Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mo Williams

April 24th, 2013 at 9:43pm CST by Chuck Myron

The last time Mo Williams signed an NBA contract, he had the look of a rising star amid a second-round success story for the ages. He parlayed an all-around performance of 17.3 points, 6.1 assists and 4.8 rebounds a game into a $51.263MM contract that stretched out over six years, a length that wouldn't be allowed under the current collective bargaining agreement. Just one season into the arrangement, Milwaukee traded him to the Cavs, who thought he could be a much-needed second scoring option next to LeBron James. Williams never really became that kind of player in Cleveland, and two more trades later, his value on the open market isn't what it used to be.

His replacements struggled when Williams missed two and a half months with a severely sprained right thumb this season, but the Jazz had a better record when he was out (21-15) than when he played (22-24). The 30-year-old averaged 12.9 PPG this year, his fewest since 2005/06, and he did so on an amount of shot attempts that's held steady the past four seasons. His assists were up over last season, when he primarily played shooting guard next to Chris Paul with the Clippers, but his turnovers jumped as well, and he finished with an assists-to-turnover ratio of 2.28.

Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey praised Williams' performance prior to the injury this season, and indicated the team was open to bringing him back as the team's point guard. When Williams returned, his assists went down by one a game and his shooting percentage dropped from .441 to .418. More importantly, the Jazz failed to make the playoffs, and that may weigh most heavily on Lindsey's mind.

Lindsey and executive vice president of basketball operations Kevin O'Connor are notoriously tight-lipped, so it's hard to say what their opinion of Williams is now. The Jazz only have seven players under contract for next season, meaning the front office has plenty to consider. Negotiating with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap or their replacements is likely the team's first priority, so what happens in the early days of free agency could have a significant effect on Williams' next contract.

The Alabama product's declining play figures to bring about a commensurate decline in salary. The question is how much less Williams will have to take after making $8.5MM this season. He's helped by a class of free agent point guards that's fairly weak after Paul, who's likely to re-sign with the Clippers, and restricted free agents Brandon Jennings and Jeff Teague. Teams will likely be choosing between Williams, Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack. Calderon will probably be the top pick among them, particularly for teams looking for pure, pass-first point guards. Our Luke Adams estimated that Calderon could command three years and more than $20MM on his next deal.

Jack and Williams wound up with precisely the same scoring average this season, though Jack probably played a greater role in his team's offense down the stretch. A team could give Jack an inflated offer to try to scare off the financially inflexible Warriors, and that may mean a similar offer for Williams.

It's more likely Williams winds up with the full mid-level exception, which would be a four-year deal with a starting salary of $5.15MM. Taking the mid-level would allow Williams to sign with teams that are over the cap. He's been with plenty of winning squads of late, but Williams has only once been as far as the conference finals, so winning may be a priority. Williams will be even more likely to sign with a contender if he and agent Mark Bartelstein let teams know he's open to coming off the bench, as he did last season with the Clippers.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Alan Anderson

April 15th, 2013 at 3:14pm CST by Luke Adams

For some four-year veterans poised to hit the free agent market this summer, such as Brandon Jennings or Tyreke Evans, it will be their first opporunity to go through the process. That's not the case for four-year players across the board though. For Alan Anderson, who debuted back in 2005 with the Bobcats and is currently finishing up the fourth season of his NBA career, free agency is all too familiar.

"I've been playing on one-year [contracts] since Charlotte," Anderson told Hoops Rumors on Saturday. "One year, one year, one year. I've been a free agent every year."

Anderson's playing career has included stops in Italy, Russia, Israel, and Spain, but he received his first chance at consistent, full-season NBA minutes this season in Toronto, after the Raptors signed him to a one-year, minimum-salary deal last summer. The 30-year-old has taken advantage of the opportunity by having his best year yet, averaging 10.7 PPG and a 12.5 PER, both career-highs, in 63 contests with the Raps.

Coming off his most successful season to date, Anderson will be revisiting that familiar free agent process this July, but he should find he has a little more leverage than usual this time around. His production may not necessarily earn him a multiyear contract, or a salary worth a whole lot more than the minimum, but there should be no shortage of teams looking for scorers off the bench. Anderson has exhibited the ability to score baskets in bunches, as he did last month when he scored 35 against the Knicks, and can shoot the three (.352 career 3PT%), which should ensure he draws interest.

With the Raptors focusing on finishing the regular season on a winning streak, Anderson told Hoops Rumors than he hasn't started thinking too much about his pending free agency. However, when he does begin weighing his options, Anderson will be looking for a situation where playing time will be available.

"Whoever has a need for me," Anderson said. "I want to go somewhere and play. I don't want to sit on the bench."

The Raptors could be facing something of a salary-cap crunch this offseason, with about $73MM in commitments on their books for 2013/14. They have the amnesty clause available, and it's widely expected that they'll try to move Andrea Bargnani to cut costs, but the team could still end up in the tax. Of course, that shouldn't necessarily preclude the Raptors from bringing back Anderson — the club will have to fill out its roster somehow. It may limit the team's ability to offer Anderson much of a raise, however.

Assuming the Raptors have the interest and the flexibility to bring Anderson back, returning to Toronto would be the veteran forward's preference, after spending the last season and a half with the franchise.

"They're the ones that gave me my second chance back in the NBA," Anderson said of the Raptors, who signed him to a 10-day contract in 2011/12 after he'd been out of the league since '06/07. "So yeah, I would definitely want to come back."

Whether or not Anderson will be wearing a Raptors uniform next season remains to be seen, but Anderson and agent Mark Bartelstein should be looking forward to this summer. After spending years looking for NBA teams to give him a chance, Anderson may very well receive interest from multiple suitors this July.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Monta Ellis

April 14th, 2013 at 12:54pm CST by Chuck Myron

Monta Ellis appears likely to exercise his early-termination option and get out of his $11MM contract with the Bucks for next season, and the GMs who spoke to Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times agree he's in line for a paycut. Ellis is the NBA's 11th leading scorer this year at 19.2 points per game and is headed for his third straight finish among the top five in steals per game, but those figures belie his inefficiency and inattentiveness in defense.

The former second-round pick of the Warriors has seen his field goal, three-point and free throw shooting percentages decline in each of the past two seasons. This year, his shooting line is .413/.279/.772, and part of the reason his scoring output is so high is because he's taken the fifth most field goal attempts in the league. He's jacking up 3.9 three-pointers a game this season, far too many for someone who makes less than 30% of them. Observers, including Rob Mahoney of SI.com, have pegged him as a defensive liability during his career in part for his habit of watching the ball when he should be looking at his man. Ellis' defensive win shares leaped to 3.3 this season, a drastic improvement on his previous career high of 1.9, though it's hard to accurately convey defense through statistics.

Woelfel hears Ellis would be "quite receptive" to joining the Grizzlies, though he points to their likely shortage of cap space as reason to doubt that Ellis winds up in Memphis. The Journal Times scribe mentions the Hawks, Suns, Mavs and Timberwolves as teams that figure to be in the market for two-guards in the offseason, noting the connection between Atlanta and Ellis at the trade deadline this year. The Hawks made Ellis their primary target in a proposed Josh Smith trade with the Bucks. I don't think Ellis will be that high on Atlanta GM Danny Ferry's list come the summer, since the Hawks will no doubt go after Dwight Howard and other maximum-salary level talents first.

Ferry and company may view him as a complementary piece and pursue Ellis after they sign another player for the max, a stance that other teams with cap room, like the Suns and Mavs, could take as well. The Mavs and Ellis' teammate Brandon Jennings reportedly have mutual interest, so if Jennings signs in Dallas and the Bucks fail to match, that would probably take the Mavs off the table for Ellis, unless the team is eager to duplicate a backcourt that's proven only mediocre in Milwaukee.

The Timberwolves could have plenty of cap space, too, if Andrei Kirilenko declines his $10.219MM player option and the team allows restricted free agent Nikola Pekovic to depart. If Kirilenko opts in and the team is confident Nikola Pekovic won't see an offer close to the max, the team would have room sign Ellis to fill its longstanding hole at shooting guard with a starting salary in the neighborhood of $10MM. That would be less than Ellis would make next year on his option, but a contract for three or four years could give the 27-year-old much more guaranteed cash in the long run.

Players are often attracted to the offer with the most guaranteed money, with plenty of reason given the fragility of an NBA career. Still, there's no indication that Ellis' value will significantly decline in the next 12 months, so he could probably collect his $11MM option, hit the market in 2014, and see the same offers he'd get this summer. The news that he's likely to turn down the option would seem to indicate Ellis and agent Jeffrey Fried think he can get more than $11MM for next season, though that's just my speculation. If any team makes that kind of offer, it would probably be a club with trouble attracting marquee talent but intent on making a splash with its cap space — perhaps the Suns, Bobcats or Pistons.

Ellis could improve his stock with a few memorable moments against the Heat in the first round of the playoffs. No one expects the Bucks to win, but if his contributions help the Bucks steal a game or two, it could increase his chances of a raise. Either way, I still think a long-term deal with a starting salary of around $10MM is his best bet, especially if he aspires to play for a contending team anytime soon.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Tony Allen

April 10th, 2013 at 12:33pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies haven't missed a beat following their trade of Rudy Gay, going 24-9 since adding Tayshaun Prince, Ed Davis, and Austin Daye to the active roster in Gay's place. Zach Randolph and other Grizzlies have even come around on management's stance that Memphis may be a better team without Gay, as Randolph told Sam Amick of USA Today last month.

However, while the Grizzlies have survived the loss of Gay, there's another player on the perimeter in Memphis who is even more essential to the team's success: Tony Allen. One of the league's best defenders, Allen is a key piece on a Grizzlies club that hopes to make a deep run in the 2013 playoffs. But after Memphis' season ends, either with a postseason defeat or a title, Allen will become an unrestricted free agent, giving him the opportunity to sign anywhere.

As Chris Mannix of SI.com wrote in March, Allen has been a perfect fit in Memphis, where the defense-first Grizzlies get a good chunk of their scoring from big men Randolph and Marc Gasol, meaning they don't need much offense from Allen. Like Andre Iguodala in Denver, Allen has a role in Memphis that plays to his strengths, something that wouldn't necessarily happen if he were to sign with another team. Still, at least one Eastern Conference executive told Mannix that he thinks the 6'4" guard would be a good fit just about anywhere.

"I like him a lot," the exec said. "He adds instant toughness and a defensive mentality to your team. He's a leader on the floor and he isn't going to back down from anyone. I think everyone in the league would love to have him."

Not only would every team in the NBA likely have some interest in a player like Allen, who has the ability to shut down the league's premier perimeter players, but his price tag may be affordable enough that just about every club could have a real shot. The Oklahoma State product is playing in the final year of a three-year contract that paid him just over $3.1MM annually, and one Eastern Conference general manager predicted to Mannix that Allen could sign a similar deal this time, perhaps with a slight raise — "three years at $4MM per year sounds right," said the GM.

At age 31, Allen seems to be hitting the market at an ideal time. His last three seasons in Memphis have been the best three-year stretch of his career, as he's seen his playing time steadly increase (from 18.4 career MPG prior to joining the Grizzlies to 27.1 MPG this season). His defensive prowess has also become more widely recognized, culminating with a spot on the NBA's All-Defensive First Team in 2012. Based on his production and his reputation, I could see the bidding going even higher than $4MM per year on Allen. He seems to me like the kind of player to whom a contending team would be willing to commit its full mid-level exception.

While that sort of salary would still put him within most teams' price range, it may make it tricky for the Grizzlies to bring him back. Even after clearing Gay's and Marreese Speights' projected salaries for 2013/14 from their books, the Grizz have over $60MM committed to next year's roster. The team could still re-sign Allen for a fair market price and avoid going into tax territory, but barring any further cost-cutting roster moves, it wouldn't leave much wiggle room for other upgrades.

Still, based on Allen's comments and his attitude since arriving in Memphis in 2010, I get the impression that the veteran would be reluctant to leave, particularly if the difference in money elsewhere wasn't significant. As such, I expect Allen and the Grizzlies to work something out this July, perhaps for a slightly lesser salary than the 31-year-old would receive from a rival suitor. A multiyear deal would provide some long-term security for Allen, while the Grizzlies would avoid having to try to replace Allen's production as effectively as they replaced Gay's.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Tyreke Evans

April 5th, 2013 at 10:07pm CST by Chuck Myron

Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry are the only players from the 2009 draft who've averaged more points per game during their careers than Tyreke Evans has. Yet while Griffin received a five-year maximum-salary extension and Curry got four years and $44MM, Evans wasn't one of the eight players cashing in on the more than $400MM that teams handed out in rookie-scale extensions this past offseason. Now he'll try to make his money as a restricted free agent this summer, hoping teams will look past his declining numbers and history of losing with the Kings.

An early season report suggested the Kings would trade Evans if they didn't think they could re-sign him, and despite interest from other teams, Evans remains in Sacramento. That might have more to do with apparent restrictions placed on the Sacramento's front office as a part of the team's pending sale than the thought that Evans might return to the Kings. The 23-year-old indicated in January that he wouldn't mind being traded, so it seems he's at least entertained the idea of playing for another team.

The Grizzlies inquired about the possibility of an Evans trade prior to the Rudy Gay deal, according to Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee, who added that the Lakers and Nuggets have had interest in the past. The Celtics made an ill-fated deadline-day run at trading for Evans. Unless Andre Iguodala exercises his early-termination option to get out of his contract with the Nuggets, none of those teams are set to have significant cap room this summer, so they appear to be unlikely destinations. When Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors looked at Evans' trade candidacy this season, he speculated that the Mavericks and Suns could become suitors, but the 6'6" guard would probably be far down the list of priorities for both teams, and especially for the Mavs.

Evans' scoring, rebounding and assists per game averages have declined each season since he won Rookie of the Year in 2010. Those numbers have fallen with commensurate decreases in minutes, however, and his per-36-minute averages have been fairly consistent the past three seasons. More telling is his PER, which is at 18.4 this season, exceeding his previous career high of 18.2 as a rookie. Indeed, Evans is having his best year as the advanced metrics tell it, setting new high marks in win shares per 48 minutes, true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage. The latter two statistics are helped by his improved three-point shooting. Evans is making a third of his treys this season, and though that doesn't necessarily make him a proficient long-range threat, it's a vast improvement on his nightmarish 20.2% clip from beyond the arc last season.

Still, I think teams will be wary of overpaying a player that the woeful Kings have given less playing time in each successive year. Evans' dwindling minutes, at 31.8 per game this season, may speak as much to the problems in Sacramento as anything else, but they're a red flag nonetheless. The Kings have also moved him around, using him as a point guard and a small forward, but he seems best suited as a shooting guard, and perhaps playing out of position has held him back.

In any case, I don't think it's a slam dunk that Sacramento will tender the $6,927,157 qualifying offer required for them to be able to match offers for him this summer, so Evans might hit the unrestricted market. That could be a blessing in disguise for him, since other teams wouldn't have to worry about the Kings snatching him away, but it may also be a curse, since teams would know they needn't overinflate their offers in hopes that the Kings don't match.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Arn Tellem, Evans' agent, issue a decree that his client won't sign for the mid-level exception, which will have a starting salary of $5.15MM next season, but the mid-level may be their best option. That would allow Evans to sign with a contending team that could nurture his development and help him continue to improve his outside shooting touch in ways the Kings perhaps couldn't. That might set him up to make much more on his next deal, so if Tellem negotiates a player option at the back end of a mid-level contract that would allow Evans to hit the market again while he's relatively young, that sounds ideal for both player and team.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jose Calderon

April 3rd, 2013 at 3:44pm CST by Luke Adams

It's been nearly five years since Jose Calderon last hit the open market. Back in the summer of 2008, the point guard was coming off a season in which he established career-highs in PPG (11.2), APG (8.3), FG% (.519), PER (20.5), and a handful of other categories. The performance earned Calderon a five-year, $45MM contract from the Raptors, a deal that will come to an end this June.

Calderon still hasn't topped a few of those marks he established in 2007/08, but the last five seasons have shown that his breakout year was no fluke. Since signing that lucrative deal with the Raps, Calderon has averaged 11.0 PPG, 7.9 APG, and a 17.5 PER, along with excellent shooting percentages (.474/.408/.892).

While he has been remarkably consistent to date, Calderon will be entering his age-32 season this fall. Steve Nash is living proof that it's possible for a point guard to have his best years in his 30s, but Nash is probably the exception, rather than the rule. In Calderon's case, we shouldn't expect him to get any better, though it's also safe to assume his production shouldn't fall off a cliff anytime soon. Considering his age and the new CBA, Calderon won't get another five-year contract, but a multiyear deal, perhaps for three seasons, appears likely.

After spending the first seven and a half seasons of his NBA career in Toronto, Calderon was sent to the Pistons in January's three-team Rudy Gay blockbuster. The Spaniard has expressed a willingness to listen to the Raptors if there's interest from his old team this summer, but it's his new team that appears to have the most interest in keeping him long-term. GM Joe Dumars and the Pistons have made no secret of the fact that they'd like Calderon to remain in Detroit beyond this season, helping the club's young bigs (Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond) grow and develop.

Unlike the Raptors, who figure to have only the mid-level exception at their disposal in July, the Pistons are poised to clear a huge amount of cap room this summer, with Calderon's $11.05MM salary and Corey Maggette's $10.92MM cap hit among the contracts coming off the books. Even if the team intends to pursue marquee free agents, it should have plenty of room to re-sign Calderon as well.

Of course, the Pistons and Raptors won't be the only teams in the mix for Calderon. Although he's not a strong defender, Calderon's steady offensive efficiency should attract interest from teams with a hole at the point and no way of acquiring an elite option. The Mavericks and Jazz are a couple clubs that could fit the bill, depending on how they end up using their cap space.

In addition to being unlikely to match the five years he received on his last deal, Calderon probably isn't a great bet to land the $9MM annual salary he got back in 2008. Still, he'll almost certainly receive more than mid-level money, which figures to reduce the number of potential suitors for his services. David Mayo of MLive.com recently predicted a $7-8MM annual salary for Calderon, while Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press estimated something slightly lower, at $6-7MM annually. I think both Detroit scribes are in the ballpark, and I could see Calderon inking a three-year deal worth north of $20MM.

Calderon isn't a truly elite point guard, and his defense leaves something to be desired, but there aren't many players in the NBA more capable of running an offense. Calderon's talent and ability on that side of the ball should ensure that at least two or three suitors make competitive bids for his services, but I expect the Pistons to ultimately win out.

Free Agent Stock Watch: J.J. Hickson

April 1st, 2013 at 2:11pm CST by Chuck Myron

What a difference a year can make. On March 19th, 2012, the woeful Kings waived J.J. Hickson amid a disappointing season for the former first-round pick. It was quite a comedown for a young player the Cavs once viewed as a centerpiece of their future, but Hickson was averaging just 4.7 points and 5.1 rebounds for Sacramento. The Warriors were poised to sign him when he cleared waivers, but the Blazers pounced with a claim, bringing Hickson to Portland, where he has regained every bit of his promise, and then some.

The Blazers made Hickson a focal point of their offense late last season when LaMarcus Aldridge was injured, and he responded with 15.1 points per game, which would be a career high if it were extended over a full season. He's come close to matching that production in 2012/13, notching 13.1 points and 10.7 rebounds per game as the starting center alongside Aldridge. He's one of nine players in the league to average a double figures in both points and rebounds this season, and aside from Nikola Vucevic and DeMarcus Cousins, who are on rookie-scale contracts, Hickson, on a one-year deal worth $4MM, is the lowest-paid member of that group. Omer Asik is making $8.37MM this year, and the other five double-double guys are drawing eight-figure salaries, so it seems Hickson is in line for quite a raise in the offseason.

The 24-year-old N.C. State product was frequently mentioned in trade rumors, even though he had the right to veto any swap since he was on a one-year deal and will qualify for full Bird rights with the Blazers this summer. It probably wouldn't have been to his advantage to accept a trade, since his Bird rights wouldn't have carried over to his acquiring team. Still, the Pistons, Bobcats and Nets were linked to Hickson in the month leading up to the deadline. Charlotte was also in on Hickson over the summer, around the same time the Warriors appeared to once more be frontrunners for his services.

Assuming Hickson can command an annual salary that's at least as much as Asik's, which seems reasonable, he'd be too expensive for any team without cap room to sign him outright, unless it's the Blazers. A team that's over the cap but under the tax apron could engineer a sign and trade, but teams above the apron, who can't acquire players via sign-and-trade under new CBA rules, would be out of the running. That essentially eliminates the Nets as a possible destination, since Brooklyn is committed to about $84.5MM in salary for next season. The Warriors, depending on the decisions made by the four players on their roster who have player or early-termination options, will probably wind up close to the apron, making another pursuit by Golden State tricky.

The Pistons and Bobcats will have plenty of cap space, so of the teams other than the Blazers who've been linked to Hickson in the past year, they appear to have the clearest paths to sign him. Still, I'd be surprised if there aren't plenty of other teams ready to make a bid for Hickson in the summer. The combination of his youth and the numbers he's putting up this season figure to make him a sought-after commodity, even if there are concerns he could revert to his form in Sacramento. In an ESPN.com Insider piece, Amin Elhassen points to inconsistency and poor defense as reasons why Hickson should get no more than a four-year, $30MM deal. Yet Elhassen cautions that his projections are based simply on the player's on-court value, and not what he can get on the market. Centers are routinely overpaid, and though he might be too short to be a true center at 6'9", I think an annual salary in the ballpark of $10MM seems like a reasonable bet.

The Blazers, with only $43.24MM in commitments for next season, are set up with plenty of cap room to get a deal like that done, but they may prefer to use their space to sign others and exercise their Bird rights on Hickson to re-sign him once they're over the cap. Doing so would maximize their ability to bring talent aboard this summer, though a $10MM deal for Hickson if they're already over the cap would put them close to tax territory. In any case, the Blazers also have the power to spread Hickson's guarantee out over five years instead of the four that other teams are limited to, which could give them an advantage. I'm not sure Hickson, given his youth, would want to tie himself up for an extra year for the same amount of money, but it's clear the Blazers have some flexibility regarding how they can approach his free agency. Much can happen between now and July, but the Blazers will enter the process with a built-in edge.

Free Agent Stock Watch: O.J. Mayo

March 27th, 2013 at 4:28pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Mavericks missed out on Deron Williams a year ago, the team moved on to Plan B, which involved adding a number of players on one-year contracts via free agency and trades. Of the Mavs' non-rookie additions last offseason, only O.J. Mayo received more than a one-year deal, as the 25-year-old's contract included a player option for 2013/14. However, after emerging as the second-best scorer on a Dallas team in the hunt for a playoff spot, Mayo appears poised to turn down that option in search of a new contract this summer.

Mayo's 16.4 PPG is a significant step up from his scoring averages in his final two seasons in Memphis (11.3 and 12.6 PPG), but he's also seen a major boost in minutes since arriving in Dallas, playing 35.7 per game after averaging 26.8 during his last two years with the Grizzlies. As such, Mayo's points per 36 minutes average this season is actually right in line with his career mark.

Nonetheless, the improvement in Mayo's free agent stock shouldn't be viewed as entirely artificial. He's scoring his points more efficiently than he did in his first four seasons, averaging career-highs in FG% (.462) and 3PT% (.416), while taking fewer shots per 36 minutes than he ever has before. That efficiency is reflected in his PER as well, which presently sits at a career-high 15.2. Throw in a career-best assist rate, and it's not hard to see why Mayo is in line for a raise in July.

Coming off his fourth year in Memphis in 2012, Mayo didn't receive a qualifying offer from the Grizzlies, but still landed an offer from the Mavs that would have been worth most of the mid-level exception, at $4.02MM (Dallas signed him using cap space). If we assume the former third overall pick is a lock to turn down his $4.2MM option for 2013/14, it's probably also safe to assume that he'll be seeking a starting salary worth more than the mid-level.

Of course, just because Mayo will be looking for that sort of salary doesn't mean he'll receive those offers — he was seeking more than the MLE last July, and didn't have any luck. But given his performance this season, I'd expect Mayo to earn at least one or two offers worth north of $6-7MM annually. That would rule out taxpaying teams, who can't offer more than the mini MLE and can't acquire players via sign-and-trade. Over-the-cap teams could work out a sign-and-trade for Mayo, so there may be a few that enter the mix, but it's the clubs with cap room that figure to be the primary suitors.

The Mavericks are one team poised to have cap room again, and if they're going to keep any of the players currently on one-year deals with the club, Mayo appears to be the best bet. He'll likely be a Plan B again, since the team wouldn't be able to afford to pursue this year's top-tier free agents with Mayo on its books. But there are scenarios in which the Mavs could conceivably have room to bring back Mayo and sign another second-tier free agent such as Brandon Jennings or Paul Millsap.

Multiple Detroit-based writers have suggested Mayo could be near the top of the Pistons' wish list this summer, and the team is expected to have a good chunk of cap room at its disposal. It's hard not to mention the Hawks as a potential suitor for just about everyone, since the team has less than $20MM in guaranteed commitments on its books for next season, and has given no real indication of what its plan will be. Other possible fits might include the Bobcats, Cavaliers, and Suns.

Having already played his way into what should be a nice payday this summer, Mayo could improve his free agent stock even more with a strong finish to the 2012/13 season. A year ago against the Clippers, Mayo laid an egg in the first round, scoring 8.9 PPG on 27.4% shooting, and you could certainly make an argument that the performance cost him a few bucks in free agency.

The Mavs are extremely unlikely to make a run at a title this season, but a playoff berth certainly appears within reach, given the recent struggles of the Lakers and Jazz. If Mayo could help the team sneak into the postseason and perhaps win a first-round game or two against a team like the Thunder or Spurs, it may convince a few NBA execs that he can be a go-to scoring option on a contending team. In that case, I'd expect him to easily exceed the mid-level deals signed by shooting guards like Jamal Crawford, Louis Williams, and Jason Terry in 2012.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brandon Jennings

March 22nd, 2013 at 4:49pm CST by Luke Adams

Last offseason, when eight fourth-year players agreed to extend their rookie-scale contracts, the most notable extension-eligible player not to receive a new deal was Bucks guard Brandon Jennings. Multiple reports since then have suggested that Milwaukee offered a four-year, $40MM contract, which Jennings turned down. However, according to the 23-year-old, the team never formally proposed such an offer. Whether or not Jennings declined a long-term extension last offseason, he's heading for free agency this summer, and will be one of the more interesting options on the market.

Since Jennings will be a restricted free agent, the Bucks will have the right to match any offer sheet he signs with a rival team. But Jennings indicated earlier this month that he hasn't ruled out the possibility of signing Milwaukee's one-year qualifying offer, which would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2014. It's a move you might think we'd see more often from young players unhappy with their teams or their situations, since simply extending a rookie scale contract by one more year gives a player the freedom to choose his own destination the following summer.

Still, for marquee restricted free agents, signing that one-year qualifying offer is extremely rare. Even though a player may not want to commit long-term to the team that holds his rights, there's plenty of risk in passing up a big payday in the hopes that he'll still be able to sign a similar long-term deal 12 months later. Poor performance or a serious injury could adversely affect a player's value while he plays out that one-year contract, which could end up costing him millions of dollars on his next deal — just ask Andrew Bynum how far a player's stock can drop in a single season.

In Jennings' case, the one-year qualifying offer from the Bucks will be worth about $4.53MM. So not only would accepting that QO mean postponing his free agency a year and risking a drop in his stock, but he'd be passing up the opportunity to earn an eight-digit salary immediately in 2013/14. Maybe he'd be able to make up that money later in his career, but NBA stars typically don't make a habit of giving up $5MM+ in salary in their age-24 seasons. As such, I don't expect Jennings to sign that one-year qualifying offer.

If we assume Jennings will be seeking long-term offers, it's worth exploring how big those offers might be. There's been a debate recently about whether Wizards guard John Wall deserves a maximum-salary contract, or whether he's worth such a deal, and the same argument could be had about Jennings. The Bucks guard is averaging 18.3 PPG and 6.8 APG this season, with a .403 FG% and a 16.7 PER, numbers that are good but not elite. Jennings doesn't stack up particularly favorably to players like Ty Lawson and Stephen Curry, who signed four-year extensions for between $40-50MM last October. So if we're debating whether Jennings "deserves" the max, which figures to be $60MM+ for four years or $80MM+ for five years, the answer is probably no.

Still, as The Wire's Snoop once said, "deserve got nothin' to do with it." In free agency, a player's stats and his potential play a part in his price, but there are a number of other factors involved as well. For the Bucks or another team, overpaying Jennings may be worthwhile if the club has a glaring need and believes there aren't many appealing alternatives out there.

When Eric Gordon signed a max-salary offer sheet with the Suns last summer, an offer that was eventually matched by the Hornets, I would have argued that he wasn't necessarily "worth" the max. But there were at least two teams with the space and the willingness to pay that price. When Jennings hits free agency, there will be plenty of teams with the space, and it only takes one desperate club to make a big offer, which would leave the Bucks with a big decision. That's not to say I believe Jennings will definitely earn a maximum offer this July, but I'll be surprised if he doesn't sign a contract worth more than either Curry's or Lawson's deal, simply because he'll have multiple potential bidders in the mix, giving him leverage.

Who might those bidders be? I'd certainly expect the Bucks to be a primary player, though the club may simply wait for Jennings to sign an offer sheet elsewhere, then decide whether to match it, rather than negotiating directly with him. There's been reported mutual interest between Jennings and the Mavs, a team that will have the cap space to make him a big offer. The Jazz are also seeking a long-term solution at point guard, though I would guess they'd probably prefer a player who would be a facilitator first and a scorer second. The Hawks and Pistons are among the other teams expected to have a huge amount of cap space and a hole or two in the backcourt.

Given the extensions signed by other fourth-year players last October, four years and $40MM sounds like a reasonable price for Jennings, but now that he's headed for the open market, I expect that price to rise. By the time the dust clears in July, I could see Jennings landing a four-year deal worth north of $50MM, and I think the Bucks are the best bet to end up with him. Maybe Jennings surprises us by accepting a one-year qualifying offer with an eye toward escaping Milwaukee in 2014, or maybe the Bucks surprise us by letting Jennings walk to a rival suitor. But a long-term contract between the two sides makes the most sense to me, since it would give Jennings financial security and would allow the Bucks to hang on to one of their most valuable assets.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Paul Millsap

March 18th, 2013 at 4:00pm CST by Chuck Myron

I examined Al Jefferson's free agent stock this weekend, and since his future seems tied to Paul Millsap, it makes sense to follow with a look at the other Jazz big man who could be on the move. The Jazz will likely re-sign one, but not the other, according to Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio, and the majority of Hoops Rumors readers who answered last night's poll believe Utah should keep Jefferson over Millsap. Utah has dropped few, if any, hints about which they're more likely to keep, but it seems safe to assume there's at least a 50-50 chance Millsap is playing elsewhere next season.

Millsap could just as easily have been playing on another team already if it weren't for the desire of the Miller family, owners of the Jazz, to stay competitive this season rather than break up the team's core via trade. The Jazz and Pacers reportedly discussed a deal that would send Millsap and Alec Burks to Indiana in exchange for Danny Granger and Lance Stephenson, though I'm not sure how seriously the Pacers would have pursued that swap, since Millsap and David West play the same position. It might have been a hedge against losing West in free agency, since the Pacers will only have Early Bird rights on West this summer, instead of the full Bird rights they would have had on Millsap if they traded for him. If West bolts in the offseason, Indiana could still turn to Millsap, and perhaps the Pacers would view Millsap as an upgrade.

West has said he wants to return to the Pacers, but if he has a change of heart, he and Millsap will likely compete for top billing among free agent power forwards. Much as there are similarities between Millsap and Jefferson, West and Millsap are also hard to differentiate. Millsap grabs a half-rebound more per game than West, and though Millsap is only averaging 15.0 points per contest to West's 17.3, that's offset by West's more frequent shot attempts. Their PERs are separated by two-tenths of a point. Where Millsap has the edge is in age, since, at 28, he's four and a half years younger than the 32-year-old West.

That means fewer teams could have reserverations about signing Millsap to a four-year deal, the most years he could get if he leaves Utah. The key is finding a team with enough cap room to accomodate what will likely be an eight-figure annual salary. The Clippers had interest in Millsap at the deadline, but their cap space appears targeted for Chris Paul, and I don't think they want to pair Millsap with Blake Griffin, another power forward, long-term. That's also why the Wolves, who also engaged in Millsap trade talks with the Jazz earlier this season, don't make sense as long as Kevin Love is around.

The Blazers were reportedly eyeing Millsap at the deadline, too, and they seem a somewhat more plausible destination. Portland, under previous management, signed Millsap to an offer sheet back in 2009. LaMarcus Aldridge occupies the power forward position for the Blazers, but at 6'11", he could shift to center if the team lets free agent J.J. Hickson go. Portland will have only about $43.2MM in commitments this summer, which should leave plenty of room to go after Millsap.

The Nets seemed eager to deal for Millsap at different points this year, but they're poised to be well into the tax this offseason, with no room to add any marquee free agents. The Jazz would like to work a sign-and-trade involving either Millsap or Jefferson, but the Nets won't be able to engage in a sign-and-trade for Millsap or anyone else, since the new CBA bars taxpayers from acquiring players via sign-and-trade beginning this summer.

The Rockets, Spurs, Hawks and Bucks are likely to be the only teams among those headed to the playoffs this year with the cap room to add a maximum salary player in the offseason. Unlike Jefferson, I don't believe there's any way Millsap will be able to command a max contract, but I think he could wind up with a starting salary of anywhere from $12MM to $15MM, depending on his priorities. He could probably sign for the higher amount with a non-contender, while a playoff team might convince him to bring his price down to the low end of that range. If the Jazz don't bring him back, I expect Millsap, who's used to winning in Utah, to sign with a team that can continue to give him a chance to compete.

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