Free Agent Stock Watch Rumors

2024 Free Agent Stock Watch: Central Division

March 16th, 2024 at 3:58pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2024 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of players from the Central Division.

Patrick Williams, F, Bulls

2023/24: $9,835,881
2024/25: RFA
Stock: Neutral

The Bulls are in a tricky spot with Williams, whose season ended early when it was announced in February that he would undergo foot surgery that would sideline him for the remainder of ’23/24. He’ll be a restricted free agent if Chicago gives him a $12.97MM qualifying offer, which should be a lock.

Still just 22 years old, Williams is a former No. 4 overall pick who has shown glimpses of tantalizing two-way upside over his first four seasons. The problem is, those glimpses have been fleeting and have never been sustained for a prolonged period of time.

In fairness to Williams, injuries have certainly played a role in his up-and-down play — while he played 71 games as a rookie and all 82 games in 2022/23, he was limited to just 17 games in ’21/22 due to a wrist injury and only made 43 appearances this season due to foot and ankle issues.

I’m sure the Bulls would have loved for Williams to have a breakout season in ’23/24 and cement his place as a cornerstone to build around going forward. But his averages — 10.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 0.9 SPG and 0.8 BPG on .443/.399/.788 shooting in 43 games (27.3 MPG) — were basically in line with his career numbers. Not better or worse, just neutral.

Williams has a high ceiling on both ends of the court due to his size, length, athleticism and skills. His production hasn’t matched his talent level to this point though, and there are a wide range of outcomes for what his next contract could look like, depending on how much external interest he draws as a RFA.

Isaac Okoro, G/F, Cavaliers

2023/24: $8,920,795
2024/25: RFA
Stock: Up

Okoro was selected with the No. 5 overall pick in 2020 — right after Williams. And as with Williams, Okoro showed glimpses of being a productive rotation regular for Cleveland during his first three seasons.

So why is Okoro’s stock up and Williams’ stuck in neutral? The answer is subjective of course, but part of it has to do with expectations.

After playing a career-low 21.7 minutes per game last season, Okoro is up to 27.2 MPG in ’23/24, and he has played well both as a starter and as a reserve. Overall, he’s averaging 9.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.0 APG and 0.9 SPG on .498/.399/.686 shooting in 57 games, including 34 starts.

The 23-year-old has improved in the area most critical to his development: three-point shooting. His 39.9% mark from deep is a career high, and he’s Cleveland’s best perimeter defender.

Like Williams, Okoro will be a restricted free agent in the offseason if he’s tendered a qualifying offer. Given the Cavs’ salary cap situation, I don’t expect him to receive much more than the mid-level exception, which is projected to be worth about $13.8MM annually on a four-year deal.

Okoro’s future with Cleveland was looking a little shaky last summer after the team acquired Max Strus and re-signed Caris LeVert. But he has become more decisive and effective on offense on top of being an already-strong defender, and I’d be very surprised if the Cavs didn’t keep him around in the offseason.

Jae Crowder, F, Bucks

2023/24: $3,196,448 (minimum salary; $2,019,706 cap hit)
2024/25: UFA
Stock: Down

Now in his 12th NBA season, Crowder has far exceeded the careers of most second-round picks (he was selected No. 34 overall back in 2012). But he also appears to be at the tail end of his career.

The 33-year-old’s lengthy holdout with Phoenix last season was one of the more bizarre decisions for a player who was about to become a free agent. He was eventually moved to Milwaukee — his preferred destination — but at a significant cost: he made $10.2MM in ’22/23, and re-signed with the Bucks on a one-year, minimum-salary contract last summer.

Crowder hasn’t shown anything this year to prove he’s worth more than the veteran’s minimum going forward, averaging 6.1 PPG and 3.4 RPG on .421/.353/.692 shooting. He has only appeared 36 games (23.8 MPG), having missed 31 games early in the season after suffering a left adductor and abdominal tear, which required surgery.

Perhaps things will change if Crowder has a strong playoff performance, but to my eyes, he’s at least a half-step slower on defense than he used to be, and that was always his calling card. At his age, it’s rare for that trend to reverse.

Jalen Smith, F/C, Pacers

2023/24: $5,043,773
2024/25: $5,417,386 player option
Stock: Up

Smith, who turns 24 years old today (happy birthday), is actually the third former lottery pick from 2020 on this list, as he was selected No. 10 overall in the same draft as Williams and Okoro. However, he has had a much different NBA path than his fellow draftees.

Smith didn’t play much for the team that selected him, Phoenix, and the Suns declined their third-year team option on his rookie scale contract in 2021. He was traded to Indiana in February 2022, eventually re-signing with the Pacers on a three-year, $15.1MM deal with a player option for the final season.

In 2022/23, which was Smith’s first full season with the Pacers, it seemed like the team was a little unsure about how best to utilize him. He opened the season as the starting power forward, but it was an awkward fit on both ends of the court, and he was eventually moved to the bench, mostly playing backup center. Overall, he averaged 9.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG and 0.9 BPG in 68 games (18.8 MPG).

Smith’s counting stats in ’23/24 — 10.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 0.6 BPG in 47 games (17.7 MPG) — are very similar to last season’s. There’s one huge difference though: he has been one of the most efficient offensive players in the NBA.

After posting a below-league-average 56.5 true shooting percentage in ’22/23, Smith is at 70.7 TS% in ’23/24, more than 12% above league average. He’s shooting 71.8% on twos and 44.2% on threes.

Given his elite offensive efficiency, decent defense, and age, it’s hard to imagine he’ll pick up his $5.42MM player option. The big man market is pretty thin in 2024, and Smith is in line for a raise — the two-year, $16MM deal Moritz Wagner signed with Orlando last summer should be his floor.

The Pacers will have cap room and Smith’s Early Bird rights if they want to bring him back. But they also have to pay Pascal Siakam, and third-year center Isaiah Jackson will be entering the final year of his rookie scale deal. Money could be a sticking point in negotiations.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Los Angeles Lakers

March 31st, 2023 at 9:00am CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Lakers players.

Note: We also covered a couple other Lakers earlier this month.

Dennis Schröder, G

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Before the 2022/23 season started, Schröder said he had “unfinished business” with the Lakers after reportedly being unwilling to discuss a lucrative extension in his first stint with the team a couple of seasons ago. The rumored four-year, $80MM offer was never signed, and Schröder instead inked a one-year, $5.9MM contract with Boston in 2021 free agency.

Despite a tepid market in ’21, I was surprised it took Schröder so long to find a team last offseason. He didn’t sign until September, when he was running the show for Germany during EuroBasket, helping lead his national team to a bronze medal.

A reunion with the Lakers has worked out well for both sides, as Schröder has been one of the league’s better bargains on his minimum-salary contract.

The Lakers had an abysmal start this season in part due to injuries to Schröder and Thomas Bryant, who both underwent thumb surgeries right before the season began. The team went just 3-10 in the 13 games they missed (Bryant was traded to Denver at last month’s deadline).

Since he returned, Schröder has only missed one game and the Lakers have gone 34-28 with him in the lineup. He leads L.A. in total minutes played and the team has been better on both ends of the court when he’s playing — and significantly worse when he’s not. He only trails LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves in net rating differential among players with a large sample size.

I’ve been impressed with Schröder’s point-of-attack defense this season. He has also cut down on his turnovers and has generally just been willing to do the little things necessary to win games. He’s not a great three-point shooter (33.8%), but he remains extremely quick and is a very good ball-handler who can create shots and draw fouls. Schröder is also highly accurate on free throws, converting 87% of his looks this season – an important factor when trying to close out games.

The Lakers only have his Non-Bird rights, so they will be limited to offering the 29-year-old 120% of the veteran’s minimum, which would amount to $3.8MM. If the two sides go that route, it would almost certainly be a one-year deal or a two-year pact with a player option. That would give him Early Bird rights in 2024 and make it easier for the Lakers to give him a more lucrative longer-term contract, if they’re so inclined. They could also give him a bigger raise this summer by using one of their exceptions (either the bi-annual or the mid-level).

Rui Hachimura, F

2022/23: $6.26MM
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Down

When the Lakers traded three second-rounders (and Kendrick Nunn) to acquire Hachimura, I don’t think they envisioned him averaging 9.2 points and playing just 22.3 minutes per night, but that’s what he’s put up through 27 games.

The former lottery pick is a talented mid-range scorer, but he’s sort of a one-trick pony in that his game isn’t very well-rounded. His three-point accuracy (33.9%) has been virtually identical to what it was with the Wizards this season (33.7%), which is disappointing.

Hachimura has looked better on defense than I’ve seen in the past, but it’s still merely passable, and he doesn’t always play with a lot of energy. His role has been reduced of late, as he received one healthy scratch and averaged 5.3 PPG and 2.5 RPG in the six contests (16.0 MPG) he did play over the past seven games.

Hachimura’s $7,744,600 qualifying offer isn’t prohibitive, and he’s only 25 years old. Are the Lakers really gung-ho about bringing him back? Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see a huge market for him in restricted free agency based on his relative lack of development over his first four NBA seasons. One report said he might get something around the full mid-level exception, which is projected to start at $11.37MM — I would wish him luck and let him walk at that price.

Troy Brown, G/F

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

There’s nothing about Brown’s game that really jumps out at you, nor do his modest numbers — he’s averaging 7.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG and 1.2 APG in 70 games (45 starts, 24.9 MPG).

What Brown provides is prototypical size on the wing at 6’6″ and 215 pounds and a strong understanding of the game. He can do a little bit of everything, but doesn’t stand out in any one particular area. The 23-year-old is shooting a career-high 37.3% from deep, tries hard on defense, and is an unselfish passer.

Despite giving forth solid effort, Brown isn’t the greatest athlete by NBA standards, and is only around league average on defense. He hasn’t been much of a scoring threat, but the Lakers only really ask him to shoot when he’s open.

As with Schröder, Brown is another player the Lakers added on a minimum deal last summer, so unless they use one of their exceptions, they can only offer him 120% of the minimum using his Non-Bird rights – that would be about $2.77MM.

Could he get more than that from another team? I think something in the $3-6MM range could be in play, but I’m not sure. Either way, he has provided positive value considering his compensation this season, and I would imagine there’s motivation from both sides to bring him back – he’s getting regular minutes, which wasn’t the case the past couple seasons.

Malik Beasley, G/F

2022/23: $15.49MM
2023/24: $16.52MM team option
Stock: Down

Beasley is a long-range shooting specialist and the Lakers rank just 26th in the league in three-point percentage, which is why they traded for him. The problem is, he’s only shooting 35.6% from deep in 2022/23 (34.7% in 20 games with the Lakers), which is his worst conversion rate since he became a rotation regular in ‘18/19.

The 26-year-old is extremely streaky, and perhaps more than any other player on the team’s roster, he was negatively impacted by James’ absence due to a foot injury. LeBron has always been great at finding open shooters and Beasley has by far the best track record on the team as a high-volume outside shooter, despite his down season and inconsistency.

Free agents D’Angelo Russell and Reaves will likely higher on the team’s priority list this offseason than Beasley, and they won’t be cheap. However, it’s convenient to have mid-size contracts like Beasley’s on the roster, and his specialty is certainly more valuable than Hachimura’s.

How Beasley fares for the rest of the season will likely determine whether the Lakers exercise their team option on his deal, because it’s a hefty price tag considering he doesn’t provide a whole lot else beyond shooting and floor spacing. One report indicated the Lakers were likely to pick the option. They could potentially bring him back at a lower annual cost if they decline it, though there’s always a risk another team could swoop in with a better offer in that scenario.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chicago Bulls

March 27th, 2023 at 9:51pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Bulls players.

Coby White, G

2022/23: $7.4MM
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

White is a tricky player to gauge because he’s playing fewer minutes and taking fewer shots, so on the surface his numbers look worse. If you actually watch him play though, it’s clear that he has improved in meaningful ways.

For example, when he entered the league he was basically a low-efficiency gunner who didn’t provide a whole lot else. His ball-handling, decision-making and defense have all improved, and he has a much better feel for making plays within the flow of the game.

White, who was recently praised by head coach Billy Donovan, has seen his name has pop up in trade rumors the past couple seasons, but the fact that the Bulls held onto him through the deadline leads me to believe they’ll give him a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent.

Lonzo Ball might miss all of next season following a third left knee surgery, making guard depth a priority. White just turned 23 years old last month – I think they’ll bring him back.

Nikola Vucevic, C

2022/23: $22MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

Vucevic’s counting stats in 2022/23 (17.5 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 3.3 APG) are virtually identical to last year’s (17.6 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 3.2 APG), but he’s scoring much more efficiently, mostly due to a career-high 58.7% on twos — he’s averaging about the same amount of points on 1.8 fewer shot attempts per game.

The veteran center has always been a quality defensive rebounder, but he is limited in other aspects defensively, particularly when it comes to protecting the paint – among centers who contest five-plus shots at the rim, he allows opponents to shoot 67.9% on those looks, which is the second-worst mark in the league, according to NBA.com. Chicago’s offense has been better when Vucevic is playing, but the team’s defense is significantly worse.

It’s hard to see Vucevic getting much more than his current $22MM salary from the Bulls or any other team. That said, he’s more or less the same player he was when he signed the deal, just four years older, and obviously the Bulls value him, otherwise they wouldn’t have traded for him a couple years ago. Maybe a short-term deal at a similar price could be in play – he will remain extension-eligible until June 30.

Patrick Beverley, G

2022/23: $13MM + prorated minimum
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Beverley’s free agency situation is strange. On one hand, the Bulls have gone 10-5 with him in the starting lineup – a very good mark, particularly for a team that has been wildly inconsistent in 2022/23.

He is an above average rebounder for a player his size (he’s 6’1″), pulling down 5.9 boards in 28 minutes thus far with the Bulls, though that seems unsustainable (it would match his career high from ’16/17). He has also done a very good job taking care of the ball, recording a 4.07-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio with Chicago.

So why is Beverley’s stock down? He is only shooting 34% from deep in ‘22/23 – 31.5% with Chicago thus far – after shooting 34.3% last season. His career rate is 37.4%, but it’s a little concerning that he’s been below average two years in a row, because he isn’t much of a scoring threat otherwise (he’s averaging 6.3 points per game, his lowest total since his rookie year in ‘12/13).

Three other factors are working against him. One, he’s on his fifth team in under a year, having been traded three times before reaching a buyout agreement with Orlando. Second, he’ll turn 35 years old this summer, so it’s hard to see him getting more than a one- or two-year contract.

Finally, he lost his Bird rights when he was bought out, so the Bulls will be limited in what they can offer him – they could give him a 120% raise on his current minimum salary, which would be around $3.1MM, but otherwise they would have to dip into one of their exceptions (mid-level or bi-annual) to give him more than the minimum. I suspect they’ll pursue a younger target with the MLE.

Long story short, there’s no realistic way the Bulls can offer him anything close to the combined $13.8MM he made this season, and I definitely don’t see another team approaching that figure.

Javonte Green, F

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

If you had asked me earlier this season about Green’s stock, I would have said he was owed a raise on his minimum-salary contract – the Bulls have been better with him on the court each of the past two seasons. He brings a much-needed infusion of energy, toughness, and defensive versatility to a team that has been oddly apathetic at times.

The main reason his stock is neutral instead of up is his knee injury, which he has been slow to recover from. He underwent an arthroscopic debridement procedure in January, and it was initially reported that he was expected to miss about a month. Instead, he was out for about two-and-a-half months, and after playing two games last week, he’s on the shelf again.

Donovan said on Sunday that Green has been dealing with discomfort the day after playing, which is troubling. Green punches above his weight due to his explosive athleticism, but he’s only 6’4″ – hopefully this injury doesn’t affect that part of his game, because he’s a limited offensive player. Here’s to hoping he makes a full recovery.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division

March 24th, 2023 at 1:30pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southeast players.

Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Wizards

2022/23: $33.8MM
2023/24: $36MM player option
Stock: Up

I think Porzingis has been the Wizards’ best player this season. You could interpret that as a backhanded compliment since they aren’t very good, but I don’t mean it to be — he’s having a career year.

Through 62 games (32.6 MPG) in 2022/23, the 27-year-old is averaging 23.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, 0.9 SPG and 1.5 BPG on .492/.375/.849 shooting. The points, assists and steals per game represent career highs, and he’s scoring more efficiently than ever, recording career bests in FG%, 2PT% (.556), free throw attempts (6.5 per game), free throws made (5.5) and true shooting percentage (.621).

Porzingis is also playing solid defense, with opponents shooting just 56% at the rim against him, per NBA.com‘s data — a strong mark. He has generally been an active deterrent, and it’s tough to shoot over someone 7’3″.

The biggest question mark surrounding Porzingis has always been his health, as he could surpass the 70-game mark for just the second time in his career this season. Maybe something in the three-year, $105MM range could be within reach – I’d be hesitant to go out four or five years.

Kevin Love, F/C, Heat

2022/23: $28.9MM + $3.1MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Love was the runner-up for Sixth Man of the Year in 2021/22 after putting up 13.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 2.2 APG on .430/.392/.838 shooting in 72 games (22.5 MPG) for Cleveland. He had a solid start this season, averaging 11.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 2.6 APG on .425/.409/.861 shooting in 15 games (21.3 MPG).

Unfortunately, he sustained a thumb injury that impacted his outside shooting – a huge reason why he had been an effective bench piece. Over the following 26 games (19.3 MP), he averaged just 6.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 1.4 APG on .364/.308/.926 shooting. The Cavs subsequently pulled him from the rotation, but he still wanted a chance to play, so the two sides reached a buyout agreement, with Love catching on with the Heat.

In 14 games (21.4 MPG) with Miami, he’s averaging 7.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 2.0 APG on .383/.286/.850 shooting. Love has always been a very good defensive rebounder, and he is a terrific outlet passer. However, he is an overall poor defensive player, he’ll be 35 years old before next season begins, and he has a lengthy injury history.

It’s hard to envision him getting more than a one-year contract in the offseason, and I’d be very surprised if it’s for more than the taxpayer mid-level exception (projected to be $7MM).

Max Strus, G/F, Heat

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Strus is already a success story as an undrafted free agent who originally caught on with Boston and then Chicago on two-way deals before tearing his ACL in December 2019. He worked his way back through the G League and caught on with Miami before ‘20/21, inking another two-way deal.

He impressed the Heat enough to earn a two-year, minimum-salary contract, and had a terrific season in ‘21/22, averaging 10.6 PPG and 3.0 RPG while shooting 41% from deep on high volume in 68 games (23.3 MPG). Strus was so important that he was starting for the Heat in the playoffs as they came very close to making it back to the Finals.

As with Love, Strus started the season well, averaging 15.1 PPG and 3.8 RPG on .460/.378/.864 shooting 15 games (33 MPG). He has been in a prolonged shooting slump for much of the rest of the season though, averaging 10.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 2.3 APG on .387/.328/.892 shooting over the past 57 games (27.9 MPG).

Strus isn’t a great defender, but he’s not a liability. The main reason he plays is to make timely cuts and space the floor. He’s shooting just 34% from three this season.

He’s only 26, so I have no doubt that he will get a multiyear contract and a raise on his minimum salary. But his stock is definitely down compared to last year.

Moritz Wagner, F/C, Magic

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Part of the reason Orlando was comfortable trading Mohamed Bamba at the deadline is that he had been supplanted in the rotation by Wagner, a fifth-year big man who played his college ball at Michigan. Wagner missed the first 18 games of the season while recovering from a foot injury, but has played well since he returned.

A talented, energetic and decisive scorer, Wagner is averaging a career-high 11.1 PPG along with 4.7 RPG on .496/.310/.844 shooting in 51 games (20.2 MPG). He has played well as a fill-in starter, averaging 14.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG and 1.1 SPG on .525/.339/.869 shooting in 17 games (26.7 MPG).

At 6’11” and 245 pounds, Wagner has an interesting blend of ball skills and footwork for a center. He’s quite effective at using pump fakes to drive and spin his way to the basket, frequently drawing fouls. He’s converting 62.8% of his twos and 84.4% of his 3.4 free throw attempts per game, which is why his true shooting percentage is well above average (62.8%) even though he’s only shooting 31% from deep.

The 25-year-old has outplayed his minimum-salary deal, and the Magic have his Bird rights if they want to bring him back. Wagner is not a rim protector and he’s just an OK rebounder. Perhaps something in the range of $5-8MM per season could be within reach.

Kelly Oubre, G/F, Hornets

2022/23: $12.6MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

Oubre brings prototypical size on the wing at 6’7″ with an enormous 7’2″ wingspan. He’s an excellent athlete and excels in the open court.

Through 48 games (32.2 MPG), the 27-year-old is averaging a career-high 20.3 PPG along with 5.2 RPG and 1.4 SPG. He missed a good chunk of time after undergoing hand surgery in January.

The scoring looks nice, but it’s paired with below average efficiency, as Oubre has posted a .431/.319/.760 slash line for a 53.4 TS%. He has also recorded just 54 assists against 819 field goal attempts in ‘22/23, a remarkably low percentage. That isn’t an aberration – he’s only averaged 1.0 APG in 527 career games (25.8 MPG).

As a free agent in 2021, Oubre signed a two-year, $24.6MM contract with the Hornets, with the second year only guaranteed at $5MM. He has spoken multiple times about wanting to remain in Charlotte. I find it hard to believe he’ll get much more than he’s currently making on a short-term deal, but he hasn’t hurt his value either.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Pacific Division

March 17th, 2023 at 2:57pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Pacific players.

Austin Reaves, G/F, Lakers

2022/23: $1.56MM
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

After going undrafted out of Oklahoma in 2021, Reaves initially caught on with the Lakers on a two-way deal, but received a promotion to a standard contract before his rookie season started. He was one of the bright spots in an otherwise disappointing season in Los Angeles, averaging 7.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 1.8 APG on .459/.317/.839 shooting (.600 true shooting percentage) in 61 games (23.2 MPG).

He has been even better in year two – you could easily make the case that he’s been the Lakers’ third-best player in 2022/23. Through 52 games (27.6 MPG), he’s averaging 11.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG and 2.8 APG on an elite .511/.385/.860 shooting line (.667 TS%).

The 24-year-old has a really nice pump fake-and-drive game, which he uses to throw defenders off balance and draw fouls – he’s averaging 3.4 free throw attempts per night, which is quite high considering his usage rate is only 14.7%. Reaves has a feathery soft touch when throwing lobs, has good chemistry with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and has drastically improved defensively in his second season.

Reaves will be a restricted free agent in the offseason. The Lakers were only able to give him a two-year rookie contract after using most of their taxpayer mid-level exception on Kendrick Nunn a couple years ago, so they will hold his Early Bird rights, with a maximum offer of $50.77MM over four years.

Could he get a higher offer than that in free agency? Quite possibly. Rival suitors who want to pry him away would be subject to the Arenas provision, which limits the amount they can offer in years one and two but allows them to include big bump in salary in years three and four. Unless it’s a crazy overpay, I would expect the Lakers to match.

Lonnie Walker IV, G/F, Lakers

2022/23: $6.48MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Walker opened the season as a starter in his first year in Los Angeles, averaging 14.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.4 APG on .455/.384/.875 shooting (.578 TS%) in 32 games (29.8 MPG). Left knee tendinitis sidelined him for 14 consecutive games from late December to late January.

Walker has not started a game since he returned and has averaged just 15.5 MPG in 19 games, recording 8.2 PPG and 1.5 RPG on .417/.292/.867 shooting (.534 TS%). He has received a couple healthy scratches in that span.

Still just 24 years old, Walker is an explosive athlete but he’s just an OK shooter and doesn’t provide much in terms of rebounding, passing or defense. When he’s been on the court, he has a minus-7.2 net rating, the worst among the team’s rotation regulars. When he’s off, the Lakers are plus-3.3.

I’d be pretty surprised if he receives a starting salary at the taxpayer mid-level exception again next season.

Donte DiVincenzo, G, Warriors

2022/23: $4.5MM
2023/24: $4.73MM player option
Stock: Up

I was very surprised at how relatively little money DiVincenzo received in his first free agency foray last summer. I know he was coming off a down season in ’21/22 following left ankle surgery and had particularly struggled with his shot – he posted a .351/.339/.843 shooting line in 42 combined games (24.0 MPG) with Milwaukee and Sacramento (.510 TS%).

Still, he started to play better as the year went on, and he was still solid in other areas (4.0 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.1 SPG). The Kings initially gave him a qualifying offer and then pulled it, with the former No. 17 overall pick receiving part of the taxpayer mid-level from Golden State – he’s actually making less this season than he did in the final year of his rookie contract.

The 26-year-old has certainly earned a raise. He has been invaluable to the Warriors, averaging 9.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.4 APG and 1.3 SPG in 60 games (25 starts, 26.6 MPG).

On top of being a strong defensive player, DiVincenzo has a high basketball IQ, hustles, and is shooting a career-high 40.4% from three-point range to go along with a rock solid 58.8 TS%. The Warriors only have his Non-Bird rights, so it will be very difficult to bring him back unless he really loves playing for them and is willing to accept a team-friendly deal.

Alex Len, C, Kings

2022/23: $3.92MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Len signed a two-year, $7.65MM contract with the Kings as a free agent in 2021. He didn’t play all that well last season, averaging 6.0 PPG and 4.1 RPG while shooting 53.4% from the floor and 65.1% from the line in 39 games (15.9 MPG).

He has barely played at all in ’22/23, appearing in 17 games for a total of 53 minutes. He is the definition of being buried on the depth chart.

It’s hard to see the former No. 5 overall pick getting anything more than the veteran’s minimum as a free agent this summer, assuming he finds a team.

Josh Okogie, G/F, Suns

2022/23: $1.84MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Okogie spent his first four seasons with Minnesota, the team that drafted him 20th overall in 2018. They let him walk after his rookie deal expired, and the 24-year-old was only able to find a veteran’s minimum deal with Phoenix.

The primary reason for that modest deal was Okogie’s limited offensive production. He averaged 6.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG and 1.0 SPG on .403/.275/.758 shooting (.521 TS%) in 244 games (20.6 MPG) with the Wolves.

His stats this season in Phoenix – 7.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 0.8 SPG on .399/.329/.728 shooting (53.5 TS%) in 60 games (17.6 MPG) – aren’t all that different. So why is his stock up?

Since the start of the new year, Okogie is averaging 10.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG and 1.0 SPG on .398/.369/.725 shooting (.547 TS%) in 28 games (24.1 MPG). He has been even better over the past 14 contests, of which he’s started 13 straight (32.4 MPG), averaging 14.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 1.6 SPG on .423/.378/.780 shooting (.580 TS%).

Okogie is a ferocious offensive rebounder and pound-for-pound one of the best athletes in the NBA, which enables him to switch across multiple positions. He is an outstanding defender.

The Nigerian swingman brings a relentless energy and physicality every time he steps on the court, which complements a team that relies heavily on jump shots. I don’t have a good feel for how much he might get on his next contract, but he’s certainly trending in a positive direction.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Atlantic Division

March 11th, 2023 at 1:02pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Atlantic players.

James Harden, G, Sixers

2022/23: $33MM
2023/24: $35.64MM player option
Stock: Up

Harden started to look a little old and out of shape in 2021/22, never quite recovering from a reoccurring hamstring injury originally sustained in late ‘20/21.

His counting stats were still excellent (22.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 10.3 APG, 1.3 SPG), but he lacked burst when driving and shot the ball poorly for his standards, posting a .410/.330/.877 shooting line (58.3% true shooting percentage). 33.0% was a career-low from three, and his FG% and TS% were his lowest marks since his rookie year back in ‘09/10.

Harden wound up taking a “pay cut” in free agency last summer to allow the Sixers to sign P.J. Tucker and Danuel House. However, the contract was only a one-plus-one, so he can opt out of his player option and become a free agent again this summer.

He seemed to be in great shape to open ‘22/23, but unfortunately sustained a foot injury which caused him to miss 14 games. He has looked very good since he returned.

The 33-year-old may no longer be at his peak form, when he led the league in scoring for three straight years from 2017-20, but he’s not far from it. Harden has acclimated nicely to being more of a distributor alongside Joel Embiid, averaging 21.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, a league-leading 10.8 APG and 1.1 SPG on a .448/.397/.874 shooting line (62.2 TS%) through 49 games (36.9 MPG).

39.7% from deep is a career-high for the former league MVP, as is his 3.19-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Advanced stats say he has been among the top 10 or 15 players in the league.

I know many people think the rumors about Harden potentially going back to Houston in the offseason are a negotiating ploy to increase the value of his next deal. I could very well be wrong, but I’m not in that group.

I realize Harden will be 34 in the summer, and the Rockets have a team full of young players. But I really believe he might opt out and sign a four-year, maximum-salary contract with his former team, regardless of how the Sixers do in the playoffs. He just seemed happier there, and the Rockets are motivated to improve because they don’t control their own pick in 2024. We’ll see what happens.

Dewayne Dedmon, C, Sixers

2022/23: Details below
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Dedmon’s financial situation is a little complicated. The Pistons used the stretch provision on his contract back in 2020 after acquiring him from Atlanta, so he will continue to be paid $2.87MM each season by Detroit through 2024/25.

The veteran center had a falling out with Miami and was suspended for a game after knocking a piece of medical equipment onto the court following an argument with the coaching staff. He only played one more game for the Heat before he was moved to San Antonio in a salary dump.

The Spurs subsequently waived Dedmon’s $4.7MM contract, and he signed a rest-of-season deal with Philadelphia for the veteran’s minimum. However, he has yet to appear in a game with his new club after initially being sidelined with hip soreness.

Dedmon posted an abysmal minus-10.4 net rating with the Heat, and his effectiveness was clearly diminished in part due to plantar fasciitis in his foot. If he hopes to find a deal for more than the minimum this summer, the 33-year-old will have to prove he’s healthy and can still contribute at a high level — he’s running out of time to do so.

Jakob Poeltl, C, Raptors

2022/23: $9.4MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Acquired in a deadline deal with San Antonio, Poeltl has gotten off to a great start in his second stint with Toronto, looking very motivated in averaging 14.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 SPG and 1.7 BPG while shooting 69% from the floor and 56.1% from the free throw line through 12 games (28.4 MPG).

The 7’1” big man has provided a jolt in some much-needed areas. He has been particularly adept at finishing on offense and protecting the paint at the other end. Poeltl is also a strong screener and passer, which helps compensate for his lack of shooting.

The 27-year-old is expected to command a salary in the range of $15-20MM per year in free agency this summer. If Poeltl keeps playing at this level, the high end of that range could be within reach, similar to what Jarrett Allen signed a couple years ago with the Cavs (five years, $100MM).

Seth Curry, G, Nets

2022/23: $8.5MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

The younger Curry brother has been one of the league’s top shooters since he started getting semi-regular minutes back in 2015/16, holding a career slash line of .475/.435/.865 in 426 games (206 starts, 24.7 MPG). However, he got off to a slow start in ‘22/23 following offseason ankle surgery, and is having a down year by his standards.

Curry has appeared in 49 of 67 games for the Nets with averages of 9.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG and 1.9 APG in 21.4 MPG. He’s averaging his fewest points, rebounds and minutes per game since ‘18/19, when he was with Portland.

He’s also shooting a career-worst 39.6% from three. It feels very weird saying that’s a low mark, but Curry had never previously shot below 42.2% from deep.

The 32-year-old has always been a poor defensive player, but this is the first time in several years where it feels like his deficiencies on that end have outweighed what he brings on offense – the Nets have statistically been worse on both ends when he’s on the court, with Curry posting a minus-2.8 net rating. The fit hasn’t been ideal either, as they have a few too many players with similar skill sets.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Curry gets a slight raise on his current deal if it’s only for a year or two, but I would be a little surprised if he gets a raise and a three- or four-year contract. As a very undersized shooting guard (6’1″, 185 pounds), he’s probably best suited for a bench role given his distinct strengths and weaknesses.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

March 8th, 2023 at 3:00pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.

Christian Wood, F/C, Mavericks

2022/23: $14.32MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

2022/23 has been a roller coaster season for Wood, whom the Mavs acquired in the offseason for their 2022 first-round pick and expiring contracts. He started the season coming off the bench and was providing quality offensive production, averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG on .550/.402/.688 shooting through 26 games (26.3 MPG).

A handful of days after Maxi Kleber tore his hamstring, Wood was inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 20.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .516/.367/.814 shooting in 16 games (33.4 MPG). The team went 9-7 during that span, but unfortunately Wood sustained a fractured left thumb that sidelined him for eight games.

In 12 games since he returned from injury, Wood has seen his role cut back significantly, averaging 13.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG on .457/.298/.860 shooting in 18.9 minutes per contest. Defensive concerns could be the main culprit, though I haven’t seen that publicly stated as of late.

The 27-year-old heard his name pop up in both extension and trade rumors leading up to the February 9 deadline, but neither came to fruition. He remains eligible for a four-year, $77MM extension until June 30, though that appears increasingly unlikely unless he plays a major role in a deep postseason run.

Kenyon Martin Jr., F, Rockets

2022/23: $1.78MM
2023/24: $1.93MM team option
Stock: Up

The No. 52 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Martin is averaging career highs with 12.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG while shooting a career-best 56.2% from the field through 65 games (26.9 MPG). The high flier is another player who saw his name mentioned in trade rumors early in the season, but obviously Houston decided to keep him.

Considering his team option for next season is only $1.93MM, it seems unlikely that the 22-year-old would enter free agency. So why is he on this list?

As our Luke Adams detailed last month, if the Rockets exercise their option for ‘23/24, Martin would become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. However, if they decline it, he would be a restricted free agent this summer, giving Houston more control. That’s what happened last summer with Martin’s teammate, Jae’Sean Tate.

Martin has appeared in every game this season for the Rockets, including 24 consecutive starts (32 total). If he starts nine of Houston’s 17 remaining games, he would reach the starter criteria and increase his qualifying offer to $5,216,324.

Dillon Brooks, G/F, Grizzlies

2022/23: $11.4MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Brooks has always faced criticism for his poor shot selection. However, he has never been this inefficient — his 48.3% true shooting percentage is the second-worst mark in the NBA among 197 qualifying players, only ahead of Detroit’s Killian Hayes (44.7%).

There isn’t one particularly area to point to, because he’s struggling from everywhere: 51.6% at the rim (ninth percentile), 38.3% from mid-range (26th percentile), and 31.9% from three-point range (24th percentile), per DunksAndThrees.com.

On the other hand, Brooks is an outstanding defensive player who is tasked with guarding the league’s best perimeter scorers. The Grizzlies have been better with him on the court in each of the past three seasons.

For better or worse, a big part of the team’s identity is tied to Brooks’ brash attitude and confidence. At 27 years old, he’s theoretically in the middle of his prime. He will get a raise on his current deal, but he hasn’t helped himself on the offensive end of the court.

Tre Jones, G, Spurs

2022/23: $1.78MM
2023/24: RFA ($5.22MM qualifying offer)
Stock: Up

The No. 41 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Jones rarely saw the court in his first season, appearing in 37 games with an average of 7.3 MPG. He saw more action last season, but he was still limited to a reserve role, appearing in 69 games with averages of 6.0 PPG and 3.4 APG in 16.6 MPG.

After trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason, San Antonio had a glaring hole at point guard. Jones has filled that void, averaging career highs in points (12.5), rebounds (3.6), assists (6.2), steals (1.3) and minutes (29.1) per game.

While he has struggled with scoring efficiency (51.2% TS, ninth-worst in the league among qualifying players), Jones does a very good job of taking care of the ball (3.67-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he’s only 23 years old, and he’s on a minimum contract. He has certainly outplayed that deal.

Jones has already met the starter criteria, which increased the value of his qualifying offer to $5,216,324. There’s an excellent chance the Spurs extend that offer to him and make him a restricted free agent.

Jaxson Hayes, F/C, Pelicans

2022/23: $6.8MM
2023/24: RFA ($7.74MM qualifying offer)
Stock: Down

A former lottery pick (No. 8 overall in 2019), Hayes has yet to live up to his draft status. He has only appeared in 38 games this season with a career-low 13.6 minutes per night, a strong sign that the Pelicans don’t view him as a long-term fit on the roster.

Hayes won’t turn 23 until May, so he has time to possibly turn his career around. He is 6’11” and is a strong run-and-jump athlete. His shot isn’t broken by any means – he’s at 72.0% from the line for his career, a solid mark for a big man.

He just looks lost on the court way too often, frequently making careless, head-scratching mistakes at inopportune times, things that drive coaches crazy. The odds of New Orleans extending Hayes a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent are very low, so he will likely hit unrestricted free agency this summer.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

March 6th, 2023 at 4:47pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.

Jordan Clarkson, G, Jazz

2022/23: $13.34MM
2023/24: $14.26MM player option
Stock: Up

Clarkson is expected to decline his player option to land a long-term contract in free agency, which makes a lot of sense. He’s averaging career highs in points (20.8) and assists (4.4) per game and has matched his career best in rebounds per night (4.0) while posting a .444/.338/.816 shooting slash line (.558 true shooting percentage).

The veteran guard will turn 31 years old in the offseason, so this might be his last chance to land a major multiyear payday. He is an all-around poor defensive player, but his play-making has improved this season, and his shot-creation ability is widely coveted.

I don’t have a great feel for how much Clarkson might get in free agency. His representatives could point to the contracts signed by Anfernee Simons (four years, $100MM) and Jordan Poole (four years, $123MM guaranteed) last summer, for example – Clarkson is much older and has less upside, but his strengths, weaknesses and production are fairly similar to those players.

If I were a GM, I would be very hesitant to pay Clarkson that much money, but he has earned a raise on his current deal, that much is certain.

Udoka Azubuike, C, Jazz

2022/23: $2.17MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

A former first-round pick (No. 27 overall in 2020), Azubuike has unfortunately dealt with a few significant ankle injuries in his brief NBA career, which has impacted his development. Utah declined its fourth-year team option on the 23-year-old big man before the season started, sending a strong signal that he wasn’t in the team’s long-term plans.

Azubuike has only appeared in 26 games this season for an average of 5.9 minutes per contest. It’s hard to get much of a read on someone who plays so little, but he is a limited offensive player who struggles at the free throw line (he shot 41.6% in four college seasons and is at 55.2% on very low volume in the NBA).

The remaining 17 games will essentially serve as an audition for Azubuike. How he performs — and if he gets minutes — could very well determine whether or not he’s able to land a guaranteed contract in the offseason. The odds of that happening seem lower than 50/50 at the moment.

Naz Reid, C, Timberwolves

2022/23: $1.93MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Reid’s per 36 numbers have been quite consistent in each of his four seasons. So why is his stock up?

The primary reason is he’s shown that his game is scalable, meaning his production doesn’t suffer with more playing time. The 23-year-old is averaging 16.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.0 block in 11 games as a fill-in starter (26.1 minutes), with the team going 6-5 in those contests. Playing well against reserves is one thing, but doing it over the course of a full game against starters is something entirely different.

Reid has slimmed down considerably since going undrafted out of LSU in 2019 and has shown that he is a quality backup center capable of spot starts. Something in the range of $8-11MM annually seems within reach — a massive increase on his current minimum-salary contract.

Jaylen Nowell, G, Timberwolves

2022/23: $1.93MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

I liked what I saw from Nowell last season and thought he should have gotten more minutes at times. He is shifty with the ball with a quick first step, and shows some nascent play-making ability.

Something has been off with him for nearly the entire ‘22/23 season, which is unfortunate because he had a big opportunity to establish himself after the Rudy Gobert trade freed up backcourt playing time.

Maybe that’s part of the problem. He often looks like he’s trying too hard and forcing the issue instead of letting the game come to him, often a sign of a player pressing. The steep decline in three-point shooting — from 39.4% last season to 29.3% in ‘22/23 — looks like another mental hurdle, as he hesitates at times even when he’s wide open, instead of trusting himself and letting it fly.

Nowell is only 23 and on a minimum deal. He will get more than that in free agency, but probably not as much as he was aiming for before the season began.

Drew Eubanks, C, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $1.84MM
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Another player on a minimum-salary deal, Eubanks plays within a clearly defined, limited offensive role of setting hard screens, rolling for the occasional lob, and crashing the offensive glass. His averages of 6.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks don’t exactly jump off the page, though he is shooting an impressive 68.3% from the field through 62 games (19 starts, 19.9 minutes).

However, he is an above-average defensive player who moves his feet well for a big man, allowing him to switch onto smaller players better than most centers. The 26-year-old is also a solid rim protector, making up for his relative lack of height (he’s 6’9”) with powerful leaping ability and solid timing while challenging and blocking shots.

Eubanks isn’t the type of player who is going to land a major payday in free agency, but I do think he’s solidified himself as a quality backup due to his consistent energy and the self-awareness he brings of knowing his role. The Blazers have been better when he’s on the court, which is always a positive sign. A multiyear deal in the range of $4-7MM per season seems pretty reasonable.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Central Division

March 1st, 2023 at 3:53pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Central players.

Brook Lopez, C, Bucks

2022/23: $13,906,976
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Lopez has been one of the NBA’s best stories this season, rebounding from a mostly lost season in 2021/22 after undergoing back surgery (he played just 13 regular season games and 12 playoff games). He’s having an outstanding year and has been a major factor in Milwaukee’s league-leading 44-17 record, averaging 14.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .508/.370/.766 shooting through 60 games (30.3 MPG).

The veteran center, who is one of the leading candidates for Defensive Player of the Year, has said he hopes to remain with the Bucks, and the interest is reportedly mutual. Lopez has definitely earned a raise, but given his age (he turns 35 next month), I’d be a little surprised if he gets more than a two-year deal.

Khris Middleton, F, Bucks

2022/23: $37,948,276
2023/24: $40,396,552 (player option)
Stock: Down

Middleton’s stock is down primarily due to injuries, which have limited him to 20 games to this point. The Bucks have been very cautious with the three-time All-Star, as he’s been coming off the bench lately and averaging his fewest minutes per game (21.5) since he was a rookie. However, despite the small sample size, it’s worth noting that the Bucks have been terrific with Middleton on the court – he has a plus-9.7 net rating, per NBA.com.

A career 38.9% three-point shooter, Middleton is making just 29.9% from deep this season, which has hurt his offensive efficiency (the rest of his shooting numbers are very close to career norms). That seems more like an aberration than a long-term concern.

The remaining 21 regular season games and how he fares in the postseason will likely determine whether or not the 31-year-old decides to pick up his player option for ’23/24. Let’s not forget that Middleton averaged 23.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 5.1 APG and 1.5 SPG during Milwaukee’s championship run a couple years ago — I would not be surprised at all if he bounces back from a disappointing season over the next few months.

Ayo Dosunmu, G, Bulls

2022/23: $1,563,518
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Neutral

The 38^th pick of the 2021 draft, Dosunmu had a strong rookie campaign, earning a spot on the All-Rookie Second Team after averaging 8.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 3.3 APG on .520/.376/.679 shooting in 77 games (40 starts, 27.4 MPG).

His numbers have been quite similar in year two, with the 23-year-old averaging 9.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 2.8 APG on .498/.316/.806 shooting in 60 games (49 starts, 28.1 MPG). Obviously the three-point percentage is down, which is unfortunate, and he hasn’t necessarily progressed from a statistical standpoint like some second-year players do.

Advanced stats aren’t very high on Dosunmu, and the Bulls have been better by a pretty significant margin when he’s not on the court. While Dosunmu may not have made a second-year leap, I still like his defensive potential and he reportedly has a strong work ethic and team-first attitude.

Dosunmu met the starter criteria, so the value of his qualifying offer increased to $5,216,324. It will be interesting to see how his restricted free agency plays out.

Hamidou Diallo, G/F, Pistons

2022/23: $5,200,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Diallo is challenging to evaluate because his strengths and weakness are more pronounced than most players. He is a non-shooting wing with pretty bad tunnel vision, which you would expect would make him ineffective in a league constantly looking for floor-spacers.

That isn’t the case. The 24-year-old is one of the most athletic players in the NBA and he plays with a tremendous amount of energy. He utilizes those strengths to play strong defense, crash the boards, drive, and catch lobs, and he’s been very effective at all of those things in ‘22/23.

The Pistons have an overall defensive rating of 117.6, which ranks 28^th in the league. When Diallo is on the court, Detroit has the equivalent of the league’s fourth-best defense. He is shooting a career-high 58.1% from the field in large part because he is converting 71.8% of his attempts at the rim, per DunksAndThrees.com – a better mark than many centers.

Sometimes Diallo’s energy carries over into recklessness. He fouls too much and can be turnover-prone. Even if his game is polarizing, I think he deserves a raise, perhaps a deal in the range of $6-10MM per year.

Oshae Brissett, F, Pacers

2022/23: $1,846,738
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

After averaging 9.6 PPG and 5.4 RPG on .428/.368/.716 shooting in 88 games (41 starts, 23.7 MPG) with Indiana from 2020-22, Brissett had an opportunity to establish himself as a reliable rotation player in a contract year. Unfortunately, that has not come to fruition.

The Pacers have been relatively weak at power forward all season. Brissett hasn’t helped much. He’s averaging 5.5 PPG and 3.4 RPG on .388/.333/.693 shooting in 49 games in ‘22/23, with his playing time cut back to 16.0 MPG. He has been a healthy scratch in seven of the last eight games.

Still just 24 years old, Brissett should land another (relatively small) deal in free agency — he’s a solid rebounder and defender. But those shooting numbers are a problem, and his stock is definitely down compared to the past couple seasons.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Atlantic Division

January 13th, 2023 at 3:10pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Atlantic players.

Fred VanVleet, G, Raptors

2022/23: $21,250,000
2023/24: $22,824,074 player option
Stock: Down

VanVleet was a deserving first-time All-Star last season, averaging 21.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.6 steals on .419/.401/.874 (.572 true) shooting through 50 games. However, he struggled mightily after the break due to a lingering bone bruise in his right knee, appearing in just 15 games with averages of 16.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.9 steals on .343/.291/.872 (.479 true) shooting. He was clearly hampered in the playoffs as well, posting similar shooting percentages.

In the offseason, he and the Raptors discussed a four-year, $114MM extension – the maximum amount they can offer based on his current contract. VanVleet felt he had outplayed his four-year, $85MM deal to that point, so he wanted to wait and see if he could get a more lucrative contract in 2023.

I definitely understand why VanVleet bet on himself. The former undrafted free agent has turned himself into a very good player through his hard work, tenacity and determination. He was also a major part of the Toronto’s title-winning team in 2019.

Unfortunately, things haven’t gone according VanVleet’s plan thus far in 2022/23. A significant portion of his offensive game is tied to his ability to space the floor, but he’s shooting just 32.9% from three, compared to his 37.5% career mark.

VanVleet turns 29 next month, is undersized, has played a ton of minutes the past few years, his point-of-attack defense isn’t what it once was, and he missed an average of just over 18 regular season games from 2018-22. VanVleet’s leadership and competitiveness are unquestioned, but there are a lot of red flags for potential suitors if he declines his player option, which seems likely.

T.J. Warren, F, Nets

2022/23: $2,628,597
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Warren is another player with an injury history, having appeared in just four games in the two seasons leading up to ‘22/23. While the length of those absences was abnormal, the 29-year-old has never appeared in more than 67 games in a season, averaging just under 55 games in his first six years, so durability has always been a concern.

As a free agent last summer, Warren wound up signing a “prove it” deal with the Nets for the veteran’s minimum, and it took him a while to return to action — he made his season debut on December 2. However, he has only missed one game since (the second of a back-to-back), and his production hasn’t disappointed.

Warren has always been a mid-range sniper, and this season is no different – he’s shooting 52% on those looks, which ranks in the 93^rd percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com. Through 17 games, he’s averaging 10.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists on .532/.353/.889 shooting in 20.4 minutes per contest.

As long as Warren stays healthy, there’s a very good chance he’ll get a big raise in free agency — his ability to score from all over the court is the most valuable trait in basketball.

Grant Williams, F, Celtics

2022/23: $4,306,281
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

Williams and the Celtics couldn’t agree on a rookie scale extension prior to the season, with the 24-year-old reportedly looking for more money than the cost-conscious Celtics were willing to offer. Betting on himself in restricted free agency has been a worthwhile gamble for Williams so far.

Although his averages of 9.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game are all career highs, those numbers don’t jump at you. But he’s a solid defender across the three frontcourt positions and is highly efficient, posting a .504/.404/.859 (.659 true) shooting line through 42 games (16 starts, 28.0 MPG).

If he maintains his top-tier efficiency, Williams might get more than he was reportedly seeking before the season, which was in the $14-16MM range annually.

Derrick Rose, G, Knicks

2022/23: $14,520,730
2023/24: $15,596,339 team option
Stock: Down

The former league MVP has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but he’s actually been relatively healthy in ’22/23. The problem is, he just hasn’t been effective on the court, averaging career lows in minutes (12.9), points (5.8) and FG% (.394) through 26 games.

Long a favorite of head coach Tom Thibodeau, Rose has fallen out of the Knicks’ rotation. His $14.5MM contract has negative value on the trade market, and his team option for ’23/24 is essentially a lock to be declined at this point.

Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround, the 34-year-old is probably looking at a veteran’s minimum deal in the offseason. Considering his age and injury history, even that might not be a given.

Shake Milton, G, Sixers

2022/23: $1,997,718
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Milton is an interesting player. He’s a subpar defender who isn’t a great athlete by NBA standards, but he finds effective ways to work around those limitations.

He impressed as a fill-in starter when Tyrese Maxey and James Harden were injured, averaging 20.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists on .542/.425/.967 (.652 true) shooting in nine games (38.0 minutes). While those shooting percentages are an anomaly, given his career averages (.457/.361/.822 splits, including .557 true), Milton is a patient and crafty pick-and-roll play-maker who has plus size (6’5″, 205 pounds) for a combo guard.

The former 54^th overall pick initially signed a two-way deal and then was converted to a standard four-year, $7MM contract back in 2019. He’s only 26 years old, and has certainly outperformed his current deal. Something in the $5-8MM per year range seems within reach.