For every Goran Dragic or Ersan Ilyasova, players who explode just months before they hit unrestricted free agency, there's a Raymond Felton. Entering a contract year and his first season in Portland, Felton was poised to take over for Andre Miller as the Trail Blazers' point guard, but struggled mightily for a good chunk of the season, falling out of favor with the Portland faithful. It certainly wasn't the strongest contract year we've ever seen.
In his nine year career, Matt Barnes has suited up for eight different teams. Take from that what you will, as another season ends in disappointment for the Lakers, and Barnes becomes a free agent yet again. At the age of 32, stripped of his athleticism and ability to act as a versatile two-way presence, Barnes’ offensive duties in recent years have been limited to that of a spot up shooter. He stretches the floor by standing in the corner and receiving passes from his team’s more capable on-ball play makers, but relative to the league’s better fits in this specific role, Barnes didn’t do a great job.
Barnes started the season slow—shooting 25.5 percent from behind the arc before the All-Star break—but turned it up later on, knocking down 37.2 percent of his three-pointers in the month of April. Battling an ankle injury in the playoffs, Barnes was more stationary than normal, and wasn’t able to take advantage of his idle play by knocking down open shots from beyond the arc (Barnes shot 16.1 percent from down town in 11 playoff games, and was benched for Game 5 of the second round).
In his exit interview last week, Barnes said where he chose to sign in recent years was mostly based on his pursuit of a championship. That decision making process could change this off season, as the Lakers don't appear to be a championship contending team given their current makeup. Also, if Barnes is in search of a high bidder, his current team likely won't be it.
“The last few teams I’ve went to, it was in search of a ring, and have fallen short. I’ve always turned down a significant amount of money to do that. So that’s something we’ll have to sit down and see."
With averages of 7.8 PPG and 5.5 RPG this season, there will probably be a suitor or two out there who believes Barnes can add depth and a little bit of toughness to its bench, but as has been the primary theme throughout his career, anything more than a one-year deal is unlikely. He can still play, but the role needs to be a limited one.
In July 2010, the Lakers decided to use their mid-level exception on Barnes with a two-year, $3.6MM contract. In a way, his poor play down the stretched symbolized the team’s need to become more athletic, and if the they take him back for anything more than the league minimum it would be a serious surprise.
A little more than two months ago, Jordan Hill seemed like he might be on his way out of the league. He was buried on the Lakers bench after a midseason trade from the Rockets, passed over for backup minutes at power forward and center in favor of Troy Murphy and Josh McRoberts.
Yet as the Thunder built an 18-point lead against the Lakers in a game during the last week of the regular season, Lakers coach Mike Brown summoned Hill off the bench, and the former eighth overall pick responded with 15 rebounds, six of them on the offensive end, to go along with 14 points in 35 minutes as L.A. came back to win in double overtime. From then on, Hill was the primary backup for both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, averaging 4.8 points and 6.3 rebounds in 18.1 minutes per game in the playoffs. His offensive rebounding percentage of 18.9 is the best in the postseason so far. Suddenly, Hill is back on the radar for teams looking to improve their frontcourt depth and second-chance points.
The Lakers seem to be interested in bringing him back, but they'll have some limitations on how much they can give him, thanks to his former team. The Rockets, when they held his rights, declined the $3,632,527 team option on his contract for next season, making him an unrestricted free agent this summer. According to Larry Coon's CBA FAQ, a team can't decline an option for a player on his rookie contract, like Hill, and attempt to re-sign him for the next season at a salary greater than the value of his option. That holds true for a team that inherits such a player's rights via trade, as the Lakers have done with Hill. According to Eric Pincus of HoopsWorld, the most Hill could get from the Lakers this summer is $20.9MM over five years, with a first-year salary matching that $3.6MM option. Another team could sign him for as much as $21.4MM over four years, but I don't think anyone is willing to pay quite that much for him.
If Hill leaves the Lakers, he could be an option for the Celtics, who had the worst offensive rebounding percentage of any team in the league this season and were riddled with injuries to frontcourt players. The Warriors, 29th in offensive rebounding, figure to improve with a healthy Andrew Bogut, so they might not pursue Hill. The Mavs, 28th in that category, could go after him as a complementary piece once they figure out what to do with the rest of their many offseason priorities. It's possible that a relatively proficient offensive rebounding team, like the Pistons, could see a bargain in a 25-year-old Hill and give him another shot as a starter. The most likely scenario involves Hill signing for a salary near that $3.6MM option amount. Whether that happens with the Lakers or not hinges largely on what the team does with Gasol and Bynum. If they're both back, I'd expect Hill to be back, too, since he allows the Lakers to go to their bench without much dropoff on the offensive glass, one of the team's hallmarks.
Almost 10 years ago, then-Orlando Magic superstar Tracy McGrady heard the story of Iran Brown, a 13-year-old who had been the victim of a sniper attack in Maryland. Upon learning that he was Brown's favorite NBA player, Tracy reached out to the fan with gifts and the Magic eventually paid to bring the boy and his family to Orlando to watch the team play on Christmas Day. I can recall a segment on ESPN documenting a meeting between the two during a shootaround, in which McGrady told Brown that he would try to score 50 points for him. That day, after missing three games and still recuperating from a strained back, he would go on to score 46 in a win.
When you think of "T-Mac" in his prime, he was as gifted and talented as anyone in the league and appeared to be able to do whatever he wanted on the court. A seven-time All-Star, two scoring titles, and two All-NBA team selections are all a part of a testament to his capabilities at his peak. Today, the 33-year-old is only a shell of what he used to be and has struggled to carve out a comfortable role since his days with the Rockets, having played for three teams in less than two years after being dealt from Houston.
After a tumultuous 2010-11 season with the Pistons, McGrady willingly chose to sign with the Atlanta Hawks for the veteran's minimum, but would later become frustrated with coach Larry Drew in February over a lack of playing time. While the two were eventually able to settle their differences, it would seem likely that the 14-year-veteran will try to seek another team that can give him a consistent role in their rotation if the opportunity presented itself.
This season, Tracy averaged 5.3 PPG, 2.9 APG, and shot 43.7% from the field in 16.1 MPG. In this year's playoffs, he averaged 4.2 PPG and 15.2 MPG. Those minute-per-game averages don't look too far-fetched, although McGrady had been unhappy with sporadic fluctuations in his playing time during the season. A microcosm of his inconsistent minutes are glaringly apparent in March, where he would play just two minutes against the Thunder after playing 26 the night before against the Bucks; 16 minutes against the Pistons and none against the Kings two days later; 9 minutes against the Wizards after playing 25 minutes against the Clippers two nights before. Coach Drew was able to quell some of McGrady's qualms about playing time by the start of the playoffs, and in an interview before their first-round opener against the Celtics, McGrady appeared to be happy:
"I’m excited about being a valuable part of this ball club. Yeah, I’m not that guy averaged 28, 29 points in the playoffs. But I’m still a valuable piece that comes off this bench. Considering it’s my first year ever coming off the bench, it’s a very uncomfortable role that I just wasn’t familiar with and didn’t really know how to approach it mentally. When you are playing inconsistent minutes . . . I’m not just built that way. That’s why I think over the last couple weeks I’ve been more comfortable is because my minutes have been consistent. That’s what it was all about. All I wanted was to have consistent minutes is to get me comfortable on the basketball games."
Although the days of playing above the rim and 50-point outbursts are long gone, I feel that McGrady can still be a decent contributor as a reserve player. His height at 6'8'' and ability to bring the ball up as a point guard in some instances can present matchup problems for other teams' second units. Also, being that he earned his reputation in the league as a scorer, I don't view him as a player who would shy away from being aggressive offensively in spot minutes. If he decides to leave Atlanta, McGrady could be a very interesting low-risk option for contending teams looking to add depth for the veteran's minimum.
C.J. Miles is a seven-year veteran who also happens to be just 25 years old and entering free agency after somewhat of a disappointing season. After posting career high figures in points, PER, and minutes two years ago, Miles experienced somewhat of a down year in 2012. His PPG dropped from 12.8 to 9.1, and he averaged almost five fewer minutes of playing time every night.
At one point in his career a full-time starter, Miles shot a deplorable 38.1 percent from the field this season. Being that he was playing in a contract year, the season-long funk wasn't good timing. But similar to Pau Gasol in Los Angeles, a change of scenery might be all that he needs to get back on the right track. Miles grew up learning how to play basketball from Jerry Sloan, one of the greatest coaches in league history, but last season he clashed a bit with the newcomer, Ty Corbin.
As he heads into free agency, Miles will have suitors. He's shown he can shoot a decent but not great three-ball (career 33 percent), and at 6'6" has the size and athleticism to roam the perimeter and wreak havoc in transition. In 2010, Miles averaged 14.4 PPG in 10 playoff games. He was only 22-years-old, and the fourth option on his team.
Born in Dallas, Texas, Miles has gone on record saying he'd love to play for his hometown Mavericks, but it's questionable as to whether or not that team shares mutual admiration. If Dallas is looking to get younger while adding someone with playoff experience, then Miles certainly fits. But it all depends on what they choose to do with free agents Jason Terry and Delonte West. And then, of course, there's the elephant in the room named Deron Williams, who further complicates the team's salary situation.
In 2008, the Jazz matched a four-year, $14.8MM offer sheet from Oklahoma City. They won't be able to do it again, and after making his disapproval for Coach Corbin clear once the season was over, it's probable Miles isn't returning to Utah.
It doesn't seem that long ago that Josh Howard was a 26-year-old playing in his first All-Star game after starting for the Mavs in the Finals the season before. That was more than five years ago, though, and it's been a slow descent for the 6'7", 210-pound swingman ever since. He bottomed out during a year and a half in Washington, tearing his ACL four games after the Mavs traded him there. He played in only 20 games over two seasons before he signing this past December with the Jazz. This season he struggled in the playoffs after left knee surgery in March knocked him out for more than a month. Now he faces uncertainty as he heads into unrestricted free agency for the third time in as many years.
He signed a $2.15MM contract with the Jazz before the season, coming off a one-year, $3MM deal with the Wizards in 2010/11. That was a significant paycut after finishing off a four-year, $41.67MM contract. Howard may have been on the way to reversing his trend of declining salaries during a string of 15 games before he hurt his knee this year. He started each of those games, averaging 10.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and a steal in 27.5 minutes a night, but he wasn't the same after his return, going for just 3.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG as the Jazz were swept by the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs.
Howard's saving grace might be weak competition among free agent small forwards. He's arguably the best unrestricted free agent at his position, and after Nicolas Batum, the restricted class doesn't look that impressive, either. There's a decent chance Howard winds up back with the Jazz, as GM Kevin O'Connor has said the team is open to bringing him back. It's far from a lock, however, as the team could easily use Gordon Hayward as the starter at the 3 or experiment with DeMarre Carroll in that role, as was the case when Howard was injured this year.
The draft lottery doesn't hold great personal interest for a lot of 32-year-old veterans in the NBA, but it may have a roundabout impact on Howard's destination. If the Warriors' pick falls out of the the top seven, it goes to the Jazz, and if Utah takes a small forward like Harrison Barnes or Terrence Jones, Howard could be on his way out. If the Warriors, a team that will be looking for a small forward this summer, keep the pick, they could take Barnes, Jones or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, eliminating the need to sign a veteran like Howard. The Raptors, another team looking for a small forward, may also choose to do so with a high draft pick instead of free agency.
The Bucks, Timberwolves and Suns are three more teams with money to spend that could have interest in Howard as a starter, but the best situation for him might be as a reserve for a veteran team. He can play limited minutes, minimizing the amount of stress on his body, and he's shown he can be a valuable contributor, if not a primary offensive option, when healthy. I could see him flourishing with the Grizzlies, who might envision him as a cost-effective replacement for O.J. Mayo.
2011/12 was far from the best year of Chris Kaman's career. He was traded to New Orleans, where the Hornets kept him out of action for a number of weeks while the team attempted to turn around and deal him again. When he was finally brought back, Kaman posted a .446 FG%, the lowest mark of his career, for a squad that finished last in the Western Conference.
The good news for Kaman? If you're a seven-footer and you're heading to NBA free agency, there's a great chance you'll do well for yourself. Given the dearth of quality true centers in the league, the 30-year-old is poised to land a lucrative multiyear contract this summer.
Of course, Kaman is coming off a year in which his salary exceeded $14MM, so shooting for a raise may not be realistic. But it's not like the big man will have to settle for the mid-level exception either. Despite shooting a career-low percentage from the floor, Kaman still averaged 13.1 points and 7.7 rebounds in less than 30 minutes per game, and his PER (15.3) was above average for the third consecutive year. Last offseason, centers far less productive than Kaman, such as Samuel Dalembert and Kwame Brown, signed deals in the neighborhood of $7MM. A reliable big such as Kaman could earn an offer that pays him an eight-digit salary annually.
What sort of contract Kaman signs this offseason will also depend on his priorities. Having earned well over $60MM in his career, according to Basketball-Reference, Kaman could turn down the largest offer in search of a more modest payday from a title contender. The Heat, for instance, would likely jump at the chance to pay Kaman their mid-level exception. But the seven-footer would have to be willing to leave a lot of money on the table — as a taxpaying team, Miami could only offer a contract starting at $3MM using the MLE.
It's more likely that Kaman lands with a team willing to use a chunk of its cap room to sign him to a larger deal. The Rockets had interest in him prior to the trade deadline, and will have the space to make him a sizable offer, if they so choose. The Celtics are another team that could clear plenty of cap space, and will be searching for a presence in the paint. The Pacers and Nets could also have interest, though I expect both teams to re-sign their own restricted free agent centers, Roy Hibbert and Brook Lopez.
Kaman isn't the player that Steve Nash is, and isn't quite so close to the end of his career, but there are similarities in their free agent cases. Both players will likely receive significant offers from teams that could be playoff contenders, along with smaller offers from clubs that will be in great position to contend for a title. While the draw of a championship may win out in Nash's case, I can't see Kaman leaving a ton of money on the table at age 30. He should have time to chase a title later in his career — this summer, I think a team with cap room to burn will make him a lucrative offer that he won't be able to turn down.
As the Lakers struggled in Game 1 against the Thunder on Monday evening, Ramon Sessions' future with the team remains slightly ambiguous. Acquired at the trade deadline from the Cavaliers, Sessions proved to be a strong upgrade at the point guard position over the aging Derek Fisher as he infused the Lakers' backcourt with youth and energy. The former Nevada star holds a player option for next season at $4.55MM after averaging 11.3 PPG and and 5.5 APG in 64 games this past year.
Sessions' departure from Cleveland allowed for the 26-year-old guard to assume a consistent starting role for the first time in his career and thrived upon his arrival in Los Angeles. His style of play is predicated on driving to the basket and using his 6-foot-3 frame to post up his opponent. Health has not been a serious concern for Sessions as he's demonstrated an ability to stay on the court and fight through lingering injuries throughout his career. He earned $4.26MM during the 2011/2012 season and will potentially look to get a contract that exceeds his player option for next year by signing a multiyear deal this summer.
While Sessions is clearly a strong young talent with many dynamic aspects to his game, there are still areas of weakness that keep him from being a complete player on both sides of the ball. Sessions lacks a reliable jump shot and stays away from taking many three-pointers, both of which decrease the amount of points he contributes on a nightly basis. Defensively, Sessions uses his quickness to his advantage as he's an average defender who doesn't accumulate many steals and struggles to defend post players given his slight build.
Sessions proved enough with the Lakers during the regular season that his sporadic performances thus far during the playoffs may not be enough to deter the fifth-year player from declining his player option. The Lakers will likely be one of his chief suitors regardless of Sessions' decision, unless Los Angeles decides to blow up their roster in the wake of a potential sweep by the Thunder. In such a situation, the Lakers would attempt to trade Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol with hopes of landing Dwight Howard and may pursue a veteran point guard like Steve Nash in an effort to provide Kobe Bryant the best chance to win another ring.
Sessions spoke with the media during the first round of the playoffs about coming to the Lakers, how he's handled his new role as a starter and his thoughts for the future. "It's definitely something that's not in the back of my mind right now because I'm trying to focus on the playoffs," Sessions said on the eve of Game 4 [against the Nuggets]. "It's not even a concern. I don't know what's going to happen. I know it's coming. "It's something I'll deal with."
Whatever team ends up with Sessions can expect 28 to 32 minutes per game with 12 to 15 points and approximately 5 to 6 assists per contest. He has shown that he can handle the starting point guard position on a squad full of superstars and big personalities during his brief tenure in Los Angeles. Look for Sessions to decline his player option this offseason and re-sign with the Lakers on a multiyear contract.
The Knicks' salary cap situation has received plenty of attention lately, and rightly so. With Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler taking up a good chunk of the team's payroll for the next three years, there's little flexibility to bring in more talent or even bring back the team's own free agents. While the Grizzlies may not be quite as hamstrung, Memphis' situation isn't unlike New York's.
Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, and Marc Gasol are set to earn about $47MM next year, and that number will only increase over the next couple seasons. With Mike Conley and a number of other players on guaranteed contracts for 2012/13, Memphis heads into the summer with about $62.5MM already committed to team salary.
Owner Michael Heisley has said he doesn't want the Grizzlies to be a taxpaying team, so unless the club finds a blockbuster deal in which it moves one of its expensive stars and regains some cap flexbility, one player is clearly on his way out of town: O.J. Mayo.
Mayo is frequently referred to as a restricted free agent, but the chances he becomes restricted are slim. The Grizzlies would have to extend him a one-year qualifying offer worth about $7.39MM in order to make him a restricted free agent. If Heisley is serious about avoiding the luxury tax, the Grizzlies probably can't risk making such an offer, since the team would be forced past the tax threshold if Mayo were to accept it.
So the former third overall pick appears poised to join a group of unrestricted free agent two guards that already includes Ray Allen, Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, Nick Young, C.J. Miles, and others. While it's a stacked group, it won't necessarily lead to a buyer's market. The Celtics, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Pacers, Clippers, Timberwolves, Magic, and Trail Blazers are among the clubs that could be interesting in signing a free agent two guard this summer.
Of course, Mayo's suitors may not be limited to teams in need of a shooting guard. The 24-year-old has expressed a desire to play the point, and while it would take an adventurous or desperate team to sign him as its starting point guard, perhaps he could draw interest as a combo guard that can earn minutes at both backcourt spots.
Coming off a $5.63MM salary in 2011/12, Mayo likely won't be eager to take a pay cut, but it's hard to imagine him getting an offer much larger than the $5MM mid-level. That means teams with cap space, such as the Cavs or Pacers, won't necessarily have the advantage over over-the-cap clubs like the Clippers and Timberwolves.
Mayo, who was considered the top prep star in the country in 2007, has yet to become the NBA difference-maker that many were expecting. But at the very least, he's turned into a solid scorer, and a player who figures to earn a multiyear deal worth at least in the neighborhood of $5MM annually this offseason.
The story of Jeremy Lin has been told countless times over the course of the 2011/2012 season. From going undrafted coming out of Harvard in 2010 to starring for the Knicks after being waived twice prior to the start of the season, Lin's young career has been an emotional roller coaster of extreme highs and incredible lows in just two short years. With the star point guard seemingly sidelined for the remainder of the playoffs due to a torn meniscus, Lin will enter the offseason as a restricted free agent.
A quick look at Lin's numbers, while a limited sample size, reveal a developing star who would be a welcome addition to any team's backcourt. Lin played in 35 games with the Knicks during the 2011/2012 season in which he started 25 contests. The 6-foot-3 guard averaged 14.6 PPG and 6.2 APG after signing with the Knicks on December 27. Heading into his third season, Lin will look to hold onto the ball with more care after averaging 3.6 turnovers per game with the Knicks.
Lin's value goes beyond his contributions at the point guard position as he is a dream for any team's marketing staff. As an intelligent individual with deep religious convictions, similar to the NFL's Tim Tebow, Lin became an instant fan favorite with the Madison Square Garden crowd. He also demonstrated burgeoning leadership ability that unified a fractured team and was quickly respected by his teammates including veterans Tyson Chandler and Carmelo Anthony. Thanks to jersey and t-shirt sales associated with "Linsanity," Madison Square Garden saw merchandise profits increase in the single-digit millions.
The Knicks will be afforded a strong opportunity to retain Lin thanks to changes to what teams can offer restricted free agents with fewer than three years in the league. Dubbed the "Gilbert Arenas provision," teams looking to compete with the Knicks for Lin's services cannot offer more than the mid-level exception for the first year of a new contract. This will allow for the Knicks to be able to match any offer made by another team looking to steal Lin away from MSG. The Knicks will seemingly look to sign Lin for more than one season as Lin would once again become a restricted free agent in 2013 in which the Knicks would only be protected by holding Lin's Early Bird Rights.
Re-signing Lin should still allow the Knicks to be able to retain Landry Fields, who is also slated to become a restricted free agent this offseason. Fields' performance in his second season could be described as a disappointment after enjoying a surprisingly successful rookie campaign with the Knicks. The former Stanford star saw his points per game decrease (9.7 to 8.8) as well as his rebounds per game (6.4 to 4.2) while averaging nearly three minutes less per contest.
Unless the Knicks attempt to sign Steve Nash (unlikely) as a prerequisite for Phil Jackson coming on board (even less likely), look for Lin to be wearing orange and blue this October.