Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Greg Monroe

March 27th, 2014 at 4:03pm CST by Chuck Myron

Most restricted free agents as valuable as Greg Monroe is are virtual shoo-ins to return to their teams. That’s not the case with the 6’11” former Georgetown Hoya whose departure would appear to offer the Pistons the easiest way to dismantle their clumsy, super-sized frontcourt. Much hinges on just who the Pistons will have running their basketball operations this summer, with the job security of Joe Dumars in doubt. Most would probably conclude that the teaming of Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith has been a failed experiment, but even if Smith and Drummond continue to be unmovable assets, for completely different reasons, it doesn’t necessarily mean Monroe is a goner.

The Pistons could sign Monroe this summer and trade him at the deadline, although his statistical decline this season suggests that his value would take a hit if Detroit continues to play him with its current set of misfit parts. His points, rebounds and assists per game — and per minute — are all down, and his PER is at a career-low 17.9. Monroe no doubt bears some responsibility for his own declining numbers, but it seems most logical to suggest that playing out of position and amid tight offensive spacing has been the primary reason behind his regression. He might not be all that enthusiastic about playing under these conditions for another year, but the Pistons wield the power to match any offer Monroe takes from another club.

Still, part of what makes Monroe such an intriguing case is the strong possibility that other clubs find him significantly more valuable than whoever will be making basketball decisions for Detroit does. Agent David Falk is averse to extensions for less than the maximum salary, and it never appeared as though the Pistons were willing to go that high. Still, Monroe is only 23 years old, and with averages of 15.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game with a 19.8 PER over the past three seasons, there’s plenty of reason to believe that at least one team would be willing to give him the max. That’s especially true since Monroe qualifies for a max that’s equivalent to only 25% of the salary cap, significantly less than the max salaries that more experienced players can make. The precise amount won’t be clear until after the July Moratorium, but it will likely entail a starting salary close to $14MM a year.

Falk has mastered the art of linking a client with the team that holds him in higher regard than most, having done so most recently with Roy Hibbert of the Pacers. Hibbert, who like Monroe is a former Georgetown big man, wasn’t widely considered worthy of a max deal when the Blazers agreed to sign him to an offer sheet for that amount in 2012, forcing the Pacers to quickly swoop in with an identical offer to retain him.

Five Eastern Conference teams are reportedly already planning to pursue Monroe, and one of them is probably the Wizards, who would apparently like to bring him back to the same city where he played his college ball. The Bobcats and Warriors had interest in trading for Monroe at the deadline, an idea that Detroit resisted short of an extraordinary offer. The resistance to part with Monroe in advance of his free agency indicates that Dumars and company are by no means anxious to see him go. The Pistons are hoping to re-sign him to a contract similar to the four-year, $49MM deal the Thunder gave Serge Ibaka in 2012, as TNT’s David Aldridge wrote in February. Aldridge believes the team will settle for paying the max if another club makes him such an offer, but given Detroit’s inability to find a taker for Smith, it’s not unreasonable to believe otherwise. A max deal for Monroe would require a commitment of nearly half the salary cap to two parts of a three-man unit that simply hasn’t worked.

The possibility of a sign-and-trade is in play. The Pistons could use their ability to match offers as leverage to gain assets from Monroe suitors. Dumars was on the other end of such a transaction this summer, when he acquired Brandon Jennings for three players including Brandon Knight and Khris Middleton, a pair of inexpensive young talents with upside. Detroit can’t expect to receive a player of Monroe’s caliber in this sort of swap, but the big man’s status as a restricted free agent means the club could reap assets more valuable than the ones conveyed in many sign-and-trades.

Monroe is certainly no superstar, but a young, productive interior player who stands 6’11” needn’t be a marquee name to command a max deal. His down year this season raises legitimate concerns, but I think he’ll nonetheless be able to sign a max contract in the summer. Whether it’s the Pistons or another team that winds up shelling out the money depends on just who is running the front office in Detroit. If the new GM is a confident, aggressive sort who feels like there’d be an avenue to solve the team’s frontcourt mess even with Monroe on the books for max money, the big man will stay put. If owner Tom Gores installs someone who wants to play it safe and take the path of least resistance, Monroe will be wearing a different uniform.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kris Humphries

March 24th, 2014 at 7:39pm CST by Zachary Links

So far in our Free Agent Stock Watch series, we’ve profiled Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and LeBron James. Today, we look at Celtics forward Kris Humphries. While it’s true that one of these things is not like the other, the 29-year-old big man could get some serious attention when he hits the open market this summer.

Humphries, a late lottery pick of the Jazz in 2004, had a rather unremarkable career until January of 2010 when he was traded by the Mavericks along with Shawne Williams to the Nets for Eduardo Najera. The Nets quickly discarded Williams, but Humphries was given an opportunity to shine in New Jersey and made the most of it, posting 10 PPG and 10.4 RPG in a then career-high ~28 minutes per contest. Over the next two years, he proved that his stint with the Nets was no fluke as he proved to be a reliable low post scoring option and brought the tenacity on the glass that center Brook Lopez seemed to lack.

The move across the Hudson River over to Brooklyn may have been a step forward for the organization, but it was quickly apparent in the 2012/13 season that Hump left his best basketball in the Garden State. While he was supposed to be a fixture in the Nets rotation after inking a two-year, $24MM deal in July, he was bounced from Avery Johnson‘s rotation and couldn’t reclaim his spot under his replacement, P.J. Carlesimo. After a season to forget, Humphries found himself on the less-glamorous end of one of the biggest trades in NBA history.

Once again, Humphries was able to make the most of his situation as he was (eventually) able to get significant playing time with the rebuilding Celtics. In 20.2 minutes per contest, Humphries has averaged 8.5 PPG and 6.1 RPG and put up a PER of 18.5, an even stronger mark than his best years in New Jersey. The veteran has said that he would like to stay in Boston, but he could see lucrative offers come in from multiple suitors. It’s tough to say where Humphries will wind up, but in a league where size and toughness are valued, the big man should be in line for a nice payday.

Free Agent Stock Watch Series

March 19th, 2014 at 8:58am CST by Chuck Myron

The NBA’s regular season ends in four weeks. That means players on expiring contracts are running out of opportunities to prove their worth, and that’s especially true for anyone on a team that isn’t bound for the postseason. So, it’s time to start looking at soon-to-be free agents across the league and gauge their value.

Hoops Rumors will examine several players who are a part of the 2014 free agent class. Our Free Agent Stock Watch pieces will explore what a player brings to a club, what sort of earnings he can expect on his next contract, teams that could be in the market for the player, and where the player might want to end up, along with any other relevant factors.

Below is a list of the players we’ve profiled so far. They’re in alphabetical order by last name, and potential restricted free agents will have an (R) by their names. You can find this list, which we’ll continue to update, anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features.”

Free Agent Stock Watch: LeBron James

March 18th, 2014 at 4:59pm CST by Chuck Myron

If LeBron James has learned anything in the nearly four years since he took his talents to South Beach, it’s not to create another frenzy about his next free agent move. This time, the four-time MVP’s choice will simply be a decision, and not “The Decision,” the title of the ESPN telecast on which he announced his intention to sign with the Heat in 2010. James told media at the beginning of the season that he wouldn’t address his ability to opt out of his contract and hit the market this summer, and he’s largely kept his word. The vacuum of information from James himself has led to speculation and rumors, but not nearly as much as has revolved around Carmelo Anthony, who made it clear before the season that he wants to opt out and become a free agent.

Another reason why there hasn’t been much hype around James is the success that he and the Heat are enjoying. There’s been no 27-game win streak like last year, but the Heat remain a strong title contender, and if they win their third straight championship, it would seem counterintuitive for James not to try for a fourth. James, in a rare break from his silence about his potential free agency, said last month that he couldn’t envision himself leaving the Heat, though he insisted that he won’t make up his mind until the season is over. A report soon thereafter from Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio indicated that most NBA executives reportedly feel as though it’s a two-team race between the Heat and the Cavaliers, with the Heat way out in front. Amico wrote much the same today, though he cautions that most of it is merely educated guesswork from people around the league.

A confidant of James recently revealed to Frank Isola of the New York Daily News that Phil Jackson‘s arrival in New York would prompt the superstar to at least consider signing with the Knicks. That wouldn’t have otherwise happened thanks in part to James’ falling out with the Creative Artists Agency, his former representation and a firm with close ties to the Knicks. New York remains a long shot regardless of Jackson and CAA because the Knicks lack cap flexibility for next summer. The team would surely do all that it could to trade away salary and clear room for James if he wanted to sign there, but that wouldn’t be an easy task, particularly with Amar’e Stoudemire‘s cap-clogging $23.4MM salary for 2014/15.

Still, a lack of cap flexibility didn’t stop Brian Windhorst and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com from writing in February that the Clippers are “perhaps the most serious competitor” the Heat have for James. A source close to James told Windhorst and Shelburne that the 29-year-old will consider teams without cap room. That means the Heat would have to cooperate in a sign-and-trade, and executives around the league think they’d ask for Blake Griffin from the Clippers if James insisted on such a move. Miami would probably hold out for similar ransoms from other capped-out teams, and James could be less inclined to sign with those clubs if they’re stripped of other significant talent. The Clippers could work out salary-dumping moves with other teams to open cap space, but those trades would also probably mean parting with a key contributor or two.

James, like the other two Heat stars, isn’t planning a hometown discount for the Heat, according to Mitch Lawrence of the New York Daily News, and that suggests that the Rich Paul client is looking for the maximum payday wherever he goes. He could make slightly more than $115MM over five years from the Heat and close to $85.5MM over four years from another team, as Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors explained before the season. That nearly $30MM chasm would be mitigated by a new contract that gives James the maximum salary in what would otherwise be the fifth year of a deal with the Heat, meaning the difference is actually only about $6MM. Still, that doesn’t take into account changes that could come about if the league and players, as expected, opt out of the collective bargaining agreement in the summer of 2017, when James would only be three years into his next deal. There’s no telling if James will still be an all-world force after four more years, when he’ll be 33. So, a legitimate financial incentive exists for James to sign a new five-year max deal with the Heat this summer.

Stll, the most lucrative path might be for James to opt into his current deal for at least one more season, since that would give him a higher 2014/15 salary than he could get in any new contract. Amico’s latest report casts that as unlikely, given the general assumption that most NBA players enjoy being the subject of free agent recruitment. It’s certainly no given that James will opt out, however. I wouldn’t be surprised if he opts in, particularly since it would allow him to make as much money as possible next season while still granting him the flexibility to make a choice again next summer, when he’d hold a player option for 2015/16.

The notion that James might not even become a free agent this summer makes every team aside from the Heat something of a long shot to sign him. The Cavs make sense as the leading non-Miami candidate for him, since James has spent the vast majority of his life in northeast Ohio and still owns a house in his native Akron. Of course, James also has a house in South Florida, too, and he didn’t win a championship until he fled Cleveland. The Cavs don’t appear anywhere close to title contention these days. The odds that they’ll overtake the Hawks for the final playoff berth this season are growing worse, seemingly by the day. Kyrie Irving is already a marquee player, and former No. 4 overall picks Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson are on the rise, but even with James, the Cavs wouldn’t approach the sort of “super team” label that was affixed to the Heat in 2010. The presence of James would ostensibly make Cleveland a more attractive free agent destination, but no superstars signed with the team when James was there the first time.

There’s a team that’s even lower in this year’s standings that might have a better shot at surrounding James with free agent talent. There’s been precious little talk connecting James to the Lakers since a July report from Shelburne and Windhorst noted that the Lakers had him in their sights for 2014. That was before the Lakers signed Kobe Bryant to a two-year, $48.5MM extension that kicks in for 2014/15, compromising the team’s cap space. They’d still have enough room for James this summer, plus perhaps another top-tier free agent in 2015, when Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo, LaMarcus Aldridge and others could become available. Bryant’s ability to recover from a season lost almost in its entirety because of injuries could be the stumbling block to their pursuit of James, since he won’t have a chance to see the 35-year-old shooting guard perform in an NBA game this year. If there’s fear about how Wade, at 32, will hold up, the same is true about Bryant.

The uncertainty over where James will end up next season will make his choice a major story at some point, regardless of how little insight he gives us about his intentions. It won’t be like 2010, but James probably won’t exactly get to enjoy a quiet start to his summer vacation. At least a few teams will probably hold off on other business until they know what James is going to do. I expect he’ll attempt to defuse the hubbub with as quick a decision as possible, and if he feels strongly about staying with the Heat, he might make an announcement well in advance of July 1st, when he’s set to become a free agent. As soon as the Heat are either eliminated from contention or lift the Larry O’Brien trophy, the attention will zero in on the league’s pre-eminent star. What happens from there will shape the 2014 free agent market, the 2014/15 season, and, depending on his choice, the 2015 free agent market, too.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chris Bosh

March 6th, 2014 at 9:36pm CST by Charlie Adams

Chris Bosh didn’t command as much star power as LeBron James or Dwyane Wade when the trio grouped together in the summer of 2010, but he’s played a huge part in the Heat’s three consecutive finals appearances and might have surpassed Wade as the second most productive member of the Big Three. In fact, the first installment of Hoops Rumors’ 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings has Bosh ranked as the third biggest name set to test the market this summer behind only LBJ and Carmelo Anthony. Bosh’s contract will afford him the option to remain a member of the Heat if he so chooses, but a report has indicated the big man will likely choose to exercise the early-termination option on his contract and enter free agency to seek a max deal.

After being selected fourth overall in the 2003 NBA draft, Bosh quickly made a name for himself in Toronto. The club saw him as its cornerstone to build around after Vince Carter was shipped off to the Nets in 2004, and he lived up to the expectations, to be sure. He holds the Raptors franchise records for points, rebounds, blocks, and minutes played. He helped lead the Raptors to their first division title and quickly found himself as a fan favorite north of the border. However, after seven seasons in Toronto, Bosh’s desire to win a championship led him to decide to sign in Miami so he could play with LeBron and D-Wade.

A report earlier today indicated that Bosh would like to play until he’s 36 years old, and that desire might factor into his decision to opt of his contract early. Although still a very efficient player, Bosh’s best years might be behind him. He turns 30 years old this month and is likely interested in locking up a long-term deal. If he chooses to stay in a Heat uniform with his current contract, he’ll have next season guaranteed at $20.6MM and a player option for the 2015/16 campaign worth $22.1MM. It’s tough to turn down a guaranteed $42MM, but opting out would give a team the chance to offer Bosh a four- or a five-year contract on which the big man could stand to make even more money over a longer period of time.

Waiting until his pact with the Heat is up means risking serious injury or a production drop-off, which would hurt his ability to secure a lucrative deal down the road. It’d certainly be possible for Bosh to exercise his early-termination option only to land another long-term deal with Miami. However, although the Heat could technically offer Bosh more money in free agency than any other squad since they own his Bird Rights, doing so would greatly limit their flexibility in signing other players in years to come, so they might be hesitant to do so. Bosh took a discount to play with James and Wade in Miami in 2010, and reports have indicated he won’t be interested in giving up guaranteed money this time around.

Bosh has said he’d like to remain in Miami for the remainder of his career, but we know that such statements don’t always hold true. Rumors have circulated suggesting that he’s actually the most likely of the Big Three to leave Miami this summer, due in large part to the temptation of taking on more of a leading role for another squad. The Heat haven’t utilized Bosh in the same way the Raptors did. His usage rate dropped from 28.7% during his last year in Toronto to 23.5% in his first year in Miami, and his value has often been overshadowed by the success of James and Wade. Bosh has made it known that his main priority is playing for a winning team, but it’s tough to imagine that a chance to play in a leading role isn’t one of his top wishes as well.

The Mavericks are one team said to have interest in Bosh, and a move to Dallas would make a lot of sense for the Creative Artists Agency client. Bosh was born and raised in the Lone Star State, and the Mavs will likely have the flexibility to retain Dirk Nowitzki and target another big name since we’ve heard that Nowitzki won’t be asking for an outrageous contract this summer. Bosh mostly played the four earlier in his career, but he’s recently been more of a center, and a frontcourt pairing of Dirk and Bosh would have the potential to be a headache for opposing defenses.

Nothing is written in stone, and Bosh might very well end up deciding to remain a member of the Heat for at least one more season by choosing not to exercise his early-termination option. His value isn’t the same at age 30 as it was at age 26, but he’s shooting an impressive 52.7% from the floor and a solid 36.6% from beyond the arc. With efficiency numbers just a smidgen below his career marks, Bosh will likely be able to garner a sizable level of interest from teams around the league this offseason, and he’ll be able to make his money whatever he decides to do. It’s just a question of whether he feels like staying in Miami or taking his talents elsewhere.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carmelo Anthony

March 5th, 2014 at 3:57pm CST by Chuck Myron

Carmelo Anthony may be only No. 2 on the debut edition of the Hoops Rumors 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings, but no one’s summer plans have generated as much chatter as his have. Last year’s scoring champion touched off the conversation before the season when he declared he’d exercise his early termination option and hit the market after 2013/14. The refusal of LeBron James to discuss his own opportunity for free agency has combined with the New York media spotlight to put a sharp focus on Anthony ever since.

The Knicks star is no stranger to all the attention, having been at the center of “Melo-drama” as he pushed the Nuggets to trade him during the 2010/11 season, the last time he faced the prospect of unrestricted free agency the following summer. He signed an extension as part of the deal that brought him to New York, and he’s not putting nearly as much pressure on the Knicks as he put on Denver last time. He told reporters during the All-Star break that his priority is to remain with New York, and that he’d be willing to do so at a discount. At the same time, he said that he’d meet with Knicks management to discuss their plans to return the club to contention before making his final decision.

It’ll be hard for the Knicks to construct a convincing presentation for Anthony if he’s indeed focused on what the team can do this summer instead of 2015, as Tuesday night’s report from Frank Isola of the New York Daily News indicates. New York’s commitments for next season exceed the projected salary cap, and that doesn’t even take a new contract for Anthony into consideration. The team rejected an offer of a late first-round pick from the Thunder for Iman Shumpert before the deadline, demonstrating that while there are trade chips of at least moderate value on the Knicks roster, the team isn’t particularly anxious to use them. New York has little other assets capable of enticing a team to give up an intriguing player or draft pick in return. Tyson Chandler is questioning whether he’d want to re-sign with the Knicks in 2015, but if the team wants to get out ahead of the market and trade him this summer, it likely faces an uphill battle finding palatable offers for the 31-year-old who’s showing his age.

The Knicks appear stuck for 2014/15, capable of making only lateral moves, at best. That’s seemingly why so many New York-based writers have portrayed it as increasingly likely that Anthony would leave this summer with each successive loss this season, interpreting nearly every one of his postgame remarks as another hint at his intentions. When Anthony addressed the subject directly at the All-Star break, he made his affection for the Knicks clear. It’d be surprising if anything the Knicks do on the court between now and the end of the season influenced Anthony’s belief in the club’s long-term future. The concern is what happens once 2013/14 is in the books, and that’s cause for legitimate worry.

Anthony’s assertion that he’d take a discount to stay in New York suggests the financial advantage the Knicks have might not be as valuable as it would be if money were his chief concern. He can sign a five-year deal worth slightly more than $129MM if he stays with the Knicks, or a four-year contract worth nearly $95.9MM with another team, as Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors detailed earlier this season. Anthony could make up much of that more-than-$33MM difference in the first year of the contract that follows, but Anthony would still come out ahead financially if he took the max from the Knicks. He could be in line for even more money if he opts in for next season, when his contract calls for a salary higher than the one he’d make next year under a new deal, but Anthony has said multiple times he intends to hit free agency.

A recent report suggested the Knicks were the only team willing to make a max offer to the Leon Rose client, indicating that Anthony would have to give up quite a bundle of cash to pass on New York. I’d be surprised if a maximum-salary suitor doesn’t emerge at some point between now and July, even if there isn’t a team planning such an offer now. Still, some of the most appealing destinations might not be in play for the former No. 3 overall pick. The Lakers appear lukewarm, at best, on Anthony, and while he reportedly views a Chicago address as more tempting than L.A., the Bulls would have to unload key players via trade to clear room for a maximum-salary offer, making their pursuit unlikely. The Clippers would have to perform even more complicated salary cap gymnastics to accommodate a max deal for Anthony.

There are ways to acquire marquee free agents even for franchises that are capped out, as the Warriors demonstrated last season when they snagged Andre Iguodala via sign-and-trade. Such a move would require Anthony and at least two teams to come to an agreement, and other players and teams might have to get involved in the negotiations, too. Such an arrangement is hard to pull off, so Anthony will likely be limited to either re-signing with the Knicks or joining a team with cap space. There are plenty of intriguing clubs with a relatively easy path to clearing the room necessary to throw a max deal at Anthony, and perhaps the Heat could target him if Miami’s stars go their separate ways. Still, there’s been no legitimate suggestion from either the Heat or Anthony’s camp that any of them have seriously considered that.

Anthony won’t be without options. Just how many there will be for him likely depends on how much of a discount he’s willing to settle for. The future of the Knicks would look increasingly brighter with each dollar Anthony gives up, but that’s for 2015 and beyond. Anthony’s commitment to New York will likely be tested not just by his willingness to make a financial sacrifice, but also by his patience to play for a winner. He turns 30 on May 29th, a little more than a month before free agency begins. Whether he sees that milestone as just another day or as a warning that he’s on the backside of his career could be the most important question of the NBA’s summer ahead.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Daniel Gibson

September 22nd, 2013 at 12:58pm CST by Chuck Myron

The man affectionately known as "Boobie" seemed destined for a lengthy NBA career when he started a pair of NBA Finals games as a rookie for the Cavs in 2007. Daniel Gibson had enough staying power with the Cavs to remain with the team longer than nearly everyone else on that Finals roster, but the 27-year-old's NBA career stands at a crossroads now that he and Cleveland have finally parted ways. The Sixers are the only NBA team that's been reported to have interest in Gibson this month. The Rockets abandoned their pursuit from the summer, and while the Knicks, Pacers and Bucks were mentioned in connection with Gibson in July, they appear no closer to signing him more than two months later.

Gibson's role in the Cavs offense has declined precipitously the past two seasons, even though he didn't play too many fewer minutes per game last season than in 2010/11, when he poured in a career high 11.6 points per contest on nearly 10 shots a night. He averaged only 5.4 field goal attempts in 2012/13, eliminating his penetration game in favor of three-point shooting. He took only 29 shots all season from less than 10 feet away from the basket, according to Basketball-Reference. Alas, he shot just 34.4% from three-point range last season, the worst mark of a career in which he's made 40.7% of his treys. He wound up scoring fewer points per minutes played last season than in any of his seven NBA seasons.

Gibson has proven a valuable team defender for most of his time in the league, but last season, the Cavs gave up fewer points per 100 possessions with Gibson on the bench than they did with him in the lineup, per NBA.com. That's only been the case during one other season in his career, as Gibson generally remained attentive to the defensive end even after the Cavs replaced coach Mike Brown with the more offensively oriented Byron Scott.

Some teams may perceive last season's performance as a warning that Gibson's quickness is dissapating, even though he's still two and a half years shy of his 30th birthday. At 6'2", he's too short to guard many of the league's shooting guards, so he must display the ability to keep up with point guards. The Cavs have played him extensively at both guard positions, but he's never been the pass-first sort. Still, he showed he was capable of efficiently distributing the ball during the season after LeBron James left, averaging 3.0 assists and 1.2 turnovers per game, the only year in which he's approached a 3-to-1 ratio. If he demonstrates in workouts that he's capable of duplicating that level of efficiency, he'll significantly improve his chances of finding another NBA job.

I can't imagine there won't be another NBA team that gives him a shot, even if he isn't someone who can embrace the role of a passing point guard. Front offices probably give last season's defensive slippage more credence than his off year from behind the arc, since it would be odd for his touch to vanish long-term, even though his three-point percentage has declined in each of the last three seasons. Perhaps that has to do with where those three-point shots are coming from. In 2009/10, when he made a career-best 47.7% of his three-pointers, he clustered his attempts in the left corner. He began taking them from all around the arc under Scott, and last season he made significantly more from the right corner than he did from the left. Finding the right coach with the right system that can get Gibson to where he's most comfortable on the floor will be key.

Guys who can stick 40% of their threes are a commodity in the NBA, so Gibson and his representatives at ASM Sports shouldn't go without an offer this season. He might not receive a training camp invitation, but if he stays in shape and doesn't sign an overseas deal without an NBA out, he'll likely find himself back on an NBA roster at some point this year. He said in the spring that he'd be open to returning to the Cavs, and even though the team has no apparent interest, that doesn't rule out a reunion between Gibson and Brown, who coached him for four seasons. Hawks GM Danny Ferry, who drafted Gibson in the second round in 2006, is another who could give him a shot, though that's just my speculation.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Lou Amundson

September 20th, 2013 at 10:28pm CST by Chuck Myron

Seventeen days have gone by since agent Mark Bartelstein said Lou Amundson would strike a deal within the week, and the veteran power forward remains unsigned. Amundson has one more week left before NBA training camps start, and it's beginning to look like he'll still be looking for work when the balls start bouncing.

The 30-year-old has never wowed with his ability in seven seasons after going undrafted out of UNLV. He's only once signed for more than the minimum salary, landing a two year, $4.6MM deal from the Warriors in 2010 after averaging career highs of 4.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game for a Suns team that went to the Western Conference Finals. He's nonetheless maintained a consistent presence on NBA rosters, appearing in 327 games while making just seven starts in his career.

Amundson's shooting percentage has declined in each of the past four seasons, hitting an ugly 39.5% last year, when he split the season between the Timberwolves, Bulls and Pelicans. He has a better impact on the defensive end. During the three years in which Amundson saw his greatest amounts of minutes per contest, his Suns and Warriors teams were better defensively with him on the floor in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. That's somewhat misleading, since the opposite was true in 2011/12, the only other season he averaged at least 10 minutes a night. That year he was with the Pacers, a better defensive squad than the high-scoring outfits he'd been a part of in Phoenix and Golden State. It suggests Amundson is an average interior defender, which isn't necessarily unappealing if he's on the fringes of the rotation, as he has been the past couple of seasons.

The 6'9" Amundson has always been proficient on the boards, notching 10.1 rebounds per 36 minutes for his career. His 17.0% rebounding percentage would have put him fourth on the list of the top rebounders still available that Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors put together in early August if he'd averaged enough minutes last season to qualify. Such board work hasn't resulted in NBA jobs for Hamed Haddadi, Johan Petro or Lamar Odom, the three guys on the list who would have been ahead of Amundson, so it's certainly no harbinger of an NBA deal.

The Lakers and Clippers met with Amundson last month, the latest among a sizable group of teams reported to have had interest in him at some point this summer, one that includes the Knicks, Heat, Kings, Mavericks, Hawks, and Pacers. Many of those clubs also pursued Greg Oden, and it seemed then as though they considered Amundson as Plan B. Oden signed a fully guaranteed minimum-salary contract, an arrangement that was less player-friendly than the two-year deal with a player option that he initially agreed to. Perhaps Oden's concession drove down the price for Amundson, who might not be so willing to make a sacrifice of his own, though that's just my speculation.

Amundson signed a guaranteed minimum-salary pact with the Wolves last year, but I'd be surprised to see him do that this time around. He's probably looking at no better than a partial guarantee, if he gets a guarantee at all. Many jobs with overseas teams have been snapped up, but the international market is probably more favorable for Amundson now than it would be in another month or so if he found himself on the chopping block after opting to go to an NBA training camp on a non-guaranteed deal. His best bet is probably signing overseas, and while the idea of opening the season out of the NBA for the first time since 2007 might not appeal to him, it doesn't mean his career in the Association is over. If Amundson can ink a deal with an NBA out or in China, where the season ends early, he could find his way stateside again later in the season, perhaps on what would be the sixth 10-day contract of his career.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Delonte West

September 14th, 2013 at 9:50pm CST by Spencer Lund

NBA teams sometimes deem a player untouchable after off-the-court issues make them a risk for any guaranteed contract. Even serious injury problems won't scare teams as much as when players are considered locker-room problems; the Cavs signed Andrew Bynum to a deal where only $6MM of his $12MM contract this year is guaranteed, with a team option for $12.5MM in 2014/15.

But the trend away from troubled players is never more evident than with former Celtics and Cavaliers guard Delonte West. West hasn't appeard on an NBA court since the 2011/12 season when he averaged 9.6 PPG, 3.2 APG and 1.3 SPG in a shade over 24 minutes a night for the Mavs. The 6'4" guard out of St. Joseph's University shot over 46 percent from the field and better than 35 percent from beyond the arc in his last season with a hungover championship team in Dallas.

But West's troubled behavior during his time in training camp last fall led the Mavs to cut him. West signed with the Development League's Texas Legends, but was tardy in reporting and only played in eight games for the team while averaging 10.4 points and 4.4 assists.

West turned 30 years old in July and after the Knicks and Grizzlies expressed interest earlier in the summer, the Knicks' interest waned. Despite the advocacy of Grizzlies guard Tony Allen, nary a whiff has been rumored about West even after he said he was open to a non-guaranteed deal.

The lack of interest is a little peculair considering the positive reactions to his play at Tim Grgurich's camp in Las Vegas in mid-August. But West's mental health struggles — he suffers from bipolar disorder — and his run-ins with the law over the years have scared teams off.

It's worth noting that Delonte's play on the court has never been the problem. He's shot slightly above league average from 3-point range over his eight-year career (37.2%), and he's averaged over 30 minutes a night for multiple playoff teams and title contenders, like the late 2000s Cavs. He plays hard defense and is an unselfish player who can be a contributor off the bench or as an interim starter.

Plenty of teams need help in the backcourt, but there are a lot of available guards still left on the market, including Richard Hamilton, whose free agent stock Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors assessed last week. But while most of the guards available may fall short of the experience and numbers West can bring to the table, the lack of interest from teams this summer leads one to believe teams are wary of West's issues off a basketball court.

Since the rumored interest by the Knicks, they've re-signed Pablo Prigioni and signed Beno Udrih to backup Raymond Felton. The Grizzlies were West's other potential suitor earlier in the summer, but they've already signed Nick Calathes to a two-year deal worth less than $2MM. While Calathes is talented, the Grizzlies still might want to bring West in to take a closer look during training camp.

Unfortunately, after so many issues completely unrelated to basketball still surrounding West, the talented guard is hovering in absentia after already missing the entirety of the 2012/13 season. If a team does take a chance on him and invites him to training camp, it'll likely they're trying to get a feel for how he meshes with the rigors of NBA life again.

A contender with a strong front office and an experienced coach is the sort of team that seems likely to take a chance on West sometime during the season if he doesn't catch on before training camp. But West's repeated chances to stay in the NBA are slowly dwindling.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Richard Hamilton

September 5th, 2013 at 8:58am CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls were a taxpaying team for the first time in 2012/13, and appear set to pay an even bigger bill in '13/14. However, that doesn't mean the club isn't still trying to cut costs where it can. Like the Lakers with Metta World Peace and the Heat with Mike Miller, the Bulls released a rotation player this summer to reduce team salary, parting ways with Richard Hamilton.

Unlike World Peace and Miller, Hamilton wasn't amnestied, but was on a partially guaranteed contract, so Chicago will only have to pay him $1MM of his $5MM salary. That salary may also be stretched over three years, with Hamilton receiving about $333K in each of the next three seasons. The reduction in his 2013/14 salary likely means the veteran guard will be a little more motivated to secure a new contract — in fact, we heard back in July that Hamilton isn't considering retirement, and is hoping for a bounce-back season in the right situation.

Hamilton, who signed a three-year, $15MM deal with Chicago after the 2011 lockout ended, had a disappointing stint with the Bulls, struggling with injuries and seeing his production slide when he was on the court. In 78 contests over two seasons with the club, the 35-year-old averaged 10.5 PPG and had a shooting line of .438/.337/.833, all down from his career rates.

Still, while those may have been underwhelming numbers for a player earning mid-level money, they're still solid enough to earn him a spot on an NBA bench. The former seventh overall pick was expected to be a starter in Chicago, coming off the bench just five times in his 78 games with the team. But virtually every NBA team has an idea of what its starting lineup will be at this point in the offseason, so if Hamilton catches on with a club now, he'd almost certainly be looking at a role as an eighth or ninth man, at best.

In that role, and at a discount price – perhaps the veteran minimum – Hamilton should still be an effective roster piece, providing a scoring punch for a team's second unit. Even in his last two years in Chicago, Hamilton averaged about 23 minutes in the games he played, so a reduction in his playing time to 15-20 MPG could help him stay fresher and healthier, warding off potential injuries.

We heard earlier this week that the Rockets and Knicks may have some interest in Hamilton, and it's not hard to imagine him fitting in on a few other contenders as well. The Thunder, for instance, appear likely to cut DeAndre Liggins, and could view Hamilton as a poor man's Kevin Martin. If OKC were to sign him to a one-year minimum-salary deal, the team would only be on the hook for about $884K of his $1.4MM salary.

Hamilton says he isn't ready to retire, and his numbers with the Bulls, while not quite as solid as the team may have hoped, suggest he's still got something in the tank. We're only about a month away from the start of the NBA preseason, so there's no guarantee the UConn product will be in camp with a club by then, but I'd be pretty shocked if he doesn't play NBA minutes at some point during the 2013/14 season.

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