Five Key Offseason Questions

Five Key Offseason Questions: Phoenix Suns

May 17th, 2018 at 3:18pm CST by Luke Adams

For a third straight season, the Suns failed to reach the 25-win mark. Their 2017/18 record of 21-61 was the second-worst in franchise history and ranked dead last in the NBA, but all that losing paid off on May 15, when the club won the first overall pick in the 2018 draft lottery.

With a new head coach (Igor Kokoskov) on board and that No. 1 overall pick in hand, the Suns have some reason for optimism heading into the 2018 offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What will the Suns do with the No. 1 pick?

With plenty of talent to be found at the top of this year’s draft class, there’s no shortage of good options for the Suns. The two best ones are probably Deandre Ayton, an ultra-talented big man who played his college ball at nearby University of Arizona, and Luka Doncic, a 19-year-old EuroLeague standout who has played for Kokoskov on the Slovenian national team.

Ayton appears to be the early frontrunner, but Suns GM Ryan McDonough has said the team will take its time to make a decision. It will be interesting to see if McDonough considers trading down. A year ago, Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball represented the consensus top two, allowing Danny Ainge to pick up a valuable extra asset by moving down to No. 3 and getting the player he wanted all along.

If the Suns aren’t in love with Ayton or Doncic and another team is, McDonough could make a similar move, though the bet here is that Phoenix won’t pass up on the chance to choose a potential franchise player at No. 1.

2. Will Devin Booker get a long-term extension this year?

Whoever the Suns draft with their top pick will have to mesh with Booker, the closest thing the Suns currently have to a franchise player. Speaking of Booker, he’ll find himself in an interesting contract situation as he enters his fourth NBA season.

Booker will become eligible for a contract extension for the first time on July 1, and he and the Suns will have until the start of the regular season to work out a new long-term deal. Phoenix has no cap limitations restricting the team’s ability to make a lucrative offer to Booker. Still, it’s not clear whether the Suns will rush into an extension for their top scorer or if they’ll prefer to wait until his restricted free agency in 2019.

Even if the Suns have no doubts about securing Booker for the long term, waiting until 2019 to finalize that deal could create more cap flexibility. His cap hold as an RFA in the summer of ’19 would be just under $10MM, while an extension would immediately hit the club’s 2019/20 cap at $25MM+.

3. How will the Suns use their cap space?

The Suns’ decision on Booker could ultimately come down to how the team uses its cap room this offseason. With about $18MM available – and the ability to create more space – Phoenix could go out and pursue a top free agent. The team has been in the mix for players like LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, and Kyrie Irving in recent years, so the desire to add a star is there — maybe this is the time.

Clint Capela has been mentioned as a potential target for the Suns, though he’d make less sense if the club drafts Ayton. In order to create enough cap room to offer Capela – or another RFA – a max or near-max contract, Phoenix might need to buy out Tyson Chandler and/or Jared Dudley.

Still, while McDonough and the front office have been trying to land a star for years, they’ll want to avoid spending big money on the wrong player this summer. If they strike out on their top two or three targets, it could be more prudent to use that cap room to take on another team’s unwanted contract, picking up extra assets in the process. That could put the Suns in position to spend big in 2019, when Chandler and Dudley come off their books.

4. Is Kokoskov the right man for the head coaching job?

Kokoskov’s résumé is impressive, and he deserves a shot at a head coaching position. Still, it’s worth noting that he wasn’t Phoenix’s first choice.

It’s not clear how serious the Suns’ interest in Mike Budenholzer was, as Budenholzer withdrew his name from consideration before we knew if Phoenix would make him an offer. However, we do know the club made an offer to David Fizdale, who opted to join the Knicks instead.

Being a second or third choice doesn’t mean Kokoskov can’t become an excellent NBA head coach. However, there’s a lot of pressure on McDonough and the Suns to get this hire right. Kokoskov is the club’s seventh head coach since Mike D’Antoni left Phoenix in 2008, and the fourth coach Booker has played for since he was drafted. Everyone involved wants this relationship to turn into a long-term marriage.

5. Are Marquese Chriss and/or Dragan Bender keepers?

One of Kokoskov’s first challenges will be unlocking the potential of Chriss and Bender. Before they landed the first overall pick in this year’s draft, the Suns’ most important draft in recent history was 2016’s — it saw the team select Bender at No. 4, then trade a bevy of assets – including the rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic – to Sacramento in order to nab Chriss at No. 8. Those two young bigs looked like key pieces in the Suns’ rebuild at that point.

Two years later, both players have shown flashes of upside, but neither one has enjoyed a true breakout stretch as an NBA player. On the plus side, they’re both still just 20 years old, and if the Suns draft Ayton next month, there will be far less pressure on Chriss and Bender to become the team’s frontcourt duo of the future.

I don’t expect the Suns to turn down their 2019/20 rookie scale team options on either Chriss or Bender — as we saw this season with guys like Mario Hezonja and Kevon Looney, declining those options on young players can backfire. Still, 2018/19 could be a make-or-break year for Chriss and Bender when it comes to determining their long-term futures in Phoenix.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Suns financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Brandon Knight ($14,631,250)
Tyson Chandler ($13,585,000)
T.J. Warren ($11,750,000)
Jared Dudley ($9,530,000)
Josh Jackson ($6,041,520)
Dragan Bender ($4,661,280)
Devin Booker ($3,314,365)
Troy Daniels ($3,258,539)
Marquese Chriss ($3,206,160)
Davon Reed ($689,121) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $70,667,235

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Alan Williams ($5,520,000)²
Tyler Ulis ($1,544,951)
Shaquille Harrison ($1,378,242)³
Davon Reed ($689,121) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $9,132,314

Restricted Free Agents

Elfrid Payton ($4,749,591 qualifying offer / $9,997,020 cap hold)
Total: $9,997,020

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

No. 1 overall pick ($8,095,595)
Alex Len ($7,956,438): Bird rights
No. 16 overall pick ($2,589,510)
Total: $18,641,543

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: $18,958,539

Our projection assumes that Phoenix retains its nine guaranteed contracts, plus Reed and its two first-rounders, totaling $82,041,516. In that scenario, the Suns would renounce Payton and Len, and waive their non-guaranteed players. The team could create more room via trades or cuts.

Footnotes:

Reed’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Williams can reportedly trigger a $1MM partial guarantee by meeting certain weight, body fat, and minute requirements. His salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.
Harrison’s salary will become guaranteed for $50K after August 1.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Golden State Warriors

June 25th, 2017 at 1:38pm CST by Luke Adams

The Warriors set a new NBA record by winning 73 regular-season games in 2015/16, but 2016/17 was truly their scorched-earth season. Golden State kicked off the NBA’s new league year last summer by landing Kevin Durant, the top free agent on the market, then cruised to a 67-win regular season and turned it up another notch in the playoffs — the Dubs won 16 of 17 postseason contests en route to their second title in three years.

In the wake of the Warriors’ NBA Finals win over the Cavaliers, NBA observers fretted over Golden State’s dominance, wondering if it’s even worth it for 80% of the league’s teams to make win-now moves this summer. That means this offseason should be a cakewalk for the Warriors, right? Well… maybe not. Although they don’t expect to lose any stars, the Dubs only have five players under contract heading into July, so there’s still plenty of work to do.

Here are five key questions facing the Warriors this offseason:

1. Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant will definitely be back, right?

Yes. As fun it would be to have either of these guys lining up a handful of free agent meetings like Durant did last July, they’re not going anywhere. Both former MVPs will technically become unrestricted free agents on July 1, but they’ll quickly come to terms on new deals with the Warriors. It’s just a matter of figuring out what those new agreements will look like.

For Curry, who is eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, there’s no reason to think that the Warriors will offer him any less than the full super-max, which currently projects to pay him just over $200MM for five years. The two-time MVP has been one of the NBA’s best bargains on his current four-year, $44MM contract, and the Warriors won’t gain any additional cap flexibility by asking him to accept less than the max.

Durant’s case is a little trickier, but it sounds like he’s willing to settle for less than a maximum salary contract in 2017/18. A true max for Durant is currently projected to be worth $34.5MM next season, but the Warriors would have to create cap room to make such a deal work. By signing another short-term deal and settling instead for about $31.85MM, a 20% raise on last year’s salary, the 28-year-old would let the Warriors to stay over the cap. That would allow the team to hang onto its Bird rights for key contributors like Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.

2. So will Iguodala and Livingston be back too?

Neither Iguodala nor Livingston is a mortal lock to return, but assuming Durant signs on for a 20% raise, the Warriors have no limitations on what they could offer the duo. It would simply be a matter of determining how high they’re willing to go for players who will be, at best, the fifth and sixth options on the roster.

While Iguodala is probably the better bet to re-sign, he’ll receive plenty of interest in free agency, and a recent report suggested that he may receive offers worth upwards of $20MM annually. The same report indicated that Iguodala will seriously consider other suitors, and if they’re willing to go that high, he’d be crazy not to. But all indications are that he loves playing in Golden State, so if the Warriors are willing to make a competitive offer – even if it’s not the biggest offer – I expect the veteran swingman will be back.

Livingston may not be as high a priority for the Warriors, though he figures to be less expensive than Iguodala. The veteran point guard will turn 32 in September, making this summer one of his last chances at a big payday. If another team makes an offer worth the full mid-level exception (approximately $8.4MM) for two or three years, I could see the Warriors bidding him farewell. If Golden State could get him back for something in the range of $5-6MM per year, a return would be more realistic.

3. Who else will be along for the ride?

Golden State has several more rotation players eligible for free agency, including Zaza Pachulia, David West, JaVale McGee, and Ian Clark. However, the Warriors don’t have Bird rights for most of those players, limiting their ability to offer raises.

The Warriors would certainly like to have some of those players back, but they won’t break the bank for any of them, and it’s not clear if veterans like Pachulia and West – having won the championship they were chasing – will continue to stick around at a discounted rate. Certainly, a younger player like Clark should find a larger payday elsewhere.

If the Warriors’ current contributors don’t want to accept discounts, the team should have no problem finding players that will. Golden State will head into the 2017/18 as a massive favorite to win next year’s title, and free agents in search of a championship will want to get on the fun. Even if Pachulia and West aren’t back, there will likely be new versions of that type of veteran willing to come on board for the minimum.

4. Will Steve Kerr be good to go to start the 2017/18 season?

Kerr’s back issues forced him to miss a good chunk of the postseason this spring, which was just about the only thing that went wrong for the Warriors during the playoffs. The Golden State head coach was able to return to the sidelines for the club during the NBA Finals, and GM Bob Myers said after winning that series that there’s “no doubt” will take his place on the bench again next season. Kerr will be given time off this summer to explore various options for relieving his back pain, and to find answers for why he’s still experiencing issues related to old procedures.

The Warriors showed no signs of slowing down when Mike Brown took the reins during the postseason, and given the talent on their roster, they might still win 60 games with Riley Curry as their head coach. But Kerr has been an impressive presence and leader in Golden State, and it’d be great to see him get to a point where he can avoid another health-related hiatus down the road.

5. How long will the Warriors’ reign last?

Okay, so this isn’t a question that the Warriors can – or should – answer this offseason. But with mega-contracts for Curry and Durant around the corner, there’s a good chance the club dips into luxury-tax territory for the first time this summer, especially if Iguodala and Livingston return.

Team ownership will be fine with pay those penalties in order to keep a championship roster intact, but some long-term planning will be required to determine how long the Warriors can be a taxpayer and how deep into the tax they’re willing to go. Klay Thompson will be up for a mega-contract of his own in 2019 and Draymond Green‘s next payday will come in 2020.

The Warriors won’t have to make decisions on those guys yet, but if they plan to keep them both beyond their current deals, that may affect this offseason’s moves — the club may look to avoid signing players (besides Curry and Durant) for longer than two years, with another max salary (for Thompson) on tap for that third year.

These are first-world NBA problems, but a team that aggressively pursued Durant after winning 73 games is exactly the sort of franchise that will already be thinking about how to win the next five or six titles — not just the next one or two.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Warriors financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Klay Thompson ($17,826,150)
Draymond Green ($16,400,000)
Kevon Looney ($1,471,382)
Damian Jones ($1,312,611)
Patrick McCaw ($1,312,611)
Jason Thompson ($945,126) — Waived via stretch provision.
Total: $39,267,880

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

James Michael McAdoo ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
Total: $1,724,305

Cap Holds

Kevin Durant ($31,848,120) — Played option declined.
Stephen Curry ($18,168,539)
Andre Iguodala ($16,697,052)
Shaun Livingston ($10,986,655)
Zaza Pachulia ($3,477,600)
Matt Barnes ($1,471,382)
Ian Clark ($1,471,382)
JaVale McGee ($1,471,382)
David West ($1,471,382)
Total: $87,063,494

Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $5,637,386

Our max cap room scenario for the Warriors assumes that the Warriors renounce all their free agents except for Curry and Durant. Five guaranteed salaries, along with cap holds for Curry, Durant, and five empty roster rosters, would bring team salary to $93,362,614. In that scenario, the team could afford a max contract for Durant, but wouldn’t have any cap room left to sign other players. The more likely outcome – which would give the team a better chance to re-sign Iguodala and Livingston – involves staying over the cap and Durant accepting a 20% raise rather than a true max salary.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 24th, 2017 at 10:59am CST by Luke Adams

Coming off their third consecutive appearance in the NBA Finals, the Cavaliers are in a very unusual spot. Cleveland went 12-1 against Eastern Conference foes in the playoffs, asserting its dominance in the conference once again, but there’s still a sense that the team has to shake things up and make major moves this offseason in order to be able to truly compete with the Warriors.

For a team led by LeBron James, who has appeared in seven consecutive Finals, anything short of a championship has become a letdown. With LeBron once again just a year from potential free agency, there will be tremendous pressure on the Cavaliers’ front office this summer to make tangible upgrades to a roster that’s already extremely talented — not to mention capped out.

Here are five key questions facing the Cavs this offseason:

1. Who’s running the show?

The lucrative contracts received by the likes of Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith in recent years make it easy to joke that LeBron is the general manager in Cleveland. But the Cavs were actually fairly adept at adding talent in creative ways under David Griffin, generating and making use of trade exceptions, and finessing the cap despite being well over the tax line. Griffin and the front office deserve credit for that.

Heading into the 2017 free agent period though, Griffin is no longer making the team’s basketball decisions, having been unable to reach a new deal with owner Dan Gilbert. Senior VP Trent Redden is out as well, leaving assistant GM Koby Altman and perhaps Gilbert himself as the ones reportedly burning up the phone lines in search of a blockbuster trade.

Not every one of Griffin’s decisions as GM was optimal, and the Cavs are in a tough spot with the salary cap heading into 2017/18. But he’s a smart guy who was intimately familiar with the Cavs’ roster and knew what sort of moves were possible. It’s not clear yet if the same can be said for Chauncey Billups, who is reportedly the frontrunner to become the club’s new president of basketball operations.

Billups has no front office experience, and would likely need to be paired with an experienced executive who could step into the GM role. It’s possible that could work in the long-term, but the fact that it remains up in the air at this point in the summer – Billups is reportedly still considering an offer from Cleveland – isn’t a great sign.

2. How can the Cavaliers add an impact player in a trade?

The Cavs’ ideal scenario would be to add a fourth impact player to their core of James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving, using complementary pieces in a trade. That’s a nice thought, but probably an unrealistic one.

Beyond their three stars, the Cavs’ top contracts include Thompson ($16.4MM in 2017/18), Smith ($13.76MM), Iman Shumpert ($10.34MM), and Channing Frye ($7.42MM). Outside of Frye’s deal, those contracts all have multiple years left on them, and they’re not exactly bargains. Thompson, Smith, and Shumpert are all effective players when they’re playing well, but they’ve has consistency issues. And at those prices, teams might be better off just signing a free agent instead.

The Cavs will still look to include those guys – particularly Shumpert and Frye – in potential trades, but if they want to make a major move, their most logical trade candidate is Love. The former Timberwolf looked more at home in Cleveland in 2016/17 than he had during his first couple years with the team, but he’s the most expendable piece of the Cavs’ “big three,” especially if he could be turned into a top-tier, two-way player like Paul George.

There have been no indications that the rebuilding Pacers want to acquire a pricey veteran like Love, which is why we heard so many rumors last week about the Cavs exploring a potential three-way deal. In such a scenario, Love would be sent to that third team, which in turn would send young players and/or picks to Indiana. It’s an interesting idea, and I believe George would make the Cavs a more versatile and more dangerous team. At this point though, it doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of traction on that front.

3. If the Cavs trade one of their big three, will it definitely be Love and not Irving?

It certainly looks that way. Sam Amico of Amico Hoops reported on Thursday that the Pacers and Bulls tried to insist on Irving rather than Love in a possible deal for George or Jimmy Butler, at which point the Cavs “quickly lost interest.” It’s hard to blame them for that.

All indications are that the Cavs view Irving as a cornerstone piece who can become the team’s franchise player as LeBron enters the tail end of his career. For Cleveland to consider moving its standout point guard, it would have to be a deal for a star who meets that same criteria, and there simply aren’t that many possible franchise players out there. Ones who are as young as Irving (25) and on favorable long-term contracts are even rarer.

4. Will the Cavs be able to use free agency to add any useful pieces?

One advantage of being a perennial title contender is that the Cavs may have a chance to sign solid free agents at a reduced rate. While that has been more common for teams like the Spurs and Warriors in the last couple years (we see you, David West), there may be productive free agents willing to sign on with the Cavs for the minimum to pursue a potential title.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, the club won’t have much more than the minimum to use on free agents this summer. Assuming they don’t shed salary to get out of tax territory, which would be a long shot, the Cavs will lose their full mid-level exception and their bi-annual exception, as well as their ability to acquire a free agent via sign-and-trade, leaving them with the taxpayer mid-level exception. That MLE will be worth $5.192MM and can be used to sign contracts up to three years.

That’s a useful little piece, and should be enough to add a solid rotation player, but there’s no guarantee that team ownership is prepared to use it. With the Cavaliers poised to face repeater tax penalties in 2017/18, a $5.192MM contract would cost the club exponentially more in taxes — the exact amount depends on how far over the tax the Cavs are, but repeater penalties start at $2.50 per dollar spent over the tax, and only increase from there. If the Cavs intend to use that MLE, they’ll have to be very confident that the player they’re signing is worth it, because he’ll be extremely expensive.

5. Is it time to start worrying about LeBron’s long-term future in Cleveland?

In the wake of the Cavs’ Finals loss, rumblings about James possibly bolting Cleveland again in 2018 have grown louder. And it’s not just idle speculation from pundits — reliable reporters like Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical have said the Cavs aren’t just assuming LeBron will remain in Cleveland beyond his current deal, and that a move to an L.A. team is “very much in play.”

It may be time for the Cavs to start worrying, but it’s not time for them to start panicking. Forcing win-now moves to appease LeBron could backfire, as they did during his first stint in Cleveland. By the time James left the Cavs in 2010, the team’s roster was stocked with overpaid, underperforming veterans, leaving little flexibility to acquire real help.

While it may seem like the Cavs are nearing that territory this time around too, Irving and Love are far more effective than any player on the 2009/10 roster was, and none of the team’s current contracts is nearly as bad as Shaquille O’Neal‘s (a 38-year-old Shaq earned $20MM in ’09/10, when the cap was $57.7MM).

Still, it won’t be easy for the Cavs to strike the right balance this offseason — their goal is to add immediate help to give LeBron a chance to knock off the Warriors next summer, without taking on the sort of long-term commitments that will compromise their ability to be flexible in two or three years. And, oh yeah, Gilbert probably wouldn’t mind reducing his tax bill a little going forward.

Good luck to the next Cavs’ next head of basketball operations, who figures to have one of the toughest jobs in the NBA.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Cavaliers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

LeBron James ($33,285,709)
Kevin Love ($22,642,350)
Kyrie Irving ($18,868,626)
Tristan Thompson ($16,400,000)
J.R. Smith ($13,760,000)
Iman Shumpert ($10,337,079)
Channing Frye ($7,420,912)
Richard Jefferson ($2,500,000)
Kay Felder ($456,529) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $125,671,205

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Edy Tavares ($1,471,382)
Kay Felder ($856,082) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $2,327,464

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Kyle Korver ($9,954,930)
Dahntay Jones ($1,471,382)
James Jones ($1,471,382)
Deron Williams ($1,471,382)
Derrick Williams ($1,471,382)
Total: $15,840,458

Trade Exceptions

Mike Dunleavy TPE ($4,837,500) — Expires 1/17/18
Mo Williams TPE ($2,194,500) — Expires 1/7/18
Sasha Kaun TPE ($1,333,420) — Expires 7/15/17
Chris Andersen TPE ($980,431) — Expires 2/13/18

Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: –$29,933,665

The Cavaliers’ eight guaranteed contracts, plus four cap charges for empty roster spots, bring the total team salary to $128,933,665. Considering the luxury tax line is currently projected to be around $119MM, the Cavs have virtually no way to get below the cap this summer unless they gut their roster, and will likely end up well into the tax again.

Footnotes:

Felder’s salary won’t become fully guaranteed until January 10.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2017 NBA Offseason Previews By Team

June 22nd, 2017 at 4:12pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA offseason is officially in full swing, and over the last several weeks, Hoops Rumors has been previewing this summer’s roster moves and decisions for each of the league’s 30 teams, asking – and attempting to answer – five key questions for every club.

Our offseason previews of this year’s NBA Finals combatants, the Warriors and Cavaliers, will be published sometime after the draft — while it’s possible both teams will be involved tonight, neither club currently has a draft pick, so their major moves are more likely to come in July.

Our previews for the NBA’s other 28 teams are below:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

Central Division

Southeast Division

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest Division

Pacific Division

Southwest Division

Five Key Offseason Questions: Charlotte Hornets

June 22nd, 2017 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

The Hornets continued to yo-yo back and forth under Steve Clifford‘s watch in 2016/17. Since Clifford took the reins as the team’s head coach four years ago, Charlotte has posted a pair of strong seasons, winning 43 games in Clifford’s first year and 48 in 2015/16. The Hornets have followed those impressive showings with disappointing ones, however, winning just 33 games in 2014/15 and 36 last season.

The franchise likely expects to rebound once again in 2017/18, having kicked off the offseason by acquiring eight-time All-Star Dwight Howard. While a bounce-back season is possible, there are several questions the Hornets will need to address this offseason in order to return to playoff contention. Let’s dive in…

1. Was Dwight Howard a worthwhile investment?

In the wake of this week’s trade for Howard, Clifford expressed optimism about the veteran center’s ability to regain his All-Star form. Clifford was an assistant in Orlando and then in Los Angeles when Howard was in his prime with the Magic and Lakers, so he knows him as well as anyone.

Expecting Howard to become an All-Star again may be aiming a little too high, but it’s not as if the 31-year-old was ineffective for Atlanta last season. He comfortably averaged a double-double – as he has every year since entering the league – with 13.5 PPG and 12.7 RPG, and his .633 FG% was a career best.

The Hornets also didn’t give up much to acquire Howard and to move up 10 spots in the second round of the draft, parting with Miles Plumlee and his pricey contract, plus Marco Belinelli. Belinelli is a solid, affordable rotation piece for any team, but he only has one year left on his contract, so moving him isn’t a long-term blow for Charlotte.

While it remains to be seen whether Howard can move the needle at all for the Hornets, the price to land him wasn’t exorbitant by any means, so a roll of the dice makes sense.

2. Will the Hornets be active in free agency at all?

One factor that made it easier for the Hornets to add more than $4MM in salary to their 2017/18 cap in the Howard swap was the team’s lack of projected cap room. The addition of Howard – along with the NBA’s new cap projection of $99MM – seals the deal on Charlotte being an over-the-cap team. The Hornets already have $106.5MM+ in guaranteed salaries on their books, and that’s without taking into account their first-round pick, their free agents, or Ramon Sessions‘ team option.

With no cap room to spend, the Hornets could use their mid-level exception to add a free agent or two, but the MLE is projected to start at about $8.4MM this year. The tax line is expected to come in at about $119MM, so Charlotte will have to be careful about using its entire MLE — doing so will bring the team dangerously close to going into luxury tax territory.

Without much spending power at their disposal, the Hornets figure to avoid bidding on free agents in the top two or three tiers, focusing instead on smaller pieces who could help add depth to their bench.

3. Are more trades coming?

Since free agency isn’t a real option for the Hornets to add an impact player, it’s possible that the team could return to the trade market. The team will have five players earning over $12.5MM in 2017/18, and that list doesn’t even include star point guard Kemba Walker ($12MM), so there is no shortage of contracts that could be moved to accommodate a deal.

Unfortunately for Charlotte, most of the team’s highest-paid players, such as Nicolas Batum ($22.4MM), Marvin Williams ($13.17MM), and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($13MM) aren’t exactly coming off outstanding years, and won’t have a ton of trade value. Those three players have overlapping skill sets, so if Charlotte could move one and perhaps pick up some backcourt help, it would make sense to do so.

The Hornets may also be able to spare a frontcourt piece if they look to deal, though it’s not clear yet how those minutes will be divided with Howard, Cody Zeller, and Frank Kaminsky all in the mix. Those three players should be able to coexist, but things could get more crowded up front if Charlotte uses its No. 11 overall pick on a big man such as Zach Collins, which would increase the odds of a trade.

4. What should the Hornets do with the 11th overall pick?

The general consensus leading up to the draft was that there was a group of 10 players atop most draft boards, with the Hornets unlikely to land one of those players at No. 11. However, in recent days, a number of rising prospects have snuck into the top 10 in various experts’ mock drafts, opening the door for an intriguing prospect to fall to the Hornets.

At ESPN, for instance, Chad Ford has Malik Monk slipping to the Hornets at No. 11. Monk is a better shooter than Donovan Mitchell and a better athlete than Luke Kennard, two other guards Charlotte figures to consider at No. 11 if they’re available. Meanwhile, Jonathan Givony’s latest mock for DraftExpress.com has French point guard Frank Ntilikina falling out of the top 10 and all the way to No. 15. If Ntilikina is available at No. 11, I expect the Hornets would seriously consider him.

5. Who will back up Kemba Walker?

Like the Wizards with John Wall, the Hornets had a hard time identifying a reliable backup for the best player on their roster last season. Ramon Sessions looked like a respectable choice, but he struggled for the Hornets, making just 38.0% of his field goals and averaging a career-low 6.2 PPG. I’d be very surprised if Charlotte exercises its $6.27MM club option on him.

The draft could actually provide the Hornets with its most logical path to a backup point guard, but guys like Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr. are good bets to be off the board, and may not be ready to take on a No. 2 role behind Walker anyway. Monk and Mitchell can handle the ball, but they aren’t traditional point guards, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be available either.

While a trade for a veteran backup is possible, the Hornets could save their assets by pursuing a free agent like Shaun Livingston or Darren Collison — as long as they don’t get too expensive. As noted above, Charlotte doesn’t have a whole lot of flexibility to spend, so anything above an annual salary of about $5-6MM may be out of the team’s price range.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Hornets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Dwight Howard ($23,500,000)
Nicolas Batum ($22,434,783)
Marvin Williams ($13,168,750)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($13,000,000)
Cody Zeller ($12,584,270)
Kemba Walker ($12,000,000)
Jeremy Lamb ($7,000,000)
Frank Kaminsky ($2,847,600)
Total: $106,535,403

Player Options

None

Team Options

Ramon Sessions ($6,270,000)
Total: $6,270,000

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Johnny O’Bryant ($1,524,305)¹
Briante Weber ($1,471,382)²
Treveon Graham ($1,312,611)
Total: $4,308,298

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

No. 11 overall pick ($2,904,480)
Brian Roberts ($1,471,382)
Christian Wood ($1,471,382)
Total: $5,847,244

Trade Exceptions

Troy Daniels TPE ($1,666,470) — Expires 7/12/17

Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: –$12,886,728

The Hornets’ guaranteed salaries, plus cap holds for their first-round pick and three empty roster spots, total $111,886,728, putting the team well over the cap. So, barring a significant change in direction, Charlotte is unlikely to dip below the cap this summer.

Footnotes:

O’Bryant’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Weber’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Boston Celtics

June 22nd, 2017 at 9:56am CST by Luke Adams

Not every Celtic fan is in love with Danny Ainge‘s patient, meticulous approach to stockpiling assets and building the team’s roster, but that strategy began to pay major dividends in 2017. The Celtics made a strong second-half push to nab the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, then took advantage of their pick swap with the Nets and some lottery luck to grab the No. 1 pick in the draft as well.

Of course, each of those accomplishments comes with a caveat. Despite their spot atop the Eastern Conference, the Celtics didn’t come anywhere close to knocking off the Cavaliers in the Conference Finals, and will need to add another impact player to their roster to help close that gap. As for the No. 1 overall pick, Boston became the first team in recent NBA history to trade that top selection in advance of the draft, sending it to Philadelphia for this year’s No. 3 pick and a future first-rounder.

Even after a 53-win season and a pair of playoff series victories, Ainge continues to turn current present-day assets into future pieces. Will that approach change at all this summer?

Here are five key questions facing the Celtics as the offseason begins:

1. What will the Celtics do with the third overall pick?

When the Celtics first completed their trade with the Sixers earlier in the week, there seemed to be two schools of thought for what Boston had in mind for its next move — the team would either select Kansas forward Josh Jackson, or use its newly-acquired picks in a trade for a star.

Several days later, it’s not clear that the Celtics will take either route. If the club keeps its pick, there’s no guarantee that Jackson will be the selection — many experts believe Boston may be leaning toward Jayson Tatum instead, and Jonathan Isaac has even been mentioned as a possibility. There have also been reports suggesting that the Celtics could trade down again, perhaps with an eye on a player like Dennis Smith Jr.

The Celtics are sitting in a great spot, and at this point there’s no real wrong answer for the club — whatever happens, Boston should come out of draft night with either a young potential star or a player who is already a star.

2. Is this the right time for the Celtics to cash in some trade chips?

Several teams are reportedly interested in moving into the top four in an effort to land Jackson, making the Celtics an ideal trade partner — there’s no guarantee Jackson would be available at No. 4, but with Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball considered strong favorites to be the first two picks, the No. 3 pick may be the spot for the former Jayhawk.

The Bulls and Knicks are said to have legit interest in Jackson, and each of those teams has been exploring trade scenarios involving its stars — Jimmy Butler in Chicago and Kristaps Porzingis in New York. Either player would be a terrific fit in Boston, though Porzingis, in particular, would be a perfect addition for the C’s. He’d be capable of providing the sort of rim protecting the club has been missing, without compromising short-term cap flexibility.

Still, if Ainge perceives the asking price for those players to be too high, he’s under no real pressure to make a move. Pundits and fans may be anxious for the Celtics to push the Cavs in 2017/18, but Ainge certainly recognizes that he has the team well-positioned for the next five or 10 years — not just the next two or three. There’s no urgency to go all-in within the next couple years, particularly with LeBron James not yet showing any signs of slowing down.

There are potential moves the Celtics could make that would improve the current roster without compromising the team’s ability to contend for the next decade, but striking a balance between those two goals will be the key.

3. What can the Celtics do in free agency?

Historically, the Celtics haven’t frequently landed impact players in free agency, but that changed last summer when the team poached Al Horford, one of the top veterans on the market, from Atlanta. A year later, Boston may try to repeat that feat, having been consistently linked to pending free agents like Gordon Hayward and Blake Griffin.

Creating enough cap room for a maximum salary offer to a player such as Hayward or Griffin will require at least one or two additional roster moves, but that shouldn’t be a significant roadblock if the Celtics are able to get a commitment from a star free agent.

Given Griffin’s injury history and the fact that he’s not an elite rim protector, Hayward looks to me like the better fit in Boston. However, if the Celtics end up landing a forward like Paul George or Jimmy Butler around the time of the draft, it’s possible they won’t pursue Hayward quite so aggressively. And even if they do go after Hayward and/or Griffin, the Celtics have no assurances — both players will be coveted by many potential suitors, and could earn more money by re-signing with their own respective 51-win teams.

4. Will 2016’s first-rounders arrive stateside for 2017/18?

When considering the Celtics’ collection of assets, their current players and future draft picks generally get most of the attention, but the team’s draft-and-stash prospects shouldn’t be overlooked. Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic, last year’s 16th and 23rd overall picks, respectively, had very strong seasons overseas, and appear capable of being long-term pieces for the Celtics, assuming they’re not traded.

Both Yabusele and Zizic reportedly have interest in joining the C’s for the 2017/18 season, so Boston will have to decide whether the time is right to bring them over. Neither player will be expensive, but even their modest cap hits could compromise the Celtics’ ability to offer a maximum salary contract to a free agent, and if Boston doesn’t believe the youngsters are ready to contribute right away, it might make more sense to wait another year to start the clock on their four-year rookie contracts.

I still expect we’ll see at least one – and perhaps both – of those two draft-and-stash prospects arrive in Boston this year, but the decision is a complicated one and will require an agreement from both sides.

5. Which rotation players are keepers?

Outside of Isaiah Thomas, an MVP candidate in 2016/17, and perhaps Al Horford, the Celtics don’t have any All-Stars on their current roster. The team should be looking to increase its star power, either in the form of a current star or a young player with the potential to become one. But in order to have a shot at a great player or two, Boston may have to determine which of its “good” players are expendable.

For instance, Kelly Olynyk, a reliable piece of Boston’s frontcourt last season, is eligible for restricted free agency. If the Celtics intend to pursue an elite free agent, there’s a good chance they’ll have to renounce Olynyk’s $7.7MM+ cap hold to create the necessary room.

If the Celtics go the trade route to land a star, some combination of Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier would likely be headed in the other direction. Based on their current ability to contribute, their future potential, and their contract situations, which of those players will Boston view as most expendable?

I suspect that out of that group, the Celtics will prioritize keeping Brown. But if C’s get deep into trade talks with the Bulls, Pacers, Knicks, or another team, and the inclusion of Brown is a sticking point for that club, Ainge will have a tough decision to make.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Celtics financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Al Horford ($27,734,405)
Avery Bradley ($8,808,989)
Jae Crowder ($6,796,117)
Isaiah Thomas ($6,261,395)
Jaylen Brown ($4,956,480)
Marcus Smart ($4,538,020)
Terry Rozier ($1,988,520)
Demetrius Jackson ($650,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $61,733,926

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Tyler Zeller ($8,000,000)²
Jordan Mickey ($1,471,382)³
Demetrius Jackson ($734,750) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $10,206,132

Restricted Free Agents

Kelly Olynyk ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $7,735,033 cap hold)
Total: $7,735,033

Cap Holds

Amir Johnson ($15,600,000)
Jonas Jerebko ($9,500,000)
No. 3 overall pick ($5,645,400)
James Young ($2,803,507)
Guerschon Yabusele ($2,247,480)
Ante Zizic ($1,645,200)
Gerald Green ($1,471,382)
Total: $40,293,809

Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $26,177,629

For our max cap room calculation, we assumed the C’s will keep their seven guaranteed contracts plus Jackson (whose non-guaranteed portion is cheaper than an empty roster slot), and accounted for cap holds for the No. 1 pick, Yabusele, Zizic, and an empty roster spot. That works out to $72,822,371, which doesn’t quite leave enough room for a max salary for someone like Gordon Hayward. However, Boston could create more cap space by stashing Yabusele and/or Zizic for another year, or by making a trade.

Footnotes:

Jackson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.
Zeller’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 2.
Mickey’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after either July 1 or July 15 (conflicting information available).

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New Orleans Pelicans

June 20th, 2017 at 10:43am CST by Dana Gauruder

The New Orleans Pelicans had the appearance of a budding powerhouse two seasons ago. Carried by superstar big man Anthony Davis, they made the playoffs in 2015 with a young core of players. Later that spring, they fired Monty Williams and replaced him with Warriors assistant and offensive guru Alvin Gentry with the expectation of making deep playoff runs.

Heading into the summer of 2017, the Pelicans are at a crossroads. A combination of injuries, questionable roster decisions, and underperforming players have led to two consecutive losing seasons.

The surprising and bold move to acquire DeMarcus Cousins at the trade deadline didn’t pay immediate dividends. But the combination of Cousins and Davis makes the Pelicans one of the most intriguing teams in the league.

Here’s a look at the major questions confronting the club this offseason:

1. Can the Pelicans sign unrestricted free agent Jrue Holiday?

The Pelicans have made it clear they want to re-sign Holiday, who has been highly productive when he’s been able to stay out of the trainer’s room. Holiday hasn’t played more than 67 games in the past four seasons, but averaged 15.4 PPG and 7.3 APG in 2016/17.

All indications suggest the Pelicans believe Holiday is the point guard who can keep both Davis and Cousins happy in the Twin Towers attack.

The Pelicans hold Holiday’s Bird rights, allowing them to offer more money and years than any other club. They’ll still have stiff competition for his services. It has been reported that the Mavericks covet Holiday and will make him a substantial offer, and other suitors figure to be in the mix as well.

There are several other starter-level floor leaders on the market if Holiday decides to go elsewhere. Losing Holiday wouldn’t necessarily be disastrous, but the Pelicans would prefer to have continuity at that all-important spot.

2. What type of approach will GM Dell Demps take this offseason?

Demps will be in a win-at-all-costs mode. There was plenty of speculation that Demps and Gentry would lose their jobs after a second consecutive disappointing season. The Cousins trade, which many NBA experts viewed as a coup for Demps and the Pelicans, bought the regime a little more time.

While Demps and Gentry were given a reprieve by owner Tom Benson, their status remains tenuous. They can’t afford another slow start, so the pieces have to be in place to get things turned around quickly.

Demps figures to actively pursue free agents and trades for proven players who can make an immediate impact.

3. Are the Pelicans truly committed to making the Davis-Cousins combination work, or will one of them be dealt?

Gentry believes he can maximize Davis’ and Cousins’ talents with the benefit of a training camp. Davis is locked up contractually at least through the summer of 2020, when he can exercise his player option. Cousins is an entirely different case.

The former King is entering his walk year and has yet to tip his hand on whether he plans to stay in New Orleans long-term. The Pelicans will certainly have to max out Cousins to keep him and that would result in three gargantuan contracts on their books if they re-sign Holiday too.

If the Pelicans aren’t in playoff contention by midseason, a blockbuster deal could be necessary at the trade deadline. It wouldn’t even be a total shock if it happens this offseason should Cousins’ camp make it clear that he plans to go elsewhere in free agency.

The caveat is that Demps, being on the hot seat, would have to get some starters as well as draft picks in return. If the Celtics, for example, wanted Cousins now, they’d have to give players who could jump into the rotation (Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, etc.) along with a high draft pick or two.

4. Other than a point guard, what is the Pelicans’ biggest need?

New Orleans finished 19th in three-point percentage last season and must improve that ranking going forward. The Pelicans need superior spot-up shooters in order to create space for their two big men.

It would help if Quincy Pondexter could return to good health after having his last two seasons wiped out by knee injuries. Pondexter is a solid three-point threat, but it’s wishful thinking to expect much from him after being out for so long.

Instead, the Pelicans will likely have to use their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions (assuming they retain Holiday) to get a shooter or two on the open market. They’ll obviously be targeting shooting guards and small forwards, with perimeter threats like C.J. Miles and Jodie Meeks as logical targets.

5. The Pelicans traded away their first-round pick in the Cousins deal. Should they make any attempt to move into the first round?

It seems unlikely that the Pelicans will do much on draft day. They could get involved in a three-way deal in which they would acquire a rotation player. It’s also conceivable, though quite unlikely, that they could flip Cousins if they get an overwhelming offer that includes a likely future lottery pick and multiple established players.

Otherwise, New Orleans will be content to select a developmental player in the second round (No. 40 overall pick) and get down to more important business when the free-agent bell rings on July 1st.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pelicans financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Anthony Davis ($23,775,506)
DeMarcus Cousins ($18,063,850)
Solomon Hill ($12,236,535)
Omer Asik ($10,595,505)
E’Twaun Moore ($8,445,024)
Alexis Ajinca ($4,961,798)
Quincy Pondexter ($3,853,931)
Tim Frazier ($2,000,000)
Cheick Diallo ($1,312,611)
Total: $85,244,760

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Jordan Crawford ($1,709,538)¹
Axel Toupane ($1,471,382)
Quinn Cook ($1,312,611)²
Total: $4,493,531

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Jrue Holiday ($16,929,777)
Dante Cunningham ($5,658,675) — Player option declined
Donatas Motiejunas ($1,471,382)
Total: $24,059,834

Trade Exceptions

Buddy Hield TPE ($3,517,200) — Expires 2/20/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $13,308,395

Adding three cap charges for empty roster spots to New Orleans’ nine guaranteed contracts results in a total team salary of $87,691,605. The cap space created in that scenario is minimal, so the Pelicans are more likely to retain one or two of their players on non-guaranteed contracts and to keep Holiday’s cap hold on the books as they attempt to re-sign him. That would mean staying over the cap.

Footnotes:

Crawford’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Cook’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($25,000) after July 5. Guarantee increases to $100,000 after July 25.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Phoenix Suns

June 19th, 2017 at 10:48pm CST by Arthur Hill

The Suns showed only modest improvement in their first full season under coach Earl Watson, going from 23 wins to 24. There are reasons to hope for a brighter future, but the Phoenix front office has a lot of work to do on a roster stocked with a combination of very young and very old players, with little in between.

Here are five key questions facing the Suns as that project begins:

1. Anybody need an extra guard?

Devin Booker‘s path to stardom was shorter than anyone expected, and he punctuated his rise to the NBA elite with a 70-point barrage at Boston in March. The second-year guard has been a starter since early in his rookie season and led the Suns in scoring this year at 22.1 points per game. However, his performance has made Brandon Knight expandable, and Knight hasn’t handled it well. He didn’t appear in a single game after the All-Star break and told the team when asked to play in March that back spasms were preventing him from taking the court.

Knight still has three seasons and nearly $43.9MM on a contract he signed in 2015 before the Suns realized what they had in Booker. It won’t be easy to unload a deal of that size, especially given Knight’s reduced production last year. On the other hand, he’s only 25 and has a history of being an explosive scorer, so there may be takers if the Suns don’t expect much in return. A strong first season from Tyler Ulis makes Knight even more expendable.

Another option is dealing Eric Bledsoe, a productive but injury-prone talent. Bledsoe, 27, will be the Suns’ highest-paid player next season ($14.5MM) and in 2018/19 ($15MM) and would probably fetch a nice collection of assets to help with the team’s youth movement.

2. Are the Suns happy with the fourth pick?

This weekend’s draft shakeup may not be the only major move in the top five. According to ESPN’s Chad Ford, the Suns have talked to the Lakers and Celtics about moving up to draft UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball or Kansas forward Josh Jackson (though Phoenix radio host John Gambadoro said there haven’t been talks between the Suns and Celtics about the No. 3 pick).

If the Suns don’t trade up and Ball and Jackson don’t slip to No. 4, they can either field offers from teams that want De’Aaron Fox or just take Jayson Tatum or Jonathan Isaac. Tatum is a ready-made scorer who could fill the small forward position for the next decade. Isaac has steadily risen up draft boards and has the size and skill to handle either forward position.

3. What about the two power forwards the Suns drafted last year?

The Suns swung a deal with Sacramento in 2016 to get a second lottery pick, which brought both Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender to Phoenix. Chriss had the greater impact in his rookie year, appearing in all 82 games, starting 75, and averaging 9.2 points per night. Bender faced a tougher transition, averaging just 13.3 minutes and 3.4 points per game, and missing a chunk of the season with an ankle injury.

Phoenix has the luxury of being patient with both players, but drafting a forward this year could impact playing time, especially for Bender, and make at least one of them expendable somewhere down the road.

4. What are all these old guys doing here?

The Suns posted the worst record in the Western Conference and the second-worst mark in the entire NBA. That’s not a situation in which minutes and valuable cap room should be devoted to two 34-year-olds in Tyson Chandler and Leandro Barbosa and a 31-year-old Jared Dudley. Ronnie Price, 33, also spent some time on the roster.

Chandler, who will turn 35 before next season starts, would seem much more at home on a contender. However, he still has a hefty contract that pays him $13MM next year and $13.585MM in 2018/19, making teams reluctant to deal for him. Chandler says he enjoys being a mentor for young players, but he’s still seeing plenty of playing time, appearing in 47 games this season and averaging nearly 28 minutes per night.

Barbosa, who chose the Suns in free agency last summer, is due to make $4MM next season, but only $500K is guaranteed before July 3rd, so his days in Phoenix may be numbered. Dudley, another 2016 free agent signing, is under contract for more than $19.5MM over the next two seasons.

5. How long before the Suns contend again?

The best strategy for Phoenix is to keep adding talent through the draft. Booker is a legitimate building block, and Chriss appears to be as well. Alex Len and Alan Williams, both 24, are two free agent big men who could be retained without breaking the bank.

The Suns only have about $7MM in available cap room, although that number could rise closer to $25MM if they part ways with Barbosa and Len. If Phoenix does try to play the free agent market this summer, it should skip the over-30 demographic and concentrate on players more in line with its youth movement.

There’s no need to rush things. The top seven teams in the West look like long-term playoff regulars, and the ones that contended for the eighth spot are all further along in development than Phoenix. If the Suns continue to add young talent, the playoffs could be a realistic goal by the end of the decade.

Phoenix is still paying for its past mistakes. Management apparently believed the team was closer to contention than it really was and overpaid for Knight, Chandler, Dudley and Barbosa. Phoenix needs to cut loose as many of those contracts as possible this summer and fully commit to rebuilding.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Suns financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Eric Bledsoe ($14,500,000)
Brandon Knight ($13,618,750)
Tyson Chandler ($13,000,000)
Jared Dudley ($10,000,000)
Dragan Bender ($4,468,800)
T.J. Warren ($3,152,931)
Marquese Chriss ($3,073,800)
Devin Booker ($2,319,360)
Tyler Ulis ($1,312,611)
Leandro Barbosa ($500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $65,946,252

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Leandro Barbosa ($3,500,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Elijah Millsap ($1,524,305)
Derrick Jones ($1,312,611)
Total: $6,336,916

Restricted Free Agents

Alex Len ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $12,059,053 cap hold)
Alan Williams ($1,671,382 qualifying offer / $1,671,382 cap hold)
Total: $13,730,435

Cap Holds

No. 4 overall pick ($5,090,040)
Ronnie Price ($1,471,382)
Total: $6,561,422

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $28,332,478

The Suns have nine players on fully guaranteed contracts. If they were to waive their non-guaranteed players and renounce all their free agents, they’d also have to account for cap holds for their first-round pick and two empty roster spots, creating a total team salary of $72,667,522. That would be enough room to make a play for a maximum-salary restricted free agent, but not enough to fit a max contract for a veteran with seven or more years of NBA experience.

Footnotes:

Barbosa’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 3

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Dallas Mavericks

June 19th, 2017 at 9:26am CST by Luke Adams

Few NBA franchises have been more successful in the 21st century than the Mavericks, who finished at .500 or better for 16 consecutive seasons, earning 15 playoff berths, 13 postseason series wins, and a championship during that stretch.

However, the 2016/17 campaign was a disappointment, as the Mavs missed the playoffs by a wide margin, finishing with a 33-49 record. It looks like it’s time for a rebuild in Dallas, but that decision is complicated by the fact that longtime star Dirk Nowitzki likely only has another year or two left in him. After years of building contending rosters and pursuing win-now upgrades, will the Mavs be willing to patiently retool their roster as Nowitzki’s career winds down?

Here are five key questions facing the Mavs as the offseason begins:

1. Will the Mavs ask Dirk Nowitzki to take a pay cut?

A year ago, the Mavericks voluntarily gave Nowitzki more money that the two sides had initially agreed upon, bumping the total value of his two-year contract from $40MM up to $50MM, since it didn’t hamper the team’s ability to make other moves. A year later, Dallas may ask Nowitzki to return that favor.

The German big man, who celebrates his 39th birthday on Monday, is coming off his least productive season since his rookie year, having seen his averages slip to 14.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and a .437 FG%. He also missed 28 games due to injuries. Now, the Mavs have to decide whether or not to exercise a team option worth $25MM for 2017/18.

Exercising that team option would leave the Mavs without any cap room, and based on the players they’ve been linked to in various reports and rumors, it doesn’t sound as if they’re necessarily planning on operating as an over-the-cap team. That suggests Dallas may decline Nowitzki’s option and re-sign him at a lesser rate. The amount of the pay cut that Dirk is willing to take could dictate how much spending flexibility the Mavs have this summer.

2. How big will Nerlens Noel‘s new contract be?

Along with Nowitzki, Noel is the other Maverick without a guaranteed contract for 2017/18 who will nonetheless take up a significant chunk of cap room. Having acquired the former sixth overall pick at the deadline, the Mavs appear to regard Noel as their center of the future, and appear to have every intention of retaining him.

Noel, who is eligible for restricted free agency, currently has a cap hold just shy of $11MM. Assuming he intends to re-sign with the Mavs, the team can keep that somewhat modest figure on its books until it uses up the rest of its cap room, and then can go over the cap to lock up Noel. However, if another suitor swoops in with an aggressive offer sheet for Noel, perhaps one worth the max, Dallas’ flexibility may be compromised.

However Noel’s free agency plays out, I don’t expect the Mavs to let him get away, but it will be interesting to see what his new contract looks like. Dallas already has Harrison Barnes on a maximum salary deal, and neither he nor Noel have ever received serious All-Star consideration. With Wesley Matthews also on a sizable contract, the Mavs will have to be careful about paying too many solid starters like they’re franchise players.

3. Will Wesley Matthews be shopped in trade talks?

One way to make a big deal for Noel more palatable would be to move Matthews in a trade that cuts costs. However, Matthews’ trade value isn’t high.

The former Blazer will earn nearly $17.9MM in 2017/18, with an $18.6MM+ player option for the following year. The Portland version of Matthews would have been worth that sort of money, but the Dallas version has seen his shooting numbers decline substantially. A 44.3% shooter (39.3% on three-pointers) before joining the Mavs, Matthews has made just 39.0% of his field goals and 36.2% of his threes over the last two years.

With Barnes now doing many of the things the Mavs initially expected of Matthews, the Marquette product has become more expendable. Dallas wouldn’t get a ton in return for Matthews in a trade, but even just getting out from under his salary would create a new series of possibilities for the club, so it’s worth considering.

4. Who will play point guard for the Mavs?

For the last several years, the Mavs have been searching for long-term answers at the point guard and center positions. With Noel expected to remain in Dallas, the club has a solid option at center. So, what about a point guard?

The free agent market offers plenty of point guard options this summer, and by the sounds of it, the Mavs are exploring the possibility of splashing in that end of the pool. A recent report suggested that the team is viewed as a serious candidate to sign Jrue Holiday, along with his brother Justin Holiday. Signing Jrue would likely require at least $20MM in cap room, so the Mavs’ ability to make a serious play for him – or another point guard of his caliber – may hinge on what happens with Nowitzki, Noel, and Matthews.

Dallas could also delve into the trade market, with another recent report indicating that Ricky Rubio is one trade candidate on the club’s radar. Rubio may be viewed as an underwhelming solution to the Mavs’ point guard problem, but if he continues to play like he did down the stretch in 2016/17, he’d be a worthwhile investment — after the All-Star break, Rubio averaged an impressive 16.0 PPG and 10.5 APG with a .420/.353/.917 shooting line. The Timberwolves aren’t exactly loaded with three-point shooters, so a deal involving Matthews might make some sense for both sides.

5. What will the Mavs do with their lottery pick?

Of course, even if the Mavs don’t land a veteran point guard via trade or free agency, they’re in a great spot to add a prospect at the position. This year’s draft class is heavy on promising point guards, and while the No. 9 pick won’t be high enough to land Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, or De’Aaron Fox, the Mavs may be in position to nab Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr.

The Knicks, with the No. 8 pick, are a good bet to take one of those two players off the board before Dallas is on the clock, but I’d expect at least one of them to be available. We don’t know for sure that the Mavs are high on both Ntilikina and Smith, and it’s possible the club would rather go in another direction with that pick, such as selecting Lauri Markkanen as Nowitzki’s eventual replacement. But drafting a young point guard and perhaps acquiring a stop-gap veteran (such as Rubio or a second- or third-tier free agent) would be a great way to address a position that has given the Mavs trouble in recent years.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Mavericks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Harrison Barnes ($23,112,004)
Wesley Matthews ($17,884,176)
Dwight Powell ($9,003,125)
J.J. Barea ($3,903,900)
Seth Curry ($3,028,410)
Devin Harris ($1,339,662) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.
A.J. Hammons ($1,312,611)
Gal Mekel ($315,758) — Waived via stretch provision.
Total: $59,899,646

Player Options

None

Team Options

Dirk Nowitzki ($25,000,000)
DeAndre Liggins ($1,577,230)¹
Yogi Ferrell ($1,312,611)
Total: $27,889,841

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Devin Harris ($3,062,884) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.
Salah Mejri ($1,471,382)²
Nicolas Brussino ($1,312,611)³
Dorian Finney-Smith ($1,312,611)⁴
Jarrod Uthoff ($1,312,611)⁵
Total: $8,472,099

Restricted Free Agents

Nerlens Noel ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $10,961,225 cap hold)
Total: $10,961,225

Cap Holds

No. 9 overall pick ($2,681,900)
Total: $2,681,900

Trade Exceptions

Andrew Bogut TPE ($6,642,537) — Expires 2/23/18
Justin Anderson TPE ($1,514,160) — Expires 2/23/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $34,340,379

The Mavericks have six fully guaranteed contracts on their books. Adding cap charges for their first-round pick and five empty roster spots brings their total team salary to $66,659,621. That would create enough flexibility to pursue a maximum salary player, but it also doesn’t account for players like Noel or Nowitzki, who will almost certainly be back. So, barring cost-cutting trades, Dallas figures to have less cap room than that when July begins.

Footnotes:

Merji’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 12.
Liggins’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($26,773) after June 24 if team option is exercised.
Brussino’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.
Finney-Smith’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after July 6.
Uthoff’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($200,000) after July 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New York Knicks

June 18th, 2017 at 9:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The Knicks aggressively pursued win-now roster upgrades in the summer of 2016, acquiring Derrick Rose in a trade with the Bulls and signing Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee a couple weeks later in free agency. Rose was so bullish on the new-look Knicks that he optimistically referred to them as a “super-team” alongside the Warriors last offseason, an assertion that looks even more misguided now than it did at the time.

Not only did the Knicks miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season, but the team actually won fewer games (31) than it did in 2015/16 (32). The 2016/17 campaign was filled with indignities for the storied franchise, ranging from Charles Oakley being ejected and banned from Madison Square Garden to Phil Jackson publicly criticizing his highest-paid player and top scorer, Carmelo Anthony.

With the offseason underway in New York, the Knicks will be looking to repair their image off the court in addition to finding ways to improve the product on the court. Here are five key questions facing the club:

1. What will happen with Carmelo Anthony?

Having tired of subtlety, Phil Jackson suggested outright at season’s end that Anthony, the face of the franchise for the last several years, might be better off with another team. He’s not necessarily wrong — the relationship between Anthony and the Knicks seems to have run its course, and if the club is prepared to acknowledge that a rebuild is necessary, it makes sense for Carmelo to pursue a championship elsewhere. Still, it’s the sort of comment rarely made publicly by a team executive, particularly since it could negatively impact his player’s trade value.

Despite the fact that he’s still a reliable scorer, Anthony’s value wasn’t overly high even before Jackson torpedoed it, since his contract is an onerous one, and his 15% trade kicker only makes his salary more difficult to move around. Carmelo also holds a no-trade clause, meaning that his future is ultimately in his own hands, but he appears to be increasingly open to a move, perhaps to a team like the Clippers or Cavaliers.

The Knicks are unlikely to receive too appealing a package in any Anthony deal, and trading with an over-the-cap team like L.A. and Cleveland would mean taking back a sizable chunk of salary to meet the CBA’s trade rules. But at this point, both sides could use a fresh start, and it would be somewhat surprising to see Carmelo still wearing a Knicks uniform next fall.

2. What about the Knicks’ other big contracts?

Anthony’s $26.24MM cap hit is easily the highest on the Knicks’ books for 2017/18, but the team also has two more players earning eight-digit salaries whose long-term futures in New York are uncertain.

Joakim Noah ($17.765MM in 2017/18, plus two more years) had a disastrous first year with the Knicks after signing a $72MM pact with the team. He struggled to produce during the first half of the season, battled injuries in the second half, and capped off the year by receiving a 20-game suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program. Noah has negative trade value, and now is not the time to stretch his contract to gain cap room, so the Knicks’ best bet is to hope he bounces back when he returns from his suspension in the fall and rebuilds his value.

Unlike Noah, Courtney Lee ($11.75MM in ’17/18, plus two more years) would have some value on the trade market as a three-and-D wing veteran who converted more than 40% of his long-distance attempts in 2016/17. New York won’t trade Lee just to trade him, but he made more sense as a complementary piece on a win-now roster than he does for the current iteration of the Knicks, so the club will likely consider moving him for the right offer in the coming weeks.

3. Is everything okay with Kristaps Porzingis?

With Anthony on the trade block and the Knicks apparently – and reluctantly – ready to embrace a rebuild, it seems logical that the team would be focused on keeping Porzingis happy. The former fourth overall pick, who is still just 21 years old, looks like a franchise cornerstone, and a player worth building around.

The Knicks’ dysfunction didn’t sit well with Porzingis though, prompting the Latvian big man to skip his exit meeting with the franchise and head back to his home country for the summer. The Knicks are extremely unlikely to trade Porzingis – or even to seriously consider it – but if he’s going to be a key piece of the franchise for the next five to 10 years, fence-mending may be required. The Knicks’ front office needs to prove that the Carmelo situation was an aberration, and not a preview of how the team will treat its stars going forward.

4. How will the Knicks address the point guard spot?

The 2016/17 season was Derrick Rose‘s best as a scorer since his All-Star days from 2009-12, but his three-point shot was worse than ever – in the rare instances he shot from deep – and he wasn’t a great facilitator during his first, and possibly only, season in New York. Rose’s agent has suggested his client wants to re-sign with the Knicks, but if he wants anything close to the $21MM+ he earned this past season, the team would probably be wise to move on.

Reports in recent months have suggested that there’s some support within the Knicks’ organization for pursuing a veteran free agent point guard, with Jrue Holiday among the players mentioned. But if the Knicks are serious about running the triangle in 2017/18, it’s not clear how much interest they’ll get from those top free agents. It may make more sense to draft a point guard prospect and teach that player the triangle from the get-go.

5. How will the Knicks use their lottery pick?

That brings us to the Knicks’ lottery pick, which landed at No. 8. This year’s draft class has a strong group of 10 to 12 players at the top, so New York should land a promising prospect, and there’s a good chance that prospect will be a point guard.

Depending on how the first seven picks play out, it’s possible that the Knicks will have their pick of Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, and Malik Monk at No. 8. Smith and Ntilikina are more traditional point guards, while Monk is a combo guard who can handle the ball, but is more of a scorer and shooter than a facilitator.

There’s no guarantee that Smith, Ntilikina, and Monk will all be available when the Knicks are on the clock, but at least one or two should be. New York would do well to walk away with any of those three players, adding a building block in the backcourt to pair with Porzingis for the long term.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Knicks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Carmelo Anthony ($26,243,760)
Joakim Noah ($17,765,000)
Courtney Lee ($11,747,890)
Lance Thomas ($6,655,325)
Kristaps Porzingis ($4,503,600)
Kyle O’Quinn ($4,087,500)
Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($3,025,035)
Willy Hernangomez ($1,435,750)
Total: $75,463,860

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Maurice Ndour ($1,312,611)¹
Marshall Plumlee ($1,312,611)²
Chasson Randle ($1,312,611)
Total: $3,937,833

Restricted Free Agents

Ron Baker ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
Total: $1,512,611

Cap Holds

Derrick Rose ($30,300,000)³
No. 8 overall pick ($3,501,120)
Justin Holiday ($1,471,382)
Sasha Vujacic ($1,471,382)
Total: $36,743,884

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $19,588,175

Adding the Knicks’ eight guaranteed salaries to cap holds for their first-round pick and three empty roster spots, the team’s salary totals $81,411,825. Even after waiving their three non-guaranteed players and renouncing free agents like Rose, Holiday, and Baker, that wouldn’t be nearly enough for a maximum salary contract, so the Knicks will have to get creative – or dump salary in a Carmelo trade – if they want to make a splash in free agency.

Footnotes:

Ndour’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Plumlee’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after June 30.
Rose’s cap hold is his maximum salary, based on a $101MM cap projection. If the salary cap is higher than $101MM, Rose’s cap hold would increase along with it, up to a maximum of $31,984,878.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.