Five Key Offseason Questions

Five Key Offseason Questions: Orlando Magic

June 17th, 2017 at 8:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

High lottery picks don’t always guarantee success. The Orlando Magic can attest to that. The Magic had a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts, starting in 2013, and failed to come away with a franchise player.

Last season, Orlando tried a different approach, packaging the No. 11 overall pick in a trade with the Thunder to acquire Serge Ibaka, who was entering his walk year. When their season fell apart once again, the Magic ended up dealing Ibaka to the Raptors. Orlando finished 29-53 during Frank Vogel’s first season as head coach with the franchise, a six-game slide from the 2015/16 campaign. Now under new management, the Magic will try to snap their streak of five consecutive losing seasons.

Here are five key questions for the Magic as they enter this offseason:

1. Who should they take with the No. 6 pick in the draft?

It’s generally believed that there’s a drop-off after the first five players come off the board on Thursday. Just the Magic’s luck, they have the sixth pick.

If Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, De’Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum are all gone by the time the Magic’s turn comes up — a pretty safe assumption — they’ll have to strike gold with a less-heralded prospect.

The team’s newly-hired decision-makers, President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman and GM John Hammond, have some interesting options and will probably settle on the one with the highest ceiling. Florida State forward Jonathan Isaac could be that guy. His length and ability to guard multiple positions would boost the team’s defense and he has the range to step out and make 3-pointers.

Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen and Kentucky’s Malik Monk would be safer options. Markkanen is a classic stretch four — he made 42% of his 3-point attempts during his lone college season. Monk, a shooting guard, could emerge as the No. 1 scoring option on a team that needs one.

2. Should the Magic offer extensions to Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton?

Payton’s numbers have steadily improved through his first three seasons. He averaged 12.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 6.5 APG with an above-average 17.25 PER this past season. But it would be surprising if Payton received a serious extension offer. Payton hasn’t convinced anyone that he can be the floor leader for a contending team and he’s a poor three-point shooter, a very big hole in his game. It’s awfully tough to give big money to a point guard who can’t shoot from outside, unless he’s an elite passer.

Gordon is a tougher call. His scoring totals jumped after Ibaka was dealt to Toronto and he was able to slide to his natural power forward position. He averaged 15.8 PPG in March and 19.0 PPG in April. Like Payton though, he’s not adept at shooting three-pointers and he needs to become a better rebounder. It’s likely the new regime will take a wait-and-see approach on Gordon, assuming they don’t deal him.

3. What is the best way for the new regime to upgrade the roster?

Make trades. The Magic won’t be able to acquire a top-level free agent. Not only do they lack the cap room (a max of about $15.7MM to spend), but quality players aren’t going to sign on with a franchise that has become a perennial loser, no matter how nice the Orlando weather is in the winter. The giant contract handed to Bismack Biyombo last season will limit any free agent spending to depth-related causes.

Gordon is the player most likely to be dealt, mainly because he’s a starter still working on his rookie deal. Ideally, Orlando would package him with one of their more onerous contracts such as Biyombo’s or D.J. Augustin‘s. Nikola Vucevic could draw some interest around the league — he’s a solid scorer and rebounder with a reasonable contract (two years, $25MM remaining).

The Magic need more versatile defenders and shooters. They were a woeful perimeter-shooting team last season.

4. What should the Magic do with their other picks?

Orlando has a pair of first-round rounders, with the No. 25 pick (courtesy of the Raptors) to go along with their lottery selection. They also have two high second-rounders (Nos. 33 and 35).

It’s a good bet that Weltman will trade at least one of these picks. Don’t be surprised if the Magic move the late first-rounder and one of the second-rounders to move up in the first round. Orlando has needs all over the board and could probably find another rotation piece with an extra pick in the top 20.

The Magic could also go the draft-and-stash route with at least one of the picks.

5. Should the Magic try to re-sign unrestricted free agent Jodie Meeks?

It depends on what they do with their lottery pick. If they select Monk, then there would be no need for Meeks with Evan Fournier and Monk at the shooting guard spot.

If they draft a forward, or perhaps even a point guard, then bringing back Meeks would make some sense. Meeks can deliver shooting off the bench and his injury history will probably limit his options in the open market. Meeks is a career 37.6% shooter from long range and made 40.9% of his three-point tries last season.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Magic financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Bismack Biyombo ($17,000,000)
Evan Fournier ($17,000,000)
Nikola Vucevic ($12,250,000)
Terrence Ross ($10,500,000)
D.J. Augustin ($7,250,000)
Aaron Gordon ($5,504,420)
Mario Hezonja ($4,078,320)
Elfrid Payton ($3,332,340)
C.J. Watson ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $77,915,080

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

C.J. Watson ($4,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Patricio Garino ($1,312,611)
Marcus Georges-Hunt ($1,312,611)
Stephen Zimmerman ($1,312,611)²
Total: $7,937,833

Restricted Free Agents

Damjan Rudez ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
Total: $1,724,305

Cap Holds

Jeff Green ($18,000,000)
Jodie Meeks ($12,426,000)
No. 6 overall pick ($4,186,320)
No. 25 overall pick ($1,516,200)
Total: $36,128,520

Trade Exceptions

Serge Ibaka TPE ($2,250,000) — Expires 2/14/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $15,751,170

Orlando’s eight guaranteed salaries, cap holds for two first-round picks, and cap charges for two empty roster spots total $85,248,830 in team salary. The Magic aren’t likely to waive all their non-guaranteed players, but they don’t have any free agents they badly needs to bring back, so renouncing those FAs and getting close to their maximum cap room is possible.

Footnotes:

Watson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
Zimmerman’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Denver Nuggets

June 16th, 2017 at 2:30pm CST by Luke Adams

After three straight seasons with win totals in the 30s, the Nuggets took a modest step forward in 2016/17, battling for a playoff spot in the Western Conference and ultimately falling just short of the postseason – and of .500 – at 40-42.

While the end result was somewhat disappointing, the Nuggets can view the season as an overall success, since it saw the emergence of a potential franchise player. Nikola Jokic, a second-round pick in 2014, entered Denver’s starting lineup for good on December 15, and from that point on, he averaged an eye-popping 19.2 PPG, 10.9 RPG, and 5.8 APG to go along with a shooting line of .587/.342/.825. The Joker is still only 22 years old, and looks like a tremendous building block for a Nuggets team that has lacked star power since trading Carmelo Anthony.

Still, while Jokic’s breakout season was encouraging, the team has several key questions to answer as the offseason gets underway. Here are five:

1. Will Danilo Gallinari be back?

Gallinari, a key piece in that aforementioned Carmelo trade, has been a Nugget since 2011, but will be eligible for unrestricted free agency this July after turning down his player option with the team. Gallinari has been one of the league’s more underrated scorers in recent years, and is coming off the best shooting season of his career (.447/.389/.902). The Nuggets also have more than enough cap flexibility to bring him back.

On the other hand, Gallinari has a lengthy history of injuries, having failed to play more than 63 games in a season since 2012/13. Furthermore, Denver has a crowded rotation at the forward position, with Kenneth Faried, Juan Hernangomez, Wilson Chandler, and Darrell Arthur among the players who would be vying with Gallinari for minutes at the three and four. If the Nuggets trade one or two of those forwards, re-signing Gallinari makes a little more sense, but it’s not hard to imagine him ending up elsewhere this summer.

2. How can the Nuggets acquire another star to pair with Jokic?

If Gallinari doesn’t return, the Nuggets could create more than $35MM in cap room, which would be enough to make a maximum salary contract offer to a free agent. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised then that Denver has been mentioned as one of the teams that Chris Paul intends to talk to if he explores leaving the Clippers this offseason.

Still, while newly-promoted president of basketball operations Tim Connelly says agents have told him their clients want to play with Jokic, Denver hasn’t historically been a top destination for elite free agents. The Nuggets made an unsuccessful push for Dwyane Wade last summer, and Connelly has talked about being wary of free agents using Denver for leverage. Jokic’s presence and a solid core makes the Nuggets a more appealing landing spot, but it’s still hard to believe that a player of Paul’s caliber would choose Denver over teams closer to contending or over more glamorous cities.

While it doesn’t hurt to go after a marquee free agent, the Nuggets may have more luck pursuing a top player via trade. The team holds all its future first-round picks and has a handful of young players of various appeal on cheap contracts, including Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Malik Beasley. Denver could put together a tantalizing trade package, but once again, the team would have to be careful about targeting a player who could depart in free agency in the near future. There’s probably no sense giving up several assets for Paul George if you’re concerned he’ll head to the Lakers in 2018.

3. How will the Nuggets address the point guard spot?

On paper, the Nuggets’ point guard duo of Mudiay and Jameer Nelson seems somewhat promising — the former seventh overall pick heading into his third year paired with the reliable veteran backup. However, Mudiay’s development in his first two NBA seasons has been slow, and Nelson will turn 36 years old during the 2017/18 season. For a team with an All-Star caliber center and solid performers on the wing, there’s a real risk that the point guard spot will be the lineup’s weak link.

The handling of Mudiay is perhaps the trickiest decision for the Nuggets going forward. He’s still only 21 years old, and the club certainly shouldn’t give up on him yet. But Denver is getting to the point in its rebuild where annual postseason contention is expected, and it’s not clear that Mudiay is capable of leading a playoff team.

This year’s class of free agent point guards is a strong one, and while the Nuggets probably won’t land Paul, it will be interesting to see whether the team shows serious interest in any other top FAs at the position. A veteran point guard like George Hill, Jeff Teague, Jrue Holiday, or even Kyle Lowry would look good in Denver’s lineup, though adding a player of that caliber would create uncertainty about Mudiay’s future with the franchise. Will he continue to get significant minutes, or will he become a potential trade chip this offseason?

4. What will the Nuggets do with their lottery pick?

Although they won’t pick as high as they have in the last couple years, the Nuggets should be able to land a talented prospect with the No. 13 pick. Chad Ford’s tiers at ESPN.com (Insider link) suggest that a few players out of a third tier that includes OG Anunoby, Zach Collins, Harry Giles, Luke Kennard, and Donovan Mitchell should be available for Denver.

I’d expect Kennard and perhaps Mitchell to be off the board by No. 13, but players like Anunoby and Giles would present the Nuggets with an interesting choice. Denver already has a fairly deep roster and doesn’t need to draft someone who can step into the rotation immediately. As such, it might make sense for the Nuggets to roll the dice on a player like Anunoby or Giles.

Both players are risks because of their injury histories, but would likely be top-10 selections based on talent alone. Denver is in a spot where it can afford to take a chance on a prospect with major upside — and potential downside.

5. What will Mason Plumlee‘s new deal look like?

The Nuggets would have had a second first-round pick in this year’s draft if not for a February deal with Portland. That trade looks like a heist for the Trail Blazers, who not only landed Jusuf Nurkic, but also picked up a first-round pick, which will be the No. 20 overall selection.

Nurkic likely wouldn’t have blossomed in Denver like he did in Portland, so the Nuggets shouldn’t feel too disheartened, but in order to salvage some value from the move, the team will need to get good production out of Plumlee in the coming years. The only problem? Plumlee is already eligible to hit the market as a restricted free agent this offseason.

Connelly has said that the team views Plumlee as a key part of its core, so it doesn’t sound like the Nuggets will let him get away. But if a team makes an aggressive offer like the Nets did to multiple RFAs last year, keeping him could get pricey. Plumlee is a solid player, but as a backup center, his role won’t necessarily be substantial unless Jokic gets hurt. The Nuggets will have to be determine how high they’re willing to go if Plumlee gets a big offer sheet.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nuggets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Kenneth Faried ($12,921,348)
Wilson Chandler ($12,016,854)
Darrell Arthur ($7,464,912)
Jameer Nelson ($4,736,050)
Will Barton ($3,533,333)
Emmanuel Mudiay ($3,381,480)
Jamal Murray ($3,355,320)
Gary Harris ($2,550,055)
Juan Hernangomez ($2,076,840)
Malik Beasley ($1,700,640)
Nikola Jokic ($1,471,382)
Total: $55,208,214

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Mike Miller ($3,500,000)¹
Total: $3,500,000

Restricted Free Agents

Mason Plumlee ($4,588,840 qualifying offer / $5,821,325 cap hold)
Total: $5,821,325

Cap Holds

Danilo Gallinari ($22,575,000) — Player option declined.
Roy Hibbert ($6,000,000)
No. 13 overall pick ($2,621,280)
Total: $31,196,280

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $43,170,506

With 11 guaranteed salaries on their books and a cap hold for their first-round pick, the Nuggets have a modest team salary of $57,829,494. If the club intends to make a serious effort to re-sign Gallinari, that figure will grow, reducing cap flexibility. But if Gallinari departs and Denver makes a trade or two, the team could create even more cap room.

Footnotes:

Miller’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 12.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Houston Rockets

June 15th, 2017 at 12:08pm CST by Arthur Hill

A year ago, the Rockets were a directionless team that barely snuck into the playoffs. They had no coach after dispatching both Kevin McHale and J.B. Bickerstaff, and there was disharmony in the locker room stemming from a cold war between James Harden and Dwight Howard.

The problems cleared up over the span of a few weeks last summer, and Houston emerged from the wreckage with a team that posted the league’s third-best record. Mike D’Antoni was hired as head coach in early June and brought a fast-paced, spread-the-floor philosophy that the Rockets embraced. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon signed as free agents, adding two weapons that were perfect for D’Antoni’s system. Howard left for Atlanta, ending the behind-the-scenes dissension.

But even with those problems solved, there are questions that remain. Here are five:

1. Does this really work?

D’Antoni has a history of excellent regular-season teams that had short playoff runs. In four straight seasons in Phoenix, he coached clubs with 62, 54, 61 and 55 wins, but never advanced past the conference finals. So even as the Rockets strung together a 55-27 campaign with a record number of 3-point attempts and makes, there were plenty of skeptics waiting for the playoff failure.

It came against San Antonio, a familiar nemesis for D’Antoni teams. The Rockets’ three-point marksmen misfired badly in the elimination game as the Spurs embarrassed them by 39 points in Houston, despite playing without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. A second-round ouster raises the age-old question of whether a team that so heavily emphasizes offense over defense can ever be a serious threat to the NBA title.

2. How do the Rockets get better?

The Rockets shipped this year’s first-round draft pick to the Lakers in a deadline deal for Lou Williams, and their second-rounder belongs to the Knicks from a 2015 trade. They own Denver’s second-round pick at No. 43 and Portland’s at No. 45, but it’s hard to find someone who can contribute right away at that point in the draft.

Free agency options will also be limited, as the Rockets lack real cap space. The good news is nine of their top 10 players are under contract next season, with Harden secured for the next two years and Anderson and Gordon for the next three. However, any significant personnel moves this summer will probably have to come through trades. GM Daryl Morey pledged this week to “keep improving our roster,” saying he doesn’t view the champion Warriors as unbeatable.

3. Will Nene be back?

The one member of the rotation headed for free agency is veteran center Nene. The Rockets signed him with their room exception last summer, getting valuable interior help for the bargain price of $2.898MM. Nene became a dependable backup, averaging 9.1 PPG in 17.9 MPG over 67 games and posting his best production per 36 minutes since 2011/12.

Nene will turn 35 before next season opens, and it’s hard to picture a better situation at this stage of his career. Look for him to re-sign in Houston, probably with a modest raise.

4. How many extensions will get handed out?

The Rockets knew they had decisions to make this summer on Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza, but changes in the new collective bargaining agreement mean Williams, Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell with be eligible for extensions as well.

Beverley can receive $31MM over three years in a new contract that would start with 2019/20. That represents a nice increase for a player who will be paid $10.5MM total over the next two seasons, but he will turn 31 before that contract kicks in, so the Rockets have to consider whether it’s a wise investment. Williams, who is two years older, can get $39MM over four years, starting with 2018/19. Capela, entering his fourth season, can be extended for four years at up to 25% of the salary cap for ’18/19.

5. Should they go over the cap or under?

Being so close to the cap line gives the Rockets a lot of flexibility heading into the summer. They could create up some extra room by renouncing all their cap holds and non-guaranteed deals, but that would mean giving up Nene and would still give them only about $12MM to work with, along with a room mid-level exception worth $4.2MM.

If Houston decides to operate over the cap, it would have two exceptions available in the amounts of $8.4MM and $3.1MM. That’s enough for a couple of small roster tweaks, but likely wouldn’t be enough for a real difference maker.

The Rockets are fully committed to their style of play, from management to the coaching staff to their superstar to their roster decisions over the past year. There’s no turning back now, so look for any personnel moves this summer to set up another record-setting year of bombing away from behind the three-point line.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Rockets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

James Harden ($28,299,399)
Ryan Anderson ($19,578,455)
Eric Gordon ($12,943,020)
Trevor Ariza ($7,420,912)
Lou Williams ($7,000,000)
Patrick Beverley ($5,513,514)
Clint Capela ($2,334,528)
Sam Dekker ($1,794,600)
Montrezl Harrell ($1,471,382)
Chinanu Onuaku ($1,312,611)
Total: $87,668,421

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Kyle Wiltjer ($1,312,611)¹
Isaiah Taylor ($1,312,611)
Total: $2,625,222

Restricted Free Agents

Bobby Brown ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
Troy Williams ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
Total: $3,236,916

Cap Holds

Nene ($3,477,600)
Total: $3,477,600

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $11,700,349

With more than $87MM on their 2017/18 cap in the form of guaranteed salaries, the Rockets would have a team salary of $89,299,651 if they added a couple cap charges for empty roster spots to that total. That would give the club about $11.7MM in cap room, which isn’t much more than what the mid-level exception is expected to be worth. In order to clear out additional space, a trade would be necessary.

Footnotes:

Wiltjer’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Brooklyn Nets

June 13th, 2017 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

For the second straight season, the Nets struggled to crack the 20-win mark, and for the second straight year, the race for the top spot in the lottery was no silver lining for fans, since the Celtics will end up with Brooklyn’s pick.

The 2013 blockbuster that saw the Nets trade multiple first-round picks (and swap rights) to Boston for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett continues to loom large over the franchise. Although there were some positive signs from some of the Nets’ young players in 2016/17, Brooklyn finished with an NBA-worst 20-62 record and owes the Celtics one more first-round pick in 2018, hampering the organization’s ability to accelerate its rebuild.

Here are five key questions facing the Nets this offseason:

1. Is Brook Lopez staying put?

Few NBA players have been involved in as much trade speculation in recent years as Lopez, but the Nets continue to show little interest in moving their veteran big man, despite not being close to contention. Brooklyn was reportedly seeking multiple first-rounders in exchange for Lopez earlier this year, reluctantly lowering the asking price to a first-round pick and a second-rounder just before the deadline, as bigs like DeMarcus Cousins and Nerlens Noel were dealt for modest packages.

Lopez is heading into the final year of his contract with the Nets, which means the team could risk losing him as an unrestricted free agent in 2018. Lopez seems happy in Brooklyn, and the franchise likes having him around as a reliable veteran presence. But the Nets aren’t going to contend in 2017/18, which means that if Lopez is going to be a part of Brooklyn’s next playoff roster, he’ll have to re-sign.

Lopez has stayed healthy in recent years and even added a three-point shot to his arsenal last season. He’d have value in a trade, so the Nets will have to decide in the coming months – or perhaps even the coming weeks – what his future holds. Is he considered a long-term piece? If so, is the club confident he won’t leave as a free agent in 2018? If not, Brooklyn may have to seriously listen to trade inquiries.

2. Will the Nets return to the restricted free agent market?

A year ago, the Nets aggressively pursued multiple restricted free agents, inking Tyler Johnson, Allen Crabbe, and Donatas Motiejunas to offer sheets. All of those offers were matched, leaving Brooklyn empty-handed, so it will be interesting to see if the team dips back into that well in 2017.

Restricted free agents are generally younger and less expensive than the top players on the unrestricted free agent market, which appeals to a Nets team building for the future. But the fact that teams have the ability to match any offer sheet their restricted free agents sign makes it difficult to pry them away. The Nets would likely have to overpay to avoid having their offers matched, and even then, there are no guarantees — Crabbe’s deal looked untenable for the Blazers, but they still matched.

This time around, the Nets could splash around for RFAs like Otto Porter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Nerlens Noel, but those players likely aren’t going anywhere even if Brooklyn offers the max. Second-tier RFAs like Jonathon Simmons, Mason Plumlee, Nikola Mirotic, and Tony Snell may make better targets for the Nets, if they decide to go that route.

3. What should the Nets do with their two first-round picks?

Although the Nets were forced to give up the No. 1 overall pick to Boston, the team still holds a pair of first-rounders. Brooklyn has the Celtics’ first-rounder (No. 27) as a result of that pick swap, and also acquired the Wizards’ pick (No. 22) in a deadline deal for Bojan Bogdanovic.

A year ago, the Nets showed that they were willing to roll the dice on a player who wouldn’t necessarily be ready to contribute right away, when they used their lone first-round selection on injured guard Caris LeVert. That’s looking like a savvy pick 12 months later, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Nets go a similar route this time around.

Prospects with health questions, such as Harry Giles and OG Anunoby, could be on the Nets’ radar, and draft-and-stash prospects like Andzejs Pasecniks and Isaiah Hartenstein may also make sense. Rodions Kurucs and Jonathan Jeanne may also have been possibilities for Brooklyn, but Kurucs has withdrawn from the draft, and Jeanne was diagnosed with Marfan syndrome, putting his basketball career in jeopardy.

4. Are there other opportunities to add draft picks?

If the Nets don’t dive into the free agent market as actively as they did a year ago, they’ll have plenty of cap room available. In order to reach the salary floor, it might make sense for the team to accommodate another club’s salary dump, if it means gaining an asset of value.

For instance, the Trail Blazers are believed to be shopping one of their three first-round picks in an effort to reduce team salary, and the Nets have reportedly inquired. The opportunity to add a first-round pick as a reward for taking on a contract like Crabbe’s or Evan Turner‘s or Meyers Leonard‘s should be appealing to the Nets. Particularly since each of those players has some upside, even if they are overpriced.

Crabbe, a Nets target last summer, would be the most obvious fit for Brooklyn, though he’ll be even more expensive than he was in 2016, due to a 15% trade kicker. It’s also worth noting that the Nets currently don’t have a 2018 first-round pick, so if they want to get back into that draft, they could seek out a trade partner besides Portland.

5. Which of the Nets’ non-guaranteed players are keepers?

The Nets only have one free agent – Randy Foye – but six of their players have non-guaranteed contracts or team options for the 2017/18 season. In some cases, those decisions should be fairly easy — Sean Kilpatrick will be brought back on his minimum salary deal, for example. Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris should return too.

In some instances though, those decisions may not be so simple. Did the Nets see enough from K.J. McDaniels down the stretch to warrant picking up his $3.48MM team option? How about former first-round pick Archie Goodwin, who is on a minimum salary contract? For every player the Nets bring back, there will be one fewer roster spot to use on a new draft pick or free agent signing.

Brooklyn has plenty of time to make many of those decisions, but will have to make early calls on Kilpatrick, Harris, and Quincy Acy, whose 2017/18 salaries will all be guaranteed by mid-July.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nets financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Brook Lopez ($22,642,350)
Jeremy Lin ($12,000,000)
Trevor Booker ($9,125,000)
Andrew Nicholson ($6,362,998)
Deron Williams ($5,474,787) — Waived via stretch provision.
Justin Hamilton ($3,000,000)
Caris LeVert ($1,632,480)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($1,471,382)
Isaiah Whitehead ($1,312,611)
Total: $63,021,608

Player Options

None

Team Options

K.J. McDaniels ($3,476,873)
Total: $3,476,873

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Quincy Acy ($1,709,538)¹
Archie Goodwin ($1,577,230)
Spencer Dinwiddie ($1,524,305)
Joe Harris ($1,524,305)²
Sean Kilpatrick ($1,524,305)³
Total: $7,859,683

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Randy Foye ($3,000,000)
No. 22 overall pick ($1,713,720)
No. 27 overall pick ($1,423,560)
Total: $6,137,280

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $33,209,882

With eight guaranteed salaries, two cap holds for first-round picks, and a pair of cap charges for empty roster spots, the Nets would have a team salary of $67,790,118. Their available cap room will dip a little if they keep some of their players with non-guaranteed salaries, as is expected, but they’d still have more than enough room to aggressively pursue at least one major free agent — perhaps an RFA, if they follow 2016’s blueprint.

Footnotes:

Acy’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 16.
Harris’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Kilpatrick’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: San Antonio Spurs

June 12th, 2017 at 10:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The San Antonio Spurs enjoyed another banner regular season and deep playoff run, only to see their championship aspirations destroyed by a key injury. When superstar Kawhi Leonard landed on the foot of the Warriors’ Zaza Pachulia in Game 1 of the Western Conference series, all the drama was drained from the series.

Gregg Popovich railed on Pachulia’s closeout, which the coach felt was a careless and dangerous play. Whether Popovich’s criticism was justified, it certainly prevented Leonard from playing the rest of the way and turned the intriguing series into a formality.

The Spurs remain one of the league’s elite teams and they could potentially be even better next season, depending upon how free agency plays out.

Here’s a look at the major questions confronting the club this offseason:

1. Can the Spurs sign unrestricted free agent Chris Paul?

The Clippers will undoubtedly offer a max deal in an effort to retain the perennial All-Star point guard. Paul’s free agent tour could be this year’s version of the Kevin Durant sweepstakes. Paul is desperately seeking a ring and the Clippers have consistently underperformed in the postseason.

If he bolts, San Antonio is the favorite to land him. The Spurs have an obvious need at the position and the possibility of CP3 joining Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge would give the NBA a third ‘Super Team’ to rival the Warriors and Cavaliers.

The major stumbling block is that the Spurs don’t have enough cap space to give Paul a max contract without some roster maneuvers. Trading sharpshooter Danny Green and his $10MM deal for next season would help the cause. However, it’s quite possible that Paul could accept a lesser deal with an opt-out after the first or second year if he’s serious about joining the Spurs.

2. If the Spurs fail to land Paul, what should they about their point guard situation?

Tony Parker is expected to miss at least the first two months of the season and Patty Mills is an unrestricted free agent.

The Spurs did draft Dejounte Murray last June and his role could expand. Mills obviously knows the system and there may not be a ton of competition to bring him back. The Spurs could easily get by with the Mills-Murray combo and get a boost from Parker when he’s ready to go.

The alternative would be to pursue one of the other starter-quality free agents on the market. Kyle Lowry, Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and former Spur George Hill will all be seeking long-term deals.

3. Should the Spurs re-sign swingman Jonathon Simmons?

Simmons will be a restricted free agent after the club extends him a qualifying offer. The University of Houston alum saw his playing time expand during the postseason, which enhanced his chances of receiving a lucrative offer sheet.

San Antonio owns Simmons’ Early Bird rights, but a heavily backloaded deal would make it difficult for the Spurs to keep him around. He’s not a young player by NBA standards — though Simmons has only two years of NBA experience, he’s 27. While the Spurs would like to keep him around, they’re not going to significantly damage their cap situation for the next few years to retain him.

4. Will Pau Gasol and David Lee exercise their player options?

One of the Spurs’ frontcourt rotation players, Dewayne Dedmon, has already decided to opt out and test the market. Gasol and Lee are more likely to stick around.

Gasol will make $16.2MM next season and he’s not going to find a better situation at his age to get another ring. He has already strongly hinted that he has no plans to leave the Spurs.

Lee would only make approximately $2.3MM if he decides to stay. Like Gasol though, he may not find a better place to pursue a championship. Lee has bounced around the league in recent seasons and suffered a knee injury in the Western Conference Finals, which would further depress his value on the open market.

5. If Manu Ginobili retires, what should the Spurs do to replace him?

Ginobili’s playing time decreased in recent years, but he was still averaging nearly 20 minutes a game. His unique skills as a sparkplug would be hard to replace.

Simmons’ playing time would spike if he re-signs and there are plenty of wing players who will be looking for teams on the free agent market.

If they don’t eat up their cap space by signing Paul or some other high-priced point guard, the Spurs could go the “you can never have enough shooters” route and try to land a J.J. Redick or C.J. Miles. Another option is to sign Adam Hanga, the Euroleague’s Defensive Player of the Year. The Spurs retain his rights after drafting him back in 2011.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Spurs financially:

Guaranteed Salary

LaMarcus Aldridge ($21,461,010)
Kawhi Leonard ($18,868,625)
Tony Parker ($15,453,126)
Danny Green ($10,000,000)
Kyle Anderson ($2,151,704)
Tim Duncan ($1,881,250) — Waived via stretch provision.
Davis Bertans ($1,312,611)
Dejounte Murray ($1,312,611)
Livio Jean-Charles ($1,035,200) — Waived.
Total: $73,476,137

Player Options

Pau Gasol ($16,197,500)
David Lee ($2,328,652)
Total: $18,526,152

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Bryn Forbes ($1,312,611)¹
Total: $1,312,611

Restricted Free Agents

Jonathon Simmons ($1,671,382 qualifying offer / $1,671,382 cap hold)
Total: $1,671,382

Cap Holds

Manu Ginobili ($21,000,000)
Patty Mills ($6,800,001)
Dewayne Dedmon ($3,477,600) — Player option declined.
Joel Anthony ($1,471,382)
No. 29 overall pick ($1,404,600)
Total: $34,153,583

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $22,856,803

With seven guaranteed contracts, plus cap holds for a first-round pick and four empty roster spots, the Spurs’ team salary is $78,143,197. That figure doesn’t include Gasol or Lee, who could pick up player options, and also doesn’t include Ginobili, Mills, or Simmons, all free agents. Even if none of those players return, San Antonio would still have work to do to clear enough room for a maximum salary player like Chris Paul.

Footnotes:

Forbes’ salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100,000) after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Miami Heat

June 12th, 2017 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Through the first half of the 2016/17 season, the 11-30 Heat looked like the greatest threat to the Celtics for the No. 1 spot in the NBA’s lottery rankings.

If the Heat had performed the entire season like they did the second half, when they went 30-11, they would’ve be the greatest threat to Boston for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

That red-hot second-half run didn’t earn Miami a spot in the postseason, but it significantly changed the team’s outlook for 2017/18. While president Pat Riley may still use the dreaded R-word (“rebuild”), a 25-win season likely would’ve seen the Heat undertaking a multiyear retooling process — instead, Riley has hinted at an accelerated rebuild with an eye toward getting the club back in contention within the next couple years.

As they look to build a roster capable of getting back into the playoffs, here are five key questions facing the Heat this offseason:

1. Will the Heat pursue a “whale”?

Even when the Heat aren’t a title contender, they’re a popular destination for free agents. South Beach is a draw, as is Florida’s lack of income tax, but the culture Riley has built in Miami is perhaps the strongest selling point. That’s what gave the Heat the opportunity to sit down with Kevin Durant during his free agency last summer, despite having the weakest roster of the six teams Durant considered.

At season’s end, Riley suggested that the Heat wouldn’t be in the market for a “whale” this offseason, but the club may not be able to help itself. A recent report suggested that the Jazz view Miami as a legit threat to poach free-agent-to-be Gordon Hayward, who reportedly has interest in the Heat.

Hayward would be a terrific fit in Miami, as a scorer and shooter capable of playing at the three or four, depending on the lineup around him. A maximum salary contract, or something close to it, would eat into the Heat’s cap room in a major way, but the team could afford it, and Hayward – who just turned 27 – might be worth the investment.

2. Will Dion Waiters and James Johnson be re-signed?

After realizing last summer that Dwyane Wade wouldn’t be returning, the Heat completed a flurry of signings using their excess cap room, and many of these contracts were for one year. That allowed the team to maintain its flexibility for this summer, but it has created a tricky situation in instances where Miami wants to re-sign some of those players.

Waiters and Johnson are the two most obvious examples — both players will be in line for big raises after earning $3MM and $4MM respectively, but the Heat don’t hold either player’s Bird rights, meaning they’ll need to use cap room to re-sign them.

As it stands, the Heat have more than enough space to sign both players, but that could change if they pursue Hayward or another top-tier free agent. Even if the Heat are able to re-sign both Waiters and Johnson, locking them up on fair, market-level deals would mean dedicating most of their available cap room to retaining last year’s roster. Unless both Waiters and Johnson are willing to accept discounted offers, it might make sense for the Heat to just bring back one of them, rather than both.

3. Will Wayne Ellington and Josh McRoberts be retained?

As opposed to Waiters and Johnson, who are free agents the Heat want to bring back, Ellington and McRoberts are under team control, but may become expendable if more cap room is needed for other players.

In Ellington’s case, the team holds a $6.27MM option on him for the 2017/18 season. For a player who made 2.4 three-pointers per game at a 37.8% rate, that price is certainly reasonable. However, Ellington’s days in Miami may be numbered if the team decides it needs that $6MM+ in cap room to sign or retain an impact player.

Ellington’s salary doesn’t become guaranteed until the end of the July moratorium, so the club should have plenty of time to determine its free agent options before a final decision on the 29-year-old sharpshooter is required.

As for McRoberts, he has already picked up his own player option to stick with the team, but that doesn’t guarantee him a spot on the ’17/18 roster. If they waive him and stretch his salary, the Heat could slice McRoberts’ $6MM cap hit to $2MM, easily creating an extra $4MM in cap room. Nagged by injuries in recent seasons, the 30-year-old big man has only appeared in 81 games in three years for Miami. He may be expendable, particularly if the Heat have lingering concerns about his foot.

4. Is Justise Winslow ready for a breakout year?

The Heat’s impressive second-half run came without 2015 first-rounder Justise Winslow in the lineup. Winslow continues to rehab a shoulder injury, and is expected to be ready to go for the 2017/18 season, but he remains a wild card for the franchise.

On one hand, Winslow is still just 21 years old, and his tremendous upside and very affordable salary make him an appealing trade asset if the Heat are looking to acquire an impact veteran. However, those traits also make him very intriguing to the Heat as a possible breakout candidate. With no guarantee that James Johnson returns, Winslow could be in line for a key role as a wing player capable of defending multiple positions — if he’s ready for it.

5. What will the Heat do with their lottery pick?

Unless their 2018 first-round pick lands in the top seven, the Heat will send it to Phoenix, so Miami’s 14th overall selection this season may be the team’s last chance for a couple years to add a young, highly-regarded prospect.

The Heat could go in a number of directions at No. 14, depending on how the rest of the lottery plays out. Swingmen like Donovan Mitchell, Justin Jackson, and Terrance Ferguson may still be on the board; three-point specialist Luke Kennard could also be available; if the Heat want to go big, Zach Collins and John Collins may be options.

If Riley and the Heat really want to roll the dice, they could target a high-upside player coming off an injury, such as Harry Giles or OG Anunoby. It’s possible that – after their experience with Chris Bosh – the Heat would shy away from players with major health concerns, but Riley has shown a willingness in the past to roll the dice rather than playing it safe.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Heat financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Hassan Whiteside ($23,775,506)
Goran Dragic ($17,000,450)
Josh McRoberts ($6,021,175) — Exercised player option.
Tyler Johnson ($5,881,260)
Justise Winslow ($2,705,040)
Total: $55,383,431
Note: Chris Bosh‘s $25,289,390 salary removed from cap due to medical ruling.

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Wayne Ellington ($6,270,000)¹
Josh Richardson ($1,471,382)²
Rodney McGruder ($1,312,611)³
Okaro White ($1,312,611)⁴
Total: $10,366,604

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Udonis Haslem ($7,600,000)
James Johnson ($4,800,000)
Dion Waiters ($3,477,600) — Player option declined.
No. 14 overall pick ($2,490,360)
Luke Babbitt ($1,471,382)
Willie Reed ($1,471,382) — Player option declined.
Total: $21,310,724

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $38,232,519

Taking into account their five guaranteed contracts, plus cap holds for a first-round pick and six empty roster spots, the Heat have a team salary of $62,767,481. However, that would mean waiving all their non-guaranteed players, including Richardson and McGruder, which is very unlikely — still, since those players are on veteran minimum salaries, they won’t cut into Miami’s cap room in a major way.

Footnotes:

Ellington’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.
Richardson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
McGruder’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($452,625) after August 1.
White’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($226,312) after July 1. Partial guarantee increases to $452,624 after August 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Washington Wizards

June 7th, 2017 at 4:57pm CST by Luke Adams

The Wizards’ 2016 offseason, which included a five-year max contract for Bradley Beal, pricey multiyear investments in Ian Mahinmi, Andrew Nicholson, and Jason Smith, and the hiring of Scott Brooks, was met with skepticism by many league observers. However, while most of the team’s free agent additions didn’t pay major dividends, Brooks’ arrival and Beal’s breakout season helped buoy Washington to a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Wizards were just one win away from knocking off the top-seeded Celtics and earning a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals, but this team isn’t a finished product. There are several areas the Wizards will need to address and a handful of questions the club will need to answer in order to make another deep playoff run a year from now.

Here are several key questions facing the Wizards as they enter the offseason:

1. Will Otto Porter be re-signed?

John Wall and Beal are the Wizards’ stars, but if anyone on the roster qualifies as the third piece of a Big Three, it’s Porter. He enjoyed the best season of his four-year career in 2016/17, averaging 13.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 1.5 SPG, with an extremely efficient .516/.434/.832 shooting line. He’s also just 24 years old, and is eligible for restricted free agency this summer.

When Beal reached restricted free agency a year ago, there was little doubt that the Wizards would retain him, despite his injury history. Porter isn’t quite a lock to be brought back — he’ll almost certainly draw enough rival interest that Washington will be forced to go up to the max for him, and he’d be making more than both Beal and Wall in that scenario. Still, letting him go wouldn’t create a ton of cap flexibility for the Wizards, and it would leave the club with a huge hole in its lineup, so I’d expect Porter to stay in D.C.

2. Will Bojan Bogdanovic be re-signed?

Like Porter, Bogdanovic provided reliable outside shooting for the Wizards this season and is eligible for restricted free agency. Bogdanovic, who was acquired at the trade deadline, isn’t as strong an all-around player as Porter, but he’s a very solid scorer off the bench on a team that had a hard time finding production from its second unit.

Assuming they tender Bogdanovic a qualifying offer, as they should, the Wizards will have the opportunity to match any offer sheet the veteran forward signs. But if Porter is re-signed, Washington won’t have a ton of flexibility to match a lucrative offer for Bogdanovic unless the team is willing to go into the tax. Depending on how aggressively suitors pursue Bogdanovic, it might make sense for the Wizards to let him go.

3. How will the Wizards fortify their bench without a first-round pick or cap room?

The Wizards traded their 2017 first-round pick for Bogdanovic earlier this year, leaving them with only the No. 52 overall pick in this year’s draft. And if they re-sign Porter, they’ll be well over the cap, leaving them without a ton of resources to address their depth. Wall has called for the club to reinforce its second unit, so how might Washington do it?

Over-the-cap teams have the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available, and those will be worth about $8.4MM and $3.3MM respectively. That could be enough to add two decent pieces in free agency, though those exceptions won’t be available if the Wizards go over the luxury tax apron — in that case, they’d have the more modest taxpayer MLE ($5.2MM), and wouldn’t be able to use the BAE.

With no obvious way of getting back into the first round or creating cap room, the Wizards may have to consider a trade or two in order to acquire some talent and create flexibility to add more.

4. Will Marcin Gortat be traded?

Gortat expressed frustration at season’s end about his role with the Wizards, suggesting that he may seek a trade this summer. Even if the veteran center doesn’t formally ask to be moved, he looks like one of the most logical trade chips on the roster.

Gortat is less expensive and has a shorter-term deal than fellow center Mahinmi, meaning he should have a little more trade value as well. Gortat and Mahinmi have similar skill-sets — they can rebound, block the occasional shot, and score in the post, but they don’t shoot from outside, and there’s little reason for both of them to get major minutes in the Wizards’ rotation.

Even if the Wizards aren’t able to get a ton of value in return for Gortat, moving his $12.78MM salary could be hugely beneficial if the team doesn’t have to take much salary back. Moving Gortat’s contract wouldn’t necessarily create cap room, but it could create the flexibility to comfortably sign Porter – and perhaps Bogdanovic – while still having room below the tax to use the full MLE and BAE. I’d expect the Wizards, at the very least, to gauge Gortat’s value in the coming weeks.

5. Who will back up John Wall?

Brandon Jennings and Trey Burke are unlikely to be back with the Wizards next season, with neither player having established himself as a reliable backup for Wall at the point (Burke had perhaps his best season as a pro, but played limited minutes and remains more of a scorer than a distributor). If they have the opportunity to dedicate some of their exception money to the point guard position, the Wizards could add a solid veteran.

Obviously, players like George Hill and Jrue Holiday aren’t realistic targets, and even second-tier free agent point guards like Patty Mills will likely be out of the Wizards’ price range. Still, the club should have the chance to land a player a little further down on free agent boards, such as Shaun Livingston, Darren Collison, Raymond Felton, Aaron Brooks, or Deron Williams.

None of those players should be counted on to be a difference-maker, but being able to rely on a veteran point guard to run the offense for 15-20 minutes per game would be valuable for a club that has often seen a massive drop-off in production at that position when Wall sits.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Wizards financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Bradley Beal ($23,775,506)
John Wall ($18,063,850)
Ian Mahinmi ($16,661,641)
Marcin Gortat ($12,782,609)
Markieff Morris ($8,000,000)
Jason Smith ($5,225,000)
Tomas Satoransky ($3,000,000)
Kelly Oubre Jr. ($2,093,040)
Chris McCullough ($1,471,382)
Martell Webster ($833,333) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $91,906,361

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Sheldon Mac ($1,312,611)¹
Daniel Ochefu ($1,312,611)²
Total: $2,625,222

Restricted Free Agents

Otto Porter ($7,732,904 qualifying offer / $14,734,953 cap hold)
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,663,316 qualifying offer / $7,088,241 cap hold)
Trey Burke ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $8,466,495 cap hold)
Total: $30,289,689

Cap Holds

Brandon Jennings ($1,440,000)
Total: $1,440,000

Trade Exceptions

Andrew Nicholson TPE ($2,515,973) — Expires 2/22/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $6,646,794

Renouncing all their free agents and waiving their non-guaranteed salaries would leave the Wizards with nine guaranteed contracts and three cap charges for empty roster slots, totaling $94,353,206. That doesn’t leave the Wizards much room to work with, so it makes more sense for the team to stay over the cap, which would allow for possible deals with RFAs like Porter and/or Bogdanovic.

Footnotes:

Mac’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($50,000) after July 1.
Ochefu’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($50,000) after July 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Sacramento Kings

June 6th, 2017 at 4:22pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings entered the 2016/17 season with playoff aspirations, and flirted with the No. 8 spot for much of the first half, with new head coach Dave Joerger opting to lean on his veterans at the expense of regular minutes for many of the team’s young players. After Rudy Gay went down with an Achilles injury and DeMarcus Cousins was traded to the Pelicans, Sacramento’s rebuild began in earnest, and Joerger will likely make sure his youngsters see more action in 2017/18.

The Cousins trade was widely viewed as a mistake by the Kings at the time, with many pundits arguing that the club dumped the All-NBA center for 25 cents on the dollar. However, Buddy Hield looked good down the stretch, and the Pelicans’ inability to make a late-season run ensured that Sacramento landed a second top-10 pick as a result of the deal. Even if neither Hield nor this year’s No. 10 pick develop into the sort of impact player that Cousins has become, they can be solid building blocks for the new-look Kings.

With the rebuild underway, here are five key questions facing the Kings this offseason:

1. Is the front office stable?

Reports on the Kings’ front office in recent years have suggested that there are too many cooks in the kitchen, with rival teams uncertain of who to call to discuss trades and who has the authority to sign off on moves.

The team’s handling of the Cousins situation reflected that front office uncertainty — the move came shortly after Cousins’ camp was assured he wouldn’t be going anywhere, and reports indicated that Hield was acquired because of owner Vivek Ranadive‘s fondness for him, despite the fact that GM Vlade Divac ostensibly has the final say on basketball decisions.

The Kings solidified their front office a little in April by adding respected veteran exec Scott Perry to the mix as an executive VP of basketball operations. Perry is believed to be taking over some day-to-day duties from Divac, and it’s worth wondering if his presence has contributed to the Kings getting a few more first-round prospects in for workouts this spring than they have in past years.

2. What will the Kings do with their two top-10 picks?

Speaking of first-round prospects, the Kings will be considering a number of them this year, since they’ll have the opportunity to nab two top players in what’s viewed as a strong draft class. Still, there aren’t necessarily any perfect fits for Sacramento with the 5th and 10th overall selections.

The Kings reportedly like De’Aaron Fox a lot, and he’d certainly be an ideal choice to plug in at point guard. But Fox’s stock has been on the rise since a strong March Madness showing, and there’s a good chance he’ll be off the board by the time the Kings are on the clock at No. 5.

With a pair of lottery picks in hand, Sacramento certainly has the ammunition available to trade up and grab Fox if they really like him — and as we saw with Hield, the Kings may be willing to sacrifice some value in order to land a player they want badly. But that would be a high price to pay, particularly when there are other good options available, including at point guard.

If the draft goes as expected, the Kings should have the chance to choose from players like Jayson Tatum, Jonathan Isaac, Malik Monk, and Dennis Smith Jr. at No. 5, and perhaps guys like Frank Ntilikina and Donovan Mitchell at No. 10.

3. Will Bogdan Bogdanovic arrive stateside this season?

In addition to deciding what to do with this year’s first-round picks, the Kings will also have to determine how to handle one of 2014’s first-rounders. Bogdanovic was one of the players Sacramento acquired in a draft-day deal with Phoenix, and he has a chance to make an impact right away, having shot 43.0% on three-pointers in Euroleague action this past season.

Of course, since it has been three years since he was drafted, Bogdanovic also isn’t obligated to sign a rookie scale contract, meaning the Kings will likely have to dip into their cap room to sign him. Considering the club could have upwards of $50MM+ in space this season, that shouldn’t be a problem, and we should see Bogdanovic in a Kings uniform in a matter of months.

4. What will the Kings do with their cap room?

Even if they sign Bogdanovic, the Kings should have a significant chunk of cap room available this season, especially if Arron Afflalo is waived and Langston Galloway opts out of his contract.

Sacramento will have to reach the salary floor one way or another, but top free agents won’t have the Kings high on their wish lists, and the Kings shouldn’t be going after pricey free agents anyway. Divac should look to the 2016 Lakers – who spent big on Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov – as a lesson in what not to do with cap room during a rebuild. There’s no need for the Kings to invest in long-term deals for veteran role players when they’re still multiple years from being a legit contender.

Instead, the Kings should be searching for any opportunity they can to acquire another team’s bad contract, with an asset of value attached to it. The Trail Blazers are one potential trade partner, since Portland has three first-round picks and $132MM+ in guaranteed salary on its 2017/18 cap. If the Kings could get one of of those picks along with Evan Turner‘s pricey contract, that would be a good use of cap room — Turner could even be a useful, albeit overpriced, rotation piece, replacing Afflalo. The Hornets, Pistons, and Thunder may be among the other teams willing to attach assets to bad contracts.

5. Will any Kings free agents be back?

Gay has opted out of his contract already, and Galloway could follow suit. In addition to those players, Tyreke Evans, Darren Collison, and Ty Lawson will be unrestricted free agents, while Ben McLemore is eligible for restricted free agency.

Gay, who has publicly expressed frustration with the organization in the past, is almost certainly gone, but what about the others? With the rebuilding process underway, many of those veterans may prefer to head to a contender, but rebuilding clubs often find value in keeping a couple vets around for locker room purposes.

McLemore is a trickier case. He’s still just 24 years old, is a former seventh overall pick, and received rave reviews from the Kings’ coaching staff last preseason. However, he didn’t get a ton of opportunities to prove his worth during the regular season, averaging a career-low 19.3 MPG in 61 contests. McLemore’s .382 3PT% was a career best and it’s not like the Kings can’t afford to retain him, but it remains to be seen if he’s part of the team’s long-term plans.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Kings financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Kosta Koufos ($8,393,000)
Garrett Temple ($8,000,000)
Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,704,160)
Buddy Hield ($3,675,480)
Georgios Papagiannis ($2,301,360)
Matt Barnes ($2,133,542) — Waived via stretch provision.
Anthony Tolliver ($2,000,000) — Waived.
Malachi Richardson ($1,504,560)
Arron Afflalo ($1,500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Skal Labissiere ($1,312,611)
Caron Butler ($517,220) — Waived via stretch provision.
Total: $35,041,933

Player Options

Langston Galloway ($5,434,000)
Total: $5,434,000

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Arron Afflalo ($11,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $11,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

Ben McLemore ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $10,022,205 cap hold)
Total: $10,022,205

Cap Holds

Rudy Gay ($20,000,000) — Player option declined.
Tyreke Evans ($15,991,931)
Darren Collison ($9,935,963)
No. 5 overall pick ($4,609,200)
No. 10 overall pick ($3,057,240)
Ty Lawson ($1,471,382)
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($1,423,560)
Total: $56,489,276

Trade Exceptions

Omri Casspi TPE ($2,963,814) — Expires 2/20/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $55,844,782

The Kings have cap holds for a pair of top-10 draft picks to account for, but their guaranteed contracts don’t amount to much. Taking into account their draft picks, guaranteed salaries, and three cap charges for empty roster spots, the Kings would have just $45,155,218 in team salary. However, that would hinge on Galloway turning down his player option, Afflalo being waived, every free agent leaving, and Bogdanovic not being signed this season, so Sacramento is unlikely to have quite that much room heading into free agency.

Footnotes:

Afflalo’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 23.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Detroit Pistons

June 5th, 2017 at 9:18pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Detroit Pistons were a massive disappointment this season and enter the offseason with plenty of tough decisions to make.

Coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy committed to the core group of players he assembled the past two years by handing out multiyear contracts to his two top players, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson, and adding some expensive pieces.

The Pistons, who made the playoffs for the time since the 2008/09 season the previous year, sank out of contention as virtually everyone on the roster underachieved. Their longest winning streak was a meager three games. Drummond and Jackson both had subpar seasons and heard their names bandied about in trade rumors.

Van Gundy now heads into a pivotal summer seeking to make roster upgrades despite an unpalatable cap situation.

Here’s a look at the major questions confronting the club this offseason:

1. Should the Pistons hold onto restricted free agent Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at all costs?

It’s expected that locking up Caldwell-Pope will require a contract in excess of $20MM per year.

Caldwell-Pope is the team’s best perimeter defender and he’s entering his prime years. If the team’s curve continued on an upward arc this season, it would a pretty easy decision to match any offer.

The team’s cap situation and Caldwell-Pope’s spotty offense changes that dynamic. They’ll be perilously close to the luxury tax threshold if they re-sign him to a big number and he’s not a consistent offensive threat. In 31 of the 76 games he played this season, Caldwell-Pope scored 10 or fewer points.

Van Gundy wants to keep Caldwell-Pope, but he shouldn’t take an “at any cost” approach to the shooting guard’s free-agency foray.

2. Should Reggie Jackson be given a mulligan or do the Pistons need to trade for another point guard?

Jackson wasn’t the same explosive force he was in the 2015/16 campaign due to knee tendinitis. He missed the first 21 games and once he returned, he couldn’t get to the rim with the same verve. That took a heavy toll on the team’s offense, which revolves around Jackson-Drummond pick-and-rolls.

Van Gundy basically shut down Jackson the last month and by the end of the season, Jackson looked like his old self in practices. Considering Jackson’s contract — he has three years and $51MM left — and reduced value on the trade market, Van Gundy may have little choice but to hope Jackson stays healthy and enjoys a bounce-back season.

3. Would it be wise to trade Andre Drummond?

Drummond made the All-Star team in 2015/16 season, but instead of taking another step forward, he became a source of frustration after his big extension kicked in.

Drummond’s scoring and rebounding averages dropped, his defensive intensity waned and his free throw shooting remained painful to watch, though he’s still one of the top young big men in the league and the NBA’s best offensive rebounder.

Jackson’s issues affected Drummond above all else and it stands to reason that a healthier Jackson will lead to a more productive Drummond. Van Gundy doesn’t consider Drummond an untouchable but he’d need to get an All-Star level player in return. The whole scheme revolves on Drummond being a dominant force and it’s doubtful that they’d find a suitable offer for him if they’re truly in a win-now mode.

4. What should the Pistons do with the No. 12 pick?

By all accounts, the Pistons are trying to shop their lottery pick. While the draft is stronger than last season’s crop and Detroit’s selection is six slots higher, the team would rather add proven veterans who can jump into the rotation.

Their first-rounder last year, power forward Henry Ellenson, shuttled between the D-League and the end of the bench.

It’s quite possible they’ll look to trade this pick for a starter-quality shooting guard that can replace Caldwell-Pope if they’re unsure they’ll re-sign him.

5. What can the Pistons do in free agency?

Van Gundy seems resigned to losing backup center Aron Baynes, who is expected to opt out of his contract. The club believes Baynes will receive generous offers that will price them out of his market.

They may need to add another backup in that case, though Boban Marjanovic was productive when they gave him a chance to play.

More importantly, a team that finished 28th in three-point percentage desperately needs another shooter or two. The club can use its mid-level exception to address that issue, perhaps even splitting it up among two role players. Pacers swingman C.J. Miles has already been mentioned as a player they’ll target in July.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Pistons financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Andre Drummond ($23,775,506)
Tobias Harris ($16,000,000)
Reggie Jackson ($16,000,000)
Jon Leuer ($10,497,319)
Boban Marjanovic ($7,000,000)
Ish Smith ($6,000,000)
Josh Smith ($5,331,729) — Waived via stretch provision.
Marcus Morris ($5,000,000)
Stanley Johnson ($3,097,800)
Henry Ellenson ($1,780,800)
Michael Gbinije ($500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Total: $94,983,154

Player Options

Aron Baynes ($6,500,000)
Total: $6,500,000

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Darrun Hilliard ($1,471,382)²
Michael Gbinije ($812,611) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $2,283,993

Restricted Free Agents

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,958,374 qualifying offer / $9,195,798 cap hold)
Reggie Bullock ($3,313,542 qualifying offer / $5,639,110 cap hold)
Total: $14,834,908

Cap Holds

Aron Baynes ($8,450,000) — If player option is declined
No. 12 overall pick ($2,759,280)
Beno Udrih ($1,471,382)
Total: $12,680,662

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $1,626,336

Taking into account their nine guaranteed salaries and cap charges for a first-round pick and two empty roster spots, the Pistons have a team salary of $99,373,664. That would involve renouncing Caldwell-Pope, Baynes, and Bullock, and still doesn’t create any real cap room, making it an unlikely scenario. So unless they make a cost-cutting trade or two, the Pistons will be an over-the-cap team this offseason.

Footnotes:

Gbinije’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.
Hilliard’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Philadelphia 76ers

June 2nd, 2017 at 11:21am CST by ChrisCrouse

In year one post-Sam Hinkie, the Sixers managed to increase the excitement surrounding the team without substantially improving the on-court product. The club never expected to push for the playoffs, but rather, it looked to give its young nucleus a chance to work together and grow for the future. Injuries to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid robbed Philadelphia of that opportunity, though in a small sample size Embiid provided the franchise with hope for the future.

Here are five questions facing the Sixers as they enter the offseason…

1. Should the front office offer Embiid an extension this summer?

Embiid dominated in limited minutes this season, flashing potential as a franchise-saving big man. He scored 20.2 points per contest with a player efficiency rating of 24.1, figures that are only matched by six other rookies who played at least 25 minutes per game. Everyone else on that list is currently in the Hall of Fame, though on average, they each played around four times as many minutes in their rookie season than Embiid did.

Embiid’s talent is clear, but will he ever be able to play a full 82-game season? That’s something that will be baked into contract negotiations over the next year. He’s eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer and it’ll be interesting to see whether he opts for long-term security or bets on his health during the final year of his rookie contract.

2. What should the Sixers do with Jahlil Okafor?

Okafor seems to be perpetually on the trade block. The Sixers made a conscious effort to showcase him on multiple occasions this season with the hope of enticing a suitor, and he was nearly dealt to Portland after the team sat him for several games. The Pelicans were also linked to the Duke product, as were the Pacers. The Bulls appeared interested in bringing the Chicago native home, but no deal materialized.

Okafor’s place in the league seems to be in question. He hasn’t taken any drastic steps forward on defense and his offense appears to have plateaued. However, as we’ve seen throughout history, some players simply need a change of scenery and that’s likely the case with Okafor, as I suggested in his Trade Candidate piece earlier this season.

3. How will the Sixers use all their draft picks?

The Sixers appear set on allowing Simmons to run the offense next season and with that plan in mind, whichever player the team selects with the No. 3 overall selection will have to comfortable playing off the ball. Philly intends to speak with Lonzo Ball‘s camp about the UCLA product’s fit alongside Simmons and the team has talked to De’Aaron Fox about playing off the ball when the 2016 No. 1 overall pick is on the court.

Markelle Fultz and Ball are likely to be the top two selections on June 22 and Philadelphia’s choice at No. 3 will impact how many of the lottery teams will operate on draft night. It was previously reported that the team likes Fox as well as Dennis Smith Jr. for that spot. Malik Monk would seamlessly fit into the offense, though selecting him as high as third overall would be a reach. Josh Jackson, whom Jonathan Givony of Draft Express ranks as the third-best prospect in the draft, makes sense based on his upside and Jayson Tatum would be a good choice due to his pro-ready game.

While Philadelphia could always trade the No. 3 overall selection, it’s more likely that the front office deals away one or more of its second-rounders. Four of Philly’s league-high five selections fall in the second round. It’ll be hard for the franchise to use all of those picks even if it selects several draft-and-stash candidates.

4. What additions will the Sixers make on the trade and free agent markets?

All signs point to a more active Sixers’ offseason than we’ve seen over the past several years. The franchise has been linked to several veterans, including J.J. Redick and Kyle Lowry. Lowry would have the most impact and signing him would likely propel Philly into the Eastern Conference’s playoff race. However, Lowry has said he’s looking to compete for a title and unless his hometown Sixers make another significant move (acquiring Paul George might qualify), the team won’t be among the NBA’s top tier, making Philadelphia unlikely to land the three-time All-Star.

Redick, who’s in line for a massive payday, would be a great fit for the Sixers should they convince him to sign. Although Philadelphia attempted more shots from behind the arc than all but six teams last season, only five teams had a worse percentage.

Adding either Redick or Lowry would allow the team to transfer a high volume of shots from below average shooters to some of the league’s best three-point marksmen. Even if the team doesn’t land a major free agent, shooting should be a top priority for Colangelo and company.

5. Which players will return next season?

Next season, teams will be allowed to carry 17 players, a figure which includes a pair of players on two-way contracts who would be allowed to migrate between the NBA and the D-League. Those extra spots could help the Sixers retain their players, as they won’t have to waive or trade players to make room for their abundance of rookies. Still, even with the extra spots, it feels like turnover is coming.

Sergio Rodriguez will be a free agent and he’s drawing interest from clubs overseas. Even though he plans on remaining in the NBA, it would be surprising if Rodriguez is back in Philadelphia given the team’s interest in point guard draft prospects. Tiago Splitter doesn’t appear likely to return and Gerald Henderson, who has a non-guaranteed $9MM salary for next season, could be ousted should the team need the cap space for a bigger move. The team reportedly has no plans to trade Dario Saric, but he’s certainly not untouchable in a deal for an established star or the No. 1 pick, and Okafor will be linked to other teams until he is on another one.

Philadelphia is set on building a team around Simmons, Embiid and its first-round pick this offseason. It would be shocking if any of those three players aren’t on the roster come opening day. Would it be all that surprising if any other Sixers player isn’t?

Here’s where things currently stand for the Sixers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Jerryd Bayless ($9,000,000)
Ben Simmons ($6,168,840)
Joel Embiid ($6,100,266)
Jahlil Okafor ($4,995,120)
Nik Stauskas ($3,807,147)
Dario Saric ($2,422,560)
Justin Anderson ($1,579,440)
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($1,386,600)
Gerald Henderson ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Tibor Pleiss ($500,000) — Waived
Total: $36,959,973

Player Options

None

Team Options

Robert Covington ($1,577,230)²
Total: $1,577,230

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Gerald Henderson ($8,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Richaun Holmes ($1,471,382)
T.J. McConnell ($1,471,382)
Shawn Long ($1,312,611)
Total: $12,255,375

Restricted Free Agents

Alex Poythress ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
Total: $1,512,611

Cap Holds

Tiago Splitter ($12,825,000)
Sergio Rodriguez ($9,600,000)
No. 3 overall pick ($5,645,400)
Furkan Korkmaz ($1,465,920)
Total: $29,536,320

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $55,186,167

The Sixers have eight players on guaranteed salaries, a cheap team option for Covington that will be exercised, and a cap hold for their No. 3 overall pick. Throw in a couple cap charges for empty roster spots and their team salary is a modest $45,813,833. Even if the Sixers retain a couple of their non-guaranteed players, as expected, they’ll have more than enough space for a maximum salary contract, with plenty of room to spare.

Footnotes:

There are conflicting reports about whether or not Henderson’s contract has a partial guarantee or no guarantee. Either way, Henderson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Covington’s salary remains non-guaranteed if team option exercised; becomes partially guaranteed ($53,547) after August 9.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.