Five Key Offseason Questions

Five Key Offseason Questions: Milwaukee Bucks

May 31st, 2017 at 4:59pm CST by Luke Adams

With Giannis Antetokounmpo evolving into a legitimate MVP candidate, the Bucks evolved along with him, finishing strong and returning to the postseason despite playing without Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker for significant portions of the season. Milwaukee may not be a bona-fide contender quite yet, but the team looked dangerous in the first round of the playoffs, taking a 2-1 lead on the Raptors before Toronto came back to win the series.

Antetokounmpo, who is still just 22 years old, may yet have room to improve, which bodes well for the Bucks as they attempt to fortify their roster around him. Finding the best way to add and retain those complementary pieces will be the key challenge for the Bucks this summer.

Here are five important questions facing the Bucks as they enter the offseason…

1. Who will be making the final call on roster decisions?

John Hammond was my pick for Executive of the Year this past season, based on his impressive work in the draft and in trades. Milwaukee isn’t exactly a top destination for elite free agents, so the Bucks benefited from having their roster managed by someone like Hammond, who was capable of finding value in minor moves.

Hammond is now the general manager in Orlando, leaving assistant GM Justin Zanik as the executive calling the shots in Milwaukee right now. Zanik is a candidate – and a good one – to take over the top job in the Bucks’ front office, but the club is conducting a broad search for that position, and has already received permission to speak to execs from four other teams.

A timetable for a hiring hasn’t yet been announced, so it remains to be seen whether the Bucks will add someone to the front office in time for that newcomer to have substantial input on the team’s offseason moves, or whether Zanik will be allowed to run the show this offseason whether or not he formally receives a promotion.

2. How does Jabari Parker fit into the Bucks’ long-term plans?

One of the decisions facing the Bucks’ new general manager this offseason will be whether or not to lock up Parker. The former No. 2 overall pick is eligible for a contract extension as of July 1, but he also remains in the process of rehabbing his second major ACL injury.

Complicating matters further is the fact that Milwaukee’s best stretch of the 2016/17 season came after Parker’s injury. When Parker went down, the Bucks had a 22-29 record, and seemed likely to tank down the stretch. Instead, the team went on a 20-11 tear to finish the season, thriving without Parker in the lineup.

That successful second-half run doesn’t mean that the Bucks are better without Parker for the long term, but – combined with his ACL injury – it’s probably enough to give the organization pause when it comes to working out a contract extension this offseason.

3. Will Greg Monroe opt in?

Monroe was the subject of trade rumors throughout the 2016/17 season, but one potential roadblock for interested teams was his 2017/18 player option. Some clubs didn’t want to trade for Monroe only to have him opt out at season’s end, while others reportedly preferred to clear his salary after one year, and didn’t want to risk him opting in.

With decision day approaching, it’s still not clear which way Monroe is leaning. On one hand, he had a reduced role this past season and isn’t a strong outside shooter or rim protector, reducing his value. On the other hand, he had a strong year as a scorer off the bench, he’s still young (27 on Sunday), and while he may not exceed his $17.88MM option salary for ’17/18 as a free agent, he should be able to top that figure easily on a multiyear deal.

The Bucks may actually prefer to have Monroe pick up his option, since their cap situation would make it tricky to land a capable replacement if he opts out.

4. Will the Bucks retain Tony Snell?

The Bucks are even less likely to have cap room to use on outside free agents if they decide to bring back Snell, who is a restricted free agent. A key rotation piece in 2016/17, Snell established new career highs in MPG (29.2), PPG (8.5), FG% (.455), 3PT% (.406), and several other categories. The 25-year-old, who was one of the team’s most reliable three-point shooters and wing defenders, will be in line for a raise this summer, and the amount of that raise figures to determine whether or not he remains in Milwaukee.

A year ago, wing players like Kent Bazemore, Evan Turner, and Allen Crabbe landed $70MM+ contracts. Snell was arguably just as effective as any of them last season, but he’s unlikely to be as expensive — fewer teams will have cap room, and the fact that all those 2016 deals look like poor investments now will likely deter clubs from being too aggressive on a player like Snell. Still, the former Bull figures to draw plenty of outside interest, and the Bucks – with the flexibility to match any offer – will have to decide how high they’re willing to go.

5. Will the Bucks roll the dice in the first round again?

Antetokounmpo may be a top-10 player now, but he was only the 15th overall pick in 2013, having been viewed at the time as a raw project with upside. That gamble paid off in a major way for the Bucks, who rolled the dice again in 2016 on Thon Maker with at No. 10 overall.

At the time, ESPN’s Chad Ford wrote that the Maker pick was “probably the biggest surprise of the draft,” and one that received plenty of criticism. It remains to be seen how that pick will work out for Milwaukee in the long run, but Maker showed plenty of flashes of promise in limited action in his rookie season, and looks capable of developing into a difference-maker.

The Bucks are picking way down at No. 17 this season, so it will be interesting to see whether the new management group decides to play it safe and add a potential bench piece, or whether the club swings for the fences again. As I noted earlier, the Bucks aren’t likely to attract top free agents, and probably won’t have a top-five pick anytime soon, so gambling on a high-upside player again in the mid-first-round makes a lot of sense.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Bucks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($22,471,911)
Khris Middleton ($14,100,000)
John Henson ($11,422,536)
Mirza Teletovic ($10,500,000)
Matthew Dellavedova ($9,607,500)
Jabari Parker ($6,782,392)
Thon Maker ($2,684,160)
Rashad Vaughn ($1,889,040)
Larry Sanders ($1,865,547) — Waived via stretch provision
Malcolm Brogdon ($1,312,611)
Total: $82,635,697

Player Options

Greg Monroe ($17,884,176)
Spencer Hawes ($6,021,175)
Total: $23,905,351

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Gary Payton II ($1,312,611)¹
Total: $1,312,611

Restricted Free Agents

Tony Snell ($4,588,840 qualifying offer / $5,920,818 cap hold)
Total: $5,920,818

Cap Holds

Greg Monroe ($22,289,589) — If player option is declined
Spencer Hawes ($9,523,137) — If player option is declined
Michael Beasley ($1,471,382)
Jason Terry ($1,471,382)
No. 17 overall pick ($2,135,040)
Total: $36,890,530

Trade Exceptions

Roy Hibbert TPE ($5,000,000) — Expires 2/23/18
Tyler Ennis TPE ($1,733,880) — Expires 9/22/17
Miles Plumlee TPE ($1,151,241) — Expires 2/2/18
Michael Carter-Williams TPE ($815,199) — Expires 10/17/17

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $14,598,033

With their nine players on guaranteed contracts, their first-round pick, and two empty roster spot charges, the Bucks have $86,401,967 in projected salary for 2017/18, giving the team a little breathing room under the cap. However, that’s probably not a realistic scenario, since it would mean renouncing Snell and all their trade exceptions, not to mention Monroe and Hawes both turning down their player options. It’s much more likely that the Bucks will remain over the cap this offseason.

Footnotes:

Payton’s 2017/18 salary believed to be non-guaranteed, per Basketball Insiders. The Vertical lists it as guaranteed.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Los Angeles Lakers

May 29th, 2017 at 8:03pm CST by Dana Gauruder

It’s rare for a team that finished 41 games out of the top spot in its conference to have an air of optimism surrounding the organization. One of the league’s storied franchises has hit hard times lately but the Los Angeles Lakers headed into the offseason with some real hope for a turnaround.

They got lucky in the lottery, securing the No. 2 pick and putting off the first-round debt they owe to the Sixers for another season. They have a new front office direction, thanks to the in-season shakeup which saw Lakers legend Magic Johnson and former agent Rob Pelinka become the franchise’s top two executives. They already hired a coveted young coach prior to last season in Luke Walton.

There’s also a reasonable chance they can attract a top-level free agent or use some of their assets to trade for an All-Star level player.

Here’s a look at the major questions confronting the club this offseason:

1. Should the Lakers pursue a trade for Pacers star Paul George or wait until he becomes a unrestricted free agent?

George’s desire to play for the Lakers is an open secret. He would give Johnson the star he covets, and Magic has no bones that he’ll be shopping for a superstar.

Whether George fits that category is debatable but he’s undeniably one of the top forwards in the league. In a perfect world, the Lakers could sit back and wait for George to sign the dotted line next summer.

If the Lakers really want him, a preemptive strike might be necessary. They would probably have to move the No. 2 overall pick and a couple of young players to entice the Pacers to trade George prior to his walk year. Magic apparently views last June’s lottery pick, Brandon Ingram, as his only untouchable.

2. Assuming the Lakers don’t trade their lottery pick, is Lonzo Ball the right choice?

It’s expected the the Celtics will select Markelle Fultz, though GM Danny Ainge is notoriously secretive about his intentions on draft day. Ball would make sense on a lot of fronts. He wants to play there — or at least his meddling dad is trying to steer him in that direction.

Johnson has said that Ball’s spotlight-seeking father will not be a factor in whether he selects the UCLA playmaker. Ball’s flashy playmaking would be a natural fit for a team that finished 26th in assists per possession. If Ball goes No. 1, Fultz would be hard to pass up.

3. If the Lakers draft a point guard, what should they do with D’Angelo Russell?

Several teams are reportedly interested in Russell if the Lakers shop him. Russell, who was the No. 2 pick in 2015, has been a bit of a disappointment in his first two seasons. While no one would label him a bust, he hasn’t provided the impact a franchise would anticipate from someone drafted that high.

However, there’s a school of thought that Russell might thrive as on off-guard. He’s an aggressive scorer who wants to take the big shot. Ball’s pass-first mentality might mesh well with Russell’s game.

If they wind up with Fultz, who’s more of a scorer, it may be tougher to pair him up with Russell. In that scenario, trading Russell would be almost inevitable.

4. What should the Lakers do on the free agent market?

Proceed cautiously. The previous regime overspent on a couple of veterans last summer, Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng, and now they’re stuck with a couple of bad contracts.

They do have a decent amount of cap space, given that they have approximately $78MM in salary commitments. They could go after a top-level free agent by trying to open up more space via trades.

A dynamic power forward to pair up with Ingram would be the logical route, given that the free agent crop of centers and shooting guards is unremarkable.

Blake Griffin stands out in that regard. Griffin could stay put in Los Angeles, while his recent injury and offcourt issues could shrink the amount of teams willing to shell out the big bucks on him.

Serge Ibaka would be a lower-cost alternative, a productive starter who would provide a solid veteran presence on an otherwise green starting unit. Chris Bosh would also be intriguing once he hits the free agent market — Pelinka is his former agent, and he could teach the young group what it takes to be a winner.

5. The Lakers have another first-round pick at No. 28. What should they do with it?

Johnson received this pick in the Lou Williams deadline trade with the Rockets, giving the club another asset.

They’ve got plenty of youth on the roster and it’s unlikely they’ll want to have another rookie on their bench. Most likely, they’ll look to trade this pick for future considerations or a veteran player who can provide immediate help. If they can’t move it, a draft-and-stash prospect would be the desired route.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Lakers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Luol Deng ($17,190,000)
Timofey Mozgov ($15,280,000)
Jordan Clarkson ($11,562,500)
Corey Brewer ($7,579,366)
D’Angelo Russell ($5,562,360)
Brandon Ingram ($5,519,400)
Julius Randle ($4,149,242)
Larry Nance Jr. ($1,471,382)
Ivica Zubac ($1,312,611)
Total: $69,626,861

Player Options

Nick Young ($5,668,667)
Total: $5,668,667

Team Options

David Nwaba ($1,312,611)
Total: $1,312,611

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Tarik Black ($6,655,325)¹
Total: $6,655,325

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Nick Young ($10,343,444) — If player option is declined
No. 2 overall pick ($6,286,560)
Tyler Ennis ($2,666,707)
Thomas Robinson ($1,471,382)
Metta World Peace ($1,471,382)
No. 28 overall pick ($1,414,920)
Total: $23,654,395

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $22,856,044

With nine guaranteed contracts, two cap holds for first-round picks, and one cap charge for an empty roster slot, the Lakers would have $78,143,956 on their books. That would give the team a sizable chunk of cap room, albeit not quite enough for a maximum salary player. The Lakers aren’t likely to sign anyone to a max contract this summer, but if they wanted to, they’d need to move guaranteed contracts and/or draft picks to create space.

Footnotes:

Black’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 4.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Toronto Raptors

May 26th, 2017 at 1:06pm CST by Luke Adams

The Raptors remain in the midst of their best multiyear stretch in franchise history. After never winning more than 47 games in a season during the first 18 years of their existence, the Raps have topped that total in each of the last four years, recording 50+ wins for the second time in 2016/17. After winning only one playoff series in the first 20 years of the team’s existence, Toronto notched three postseason series victories in the last two seasons.

Still, the Raptors’ 2016/17 season ended on a sour note. After acquiring Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker at the trade deadline in an effort to seriously threaten the Cavaliers in the East, Toronto was thoroughly outmatched in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, failing to win a single game against Cleveland. The resounding defeat created uncertainty about what the future looks like for the Raptors, particularly since key players like Ibaka, Tucker, and Kyle Lowry are unrestricted free agents this summer.

Here are five important questions facing the Raptors as they enter the offseason…

1. Can the Raptors afford to re-sign multiple key free agents?

Before considering whether or not it makes on-court sense to re-sign several of their key free agents, the Raptors will need to determine exactly how far into tax territory ownership is willing to go to keep this roster intact. With about $77MM already in guaranteed salaries on the books for 2017/18, the club would likely need to commit another $60MM+ to re-sign Lowry ($30MM), Ibaka ($20MM), and Tucker ($10MM). And that’s assuming Patrick Patterson, another valuable rotation piece, doesn’t return, since team president Masai Ujiri has said it’s not realistic to bring back all four players.

Those salary figures are estimates, but I think they’re in the general ballpark, and they’d put the Raptors way over the projected $121MM tax line. Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment, the company that owns the Raptors, has no shortage of money available, but it’s not like this is a championship roster that needs to be kept intact at any cost. Ownership will almost certainly draw the line somewhere — depending on where that line is drawn, it may not be realistic for the Raptors to re-sign certain free agents unless they move other contracts in trades.

2. Can the Raptors afford not to re-sign multiple key free agents?

After watching the Cavaliers’ decimation of the Raptors in this year’s playoffs, it’s easy to say Toronto should blow up its roster, focus on adding young talent, and work toward contending a few years from now, when LeBron James‘ peak is over. But that’s much easier said than done.

With $77MM already on their books for 2017/18, the Raptors aren’t in position to pursue another top free agent even if they renounce all their own FAs. And if they were to renounce their own free agents, that would mean losing very good players like Lowry and Ibaka for nothing.

If the Raptors cleaned house entirely, trading several of their veteran players, they probably wouldn’t get huge returns for any of them — DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas are good players, but have big contracts and lack some of the skills required to thrive in the modern NBA. DeMarre Carroll is overpriced, given his injury history. Cory Joseph is a decent trade chip, but he wouldn’t exactly inspire a bidding war. And the team’s other players are young enough that it doesn’t make sense to move them as part of a rebuild.

Retooling around DeRozan and some of the young players is another possibility, but that would likely set up the Raptors to be a middle-of-the-pack team for the immediate future, making it difficult to land lottery picks and acquire star talent going forward. It would also put them far behind division rivals like the Celtics and Sixers in terms of long-term upside.

This is a long-winded way of saying that the Raptors’ best bet, despite the team’s inability to knock off the Cavs, may be to bring back Lowry and one or two of its other free agents. That team wouldn’t be the favorite in the East, but it would probably still be a top-four seed. That’s not a bad place to be for the time being, as the club considers how best to build a legit contender.

3. Which players may need to be traded this offseason?

If the Raptors do re-sign Lowry and Ibaka, or Lowry, Tucker, and Patterson, the team would likely need to clear salary elsewhere to avoid the tax. The three most logical trade candidates on the roster are Valanciunas, Carroll, and Joseph, but it won’t be easy to get a great return for any of them, as noted above.

Valanciunas has improved on defense over the last few years, but still isn’t an elite rim protector, and his low-post style makes it hard to keep him on the court against certain teams. The trade market was over-saturated with that type of player this past year, with guys like Greg Monroe and Enes Kanter not generating much interest. Valanciunas is set to make $15MM+ in 2017/18, and his best bet for increasing his trade value – or his role in Toronto – would be to have him pull a Brook Lopez and develop an outside shot.

Carroll’s skill-set is a better fit in today’s NBA, but the three-and-D specialist has been plagued by injuries since coming to Toronto, putting a dent in both his on-court production and his trade value. With a $14.8MM cap hit in ’17/18 and another year left on his contract after that, Carroll will be a difficult piece to trade unless the Raptors attach a draft pick to him.

That leaves Joseph as the team’s most logical trade piece, and clearing his $7.6MM+ salary could help create a little breathing room for the Raptors to re-sign free agents. Still, for a trade to become a realistic possibility, the Raps will have to re-sign Lowry and be confident that the Delon Wright/Fred VanVleet duo is ready to take the reins in that backup role.

4. Are the young players ready to step up?

Speaking of Wright and VanVleet, they’re part of a large group of young players that could be ready for larger roles with the Raptors. Outside of those point guards, the Raps also have big men Jakob Poeltl and Lucas Nogueira waiting in the wings, with Bruno Caboclo and Pascal Siakam lurking as possible future rotation pieces. Norman Powell, of course, has been the best of the bunch to date, playing a key part in the club’s first-round victory over Milwaukee.

Many of those players showed some very promising flashes of potential this past season, and while Caboclo and Siakam may not be ready for expanded roles quite yet, the development of this group of players could be key for the Raptors’ ability to build a sustainable winner. If Toronto decides that Poeltl, Wright, and Nogueira can be solid contributors, it would become easier to move guys like Joseph and Valanciunas, which in turn would create more financial flexibility for a team that has some major cap decisions to make.

5. Is Dwane Casey the right coach for the Raptors?

Casey has been the most successful head coach in Raptors’ history, compiling a 261-215 regular-season record (.548) to go along with four playoff berths. However, the team has displayed a worrying habit of regressing in the postseason, with Lowry’s and DeRozan’s scoring and efficiency numbers taking major hits.

While it may not be fair to place all the blame for that on Casey, Ujiri did make a point during his end-of-season presser this month to stress that the team will re-think its style of play this summer. According to Ujiri, the key to improvement for the Raptors may not be continuing to change their players, but rather to change their approach on the court.

Ujiri sounds ready to give Casey a chance to make the necessary on-court changes, but if he proves incapable of adjusting, Toronto may eventually be in the market for a new head coach.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Raptors financially:

Guaranteed Salary

DeMar DeRozan ($27,739,975)
Jonas Valanciunas ($15,460,675)
DeMarre Carroll ($14,800,000)
Cory Joseph ($7,630,000)
Lucas Nogueira ($2,947,305)
Jakob Poeltl ($2,825,640)
Bruno Caboclo ($2,451,225)
Delon Wright ($1,645,200)
Pascal Siakam ($1,312,611)
Total: $76,812,631

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Norman Powell ($1,471,382)¹
Fred VanVleet ($1,312,611)²
Total: $2,783,993

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Serge Ibaka ($18,375,000)
Kyle Lowry ($18,000,000) — Player option declined.
Patrick Patterson ($11,495,000)
P.J. Tucker ($10,070,000)
No. 23 overall pick ($1,645,200)
Total: $59,585,200

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $20,910,939

With nine players on guaranteed salaries and a cap hold for a first-round pick, the Raptors could add two cap charges for empty roster spots for a total team salary of $80,089,061. However, that scenario would involve waiving Powell and VanVleet, not to mention renouncing Lowry, Ibaka, Patterson, and Tucker. That’s not realistic. It’s far more likely that Toronto stays over the cap and makes an effort to re-sign some of its own free agents, forgoing potential cap room.

Footnotes:

Powell’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 29.
VanVleet’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 20.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Minnesota Timberwolves

May 25th, 2017 at 12:57pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Timberwolves were one of the most disappointing teams in the league during the 2016/17 campaign. Blessed with two of the league’s top young players in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, the Tiimberwolves made a bold move after last season and hired Tom Thibodeau as their coach and president of basketball operations.

Long considered a defensive guru, Thibodeau was supposed to greatly improve the club’s mindset and turn its fortunes around quickly. It didn’t happen, as the Timberwolves finished at 31-51 — just two games better than the previous season — and finished 28th in defensive field-goal percentage at 47.5%.

While Thibodeau’s first season with the franchise didn’t go as planned, there’s still plenty of optimism that he’ll guide the Timberwolves into the postseason as soon as next season. However, he’s got a lot of work to do this summer to make that happen.

Here’s a look at the major questions confronting the club this offseason:

1. Will the Wolves finally trade Ricky Rubio?

Rubio’s name has circulated around the rumor mill ever since Thibodeau took charge. The rumors only intensified when Thibodeau drafted Kris Dunn as his future floor leader last June.

The Knicks, Pistons, Mavericks and Kings are among the teams that have been mentioned as possible trade destinations for Rubio. To his credit, Rubio didn’t seem to be affected by the talk once he took the court. He averaged career highs with 11.1 PPG and 9.1 APG but it doesn’t make sense to keep this awkward situation in place for another year.

Thibodeau may be having second thoughts about Dunn but it won’t affect his desire to make a change at point guard. He reportedly plans to target Knicks point guard Derrick Rose in free agency.

Whether the club is successful in landing Rose or opts to give Dunn a shot to prove himself, the Timberwolves need to move on from Rubio. The flashy European still has two years and approximately $29MM left on his contract but that shouldn’t be a major impediment, considering the going rate for a starting point guard these days.

2. Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine are eligible for rookie extensions. What should the Wolves do?

The Wolves will probably have to max out Wiggins to keep him. As long as they view him as the second- or third-best player on a perennial contender, they should do everything possible to make that happen. Wiggins averaged 23.6 PPG in his third season and improved his 3-point shooting to a respectable 35.6%.

Negotiations with LaVine figure to be much trickier. He was enjoying a breakout season, averaging 18.9 PPG and 3.0 APG, when he tore his ACL in a February game at Detroit. There’s no word whether LaVine will be ready for the start of next season, but even if he doesn’t miss much time, it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be the same explosive and ultra-athletic player.

The Timberwolves could take a wait-and-see approach with LaVine and then try to re-sign him when he enters restricted free agency after next season. However, if LaVine and his reps are willing to give the team a discount in the $15MM per year range, instead of betting that he’ll be the same player after the injury, then the sides could come to an agreement.

3. What are Minnesota’s greatest needs on the trade and free agent market?

Thibodeau said just after the season that he’ll be targeting wing defenders, shot-blockers and shooters.

Of course, if the club pursues Rose, the budget to fill all those other needs will shrink.

It’s also quite possible that Thibodeau will try to do something bolder — perhaps package Rubio or Dunn and the No. 6 overall pick to see if he can pry Jimmy Butler from the Bulls or a similar All-Star level player.

If Nikola Pekovic retires as expected, the Wolves would have up to $32MM to sign Rose or another solid starter, as well as fortify their bench. Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Redick, Nikola Mirotic or Dion Waiters would give the club the quality outside shooter Thibodeau covets. P.J. Tucker would be a great fit as a wing defender, while Taj Gibson or Serge Ibaka would help Minnesota’s interior defense.

4. Should the Wolves re-sign Shabazz Muhammad?

Thibodeau said that he wants to retain the swingman, who has been one of their main reserves over the past three seasons. He’ll be a restricted free agent once the Timberwolves extend a qualifying offer.

While the Timberwolves can match any offer sheet, it’s doubtful they’ll go completely overboard to keep him with the need to lock up Wiggins and Towns in the near future.

The Nets reportedly are interested in Muhammad, a solid scorer but subpar 3-point shooter. Given the money the Nets threw at Donatas Motiejunas, Tyler Johnson, and Allen Crabbe — only to see those offer sheets matched — the Timberwolves could have a tough call if Brooklyn or another suitor tries similar tactics with Muhammad.

5. Which player could the Wolves choose with the No. 7 pick?

Kentucky’s Malik Monk would fill the need for a big-time shooter who can score in bunches. Monk averaged nearly 20 PPG in his only season with the Wildcats and shot 39.7% from long range. With the uncertainty surrounding LaVine’s health, he could step right in at the shooting guard spot if LaVine is slow to recover.

Florida State’s combo forward Jonathan Isaac would be an intriguing choice, considering the athleticism and length he brings to the table. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, filling a major need for a defensively-challenged club.

Gonzaga’s Zach Collins would be a bit of a reach at this point of the draft but he would complement Towns’ skill set with his size and shot-blocking prowess.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Timberwolves financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Ricky Rubio ($14,275,000)
Gorgui Dieng ($14,112,360)
Nikola Pekovic ($11,600,000)
Andrew Wiggins ($7,574,323)
Cole Aldrich ($7,300,000)
Karl-Anthony Towns ($6,216,840)
Kris Dunn ($4,046,760)
Nemanja Bjelica ($3,949,999)
Zach LaVine ($3,202,218)
Tyus Jones ($1,471,382)
Kevin Martin ($1,360,305) — Waived via stretch provision.
Total: $75,109,187

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Jordan Hill ($4,180,000)¹
Total: $4,180,000

Restricted Free Agents

Shabazz Muhammad ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $7,615,748 cap hold)
Total: $7,615,748

Cap Holds

Brandon Rush ($4,200,000)
No. 7 overall pick ($3,821,640)
Adreian Payne ($3,100,094)
Omri Casspi ($1,471,382)
Total: $12,593,116

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $32,037,943

Although Pekovic remains on the Timberwolves’ books, medical retirement appears likely for him. If that becomes official, the Wolves could remove Pekovic’s charge from their cap, leaving the team with nine guaranteed salaries, a cap hold for a first-round pick, and two cap hits for empty roster spots, totaling $68,962,057. That would leave enough room to offer a maximum-salary contract to any free agent with less than 10 years of NBA experience.

Footnotes:

Hill’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Los Angeles Clippers

May 19th, 2017 at 1:41pm CST by ChrisCrouse

“What if” is a question we often ask in sports. What if the Blazers had drafted Michael Jordan? What if Amar’e Stoudemire and Boris Diaw had been available for Game 5 of the 2007 Western Conference Finals? What if the Wolves hadn’t passed on Stephen Curry (twice!)? What if the Lakers had officially acquired Chris Paul? One can easily wander down one of the many “what if” roads throughout NBA history.

The Paul-era Clippers represent another “what if” avenue. What if the club hadn’t been plagued with such bad injury luck? Would this team have a title? Would it be blasphemous to talk about breaking up the Clippers’ core when Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan remain very much in their primes? Perhaps we’re watching Griffin in awe, debating where he ranks among the all-time great big men in league history. Yet, as with all of the NBA’s “what if” quandaries, they simply are not reality.

The 2016/17 season provided another gruesome chapter in the Lob City era. Another injury to Griffin crushed any hope the club had of stealing a title from the Warriors or Cavs. The organization faces an inflection point this summer and it must determine whether or not its collection of talent can compete at the highest level.

Here are five questions facing the Clippers as they enter the offseason…

1. Can the Clippers re-sign Chris Paul?

The Clippers have a massive advantage over rival teams when it comes to re-signing Paul. The CBA will allow the franchise to give Paul a five-year, max deal, something that wasn’t always available for players in his age bracket. In the previous CBA, players could not sign max contracts that ran past their 36th birthday. That threshold has been extended to 38, which gives the Los Angeles the ability give the 32-year-old a five-year, deal worth a projected $205MM+. The most any other team can offer is four years and an estimated $152MM.

While Paul may take meetings with other clubs, it’s unlikely he plays for any team besides the Clippers. Reports of a verbal agreement in place have been swirling since mid-season and a source told Mitch Lawrence of Forbes prior to the postseason that the deal is “all done, with a wink and a nod.”

Team president Doc Rivers‘ top priority this offseason will be bringing back the chronically underrated point guard. It appears that task is already in hand, which will allow the front office to determine the next steps this offseason.

2. Can the Clippers bring back Blake Griffin?

Whether or not the Clippers should give Griffin north of $175MM over five seasons is up for debate. His injury history, as well as his fit next to Jordan, should give Los Angeles pause when entering negotiations. However, the Clips knows that some team will pay Griffin the max (albeit, on a four-year deal) if they don’t and it’s not as if they can just spend elsewhere to replace him should they deem he’s not worthy of that kind of deal.

The franchise has nearly $60MM in guaranteed deals on its books for the 2016/17 campaign. Of those contracts, only six players are under control for next year (L.A. will pay parts of three contracts it waived via the stretch provision and the team will likely pay just over $1MM to Paul Pierce). Let’s assume the Clippers brings back their future Hall of Fame point guard on a max contract (estimated first-year salary of $35.35MM), and account for at least five minimum salaried slots. In that scenario, Los Angeles is already at the projected $101MM salary cap without re-signing Griffin.

The Clippers can go over the cap to sign Griffin since they own his Bird rights, and giving the 28-year-old power forward whatever it takes to keep him on the team makes the most sense for the franchise.

3. Is J.J. Redick worth his market price?

The Clippers’ front office will have to evaluate the financial ramifications of bringing the team’s core back and Redick could be a casualty of a business decision. The Duke product will likely command an annual salary of $15MM+ per season, which means the Clippers would continue to rampage through tax territory if they re-sign their top three pending free agents.

It’s unclear if owner Steve Ballmer is willing to pay the luxury tax for a team that remains unlikely to beat the Warriors in a seven-game series. Even if Ballmer doesn’t find the tax line to be a deterrent, Redick is far from a lock to return. He has several rival teams interested in his services and, among the Clippers’ top free agents-to-be, he’s the most likely to sign elsewhere.

4. Should the Clippers trade for Carmelo Anthony?

Nearly every commodity has a price at which it makes sense to buy, and we may find out what price the Clippers are willing to pay for Anthony this offseason.

For the last couple seasons, it appeared the cost of acquiring Anthony was too high for the Clippers to take on. It wouldn’t make sense for the team to trade someone like Griffin for the right to pay Anthony nearly $31MM during the 2017/18 season, only to negotiate another lucrative deal with the 10-time All-Star during the 2018 offseason. However, if the cost is Austin Rivers and Redick (via sign-and-trade), then the price of acquiring Anthony begins to match the value he would bring.

Anthony won’t vault the team into true contender status, but his presence would help the Clippers compete with any non-Warriors Western Conference team. If Ballmer is willing to pay the tax for the luxury of being in the league’s second tier and the Knicks are willing to accept the aforementioned offer, then bringing Anthony on board may be Los Angeles’ best option this offseason.

5. Can the front office develop talent and effectively round out the roster?

One of the franchise’s major issues has been its inability to find talent on the cheap. Teams like the Hawks and Grizzlies find the Kent Bazemores and JaMychal Greens of the world because of their ability to identify and develop talent, while the Clippers constantly make questionable decisions with their end of bench roster spots. Rivers has signed the likes of Brandon Bass and Alan Anderson—veterans who are largely ineffective and don’t have much room to grow—instead of younger players with more potential.

The Clippers’ use of their minimum salaried slots will be more important than ever this season. Los Angeles doesn’t have any draft selections this year and it won’t have the bi-annual exception at its disposal since it signed Luc Mbah a Moute last offseason. Outside of the taxpayer’s mid-level exception, the team will likely fill its remaining open roster spots with minimum salaried deals. Taking a new approach to filling those slots will be crucial and it’ll be a harder task now that every team will have up to two additional roster spots to stash young talent.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Clippers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

DeAndre Jordan ($22,642,350)
Jamal Crawford ($14,246,988)
Austin Rivers ($11,825,000)
Wesley Johnson ($5,881,260)
Brice Johnson ($1,331,160)
Diamond Stone ($1,312,611)
Paul Pierce ($1,096,080) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Carlos Delfino ($650,000) — Waived via stretch provision
Jordan Farmar ($510,921) — Waived via stretch provision
Miroslav Raduljica ($252,043) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $59,748,413

Player Options / Early Termination Options

Chris Paul ($24,268,959) (ETO)
Blake Griffin ($21,373,952) (ETO)
Luc Mbah a Moute ($2,302,135) (PO)
Marreese Speights ($2,116,955) (PO)
Total: $50,062,001

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Paul Pierce ($2,583,760) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Total: $2,583,760

Restricted Free Agents

None

Cap Holds

Chris Paul ($34,303,241) — If early termination option is exercised
Blake Griffin ($30,211,259) — If early termination option is exercised²
J.J. Redick ($14,017,250)
Luc Mbah a Moute ($2,863,900) — If player option is declined
Alan Anderson ($1,471,382)
Brandon Bass ($1,471,382)
Raymond Felton ($1,471,382)
Marreese Speights ($1,471,382) — If player option is declined
Total: $87,281,178

Trade Exceptions

C.J. Wilcox TPE ($1,209,600) — Expires 7/15/17

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $36,357,897

Determining the Clippers’ maximum cap space is a less interesting exercise than it is for most other teams, since there’s very little chance the Clips will part ways with all their free-agents-to-be in an effort to create cap room. Still, it’s worth noting that if the club renounces those free agents and exceptions, keeps its six guaranteed salaries, and accounts for six empty roster spots, that would result in a $64,642,103 team salary. A new deal for Paul would eat up most of that room, and if the Clippers are able to retain Griffin as well, that would send team salary way over the cap.

Footnotes:

Pierce’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Griffin’s cap hold can’t exceed his maximum salary, which is currently projected to be $30,300,000.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Utah Jazz

May 15th, 2017 at 7:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

On the surface, the Utah Jazz seem poised to be a serious contender for years to come. They bounced back from an injury-riddled, 40-42 campaign in 2015/16 and finished 20 games over .500 this season. That 51-31 record was good enough for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference.

They made some noise in the playoffs, defeating the more-heralded Los Angeles Clippers in a hotly-contested series that took the full seven games to decide. The Jazz stunned the Clippers at the Staples Center after losing Game 6 in Salt Lake City. There was no shame in getting swept by the much more talented Warriors in the conference semifinals.

Utah’s top players are either in or approaching their prime years. The problem is that as many as five key contributors could enter the free agent market this summer, including its franchise player. Within a couple of months, the Jazz could continue to build upon the momentum of a successful season or be faced with a major rebuild.

Here’s a look at the biggest questions confronting the club this offseason:

1. Will Gordon Hayward remain the face of the franchise or be lured away by another playoff team?

There’s little doubt that Hayward will sacrifice the $16.7MM salary he was scheduled to earn next season and opt out of the final year of his contract. What Hayward decides to do will have enormous implications on the franchise’s future.

Hayward’s value is at its peak after he set new career marks in PPG (21.9) and RPG (4.7) this year. It’s possible that Hayward could opt in and then sign a massive extension, which could eat up to 35% of the team’s cap if he is named to an All-NBA team, which will be unveiled Thursday.

The more likely scenario is that Hayward shops his services and tests the market, though by possessing his Bird rights the Jazz can pay him more than any potential suitor. The Jazz will have to max out Hayward, or come close to doing so, to have any hope of keeping him around. The Celtics certainly come to mind among contending teams that might view Hayward as the missing piece to a championship. Plenty of others will make a pitch for him should he decide to enter the market.

The Jazz would have little choice but to pay whatever is required to keep Hayward because without him, they immediately have the look of a lottery team.
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2. The point guard situation is muddled, with two rotation players headed for free agency. What should they do?

Utah’s front office would feel a lot more comfortable if Dante Exum emerged as the floor leader it anticipated when drafting him No. 5 overall in June 2014. A knee injury sidetracked Exum’s development and he hasn’t been the same explosive player since his return. He had a woeful 8.58 PER this season.

George Hill and Shelvin Mack are unrestricted free agents, and re-signing Hill would seem to be the second-highest priority, other than retaining Hayward. Hill, who has expressed a desire to remain in Utah, is coming off a season in which he averaged a career-high 16.9 PPG. His importance to the club was only reinforced when he missed three of the four postseason games against Golden State.

If the Jazz lose Hill, they’ll be exploring the trade and free agent markets for a replacement. Mack is nothing more than a solid backup, though the Jazz could re-sign him if the price is reasonable and they don’t feel comfortable with Exum as the main reserve.

3. Rodney Hood can be signed to an extension prior to the regular season. How will that play out?

Exum is also eligible for a rookie extension but it’s difficult to see the Jazz pursuing that option, given Exum’s uneven play this season. Hood is a tougher call.

The starting shooting guard is an above-average 3-point shooter, and those players are always at a premium. Hood had a solid second season and got off to a good start this season in his third year. But he was nagged by a knee injury and his production plummeted. He wasn’t much of a factor in the postseason, averaging 8.9 PPG and shooting 26% on 3-point attempts.

The prudent approach would be to let Hood prove he can stay healthy and be more productive next season, then try to re-sign him when he’s eligible to become a restricted free agent.

4. Boris Diaw has a $7.5MM team option. Should the Jazz pick it up?

The veteran forward retained a rotation role most of the season but didn’t add much from a statistical standpoint — 4.6 PPG and 2.2 RPG in 17.6 MPG while shooting 24.7% from long range. Diaw wants to remain in the league and his salary isn’t all that much for a rotation player.

However, it’s unlikely that the team will keep Diaw, whose salary becomes guaranteed if he’s on the roster July 15th. They can explore other avenues to fortify their frontcourt and they also hope to get more out of Derrick Favors and Trey Lyles next season.

5. The Jazz have some flexibility in the draft, with two first-rounders and a pair of second-rounders. What should they do with those picks?

The two first-rounders are late in the round — Nos. 24 and 30. The extra first-rounder comes courtesy of the Warriors, while the additional second-round pick will be handed over by the Pistons.

The Jazz could choose to package those first-round picks and move up to a better spot, or deal one of them as part of a package to acquire a proven player or a potentially better pick in the future.

If they do not trade either of the first-rounders, one of them will likely be a draft-and-stash prospect. It’s highly unlikely the Jazz will hold onto all four picks, unless they completely strike out on the trade market.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Jazz financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Rudy Gobert ($21,224,719)
Derrick Favors ($12,000,000)
Alec Burks ($10,845,506)
Joe Johnson ($10,505,000)
Dante Exum ($4,992,385)
Trey Lyles ($2,441,400)
Rodney Hood ($2,386,864)
Joel Bolomboy ($1,312,611)
Total: $65,708,485

Player Options

Gordon Hayward ($16,736,710)
Total: $16,736,710

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Boris Diaw ($7,500,000)¹
Raul Neto ($1,471,382)
Total: $8,971,382

Restricted Free Agents

Joe Ingles ($2,687,500 qualifying offer / $4,085,000 cap hold)
Total: $4,085,000

Cap Holds

Gordon Hayward ($24,109,710) — If player option is declined
George Hill ($15,200,000)
Shelvin Mack ($4,623,335)
No. 24 overall pick ($1,579,440)
Jeff Withey ($1,471,382)
No. 30 overall pick ($1,394,520)
Total: $48,378,387

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $30,686,325

With their eight guaranteed contracts, cap holds for two first-round picks, and a pair of cap charges for empty roster spots, the Jazz would have a team salary of $70,313,675. However, in that scenario, Utah would have to renounce Hayward, Hill, Ingles, and the rest of their free agents, in addition to waiving Diaw and Neto. So that’s probably an outcome the club will try to avoid. Re-signing Hayward and/or Hill would eat up most or all of Utah’s potential cap room.

Footnotes:

Diaw’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Oklahoma City Thunder

May 15th, 2017 at 8:57am CST by ChrisCrouse

Russell Westbrook received an opportunity to be the clear leader of a team for the first time in his career this past season and he delivered one of the greatest statistical seasons in recent memory. He averaged a triple-double, something that hasn’t been done since Oscar Robinson accomplished the feat in 1962, and he’s likely to take home the MVP award as a result.

The Thunder remained a major story this season because of the milestone, but they were clearly not legitimate title contenders; Kevin Durant‘s departure removed them from that elite class. Westbrook was able to put up numbers post-Durant, but he was unable to elevate the team beyond the first round of the NBA playoffs. His season ended at the hands of the Rockets in a series that highlighted team play over individualism.

Here are five questions facing the Thunder as they enter the offseason…

1. How will the front office upgrade the roster around Westbrook?

A lack of flexibility plagues GM Sam Presti, and the roster is filled with over-priced ancillary parts.

Extensions for Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo kick in this summer and for the next four years, the team will pay on average $46MM per season for two players who are unlikely to ever make an All-Star team. Enes Kanter, who saw a total of 45 minutes of playing time this postseason, will take home nearly $18MM during the 2017/18 campaign and Kyle Singler, who owned a paltry 5.9 player efficiency rating this season, will eat up nearly $4.7MM.

In all, the Thunder have roughly $110MM in guaranteed salaries on the books for the 2017/18 season against an estimated $101MM salary cap. The team owns the No. 21 overall pick in the upcoming draft and it will have the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, as well as a trade exception worth approximately $4.9MM, available for use. Those tools don’t inspire much hope for an improved roster and with the team’s lack of flexibility, making substantial changes will require Presti to perform some wizardry.

2. Which of their own free agents will the Thunder retain?

Oklahoma City has Bird rights for Taj Gibson and Nick Collison, so it can go over the cap to retain their services, and it can match any offer that restricted free agent Andre Roberson receives. Despite the ability to keep all three, the Thunder will likely see at least one of their players sign elsewhere due to the team’s financials. The luxury tax line is expected to come in around $121MM next season and it’s hard to envision the front office going into tax territory for a team that isn’t a legitimate title contender.

Collison has been with the team since he was drafted in 2003. He played in just 20 games this past season and it wouldn’t be surprising if the team brought him back on a minimum salary deal.

Presti recently said that if another team extends Roberson an offer, it “decreases the chances” that he returns. He and Gibson will likely each see new deals with annual salaries in the eight-figure range which means it could come down to keeping one or the other. Bringing them both back will certainly take the Thunder over the tax line, though they have until the end of next season to shed salary and duck back under it, should they take that route.

3. Can Presti re-balance the roster?

Five of the Thunder’s top 10 players this past season belonged in the frontcourt. Adams and Kanter can’t play meaningful minutes alongside each other in the league’s new pace-and-space environment. Gibson and Domantas Sabonis arguably are best-suited to play the five in small ball lineups while Jerami Grant has the potential to be a solid stretch four, but he’ll need frontcourt minutes to hone his skills.

The team needs help on the wing and in the backcourt behind Westbrook. Simply letting Gibson walk to free up frontcourt minutes will only address half of the problem. The franchise must find a way to turn its frontcourt depth into wing and backcourt talent.

4. Who will be traded?

A Kanter trade seems likely. During the team’s playoff series against the Rockets, coach Billy Donovan appeared to mouth “can’t play Kanter” to his assistant coach after the former No. 3 overall pick failed to executive a defensive assignment. The big man thrived offensively this season, but he struggled mightily on the defensive end (0nly three centers were worse than Kanter on that end of the floor, per ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus).

Centers who don’t protect the rim don’t have a ton of value in the modern NBA, and Kanter’s inflated salary only compounds the issue of finding a decent return on the trade market. However, getting back a rotation player at a position of need may be enough for the franchise and at least one team should see that price tag as a reasonable haul for the 24-year-old center.

5. Can the Thunder sign Westbrook to another extension?

The most important objective for the Thunder heading into the offseason is getting Westbrook to sign on the dotted line for the second consecutive year. Normally, teams cannot sign players to extensions in back-to-back seasons. However, the Thunder can lock up Westbrook for an additional five seasons via a provision in the new CBA that was specifically designed for him and James Harden.

The new agreement will grandfather the pair of MVP candidates into the pool of players eligible for the new designated player extension since their respective teams wouldn’t have known this tool would be available when they signed the players to extensions last summer.

Westbrook declared that Oklahoma City is where he wants to be and the team has said it hopes to keep him there. The UCLA product could reach free agency in 2018 should he remain on his current deal. That means this offseason is essentially the only one the franchise has to upgrade the talent around him before he has an opportunity to flirt with other clubs.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Thunder financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Russell Westbrook ($28,530,608)
Steven Adams ($22,471,911)
Victor Oladipo ($21,000,000)
Enes Kanter ($17,884,176)
Alex Abrines ($5,725,000)
Kyle Singler ($4,666,500)
Doug McDermott ($3,294,994)
Domantas Sabonis ($2,550,000)
Ronnie Price ($2,442,455) — Waived
Josh Huestis ($1,471,382)
Total: $110,037,026

Player Options

None

Team Options

Jerami Grant ($1,524,305)
Total: $1,524,305

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Semaj Christon ($1,312,611)¹
Total: $1,312,611

Restricted Free Agents

Andre Roberson ($4,588,840 qualifying offer / $5,457,681 cap hold)
Total: $5,457,681

Cap Holds

Taj Gibson ($13,425,000)
Nick Collison ($7,125,000)
Norris Cole ($1,471,382)
No. 21 overall pick ($1,785,000)
Total: $23,806,382

Trade Exceptions

Ersan Ilyasova TPE ($4,936,529) — Expires 11/1/17

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: –$12,453,256

With nine guaranteed salaries, the cap hold for their first-rounder, and two empty roster charges, the Thunder are carrying $113,453,256 in projected salary for 2017/18, and that’s assuming they renounce all their free agents, including Roberson. They won’t have cap room.

Footnotes:

Christon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 8.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Chicago Bulls

May 13th, 2017 at 7:45pm CST by Arthur Hill

Whether “Three Alphas” were too many or too few, this season didn’t turn out the way the Bulls hoped when they signed Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo to team with Jimmy Butler. After spending much of the year teetering on the edge of disaster, Chicago put together a late-season surge to claim the East’s final playoff spot.

Now the Bulls have to decide if they want to go through it all again. There’s no guarantee that Wade, Rondo or Butler will still be in Chicago next season, but there’s also a decent chance that they might all come back. If they do return, the Bulls need to spend the summer finding the right pieces to put around them, something that never happened this season. The other option is a complete rebuilding project, which some in the front office reportedly favor, but which Bulls fans may not be ready to accept.

Here are five key questions as Chicago embarks on an unpredictable offseason:

1. Is Butler a franchise player?

It’s not often you hear an All-Star-level professional athlete get upset about a preposition, but Butler reportedly become angry when VP of basketball operations John Paxson said, “We are building with Jimmy right now.” Butler planned to make it clear in a post-season meeting with management that he is the type of player to build around, not just with.

Regardless of the wording, Butler is the key to Chicago’s future. He is under contract for the next two seasons at nearly $18.7MM and $19.9MM before entering an option year in 2019/20. So the Bulls can try to piece together a title contender, or they can trade him and start rebuilding. The Celtics, who may own the top pick in this year’s draft, were very interested last summer, as were the Timberwolves, who are run by Butler’s former Chicago coach, Tom Thibodeau.

The Bulls have a lot of dominoes that could fall in a lot of different directions this offseason, but the decision that will affect all others is whether to blow up the current team and take the best deal for Butler or keep him as the centerpiece to build around (or with).

2. What could be better than $23.8MM?

That’s the question facing Wade, who will make that salary from the Bulls next season if he doesn’t opt out. The dilemma facing Wade is where else could he go and would anybody be willing to pay him more? He was one of the beneficiaries of last summer’s league-wide spending spree, which might continue this year as the salary cap rises another $7MM. But Wade turned 35 in January and has the wear and tear of 14 NBA seasons. He played just 60 games this year and his scoring average of 18.3 points per game was the lowest since he was a rookie.

Taking his talents back to South Beach might make for a touching story, but it would force the Heat to either give up on signing free agents Dion Waiters and James Johnson or find a way to trade some other salary. We can assume that Wade would only want to join a contending team, but there are few contenders with the cap space to offer a near-max deal to a 35-year-old who may not be a difference maker any more.

3. Rondo: Another year, another team?

After spending nearly the first decade of his career in Boston, Rondo has become an NBA journeyman. He was traded to Dallas midway through the 2014/15 season, then spent one season in Sacramento and another in Chicago. He could be on the move again if the Bulls don’t want to cough up $13.397MM on a contract that only has a $3MM guarantee through June 30th.

It seemed like an obvious decision back in January when Rondo was pulled from the rotation and had to work out at a local school to stay in shape. However, that benching experience lasted just five games and Rondo became a productive player again before a playoff wrist injury finished his season. The Bulls appear to have completely changed their stance on Rondo, with Paxson saying in a postseason media session that there’s a “really good chance” he will be kept for another year.

In addition to Rondo’s performance, the Bulls were probably influenced by the failure of several young point guards who were acquired over the past year. Chicago traded for Jerian Grant, Michael Carter-Williams and Cameron Payne, none of whom handled the job better than Rondo.

4. Fire Hoiberg?

That was the demand from the fans at the United Center who hung around for the final minutes of the Game 6 loss to Boston. Head coach Fred Hoiberg has been an embattled figure almost from the time he left Iowa State two summers ahead to take the reins of the Bulls. Butler fired the first salvo in December of 2015, suggesting that Hoiberg wasn’t coaching the team hard enough. Since then, there has been a steady stream of dirty laundry being aired in public, giving the impression that Hoiberg doesn’t have control of his locker room.

On the other hand, the Bulls’ front office still loves Hoiberg, with Paxson saying last week that he will definitely return to coach another season. A rebuilding project could be the best move for Hoiberg’s job security, as he would probably be given time to develop the type of up-tempo, floor-spacing team he envisions. If all the veterans return next season and the Bulls aren’t winning, Hoiberg’s coaching seat could get very hot very quickly.

5. Are two Paxsons better than one?

“Subtle” front office changes are reportedly being considered in Chicago, which could result in more power for Paxson, along with a role for his brother Jim, a former GM with the Cavaliers. John Paxson and GM Gar Forman are both believed to be safe, as the Reinsdorf family still has faith in them, even if many Bulls fans do not after winning 42 and 41 games in successive seasons.

No matter who gets to make the decisions, there are a lot of them to be faced. Without counting Wade, Chicago has five significant free agents in Carter-Williams, Nikola Mirotic, Cristiano Felicio, Anthony Morrow and Joffrey Lauvergne. Wade’s fate may be out of the hands of the front office, but the choices on Butler and Rondo aren’t. The wind could blow either way this summer in the Windy City. It’s time to choose a direction.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Bulls financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Jimmy Butler ($18,696,918)
Robin Lopez ($13,788,500)
Rajon Rondo ($3,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
Cameron Payne ($2,203,440)
Denzel Valentine ($2,186,400)
Jerian Grant ($1,713,840)
Bobby Portis ($1,516,320)
Paul Zipser ($1,312,611)
Isaiah Canaan ($200,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.²
Total: $44,618,029

Player Options

Dwyane Wade ($23,800,000)
Total: $23,800,000

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Rajon Rondo ($10,397,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Isaiah Canaan ($1,377,230) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.²
Total: $11,774,230

Restricted Free Agents

Nikola Mirotic ($7,228,063 qualifying offer / $10,986,655 cap hold)
Michael Carter-Williams ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $7,958,815 cap hold)
Joffrey Lauvergne ($2,137,149 qualifying offer / $3,248,466 cap hold)
Cristiano Felicio ($1,671,382 qualifying offer / $1,671,382 cap hold)
Total: $23,865,318

Cap Holds

Dwyane Wade ($27,840,000) — If player option is declined
Anthony Morrow ($6,627,200)
No. 16 overall pick ($2,247,480)
Total: $36,714,680

Trade Exceptions

Taj Gibson TPE ($5,462,000) — Expires 2/23/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $50,872,031

With only two sizable guaranteed contracts on their books for next season, the Bulls could clear a significant chunk of cap room. However, it would require waiving Rondo and Canaan, not to mention renouncing all their exceptions and free agents, including Wade (assuming he turns down his player option). In that scenario, the Bulls’ remaining guaranteed salary, the cap hold for their first-round pick, and a few cap charges for empty roster spots would total $50,127,969.

Footnotes:

Rondo’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
Canaan’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Memphis Grizzlies

May 12th, 2017 at 4:57pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies entered the 2016/17 season with high expectations, having hired David Fizdale to replace former head coach Dave Joerger and having locked up Chandler Parsons to a lucrative new four-year contract. However, 2016/17 looked a lot like 2015/16 for the Grizzlies, who increased their win total from 42 to 43 and managed to take the Spurs to six games in the first round instead of four.

In Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, Memphis has two cornerstone pieces, both of whom were at their best this past season, establishing new career-highs in scoring. But the Grizzlies have been unable to find the right complementary players necessary to take the next step — or at least have been unable to keep those players healthy.

Here are five questions facing the Grizzlies as they enter the offseason…

1. Can the Grizzlies count on Chandler Parsons to be a legit contributor?

A year ago, the Mavericks decided not to bring back Parsons on a max deal, opting instead for Harrison Barnes. That decision raised some eyebrows at the time, but Dallas knew better than anyone that Parsons’ injury history was a red flag, as the Grizzlies saw first-hand during his first season in Memphis.

Parsons appeared in just 34 games for the Grizzlies in 2016/17, and even when he was able to get on the court, he struggled badly, shooting just 33.8% from the field and 26.9% on three-pointers. Both marks were career worsts by far.

Parsons was a career 38.0% three-point shooter before arriving in Memphis, and if he can regain his old form, he’d be an ideal threat on the wing to help take the scoring load off Conley and Gasol. But if Parsons continues to battle injuries, his contract – which is guaranteed for $72MM+ over the next three years – will be an albatross on Memphis’ cap, limiting the team’s flexibility to add other pieces.

2. Is this the end of an era for Zach Randolph and/or Tony Allen?

Randolph and Allen didn’t start their respective NBA careers in Memphis, but it’s hard to imagine them playing anywhere else at this point. Randolph was traded to the Grizzlies way back in 2009, and Allen signed with the club as a free agent a year later. The duo has helped epitomize the “Grit ‘n’ Grind” era in Memphis, but they’ll be free agents this summer, and there’s no guarantee they’ll both be back.

For his part, Allen has expressed a strong desire to remain with the Grizzlies, and has indicated he’s not looking to “break the bank” in free agency. The veteran guard has never earned more than about $5.5MM in a season, and deserves a raise, but if he’s willing to take a hometown discount to remain in Memphis, it would help the team re-sign Randolph or add another free agent.

Randolph’s situation is a little more complicated, in part because the power forward who replaced him in the starting lineup this season is also a free agent, which brings us to our next question…

3. Will the Grizzlies re-sign JaMychal Green?

The Grizzlies inserted Green into their starting lineup on a full-time basis in 2016/17, figuring that his skill-set made him a better fit in the frontcourt with Gasol. That bet paid off, as Green enjoyed a modest breakout year, averaging 8.9 PPG and 7.1 RPG with a shooting line of .500/.379/.802.

Those numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, but Green was a reliable and consistent performer in the Grizzlies’ frontcourt, providing solid defense, rebounding, and the ability to hit the occasional outside shot. He’ll turn 27 next month, so unlike Randolph, he’s still very much in his prime, and after earning the minimum salary in 2016/17, he should be in line for a substantial raise as he enters restricted free agency.

The Grizzlies have Green’s Bird rights, meaning they can go over the cap to re-sign him, and they also hold the right of first refusal, allowing them to match another team’s offer sheet. Still, if the Grizzlies commit to a raise for Allen and want to use their mid-level exception to bring in another player, the club may be forced to choose between Green and Randolph unless ownership is willing to approach the tax line.

4. Are Jarell Martin and/or Wade Baldwin ready for larger roles?

If the Grizzlies aren’t able to retain both Randolph and Green, they’ll need to fill a hole in their frontcourt rotation. The most logical in-house candidate for an increased role would be Martin, a 2015 first-round pick who turns 23 later this month. The LSU product looked solid in limited minutes during his rookie season, but failed to take a step forward in his second year, as his field goal percentage dipped from .466 to .384. If Memphis isn’t confident in Martin’s ability to provide productive minutes, that puts more pressure on the team to bring back its two free agent power forwards or to seek outside help.

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have had trouble finding a backup for Conley in recent years, prompting them to use 2016’s 17th overall pick on Baldwin. The rookie guard played more minutes in the D-League than he did in the NBA in his first year, and even his D-League stats weren’t all that impressive — he averaged 12.9 PPG and 5.3 APG with a .433/.311/.748 shooting line in 33 games. If Baldwin isn’t ready to assume backup duties behind Conley, the team may end up targeting a veteran point guard using its MLE.

5. Will Vince Carter finish his career in Memphis?

With Randolph, Allen, and Green all eligible for free agency this offseason, Carter probably won’t be the top priority for the Grizzlies, but the 18-year veteran continues to be a key part of Memphis’ rotation. He averaged 24.6 minutes per game for the club in 2016/17, making 1.5 threes per game (37.8%). He also wants to play for two more seasons.

Presumably, the Grizzlies would love to have Carter back if he’s willing to sign for the minimum. And if a couple of Memphis’ other free agents leave, the team would have the ability to offer him more than the minimum. However, if another team makes a strong pitch to Carter when free agency opens on July 1, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him head elsewhere, creating another hole to fill in the Grizzlies’ rotation.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Grizzlies financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Mike Conley ($28,530,608)
Chandler Parsons ($23,112,004)
Marc Gasol ($22,642,350)
Brandan Wright ($5,955,760)
Troy Daniels ($3,408,520)
James Ennis ($3,028,410)
Wade Baldwin ($1,874,400)
Jarell Martin ($1,471,382)
Deyonta Davis ($1,312,611)
Andrew Harrison ($1,312,611)
Jamaal Franklin ($163,296) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $92,811,952

Player Options

None

Team Options

Wayne Selden ($1,312,611)
Total: $1,312,611

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

JaMychal Green ($2,820,497 qualifying offer / $2,820,497 cap hold)
Total: $2,820,497

Cap Holds

Zach Randolph ($15,542,168)
Tony Allen ($10,460,674)
Vince Carter ($8,101,708)
Wayne Selden ($1,312,611) — If team option is declined
Total: $35,417,161

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $6,556,818

With no cap hold for a first-round draft pick to worry about, the Grizzlies would have $94,443,182 on their books if they only kept their players on guaranteed salaries, plus a pair of empty roster cap charges. In that scenario though, their projected cap room would be less than the mid-level exception, and it would mean renouncing free agents like Green, Randolph, Allen, and Carter. As such, Memphis is far more likely to stay over the cap and make an effort to re-sign at least a couple of those players.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Atlanta Hawks

May 10th, 2017 at 4:53pm CST by Luke Adams

It was an up-and-down season for the Hawks, who kicked off the post-Al Horford era last fall by winning nine of their first 11 games, then losing 10 of their next 11. The team went through several more swings throughout the season, including dropping seven straight games in March while battling for playoff position, and ultimately fell to the Wizards in the first round of the playoffs.

There were some positive signs worth taking away from the 2016/17 campaign, including the development of Dennis Schroder, who improved many of his per-minute averages and his field goal percentage while taking on a significantly larger role. However, Kent Bazemore failed to make similar strides after inking a lucrative four-year deal, and notable free agent addition Dwight Howard grew frustrated with his role down the stretch.

Here are five questions facing the Hawks as they enter the offseason…

1. Which direction are the Hawks headed?

Back in January, Atlanta sent Kyle Korver to the Cavaliers for a future first-round pick and appeared ready to continue to trade players in contract years, including Paul Millsap. However, just days after moving Korver, the Hawks pulled Millsap off the trade market, telling him he wouldn’t be going anywhere.

Korver, a free-agent-to-be in his mid-30s, wasn’t a core piece for the Hawks, but he was still the sort of player who could have helped the team in a playoff series. As such, it was odd that Atlanta would deal him for a future piece and then decide to take a win-now approach anyway.

Coming off a two-year stretch in which its regular-season win total has dipped from 60 to 48 to 43, the franchise will have to be more decisive in determining which direction it wants to go this summer. Is this still a win-now roster, or is it time to take a step back and retool? Front office changes may help in that regard, as there were reports that GM Wes Wilcox and president Mike Budenholzer didn’t see eye-to-eye on the Hawks’ direction. They’ve both been re-assigned and won’t have as much say in personnel decisions, which raises a new question…

2. Who will be making decisions in the front office?

The Hawks’ search for a new head of basketball operations is said to still be in the “infancy stage,” though names like Joe Dumars, David Griffin, and Troy Weaver have been mentioned as possible candidates.

Unlike the Magic, who dismissed their top two decision-makers and installed an assistant GM in the interim role, the Hawks didn’t fire anyone — they simply re-assigned Wilcox, removed Budenholzer’s president title, and kept the rest of their front office staff in place, as far as we know.

That will create an interesting dynamic for the executive the Hawks eventually hire. Will he be able to bring in his own people, or will club ownership expect him to keep the current front office group relatively intact? The Hawks have also said Budenholzer will still have a voice in basketball operations — how loud will that voice be, and will it undercut the new exec’s authority?

3. Will Paul Millsap be back?

A year after losing Horford to the Celtics, the Hawks have another All-Star big man set to hit the open market, and Millsap’s decision will play a large part in determining Atlanta’s approach to the rest of the offseason.

The former second-round pick is coming off another strong season, having averaged a career-best 18.1 PPG, and the Hawks can’t really afford to lose another All-Star for nothing. But the team will have to very careful about investing heavily in Millsap, who is 32 years old and will be eligible for a maximum salary of about $35MM in 2017/18.

The moving pieces in the front office shouldn’t impact the Millsap negotiations significantly, since he’s expected to negotiate directly with owner Tony Ressler anyway, according to one recent report. That’s not all that uncommon for a player of Millsap’s caliber, who will likely be in line for a maximum salary deal or something close to it, but it will create a somewhat unusual situation as the Hawks seek out a GM/president. Rather than Atlanta’s head of basketball ops negotiating with the team’s top free agent and going to ownership for approval, the new hire will likely have to be on board with Ressler’s decision on Millsap.

4. Will the Hawks try to re-sign their other free agents besides Millsap?

Millsap isn’t the only key player eligible for free agency this summer in Atlanta. Ersan Ilyasova, Kris Humphries, Mike Muscala, Jose Calderon, and Thabo Sefolosha will be unrestricted free agents, while Tim Hardaway will be eligible for restricted free agency. Not all those players will be in the Hawks’ plans going forward, but I’d expect the team to make an effort to bring back at least a couple of them.

Hardaway, in particular, was an important piece for the 2016/17 team, averaging a career-high 14.5 PPG and making 35.7% of his three-point attempts. Outside of Korver, no Hawk made more outside shots per game than Hardaway (1.9 3PG), so the club will need to find a way to add an outside threat if he doesn’t return.

5. Does Dwight Howard remain in Atlanta’s long-term plans?

Howard’s Hawks homecoming was a nice story last year, but the glow wore off as the season progressed, with the eight-time All-Star complaining in his exit interview about his reduced role.

It will be interesting to see how the Hawks’ new head of basketball operations views Howard, who is under contract for two more guaranteed years at a rate of nearly $24MM per season. The veteran center remains a useful rebounder and defender, but his salary and his desire to be more of an offensive threat complicate his value. If Atlanta doesn’t move Howard this summer, the team will have to find a way to keep him happy going forward, since he’s eating up a sizable chunk of cap room for the next couple years.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Hawks financially:

Guaranteed Salary

Dwight Howard ($23,500,000)
Kent Bazemore ($16,910,113)
Dennis Schroder ($15,500,000)
Malcolm Delaney ($2,500,000)
Taurean Prince ($2,422,560)
Mike Dunleavy Jr. ($1,662,500) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
DeAndre’ Bembry ($1,567,200)
Total: $64,062,373

Player Options

Paul Millsap ($21,472,407)
Total: $21,472,407

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Mike Dunleavy Jr. ($3,512,500) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
Ryan Kelly ($1,577,230)²
Total: $5,089,730

Restricted Free Agents

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,588,840 qualifying offer / $5,704,013 cap hold)
Total: $5,704,013

Cap Holds

Paul Millsap ($30,108,050) — If player option is declined
Ersan Ilyasova ($12,600,000)
Thabo Sefolosha ($7,315,000)
Kris Humphries ($5,200,000)
No. 19 overall pick ($1,936,920)
Jose Calderon ($1,471,382)
Mike Muscala ($1,471,382)
Total: $60,102,734

Trade Exceptions

Mike Scott TPE ($3,333,334) — Expires 2/23/18
Mo Williams TPE ($2,194,500) — Expires 1/18/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $30,922,632

By waiving their players without fully guaranteed contracts and renouncing all their exceptions and free agents (including Millsap), the Hawks would be left with six players on guaranteed deals, a cap hold for their first-round pick, and cap charges for empty roster spots totaling $70,077,368. That would give the club nearly $31MM in cap room, but if Atlanta wants to make an effort to re-sign Millsap, that space would go away — Millsap’s cap hold exceeds $30MM on its own.

Footnotes:

Dunleavy’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.
Kelly’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 7.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.