Free Agent Stock Watch

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Denver Nuggets

December 21st, 2017 at 9:27pm CST by Austin Kent

After years of being a beloved up-and-coming Western Conference hopeful, the Nuggets have lost some of their sheen due to circumstances somewhat out of their control. The franchise made its intentions clear by signing Paul Millsap to a contract north of $31MM this season, which only adds to the frustration caused by a relatively mediocre start.

The Nuggets had their hands full adding Millsap to the fold alongside 22-year-old Nikola Jokic, so we can’t exactly fault the club for getting out to a slow start, but – at just 16-15 – they have. When word broke that the 32-year-old free agent would miss months with a wrist injury, the outlook grew even more bleak.

All told, the Nuggets may not be quite as mysteriously captivating as they were in the past, but that doesn’t mean they can’t still be a solid team eventually given the still-very-much intriguing young pieces that dot the roster.

Darrell Arthur, PF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $23MM deal in 2016
While Arthur has played nine seasons with just two NBA franchises, carving out a role as a consistently reliable rotation player on both despite never logging more than the 21.7 minutes per game, his pedestrian career marks of 6.6 points and 3.6 rebounds per game aren’t likely to yield much on the open market. For that reason, expect him to pick up his $7.5MM player option.

Will Barton, SG, 27 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $10MM deal in 2015
In three and a half seasons with the Nuggets, Barton has made a name for himself as a solid spark plug off the bench. The soon-to-be 27-year-old unrestricted free agent will hit the open market in July and seems likely to command more from another suitor than the Nuggets would be comfortable matching given the other building blocks they’ll need to commit to.

Wilson Chandler, SF, 31 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $47MM deal in 2015
Despite having a career year in 2016/17 and starting every game of the season for the Nuggets so far this year, Chandler isn’t a major part of Denver’s long-term plans. Given that we may see more penny pinching next summer than we did the last two because of a league-wide dearth of cap room, it’s hard to imagine the forward landing more than what he’ll be able to get just by accepting the $13MM player option he has for $2018/19.

Richard Jefferson, SF, 38 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
After landing with the Nuggets on a minimum deal following his release from the Cavaliers at the start of the season, Jefferson will hit free agency once again next summer. At the ripe age of 38, no longer privy to the luxuries of competing for a championship, don’t put it past the podcasting superstar to retire.

Nikola Jokic, C, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM deal in 2015
The Nuggets have options for dealing with Jokic’s inevitable free agency. There’s no denying that the affable big man with a 24.1 career PER will command max money whenever he’s eligible to sign a new deal — whether that happens next summer or the one after that is the question. Denver holds a team option for Jokic’s 2018/19 campaign. While they could technically turn down his team option and look to lock him up as a restricted free agent in 2018, the Nuggets are already flirting with the luxury tax for next season without a monster Jokic deal on their books (or a possible Barton deal, for that matter). The front office could be better suited accepting the team option and then making a major play for the big man in 2019, once the contracts of Chandler, Arthur and Kenneth Faried expire. Still, there are optics to think about in that scenario. Regardless, Jokic has earned big money, so let’s pull up some chairs and watch how Tim Connelly and Arturas Karnisovas try to figure this out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Dallas Mavericks

December 14th, 2017 at 1:41pm CST by Austin Kent

The Mavericks are in a curious position as an NBA franchise, suspended in a unique limbo between rebuilding and (sorta) contending. Thank Dirk Nowitzki for most of it, as team owner Mark Cuban seems to have insisted that the Mavs field a semi-competent roster in the future Hall of Famer’s final years.

While the club has seemingly acknowledged the writing on the wall and started to amass long-term building blocks – most recently, ninth overall pick Dennis Smith Jr. – it’s unlikely that the Mavs will fully give into an outright rebuild so long as Nowitzki is on board for 2018/19 (which, for reasons discussed below, we’re going to assume to be the case).

Seth Curry, PG, 27 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $6MM deal in 2016
Curry has yet to see the court this season on account of a leg injury that may now require surgery. Even at full health, however, it’s not likely that Curry would have siphoned minutes away from either lottery pick Dennis Smith Jr. or several other niche players in Dallas’ backcourt rotation, a reality that casts doubt on his future with the franchise.

Devin Harris, SG, 35 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $17MM deal in 2014
While Harris has produced admirably off the bench for the Mavs, it doesn’t make sense for a team attempting to usher in a new era to retain a 35-year-old reserve in an already crowded backcourt. Harris could be a sneaky value add for a contender late in the free agency process next summer.

Yogi Ferrell, PG, 25 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2MM deal in 2017
Ferrell carved out a role for himself as a rotation piece on the Mavs last season but he probably won’t garner much interest as a restricted free agent next summer given that his ceiling seems somewhat capped. Still, he could provide solid long-term value in Dallas if the team does decide to part ways with Curry and/or Harris.

Wesley Matthews, SF, 31 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $70MM deal in 2015
The Mavs poached Matthews from an elite Trail Blazers squad hopeful that the swingman’s two-way game would help keep their aging core relevant in the West. Through three seasons, Matthews has posted a relatively uninspiring 12.9 points per game but will almost certainly return to Dallas considering how unlikely it would be for him to exceed his $19MM 2018/19 player option on the open market.

Josh McRoberts, PF, 31 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $23MM deal in 2014
The Mavs absorbed the final year of McRoberts’ contract over the summer, yielding a future second-round pick from the Heat in the process. Considering that the 30-year-old has been sidelined with a knee injury since joining the organization, he’ll be hard-pressed to earn a significant contract after this season. McRoberts may be able to fill a rotation spot somewhere – maybe even in Dallas – but he’ll presumably have to do so on a minimum salary.

Salah Mejri, C, 32 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $3MM deal in 2015
While Mejri has played a modest role for the Mavs in each of the past three seasons, he won’t command much on the open market as a 32-year-old free agent with career averages south of five points per game.

Nerlens Noel, C, 24 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $4MM deal in 2017
It’s been less than a year since the Mavs plucked a disgruntled Noel away from the Sixers, but any notion that the team was eager to include the 23-year-old in their long-term plans has quickly faded. It’s hard to picture Noel commanding the big money he supposedly aspired to land last summer but even harder to picture him back in Dallas next season after how head coach Rick Carlisle has handled his minutes so far this season. Realistically the 2016 lottery pick’s value falls much higher than his $4MM qualifying offer and, once the free agency dominoes start falling next summer, he should find a team happy to throw him a more significant long-term offer.

Dirk Nowitzki, PF, 40 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $10MM deal in 2017.
Nowitzki has said that his decision (yes, his decision, even though it’s formally and contractually the team’s) will be based on how he feels over the course of this season. For what it’s worth, Cuban hopes to see him return and thinks there’s good chance that he does so in order to break the record for most seasons with one franchise.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Boston Celtics

December 7th, 2017 at 11:11pm CST by Austin Kent

The Celtics are in one of the most enviable positions in the NBA, with a winning core composed primarily of veteran players in or near their prime and a wave of promising young players with years left on their rookie deals. This summer, then, won’t be a particularly eventful one relative to the club’s 2017 transformation.

While the club does have a few pending free agents, most are replaceable and nearly all are affordable. The question the Celtics will have to answer in the summer then, is whether they’d be better off welcoming the selected few back or auditioning new options.

Aron Baynes, C, 30 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $4.3MM deal in 2017
After two years serving as Andre Drummond‘s primary backup in Detroit, Baynes signed on with the Celtics over the summer, immediately slotting into the team’s rotation as the most physically imposing big man on the roster. While Al Horford has thrived in customary fashion handling the bulk of responsibility at the five, Baynes has done what’s been asked of him. The C’s won’t need to break the bank to bring Baynes back next season, so – without any other traditional big bodies on board – it’s an easy enough sell.

Shane Larkin, PG, 25 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $1.5MM deal in 2017
Larkin, an undersized 25-year-old, has bounced around the NBA since coming out of Miami in 2013, but hasn’t made much of an impression at any of his four stops despite fascinating speed. Given Boston’s depth and contention timeline, that’s not likely to change. It’s hard to imagine that a Celtics team with no shortage of assets would prefer a fourth-string point guard with a precarious NBA future over the roster flexibility that letting him walk would bring.

Marcus Smart, PG, 23 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $14.8MM deal in 2014
It’s weird to remember that Smart is still only 23 years old, considering that he’s carved out a niche as a gritty, reliable defender over the course of several postseasons. His offensive game may leave much to be desired – he’s a 29.1% career three-point shooter – but he helps a successful team win games night in and night out. It’s not that much of a stretch, then, to picture other teams looking to poach Smart’s services, hoping for some of that winning mojo to wear off on them. Unfortunately for Smart, a restricted free agent, there’s a dearth of teams projected to have cap space next summer, the majority of whom will likely pursue more grandiose home runs swings. Expect Smart back with the Celtics at a fair price.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Los Angeles Clippers

November 30th, 2017 at 8:56pm CST by Austin Kent

The Clippers are in a precarious position, now teetering on the ledge of an existential crisis following Blake Griffin‘s latest significant injury. Suddenly, the team that seemed so valiantly intent on forging ahead without Chris Paul (and then Milos Teodosic and then Patrick Beverley) has been dramatically deflated, dealt a seemingly insurmountable blow that could very well change the franchise’s short-term plans.

Needless to say, the next few months will be of particular interest to various representatives of the team’s pending free agents, several of whom could stand to benefit from increased playing time in Griffin’s absence and/or a significantly expanded role if the team decides to lean into a full-fledged rebuild and trade away veterans.

On paper, the Clippers could end up with substantial cap space, but that’s far from guaranteed considering how many players have options heading into the summer.

Montrezl Harrell, C, 24 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $4MM deal in 2015
One of the biggest potential beneficiaries of the Clippers’ bad luck is Harrell, a 2015 second-round pick who showed glimpses of productivity throughout his first two seasons in the league with Houston. Harrell hasn’t done much to this point in the 2017/18 season but it seems inevitable that he’ll see his playing time and opportunities in general increase over the next two months.

Brice Johnson, PF, 24 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $3MM deal in 2016
While the absence of Griffin could open up opportunities for Johnson to see more of a role at the big league level, the team would have to fully accept a rebuild in order for the sparsely-used North Carolina product to start seeing consistent action. I’m not sure if the Clips are there yet. Simply put, Johnson hasn’t show much in Los Angeles and the team forfeited the chance to lock him up on the cheap last month when it turned down his rookie option.

Wesley Johnson, SF, 30 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $18MM deal in 2016
After eight underwhelming seasons in the NBA, it’s hard to imagine Johnson landing big money in a crowded free agent market next summer. However, the 30-year-old – who has career averages of 7.6 points and 3.7 rebounds per game – has a player option worth over $6MM that he’ll presumably accept.

DeAndre Jordan, C, 29 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $88MM deal in 2015
Jordan is the closest thing to a marquee name among Los Angeles’ pending free agents. The 29-year-old will be coming off of seven straight seasons as a rain-or-shine starter (10 in total), with off-the-charts rebounding numbers and an All-Star Game under his belt. That being said, Jordan – who holds a $24MM player option for next season – will need to be careful heading into the summer, considering the market for big men has changed since he signed his last contract. On top of that, any long-term deal would put a club at risk of having that contract turn into an albatross during its back half. Finally, it’s not inconceivable to suggest that the Jordan you could temporarily (kinda, maybe, possibly) justify maxing out was simply a product of CP3’s playmaking abilities. Jordan may very well end up turning down his player option, but there won’t likely be strong market pressure for L.A. or anybody else to offer a huge long-term deal.

Willie Reed, C, 28 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2017
Now with his third team in three NBA season, Reed will need to show that he’s more than just a journeyman spot starter with legal baggage. While Reed has been used less with the Clippers than he was in Miami last season, his opportunities could increase substantially with Griffin sidelined. I suspect, given the big man’s per-36 numbers, he’ll be able to procure more than the minimum and stick with that team for longer than a single season.

Austin Rivers, G, 25 (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $35MM deal in 2016
The Clippers took a gamble on Rivers in 2016, offering the largely unproven combo guard a major contract without much of a track record to show for it. Fast forward two seasons and Rivers remains more or less equally underwhelming. Rivers does little across the board and isn’t a particularly effective shooter. It wouldn’t make much sense for Rivers’ camp to turn down his $13MM player option for next season.

Milos Teodosic, PG, 31 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $12MM deal in 2017
It’s hard to gauge Teodosic’s NBA value, considering he only played two games before falling to a foot injury. As things stand, the romantic notion that Teodosic would drop in from overseas to fill the playmaking hole left by Paul is on the back burner. If the plan was for Teodosic to prove himself in his rookie season, turn down his player option for 2018/19 and then sign a larger contract, it’ll come down to how he fares during the second half of the season, since nobody has yet seen enough to warrant a big investment. It seems likely that the Serbian 31-year-old will be back in the lineup before the end of December, so there’s plenty of time for him to prove himself at the NBA level.

Lou Williams, SG, 32 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $21MM deal in 2015
Over course of the last half decade, Williams has fully embraced an identity as a wildly prolific scorer off the bench. Over the course of the last two seasons alone he’s thrived in systems that have had no reason but to let him loose on their second unit and the volume shooter has shown no signs of slowing down north of 30. It may be a bit much to expect Williams to yield anything in the realm of former Clipper J.J. Redick‘s offseason haul ($23MM for a one-year deal with Philly) but there should be plenty of suitors willing to give 2015’s Sixth Man of the Year a sizable raise over his current $7MM salary.

Player ages as of July 1, 2018. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Memphis Grizzlies

November 23rd, 2017 at 7:20pm CST by Austin Kent

The Grizzlies are in an interesting place as a franchise and how they fare over the course of the next few seasons will have an impact on the team’s lasting legacy.

With $160MM tied up in franchise cornerstones Marc Gasol (32 years old) and Mike Conley (30), the good-but-not-exactly-great club has little choice but to keep retooling its rotation with low-cost players capable of possibly contributing to a second-tier Western Conference squad. More importantly, the Grizzlies have to be ready to promptly move on if those experiments don’t pan out.

Memphis isn’t expected to have any cap space next season, so any progress or roster development will have to come from within. Here’s a look at the team’s players who will hit free agency this summer and which way their value is trending.

Mario Chalmers, PG, 32 (Up) – Signed to 1-year, $2.1MM deal in 2017
The Grizz brought Chalmers back on board after waiving him in the spring of 2016. After spending last season out of the NBA altogether recovering from an Achilles injury, the former Heat punching bag has stepped into a role as a backup point guard and spot starter. Chalmers lacks the ceiling of a younger prospect and doesn’t contribute consistently enough to qualify as a reliable go-to bench option, so don’t expect any teams to offer big money. Still, that doesn’t mean he’s not capable of landing slightly more than the veteran’s-minimum contract he signed for last summer. If he stays healthy, Chalmers could find other suitors around the league. But with little reliable point guard depth under contract, the Grizzlies may be among those most eager to sign him.

James Ennis, SF, 28 (Down) – Signed to 2-year, $5.9MM deal in 2016
Memphis isn’t afraid to give Ennis a sizable workload, as evidenced by the 23.5 minutes per game he saw last year (which has risen to 26.5 so far in 2017/18), but the small forward isn’t particularly effective with that time on the court. With so many other swingmen on the roster, three of whom were signed just last summer, it doesn’t make much sense for the Grizzlies to commit long-term to the gritty veteran.

Tyreke Evans, SG/SF, 28 (Up) – Signed to 1-year, $3.3MM deal in 2017
The Grizzlies got one of the biggest bargains of the summer when they signed Evans with their bi-annual exception. The biggest issue with Evans, however, is health — he played just 65 games over the course of the previous two seasons. That said, Evans has shown no signs of lingering ailments so far this season and has averaged a head-turning 17.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game in just 28.2 minutes per contest. If Evans keeps up his trademark versatile play for a full season, he’ll yield plenty more on the open market than what Memphis will be able to cover with his Non-Bird rights.

Brandan Wright, PF/C, 30 (Down) – Signed to 3-year, $17.2MM deal in 2015
Having played in just 40 games over the course of the past two seasons – and having been traded twice mid-season the year before that – it’s hard to know what to expect out of Wright. While the big man was once a surprisingly productive reserve, he suddenly qualifies as a 30-year-old journeyman who has made six forgettable stops over the course of 10 NBA seasons. Wright has done an admirable job trying to fill holes in Memphis’ depleted 2017/18 rotation, averaging 13.8 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes, but given his spotty track record, don’t expect him to net more than the veteran’s minimum next summer.

Player ages as of July 1, 2018. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Norris Cole

August 17th, 2015 at 7:59pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The New Orleans Pelicans have been one of the busiest teams this offseason, with their focus on retaining their core group of players. They made national headlines at the start of free agency when franchise player Anthony Davis agreed to a long-term extension. They filled out their roster mostly by re-signing their own free agents. They agreed to terms with Omer Asik, Alexis Ajinca, Luke Babbitt and Dante Cunningham on multi-year deals and brought in a couple of low-profile free agents — Kendrick Perkins and Alonzo Gee.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

There’s one order of business that remains unresolved. Norris Cole is still contemplating his options, leaving the Pelicans’ backcourt in a state of flux. The Pelicans tendered a qualifying offer of $3,036,927 to Cole, making him a restricted free agent.

With injury-prone Jrue Holiday as the starter, Cole would seemingly have a rotation spot if he re-signed with New Orleans, since the only other point guard possibilities on the current roster are wing starters Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans. The Pelicans’ backcourt was thinned out even further when they opted to waive Toney Douglas.

Early in the free agency process, Cole was reportedly the team’s top remaining priority. Yet the situation has dragged on deep into the summer with no resolution. They haven’t been able to come to terms on a multi-year contract, nor has Cole received an offer sheet from another club. He could accept the qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next summer, when the salary cap shoots upward, but the Rich Paul client has held off on that option.

There have been reports of other teams making a run at Cole. The Sixers showed some interest and certainly have the cap room to make him an offer, though they currently have four point guards on their roster. Cole could compete for a starting role there but if Philadelphia had serious interest in him, it would seem that an offer sheet would have already been made.

The Knicks have also been linked to Cole. Their point guard trio of Jose Calderon, Langston Galloway (who can play either guard spot) and rookie Jerian Grant doesn’t get the pulse racing, and Cole could compete for a starting job there. However, the Knicks have been so active in the free agent market that they’re limited to offering a minimum salary to Cole if they can’t engineer a sign-and-trade.

The Lakers are a possibility, though the signing of Lou Williams to back up rookie D’Angelo Russell makes that an unlikely scenario.

The relatively quiet market for Cole is somewhat surprising, considering that the Wizards, Thunder, Bucks and Cavs were reportedly interested in Cole leading up to the February trade deadline. Cole wound up with the Pelicans when the Heat included him in the three-team Goran Dragic trade.

For what it’s worth, Cole made a favorable impression on the team’s most important player. Davis has said that he wants Cole back and the fact that the Pelicans allowed the deadline to withdraw the qualifying offer to pass means they’re serious about retaining Cole, as long as it fits their budget.

In the meantime, New Orleans is exploring other options. The club has reportedly made an offer to veteran Jason Terry, though there hasn’t been any movement on that front over the past week.

Cole still has the leverage of signing the qualifying offer but the longer he waits, the more competition he may face for a rotation spot. So unless there is another suitor ready to extend an offer sheet, it may be in his best interest to come to terms quickly with the Pelicans. He should get enough playing time to enhance his value if he accepts the qualifying offer. He can then get the long-term security he desires — with a major bump in salary — next summer.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Tayshaun Prince

August 10th, 2015 at 6:47pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Players in the twilight of their careers often need to exercise patience when they hit the free agent market. That’s especially true for a veteran hoping to hook on to a contending team and get one last chance to earn a championship ring. Such is the case with small forward Tayshaun Prince, who won an NBA title with the Pistons in 2004 and was a fixture on a unit that reached the Eastern Conference Finals six consecutive years from 2003-08.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Prince got traded twice last season in his walk year. The Grizzlies, who traded for him midway through the 2012/13 season from Detroit, dealt him to the Celtics in January as part of a three-team deal in which Memphis acquired Jeff Green. Prince only appeared in nine games with the Celtics before he was shipped back to the Pistons at the trade deadline for forwards Jonas Jerebko and Luigi Datome. Prince initially thought the Pistons would release him but Detroit needed another small forward after dealing starter Kyle Singler to the Thunder as part of the Reggie Jackson trade.

He appeared in 23 games in his second stint with Detroit, including seven starts, and showed that he still had some life in his 35-year-old legs by averaging 7.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 24.8 minutes. That included a 23-point, 7-rebound outing at Orlando on March 27th.

He may have lost a step but he still has those long arms to distract opponents defensively and knows the ins and outs of team defense. He’s a facilitator on offense, though more of a No. 4 or 5 scoring option at this stage of his career. He can also play some power forward in smaller lineups.

Seeking younger options at his spot, the Pistons had no interest in bringing back Prince. They wound up drafting Stanley Johnson and trading for Marcus Morris this summer. Meanwhile, from all appearances, Prince has not received much attention on the open market.

Sam Amico reported in his weekly column for Hoops Rumors late last month that the Trail Blazers had shown interest in the BDA Sports Management client. The Spurs reportedly contacted Prince at the beginning of free agency and the Cavs also looked into pursuing him. But the Spurs have seemingly filled their needs during a highly-successful summer highlighted by the signing of prized free agent LaMarcus Aldridge. Any hope for Prince to land in Cleveland was lost when it signed another 35-year-old small forward, Richard Jefferson.

The Blazers don’t fit the profile of a contender without Aldridge, so that would be a fallback option at best for Prince. Portland brought in two younger options at that position this summer, adding Al-Farouq Aminu in free agency and trading for Maurice Harkless.

Thus, Prince might have to take a wait-and-see approach, hoping an opportunity arises with a club that feels it needs frontcourt depth and another savvy, sage voice in its locker room. The wait could stretch into the regular season, when an injury might cause a playoff-caliber team to scour the landscape for available options.

Prince, who made $7,707,865 last season, said back in March that he felt he could play effectively for another two or three seasons. It’s likely Prince will have to settle for a one-year offer, unless the second year includes a team option.

What other teams might have interest? Pure speculation but it would seem the Wizards could be a good fit, considering they lost Paul Pierce and play a half-court style suited to Prince’s game. The Mavericks, who lost Jefferson, may also come calling, since Prince was drafted by the Pistons when Dallas coach Rick Carlisle was entering his second season as Detroit’s head man.

The Hawks, who lost DeMarre Carroll in free agency, could be a logical landing spot for Prince. The Rockets could also use some frontcourt depth, though they drafted Sam Dekker.

Prince has enough left in the tank that someone will eventually come calling. He’ll just have to stay patient until that time comes.

Free Agent Stock Watch: J.R. Smith

August 9th, 2015 at 12:47pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The summer of 2015 provided one of the craziest starts to NBA free agency in recent memory. The projected salary cap rise for a year from now encouraged franchises to spend big on free agents and teams responded by doling out over $2 billion in contracts. J.R. Smith and his agent, Leon Rose, surely anticipated this and expected to draw from the free agency money tree. Thus far, that plan has not borne fruit.

Jan 23, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard J.R. Smith (5) reacts after hitting a three-point shot against the Charlotte Hornets during the first quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Cavs would like to have him back, but apparently only on a modest one year deal. The team cautioned Smith against declining his $6.4MM option. While Cleveland has the ability to offer him a deal as lucrative as the one he turned down because it owns his Bird rights, the tax implications behind making such an offer would be pernicious from a financial standpoint. Assuming the Cavs sign Tristan Thompson to the mammoth contract he is holding out for, the team would be well into the luxury tax, meaning every dollar they shell out to Smith would cost them $3.75 or more in tax penalties.

The former Sixth Man of the Year is has reportedly been angling for a three-year contract. The Cavs simply cannot accommodate his request unless owner Dan Gilbert is willing to foot a massive tax bill over the next few years. Cleveland doesn’t have any significant money coming off the books in the next couple of seasons and it will have to account for a monstrous new contract for center Timofey Mozgov. Mozgov’s arrival turned a below-average defense into a stable unit, and he played a integral role in the team’s slaughtering of Eastern Conference foes en route to the NBA Finals. Gilbert may be willing to pay a large bill a year from now to retain a difference maker in Mozgov, but he’s most likely not going to do that for Smith.

Cleveland will reportedly let the market dictate what kind of contract it offers Smith, in an example of a team properly forecasting the NBA economy. The Cavs recognize that New York had to attach Iman Shumpert to the deal that sent Smith to Cleveland in order to move him, and if any team thought Smith was worth the price of his previous contract, it would have just taken him off Phil Jackson‘s hands for nothing.

The Jazz, Trail Blazers and Sixers are the only teams that are hoarding enough cap space to entertain a salary comparable to the option that Smith turned down. Philadelphia had ill-matched interest in Smith, but that interest has faded, according to Hoops Rumors contributor Sam Amico of AmicoHoops.net. Smith wants to be somewhere he can make a difference and he is just not a fit for any of the teams that are left with cap space.

Charlotte has the ability to offer the 29-year-old the full value of the mid-level exception, worth $5.464MM, as the team’s Salary Cap Page shows. The free agent market has dried up considerably and few remaining players outside of Smith can reasonably anticipate receiving a contract for nearly that amount. Let’s assume Smith is willing to concede on the value of his annual salary in favor of a longer deal that has more guaranteed money. The Hornets present an alluring situation for the shooting guard.

The team made a few gleaming upgrades this offseason with an eye on improving its overall shooting. New addition Nicolas Batum could slide into the starting two spot next to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at the three to solidify the team’s starting five. The team added Jeremy Lin, in a team-friendly deal, to presumably run the second unit. After the top six players, the roster gets murky. The big man rotation looks to be adequate, especially if Frank Kaminsky’s game can translate immediately as expected, but the chatter about playing Kidd-Gilchrist at the four could further extend an already thin wing rotation.

The Hornets picked up Jeremy Lamb as a follow-up to the Lance Stephenson trade. Lamb showed flashes of becoming a serviceable rotation piece last season, but his inconsistency led him to see the bench more often than not for a Thunder team that was derailed with injuries. P.J. Hairston could be a contributor, but after a less-than-stellar rookie season in which he shot 30.1% from behind the arc, the prospect of increasing his role doesn’t bode well for a team looking to make the playoffs.

Smith can be a reliable and somewhat efficient offensive weapon. After being traded to Cleveland, his slash line improved from .402/.356/.692 in New York to .425/.390/.818. He was simply taking better shots. He went from being a second option on offense for the Knicks to arguably the fifth option (LeBron James is option one and two), and he mostly played within his lane. Kemba Walker, Al Jefferson and Batum would all rank ahead of him on offensive totem pole should he sign with Charlotte, which would give him a poor man’s version of what he had on the court with the Cavs. Signing with the Hornets would aid Smith in centralizing his focus on basketball as well.

“I think [Cleveland] is the best situation for me, ’cause there’s nothing but basketball. There’s nothing you expect but basketball. There’s nothing, there’s no going out, there’s no late nights. There’s video games, basketball and basketball. So it’s a great thing, ’cause I go back to where I came from,” Smith said after being traded last season.

Nobody is mistaking the city of Charlotte for New York, Los Angeles or Miami in terms of its nightlife scene, so relocating to the Queen City may give the 29-year-old a similar environment to the one in which he thrived in Cleveland.

This is purely speculative, as the Hornets have not been linked to Smith in free agency, but adding the shooting guard makes sense for the team from an on-court perspective. Smith’s off-court antics, coupled with the franchise’s recent disaster signing of Stephenson, as Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors discussed in his weekly chat, may impede a potential pairing. Charlotte clearly intends to compete for a playoff spot this season, but the team has noticeable flaws on its roster. The expected rise in the salary cap over the next few seasons, along with the team’s ability to use the stretch provision, should mitigate the risk of offering Smith a two-year deal worth the mid-level exception, and the Hornets should take the opportunity to add talent at such a minimal cost.

What kind of deal do you think Smith will end up signing? Leave a comment to let us know.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Boozer

August 2nd, 2015 at 11:00pm CST by Will Joseph

Unrestricted free agent Carlos Boozer is one of the biggest names still on the market. A big reason for Boozer being one of the final chips to fall is his age. The summer was filled with marquee free agent big men — and ones that are in their prime — landing lucrative deals. Boozer, on the other hand, will turn 34 in November.

The man can still play, though. The veteran can still help a contending team with his scoring and rebounding. That is why Boozer still has interest from at least a few teams for his services.

Feb 25, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Carlos Boozer (5) reacts during the second half against the Utah Jazz at EnergySolutions Arena. The Lakers won 100-97. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Courtesy of USA TODAY Sports Images

The Knicks, Rockets and Mavericks continue to have interest in signing Boozer, according to Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops. Scotto first identified the Knicks as among the teams eyeing the Rob Pelinka client earlier this month. Marc Berman of the New York Post reported soon thereafter that the Knicks had engaged in internal conversations about him but hadn’t made a formal pursuit and then labeled New York’s interest in Boozer as “tepid.” Whether as a starter or reserve, Boozer would be a nice piece to add from the Knicks’ perspective because the team, as presently constructed, would start either Derrick Williams or Kyle O’Quinn at power forward (unless Carmelo Anthony sees time there) with little depth after that in the frontcourt. Chris Broussard of ESPN.com said the Mavs and Rockets were among teams interested in Boozer just before free agency began, while Broussard later heard that the Mavs were one of four teams in talks with the former two-time All-Star.

At this point in the summer, financial flexibility — or lack thereof — is a big factor. The Knicks and Mavericks have access to the $2.814MM room exception. The Rockets are in a more difficult situation because they only have roughly $2.3MM left on their mid-level exception to spend but would trigger a hard cap if they gave any of it to Boozer. Houston also has No. 32 pick Montrezl Harrell who remains unsigned.

There are plenty of more potential suitors for Boozer, according to reports. Several other teams, including the Clippers, Spurs, Raptors, Pelicans, Nuggets, Nets, Lakers and Heat, have reportedly been interested in Boozer over the last month, but it’s unclear if any of them remain in the mix. Boozer and the Clippers reportedly had mutual interest.

In Boozer’s 13-year career, he has averaged 16.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. In a somewhat limited role with the Lakers last season, Boozer produced a pretty solid season. He had 11.8 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game in 23.8 minutes per game.

If he’s looking to play for a team with a strong chance to challenge for a championship, the Clippers and Rockets would both seem like logical choices because they each have assembled another quality team, especially considering the Clippers’ re-signing of DeAndre Jordan. Boozer would add even more depth and experience to either team’s frontcourt. Boozer has expressed a willingness to come off the bench for any team he signs with, according to Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Monta Ellis

June 28th, 2015 at 8:56am CST by ChrisCrouse

Monta Ellis entered the league with great expectations for himself. As a senior in high school, Ellis had college coaches as well as NBA scouts regularly attending his games. In 2005, former Mississippi State assistant coach Phil Cunningham heavily recruited Ellis to play for the university. Cunningham laid out the facts for the guard. He told Ellis the expected salaries of each first-round pick and explained the difference between what Chris Paul, a projected top pick in the NBA draft, would make compared to someone drafted toward the end of the first round.

“If you come to Mississippi State for one year, you’re going to be the best player in the SEC. You’ll be MVP of the SEC.” Cunningham told Ellis, according to Jonathan Abrams of Grantland in a full-length article that’s worth a reread. “You’ll probably be first-team All-American. You think if you come here for one year, you can’t be as good as Chris Paul and be a top pick in the draft next year and make this type of money as opposed to going in right now and [then] you’re locked into this lower spot?”

Ellis then looked back at Cunningham, and firmly told the coach that he was already better than Paul.

Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Since he was drafted 40th overall by the Warriors in the 2006 draft, the 6’3″ guard has played with that level of confidence. In 2010, he called himself the second best player in the league, deferring only to Kobe Bryant. Yet when his six year, $66MM contract expired after the 2012/13 season, Ellis’ stock was at a low point.

The Mavs signed Ellis to a three year, $25MM contract and during his initial season in Dallas, he was arguably the team’s most valuable player. The Mavs made the playoffs and pushed the Spurs to the brink before falling in the first round. At the time, it appeared that Dallas had found a bargain in its contract with Ellis, and it seemed like Ellis had found a long-term home.

A year later, his future isn’t as clear. Ellis has always been a liability on defense and the Mavs felt the need to upgrade the defense in their backcourt, which led to their ill-advised midseason trade for Rajon Rondo. Rondo’s presence on the team left Ellis to play off the ball more often, which is a role that he isn’t best suited for. Ellis had a dreadful second half of the season. He only made 16.9% of his three-point attempts after the All-Star break, but his numbers improved during the postseason when Rondo was putatively sidelined because of a back injury, one that was reportedly a ruse to cover a mutual parting of ways. Ellis isn’t the best spot-up shooter, but he shot a competent 36.8% on left corner threes and 35.0% from the right, according to NBA.com, better marks than players like Goran Dragic and Joe Johnson, to name a few. This advocates that Ellis can fit onto a team that doesn’t plan on making him a primary ball handler, something that could broaden his list of potential suitors.

Ellis only made 26.7% of his three-point shots from above the key. This, coupled with his playmaking ability, suggests that allowing him to be the primary ball handler is the best strategy for the team that employs him. Ellis chose not to exercise his player option worth $8.72MM with the Mavs in search of a more lucrative deal. Dallas reportedly has no intention of giving Ellis the raise he seeks and the team was apparently poised to try to trade the 29-year-old if he had opted in. It appears likely that he will be calling another city home during the 2015/16 season.

Ellis’ body of work probably warrants an eight-figure salary, as Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors wrote in the Mavs’ offseason outlook. The shooting guard is reportedly eyeing the Hawks, while the Heat and Pacers are interested in the Mississippi native. The Hawks have slightly less than $39.3MM in commitments against a projected $67.1MM cap, but the team is expected to try to retain its free agents, which would most likely bring them over the cap. The Heat have roughly $43MM in commitments for next season. The team has a lucrative offer earmarked for Dragic and also has interest in retaining Luol Deng, who has a player option worth $10.152MM. Miami also has to think about fitting in a potential raise for Dwyane Wade. The Heat presumably views signing Ellis as a backup plan if Wade decides to leave South Beach. Even if Wade departs, with the Heat’s current cap situation, the team would be hard-pressed to shoehorn in a potential $10MM annual salary for Ellis.

Indiana seems like a more logical destination for the shooting guard. The Pacers had slightly more than $36MM in guaranteed salary for 2015/16 as the offseason dawned, but player options for David West and Roy Hibbert loomed as potential complications. Hibbert apparently is opting into the last year of his deal, worth over $15.5MM. West is reportedly opting out of his contract and is reportedly favoring the Knicks as his next team. If the power forward departs, the team could have some $10MM in cap space to play with.

From a basketball standpoint, Indiana offers a good situation for the Relativity Sports client. The Pacers are one of more stable franchises in the NBA and they employ one of the better coaches in the league. George Hill would seemingly be a perfect fit next to Ellis in the backcourt. Hill is a plus defender and he has shown he can be effective without dominating the ball. Ellis could solidify the team’s guard rotation and give the franchise the additional playmaker it’s lacked since Lance Stephenson left town last offseason.

Ellis has connections to a few other franchises. Magic coach Scott Skiles coached Ellis in Milwaukee and Magic assistant coach Mario Elie coached him when he played in Golden State. Ellis played under Nuggets coach Michael Malone while he a Warrior and he has a great deal of respect for his former assistant coach. Both teams have the cap flexibility to accommodate a contract for Ellis. Still, Denver is rebuilding, so an Ellis signing wouldn’t fit in with its projected blueprint. The Magic have a young core and GM Rob Hennigan has hit the veteran market in the past to supplement the roster. However, Ellis’ outside shooting and defensive deficiencies would make him an awkward fit in Orlando.

Ellis hasn’t quite lived up to the superstar status that he projected for himself when he entered the league. Yet, he has the ability to be a major contributor on a real contender. It’s just a matter of finding the correct role and the right supporting cast that will allow him to flourish.

What do you think Ellis will make on his next deal, and where do you think he’ll end up? Let us know in the comments.