary he’d receive on a multiyear offer on the open market. Jordan could probably secure a bigger overall payday with a more modest annual salary on a long-term deal. But would that be a more favorable outcome than exercising his $24MM+ option and trying his luck on the open market next year, when more teams will have cap room available?

Even if Jordan opts in, a trade remains a possibility. Rumors swirled around the 29-year-old leading up to February’s deadline, and while he stayed put at that point, the Clippers should have more options if they shop him again this summer.

Elsewhere at the center position, the Clippers will have a sneakily important decision to make on backup big man Montrezl Harrell, who is a restricted free agent this summer. An overlooked piece of the Paul trade with the Rockets last summer, Harrell enjoyed a breakout season in Los Angeles, averaging 14.0 PPG on 65.6% shooting in his final 43 games (20.2 MPG). I’d expect teams to have their eye on Harrell as a potential under-the-radar free agent target, so the Clips may face a tough decision on an offer sheet for the promising young big man.

4. What will the Clippers do with the 12th and 13th overall picks?

If the Clippers are worried about losing Jordan and/or Harrell, they’ll have a great opportunity to address their frontcourt in the draft. Having picked up the Pistons’ first-round pick in the Griffin deal, L.A. now holds two lottery selections, creating myriad possibilities for the franchise.

Texas A&M center Robert Williams, who has the potential to do many of the things Jordan does on the court, would be one possibility for the Clippers if he’s still on the board. If the Clips want to address their backcourt, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and perhaps Collin Sexton could be available. There should be no shortage of wings too, with Lonnie Walker, Miles Bridges, and Zhaire Smith among the candidates to be on the board at No. 12.

If the Clippers aren’t eager to add two rookies to their rotation, there are other ways they could take advantage of owning two lottery picks, which brings us to our final question…

5. Will the Clippers make a major trade this summer?

The Clippers perhaps aren’t as well equipped as teams like the Celtics or Suns to put together a huge package in a bid for a star, but they hold several attractive trade pieces. Adding Harris to one or both of their 2018 first-rounders would be a good starting point for any offer. Depending on the target, the Clippers could also offer a number of expiring contracts or future first-round picks.

The most logical target for the Clippers might be Kawhi Leonard, a Los Angeles native whose relationship with the Spurs went through some turbulence during the 2017/18 season. If Leonard and the Spurs can’t come to an agreement on an extension this offseason and decide to explore trade avenues, San Antonio could do worse than replacing the star forward with Harris, Beverley, and a slew of draft picks.

The Clippers have also reportedly been eyeing Luka Doncic, one of the top prospects in this year’s draft. Doncic won’t last until No. 12, but if he slips to No. 4, which is believed to be a possibility, the Grizzlies may be a logical trade partner for Los Angeles. Memphis wants to return to the playoffs in 2019 and is believed to be open to discussing a trade involving its top pick. If the Clippers offered up one or both of their lottery selections, along with a player or two that could help Memphis immediately, I think the Grizzlies would listen.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Clippers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Danilo Gallinari ($21,587,579)
Tobias Harris ($14,800,000)
Lou Williams ($8,000,000)
Boban Marjanovic ($7,000,000)
Wesley Johnson ($6,134,520): Exercised player option
Sam Dekker ($2,760,095)
Jawun Evans ($1,378,242)
Sindarius Thornwell ($1,378,242)
Carlos Delfino ($650,000) — Waived via stretch provision
Miroslav Raduljica ($252,043) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $63,940,721

Player Options

DeAndre Jordan ($24,119,025)
Austin Rivers ($12,650,000)
Milos Teodosic ($6,300,000)
Total: $43,069,025

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Patrick Beverley ($5,027,028)
C.J. Williams ($1,378,242)¹
Total: $6,405,270

Restricted Free Agents

Montrezl Harrell ($1,839,228 qualifying offer / $1,839,228 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $1,839,228

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Avery Bradley ($13,213,484): Bird rights
No. 12 overall pick ($3,179,248)
No. 13 overall pick ($3,020,246)
Total: $19,412,978

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $13,182,757

With three veterans holding player options, there are a number of potential scenarios in play for the Clippers’ cap outlook this summer. For our cap projection, we’ve counted the team’s eight guaranteed salaries, Beverley’s non-guaranteed salary, cap holds for the two lottery picks, and Rivers’ player-option salary. The Clips’ total team salary in that scenario is $87,817,243.
This projection assumes that Jordan and Teodosic both opt out, which is far from a lock. If either player opts in, L.A. will most likely operate as an over-the-cap team, barring other trades and/or cuts.

Footnotes:

Williams’ salary becomes guaranteed for $125K on the first day of the 2018/19 regular season.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Detroit Pistons

June 7th, 2018 at 9:42am CST by Luke Adams

After winning 44 games and earning a playoff berth during Stan Van Gundy‘s second year with the franchise in 2015/16, the Pistons regressed over the last couple seasons, playing sub-.500 ball and failing to return to the postseason. Van Gundy took one last big swing prior to the 2018 trade deadline, acquiring Blake Griffin in a mega-deal with the Clippers, but it wasn’t enough to turn Detroit’s season around or to earn Van Gundy another year.

Pistons owner Tom Gores was fully on board with the trade for Griffin, so Van Gundy didn’t lose his job because that move failed to have an immediate impact. It was time for both sides to move on though, and that means the Pistons are in the market for both a head coach and a head of basketball operations, since Van Gundy held both roles.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Who will the Pistons hire to coach the team and to run the front office?

The Pistons appear poised to finalize their head coaching search before hiring a new general manager, which sounds backwards. However, it may simply speak to Ed Stefanski‘s importance in the new front office hierarchy. Stefanski’s official title is “special advisor,” and not “president of basketball operations.” But he’ll report directly to Gores and has extensive basketball ops experience. It will be interesting to see how much input he’ll ultimately have in roster decisions once a new GM comes aboard.

That new GM appears likely to be someone who hasn’t held that position for another team. The Pistons are said to be seeking a young, up-and-coming executive who is capable of being the face of the front office for the next decade. As such, the list of names being considered by the club includes several men who were playing in the NBA – or another league – within the five or 10 years. Among them: Nets assistant GM Trajan Langdon, Hawks manager of basketball operations Malik Rose, TNT analyst Brent Barry, and former Pistons players Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince.

Whle the Pistons may hire a relatively inexperienced GM, the current frontrunner for the coaching job has an extensive head coaching résumé — Dwane Casey, recently fired by the Raptors, coached the club for seven seasons and had a huge amount of regular season success. While his struggles in the postseason, particularly against LeBron James-led teams, may be a longer-term concern for Detroit, Casey’s ability to build a culture and develop players would serve the franchise well. Assuming Casey doesn’t want to take a year off from coaching, I’d expect him to be the choice over less experienced options like Spurs assistant Ime Udoka and TNT’s Kenny Smith.

2. Will the Pistons’ new GM follow Van Gundy’s blueprint?

In some cases, a new general manager will have a mandate to rebuild his roster when he lands with a new team, but that seems unlikely to be the case in Detroit, given the veteran-heavy nature of the team’s roster. Before he left the Pistons, Van Gundy was insistent that the club could contend if Griffin, Andre Drummond, and Reggie Jackson stayed healthy. Will the new GM feel the same way?

If so, we’re unlikely to see many major changes made to the Pistons’ roster this summer, which could be a good thing. The Pelicans’ fortunes didn’t turn around immediately after they acquired DeMarcus Cousins in a midseason deal, but a year later, everything came together for the club. There’s no guarantee that the same thing will happen for the Pistons and Griffin, but a full offseason and training camp together should bode well for the 2018/19 season.

I’d expect the Pistons’ new GM to give the current group every opportunity to succeed to start next season, perhaps revisiting that approach by the 2019 trade deadline if necessary.

3. How can the Pistons add help on the wing?

Of course, the Pistons probably can’t afford to simply run back the exact same roster that missed the playoffs last season. With Jackson, Griffin, and Drummond locked in at the one, four, and five positions, respectively, shooting guard and small forward look like the primary areas for the club to focus on this summer.

Unfortunately, Detroit doesn’t exactly have a ton of cap flexibility to go out and acquire difference-makers at those spots. With eight guaranteed contracts accounting for nearly $112MM on next year’s cap, the Pistons may even be hard-pressed to use the entire mid-level exception before bumping up against the luxury tax line.

Given their spending limitations, the Pistons aren’t likely to land an impact two-way wing in free agency, and their trade assets are limited. Still, veterans like Marco Belinelli, Wayne Ellington, Joe Harris, and Mario Hezonja may be in the team’s price range. Detroit also holds the No. 42 pick in the draft, giving the club a chance to land a potential contributor on the cheap.

4. Will the team explore a rookie scale extension for Stanley Johnson?

The best options for the Pistons at the two and three may already be on the roster, with youngsters Luke Kennard and Johnson perhaps ready to take on larger roles. Johnson, in particular, will be a player worth watching this offseason, since he’ll become extension-eligible for the first time on July 1.

Johnson had a modest bounce-back season in 2017/18 after a poor sophomore showing, but his shooting numbers (.375/.286/.772) still aren’t where they need to be. At just 22 years old, Johnson has plenty of room to grow, but it’s probably too risky for the Pistons to roll the dice on a long-term investment in the former lottery pick at this point in his career.

Detroit is more likely to wait until his restricted free agency in 2019 to make a decision one way or the other on Johnson. So for this summer, the big question will be whether the Pistons block him on the depth chart by acquiring a veteran small forward, or whether they head into the 2018/19 season prepared for Johnson to play significant minutes.

5. Which of the Pistons’ players on non-guaranteed salaries will be back?

Another former first-rounder, Reggie Bullock enjoyed a breakout season for the Pistons in 2017/18, setting new career highs in PPG (11.3), FG% (.489), 3PT% (.445), and many other categories. His play not only makes it an easy decision to guarantee his $2.5MM salary for next season — it should also earn him a key role on the wing next season.

Detroit’s other two decisions on non-guaranteed contracts might not be quite as simple. Eric Moreland, who is owed a non-guaranteed $1.83MM salary for 2018/19, flashed some potential in his limited role, showing an ability to grab rebounds and pass out of the post. However, if Jon Leuer is healthy and Henry Ellenson is ready for a larger role, the team may want a minimum-salary player in Moreland’s spot. Still, I think he’s a good bet to return as frontcourt insurance, given Griffin’s and Leuer’s injury histories.

Dwight Buycks, who has a $1.6MM non-guaranteed salary for 2018/19, was solid in Jackson’s absence last season, but may not be needed next year. Assuming everyone is healthy, Detroit has three players capable of handling the ball in Jackson, Ish Smith, and Langston Galloway. If the Pistons want to add another point guard to the mix, taking a shot on a younger prospect with some upside probably makes more sense.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pistons financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Blake Griffin ($32,088,932)
Andre Drummond ($25,434,263)
Reggie Jackson ($17,043,478)
Jon Leuer ($10,002,681)
Langston Galloway ($7,000,000)
Ish Smith ($6,000,000)
Josh Smith ($5,331,729) — Waived via stretch provision
Stanley Johnson ($3,940,402)
Luke Kennard ($3,275,280)
Henry Ellenson ($1,857,480)
Total: $111,974,245

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Reggie Bullock ($2,500,000)¹
Eric Moreland ($1,826,300)²
Dwight Buycks ($1,600,520)³
Total: $5,926,820

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Anthony Tolliver ($3,948,000): Non-Bird rights
James Ennis ($3,936,933): Early Bird rights
Jameer Nelson ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $9,384,631

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

With or without Griffin’s mammoth salary on their cap, the Pistons wouldn’t have had any space this summer, since the contracts for Tobias Harris and Boban Marjanovic run through 2018/19. With Griffin on the books though, Detroit projects to be way over the cap, with a total team salary starting at $114,468,178 — that accounts for the Pistons’ nine guaranteed contracts, plus cap charges for three empty roster spots.

Footnotes:

Bullock’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.
Moreland’s salary becomes guaranteed for $750K after July 8. There are additional partial guarantees of $250K apiece after September 1 and after the first game of the regular season.
Buycks’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after September 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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