Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Antawn Jamison

April 15th, 2012 at 11:00pm CST by Ryan Raroque

In the 1996 movie Eddie, Whoopi Goldberg plays a die-hard Knicks fan who eventually becomes the team's head coach after winning a halftime contest. John Salley plays a wily old veteran player who is called on to step in and contribute after the team's superstar encounters some struggles. While the former will likely never happen in real life, the idea of players in their twilight stage being able to contribute on competitive teams is not a far-fetched occurrence in the NBA. Grant Hill, at 38-years-old, played in 81 regular season games and 16 playoff games averaging 30 MPG for a Suns team that reached the Western Conference Finals in 2010. Ray Allen, who is set to turn 37 this July, has played in at least 91% of his teams games and has averaged at least 34 MPG in each of his last three seasons with Boston. Waiting in the wings to play for a contending team is 35-year-old Antawn Jamison.

After being dealt three times in the span of his 14-year career, Jamison heads into this summer with the ability to choose his own destination. As we documented earlier this month, Jamison is unlikely to remain in Cleveland:

"I want to win," Jamison said. "Tomorrow is not promised. I might not be here next year. I can’t worry about what we’re planning for next year. For me and a lot of these other guys, what can we do now? It was tough to know we were so close [to playoff contention] and instead of taking steps forward, we took dramatic steps backward."

Boasting averages of 17.8 PPG and 6.4 RPG, Jamison will be an attractive free agent for contending teams who will not have to break the bank too much in order to add a valuable rotation player. Another selling point will be how healthy he's been able to keep himself this season, playing 33.7 MPG and starting in all the 57 games he's played in. While his 41.2 FG% this year is less than spectacular, I doubt that he will maintain such a high volume of attempts (16.5) wherever he winds up next year.

Jamison can play either forward spot, and his skill set can be effectively utilized in small lineups. His long-range shooting ability could force conventional power forwards to guard him out on the perimeter where they are uncomfortable defensively, which consequently spaces the floor and opens the driving lanes for his teammates. His numbers also show that he can still be active on the glass, as his 2 offensive RPG average would indicate. Jamison may very well be a modicum of productivity with a team's second unit, given the type of numbers he's been able to put up this season.

I would think that both the Heat and Thunder would be on the radar, or at least have interest from Antawn's side. Chicago still has Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson, Ronnie Brewer, Luol Deng, and Jimmy Butler in their forward crop, so it doesn't necessarily look like an ideal fit at this point. The Lakers could also show some interest, but they are still in line to handle Ramon Sessions' status as an unrestricted free agent and will exercise Andrew Bynum's $16.1MM team option for next season (not to mention that they would be pushing themselves considerably further above the luxury tax). This is all speculation of course, but I would think that whoever is still active in late May/early June will be a candidate to land Jamison in July.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Goran Dragic

April 14th, 2012 at 2:14pm CST by Chuck Myron

Perhaps no free agent has done more to lift his stock down the stretch than Rockets point guard Goran Dragic. In 19 games since stepping into the starter's job for Kyle Lowry, who's battling a bacterial infection, Dragic has put up 18.7 PPG and 8.5 APG, well above the marks of 7.1 PPG and 3.0 APG he had produced up to that point. Dragic had only started 15 games total in four NBA seasons prior to Lowry's illness, so it's the first time the native of Slovenia has really had a chance to run an NBA team. Now that other teams have seen what he can do, Dragic stands to get a significant raise on his $2.1MM salary this season when he enters unrestricted free agency in the summer.

Dragic could be the second best point guard behind Deron Williams on the unrestricted market, depending on how highly GMs value aging Steve Nash, whom Dragic used to back up in Phoenix. Dragic credits his development in large part to Nash's influence, while Nash speaks highly of Dragic's game as well. It's a stretch to say Dragic is playing up to the level of the two-time MVP, but it's clear he learned much from his role as understudy. He played a key role in Phoenix's run to the conference finals in 2010, posting a 17.2 PER in 14.8 minutes a game during the postseason, a level of efficiency he never quite matched in the rest of his time with the Suns. That's changed in Houston, where his PER is 18.0 this year. The bugaboo for Dragic has always been turnovers. He's averaged 3.3 giveaways per 36 minutes for his career, and has continued to turn the ball over at nearly that rate despite his otherwise dazzling play since becoming a starter. While his assist numbers make it nearly a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio during his hot stretch of late, GMs will likely still call his ballhandling into question.

Dragic is a product of the Spurs international scouting. San Antonio drafted him in the second round in 2008 before shipping him to Phoenix for a pick that became DeJuan Blair. Whether he'll be on the move again this summer depends on whether the Rockets are willing to abandon their commitment to Kyle Lowry, whom they were reluctant to trade before the deadline this year. That's an iffy proposition at best, especially considering Lowry's reasonable contract numbers of $5.75MM for next season and $6.21MM for 2013/14. Still, it's not as if Lowry is entrenched as Houston's starter at point guard, having held the job only a year and a half. Lowry is better on the boards, but Dragic has put up better points and assists numbers as a starter, so it may come down to what the Rockets value at the position, as well as Dragic's ability to keep up his torrid play. Lowry recently returned to action and has looked none the worse for wear, so he may soon retake his spot in the lineup. If Dragic stays in front of Lowry during the playoffs, or if Kevin McHale elects to go small and starts both Dragic and Lowry, that may be an indication the Rockets will look to bring him back next year. The Rockets will likely have to choose one or the other, as Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle wrote this week, if they're to continue their pursuit of a superstar.

If the Rockets do want him back, they'll have plenty of competition. He could be an option for teams who miss out on Williams, and he might be a fit for the Blazers, who have plenty of cap room and haven't traditionally signed high-profile free agents like Williams. Regardless of what the Suns do with Steve Nash, they could be inclined to try to bring Dragic back, since he knows coach Alvin Gentry's system. If they retain Nash, though, I wouldn't expect Dragic to want a reunion. Despite their fondness for one another, it's clear that the time has come for Dragic to run a team of his own.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Eric Gordon

April 12th, 2012 at 3:27pm CST by Luke Adams

In theory, a player like Eric Gordon, who has been limited to just five games this season, should be seeing his free agent stock take a huge hit. After missing most of the season with a knee injury, Gordon has also been bothered by back and hip issues recently. For a player who also missed significant time in 2010/11 with a wrist injury, it seems like earning the "injury-prone" label is unavoidable, hurting his leverage in free agency.

However, Gordon is in a unique position as he approaches restricted free agency. Having been the centerpiece of the blockbuster trade that sent him to New Orleans for Chris Paul, Gordon isn't a player the Hornets can simply let walk away without a fight at season's end. The 23-year-old's leverage is strong enough that he reportedly turned down a four-year deal worth about $50MM earlier this season, while he was on the shelf with knee problems.

Gordon's free agency will be perhaps the most fascinating case to watch this offseason. He probably won't receive the most money — Deron Williams figures to receive that honor. But Gordon should draw interest from a number of teams. His hometown Pacers have long been rumored to have interest, and other teams facing possible holes at shooting guard, such as the Celtics, Cavaliers, and Trail Blazers, will have the cap room to make Gordon a big offer, if they so choose.

Gordon is a talented scorer who poured in 22.3 PPG with the Clippers a year ago and figures to only get better, as long as he stays healthy. But he's not a superstar, and his health issues are a genuine cause for concern. I don't think he deserves the sort of four-year, maximum-salary contract that Kevin Love signed with the Timberwolves.

With the league-owned Hornets determined to salvage the Paul trade though, they'd likely be willing to pay close to the max to keep Gordon in a New Orleans uniform for the next few years. The question is whether or not another team will force them to go that high. If you're the Pacers, do you offer Gordon a lucrative four-year deal that could compromise your tremendous cap flexibility? What if the Hornets decide not to match, and you end up locked into a contract in the neighborhood of $14MM annually for a pure scorer who may be an ongoing injury risk?

For Gordon, the other question is whether or not he even wants to play in New Orleans long-term. If he prefers to sign elsewhere, he could simply accept the Hornets' qualifying offer, bet on his health for next season, and then become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2013. That'd be a big risk though, since he'd giving up his current leverage with New Orleans, and another injury or two next year would raise serious red flags.

Although I expect Gordon to ultimately re-sign to a near-max deal with the Hornets, this one could go in a number of different ways. The Pacers still seem to be the most serious threat to New Orleans, but we'll see how this plays out in July.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ersan Ilyasova

April 11th, 2012 at 11:00pm CST by Ryan Raroque

The 2005 NBA draft contained some names considered to be among an intriguing pool of talent at the time: Sean May, the burly and crafty big man who had just won a national title with North Carolina; Julius Hodge, the silky smooth 6'7'' guard out of N.C. State capable of playing both back court positions; Salim Stoudamire, a sweet-shooting off-guard who thrived under the tutelage of legendary coach Lute Olson at Arizona. If you glance at the top 30 selections of that year, you'll find that Yaroslav Korolev, Ike Diogu, and Fran Vazquez were selected in the lottery. All the way at pick number 36 was 17-year-old Turkish forward, Ersan Ilyasova.

Nearly seven years later, Ilyasova is averaging 13.0 PPG and 8.8 RPG while shooting 49.4% from the field and 44.9% from three-point range. The other aforementioned players, all selected before Ersan, are currently not on NBA rosters. Coming off of what will be his most productive NBA season to date, the 6'10'' big man's contract expires this summer and he is looking for a payday. In February, we documented his mindset as it related to his impending free agency:

"It's hard to say where I'll be next season," said the 24-year-old. "It's going to be about the money difference (whether he remains in the NBA or goes overseas). It's always business. I don't want to think about it because I don't want it to affect my game. We'll see what happens."

Ilyasova has started just 36 of the 55 total games he's played this season, and one selling point for an interested team would be to offer a starting role. Milwaukee is also a forward-heavy team having just dealt for Ekpe Udoh, Mike Dunleavy finding a niche in Scott Skiles' rotation, and with Luc Mbah a Moute and Drew Gooden signed through 2014-15. The Bucks own Ilyasova's Bird Rights, so they would be able to retain him for any number up to a max contract. With that being said, unless Milwaukee chooses to break the bank and is willing to deal with a logjam at the forward spot, Ersan could be on his way out.

Last month, we made note that he could be a target for the Nets. I would even say that Dallas could show some interest, as Ilyasova would be a solid consolation addition should they fail in their pursuit of Deron Williams. Regardless of whoever lands him, Ilyasova would be a nice young player who at best is good enough to start. At worst, he has shown he can be a mainstay in a coach's rotation for many years to come.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Steve Novak

April 7th, 2012 at 8:50pm CST by Ryan Raroque

Back in December of 2011, the Knicks were able to pry Tyson Chandler away from the world champion Mavericks after Dallas was unable to make a more lucrative and long-term contract offer to the 7'1'' center. In July, the Knicks could face a similar scenario with sharpshooting forward Steve Novak, who becomes an unrestricted free agent after this season. This is not to imply that Novak's value is equivalent to that of a player such as Chandler or that he undoubtedly deserves to have teams clamoring to outbid each other for his services. However, his performance this season should not go unwarranted nor his impact in free agency be ignored.

In 17.6 MPG off of the bench, Novak averages 8.5 PPG while shooting a league-best 47.9% from three-point range on 5 attempted threes per game. He has hit at least four long-range shots in 13 of his 43 games as a Knick and has had some standout three-point shooting performances this year: 6-for-10 against Portland, 5-for-8 against Utah, 5-for-9 at Toronto, 4-for-5 against Dallas, 5-for-10 against Atlanta, 4-for-5 at Miami, and 4-for-7 at Boston to name a few. At 6'10'' and with a cat-quick release on his shot, Novak could arguably be among the top utility players to hit the free agent market this summer.

I would expect that that the Knicks would do everything in their power to retain their ace-shooter, however history has shown that shooting specialists can get paid handsomely. Kyle Korver, off of his third year as a member of the Utah Jazz, accepted a 3-year, 15 MM offer from the Chicago Bulls after the 2010 season in which he shot 53.6% from deep en route to 7.2 PPG in 18.3 MPG. Just half a season removed from winning the inaugural 3-point shooting competition during All-Star weekend as a member of the Miami Heat, forward Jason Kapono agreed to a four-year, 24 MM offer with the Raptors in 2007. Kapono boasted averages of 10.9 PPG while shooting 51.3% from three with the Heat during the 2006-07 season.

The Knicks, who are only armed with their mid-level exception, bi-annual exception, and the veteran's minimum this summer, will also have to handle the contract statuses of Jeremy Lin, Baron Davis, and Jared Jeffries in addition to Novak. Should New York find itself using most of their mid-level to retain Lin, they may not have enough to entice Novak to stay if he receives a more lucrative offer elsewhere.

Also, if the bi-annual exception maintains its value at around 2.18 MM this summer, other teams who possess the mid-level exception or even the mini-mid level exception of about 3 MM per year (for luxury tax-paying teams) are still in a position financially to make a better offer. Outside shooting will always be in demand in the NBA, so while there may not currently be an explicit list of teams that have Novak on their radar, it will be an intriguing development to follow in July, especially for Knicks fans.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Aaron Brooks

April 3rd, 2012 at 4:53pm CST by Luke Adams

With the fate of the NBA season still up in the air last November, Aaron Brooks agreed to sign with China's Guangdong Southern Tigers. Less than two weeks later, the players and owners reached a tentative deal to resolve the lockout, but Brooks was locked in to his contract in China for the rest of the CBA season. For Brooks, whose team reached the CBA Finals, that season lasted longer than it did for fellow NBA players like Wilson Chandler and J.R. Smith. But after losing to Stephon Marbury's Beijing Ducks in the Finals, Brooks' path has been cleared for a return to NBA.

Because he was a restricted free agent heading into the lockout and offer sheets can't be signed after March 1st, Brooks can only sign with the Suns if he's going to play this year. Phoenix has no interest in signing Brooks for the rest of the season and allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, so unless the point guard agrees to a cap-friendly, multiyear deal, it's unlikely he'll play in the NBA this season. Comments made by Suns GM Lance Blanks on his blog after a recent visit to China also suggest Brooks will sit out the season:

"[Brooks] is eager to get back home to the States, see his family and begin his off season training to prepare himself for a return to NBA."

If Brooks is already beginning his offseason training, we can assume he'll become a restricted free agent again this summer, though perhaps he'll be better positioned than he was a year ago. After a successful 2009/10 campaign in Houston, Brooks took a slight step back last year, spending half the season with Phoenix after a deadline deal. His 10.7 PPG, .375 FG% and 13.1 PER in 2010/11 were all below his career rates entering the season (13.0 PPG, .421 FG%, 14.5 PER).

However, Brooks was impressive during his stint in China, averaging 22.3 points and 4.8 assists in just 29.9 minutes per game, along with shooting rates of .553/.407/.830 (stats via Asia-Basket.com). He's only 27, and he'll hit the free agent market during a year when the draft is light on top point guards. The free agent market features plenty of options, but probably only one true star in Steve Nash.

Brooks' future may ultimately be tied to Nash's. The Suns are expected to make an effort to retain their longtime point guard, but if Nash decides to sign with a team closer to title contention, Phoenix will find itself under more pressure to keep Brooks. If Nash re-signs, the Suns may not want to commit so much free agent money to one position and keep both point guards, but if Nash is gone, I'd expect the team to match any offer sheet for Brooks.

The Hawks, Mavericks, Lakers, Heat, Magic, and Trail Blazers are among the other clubs who could kick the tires on Brooks in the offseason, but between Blanks' visit to China and Brooks' fondness for Phoenix, the Suns are the favorites. I don't expect Brooks to be offered more than the mid-level exception, so Phoenix should have the means to comfortably match any rival offer.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kris Humphries

April 2nd, 2012 at 6:16pm CST by Zachary Links

A little over two years ago, the Nets traded Eduardo Najera – who never quite found his groove in New Jersey thanks to various injuries – to the Mavericks for Kris Humphries and Shawne Williams. While the trade was more about moving the final two-and-a-half years of Najera's contract than making a significant acquisition, Humphries proved to be a pleasant surprise for New Jersey.

Hump gave the Nets the edge they sorely needed on the glass in 2010/11 as Brook Lopez shied away from the paint and this summer he was handsomely rewarded with a one-year, $8MM deal. However, the former 14th overall pick didn't get to put pen-to-paper until just four days prior to the start of the NBA season as the Nets wanted flexibility to be able to pull off a trade with Orlando involving Dwight Howard. Unfortunately for Humphries, he could experience flashbacks to that once again this summer. While he is having another strong season, it seems likely that the Nets will put him on the back-burner once again as they explore a deal for Howard or another mega-star that will make Deron Williams want to join the club in Brooklyn.

Despite the extra attention that he has gotten this year, both on- and off-the-court, Humphries has delivered once again this season, putting up 13.4 PPG and 10.9 RPG. It's not exactly clear who is representing the 27-year-old at the moment but whoever his agent is will likely look to get Humphries a long-term deal. Will the Nets, who are anxious to satiate their star point guard with another "max level" player, commit upwards of $8MM to the big man over three or four years? Maybe not, but it's also possible that the club will be looking at a Deron-less future in July. Hump's blue collar style may not sell out the state-of-the-art Barclays Center, but it would help keep the club competitive during yet another rebuilding phase.

While the Nets may not be ready to prioritize Humphries, there are plenty of clubs that will. The Celtics might be in the market for a power forward if they part ways with Kevin Garnett. Teams such as the Cavaliers, Suns, and Bobcats have money to spend and could all be in the mix depending on what their short- and long-term goals are. Humphries has dominated the front pages of tabloids so far in 2012 but he could transition back over to making headlines in sports sections with a lucrative new contract this summer.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Garnett

March 30th, 2012 at 8:39pm CST by Alex Lee

There has been a lot of talk lately about the impending unrestricted free agent status of Celtics veteran forward Kevin Garnett. Garnett wants to stay, and Doc Rivers expressed interest in bringing him back. So while there is certainly a chance that Garnett is not going anywhere, the 2004 NBA MVP would definitely generate significant interest should he hit the free agent market.

The age of the Celtics roster has been well documented in the media, and Garnett, who turns 36 in May, is obviously part of the reason why. While the Big Ticket is not the franchise centerpiece he once was, he was been able to maintain a consistent level of contribution over the past four years.

Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen teamed up to win the 2008 title in Garnett's first year as a Celtic. Since that season, there seems to be a general sentiment out there that Garnett is declining, but is he? While 2007-2008 may have been his last year as a superstar, his numbers since have been encouragingly consistent. His 2008-2012 points-per-game averages have been 15.9, 14.3, 14.9 and 15.6 while his rebounding averages have been 8.5, 7.3, 8.9, 8.1 respectively. That doesn't look like a decline to me, but at 35-years-old, the cliff has to be approaching.

Garnett is no longer an elite defender, but he is still above average and most importantly, he has stayed relatively healthy (played 69 and 71 games in the last two seasons). His leadership and on-the-court intensity are his signatures. Those aspects to his game will make him very attractive to contenders looking to add a final championship piece or even a younger team on the rise looking to learn how to win. The Nets have apparently already expressed interest. Who else could? The Pacers, 76ers and Mavericks all fit that mold, and could have the cap room to spend depending on what happens with their rosters.

It's hard to predict a price for Garnett because, let's face it, guys like him don't come around very often – he is in his 16th year and has produced at a high level in nearly all of them. The only certainty is that his $21MM+ days are numbered. Tim Duncan, who is also an unrestricted free agent after the season, faces a similar situation in San Antonio. It wouldn't be surprising if they received very similar deals, with one of them setting the market for the other. It all depends how many productive years the buyers think Garnett has left in him. With his consistency in the last four years, he has certainly made that hard to predict.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Andre Miller

March 25th, 2012 at 3:59pm CST by Michael Pina

In this "golden age" of point guard play we're currently witnessing, Andre Miller continues to stay under the radar as one of the most efficient, yet underrated, players in the entire league. Now in his second tenure with the Nuggets, Miller is backing up another point guard (Ty Lawson) for the first time in his career, and despite his team's success playing the two off one another with a change-of-pace strategy, he's expressed unhappiness in the role.

As the highest paid player on Denver's roster, Miller is about to see the three-year, $21MM deal he signed in 2009 come to an end, and it's probable that with Lawson entrenched as the team's starter for the foreseeable future, he'll explore other options come the offseason.

Miller believes he can still start for someone and produce at a high level. At this stage in his career, a team might be gambling should they allow him to do so. Right now the 35-year-old is averaging the second lowest FG% of his 13-year career—in five fewer MPG than last season—but his per-36 minute assist numbers are his second highest. What he continues to offer a Denver team that has one of the league's best benches, is savvy, consistent point guard play and veteran leadership. For younger players, he's invaluable playing the role of mentor, but it doesn't seem like that's something he's interested in doing. If nothing else, Miller is tough, respected, and still able to slow the game down to his own manageable pace.

There don't appear to be any high profile point guards in the upcoming draft, and apart from Deron Williams, Goran Dragic, and Steve Nash, the league's free agency pool appears to be thin as well. If Miller is serious about starting, there are several teams that would love to utilize his services. After this season comes to an end, it wouldn't be surprising to see him end up playing for Charlotte, Indiana, Utah (if they can find another home for Devin Harris and his soon to be expiring contract), or even Portland, the team that unwisely traded him for Raymond Felton last June.

Andre Miller's availability on the market will most likely fall as far under the radar as his on-the-court influence these past 13 years, but there's no denying the fact that he can still play in this league. Whether he chooses to limit a possible destination by insisting he's a still worthy of starting is another story altogether.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Spencer Hawes

March 24th, 2012 at 3:35pm CST by Chuck Myron

When Dwight Howard opted in to the last year of his contract with Orlando last week, the loudest cheer from anyone who’s not a Magic fan probably came from Spencer Hawes. With Howard off the free-agent market, Hawes is now likely the most attractive unrestricted free agent center available this summer.

The 23-year-old University of Washington product has struggled with a strained left Achilles’ tendon this season, which caused him to miss 27 of 28 games before his return last week. When healthy, though, Hawes has been putting up some of his best numbers, posting per-game career highs in rebounds (8.0), assists (2.7) and blocks (1.4) while averaging 10.1 points per game. A 46.6% shooter in his first four seasons, he is making 54% of his shots from the floor this year, and that’s contributed to a PER that’s up to 19.2 from 12.8 last year.

It’s the kind of leap the Kings had in mind when they took him 10th overall in the 2007 draft. When Hawes hadn't sufficiently developed after three years, Sacramento went with DeMarcus Cousins at center instead and traded Hawes to the Sixers. Coach Doug Collins made Hawes a full-time starter for the first time last year, and he signed a one-year $4.05MM qualifying offer from the team as a restricted free agent this past offseason.

He faces competition from restricted free agents Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez and JaVale McGee, but teams going all in on Hawes know there isn’t a chance the Sixers will swoop in to match the offer after the deal is already signed, unlike with the restricted guys. Up-and-coming big men have a long history of getting big contracts and retreating into obscurity, like Jim McIlvaine, Jerome James and Eddy Curry. The Nuggets seemed to quickly get a case of buyer’s remorse on the five-year, $65MM deal they gave to Nene in December, shipping him to the Wizards last week.

Hawes probably isn’t in line for an offer like Nene’s, but he could use DeAndre Jordan’s four-year, $43.04MM contract as a model. Jordan averaged 7.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 1.8 blocks per game in his age-22 season for the Clippers last year before the Warriors signed him to an offer sheet, which the Clippers matched. Hawes has numbers that are similar, if not better, and he could command a deal that’s a little bit more lucrative than Jordan’s. The Sixers, who have $63.5MM committed for next season, would have trouble making that happen unless they moved some money or used their amnesty clause. Other teams in need of a center who don’t want to wait for Howard or don’t feel they could get him could go after Hawes, like the Mavs, Celtics or Raptors. One intriguing possibility is the Blazers, who just cleared a bunch of cap space at the trade deadline, with only $34.9MM now on the books for next year, and are the team closest to his native Seattle.