Five Key Offseason Questions

Five Key Offseason Questions: Charlotte Hornets

June 6th, 2018 at 3:09pm CST by Luke Adams

After oscillating between lottery appearances and first-round playoff exits during Steve Clifford‘s first four years in Charlotte, the Hornets endured a second consecutive 36-46 season in 2017/18, resulting in Clifford’s ouster. The latest uninspiring stretch for the franchise, which hasn’t won a postseason series since being reborn in 2004, also resulted in the dismissal of general manager Rich Cho.

With Cho and Clifford out, former Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak has taken over the basketball operations department, hiring Spurs assistant James Borrego as the Hornets’ new head coach. Despite the changes in the front office and on the bench, 11 of Charlotte’s 14 players from 2017/18 – including the club’s top nine highest-paid veterans – have guaranteed contracts for next season, creating uncertainty about how much the actual roster will change.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Hornets trade Kemba Walker?

Walker’s name surfaced in a number of rumors prior to the trade deadline, and it wasn’t simply baseless speculation. Hornets owner Michael Jordan confirmed that the club was listening to inquiries on its star point guard, though he cautioned that Charlotte wasn’t shopping Walker and said the price would be high.

The Hornets’ front office has undergone some changes since then, but Jordan will still be the one signing off on roster decisions and he sounds willing to approve a deal if Kupchak decides to go in that direction. Still, moving Walker for a fair return won’t be easy. The former UConn star has just one year left on his current contract, so any team interested in acquiring him would have to be pretty confident that he’d be willing to re-up.

Charlotte also reportedly has somewhat conflicting goals in a Walker trade. Jordan stated that the team would only move its point guard for an All-Star caliber player, but attaching an unwanted contract to Walker also represents the club’s best chance to dump salary. It’s unlikely that the team would be able to simultaneously achieve both goals.

2. How can the Hornets reduce team salary?

In Nicolas Batum ($24MM cap hit for 2018/19), Dwight Howard ($23.82MM), Marvin Williams ($14.09MM), Cody Zeller ($13.53MM), and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($13MM), the Hornets have five veterans who will earn more than Walker next season, and all of them except for Howard remain under contract for multiple years.

With those five players totaling more than $88MM on next year’s cap and providing modest production, the Hornets are hamstrung when it comes to upgrading their roster. Attaching one or two of those players to Walker in a trade would help Charlotte create a little financial flexibility and kick-start a rebuild, but if Walker isn’t moved, it’s not clear how the team can get out from under any of those contracts without attaching another asset.

If the Hornets simply want to create a little more breathing room below the tax line and cut costs slightly, Jeremy Lamb is probably the most realistic trade candidate. Lamb is entering a contract year and is more affordable ($7.49MM) than many of his teammates. He’s also coming off his best NBA season (12.9 PPG, .370 3PT%), meaning Charlotte could actually ask for a draft pick in a trade involving him, rather than having to surrender one.

3. Will the Hornets sit out free agency?

Even if the Hornets move Lamb or another one of their more expensive players, the odds of the team clearing any cap room are extremely slim. At best, Charlotte figures to have its $8.5MM mid-level exception available when the new league year begins on July 1.

The Hornets’ free agent pursuits this summer could provide a hint at what sort of players Kupchak and Borrego want to bring aboard, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the club opts to sit out the first week or two of free agency, perhaps going bargain-hunting once the dust has settled.

The Hornets aren’t just one or two signings away from contention, and virtually all of last year’s contributors remain under contract. On top of that, team ownership may not be eager to carry a salary well over the cap again during a retooling period. As such, Charlotte’s offseason action may come almost exclusively via trades and the draft rather than on the free agent market.

4. What will the Hornets do with the No. 11 pick?

The Hornets’ roster doesn’t feature a ton of cornerstone pieces at the moment, but let’s assume the team wants to keep Walker and try to re-sign him in 2019. In that case, the backcourt has a pair of possible long-term building blocks in Walker and Malik Monk, making the frontcourt a greater area of concern for Charlotte in the draft.

As such, we could see the Hornets give serious consideration to players like Robert Williams, Kevin Knox, and Miles Bridges at the No. 11 spot in the draft. Bridges, in particular, would be an intriguing addition as an inexpensive alternative to veterans like Kidd-Gilchrist, Williams, and Batum. The MSU forward has upside as a two-way wing and is a “freakish” athlete, according to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, who has Bridges going to Charlotte in his latest mock draft. The Hornets could use a player with that skill set.

Williams would also be an appealing option with Howard’s time in Charlotte likely nearing an end. The Texas A&M big man has the ability to evolve into a defensive anchor at center who won’t hurt you on the offensive end.

5. Will the Hornets explore a rookie scale extension with Frank Kaminsky?

The Hornets famously turned down a massive offer from the Celtics for the No. 9 pick in the 2015 draft, opting to use the selection to nab Kaminsky. Three years later, it’s not clear if the former Wisconsin standout has a long-term future in Charlotte, especially with a new general manager in place.

Kaminsky, who becomes extension-eligible for the first time on July 1, enjoyed his most productive season in 2017/18, averaging 11.1 PPG on .429/.380/.799 shooting in just 23.2 minutes per contest. Still, while he has potential to develop into a reliable stretch four or five on offense, Kaminsky isn’t a particularly effective rebounder or defender, limiting his value.

With so many multiyear commitments already on their books, the Hornets will likely wait until 2019’s free agent period to make a decision on Kaminsky, giving Kupchak more time to assess his long-term fit.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Hornets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Nicolas Batum ($24,000,000)
Dwight Howard ($23,819,725)
Marvin Williams ($14,087,500)
Cody Zeller ($13,528,090)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($13,000,000)
Kemba Walker ($12,000,000)
Jeremy Lamb ($7,488,372)
Frank Kaminsky ($3,627,842)
Malik Monk ($3,447,480)
Willy Hernangomez ($1,544,951)
Dwayne Bacon ($1,378,242)
Total: $117,922,202

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Julyan Stone ($1,656,092)¹
Total: $1,656,092

Restricted Free Agents

Treveon Graham ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total: $1,699,698

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 11 overall pick ($3,346,518)
Michael Carter-Williams ($3,240,000): Non-Bird rights
Total: $6,586,518

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

With 11 of their 14 current players still on guaranteed contracts next year, the Hornets don’t have a whole lot of flexibility. Adding those 11 salaries to the team’s cap hold for its lottery pick works out to a total team salary of $121,268,720, which is well above the cap and may be right around the tax line.

Footnotes:

Stone’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Los Angeles Lakers

June 5th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Incredibly, prior to their recent playoff drought, the Lakers had never missed the postseason for more than two consecutive years. The current streak is now up to five straight non-playoff seasons. While this stretch of futility is certainly a source of angst for Lakers fans and many in the organization, the team has taken the right approach to roster-building since new president of basketball operations Magic Johnson and general manager Rob Pelinka took the reins in 2017.

Rather than trying to force their way back into contention by signing non-stars to lucrative free agent contracts, as the franchise did with Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng back in 2016, the current Lakers management group has focused on developing the team’s young players, complementing those prospects with veterans on short-term deals.

The Lakers being the Lakers, it’s only a matter of time before the club once again makes a splash in the free agent market. When that happens though, the team will set it sights on the very best available players, and may not be willing to settle for second- or third-tier options.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Can the Lakers land a top free agent or two?

It’s no secret that the Lakers will head into the 2018 offseason looking to secure commitments from at least one – and potentially two – of the elite free agents on the market. Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokic are viewed as slam dunks to return to their respective teams, Chris Paul is a virtual lock to re-sign in Houston, and DeMarcus Cousins‘ Achilles recovery clouds his outlook.

That leaves two primary targets for Los Angeles: LeBron James and Paul George. While James would be the dream addition, George appears to be the more realistic one. A Los Angeles native, George has reportedly been thinking about joining the Lakers for some time, and a first-round exit in Oklahoma City this spring didn’t exactly increase the Thunder’s chances of bringing him back.

If the Lakers could strike a deal with George, it would make James’ decision very interesting. LeBron will have a number of appealing options to consider, including possibly going to Houston or Philadelphia, but heading to Hollywood might be the best move for his brand. Adding James and George to a promising young core that includes Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Kyle Kuzma would make the Lakers a very attractive destination for role-playing veterans looking to join a contender.

2. What’s Plan B if the Lakers miss out on their primary targets?

While the Lakers could make compelling pitches to George and James, there’s no guarantee that either player will decide to head west. The franchise needs to be prepared to quickly change course if it becomes clear that those top free agents aren’t coming.

Using all their cap room to sign lesser free agents to long-term deals would be a mistake, and one that the Lakers can’t afford to repeat after committing approximately $136MM to Mozgov and Deng in 2016. Johnson and Pelinka recognize that, which is why we’ve heard whispers all year that the Lakers would be happy to preserve their cap flexibility for 2019.

Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, and Kevin Love are among the players who can become unrestricted free agents in 2019, so the Lakers could have plenty of options a year from now. For what it’s worth, Leonard, Thompson, and Love were all born in Los Angeles.

While waiting until 2019 to spend big on long-term deals is a viable route for the Lakers, they’ll need to get to the salary floor in 2018/19 somehow. That could mean signing or acquiring more players on one-year contracts, like they did with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brook Lopez last summer. Exploring trade options makes sense too — someone like Leonard could be available now, a year before he reaches free agency, so the Lakers will want to kick the tires and find out the Spurs’ asking price.

3. Is Julius Randle a part of the Lakers’ young core?

One wild card impacting the Lakers’ free agent plans is Randle, who looked early last season like a player who might be moved at the trade deadline. The former seventh overall pick broke out in a big way once he was inserted into the starting lineup in late December, averaging 18.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 3.1 APG in his last 49 games. Now, he looks like a potential keeper for Los Angeles.

Still, simply re-signing Randle isn’t necessarily the obvious move for the Lakers, whose path to two maximum-salary free agents spots would be complicated by the big man’s $12.45MM cap hold. If a team like the Mavericks swoops in and signs Randle to an aggressive offer sheet early in free agency, the Lakers will be under pressure to get decisions from George and/or James before determining how to handle Randle.

If Randle does sign an offer sheet with another team, the 48-hour window for the Lakers to match wouldn’t start until July 6, so the team will have some breathing room at the start of the new league year to get its affairs in order. Additionally, signing two max free agents and keeping Randle around isn’t technically impossible. But a lucrative new contract for the 23-year-old would have a ripple effect on the Lakers’ free agent plans in 2018 and possibly 2019 too, so it’ll be a crucial decision.

4. Is this the time to waive and stretch Luol Deng?

The Lakers may not be willing to attach a first-round pick or a young player to Deng’s contract to move him, preferring to save their assets by simply cutting him. Waiving and stretching Deng this offseason would reduce his 2018/19 cap hit from $18MM to just $7.36MM. Of course, it would also extend his cap charges for a few extra years — rather than coming off the books in 2020, he’d remain on L.A.’s cap until 2023 if he’s waived and stretched before September 1.

Ultimately, the decision on what to do with Deng figures to come down to how the rest of the Lakers’ offseason plays out. If L.A. doesn’t need that extra $10MM+ in cap space, there’s no reason for the team to rush into a roster move with the veteran forward.

In a scenario where the Lakers strike out on top free agents, waiting until September to make a call on Deng would make sense. If he’s still on the roster beyond August 31, Deng’s full 2018/19 salary would remain on the Lakers’ cap at its current $18MM figure, but the team could stretch his 2019/20 salary ($18.81MM) across three seasons, creating a little extra flexibility for 2019.

5. Can the Lakers nab another late-first-round steal?

No. 2 overall pick Ball dominated the offseason conversation in Los Angeles a year ago, arriving in the NBA from UCLA and promptly leading the Lakers’ Summer League squad to a championship. Once the regular season started though, it was 27th overall pick Kuzma who was the team’s most impressive rookie, posting 16.1 PPG and 6.3 RPG with a .450/.366/.707 shooting line for the year.

The second-half play of No. 30 pick Josh Hart shouldn’t be overlooked either. From the start of February through the end of the season, Hart averaged 14.1 PPG and 7.3 RPG on .506/.440/.766 shooting.

Most teams’ success rate on late first-round picks isn’t particularly high, but it looks like the Lakers went two for two in 2017. This time around, the team won’t have its own lottery pick, but holds Cleveland’s selection (No. 25), giving the front office another chance to strike gold late in the first round.

It’s hard to say who will be available at that point, but the Lakers have been linked frequently to Mitchell Robinson, who is something of a mystery man after not playing a single college game. Whether he’s the Lakers’ guy or the team goes in another direction, that player will be worth keeping an eye on after the early success of Kuzma and Hart.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Lakers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Luol Deng ($18,000,000)
Lonzo Ball ($7,461,960)
Brandon Ingram ($5,757,120)
Kyle Kuzma ($1,689,840)
Josh Hart ($1,655,160)
Total: $34,564,080

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Tyler Ennis ($1,656,092)¹
Ivica Zubac ($1,544,951)²
Thomas Bryant ($1,378,242)³
Total: $4,579,285

Restricted Free Agents

Julius Randle ($5,564,134 qualifying offer / $12,447,726 cap hold): Bird rights
Travis Wear ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Andre Ingram ($1,537,872 qualifying offer / $1,537,872 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total: $15,685,296

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Brook Lopez ($33,963,525): Bird rights
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($21,295,073): Non-Bird rights
Channing Frye ($14,099,733): Bird rights
Isaiah Thomas ($11,896,651): Bird rights
No. 25 overall pick ($1,746,957)
Total: $83,001,939

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $48,084,682

A handful of wild cards will impact how much cap room the Lakers have – or need – this summer. For our projection, we’ve assumed they keep all five players on guaranteed contracts along with cap holds for Randle, their first-round pick, and five empty roster spots. That results in a total team salary of $52,915,318.
If landing two star free agents looks like a realistic possibility, Los Angeles could create the room necessary for a pair of max contracts. For instance, by waiving and stretching Deng, renouncing Randle, and trading their first-round pick, the Lakers could create $70,423,432 in space. Ultimately, their approach to the offseason may be dictated by how their conversations with those top free agents go.

Footnotes:

Ennis’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 5.
Zubac’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Bryant’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 5.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New York Knicks

June 1st, 2018 at 5:29pm CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks’ 29-53 record in 2017/18 was technically the team’s worst mark of the last three years, but the season as a whole didn’t feel like the worst of those three. Because the Knicks entered the ’17/18 campaign with reduced expectations, finishing 24 games below .500 wasn’t a massive disappointment — it was expected.

Of course, these wouldn’t be the modern-day Knicks if there wasn’t at least some drama and heartbreak. Joakim Noah, exiled from the team after an altercation with head coach Jeff Hornacek, was responsible for much of the drama, while Kristaps Porzingis‘ ACL tear provided the heartbreak.

Assuming Porzingis can make a full recovery from that ACL tear, the injury may actually benefit the Knicks in the long term, since Porzingis’ long recovery will force the club to exercise patience in its rebuilding process. With David Fizdale assuming the reins from Hornacek, there’s some reason for optimism in New York, but the team will have several important decisions on its plate this offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What’s going on at the center position?

For much of the season, we wrote about a logjam at the center spot on the Knicks’ depth chart. After a promising rookie season, Willy Hernangomez was out of the rotation, and the same was true of the highly-paid Noah, as Enes Kanter and Kyle O’Quinn played the majority of the minutes at the five.

Now, Hernangomez is a Hornet, Noah’s future with the franchise is uncertain, and Kanter and O’Quinn both have player option decisions to make for 2018/19, raising questions about who exactly will be manning the middle for the Knicks next season.

Let’s start with the player options. O’Quinn’s decision looks simple — he’ll opt out. At that point, it will be up to the Knicks how aggressively they want to try to keep him. O’Quinn figures to get a multiyear deal, and he’ll be in line for a raise over last year’s $4MM salary.

Kanter, meanwhile, has a slightly trickier decision on his option. Exercising it seems like the right move, since he won’t match his $18.6MM option salary on the open market. However, he could exceed that figure in terms of total salary on a multiyear contract, which is why he’s been talking about opting out. If Kanter were to pick up his option, it would reduce the number of decisions for the Knicks to make, but this situation remains very much up in the air.

On the Noah front, there has been talk about waiving him after September 1, when the team could keep his $18.53MM cap hit for 2018/19 on its books, stretching his 2019/20 cap charge ($19.3MM) across three seasons. By the start of September, the Knicks’ center situation will be clearer, so perhaps it will make sense to jettison Noah if the team has a couple other solid options at the position. But with a new head coach in place and no rush to clear cap room, it might be worth keeping Noah around to see if he can bounce back at all after a lost season.

2. Is the Knicks’ long-term point guard currently on the roster?

Having previously had a glut of talent at the center position, the Knicks now find themselves with several options at point guard. However, as was the case at the five, the point guard situation could become unsettled quickly. Emmanuel Mudiay and Trey Burke will both be eligible for free agency in 2019, and the Knicks seem increasingly convinced that Frank Ntilikina might be more effective off the ball.

Ntilikina’s role will be the most pressing question for the Knicks to address, since no player on the roster is under team control for longer than the 19-year-old — no matter where he plays, he’s a future building block.

There’s no question about which position former lottery picks Mudiay or Burke should be playing, but it remains to be seen whether they can be reliable long-term contributors for the Knicks. Although Burke looked great in 36 games for New York last season, his previous 267 NBA games were much more of a mixed bag. As for Mudiay, he has also been inconsistent since entering the league in 2015, but he’s still just 22 years old, and a full training camp with the Knicks could give him a better chance to unlock his potential next season.

3. What will the Knicks do with the No. 9 pick?

While the Knicks could simply enter next season with Ntilikina, Mudiay, and Burke at the point guard spot and figure things out over the course of the year, the team’s 2018 first-rounder may provide an opportunity to land a long-term solution at the position. If Trae Young and/or Collin Sexton are on the board when New York picks at No. 9, either one might represent the best player(s) available, and a rebuilding franchise like the Knicks should be prioritizing talent over need.

Still, the Knicks will have other options. Small forwards Mikal Bridges and Miles Bridges have frequently been linked to the club, and they rank right behind Sexton at 10th and 11th on Jonathan Givony’s big board at ESPN.com, so they wouldn’t be reaches at No. 9. Villanova’s Bridges, in particular, would be a nice fit on a Knicks squad that could use a sharpshooting wing with defensive versatility.

4. Will Kristaps Porzingis be extended this offseason?

Porzingis is one of 23 players eligible for a rookie scale extension, and his case is perhaps the most interesting of the bunch. On the surface, a max extension for Porzingis as soon as possible seems like the logical move for both sides, but there are mitigating factors in play. Porzingis will still be several months away from returning to the court on July 1, when he first become extension-eligible. The Knicks might want to wait and monitor his rehab process before committing $150MM+ to a player recovering from a major knee injury.

It’s also not a certainty that Porzingis would rush into a long-term agreement with the Knicks. He has expressed some frustration with the franchise over the last couple years, and while he seems enthusiastic about the hiring of Fizdale, he may not be ready to sign away his next five seasons without having played a game for his new head coach.

Throw in the fact that waiting until 2019 on a new deal for Porzingis could give the Knicks more financial flexibility next summer, and an early extension is hardly a slam dunk. It wouldn’t surprise me if the two sides do get something done, but if they do, I think it’ll happen closer to the mid-October deadline than to July 1, when that extension window first opens.

5. Who are the trade candidates on the Knicks’ roster?

With the Knicks not looking to contend right away, the club should be willing to listen to trade offers on pieces who could help other teams immediately and may not be part of New York’s long-term plans. Courtney Lee is the most obvious candidate here — he’s coming off a very productive season (12.0 PPG, .454/.406/.919 shooting). While he’s not cheap, the remainder of Lee’s contract (two years, $25MM) isn’t bad at all compared to some of the price tags on other lesser 3-and-D players around the NBA. Lee’s name came up in trade rumors prior to the 2018 deadline, and I’d expect it to happen again this offseason.

Outside of Lee, the Knicks don’t have many clear trade candidates. Noah’s contract is virtually unmovable, Ron Baker has negative trade value, and Tim Hardaway Jr. isn’t going anywhere. The only other player who might make sense as a veteran trade chip is forward Lance Thomas. The native New Yorker isn’t really a bargain at $7.1MM, but his non-guaranteed salary for 2019/20 may appeal to teams, and he can be a useful defender and role player — even if he won’t necessarily live up to the Draymond Green comparison from his new head coach.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Knicks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Joakim Noah ($18,530,000)
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($17,325,000)
Courtney Lee ($12,253,780)
Lance Thomas ($7,119,650)
Kristaps Porzingis ($5,697,054)
Ron Baker ($4,544,400): Exercised player option
Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,294,480)
Frank Ntilikina ($4,155,720)
Damyean Dotson ($1,378,242)
Total: $75,298,326

Player Options

Enes Kanter ($18,622,514)
Kyle O’Quinn ($4,256,250)
Total: $22,878,764

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Trey Burke ($1,795,015)¹
Troy Williams ($1,544,951)²
Total: $3,339,966

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 9 overall pick ($3,708,089)
Michael Beasley ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Jarrett Jack ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $6,707,485

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

There are a number of variables in play when it comes to cap space for the Knicks. Our projection assumes that Kanter will pick up his player option and that the team will retain all 10 players currently under contract – including the non-guaranteed deals – along with its first-round pick. Combining all those cap hits would take team salary to almost exactly $101MM.

Footnotes:

Burke’s salary becomes guaranteed for $100K after July 10 and guaranteed for $400K after the first game of the 2018/19 regular season.
Williams’ salary becomes guaranteed for $100K after August 1 and guaranteed for $200K after the first game of the 2018/19 regular season.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Brooklyn Nets

May 31st, 2018 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The blockbuster 2013 trade with the Celtics continued to haunt the Nets in 2017/18, as the team found itself mired in the lottery race all season long despite not holding its own 2018 first-round pick. That selection (No. 8 overall) will end up with the Cavaliers, but there’s a silver lining for Brooklyn: 2018’s pick is the last remnant of that Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett mega-deal. Starting next year, the Nets will once again control their first-rounders.

While they waited to regain control of those first-rounders, the Nets didn’t simply bide their time and wait for better opportunities to acquire talent. Accommodating salary dumps like Timofey Mozgov and DeMarre Carroll, the Nets acquired first-round picks and young players like D’Angelo Russell. Now, with the handcuffs imposed by that Celtics trade finally about to come off, GM Sean Marks and his staff will have a little more flexibility to advance the Nets’ rebuild.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will Joe Harris re-sign with the Nets?

One upside of the Nets’ lengthy rebuild and their dearth of lottery picks was the opportunity to give unheralded players a chance to earn minutes. Harris, a 2014 second-rounder who was unable to carve out a role in Cleveland, enjoyed a breakout season in 2017/18 for the Nets, averaging 10.8 PPG on .491/.419/.827 shooting.

While Harris isn’t an elite defender, players who shoot like he can are highly sought-after in today’s NBA, so the Nets figure to face some competition for the 26-year-old. Still, Harris has spoken glowingly about his experience in Brooklyn, and doesn’t sound like a player looking to move on to greener pastures.

It’s probably unfair to expect a former second-round pick like Harris to sign a team-friendly contract, since he may never get a better shot at a big payday. However, the Nets can afford to bring him back at his market rate, and will be in good position to do so even though he’s not a restricted free agent. Re-signing Harris at anything less than the mid-level exception should be viewed as a favorable outcome for Brooklyn.

2. Will the Nets venture back into the restricted free agent market?

Before the Nets attempt to finalize a new deal with Harris, whose cap hold is minimal, the club figures to explore the free agent market to see if it wants to place a bid on any outside targets. Unlike in 2016 and 2017, the Nets don’t project to have significant cap room this summer, with $81MM+ already tied up in guaranteed contracts. As such, we likely won’t see the club propose any offer sheets as sizable as the ones for Otto Porter last year or Allen Crabbe two years ago.

Nevertheless, the Nets have a little breathing room to go after a restricted free agent and offer more than the mid-level. The team has shown a willingness to consistently dive into that market, having signed four restricted free agents to offer sheets in the last two years. All those offers were matched, but that probably won’t discourage Marks from trying again. It will be worth watching to see if Brooklyn goes after an intriguing second-tier RFA like Spurs forward Kyle Anderson or Clippers big man Montrezl Harrell.

3. How aggressively will the Nets pursue extensions for D’Angelo Russell and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson?

In 2019, the Nets could have a couple of their own restricted free agents to worry about, but the club has the opportunity to prevent Russell and/or Hollis-Jefferson from reaching the market next July by working out extensions this offseason. Both players will be eligible to sign new deals between July 1 and the start of the 2018/19 regular season.

Russell, in particular, is an interesting case. In order to acquire the Lakers guard last June, the Nets took on Mozgov’s burdensome contract and surrendered longtime Net Brook Lopez, along with the first-round pick that became Kyle Kuzma. While that package was a signal that Brooklyn believed in the former second overall pick, Russell battled injuries and inconsistency in 2017/18, clouding his long-term value. Despite his struggles, Russell is only 22 years old, and if the Nets are still confident that he’s a franchise cornerstone, this offseason could provide a golden opportunity to get a modest discount on his next contract.

Hollis-Jefferson, meanwhile, has made impressive strides during his three years with the Nets, setting new career highs in PPG (13.9), RPG (6.8), FG% (.472), and several other categories last season. The 23-year-old is a sort of bizarro version of Harris — neither player is a bona-fide 3-and-D wing, but Harris’ three-point shooting provides more value than his defense, while the reverse is true for Hollis-Jefferson, a career 23.7% shooter from beyond the arc. If RHJ can improve his three-point shot, his value would increase substantially, but until the Nets see proof of that, they may be reluctant to invest too heavily.

4. What’s the outlook for the backcourt?

With Russell frequently sidelined and Jeremy Lin out for the entire year, Spencer Dinwiddie emerged as a reliable point guard option for the Nets in 2017/18, and remains under contract for the minimum next season. All three players figure to be healthy to start the 2018/19 campaign, which is a good problem for the Nets to have, but still raises some questions about what the backcourt rotation will look like.

If Russell, Lin, and Dinwiddie all stick with the Nets through the summer, the club will probably have to play a couple of them alongside one another in order to make sure they all get enough minutes. But Brooklyn also has a pair of pretty solid options at shooting guard, in Crabbe and Caris LeVert.

The Nets can probably get away with playing three of those five guards at a time on a regular basis, and if the team is hit with the injury bug again, those depth chart issues will go away quickly. Still, the backcourt is an area of strength that the club could consider dealing from this offseason.

5. What does the Nets’ rebuilding timeline look like?

The Nets have won between 20 and 28 games in each of the last three seasons. In a typical rebuilding process, the front office would be talking about taking the next step around this point, and we’d be speculating on possible veteran free agent additions who could help the club reach the playoffs in 2018/19.

However, this has been an atypical rebuild due to the Nets’ lack of lottery picks, and the team may not be ready to accelerate the process quite yet. That doesn’t mean Brooklyn should tank next season, but it does mean that it probably doesn’t make sense to target win-now free agents anytime soon.

The focus in Brooklyn should remain on player development, with the team looking to identify more long-term building blocks. If those players exceed expectations and put the Nets in the playoff hunt next season, that’s great. If not, the team will finally have the opportunity to make a lottery pick in 2019.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Allen Crabbe ($18,500,000)
Timofey Mozgov ($16,000,000)
DeMarre Carroll ($15,400,000)
Jeremy Lin ($12,516,746): Exercised player option
D’Angelo Russell ($7,019,698)
Deron Williams ($5,474,787) — Waived via stretch provision
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($2,470,357)
Jarrett Allen ($2,034,120)
Caris LeVert ($1,702,800)
Total: $81,118,508

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Spencer Dinwiddie ($1,656,092)¹
Isaiah Whitehead ($1,544,951)²
Total: $3,201,043

Restricted Free Agents

Nik Stauskas ($4,333,931 qualifying offer / $11,421,441 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $11,421,441

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Jahlil Okafor ($6,313,832): Bird rights
Randy Foye ($3,000,000): Non-Bird rights³
Dante Cunningham ($2,760,000): Non-Bird rights
No. 29 overall pick ($1,618,324)
Quincy Acy ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
Joe Harris ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
Total: $16,691,552

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $13,562,427

Our Nets cap projection includes the eight players on guaranteed contracts, the two non-guaranteed contracts, and the cap holds for Harris and the team’s first-round pick. That results in a total team salary of $87,437,573. Waiving Whitehead or renouncing Harris would create a little more cap room, though the difference would be pretty marginal. Any path to more significant space would have to be involved trades or cuts.

Footnotes:

Dinwiddie’s salary becomes guaranteed for $250K after October 31.
Whitehead’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Foye’s cap hold remains on the Nets’ books because he didn’t sign a new contract after reaching free agency in 2017. The team could renounce this hold at any time.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Chicago Bulls

May 30th, 2018 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Bulls sent Jimmy Butler to Minnesota in a draft-night trade last June, it was a signal that the team intended to embark on an all-out rebuild. Veterans like Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade were also jettisoned and Chicago entered the 2017/18 season as Las Vegas’ odds-on favorite to finish dead-last in the NBA.

Improbably though, veterans such as Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis – who were involved in a practice altercation that resulted in facial fractures for Mirotic and a lengthy suspension for Portis – and youngsters like Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn helped lead the Bulls to a solid first half. The club eventually fell out of playoff contention and bottomed out as expected, but its 27-55 record was only tied for the NBA’s sixth-worst mark.

That first-half success was a double-edged sword for the Bulls — while it ultimately prevented the franchise from landing a top-five pick, Mirotic’s impressive play helped the club acquire another first-round selection, and the promising performances from guys like Markkanen and Dunn bode well for the future. The Bulls will enter the 2018 offseason looking to keep adding to that core.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What will Zach LaVine‘s new contract look like?

LaVine was perhaps the most important piece of the Bulls’ return for Butler at the time of the trade, despite being in the midst of an ACL recovery. Dunn had just endured an uninspiring rookie season and Markkanen wasn’t considered a slam-dunk prospect. LaVine, on the other hand, was coming off an age-21 season in which he posted 18.9 PPG on .459/.387/.836 shooting. While the Bulls didn’t sign him to a rookie scale extension last fall, they expressed confidence about getting something done with the young shooting guard in restricted free agency.

Now, with LaVine’s free agency right around the corner, that approach looks like it was the right one. LaVine, who struggled in 24 games in 2017/18, hasn’t exactly boosted his stock during his time in Chicago, and cap room around the NBA will be scarce this summer. At one point, it seemed like LaVine might require a $100MM investment, but that’s far from a sure thing now.

Something in the range of Gary Harris‘ extension with the Nuggets (four years, $74MM) seems more reasonable for LaVine, and it’s possible the Bulls can get an even greater discount if they don’t face stiff competition on the RFA market. It would only take one team high on LaVine to mess with the Bulls’ plans – as we saw last summer with the Knicks and Tim Hardaway Jr. – but if that team doesn’t surface this offseason, Chicago has a chance to lock up a core player at a more team-friendly rate than anticipated.

2. What will the Bulls do with the No. 7 pick?

With Dunn, LaVine, and Markkanen viewed as the cornerstones in Chicago, small forward and center represent the club’s most glaring long-term holes. The Bulls shouldn’t draft for positional need with a pick as high as No. 7, but as it so happens, there are a handful of intriguing small forwards and centers who figure to be on the board at that spot.

In his latest mock draft, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony has the Bulls nabbing Duke center Wendell Carter Jr., noting that Carter is the sort of promising young big man who would complement Markkanen in the frontcourt. Although he’s only 19 years old, Carter is a polished player whose basketball IQ and versatile skill set make him an attractive prospect, Givony notes.

If the Bulls opt for a small forward, Michael Porter Jr. and Mikal Bridges figure to be the top options available, with Miles Bridges potentially in the mix as well. Porter is more of a combo forward who may need to work on his shooting in order to be a reliable option at the three, but his upside is tantalizing as long as the medicals on his back check out. Mikal Bridges is a more traditional three-and-D small forward who would be a safer pick than Porter, but probably wouldn’t have the same sort of star potential.

3. What will the Bulls do with their cap space?

Even with a cap hold for LaVine on their books, the Bulls head into the 2018 offseason with the opportunity to create up to $27MM or so in cap room. That easily exceeds what most clubs around the NBA will have available, and creates an interesting opportunity for the franchise.

The Bulls aren’t just one big move away from contention, so saving that cap room until at least 2019 makes more sense for the rebuilding club. But that financial flexibility could come in handy in the short term. For instance, the Bulls could take a Nets-like approach, making a play for a young restricted free agent who could become a long-term building block — if their offer sheet is matched, they could use their cap space to acquire unwanted contracts and pick up extra picks in the process.

If the Bulls prefer not to risk eating into their 2019 cap room, a Lakers-esque approach could make more sense. A year ago, the Lakers traded for and signed players whose contracts would expire after one year, adding veterans like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brook Lopez. Having those players in the fold – along with various forms of Bird rights – will create some extra opportunities for the Lakers this coming offseason if they fall short in pursuit of their top targets.

4. Is Robin Lopez on the trade block?

The Bulls’ highest-paid player, Lopez is one veteran who will enter 2018/19 on an expiring contract. A valuable defender in the middle, Lopez would appeal to contending teams and doesn’t seem to fit the Bulls’ rebuilding timeline, so it would make sense for the club to see what it could get in a trade for the veteran center.

However, the Bulls have talked about Lopez as if he’s a key piece, with executive VP of basketball operations John Paxson referring to the big man as “an important part of our future” at season’s end. I don’t believe the Bulls would make a player like Lopez untouchable, but it sounds like they’re not eager to shop him in trade talks this summer either.

If Lopez sticks around through the offseason and remains on the Bulls’ roster as a veteran leader, the team could reconsider trade options at next winter’s deadline, or even keep him all season and then see if he fits into the club’s future plans as a free agent a year from now.

5. Will the Bulls extend Bobby Portis?

After Portis broke bones in Mirotic’s face with a punch during an October practice, there was speculation that his days in Chicago were numbered — that certainly appeared to be the preference in Mirotic’s camp. However, the Bulls’ front office didn’t see it that way, going out of its way to let Portis off the hook by suggesting to the media that Mirotic was partially responsible for instigating the altercation.

Since the incident happened behind closed doors, it’s impossible to say whether the Bulls’ portrayal was 100% accurate, but the story serves as evidence of the club’s fondness for Portis, who enjoyed a career year once he returned from his suspension (13.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG). Does the club like him enough to sign him to an extension after he becomes eligible for one on July 1? That’s less certain.

Markkanen is the Bulls’ power forward of the future, so there’s probably no urgency to get a potential backup locked up right away. The team may also be a little gun-shy after committing $32MM over four years to Cristiano Felicio last summer. And holding off on a Portis extension might allow the Bulls to better maximize their cap room in 2019, since Portis’ cap hold as a restricted free agent would be just $7.5MM. An extension in 2018 is a possibility, but I don’t think it’s likely.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Bulls financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Robin Lopez ($14,357,750)
Omer Asik ($11,286,516)
Cristiano Felicio ($8,470,980)
Lauri Markkanen ($4,536,120)
Justin Holiday ($4,384,616)
Kris Dunn ($4,221,000)
Cameron Payne ($3,263,294)
Jerian Grant ($2,639,314)
Bobby Portis ($2,494,346)
Denzel Valentine ($2,280,600)
Total: $57,934,536

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Sean Kilpatrick ($2,054,856)
Paul Zipser ($1,544,951)¹
Total: $3,599,807

Restricted Free Agents

Noah Vonleh ($4,333,931 qualifying offer / $10,515,698 cap hold): Bird rights
Zach LaVine ($4,333,931 qualifying offer / $9,606,654 cap hold): Bird rights
David Nwaba ($1,699,698 qualifying offer / $1,699,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Total: $21,822,050

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 7 overall pick ($4,403,246)
No. 22 overall pick ($1,974,488)
Total: $6,377,734

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $27,081,076

Our cap projection for the Bulls includes the amount of their 10 guaranteed contracts, cap holds for their two first-round picks, and LaVine’s cap hold, since the Bulls are viewed as a near-lock to bring him back. That result in a total team salary of $73,918,924.

Footnotes:

Zipser’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 18.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Orlando Magic

May 29th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The Magic have found themselves in the NBA’s version of no-man’s land in recent years. The franchise hasn’t secured a playoff berth since Stan Van Gundy coached the club back in 2012. However, a rebuilding period with Rob Hennigan at the helm topped out at 35 wins in 2015/16. Over the last two seasons, Orlando’s win total has been on the decline again, and the club now appears fully immersed in a re-rebuilding process under new management.

Magic general manager John Hammond and president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman, who assumed control of the front office in 2017, haven’t yet put a stamp on the franchise with an impact acquisition, but they’ll have a chance to do so soon when they name a replacement for former head coach Frank Vogel, who was let go at season’s end.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Who will the Magic hire as their new head coach?

Of the eight teams who have conducted head coaching searches this spring, five have made a hire, and two others arrived late to the market after dismissing their former coaches in early May. That leaves the Magic, who fired Vogel the morning after the regular season ended, as the team with the longest-lasting search for a new bench boss — Orlando’s search will hit the seven-week mark this Thursday.

The Magic have kept things very close to the vest as they interview candidates. Several potential contenders have emerged, including Trail Blazers assistant David Vanterpool, Spurs assistant Ime Udoka, former Hornets head coach Steve Clifford, and University of Houston coach Kelvin Sampson. However, there has been little indication which way Orlando is leaning.

With few clues from the Magic, we can only speculate on which candidate might become the new head coach in Orlando, but it would make sense for the team to follow a similar blueprint to the Hawks. Atlanta, in the midst of a rebuild, opted for an experienced assistant – Lloyd Pierce of the Sixers – who has a strong player development background, but no NBA head coaching experience. The Magic could use someone with a similar skill-set, rather than opting for a veteran head coach with a mandate to get the team to the playoffs right away.

2. What will the Magic do with the No. 6 pick?

A year ago, the Magic used the sixth overall pick to draft Jonathan Isaac, a raw, athletic forward with tremendous potential. The pick made sense for a front office led by Weltman and Hammond — in their previous jobs in Toronto and Milwaukee, respectively, those execs rolled the dice on similar projects, for better (Giannis Antetokounmpo) or for worse (Bruno Caboclo).

If the Magic follow a similar path this year, the team may be hoping that a player like Mohamed Bamba or Jaren Jackson Jr. is still available at No. 6. However, there’s another intriguing option who should be on the board when the Magic are on the clock — Oklahoma’s Trae Young, the nation’s leading scorer in 2017/18. A popular college player, Young could help generate some interest in a franchise that lacks star power. More importantly, he’d provide a huge lift to a backcourt bereft of dynamic playmaking.

3. Will Aaron Gordon be back?

Gordon may have been the closest thing the Magic had to a star-caliber player last season. Although he was a little less effective later in the season than he was at the start, Gordon enjoyed a breakout year overall, establishing new career highs in PPG (17.6), RPG (7.9), APG (2.3), 3PT% (.336), and several other categories. He’s also still just 22 years old, meaning there should be plenty of room for further growth.

Still, it’s not a lock that Gordon will be back in Orlando next season. The former fourth overall pick is a restricted free agent, so the Magic can match any offer sheet he signs, but the new management group didn’t draft him, and chose not to extend him last fall. Additionally, the club may view Isaac as its power forward of the future, meaning a long-term contract for Gordon could impede Isaac’s development.

Generally speaking, it’s not a great idea for a rebuilding club to let a promising 22-year-old player walk for nothing, so I’d be a little surprised if the Magic take that approach with Gordon — especially if no teams with cap room make an aggressive play for him. However, this will be a situation worth keeping an eye on during the first week of July.

4. Will the Magic have any cap room available?

The Magic’s handling of Gordon will likely determine whether or not the team has any cap space available this offseason. Bringing him back would almost certainly result in Orlando remaining an over-the-cap team — even if Gordon simply signs his $7.2MM qualifying offer with an eye toward unrestricted free agency in 2019, it’d be tricky for the Magic to create real cap room without making trades.

A lack of cap space shouldn’t have a major adverse effect on the Magic’s offseason plans. After all, it’s not as if the team wants to make a big splash on the free agent market this year. Still, considering how many teams will be over the cap in 2018, it would have been nice if the Magic could have carved out some space to accommodate a salary dump or two in order to nab some extra assets.

5. Will some or all of Orlando’s five highest-paid players be on the trade block?

One potential route to cap room would involve the Magic trading one or two of their own highest-paid players. That’s not an unrealistic scenario — Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross are on expiring deals, D.J. Augustin and Bismack Biyombo aren’t long-term cornerstones, and Evan Fournier‘s name has surfaced in trade rumors in the past.

Some of those players are more viable trade chips than others though. Biyombo has negative value and Ross’ injury-shortened 2017/18 campaign will limit his appeal, but there could be some value in the team’s other veterans.

Vucevic is a double-double machine who added a three-point shot to his game last season, at least to some extent (1.1 3PG, .314 3PT%); Fournier is a talented wing scorer and sharpshooter, albeit an expensive one; and Augustin enjoyed one of his most productive professional seasons in 2017/18 (10.2 PPG on .452/.419/.868 shooting). None of those vets would net a huge return, but they could appeal to playoff teams, so the Magic figure to at least explore their options on the trade market.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Magic financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Bismack Biyombo ($17,000,000)
Evan Fournier ($17,000,000)
Nikola Vucevic ($12,750,000)
Terrence Ross ($10,500,000)
D.J. Augustin ($7,250,000)
Jonathon Simmons ($6,000,000)
Jonathan Isaac ($4,969,080)
Wesley Iwundu ($1,378,242)
Shelvin Mack ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
C.J. Watson ($333,333) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $78,180,655

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Shelvin Mack ($5,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Khem Birch ($1,378,242)²
Rodney Purvis ($1,378,242)³
Total: $7,756,484

Restricted Free Agents

Aaron Gordon ($7,260,330 qualifying offer / $16,513,260 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $16,513,260

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Mario Hezonja ($5,167,231): Bird rights
No. 6 overall pick ($4,823,489)
Fran Vazquez ($3,346,518)⁴
Arron Afflalo ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Marreese Speights ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $16,336,634

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $15,501,653

Our Magic cap projection takes into account the team’s eight fully guaranteed contracts, the projected cap hold for the lottery pick, and three cap charges for empty roster spots, resulting in a total team salary of $85,985,260. In that scenario, the team would have to waive all of its non- and partially-guaranteed contracts and renounce its free agents.
The Magic may ultimately decide to remain an over-the-cap team this summer. If they want to re-sign Gordon, that’s all but guaranteed, since his $16MM+ cap hold would take them over the $101MM mark.

Footnotes:

Mack’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 25.
Birch’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 29.
Purvis’ exact contract details, including guarantee info, aren’t yet known.
Vazquez was the Magic’s 11th overall pick in 2005 and has yet to be renounced, meaning his cap hold is equal to the rookie scale amount for this year’s No. 11 pick. That cap hold will be removed when it’s officially determined that Vazquez won’t sign with the Magic for 2018/19.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Dallas Mavericks

May 25th, 2018 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

For several years following their title in 2011, the Mavericks pursued the top free agents on the market, looking to remain in contention for another championship as Dirk Nowitzki neared retirement. However, Dallas repeatedly struck out on those star free agents, finally resigning itself to embracing a rebuild in the summer of 2017, even as the clock on Nowitzki’s career continued to tick.

By keeping their 2017 lottery pick and using it to draft a long-term cornerstone in Dennis Smith Jr., the Mavs showed they have the ability to be patient when it comes to shaping their roster back into a contender. Heading into the 2018 offseason, it’s crucial that the team maintains that approach, avoiding the temptation to skip steps in the rebuilding process as they look to improve upon their worst record (24-58) in nearly two decades.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Is this Dirk Nowitzki’s last season?

After a 14-year stretch in which he earned 13 All-Star nods, Nowitzki has seen his production decline in recent years and hasn’t played in an All-Star Game since 2015. That’s to be expected — he turns 40 next month and will be entering his 21st NBA season in the fall, establishing a new record for most years spent with a single franchise.

Nowitzki remains relatively productive and even stayed healthy in 2017/18, averaging 12.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG with a .456/.409/.898 shooting line in 77 games. He’s certainly not wasting a roster spot, and the Mavericks will be happy to keep him under contract as long as he wants to play.

After a couple years when the Mavs made some questionable roster decisions in order to try to contend for one more title before Nowitzki retired, the team appears to have reconsidered that approach, which is the right move. If Nowitzki decides 2018/19 will be his last year, he’ll get a well-deserved farewell tour, but his decision shouldn’t have a real impact on the Mavs’ roster decisions this summer. Dallas needs to keep adding building blocks for the post-Nowitzki era, whether that era begins in 2019 or another year or two later.

2. Will the Mavericks be back in the market for an impact free agent?

The Mavericks’ list of failed free agent pursuits over the last several years is a long one. Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, Mike Conley, and Hassan Whiteside were among the veteran stars the Mavs were unable to land. Of the major free agents the team did lock up, two are still on the roster and neither Harrison Barnes nor Wesley Matthews looks like a particularly great value at this point.

The Mavs probably lucked out by not signing any of the players on that first list. Williams is out of the league, Howard has worn out his welcome with multiple teams, and the Jordan, Conley, and Whiteside contracts range from decent to unwanted. As for Barnes and Matthews, both are solid players, but are probably overpaid — particularly Matthews, who never looked quite the same after his Achilles injury.

The lesson here? Throwing money at veteran free agents might not be the best way to build a team. Of course, the Mavs are loaded with cap room this summer at a time when most clubs around the NBA, so it may be hard not to go after a marquee free agent. If Dallas goes in that direction, the team should be very careful about who it spends its money on.

This may be a prime opportunity to finally land a long-term center, but is DeMarcus Cousins worth a big-money investment coming off an Achilles injury of his own? Would Clint Capela continue to thrive away from Chris Paul and James Harden? Are Jusuf Nurkic or Julius Randle capable of being franchise centerpieces? All those players have question marks, so the Mavs will want to think long and hard about how to use their cap room.

3. What will the Mavericks do with the No. 5 overall pick?

If the Mavs avoid a big-money free agent, the No. 5 pick in next month’s draft may be the path to solving the center question. Five players projected to be drafted in the top 10 are centers, and while Deandre Ayton won’t be available at No. 5 and Marvin Bagley III may not be either, that should still leave some combination of Jaren Jackson Jr., Mohamed Bamba, and Wendell Carter Jr. on the board.

If the Mavs aren’t in love with any of those players, they could draft another position or even consider trading the No. 5 pick. I don’t think Dallas is far enough along in its rebuild that it’s the right time to trade a top-five selection for a veteran star, but if Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson think otherwise, that pick would have tremendous trade value. Attaching Barnes to that No. 5 pick in an offer for a star player would allow the Mavs to retain their cap room to go after a second impact player. That’s probably not a likely outcome, but it’s a path worth considering.

4. Will Harrison Barnes and/or Wesley Matthews be on the trade block?

Speaking of Barnes, now that he’s halfway through his four-year contract in Dallas, it’s worth considering how he fits into the team’s long-term plans. Given the opportunity to take on an expanded role with the Mavs, Barnes has comfortably exceeded the scoring numbers he posted in Golden State, but that’s more about volume than efficiency — After shooting .474/.394/.739 in his last two years as a Warrior, he has recorded a .457/.355/.843 shooting line in Dallas.

Barnes is a talented player, but his role and his contract ($24MM+ in 2018/19 with a $25MM+ player option for 2019/20) are outsized. If the Mavs get a decent trade offer for him, they should think about it, and the same goes for Matthews, who is entering the final year of his contract. Barnes and Matthews aren’t elite three-point shooters, but they make enough outside shots that they could draw interest from teams who desperately need three-and-D-type wings, and Dallas should listen.

5. How can the Mavericks add more shooting?

The downside of shopping Barnes and Matthews would be the prospect of the Mavs losing two of their highest-volume three-point shooters. Vets J.J. Barea and Nowitzki are reliable options from outside, but they aren’t the sort of gunners who are tossing up seven or eight attempts per game and thriving in the modern NBA.

The closest thing the Mavs have to a three-point sharpshooter is Doug McDermott, who arrived in Dallas in a deadline deal and knocked down 49.4% of his three-point attempts in 26 games with the team. However, McDermott is a free agent this summer. Because he’s restricted, the Mavs will have the opportunity to match any offer sheet McDermott receives, but his status is complicated by a cap hold worth nearly $10MM, which would significantly eat into the club’s available cap room.

If the Mavs turn to the free agent market for shooting, it will be interesting to see how much they’re willing to spend. As the Sixers showed this season, the Marco Belinellis and Ersan Ilyasovas of the world can sometimes be had at a bargain rate, so the club may not need to go after a higher-profile target to address that need.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Mavericks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Harrison Barnes ($24,107,258)
Wesley Matthews ($18,622,514): Exercised player option
Dwight Powell ($9,631,250)
Dennis Smith Jr. ($3,819,960)
J.J. Barea ($3,710,850)
Total: $59,891,832

Player Options

None

Team Options

Dirk Nowitzki ($5,000,000)
Total: $5,000,000

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dorian Finney-Smith ($1,544,951)¹
Kyle Collinsworth ($1,378,242)²
Maxi Kleber ($1,378,242)³
Total: $4,301,435

Restricted Free Agents

Doug McDermott ($4,333,931 qualifying offer / $9,884,982 cap hold): Bird rights
Yogi Ferrell ($2,919,204 qualifying offer / $2,919,204 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Salah Mejri ($1,839,228 qualifying offer / $1,839,228 cap hold): Bird rights
Aaron Harrison ($1,753,640 qualifying offer / $1,753,640 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total: $16,397,054

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Nerlens Noel ($7,956,438): Bird rights
No. 5 overall pick ($5,310,672)
Seth Curry ($3,936,933): Early Bird rights
Total: $17,204,043

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $30,809,649

Our projection for the Mavericks includes the five players with guaranteed contracts and the cap hold for their first-round pick. Throw in six cap charges for empty roster spots and the team’s projected salary is $70,190,351, leaving more than $30MM to work with.
There are a few wild cards to consider here. I’m not including Nowitzki’s $5MM team option — if Dallas wants to maximize its cap room, it could decline that option and ultimately bring back Dirk on a minimum-salary deal, if he’s open to that. Creating the most possible cap room would also mean waiving non-guaranteed players like Finney-Smith and renouncing all the free agents, including McDermott, Curry, Ferrell, and Mejri. So in actuality, the Mavs could have far less space to work with, though it still should be enough to aggressively pursue a top restricted free agent.

Footnotes:

Finney-Smith’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 5.
Collinsworth’s exact contract details, including guarantee dates, aren’t yet known.
Kleber’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Memphis Grizzlies

May 24th, 2018 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

With the Grizzlies projected to be a middle-of-the-pack team heading into the 2017/18 season, I wrote last September that there was little chance of the club bottoming out entirely as long as Mike Conley and Marc Gasol stayed healthy. But Conley didn’t stay healthy, appearing in just 12 games. And sure enough, the Grizzlies bottomed out without him, firing head coach David Fizdale and finishing with a 22-60 record, the NBA’s second-worst mark.

Conley and Gasol can still be a very productive duo, but they’re both getting older and health will remain a concern going forward. Of course, it goes without saying that the same caveat applies to the team’s other maximum-salary player, Chandler Parsons, who has appeared in just 70 games since signing with the Grizzlies two years ago.

Armed with a top-five pick and a few standout veterans, the Grizzlies could bounce back in 2018/19 if they have better health luck, but given the ages and injuries histories of their core players, it may be unrealistic to bank on that.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Is this the start of a rebuild or a blip on the radar?

The most favorable way to frame the Grizzlies’ 2017/18 season is to compare it what happened to the Spurs in 1996/97. After seven straight playoff appearances, San Antonio lost David Robinson for the season, went 20-62, nabbed Tim Duncan with the No. 1 pick in the draft, and immediately returned to title contention with Duncan and a healthy Robinson the following season. The Spurs won the NBA Finals two years later, and haven’t missed the postseason since.

Like those Spurs, the Grizzlies had earned seven consecutive playoff appearances prior to last season’s disaster. And with Conley on the way back, Memphis doesn’t view itself as a rebuilding club. The Grizzlies probably won’t follow in the Spurs’ footsteps by winning a title anytime soon, but they figure to focus on getting back into the playoffs immediately, which means we shouldn’t expect the team to sell off pieces this summer.

2. Will the Marc Gasol trade rumors start up again?

If the Grizzlies expect to rebound rather than rebuild, any Gasol trade rumors that surface in the coming months figure to be shot down just like the ones during the season were. Still, this is an issue that could extend into the regular season if Memphis doesn’t get off to a good start.

Gasol’s contract calls for a $24MM+ salary in 2018/19, with a $25.5MM+ player option for 2019/20. That’s a high price tag, but it’s one that plenty of teams would be interested in taking on. The Heat, for instance, would likely jump at the chance to swap their similarly-priced center, Hassan Whiteside, for Gasol.

The Grizzlies don’t have a ton of appealing trade assets under team control, so if they do decide to take a step back and rework their roster at some point within the next year or so, shopping Gasol may represent their best chance to pick up young players or picks. His status will be worth watching.

3. How will the drop from No. 4 to No. 2 affect the Grizzlies’ draft plans?

The Grizzlies entered the draft lottery with the second-best odds to land the No. 1 overall selection, and would be picking second overall if the order had remain unchanged. That would have put the team in position to potentially nab Real Madrid star Luka Doncic. Not only would Doncic have been a great on-court fit alongside Conley and Gasol, but he also may be the most NBA-ready player at the top of this draft, having already earned a slew of awards and titles in Europe, including the EuroLeague MVP.

While it’s possible Doncic slips to No. 4, the top prospects available at that spot are more likely to be youngsters like Jaren Jackson Jr. or Mohamed Bamba, who are far more raw than Doncic and wouldn’t necessarily be able to give Memphis positive production right away.

This is why it makes perfect sense that the Grizzlies are viewed as the team at the top of the draft most likely to make a trade — moving up could put the Grizz in position to draft Doncic, while moving down could allow the club to pick up an extra asset or two while potentially snagging a more seasoned prospect like Mikal Bridges.

4. Will the mid-level exception be enough to re-sign Tyreke Evans?

One of the biggest shockers at February’s trade deadline was the Grizzlies’ decision to hang onto Evans, rather than selling him to the highest bidder. Evans, another Memphis player who dealt with health issues this season, only appeared in six games the rest of the way, and now he’ll head into unrestricted free agency with only his Non-Bird rights, meaning the Grizzlies’ ability to offer Evans a raise is extremely limited

The Non-Bird exception won’t be enough to make a competitive offer for Evans, and the team doesn’t have cap room, so the mid-level exception is Memphis’ best bet to keep him. The MLE figures to start just shy of $8.6MM, and can be used to sign players for up to four years.

By keeping Evans through the deadline, the Grizzlies have put themselves in a tough spot. Based on his production this year (19.4 PPG, 5.2 APG, 5.1 RPG), the veteran swingman may field offers worth more than the MLE, or may receive an MLE offer from a team more appealing than the Grizzlies. That would mean getting nothing in return for a player who was a legitimate trade chip at the deadline.

On the other hand, Evans has a lengthy injury history, and the Grizzlies should be wary of bidding too aggressively on the 28-year-old just to save face. Offering a fully guaranteed three- or four-year deal using their full MLE could backfire for the Grizzlies if Evans can’t stay healthy going forward, or if his production regresses with Conley back in the lineup.

5. Should the Grizzlies have conducted a full-fledged head coaching search?

The Grizzlies were one of three teams that fired a head coach during the season and installed an interim replacement. The other two clubs – the Suns and Bucks – have since moved on from those interim coaches and brought in someone new for the permanent job, but Memphis didn’t even interview any other candidates, opting instead to extend J.B. Bickerstaff‘s contract.

The last time an NBA team removed a coach’s interim tag and gave him the permanent job was in 2016, when the Suns did so with Earl Watson. Two years later, with Phoenix in the market for a new head coach, owner Robert Sarver hinted that may have been a mistake, suggesting that the team would “cast a much wider net” this time around.

The fact that retaining their interim coach was a mistake for the Suns doesn’t necessarily mean it will be a mistake for the Grizzlies — Bickerstaff received glowing reviews from management and from his players for his work this past season. Still, his on-court results (15-48) were uninspiring, and if Memphis struggles again next season, the team’s decision not to “cast a wider net” will be second-guessed.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Grizzlies financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Mike Conley ($30,521,115)
Marc Gasol ($24,119,025)
Chandler Parsons ($24,107,258)
JaMychal Green ($7,866,667)
Ben McLemore ($5,460,000)
Jarell Martin ($2,416,222)
MarShon Brooks ($1,656,092)
Deyonta Davis ($1,544,951)
Dillon Brooks ($1,378,242)
Ivan Rabb ($1,378,242)
Rade Zagorac ($1,378,242) — Waived
Wayne Selden ($772,476) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Jamaal Franklin ($163,296) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $102,761,828

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Andrew Harrison ($1,544,951)
Omari Johnson ($1,378,242)²
Wayne Selden ($772,475) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $3,695,668

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 4 overall pick ($5,864,636)
Tyreke Evans ($3,948,000): Non-Bird rights
Mario Chalmers ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
Total: $11,312,334

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

Even before taking into account a cap hold for their No. 4 overall pick, the Grizzlies are over the projected cap with nearly $103MM in guaranteed contracts. Any path to cap room would involve major trades and/or cuts, so we can expect Memphis to be an over-the-cap club this summer, with the full mid-level exception available. The Grizzlies won’t have their bi-annual exception available this offseason after using it in 2017/18 to sign Evans.

Footnotes:

Selden’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
Johnson’s exact contract details, including guarantee info, aren’t yet known.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Atlanta Hawks

May 23rd, 2018 at 3:10pm CST by Luke Adams

After peaking with a 60-win performance in 2013/14, the Hawks were trending in the wrong direction when new general manager Travis Schlenk assumed the reins last summer. Schlenk decided to accelerate the club’s gradual decline, allowing Paul Millsap and several other veterans to depart in free agency or trades.

The Hawks’ plan to bottom out worked — the team finished with a 24-58 record and got a little luck in the draft lottery, snagging a top-three pick. After effectively tearing things down during his first year in Atlanta, Schlenk will now be under pressure to start building the Hawks back up.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Is Dennis Schroder on the trade block?

The 2017/18 Hawks were short on star power, with Schroder representing the closest thing the team had to a star player. The 24-year-old comfortably led the team in scoring (19.4 PPG) and assists (6.2 APG), establishing new career highs in both categories.

However, there are signs that Schroder may not be a part of the next playoff team in Atlanta. He’s currently dealing with legal trouble, having been arrested on a battery charge last fall, and there are have been rumblings that he’s not exactly a positive locker room influence. Most recently, Schroder made comments suggesting that he wouldn’t mind being traded by the Hawks.

Reports as of last week indicated that neither Schroder nor his agent had formally asked the Hawks to explore possible trades, but given the mounting red flags and the fact that the new front office didn’t draft Schroder or sign him to his current extension, it’s possible that Schlenk and company aren’t married to the point guard long term. It will be worth watching to see whether Schroder’s name pops up in trade rumors this offseason.

2. What’s the timeline for the rebuild?

Schroder should just be entering his prime and is under contract at a reasonable rate of $15.5MM annually through 2021, making him a seemingly ideal cornerstone piece for a rebuild. So if Atlanta does explore trading Schroder, it’s fair to ask what sort of timeline the franchise envisions for its rebuild.

Outside of Schroder, there aren’t many promising young building blocks on the Hawks’ roster. John Collins and Taurean Prince certainly qualify, but they’re unlikely to develop into franchise-type players or perennial All-Stars.

So how might Atlanta find one or two of those players with franchise-changing potential? This year’s No. 3 pick is one tool available, though if the team is preparing for a slow rebuilding process, it might not be the last time the Hawks head into the draft with a top-five pick.

The free agent market is another potential path for the franchise, but even with $30MM+ in cap room this summer, I don’t expect Atlanta to be in the mix for top-tier free agents. The Hawks don’t seem to be eager to speed up their rebuild, so they’re probably at least a year or two away from making a serious run at veteran difference-makers in free agency.

3. How will the Hawks use their excess draft picks?

Of course, free agency isn’t the only way the Hawks could pursue a standout player. In fact, it might not even be the most effective way, since top veteran free agents are more likely choose a team closer to title contention.

Atlanta’s excess draft picks provide a more effective way for the Hawks to shop for a star. The team heads into next month’s draft with four picks in the top 34, including three first-rounders, and also holds an extra first-round selection in 2019. If the front office really wants to take things slow, it could just keep all those picks, perhaps rolling the dice on a draft-and-stash player or two so that the roster isn’t overrun with rookies.

Still, at some point it might make sense for the Hawks to consolidate their assets and dangle multiple picks in a trade offer for an established star. That may not happen this summer, but Atlanta’s collection of assets shouldn’t be overlooked in the future, especially if the club pushes those picks down the road by flipping one or two of its 2018 selections for future first-rounders.

4. Who are the Hawks targeting at No. 3?

The Hawks moved up from No. 4 to No. 3 in the lottery, but that doesn’t necessarily create more clarity about which prospect will end up on their roster. If Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic are the first two players off the board, as is widely expected, the Hawks would have their pick of big men like Marvin Bagley III, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Mohamed Bamba. Forward Michael Porter Jr. could also be a viable option at No. 3 if his medicals look good.

While Bagley is viewed by many experts as the best prospect of that group, I wonder if the defense-first mindset of new head coach Lloyd Pierce will influence the Hawks’ choice at all. Jackson and Bamba, in particular, look to have tremendous defensive upside, and would be intriguing additions next to Collins in Atlanta’s frontcourt.

5. Is Lloyd Pierce the right man for Atlanta’s head coaching job?

Speaking of Pierce, he was an interesting choice to replace Mike Budenholzer on Atlanta’s bench. If we assume that the Hawks are strapping in for a multiyear rebuilding process, a Sixers assistant seems like an ideal fit to oversee that process.

In fact, the Hawks’ hiring of Pierce bears some resemblance to the 76ers’ hiring of Brett Brown at the start of “The Process.” A longtime NBA assistant, Pierce will get the opportunity to grow into the head coaching role as his young players develop, and won’t be under pressure to win right away. His performance will instead be judged by his ability to instill a positive culture in Atlanta and to help his young players grow.

If his work in Philadelphia is any indication, Pierce seems well-equipped to achieve those goals — if he struggles to do so, Atlanta may be on the lookout for someone with more head coaching experience in two or three years when the team is ready to contend.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Hawks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Kent Bazemore ($18,089,887)
Dennis Schroder ($15,500,000)
Miles Plumlee ($12,500,000)
Taurean Prince ($2,526,840)
Jamal Crawford ($2,304,226) — Waived
John Collins ($2,299,080)
DeAndre’ Bembry ($1,634,640)
Tyler Dorsey ($1,378,242)
Total: $56,232,915

Player Options

Dewayne Dedmon ($6,300,000)
Mike Muscala ($5,000,000)
Total: $11,300,000

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Isaiah Taylor ($1,544,951)¹
Tyler Cavanaugh ($1,378,242)²
Antonius Cleveland ($1,378,242)³
Jaylen Morris ($1,378,242)
Total: $5,679,677

Restricted Free Agents

Malcolm Delaney ($3,125,000 qualifying offer / $3,250,000 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Damion Lee ($1,537,872 qualifying offer / $1,537,872 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total: $4,787,872

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Mike Muscala ($9,500,000): Bird rights (if player option is declined)
Dewayne Dedmon ($8,280,000): Non-Bird rights (if player option is declined)
No. 3 overall pick ($6,504,619)
No. 19 overall pick ($2,231,755)
No. 30 overall pick ($1,606,717)
Total: $28,123,091

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $32,761,372

For our Hawks cap projection, we’re assuming that both Dedmon and Muscala decline their player options, which isn’t necessarily a lock (Dedmon appears more likely to opt out than Muscala). We’re also assuming the team waives all its non-guaranteed players and renounces its free agents, which is hardly a sure thing either.
In that scenario, the Hawks’ seven guaranteed contracts, three first-round picks, and two cap charges for empty roster spots result in a team salary of $68,238,628. That’s nearly enough to accommodate any maximum-salary free agent, though Atlanta is unlikely to be in the market for any players of that caliber.

Footnotes:

Taylor’s salary becomes guaranteed for $300K after June 22, then fully guaranteed after July 27.
Cavanaugh’s salary becomes guaranteed for $450K after May 15, then fully guaranteed after July 7.
Cleveland’s exact contract details, including guarantee info, aren’t yet known.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Sacramento Kings

May 18th, 2018 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After trading DeMarcus Cousins during the 2016/17 season, the Kings appeared poised to embark on a full-scale rebuild. However, they hedged their bets to some extent in the 2017 offseason, inking veteran free agents like George Hill, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter to lucrative contracts in order to reach the salary floor.

Those free agent additions didn’t help much on the court in 2017/18, as the Kings fell out of playoff contention early and focused on developing their young players in the second half of the season. Now, Hill is gone and Carter seems likely to follow, as another year of rebuilding gets underway in Sacramento.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What will the Kings do with the No. 2 overall pick?

The Kings hadn’t had much luck in the draft lottery up until this week. Despite years of futility (Sacramento hasn’t made the playoffs since 2006), the franchise hadn’t secured a top-three pick since 1991. That streak ended this spring, as the Kings jumped up from No. 7 to No. 2 in the lottery standings, putting them in position to grab a potential franchise player.

Now the Kings’ front office will have to decide how to maximize the value of that second overall pick. Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic are widely considered the top two prospects in this year’s draft. Should Sacramento simply be happy to take whichever one of those two doesn’t go No. 1? Will Marvin Bagley III or another player receive serious consideration? Would the Kings explore the possibility of trading down to pick up more assets?

Sacramento is only two years removed from making Georgios Papagiannis a lottery pick, so the front office hasn’t exactly earned the benefit of the doubt. Still, given the Kings’ prime position and the relative strength of this year’s class, it seems safe to assume that the team should come out of the draft with another building block to complement De’Aaron Fox.

2. Can the Kings get back into the first round of the 2019 draft?

If the Kings do decide to move down in the draft, last year’s Celtics/Sixers swap should serve as a template. In fact, the asset Boston picked up in that trade for moving down two spots will likely end up being Sacramento’s 2019 first-round pick. Missing their own first-rounder for 2019 is bad news for the Kings, who figure to remain a lottery team a year from now, but if they can find a way to acquire another ’19 pick, that would soften the blow.

The Kings could also look to the Nets as a reference point as they go shopping on the trade market. Despite having sent their own first-round picks to other teams for several years in a row, the Nets found ways to get back into the first round or to pick up other selections, either by trading their own veterans or taking on another teams’ unwanted contracts. The Kings can head into the new league year armed with cap space and expiring contracts, so they should have some options.

3. Will any veterans be bought out or traded?

Assuming all the Kings veterans with player options pick them up – Kosta Koufos already has – Sacramento will have almost $40MM on its 2018/19 cap for the expiring contracts of Koufos, Iman Shumpert, Garrett Temple, and Zach Randolph.

While there’s something to be said for having veteran mentors on the roster to help young players develop, those particular vets may want the opportunity to join a team closer to contention, and may be willing to give up a portion of their salaries for that opportunity.

Even if the Kings don’t gain any traction on buyout talks with any of those players, or simply aren’t interested in pursuing buyouts, their expiring contracts could make them interesting trade pieces. One potential scenario would see a cap-strapped team sending a player on a longer-term contract to the Kings in exchange for one of their expiring contracts. That cap-strapped club could then waive and stretch its newly-acquired player, perhaps avoiding tax territory, while the Kings would gain multiyear control of a player who better fits their timeline.

4. Will the Kings dive back into the free agent market?

The Kings currently project to have upwards of $19MM in cap room, which isn’t as much as they had available a year ago, but is still more than most teams will have.

From an outsider’s perspective, it didn’t seem as if the Kings’ strategy of bringing in veterans like Hill, Carter, and Randolph was a huge success, but it’s possible the team views it differently. If Sacramento considers the leadership and locker room presence of that type of player valuable, then perhaps we’ll see more short-term veteran signings using that cap space this summer.

However, I believe the more likely outcome for the Kings’ cap room involves pursuing a young free agent to add to their core, or using that cap space to accommodate another team’s salary dump and pick up an asset or two in the process. Both of those approaches could benefit Sacramento in the long run.

5. What can the team expect from Harry Giles?

One of the Kings’ most interesting moves in 2017 was the decision to trade down from No. 10 in the draft to pick up the 15th and 20th picks. They used that extra selection to nab Giles, a high-upside center with a history of knee issues.

The rebuilding Kings took an ultra-conservative approach with Giles during his rookie year, initially ruling him out until 2018 and then shutting him down for the season. The youngster is now set to make his long-awaited pro debut this July in Summer League action, barring any setbacks.

The Kings have used several draft picks on big men over the last several years, and some of those players have had a more successful transition to the pros than others — Willie Cauley-Stein, for instance, could be a long-term piece, while Papagiannis was waived before the end of his second NBA season. Still, none of those young bigs have emerged as a potential cornerstone player for the franchise.

Giles may not be that guy either, but if he can stay healthy, his promise is tantalizing. It will be interesting to see what Sacramento can get out of him in 2018/19.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Kings financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Zach Randolph ($11,692,308)
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($9,000,000)
Kosta Koufos ($8,739,500): Exercised player option
De’Aaron Fox ($5,470,920)
Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,696,875)
Buddy Hield ($3,833,760)
Justin Jackson ($2,807,880)
Harry Giles ($2,207,040)
Matt Barnes ($2,133,542) — Waived via stretch provision
Georgios Papagiannis ($2,000,400) — Waived
Skal Labissiere ($1,544,951)
Frank Mason ($1,378,242)
Caron Butler ($517,219) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $56,022,637

Player Options

Iman Shumpert ($11,011,234)
Garrett Temple ($8,000,000)
Total: $19,011,234

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Nigel Hayes ($1,378,242)¹
Total: $1,378,242

Restricted Free Agents

Bruno Caboclo ($3,512,605 qualifying offer / $7,353,675 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $7,353,675

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Vince Carter ($9,600,000): Non-Bird rights
No. 2 overall pick ($7,243,344)
Total: $14,003,246

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $18,722,785

Our cap projection for the Kings includes their 10 guaranteed contracts, the cap hold for their No. 2 overall pick, and the player options for Shumpert and Temple. Taking into account all those salaries and cap holds, and assuming all free agents are renounced, the Kings’ total team salary adds up to $82,277,215.

Footnotes:

Hayes’ exact contract details, including guarantee info, aren’t yet known.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.