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Free Agent Stock Watch: Al Jefferson

March 17th, 2013 at 12:58pm CST by Chuck Myron

Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum seem to be eliciting the most chatter among soon-to-be free agent centers as the offseason draws near, but Al Jefferson could prove just as valuable, if not more so than the oft-injured Bynum. The burly, 6'10" center has never made it past the first round of the playoffs, but he's proven a productive inside force in each of the last seven seasons, a rare commodity in the NBA. The Jazz appear poised to give up either Jefferson or fellow unrestricted free agent Paul Millsap this summer, so it seems there's a decent chance he'll be changing teams.

As I noted yesterday, it's tough to differentiate between Jefferson and Millsap, who are similar in age and on-court efficiency. Jefferson's size might give him an edge to return to Utah, particularly if the Jazz are more comfortable with Derrick Favors at power forward instead of center. Favors appears more ready for starter's minutes than Enes Kanter, a more traditional center, though the club could be anxious to get more minutes for both of their young big men. Utah has dropped few hints about whether Jefferson or Millsap is more likely to return, so it might be easier to assess the market based on the needs of other teams.

NBA executives appear to remain enchanted with centers even in the wake of the small-ball Heat's championship last season, as witnessed by inflated deals for JaVale McGee, Omer Asik, Ian Mahinmi and others. Those three players, who were backups for their teams in 2011/12, signed for a combined $85.124MM. That's one reason Jefferson, despite never having made an All-Star Game, has a chance of inking a maximum-salary contract in the summer. Teams that miss out on Howard and are wary of Bynum's knee trouble could be tempted to spend on a productive 28-year-old big man who has missed more than six games just once in the past six seasons.

Such an offer would likely result in a salary of between $17MM and $18MM next season, or 30% of whatever the salary cap will be for next year. If he re-signed with the Jazz, he could get a total package of five years and close to $100MM. A maximum deal from another team would be four years and about $75MM. Unlike under the old CBA, Jefferson will be limited to the smaller max if he goes to another team even if Utah facilitates a sign-and-trade, as it appears they'd like to do rather than let Jefferson or Millsap walk for nothing in return. 

One report suggested the Spurs were the frontrunners to land Jefferson at the deadline, citing the close ties between their front office and Utah's, but San Antonio's payroll concerns likely prevented any deal from getting too far. The Spurs might be more open to bringing Jefferson aboard in the offseason, since they have slightly less than $33MM in commitments for next year. The Suns appeared to have interest in Jefferson at the trade deadline, too, and they'll have plenty of cap room to sign him outright or engage in a sign-and-trade, since there are multiple reports that no one on Phoenix's roster is untouchable. Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News wrote earlier this season that he believed the Mavs could make a run at Jefferson, and if the team can't land a marquee talent like Howard or Chris Paul, Dallas might turn to Jefferson rather than wait another year to upgrade around an aging Dirk Nowitzki. The Hawks were reportedly seeking a "quality young center" in return for Josh Smith at the trade deadline, and while Jefferson, middle-aged by NBA standards, might not be young, he otherwise fits the bill. 

Jefferson was upset after a report from Boston suggested he was open to returning to the Celtics, a prospect that seems far-fetched barring a major overhaul for the C's. In response to that report, Jefferson expressed his desire to remain in Utah, saying, "The only way I won't be there is they don't want me there." It's unclear whether the Jazz want him to stick around as much as he does, and if they do, I don't think a max deal is the most likely outcome. Still, wherever he ends up, I think Jefferson will have a contract worth more than enough to keep him satisfied for years to come.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Chris Kaman

March 14th, 2013 at 11:33pm CST by Chuck Myron

Chris Kaman entered last summer as a 30-year-old coming off a down season, but as a 7-footer just two years removed from an All-Star berth, an $8MM annual salary seemed reasonable. That's what he got from the Mavericks, but surprisingly, his deal is only for one season. Kaman wasn't without other suitors, as the Pacers showed interest, and the Spurs, Jazz and Kings were reportedly in the running as well. Kaman's one-year deal seems even more curious given that earlier this season he told Chris Tomasson of Fox Sports Florida, "Nobody wants to do a one-year deal."

This season has been a prime example of why Kaman and others might be motivated to lock themselves up long-term. The former sixth overall pick, approaching his 31st birthday next month, has missed 14 games so far this season, mostly due to a concussion he suffered in late January. It's the third straight season he's been out at least that many games, and even when he's able to play, he doesn't see much time on the floor. He's seeing a career-low in minutes per game, and his production has taken a commensurate hit. His 11.4 points per game average is his worst since 2006/07, and his 5.9 rebounds per game are the fewest he's collected since he pulled down 5.6 as a rookie.

Still, when Kaman has played, he's performed about as well as he ever has. Only once in his career, during his All-Star season, has he scored more than the 18.5 points per 36 minutes that he's delivering this year. He's posting a 16.4 PER, a better-than-average mark that exceeds his 14.6 career PER. That might explain why Kaman was so upset when coach Rick Carlisle kept him on the bench after only two minutes of playing time Tuesday against the Bucks, as Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News details. Kaman said he wouldn't let the incident dissuade him from considering another go with the Mavs in free agency this summer, and just last week he praised the organization's professionalism, remarking that he hoped the Mavericks would have him back next season.

Given his lack of minutes and the Mavs' likely pursuit of Dwight Howard this summer, Kaman appears a fallback option at best for Dallas, a team that would probably be just as hesitant to give him a long-term deal as it was last year. Joe Kaiser of ESPN.com (Insider link) came up with a list of teams that could be better fits for Kaman, pointing to the Celtics, Bucks, Sixers, Bobcats and Blazers. Of those teams, I think the Blazers probably make the most sense, as they're set to have plenty of cap room and would give Kaman, who's only been to the playoffs once in his 10 NBA seasons, a chance to join an up-and-coming club. Still, he'd likely only be a Plan B in case Portland can't re-sign J.J. Hickson. Few teams will have Kaman too high on their wish lists during an offseason in which Howard, Andrew Bynum, Al Jefferson, Nikola Pekovic, Tiago Splitter and others are also set to hit free agency, so "Plan B" might become the theme of the summer for Kaman.

That's why I think Kaman may have to settle for the mid-level exception that Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors believed he wouldn't have to take when he looked at Kaman's free agent stock last year. The full non-taxpayer's mid-level would give him four years with a starting salary of $5.15MM, and the total package would be worth up to nearly $22MM. That would open up the bidding to more than just teams with cap space or clubs willing to pursue a sign-and-trade, a maneuver that will be tougher to pull off now that taxpaying teams can't acquire signed-and-traded players. Kaman could go to a contender, or at least a playoff team, and still have the long-term stability he seems to want.

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Free Agent Stock Watch Series

March 13th, 2013 at 4:35pm CST by Luke Adams

With only about five weeks remaining in the NBA regular season, most teams have between 15 and 20 games remaining. For players on expiring contracts, particularly guys on non-playoff teams, that doesn't leave much more time to prove their worth before he hits free agency. So it's safe to start taking a look at some of those free-agents-to-be and assessing their value as July nears.

Over the next several months, Hoops Rumors will examine specific members of this year's free agent class, breaking down each player's stock as he prepares to sign a new contract. Our Free Agent Stock Watch pieces will explore how this year's performance could affect a player's future earnings, what sort of deal he'll be seeking, what teams might be interested, and any other relevant factors.

Listed below are the players whose free agent stock we've looked at so far. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with potential restricted free agents marked accordingly. You can find this list, which we'll continue to update, anytime on the right sidebar under "Hoops Rumors Features."

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Free Agent Stock Watch: DeJuan Blair

March 13th, 2013 at 1:20pm CST by Luke Adams

Prior to the trade deadline, there weren't many players who appeared more likely to be dealt than DeJuan Blair. Blair's role with the Spurs this season had diminished, his contract was set to expire at season's end, and his modest $1.05MM salary made it palatable for the team to move him for a draft pick without taking any salary back.

The Spurs didn't end up trading Blair though, and the club turned down the 23-year-old's buyout request a week later, concerned he would join a rival playoff team. Still, while Blair remains a Spur for now, it's unlikely that the two sides will continue their relationship beyond this season.

Blair had been a regular part of the Spurs' rotation for the past few seasons, starting 127 of the team's 148 games in 2010/11 and '11/12. However, with Tiago Splitter emerging this year and Boris Diaw in the fold for a full season, Blair's minutes per game have been reduced from 21.3 to 13.4, and he's been displaced from the starting lineup. Blair's production has slipped a little as well — after recording a PER of 17+ in each of his first three seasons, the 6'7" forward is down to 14.9 in '12/13.

Speaking to Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich acknowledged that his handling of Blair, who has also played limited minutes during the team's playoff series, has probably been frustrating for a player facing unrestricted free agency.

"Think about it," Popovich said. "Not just this season, but the whole time he’s been here, this is a guy who’s started during regular seasons, and then I’ve sat him during playoffs. I might be wrong, I might be right, but I was looking for certain things and made certain decisions, and that’s tough on a player…. This is his contract year, and I’m sure he’s getting some advice from other places that is a little bit different from the advice we’re giving him, let’s say."

Noting that Blair has averaged 15.8 PPG and 11.8 RPG in the 24 career contests when he's played 30+ minutes, Monroe suggests that players posting those numbers "typically have six-figure salaries." Since Blair is already making seven figures, I assume Monroe actually means "eight-figure salaries."

A $10MM+ annual salary figures to be an unrealistic goal for Blair when he hits the open market this July, but he should be in line for a decent raise, despite not truly being able to showcase his value in San Antonio this year. I could see plenty of contenders having interest in adding Blair, whether it's a team like the Heat (with the taxpayer MLE) or perhaps the Warriors, as a potential Carl Landry replacement.

A lottery club with cap space, like the Bobcats, could also enter the mix. Charlotte missed out on power forward targets like Kris Humphries, Antawn Jamison, and Landry last summer, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the 'Cats outbidding rival suitors and offering a longer-term deal to a younger option who is seeking an opportunity to play more.

Within Monroe's piece, Popovich praises Blair's work ethic, noting that the big man's attitude has stayed positive whether he has been playing or sitting. However, Blair's desire for a buyout last month suggests to me that at this point in his career, playing time is his top priority. As such, when he starts talking to teams in July, I expect Blair to lean toward clubs that will give him a chance at an expanded role, even if those situations won't necessarily provide his best shot at a championship.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Kyle Korver

March 7th, 2013 at 4:52pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Hawks acquired Kyle Korver from the Bulls last July, the trade essentially amounted to a cash dump for Chicago. All the Bulls received in exchange for Korver was cash and a trade exception that remains unused. From Korver's perspective though, the deal presented him with the chance to play more minutes than he has in years, and he's taken full advantage of that opportunity.

For the first time since 2005/06, Korver is a fixture in his team's starting lineup, rather than coming off the bench. In 54 games (45 starts) for the Hawks this year, the veteran sharpshooter is also averaging the second-most minutes of his career (31.5). While the increased playing time is part of the reason Korver has seen his numbers increase (his 11.4 PPG is his best average since 2006/07), he has also been exceptionally productive by his standards. His .458 FG% and league-leading .461 3PT% are well above his career rates, and his 14.5 PER is a career-high.

The resurgence is coming at the right time for Korver, who will hit unrestricted free agency this summer. The 31-year-old is in the final year of a three-year, $15MM contract, and given how well he has played this season, it's not hard to envision him receiving offers of at least that many years and dollars again. Korver may not land as large a deal as fellow marksman J.J. Redick, who is three years younger, but three-point shooters as deadly as Korver always draw interest, particularly from contending teams.

If mid-level money (slightly more than $5MM annually) is enough to land Korver, his list of suitors figures to be extensive. The Nuggets are one team expected to target Korver with their MLE, and I could easily see the Grizzlies and other capped-out contenders getting in the mix as well. A mid-level offer may not be the best Korver can do from a financial perspective, but if he prioritizes a chance at a title run, we could see him accept a two- or three-year offer for MLE money.

Plenty of teams, contenders and non-contenders alike, are expected to have a good chunk of cap space this summer as well, and with only a handful of big-name free agents on the market, Korver should draw interest as a complementary piece for many of those clubs. For the Jazz, Mavericks, Pistons, and others, Korver may not be the Plan A, but if they miss out on one of their top targets, Korver certainly wouldn't be a bad alternative. Depending on how much cap room those teams have to spare, Korver could even earn an offer that pays him a little more than mid-level money, though I imagine the difference wouldn't be too significant.

The Hawks also remain a viable option for Korver. Not only has the team allowed Korver to shine in an expanded role, but Atlanta only has three players on guaranteed contracts for next season. GM Danny Ferry could go in a number of directions when it comes to using the Hawks' huge amount of cap space, and re-signing Korver may not be the first move he pursues when July arrives, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the two sides work out a deal to keep the veteran in Atlanta.

Korver has exhibited a knack for delivering his best seasons when they matter most. Prior to becoming a free agent in 2010, he shot an incredible 53.6% from three-point range for the Jazz, earning himself a big payday that summer despite playing in just 18.3 minutes per game for Utah in '09/10. His contract-year performance this time around is a little more impressive, and will likely land him another nice multiyear contract this July from a team in need of long-range shooting.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Nikola Pekovic

March 6th, 2013 at 9:29pm CST by Chuck Myron

This morning, we heard from Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that there's no chance the Wolves let center Nikola Pekovic sign with another team as a restricted free agent this summer. Of course, since the 27-year-old Pekovic can sign an offer sheet with any team, and since centers of his caliber and relatively young age have long been a commodity in the NBA, it's far from a certainty that he'll be back in Minnesota next season.

There appears to be a division within the Wolves front office about Pekovic's value, as Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities has reported on multiple occasions. Wolfson would be "shocked" if the Wolves agreed to pay him $12MM a year. Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors pointed to the contracts of JaVale McGee and DeAndre Jordan, both of whom are making close to $11MM annually, as evidence that Pekovic could draw offers for as much if not more this summer.

Pekovic is a few years older than both McGee and Jordan were when they signed their contracts, so he probably won't be viewed as having as much upside. He makes up for it with significantly greater production, particularly on the offensive end, where he's averaging 15.9 points per game on 50.9% shooting. Pekovic, like McGee, carries a high PER. Minnesota's center is posting a 19.5 PER this season, and is at 18.2 for his three-year career. Much of that efficiency comes from his work on the offensive boards. This season, he's 10th in offensive rebounding percentage after leading the NBA in 2011/12. One of his primary shortcomings appears to be basket protection, as Pekovic has never averaged a block a game despite standing 6'11". He's out with a strained abdominal muscle right now, but he's avoided major injury, and this is likely to be the first season he'll have missed as many as games for the Wolves.

It figures to be crowded at the top of the free agent center market this summer, as Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and Al Jefferson could all change teams. Pekovic, Tiago Splitter and J.J. Hickson provide clubs with a few Plan B's. Perhaps the Suns will attempt to trade Marcin Gortat. Still, it seems there are always fewer quality centers than there are teams looking for one, so I don't think Pekovic will have trouble finding an offer in the $12MM-a-year range. He probably won't get the maximum salary, which would probably be around $15MM a year, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's more likely to re-sign with Minnesota. The advantages a player's incumbent team has aren't nearly as pronounced when the free agent isn't a max guy. The Wolves are able to offer him five years instead of four, but they won't be able to offer him more money unless they overpay him.

Pekovic has spoken highly of the Wolves, citing his teammates and the coaching staff  last month when he said, "I like everything about Minnesota."  Kevin Love is optimistic his frontcourt mate will return, and the team will have plenty of cap flexibility to accomodate him. The Wolves only have $37.67MM committed for 2013/14, though Andrei Kirilenko could add about $10.2MM to that figure if he opts in for next season. Either way, Minnesota will have enough space for Pekovic even if he signs a maximum-salary offer sheet, which seems doubtful.

Much will hinge on whether the Wolves are confident that a core of Love, Pekovic and Ricky Rubio is capable of taking them where they want to go. They might be able to do better, but re-signing Pekovic probably gives them the quickest route to becoming a contender, or at least a top-four team in the West, by the time Love can opt out of his deal and become a free agent in the summer of 2015. Given Love's comments expressing doubt about his future with the team — remarks he tried to backtrack from — there's probably a sense of urgency within Minnesota's braintrust to start winning now. My guess is that'll be enough to convince the Wolves to go into the $12MM-a-year range it will likely take to keep Pekovic this summer, even as the team might try to depress his value by indicating they won't.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Andrew Bynum

March 5th, 2013 at 10:35pm CST by Alex Lee

Who better to kick off our 2013 Free Agent Stock Watch series with than the enigmatic Andrew Bynum?  By all accounts, Bynum is one of the most intriguing free agent cases in recent memory.  Because of his chronic knees, Bynum hasn't played since last May and we recently learned may not play at all this season.  But he is only 25 and as a natural center, a rare commodity in today's NBA.  Combine that with the fact that he already played a large role in two Lakers championship runs and it isn't totally far fetched to think that some team, desperate for a star, may give him a max deal.

But will that team be the 76ers?  Nearly 70% of our readers say the Sixers should not re-sign Bynum at all, much less to a max deal.  The Sixers have maintained that Bynum is still their "Plan A" and David Aldridge reported that they are "intoxicated" by his potential.  But Bynum hasn't touched the court as a Sixer and to make matters worse, Nikola Vucevic and Maurice Harkless are blossoming in Orlando.  This is a tricky situation for the Sixers – one that involves health, PR and cost commitment variables atypical of regular star free-agent-to-be scenarios.

The Bynum case is nearly impossible to predict.  As our Luke Adams outlined yesterday, should the Sixers give Bynum a max deal, it will be for five years and just south of $102MM.  That is a lot of money for a guy who, come opening night in 2013, will likely not have played in 18 months.  They could, of course, come to terms on a more reasonable contract should the rest of the NBA be scared off by the risk of a near-max deal.  But should they even bother?

Some in Philly see Bynum as a sunk cost.  Beyond his absence on the court, Bynum's casual attitude has turned the fanbase against him.  A healthy return next season, by itself, would not be enough to bring the fans around — something that may matter to a franchise struggling to sell tickets.  On the other hand, the Sixers took this risk in the first place because they had to.  Without any stars, they were stuck in NBA purgatory – too good to land a top five draft pick, not good enough to be legitimate contenders and not an attractive enough NBA location to lure the elite players it takes to win championships via free agency.  They will, at the very least, consider re-signing Bynum for the same reason.  For first-year general manager Tony DiLeo, it's an impossible decision and one that, depending on the results, will undoubtedly dictate the success or failure of the franchise in the short and long term.

Should the Sixers decide to pass on Bynum, they could try to work out a sign-and-trade or just part ways with the seven-footer.  As Luke notes, a max deal for Bynum, should he hit the open market, would be for four years and just less than $76MM.  At a glance, any team willing to spend on Bynum at any amount would have to display a handful of qualifications: a desperation for superstar talent, a comfort level with (significant) risk, an ability to contend and, of course, a boatload of cap space.  In the West, as Luke also touched on today, Dallas and Houston both fit the bill.  In the East, Atlanta makes a lot of sense as does Cleveland to a lesser degree, should the Cavs want to pair Kyrie Irving with another dominant player. 

It's no surprise that many of these teams are also said to be popular destinations for Dwight Howard, should he leave Los Angeles.  Injury-prone centers with questions about their attitudes, Howard and Bynum are somewhat similar, as Eddie Sefko pointed out today.  There figures to be no shortage of suitors for Howard.  Bynum could certainly benefit from that, as teams that strike out on Howard, their pockets still filled with cash, could become desperately risk-inclined and eager for a consolation prize. 

When healthy, Bynum is the second best center in the NBA.  His skills and upside are not the problem.  He scores, he rebounds, he guards the rim and at times, appears dominant enough to be the best center in the NBA.  But outside of two seasons — 2006-07 and 2011-12 — Bynum has never really shown he can be consistently healthy for an entire season.  Couple that with a perceived attitude problem, and you get the most unpredictable free agent stock in recent memory.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Josh Harrellson

September 3rd, 2012 at 7:38pm CST by Ryan Raroque

Earlier this afternoon, we relayed a report that the Heat were inviting Josh Harrellson to a pre-camp tryout for a spot on the team's official training camp roster.  Although his season averages of 4.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 42.3% shooting from the field in 14.7 MPG may not stand out very much, the former Kentucky Wildcat has shown flashes of how he could be a contributor for teams needing depth in the frontcourt. In his 37 games as a Knick, Harrellson appeared to be a blue-collar role player that didn't need to score to have an impact on the game. Having watched nearly every Knicks game last season, here are some of my observations of what he can do:

While he may not be a standout post-player, I wouldn't consider Harrellson to be an offensive liability either.  He found most of his attempts in the painted area (58 FGA out of his total 148 FGA), finishing at the basket with a 53% clip; not to mention finding success with the corner-three point shot, where he averaged 39.1% on 23 attempts last season. Albeit that may not be a great sample size to consider, it still offers some intrigue as to whether he can maintain that type of production with consistent playing time. Without question, his performance from everywhere except the corners (11-for-36) had a significant impact on his overall shooting percentages. However, proper coaching might help direct Harrellson's shot selection more toward his areas of efficiency from last year.  

At nearly 6'10 and 275 lbs, Harrellson has enough strength to absorb contact and maintain his position defensively near the basket. By no means is he much of a shot blocking threat, but more often times than not he appeared disciplined enough to remain grounded and not fall for pump fakes in the post, instead raising his hands high and actively denying a good look at the basket. His rebounding abilities also looked solid, and as we pointed out last week, Harrellson is still among the top rebounders available in free agency with an average of 9.6 rebounds per 36 minutes. 

Although he may not be the most ideal prospect with regards to big men, the former Knick has enough attributes to viably compete for a spot in an NBA rotation, much less be kept on board as a reserve to round out a roster. As a player who does not need the ball to be effective, Harrellson could fit well in a lineup with multiple scorers and his potential as a corner three-point shooter can be used to help space the floor. On the flip side, there's certainly a chance that he may not be able to find playing time, struggles in his second year, or even remains unsigned. At the very least, such an addition could be very affordable and low-risk for any team looking to add size at this point. 

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Jeff Green

June 19th, 2012 at 4:46pm CST by Luke Adams

An NBA agent is expected to create a market for his players, so it's not uncommon to see an agent speak overly optimistically, if not hyperbolically, about one of his clients. Long-time NBA player rep David Falk displayed that sort of optimism this week, when he discussed client Jeff Green, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer after recovering from heart surgery.

"With the possible exception of Deron Williams, I think that Jeff will probably be the No. 1 unrestricted free agent on the market," Falk told SI.com's Sam Amick. "It's not like we have LeBron [James] and [Dwyane] Wade and all these guys floating around. I'd be very surprised if Deron Williams winds up anywhere besides Dallas or [Brooklyn]. So the next guy in the pecking order is Jeff Green."

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Young

June 8th, 2012 at 5:58pm CST by Chuck Myron

Nick Young made an unusual decision in December, and this summer he’ll see if it pays off. Before the season, Young became just the 12th player ever to sign a qualifying offer, the minimum offer a team can make to retain the right of first refusal on a player coming off his rookie contract. Usually, the offer is just a starting point for negotiations, if that, but in Young’s case, the one-year, $3,695,857 deal on the table from the Wizards came in handy when the condensed post-lockout market limited his options.

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