Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: San Antonio Spurs

May 4th, 2018 at 9:00pm CST by Austin Kent

The fate of the Spurs is in the hands of Kawhi Leonard and it’s hard to get a clear read on his current relationship with the franchise. With Leonard, a savvy veteran core, and a world-class coaching staff, the Spurs are capable of competing in the West. Without him, however, the forecast in San Antonio is considerably more bleak, and that impacts everything, including the club’s pending free agency decisions.

Given the franchise’s track record of stability, I’d posit that Leonard returns at full health next season and this entire debacle gets chalked up to a superstar-level player lacking faith in an organization’s medical staff mandated to prod him back into action as soon as reasonably possible.

While much of the disappointment around the team this year can be traced back to this one isolated case of melodrama, that shouldn’t veil the fact that the Spurs – who’ve been ancient for over a decade now – are looking older than ever. Is a major shakeup right around the bend? That may be the case with or without Leonard eventually, but in 2018/19 at least, we can expect something along the lines of the status quo.

Kyle Anderson, SF, 24 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM deal in 2014
Like any good Spurs prospect, Anderson slowly marinated in winning culture for three years before taking a leap in the final year of his rookie contract. The versatile forward thrived in the minutes made available by the injury to Leonard and could draw interest as a capable, multifaceted young asset on the open market this summer. San Antonio has some flexibility to match a raise if Anderson’s camp goes out and gets one — the Spurs may have no other choice if they end up needing to consider a full roster reboot anyway.

Davis Bertans, PF, 25 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2MM deal in 2016
Although he didn’t play major minutes on a consistent basis for the Spurs in 2017/18, Bertans established himself as a player who could contribute when given an opportunity. The stretch four isn’t likely to command a significant price tag as a restricted free agent, so San Antonio could probably lock him in as an affordable, yet capable rotation piece in an effort to add depth to an aging frontcourt.

Bryn Forbes, SG, 24 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2MM deal in 2016
With much of San Antonio’s rotation planted firmly in their late-30s, competent young players that can be locked in to affordable deals are a special commodity. In Forbes, the club has a combo guard capable of instant offense off the bench. The MSU product could generate interest from other teams looking to add fresh legs and a potent long ball, but the Spurs should have enough financial flexibility to match anything within reason.

Rudy Gay, PF, 31 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $17MM deal in 2017
An Achilles injury forced Gay into signing a short-term “prove-it” deal with the Spurs last summer and the combo forward appears to have done just that. Still, while Gay performed admirably in a reduced role with his new franchise, it’s hard to imagine he’d garner much interest on the open market given his age and relatively underwhelming portfolio as a big investment. Gay looked solid as a supplementary player for the Spurs in 2017/18 and seems to be content. Given that there won’t be a long line of teams interested in overpaying for the 31-year-old in 2018, accepting the $9MM player option for next season may be Gay’s best bet.

Danny Green, SG, 31 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $40MM deal in 2015
While Green’s calling card has become ever more important in today’s NBA, there’s no denying that the three-point specialist benefited from perfect timing the last time he hit free agency. Green could conceivably turn down his 2018/19 player option worth $10MM next season in the hopes of landing a modest raise on a lucrative short-term deal like J.J. Redick did last summer, but the former bit player could also play things safe and continue to enjoy his last haul.

Joffrey Lauvergne, C, 26 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $3MM deal in 2017
Lauvergne has seen his role decrease as he’s bounced from destination to destination over the last three seasons, but he remains a vaguely intriguing reserve asset despite the fact that he’ll turn 27 before next season. This summer, the big man’s best option to stick around in the league long-term might be to accept his 2018/19 player option and battle his way into a bigger role in San Antonio’s frontcourt. If he does that, he could open more opportunities for himself.

Tony Parker, PG, 36 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $56MM deal in 2014
The Spurs have consistently paid their veteran point guard eight-digit salaries for the past decade and while his place in the upper echelon of franchise history is secure, the organization doesn’t face any pressure to sign him to a bloated lifetime achievement contract as he enters the twilight of his career. Parker handled a demotion to the second unit professionally this year and has previously said that he’d like to play 20 seasons. That said, if indications that the team’s culture is going south are true, there may not be much of a point to keeping the band together.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: Minnesota Timberwolves

May 1st, 2018 at 8:05pm CST by Austin Kent

The Timberwolves landed back in the NBA playoffs for the first time in 14 seasons this spring. That comes as no surprise, given that the club has finally paired its stockpile of young stars with a formidable, winning coach and a green light to spend.

The Wolves need not fret that they barely put a dent in the Rockets this postseason as they’ll be back in contention next season and for as long as Jimmy Butler is capable of leading the club’s offense, flanked by Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns.

It’ll get mighty difficult to afford all three eventually but they won’t need to seriously contemplate how to make all the numbers work until the summer after this one.

Nemanja Bjelica, PF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $12MM deal in 2015
The Timberwolves are in a much different position now than they were when they inked Bjelica as an international free agent, but the veteran has hung around in large part due to his presence in the locker room. Given that the Wolves already have so much of their 2018/19 payroll tied up in other players, don’t expect them to offer Bjelica much more than the minimum.

Aaron Brooks, PG, 33 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
Brooks didn’t exactly take the league by storm in his tenth season but his role and value are clear; he’s a familiar insurance policy for former Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau. Brooks isn’t likely to have a long list of suitors so it’s well within reason that he ends up back in Minnesota on another veteran’s minimum deal late this offseason.

Jamal Crawford, SG, 38 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $9MM deal in 2017
Having made over $100MM over the course of his career, including $11MM from a team he didn’t even play for in 2017/18, Crawford won’t accept his $4.5MM player option for next season if he’s not perfectly content playing for Minnesota. I wouldn’t rule out the 38-year-old passing on a second season with the Wolves in order to close out his career as a killer reserve on a team with more realistic short-term title aspirations.

Marcus Georges-Hunt, SG, 24 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $1MM deal in 2017
There won’t be significant pressure for the Wolves to bring back Georges-Hunt after a solid but modest first year in Minnesota, but they’ll need to fill out their lineup eventually and he’s a tough, defensive-minded player. Expect the club to keep its options open over the course of the offseason but don’t be surprised if the Wolves bring the familiar 24-year-old back on the cheap.

Amile Jefferson, PF, 25 (Up) – Signed to a one-year deal in 2018
The Wolves converted Jefferson’s two-way contract into a standard deal last month despite the fact that he never even suited up for the big league roster. Still, the team had a spot to spare and had no reason not to add the extra layer of depth heading into the postseason. Jefferson is a stud in the G League so the organization may be intrigued by his eventual fit with the parent club, but he won’t earn more than the minimum.

Derrick Rose, PG, 29 (Up) – Signed to a one-year deal in 2018
Prior to signing on with his former head coach late in the regular season, Rose’s value was at a career low. Fast forward two months later, however, and the wayward guard may have actually stumbled into an opportunity to salvage his career. Rose averaged 14.2 points per game for the Wolves in the postseason and could be a valuable rotation piece in the right situation. We’ve seen Rose flame out in a couple of wrong situations, so the fact that he’s found any sort of momentum reunited with Thibodeau and the rest of the Timberbulls bodes well for all involved. Rose didn’t do enough during the first six months of the season to warrant any more than another speculative one-year, minimum deal, but the postseason resurgence may have earned him one last run at meaningful minutes on a competent team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: Miami Heat

April 29th, 2018 at 3:01pm CST by Austin Kent

The Heat doubled down on a committee of above-average role players last summer and have leveraged their depth into unexpected success after a dismal 2016. With an elite head coach and an established culture of winning, Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra have no reason to believe that they can’t continue to field a winner so long as they’re willing to invest in solid players.

The downside of a team built in this fashion, however, is that it lacks the ceiling to be truly dangerous in the postseason and the financial flexibility to change that. Not helping matters, of course, is the fact that the Heat’s highest paid player, Hassan Whiteside, could barely get off the bench in the club’s most recent first-round playoff exit.

The Heat are on pace to cross the luxury tax threshold in 2017/18 thanks to dramatic escalations in the contracts of players like Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson, making it inevitable that a dramatic roster move is forthcoming.

Is the on-court product good enough to justify the luxury tax expenses? Not likely, so all that’s left is for the franchise decide what direction to go when the dominoes start falling.

Luke Babbitt, SF, 29 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
The Heat brought Babbit aboard in a minor deal at the deadline and it wasn’t hard to understand why. The career 40.2% three-point shooter is an attractive niche add and he shot 44.1% on threes through the first half of the season with the Hawks. Unfortunately, he didn’t make enough of a splash in an inconsequential stint with Miami to warrant major interest from the franchise this summer. Babbit will have suitors as an unrestricted free agent in the offseason and could end up plucked by a team able to invest slightly more.

Wayne Ellington, SG, 30 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $12MM deal in 2016
Ellington represents this Heat roster as well as anybody — he’s a reliable veteran that can consistently get the job done. In the hands of the right coach and surrounded by the right players, that’s invaluable. If the Heat decide to continue pushing to contend in the East, it would make sense to retain Ellington for a few more years as a solid rotation piece. That being said, simply bringing back Ellington is no small feat considering the luxury tax implications of such an investment. If the Heat suspect their window is closing, all parties might be better off if the nine-year vet latches on with another contender elsewhere.

Udonis Haslem, C, 38 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
The Heat don’t have to worry about long-time big man Haslem testing the waters anywhere other than South Beach, the question is whether or not the 15-year veteran will opt instead for retirement. Haslem seems to have enough in the tank to continue playing in his drastically reduced role and, despite the luxury tax implications making even a minimum deal painful for ownership, there’s no reason to believe the franchise wouldn’t be happy to have him.

Jordan Mickey, PF, 23 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $5MM deal in 2015
Despite cracking the team’s rotation for a few weeks last December, Mickey didn’t make much of an impact with the Heat during his first season in Miami. One thing that the young big man does have going for him, however, is that his team option is for a modest $1.6MM. At a time when the franchise will be hard-pressed to fill out its 15-man roster without going into tax territory, cheap deals will be of particular interest.

Dwyane Wade, SG, 36 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
After an awkward season and a half with the Bulls and Cavaliers, Wade returned to Miami. Immediately, the franchise icon fell back into a rhythm and outplayed his minimum contract. If the Heat opt to continue competing in the East, bringing Wade back is practically essential – from a marketing point of view as much any. While he’s more than a simply symbolic figure, he’s not quite a leading man either, so a deal in the same vein as Dirk Nowitzki‘s $5MM annual with team options could be a solid starting point. If Wade is willing to sign another minimum contract, that’d be all the better for the cap-strapped Heat.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: Orlando Magic

April 13th, 2018 at 10:28pm CST by Austin Kent

Despite some unsavory long-term contracts, the Magic have plenty of cap space lined up for the 2018/19 season. For that reason, and the obvious one that they haven’t sniffed a .500 record the last six seasons, the franchise is very much a blank canvas heading forward.

Last season was the first year at the helm for new president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond, and they played things rather safe, inking a handful of serviceable, if forgettable, veterans to modest deals and calling it an offseason. This summer we may get our first look at what their long-term plans for the franchise are.

Arron Afflalo, SG, 32 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
While the once-vaunted perimeter defender previously came with a hefty price tag, the Magic managed to snag Afflalo on a cheap deal this past season. You can’t fault the squad for the speculative leadership add considering the lack of identity on the roster, but there’s no obvious reason to expect the veteran to want to return after a forgettable 2017/18. Afflalo played just 12.9 minutes per game this season and literally can’t do any worse on the open market than he did last time when he landed a minimum contract on a terrible team that couldn’t even be bothered to give him consistent playing time. That’s not a knock on either party — sometimes things just aren’t a good fit — but I expect the journeyman to seek a more substantive role for the first time since his stint in Denver.

Aaron Gordon, PF, 22 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $18MM contract in 2014
The Magic have all the flexibility in the world to accommodate a sizable Gordon deal and the combo forward is intriguing enough to convince at least one other team to make a generous offer. While it’s hard to say with certainty that Gordon can carry this franchise on his back given that he hasn’t really done so in four seasons, it’s equally hard to fault a team for pouncing on the opportunity to lock in an All-Star-adjacent asset that hasn’t even turned 23 yet. Could Gordon yield the max contract that he’s said to be seeking? It seems within reach, even if the Magic or any other team that commits to it ends up slightly underwhelmed.

Mario Hezonja, SF, 23 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $12MM contract in 2015
The Magic turned down the fourth-year option on Hezonja’s rookie contract and the swingman responded with the most memorable season of his young career so far. In 11 February contests Hezonja averaged 15.5 points and 5.0 rebounds per game, briefly showcasing that he could potentially be relied upon as an offensive weapon if given the opportunity. Nothing precludes the Magic from putting an offer on the table to bring him back this summer, but they can’t give him a starting salary higher than the value of the option they turned down ($5.17MM). Regardless, declining that option suggests the front office may have already made up its mind about his future with the team. Hezonja should draw interest elsewhere and could end up as a modest rotation player.

Marreese Speights, C, 30 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
Speights went from chipping in for four straight Western Conference contenders to a decidedly less competitive Magic squad, but don’t overlook the fact that the veteran established himself as a leader on a team in his home state. While there won’t be a shortage of space or money to bring Speights back in 2018/19, it’s reasonable to believe he’ll at least consider offers that could put him back in a position to contend. Speights was, and remains, an intriguing stretch big capable of filling the stat sheet in limited minutes off the bench. He won’t be any team’s top priority but he’s worth more than what he made this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: Detroit Pistons

April 10th, 2018 at 6:00pm CST by Austin Kent

The Pistons made it clear with their midseason blockbuster that they’re interested in competing in the Eastern Conference right away. While we won’t truly know the outcome of the Blake Griffin trade until the roster logs a full, reasonably healthy season together, there’s no denying that the franchise is committed to this core for better or worse.

With over $117MM already on the books for 2018/19, president Stan Van Gundy and general manager Jeff Bower have little room to get cute in free agency this summer. For that reason, the Pistons will have to rely primarily on in-house upgrades, and any reinforcements that do come from elsewhere will need to be modest.

James Ennis, SF, 28 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $6MM deal in 2016
The Pistons brought Ennis aboard in one of their deadline-day deals, seemingly desperate to pad their core with solid veterans. While Ennis is typically a glue guy, capable of knocking down shots and contributing defensively, it’s hard to imagine that he showed enough during his half-season in Detroit to justify a raise — or even a similar contract to his current deal. The Pistons could benefit from having Ennis’ toughness on the perimeter as they look to establish themselves in the East, but they could probably seek out that skill-set on the cheap if they want to trim their overall payroll.

Jameer Nelson, PG, 36 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
One can’t fault Van Gundy for turning to a former pupil to help his current team take the next step, but the acquisition of Nelson has to be considered – by and large – a disappointment. The veteran point guard only played seven games during his time with the Pistons and was usurped on the depth chart by Dwight Buycks. With Reggie Jackson back in the fold for 2018/19, the team will already have three relatively capable options at the point, leaving little room for Nelson.

Anthony Tolliver, PF, 32 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $3MM deal in 2017
It was a disappointing season for the Pistons, but one consistent presence that helped provide stability as the club dealt with injuries and personnel turnover was Tolliver. Fresh off the second-highest scoring year of his 10-year career, Tolliver will be an intriguing free agency option for contenders looking to add veteran leadership. He stepped up in 2017/18, showing that he’s more than just a solid locker-room presence, shooting 43.3% from beyond the arc while registering an offensive rating of 125. If the Pistons truly plan on breaking into the postseason picture next season, they’d be wise to bring the 32-year-old combo forward back, since he can fit into whatever role or position the team needs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: Brooklyn Nets

April 1st, 2018 at 8:55pm CST by Austin Kent

With little other options available, Nets general manager Sean Marks has made the most out of his biggest asset: cap space. For that reason, the Nets will likely be diligent as to how they handle free agency in 2018.

While Brooklyn will have its first-round pick in 2019 and doesn’t necessarily have to use its payroll as a landfill for unwanted player contracts just to add assets, the club may continue to leverage its cap space during what continues to be the early stages of a rebuild.

With no set core in place, the Nets won’t feel much pressure to make deals this summer, which is actually kind of a luxury. Don’t expect the franchise to stretch itself thin to bring back any of its free agents if doing so will put them in a bad position.

Jahlil Okafor, C, 22 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $14MM deal in 2015
Is there another player in NBA history who, despite a solid first-year campaign and reasonable health throughout, saw his value plummet more over the course of a rookie contract? It’s hard to imagine that Okafor’s decline is solely a product of his old-school game — he’s also had the misfortune of being employed by two franchises that couldn’t seem to care less about legitimately developing him as an asset. There will be at least one team willing to give Okafor another shot. It could even be the Nets, considering they’d get for an entire offseason and training camp this time. In any case, Okafor will probably have to sign a short-term, prove-it deal before he gets another significant NBA contract.

Quincy Acy, PF, 27 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $4MM deal in 2017
Acy is an affordable role player who has served well in two stints with the Nets. Since he comes with a cheap price tag, appears to be content with a minor role, and is a serviceable veteran who contributes when called upon, it’s hard to imagine Brooklyn wouldn’t welcome him back. Acy may get a longer-term commitment from the Nets this time around, but he isn’t likely to draw much more than a modest raise above the league minimum from Brooklyn or anybody else.

Dante Cunningham, SF, 31 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
The Nets absorbed Cunningham’s contract in a midseason deal, so there’s no guarantee that either party would be interested in a commitment beyond 2017/18. Cunningham is a utility forward seemingly intent on contributing to a reasonably competitive team so maybe their timelines just don’t match. In any event, the eight-year veteran isn’t likely to top the $2MM-$3MM threshold he’s flirted with for the majority of his career.

Joe Harris, SG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $3MM deal in 2016
The return on investment for Harris has been great, but the Nets may want to pump the brakes when it comes to re-signing him in the offseason. While Harris has been an excellent example of how the Nets franchise has developed youngsters, overpaying for a niche player without a set core in place isn’t the wisest course of action. If it looks like Harris might get poached by a more competitive team looking to add a solid depth piece, the Nets shouldn’t reach to retain him — not with so many other holes to fill first.

Nik Stauskas, SG, 24 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $12MM deal in 2014
The Nets have given Stauskas something of a tryout to prove that he could possibly live up to his eighth overall selection back in 2014, but he hasn’t done enough to warrant a raise from his rookie deal. While Stauskas may get another chance to prove himself next season, it’ll have to come cheap and potentially non-guaranteed.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Portland Trail Blazers

March 29th, 2018 at 10:17pm CST by Austin Kent

The Trail Blazers are burdened by some unpalatable long-term contracts, but the $112MM already on the books for 2018/19 is tolerable given that they’re in the running for home-court advantage in the first-round of the playoffs.

With little foreseeable cap space projected until the summer of 2020 at the earliest, the Blazers will have to make some decisions on whether to keep the current core together or make more ambitious, financially-driven moves to position themselves for the future.

The 2017/18 campaign saw general manager Neil Olshey unload 22-year-old Noah Vonleh at the trade deadline in order to duck under the luxury tax line. Could a deep postseason run in the spring be enough to convince franchise owner Paul Allen to blow by that threshold next year?

Jusuf Nurkic, C, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $8MM contract in 2014.
While Nurkic’s value tends to fluctuate from month to month, there’s no denying that he’s capable of big things if given an opportunity. Were it not for the Blazers’ financial binds, bringing back the Bosnian Beast on a significant deal would be a no-brainer. Alas, making or matching a significant offer for the big man would vault Portland well into the luxury tax, something that we’re not quite sure the club is willing to do yet. It would be a shame for the Blazers to watch Nurkic walk for nothing, so expect them to work the phones aggressively to see if they can find a way to make it work. If they can’t, he’ll get paid elsewhere, even with a glut of other available centers on the market.

Pat Connaughton, SG, 25 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3MM deal in 2015.
After two years of sparse playing time, Connaughton has carved out a role for himself in Portland’s rotation. The dual-threat athlete won’t break the bank as a restricted free agent, but could be a welcomed addition should the Blazers look to bring the familiar face back on the cheap.

Ed Davis, C, 29 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $20MM deal in 2015.
While Davis has consistently established himself as an efficient player in reserve minutes, he’s never taken the leap to make a case for himself as a starter. The big man should be able to at least replicate his last contract considering his per-36 rates of 10.2 points and 14.0 boards, but don’t bank on that coming in Portland — he’s a replaceable piece of the current puzzle.

Shabazz Napier, PG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM contract in 2014.
It took Napier four years and three teams to find a home in the NBA, but he has finally come into his own in Oregon. The prolific 26-year-old combo guard has slotted in admirably behind Portland’s celebrated starting duo – a duo consisting of two other prolific combo guards – and has stepped up occasionally when called upon. In nine games as a starter, the former UConn standout has posted 15.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists per contest, and may have shown just enough in those stints to draw an offer sheet out of a desperate team in restricted free agency. It’s hard to imagine Olshey digging deep to match an aggressive offer from a team with cap space to spare but that wouldn’t be for a lack of interest.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 NBA Free Agent Stock Watch: Atlanta Hawks

March 9th, 2018 at 8:47pm CST by Austin Kent

The Hawks are in the early stages of a rebuild after years as a modest contender in the Eastern Conference. Given new general manager Travis Schlenk‘s desire to preserve cap flexibility, you can imagine the franchise will be particularly prudent when free agency resumes in July.

As things stand, the club has just $70.5MM on the books for next season, a figure that drops to $60.2MM if you subtract a pair of player options that we’ll discuss below.

The Hawks will have little incentive to keep their payroll that tight given the salary floor projected in the $85MM range but they’ll be dead-set against committing to inconsequential long-term deals unless it comes in the form of a trade for a significant asset.

Dewayne Dedmon, C, 28 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $12.3MM deal in 2017
After years as a journeyman, Dedmon began to make a name for himself as a surprisingly productive reserve for a legitimate contender in San Antonio. While he never played enough minutes to make it onto the mainstream radar, he’s a value add that landed in an ideal environment in Atlanta. Though Dedmon has stepped up in the biggest opportunity of his career thus far, he doesn’t have much of a role with the Hawks long term given the fact that, at 28 years of age, he doesn’t really fit their timeline. Expect him to turn down his player option and hit the open market in search of a raise from his current $6MM salary. Dedmon could be a double-double talent for any team that really wanted him to be but it’s more likely that he settles in as a go-to frontcourt bench option with his stellar career per-36 rates.

Malcolm Delaney, PG, 29 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $5MM deal in 2016
It’s hard to imagine that Delaney will generate much interested as a restricted free agent considering his age and 5.7 career point-per-game average but that doesn’t mean the franchise won’t look to bring him back on a short-term deal if they simply need bodies that the coaching staff is familiar with. If he’s not back in Atlanta, however, he may have a hard time landing a gig.

Mike Muscala, 27, C (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $10MM deal in 2017
Having carved out a role for himself as a decent defensive big man with a plus three-point shot, Muscala could conceivably draw interest from other teams if he turned down his player option for 2018/19. In reality, however, it’s hard to imagine Muscala definitively emerging from a crowded center market to land a deal better than his current one. Muscala isn’t a spring chicken by NBA standards but prolonging a free agency decision until 2019, when he’s 28 years old, wouldn’t be an awful idea.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Indiana Pacers

March 2nd, 2018 at 5:55pm CST by Austin Kent

The Pacers are in an enviable position mere months after it seemed like they were doomed to a long and challenging rebuild. The breakout seasons enjoyed by Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis have helped distract from the absence of Paul George while the all-around contributions of an unheralded, cohesive veteran lineup has put Indiana firmly in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

The Pacers didn’t make a major splash at the trade deadline and were even asked specifically by players to avoid tinkering with the chemistry in the locker room. While it’s hard to argue that the franchise made the wrong call standing pat with a roster that’s punched above its weight on a nightly basis, the Pacers have a long road ahead of them before they’re considered serious challengers, even in the East.

It’s refreshing to see a team build anew without bottoming out. Solid drafting and some responsible payroll management will help them climb to the next rung on the ladder.

Cory Joseph, PG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $29.9MM contract in 2017
Joseph has thrived as the younger half of a point guard tandem charged with the task of helping the Pacers play a faster style of basketball. While he’s ceded the majority of the starts so far this season to Darren Collison, Joseph is a solid rotation piece and possible future starter. It’s likely we’ve already caught a glimpse of his ceiling, so the former Raptors probably won’t draw major money on the open market. That being said, it’s hard to imagine he couldn’t procure a raise if he turns down his 2018/19 player option worth just less than $8MM.

Glenn Robinson III, SF, 24 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3.4MM contract in 2015
After breaking into Indy’s rotation in 2016/17, an ankle injury put Robinson III’s latest campaign on hold until after the All-Star Game. The Pacers may see some upside in the former second-round pick, and likely won’t have to outbid many competitors to retain his services should they wish to do so. Assuming the swingman’s health holds up in the final stretch of 2017/18, expect the club to lock him in for at least a few more seasons at an affordable rate. At this stage in the game, the Pacers can justify the low-risk, medium-reward lottery ticket.

Lance Stephenson, SG, 27 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $12.6MM deal in 2017
While Stephenson’s career took a turn for the worse after he flew the coop in 2014, his return to Indiana has helped restore his value as a professional basketball player. The 27-year-old may not be the irreplaceable triple-double machine the Hornets hoped he would be when they poached him from Indiana four years ago, but he’s a solid rotation piece whose contributions to the Pacers franchise are both mysterious and intangible. Expect the club to bring their enigmatic swingman back on his dirt-cheap $4.4MM team option.

Joe Young, PG, 26 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $5.1MM deal in 2015
The Pacers have never seemed particularly intent on working Young into their rotation. While you could argue that a consistently competitive squad like Indiana may be inherently reluctant to throw big minutes at an inexperienced point guard, he only topped the 20-minute plateau four times during his first two years in the league. The 25-year-old has seen an uptick in usage since Collison went down with a knee injury in early February, but the club may be better off turning down his team option and seeing what else they could do with the roster spot.

Thaddeus Young, PF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $53.9MM deal in 2015
Young has established himself as a critical component of this Pacers team and fills the role of do-everything veteran forward admirably. While the almost-30-year-old’s services would be welcomed by several other contending teams, it’s hard to imagine Young’s camp being all that confident they’d land more than $13.8MM in a bear market. If Indiana was knee deep in the turbulent rebuild many expected, it would make sense for Young to take that chance, but given that the opposite is true, I anticipate him accepting the 2018/19 player option and returning as a leader on and off the court.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: New Orleans Pelicans

February 23rd, 2018 at 6:08pm CST by Austin Kent

The Pelicans opted to zig while the rest of the NBA zagged, effectively doubling down on big men in the throes of the Small Ball Era. Unfortunately, before anybody could see whether the unconventional approach would bear any fruit, it all came crashing down in the form of DeMarcus Cousins‘ torn Achilles.

The Pels rolled the dice when they acquired Cousins at the trade deadline last season and will now finally get the opportunity to find out whether they can lock him up long term.

Since Cousins’ unrestricted free agency impacts the course of the franchise in both the short- and long-term, the fact that he’ll be sidelined, perhaps even into the 2018/19 campaign, is the biggest Pels storyline heading into the offseason.

Ian Clark, SG, 27 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $1.6MM deal in 2018
The Pels landed an intriguing depth piece with winning experience when they inked the ex-Warriors guard last offseason. But while he’s shown the occasional glimpse of promise on the wings, Clark hasn’t exactly put himself in position for a big payout this summer. On a frontcourt-heavy roster, there isn’t much need for a wing player who shoots 29.1% from beyond the arc, but he could be a cheap rotation piece for the soon-to-be cash-strapped franchise.

DeMarcus Cousins, C, 27 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $63.5MM deal in 2013
Cousins’ value has changed in a few ways over the course of the past 12 months. While he was once perceived as a fickle star putting up lofty but hollow numbers for a perennial loser, he’s now a major part of an intriguing organization with enormous ambitions. The catastrophic Achilles injury that cut his 2017/18 season short will have but a little impact on his stock heading forward. Given that the relationship between Cousins and the franchise appears to be on good terms, it seems well within reason that the club would offer the max allowable and then find a way to make the numbers work. Sure, the Pelicans could take the opportunity to pull the plug on the experiment before seriously hamstringing their payroll, but it could be years, if not decades, before they have as high a ceiling as they do with Cousins and Anthony Davis on the same roster. Don’t expect the injury to impact much, except, perhaps, the list of other franchises tripping over themselves trying to poach Cousins’ services.

Rajon Rondo, PG, 32 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $3.3MM deal in 2018
It’s not often that a 12-year-veteran on a minimum contract with his fifth team in four seasons would be considered a must-add, but that’s exactly what Rondo is heading into the summer. After three seasons bouncing around the league, Rondo performed admirably alongside Cousins, a former teammate and fellow Kentucky product. The Pelicans need all the affordable help they can get and a motivated Rondo, who dropped two points and 25 assists in one of the most fascinating NBA statlines of all time earlier this season, is a bargain worth chasing. Given that the surly vet hasn’t exactly been a good fit in Dallas, Sacramento or Chicago, there may not be much of a market for the Pels to compete with.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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