Free Agent Stock Watch Rumors | Hoops Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Tim Duncan

May 7th, 2012 at 8:11pm CST by Michael Pina

Few players are more identifiable with one franchise than Tim Duncan is with the San Antonio Spurs. Now in his 15th season, the 36-year-old future Hall of Famer is still playing great basketball, averaging 15.4PPG and 9.0 RPG this season. While remaining an above average offensive option in the post, and one of the game's most intelligent, underrated defenders, Duncan is an unrestricted free agent this summer, bringing the type of experience that makes his value a difficult one to quantify on the open market.

He's making $21.3MM this season, but that number will surely go down. He's far from an elite franchise player, but is still capable of playing a major role in what would be a truly remarkable fifth championship for the Spurs—their first since 2007.

With Danny Green and Gary Neal coming off San Antonio's books, it'll be interesting to see how much money the team looks to invest in the two players who've played well above their salary this season. Boris Diaw will also become a free agent, and a player of his skill—when motivated (as he appears to be alongside Tony Parker)—could be worth another contract.

What makes this situation so intriguing is the player in question. Duncan doesn't even have an agent right now, and claims he hasn't even begun thinking about his future, but it wouldn't be a shock to see a non-tax-paying team throw a full mid-level in his direction, which could net him over $20MM over the next four years. Still, it'd be hard to imagine him leaving the one franchise he's ever known. A player of Duncan's stature doesn't appear to be in it for the money at this point. He's won four championships and is arguably one of the 10 greatest overall players the league has ever seen. There's little to prove, and less to chase. The team he currently plays for is a title contender, and should continue to find success for the next few years.

Duncan has been known to sign "team friendly" deals in the past, taking less than the maximum deal for which he was eligible after extending his contract in 2007. But to see him sign for the veteran's minimum ($1.35MM for next season) might be asking too much. Due to the fact that he remains an important part of the Spurs vaunted system, if I had to guess, the team will make re-signing Duncan a serious priority this summer.

The Spurs cap figure for next season currently stands at approximately $49.2MM. Because they own Duncan's Bird Rights, any maximum contract within the CBA's limitations is possible. But due to his age, something around two years for $20MM could be expected.

Free Agent Stock Watch: JaVale McGee

May 7th, 2012 at 1:06pm CST by Luke Adams

During his time with the Wizards, JaVale McGee was a walking highlight reel. Of course, for every memorable dunk or blocked shot, there was even more memorable miscue, whether it was running back on defense when his team had the ball, or blatantly goaltending a shot into the fifth row. Michael Lee of the Washington Post said it best earlier this season when he wrote that McGee has a penchant for mixing "the spectacular with the perplexing."

The deadline deal that sent McGee to Denver in a package for Nene gave the seven-footer a chance for a fresh start, and he took advantage, averaging a career-best 18.0 points per 36 minutes and .612 FG% in his 20 games with the Nuggets. His play in the postseason has been inconsistent, but he's shown flashes of brilliance, swatting away six shots in Game Two and grabbing 15 boards to go with 16 points in Game Three.

Although McGee hasn't necessarily shed the "perplexing" label he earned with the Wizards, he appears to have benefited from a change of scenery and a chance to be a contributor on a veteran squad, rather than a leader on a young lottery team. His play in Denver should earn him more interest in free agency than he would have received had he finished the season mixing highlights with lowlights in Washington.

The Nuggets figure to make a play to retain McGee this year, having parted with a quality big man in Nene to acquire him. But there's no guarantee the restricted free agent will return to Denver, if another team swoops in with an aggressive offer sheet. Chris Broussard of ESPN.com reported in March that McGee will be seeking a contract worth $14MM annually this summer, and while that amount may be wildly optimistic, McGee is the type of high-upside player that could inspire a team desperate for size to make an overly aggressive offer.

Last month, Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld reported that the Nuggets would likely match any offer of $7MM or less annually, and I could even see them going a little higher than that. But the Nuggets are very unlikely to match anything approaching the $13MM-per-year price tag they just shed by moving Nene.

Will JaVale get an offer anywhere near the amount he's reportedly seeking? Probably not. Even considering the premium price placed on NBA bigs, it's hard to imagine which team would offer McGee an annual eight-digit salary. The Cavaliers, Rockets, Bucks, and Trail Blazers are a few clubs who will be in the market for a center and should have plenty of cap space, but I wouldn't be surprised if McGee ultimately re-signed in Denver for a multiyear deal worth about $8-9MM annually.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Kidd

May 6th, 2012 at 6:49pm CST by Chuck Myron

Jason Kidd is heading to the Hall of Fame soon. We just don't know where he's going on the way there. While both the Mavs and Kidd have reportedly indicated a willingness for him to return as a backup next year, it's unclear whether Dallas will be willing to meet his salary demands. Chris Mannix of SI.com reported earlier this week that Kidd is seeking a deal worth about the mid-level exception amount of $5MM a year. The Mavs figure to have plenty of cap room, but any team would be wary of paying that amount to a player who'll turn 40 before next season ends.

Kidd's skills have been in decline for a while now, and the aspect of his game that appeared to take the most significant step back is his playmaking ability, as he dropped from 8.2 APG to a career-low 5.5 this year. The improved outside shot that allowed him to shoot over 40% from three-point range his first three seasons in Dallas has been absent the last two years, as he's shot just 34.5% on treys. He still rebounds at a high rate for a point guard, grabbing 5.2 per 36 minutes this season, but it hasn't kept him from putting up a career-low PER (13.1) for the second year in a row. Perhaps his saving grace has been the ability to force turnovers. He led all postseason performers with 40 steals last year, and through Saturday he was doing so again this year, with 12 steals in four games. Steals, however, don't necessarily mean you're a quality defender, and Mavs coach Rick Carlisle uses cross-matches or a zone to make sure Kidd doesn't have to defend quick point guards.

It's likely most teams will find Kidd's greatest value is his ability to mentor a younger point guard in a role similar to the one Derek Fisher is playing in Oklahoma City. That's clearly what the Mavs have in mind when they think about bringing him back in the hopes that Deron Williams signs to take over the starting role. Kidd has had a Hall of Fame career and owns an NBA championship ring from last season, so he knows what it takes to succeed in the NBA. Marcus Thompson II of the Bay Area News group said earlier this week the Warriors will explore signing Kidd, a Bay Area native, but that's probably contingent on the unlikely event that Deron Williams signs with Golden State, too. Tayshaun Prince called upon the Pistons to go after a veteran point guard to mentor Brandon Knight, so maybe Kidd heads to Detroit. The Cavs, with young Kyrie Irving in tow, could use some of their ample cap space to go after Kidd, since even at his advanced age, he probably represents an upgrade over current backup point guard Donald Sloan. Kidd could also wind up as Williams' backup in Brooklyn instead of Dallas, as Jeff Caplan of ESPNDallas.com suggests. Both point guards are clients of agent Jeff Schwartz.

Caplan's story also reports that Kidd would like to play two more seasons, which refutes the report earlier in the week from Mannix that Kidd will retire if he doesn't get that mid-level deal. Kidd doesn't think he'll be waiting too long, telling Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News, "I'll land somewhere early, I would think." If that's the case, it suggests Kidd won't wait for Deron Williams to decide where he's going. Judging by his comments this week, my guess is he and the Mavs have talked about a deal and are haggling over specifics. If that's the case, I think Kidd's path to Springfield will continue to detour through Dallas.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Terry

May 6th, 2012 at 12:26pm CST by Daniel Seco

With the Mavs left to watch the remainder of the playoffs from the comfort of their homes, Jason Terry's future with the team remains up in the air. Having spent eight seasons with the Mavs and winning an NBA championship last season, Terry will have to decide if he wants to return to Dallas, sign with another contender or attempt to secure one last sizable paycheck from the highest bidder. The former Arizona star remains a viable offensive option even as he turns 35 this September after a season in which he averaged 15.1 PPG and 3.6 APG.

There's a lot to like about Terry beyond just the points that he will provide at the shooting guard position. While he's advancing in age, Terry has stayed healthy practically his entire career as he's never played less than 74 games in a non-lockout season over his 13 years in the league. Terry's also a solid defender who has the ability to create points on the defensive end of the court by stealing the ball (1.3 SPG over the course of his career) and playing high-energy defense. He made over $11MM this past season but should be willing to accept a sizable decrease in salary with adding another ring to his collection taking precedent over the size of his paycheck.

Terry is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and will seemingly have a variety of options to choose from as he enters the twilight of his career. There's a chance the Mavs attempt to re-sign him, but owner Mark Cuban will more likely focus his attention on luring Deron Williams to Dallas and keeping Jason Kidd in blue and white to back him up. If Cuban does want to bring Terry back it would be at a price lower than market value to an already-aging roster that requires serious upgrading after being swept by the Thunder.

Terry spoke on Saturday after the team's Game 4 loss to the Thunder and addressed his future with the Mavs. "You know we like to make changes year-in and year-out, but not a complete overhaul," Terry said. "That’s what this is going to be, an entire different ballclub I would expect. But, the formula is there, the formula’s there. We set the bar very high last year with what we did and what we accomplished. They know the formula and it’s on them to put it back together."

Earlier in the year there was speculation that Terry would be heading to the Heat to provide depth to a suspect bench. While Terry would potentially be a good fit in Miami, the Heat lack the cap space to sign him unless he is willing to take a significant pay cut to take his talents to South Beach. The Heat's involvement with Terry will depend on how they fare over the course of playoffs. If they win the championship, it becomes less likely that they would seriously consider signing Terry. Conversely, if the Heat's bench fails to provide the Big Three the support they need to win a ring, then look for Miami to at least engage Terry's agent in preliminary conversation about a contract.

Beyond the Mavs and the Heat, Terry's options vary depending on the role that teams want the veteran to assume on their respective rosters. Terry has enjoyed success as a starter as well as while the sixth man on a championship team. Jet is only 6-foot-2 but has the quickness to create his own shot off the dribble and can even play the point guard position if necessary. Beyond age and decreasing offensive productivity, Terry has been known as a streaky shooter throughout his tenure in the NBA and will presumably become even more so as his career winds down.

Whatever team ends up with Terry can expect 25 to 30 minutes per game with 13 to 15 points per contest. He is a proven winner with experience thriving in a locker room full of superstars and big personalities. Look for Terry to land with a contending team in search of a missing piece to make a championship run.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Grant Hill

May 5th, 2012 at 8:43pm CST by Ryan Raroque

This past December, then-free agent Grant Hill was rumored to be interested in the Bulls, Knicks, Clippers, and Spurs before ultimately choosing to stay in Phoenix. At the time, Steve Nash had publicly stated that it was "very, very important" to him that the Suns retain Hill. Now that Nash's future with the franchise remains up in the air, the former Duke product could also be wearing a different uniform on opening night in October.

Chris Tomasson of Fox Sports quoted Hill before a loss in Miami on March 20: "I definitely think I can go another year, maybe two…If the season were to end right now, and I would sort of evaluate the season, I would definitely want to come back and play next season." Hill would undergo knee surgery 10 days later, and wasn't able to play much for the rest of the season after returning on April 13.

Now heading into another summer of free agency, it's safe to presume that Hill will have some question marks about his durability that may not have been there during last year's offseason. From 2008-09 to 2010-11, Hill managed to play in at least 80 games in each of those seasons and averaged roughly 30 MPG. Despite being able to play 28 MPG this season, he missed 17 games (many of them occurring late in the season while the Suns competed for the eighth seed in the West), which marks the most he's missed since being a member of the Magic in 2006-07.

This year, Hill averaged 10.2 PPG while shooting 44.6% from the field and 76.1% from the free throw line. Although those numbers rank among the lowest statistical averages he's produced over his 17-year career, that type of contribution could still be valuable on a playoff team looking to add depth and veteran leadership. Should he decide to play next year, I don't expect Hill to be playing nearly the same amount of minutes as he did with the Suns.

At this point, I'm not so sure he'd be able to garner a contract for more than the veteran's minimum. Hill turns 40-years-old in October, so his chances of receiving a multi-year deal are very slim. With that being said, I could see him being linked to wherever Steve Nash's name comes up this summer. Their friendship was a major reason why Hill stayed in Phoenix, and after playing five consecutive years together, the opportunity for both to compete together as teammates on a contending team will be an intriguing option to consider moving forward, especially if it will be Hill's last season as a pro.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Roy Hibbert

May 3rd, 2012 at 8:35pm CST by Michael Pina

Size matters in the NBA. Roy Hibbert is listed at 7'2". When adding those two sentences together, you begin to arrive at the conclusion that Hibbert, a restricted free agent, could be one of the most sought-after commodities this summer. He entered the league as a serviceable project with what appeared to be a limited ceiling, but coming off his first All-Star appearance this year, Hibbert's future now appears brighter than most who play his position.

Last season Hibbert averaged 12.8 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 3.7 FTAPG, 29.8 MPG, and shot 49.7% from the floor. In a lockout-shortened, physically-excruciating season, all were career bests. He's a player who should only get better over the next few years of his career, and whoever signs him will have a rebounding advantage almost every night that he suits up.

Depending on how you look at it, the Pacers are in an enviable position with loads of cap space heading into the offseason. It's a roster compiled of hard-working, high-intensity guys, but with no go-to crunch-time scorer their team that has no realistic shot at winning a championship without making a significant upgrade to their roster. They've been patient for years, but with one of their most prized projects hitting restricted free agency, a slew of teams will be lined up to make Roy Hibbert significant contract offers. As a small market organization that's forced to make shrewd financial decisions when it comes to paying players big money, the Pacers will have a difficult decision to make regarding whether they keep Hibbert on board, or choose to set him free.

Here are the figures a few centers made in the first year of their deals signed this past offseason: DeAndre Jordan ($10MM), Marc Gasol ($12.9MM), Tyson Chandler ($13.1MM), and Nene ($13MM). Hibbert should stand to make somewhere between $10-14MM.

While almost every team in the NBA could use a center who's above average on both ends of the floor, improving each and every season, the Celtics and Rockets are two teams who not only have the need, but the cap space to make a legitimate offer. Both have rebouding issues, and both struggle getting easy baskets with interior play in the post. Along with becoming a regular participant at All-Star weekend over the next few years, Hibbert has the physical intangibles to be an efficient difference-maker on a title contender. It's only a matter of where he ends up next season that could determine the impact Roy Hibbert has throughout his career.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Gerald Green

April 24th, 2012 at 10:04am CST by Luke Adams

Anyone watching Gerald Green play for the D-League's Los Angeles D-Fenders earlier this season had to figure it was only a matter of time until the 26-year-old earned another shot in the NBA. That shot finally came in the form of a 10-day contract from the Nets, and turned into a rest-of-season deal with New Jersey. Green didn't disappoint, showing off the talents that made him the 18th overall pick in the 2005 draft.

Although he's spent the last few seasons in Russia, China, and the D-League, and is seeing his first NBA action since 2008/09, Green looks like he's here to stay. In 30 games for the Nets, he has averaged 13.0 points and a 16.2 PER on .489/.383/.766 shooting in just 25.2 minutes per game. Not just a high flier whose dunks appear on SportsCenter, Green appears to have evolved into a solid NBA rotation piece.

Because the Nets only signed him to a contract for the rest of the season, Green will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, but it sounds as if he wants to remain a Net. When he signed his deal, Green said he wanted to give the team cap flexibility, but that he's "not trying to go anywhere." More recently, he spoke of having a "strong feeling" he'd remain a Net, even talking about potentially giving the team a discount in free agency.

Of course, most NBA players will talk about wanting to return to their current teams at this time of year, but that doesn't guarantee anything. The Nets figure to be active in free agency, and if they're able to retain Deron Williams, Brook Lopez, and Gerald Wallace, they could focus on a high-profile power forward to join their core, leaving little cap room available for Green. The Lakers are thought to have interest in Green as well, and the former Celtic didn't close the door on returning to Boston.

When Green spoke last week about his desire to return to the Nets, he commented, "It's not like I have to weigh my options. I really don't have options." While that may be the case right now, I think Green will have a handful of offers to choose from when the NBA's free agency period begins. Over-the-cap playoff contenders in need of a scorer off the bench could consider him with their mid-level exceptions, and under-the-cap teams who miss out on top free agents could pursue him as a Plan B. I don't see the 26-year-old having to settle for a minimum-salary contract.

Green may ultimately end up remaining a Net and bringing his high-flying dunks to Brooklyn next season. But if he does, he'll be choosing Brooklyn over other teams, not accepting the only offer he has on the table.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nicolas Batum

April 23rd, 2012 at 6:32pm CST by Chuck Myron

Nicolas Batum’s comments last week, in which he called Portland “special” and said he expects to return to the Blazers next year unless a better situation presents itself, represent quite a change from earlier this season. Soon after Batum and the team failed to come to terms on an extension in January, making him a restricted free agent at season's end, Batum’s agent, Bouna Ndiaye, had some harsh words for Blazer management, as Joe Freeman of The Oregonian noted. "They say they love him but they didn't offer him something fair, so that's it," he said. "We tried and there's no deal. On July 1 we're going to look at the market first before we come back to the Blazers. That's for sure."

Whether or not Batum wants to return to Portland, the team resisted trading him at the deadline, and team president Larry Miller has said the team plans on bringing him back, as long as another team doesn't make a "crazy" offer, Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune reported. The Blazers have the right to match any offer, but this indicates there is a ceiling on how much they value Batum. That's subject to change if the team winds up hiring someone to replace interim GM Chad Buchanan, especially since Batum seems like a hard player to properly evaluate. At 23 years old with a 7'1" wingspan, the 6'8" Batum possesses a tantalizing combination of the athleticism to guard multiple positions with an outside shooting touch, having hit 37.2% of his career three-pointers, including 39.1% this year. The problem for Batum, and for general managers, is that this is juxtaposed with inconsistency and less year-to-year improvement than you would expect from a player his age. His per-36-minutes numbers in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks have scarcely budged during his career, and his steadily climbing scoring average, up to 13.9 PPG this year, can be attributed to a corresponding rise in his number of field goal attempts.

The failure of the Blazers to get past the first round of the playoffs in his previous three seasons certainly can't be placed entirely on Batum's shoulders, but in each series, his points and minutes have fallen off from the regular season that preceded it. There are plenty of red flags on Batum's record, but he's still young enough to convince GMs that he can find that extra gear somewhere. He might be a fit for the Jazz, a team with a history of helping young talent develop, or the Raptors, who have coveted a small forward. It all depends on Miller's definition of "crazy," but I still don't think any team is going to go overboard for him. Eggers said he can expect a deal of about $9MM a year, which sounds right for a player of his potential, even if his numbers so far might not support it. Unless the Blazers change course with a new GM, they'll likely bring him back and hope Kaleb Canales or another coach can bring out his best.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nate Robinson

April 18th, 2012 at 11:00pm CST by Ryan Raroque

Nate Robinson's career in the NBA has been a rollercoaster ride to say the least. In 2009, he went from being in Mike D'Antoni's doghouse to responding with a 41-point outburst after 15 straight DNP-CDs. In Boston, he had been a key rotation player for a playoff contender under Doc Rivers but later became an afterthought at the end of the bench in Oklahoma City. Today, Robinson seems to have found a home in Golden State under the guidance of Mark Jackson.

From a talent-perspective, there's not much one can take away from Nate. At 5'9'', he has still found a way to be a productive player, averaging double figure scoring in 4 of his 6 full seasons in the league. During the 2008-09 season, Nate averaged 17.2 PPG, 4.1 APG, and 3.9 RPG in 74 games and just 11 starts. While he may not be a traditional point guard, the Seattle native has more than solid one-on-one skills and can score the basketball at a high rate on any given night.

The flip side of the coin is the baggage that he's carried along over the course of his career. In 2006, Nate drew the ire of Larry Brown for his immaturity and showboating. His bad reputation would still linger a few years later in Boston. While describing his experience with the Celtics during the 2010-11 season, Shaquille O'Neal recently depicted Nate as a prankster who was more concerned with his public persona more than anything else. The Thunder didn't appear to have any interest in retaining Robinson, as they would later buy out his contract at the end of the year after trading for him.

Before the season, Nate responded to those who held his reputation in doubt:

"I could always have [handled things] better, but that's what maturity and growing is," Robinson said. "I've matured a lot, but I'm a fun type of guy. … When I play basketball, I play with my heart and I play for my team. I play for my family, I play for the fans, and I play to win. Regardless of what I do after practice, or hanging out on the bus or after practice with the team, I'm just a fun type of guy. But when it's time to play basketball, I'm all the way focused."

This season, he is averaging 11.2 PPG and 4.5 APG in 23.4 MPG while keeping his antics under the radar and showing that he can still be a solid contributor. His 42.4 FG% isn't ideal, but his ability to create his own shot still makes him a potent offensive weapon. He poured in 24 points in a win versus Miami, 21 points in a win over Dallas, 20 points and 11 assists in a 2-point loss to Boston, and most recently followed up a 28-point outing on the Clippers with a 30-point game against the Spurs.

I expect Nate to give the Warriors the first priority on being able to re-sign him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he entertained offers from other teams looking to bolster their second unit this summer. He should be able to use his performance this season to his credit when marketing himself to other teams.

Free Agent Stock Watch Series

April 17th, 2012 at 10:54am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2011/12 season winding down, players on expiring contracts and teams with cap space will begin to turn their attention to free agency. A number of players are already poised to hit unrestricted or restricted free agency, while plenty of others have options or non-guaranteed contracts for 2012/13 and could become free agents as well.

We've already provided a general overview of this year's free agent class, broken down by position. As we approach the offseason, Hoops Rumors will take a look at specific free agents, examining each player's stock as he prepares to sign a new contract. The Free Agent Stock Watch pieces will explore how this year's performance could affect a player's future earnings, what sort of deal he'll be seeking, what teams might be interested, and any other relevant factors.

Listed below are the players whose free agent stock we've looked at so far. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with restricted free agents marked accordingly. You can find this list, which we'll continue to update, anytime on the right sidebar under "Hoops Rumors Features."