Free Agent Stock Watch Rumors | Hoops Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Pacific Division

January 11th, 2023 at 10:00am CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Pacific players.

Russell Westbrook, G, Lakers

2022/23: $47,063,478
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

There were concerns about whether Westbrook would accept a more limited role entering the 2022/23 season, given his combativeness and lack of accountability at the end last season’s disastrous campaign. He clearly didn’t respect former head coach Frank Vogel, despite the Lakers winning a title under Vogel in ’19/20.

The ’16/17 league MVP is on the downside of his career at 34 years old, and he’s certainly not going to approach his current salary on an annual basis in free agency. Moving to the bench also hasn’t helped him score more efficiently — his 49.3 true shooting percentage is his lowest mark in 13 years, and very close to a career low (48.9 as a rookie).

So why is his stock up?

His attitude, effort level and effectiveness on defense have changed dramatically under Darvin Ham. He’s also been less of a ball-hog and a more willing passer in ’22/23.

Before the season started, I thought he might be looking at a one-year deal in the $3-7MM range in free agency. Now, I think he could get something like a two-year deal for the standard mid-level exception ($23.3MM), although it is admittedly difficult to come up a list of suitors – his playing style is polarizing.

JaMychal Green, F/C, Warriors

2022/23: $2,628,597
- Note: Green is also earning $5,571,403 from his previous contract with the Thunder.
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Taking into account his full salary following a buyout agreement with the Thunder, Green has earned between $7MM and $8.5MM in five of the past six seasons primarily due to his inside-outside game and ability to rebound at a solid clip.

However, the outside part of his game has been lacking the past two seasons. He shot just 26.6% from deep with the Nuggets in ‘21/22 and is at 26.5% through 28 games this season.

Green is still rebounding well, but he’s turning the ball over more, has always been fairly foul-prone, and will be 33 in June. If the poor outside shooting continues, he’s likely looking at another veteran’s minimum deal in a best-case scenario, because he’s not big enough (6’8″, 227 pounds) to protect the rim as a center and isn’t shooting well enough to be serviceable as a stretch four.

Harrison Barnes, F, Kings

2022/23: $18,352,273
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

Barnes had a very slow start this season, averaging just 9.9 points on a .368/.167/.800 shooting line through nine games. Unsurprisingly, he has rebounded nicely by averaging 15.9 PPG on .505/.378/.818 shooting over the past 30 contests, with only four games below double-digit points.

The 31-year-old doesn’t excel in any one area, but he does a lot of things pretty well, and he also doesn’t have easily exploitable weaknesses. Those types of players tend to be even more valuable in the postseason than the regular season, so Barnes will have a long list of suitors if he reaches free agency.

Barnes is in the last year of a four-year, $85MM contract. Being on the wrong side of 30 hurts a little (he turns 31 in May), but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, so I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to land another deal at similar value.

Thomas Bryant, C, Lakers

2022/23: $2,133,278
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Bryant, 25, has been one of the league’s best bargains this season, producing at a high level offensively while pulling down 11.8 rebounds per 36 minutes on a veteran’s minimum deal. He plays with a lot of energy and enthusiasm, something the Lakers desperately needed.

Given his defensive limitations, I’m not sure you necessarily want him to be a full-time starter – having a solid foundation in the middle is really important. Still, he has shown that he’s over his ACL tear and will certainly command a raise as a free agent – something in the $7-12MM range annually should be within reach.

Dario Saric, F/C, Suns

2022/23: $9,240,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Saric’s current situation is somewhat reminiscent of Bryant’s last season — the reason Bryant got a “prove it” contract for the minimum is that he didn’t quite look fully recovered from his ACL tear. Unless he turns things around in the second half of ‘22/23, that’s likely what Saric will be facing in the offseason as well, because he’s struggled mightily to this point.

Having said that, he’s only 28, and his game isn’t predicated on athleticism, so there’s a chance he could be a nice buy-low candidate in free agency.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division

December 29th, 2022 at 9:01am CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southeast players.

Kyle Kuzma, F, Wizards

2022/23: $13,000,000
2023/24: $13,000,000 player option
Stock: Up

Kuzma has already said he plans to decline his player option and enter free agency, which makes a lot of sense from a financial perspective – he can only earn up to about $70MM over four years in an extension.

Through 35 games (35.4 minutes), the six-year veteran is averaging 21.6 points (a career high), 7.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists on .466/.341/.703 shooting (.560 true shooting percentage).

The 27-year-old’s TS% is actually below league average (.577, the highest in NBA history), but he offers three-level scoring and an interesting blend of versatility on both sides of the ball. He should see a significant raise on his $13MM deal starting next season.

Justin Holiday, G/F, Hawks

2022/23: $6,292,440
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

It’s a rare and impressive accomplishment for an undrafted player to last 10 NBA seasons, but the eldest of the three Holiday brothers has now joined that group, having found a nice niche as a 3-and-D wing from 2016-2021.

Holiday has earned between $4.3MM and $6.3MM each of the past six seasons, but his role and production have been limited in ‘22/23. He’s averaging just 15.4 minutes per contest and 4.7 points through 26 games, while recording his lowest 3PT% (.345) since ’15/16.

Perhaps more concerning is the fact that Holiday’s defense isn’t what it used to be, and he’ll be 34 in April, so there’s little reason to believe that will turn around. At this point, he’s looking like a one-year, veteran’s minimum type in free agency – assuming he finds a team.

Will Barton, G/F, Wizards

2022/23: $14,375,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

Similar to Holiday, playing 11 seasons as a former second-round pick (40th in 2012) is certainly an impressive achievement for Barton. He entered the league as a raw prospect, but flourished when he was traded from Portland to Denver, averaging 14.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game on .438/.362/.789 shooting over seven-plus seasons.

Unfortunately, injuries have sapped Barton’s athleticism in recent years, and he was never a great defensive player. That – along with being traded to the Wizards in the offseason – has been detrimental to his career. He’s producing at his lowest level since his Trail Blazer days, averaging just 8.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.7 assists per game on .371/.370/.800 shooting (.486 TS%) through 31 contests (22.3 minutes).

Barton will have earned more than $80MM in his career once this season is over, but he’s clearly on the tail end of things, and is probably looking at a veteran’s minimum contract in the offseason.

Nick Richards, C, Hornets

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

The 42nd pick of the 2020 draft, Richards rarely saw the court in his first two seasons, averaging just 6.3 minutes across 68 games. Suffice it to say, external expectations were not high for the 7’0” center entering ‘22/23.

The fact that he has been one of the most productive backup centers in the league this season – he’s averaging 9.0 points and 6.4 rebounds in 33 games (18.8 minutes) – has been a pleasant surprise to say the least. The 9-26 Hornets currently hold the second-worst record in the league, but Richards has been a bright spot.

The 25-year-old will be a restricted free agent in the offseason and should garner a nice raise on his current minimum-salary deal.

(As an aside, I have no idea why Mason Plumlee continues to see the majority of minutes in the middle over Richards and first-rounder Mark Williams. Plumlee turns 33 in March, will be an unrestricted free agent, is a negative on defense, and Charlotte clearly isn’t going anywhere. Very odd situation for one of the league’s most perplexing teams.)

P.J. Washington, F/C, Hornets

2022/23: $5,808,435
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Down

Washington has several desirable traits – he can play both frontcourt positions (though he has played almost exclusively power forward this season), he’s a decent defender, he holds a career 3PT% of .368, he can leverage the threat of his outside shot to pump-and-drive, and he can post up smaller players, particularly favoring a mini-hook shot down low.

The former lottery pick will turn 25 in the offseason, so he’s theoretically still on the upside of his career, and he’s posting a career-best 14.8 points through 34 games in ‘22/23. So why is his stock down to this point?

Well, down is relative. I thought Washington could get a deal in the four-year, $60-70MM range on a rookie scale extension before the season started, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he still does, but it won’t be because he’s having a strong contract year. Despite playing a career-high 31.8 minutes per contest, he’s averaging a career-low 4.9 rebounds, his defense has regressed a little to my eyes, and his efficiency has plummeted. He has posted .416/.337/.798 shooting splits for a .519 TS%, after registering a career-high .588 TS% in ‘21/22.

Playing without the team’s best passers for much of the season hasn’t helped, and there’s plenty of time for Washington to turn things around with a strong second half. Still, his stock has definitely dipped since October.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

December 20th, 2022 at 1:44pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.

Jerami Grant, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $20,955,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Grant has proven to be a nice fit in Portland, providing efficient frontcourt scoring (.613 true shooting percentage) for the team’s seventh-ranked offense. He can score in a variety of ways and is one of the team’s better defenders, though the Blazers have fallen off considerably on that end – they’re down to 23^rd in defensive rating with a net rating barely above water (+0.4).

Grant will turn 29 in March and is in line for a big payday on his next contract. For what it’s worth, Portland would be limited during the season to offering a four-year, $112.65MM extension, so if he thinks he can get more than that, he’ll have to wait until free agency.

Bruce Brown, G/F, Nuggets

2022/23: $6,479,000
2023/24: $6,802,950 player option
Stock: Up

I was surprised Brown’s free agency foray last offseason wasn’t more lucrative after a strong postseason showing with the Nets – he ended up signing a two-year deal with Denver for the taxpayer mid-level exception. It was rumored that he had higher offers and liked the fit with the Nuggets.

Either way, he has been a valuable and consistent role player alongside reigning back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic. The versatile Brown is averaging 11.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.3 APG and 1.0 SPG on a rock-solid .492/.413/.800 (.584 TS%) shooting line through 29 games (30.2 MPG).

In addition to being head coach Michael Malone’s go-to replacement starter across multiple positions (he’s up to 17 starts), Brown is attempting – and converting – more three-pointers than ever before, up to 1.3 makes and 3.2 attempts per game, from previous career highs of 0.6 and 1.7, respectively. He has been a relative bargain thus far, but the problem for the Nuggets is if he opts out, they’ll only have his Non-Bird rights, so they’ll be limited to offering him 120% of his current contract – a deal would start at $7.8MM in 2023/24, only a $1MM raise on his player option.

If he opts out, I think Brown could at least land a deal for the non-taxpayer mid-level in free agency, which is projected to be worth $48.9MM over four years. If Denver is where he really wants to be, another option would be picking up his option and then re-signing once the Nuggets have his Early Bird rights after ’23/24 – Nicolas Batum and Bobby Portis took that route in recent years with the Clippers and Bucks, respectively.

Bryn Forbes, G, Timberwolves

2022/23: Minimum salary
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

In five consecutive seasons from 2017-22, Forbes knocked down at least 38.8% of his three-point attempts, and he owns a career rate of 41.3%. However, he has struggled this season in his rare opportunities to play, converting just 25.8% of his looks beyond the arc in 17 games (10.6 MPG).

That’s a major problem for the undersized shooting guard, because his value is almost entirely tied to his ability to make shots — he’s limited in every other area, particularly defensively. The Wolves need shooting – they’re 22^nd in 3PT% – so the fact that he hasn’t been playing obviously means head coach Chris Finch doesn’t trust him over other options. For players on minimum deals, one down season could mean they’re on the last legs of their NBA careers.

Justise Winslow, F, Trail Blazers

2022/23: $4,097,561
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Neutral

After dealing with several significant injuries in his eight-year career, Winslow has been relatively healthy thus far for Portland, appearing in 28 of 31 games. You would think that alone would help his stock, but he hasn’t really shown anything different than he’s done in prior seasons from a production standpoint.

Winslow is energetic, strong, a solid rebounder, an above-average play-maker and a solid defender across multiple positions, all desirable traits. He can grab a rebound and start a fast break, or initiate the offense in a half-court setting, acting as a point forward of sorts.

However, he’s very limited as a scorer – his .415/.310/.714 (.470 TS%) shooting line is very close to his career mark – so it’s hard to envision his market being robust, despite his positive attributes.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G/F, Jazz

2022/23: $5,009,633
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Up

The No. 17 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Alexander-Walker had a very inconsistent first three seasons. He was traded twice right before last season’s deadline, going from New Orleans to Portland to Utah, and rarely saw the court with the Jazz.

His spot in the rotation is still tenuous – he has appeared in 22 of 33 games for an average of 15.3 minutes per night. Virtually all of his counting stats are similar to his career averages. So why is his stock up?

The answer is simple: he’s posting a .491/.433/.727 (.623 TS%) shooting line and has played key defense at the end of multiple close games. Less simple is the question of whether the Jazz will be inclined give him a $7,073,602 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent – it’s too early to make that call, but if I had to guess, I’d bet they wouldn’t right now.

Still, if he keeps shooting anything close to what he has early on, he’ll likely find a multiyear contract for more than the minimum, which definitely wasn’t a lock entering ‘22/23.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

March 30th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.

Jalen Brunson, G, Mavericks

2021/22: Minimum salary
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

Brunson will never be considered the Mavericks’ best pick in the 2018 draft – that honor belongs to backcourt partner Luka Doncic – but he has become one of that draft’s best values. Selected 33rd overall, Brunson has gradually taken on a larger role in Dallas and is enjoying the best year of his career in 2021/22, averaging 16.2 PPG, 4.9 APG, and 3.8 RPG on .498/.368/.845 shooting in 73 games (32.0 MPG).

Brunson’s four-year, $6.1MM rookie contract was a great deal for the Mavs, but they’ll have to give him a massive raise if they want to keep him. Because he’s a second-rounder who signed for four years, the 25-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent this summer rather than restricted. That should give him more leverage in contract negotiations, as should the interest he’s reportedly receiving from the Knicks and Pistons.

The rumored asking price for Brunson’s next deal is $80MM for four years, which seems within reach — other guards like Fred VanVleet, Lonzo Ball, and Malcolm Brogdon have signed similar contracts in recent years, and Brunson’s representatives can make a case that his résumé matches up favorably with what those players had accomplished when they finalized their respective deals.

Dennis Schröder, G, Rockets

2021/22: $5.89MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

Schröder’s stock has yo-yo’d up and down drastically in the last two seasons. After famously turning down an extension offer worth a reported $80MM+ from the Lakers, Schröder settled for a one-year, $5.9MM deal with Boston in free agency. He outperformed that contract early in the season, prompting some discussion about how the Celtics – who would have only held his Non-Bird rights at season’s end – wouldn’t be able to afford to bring him back.

However, Schröder eventually fell back down to earth and became a trade chip for the C’s, who sent him to Houston. Initially viewed as a possible buyout candidate for the lottery-bound Rockets, the veteran guard earned some early praise for his impact on the team’s young guards. But Schröder’s overall numbers in 15 games in Houston, including a .393 FG% and a .328 3PT%, probably won’t convince offseason suitors that he deserves a raise on his 2022/23 salary.

Lonnie Walker, G/F, Spurs

2021/22: $4.45MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

After a promising 2020/21 campaign in which he averaged a career-high 11.2 PPG in 60 games (25.4 MPG), Walker got off to a dismal start this season, shooting just 38.5% from the field and 29.3% on threes through his first 51 games (22.5 MPG).

He has played far better since the trade deadline, putting up 18.7 PPG on .471/.388/.667 shooting in 13 appearances (27.2 MPG) before he went down with a back injury on March 18. Having rejuvenated his value as he nears free agency, Walker is set to return from that back issue on Wednesday.

The Spurs have been better with Walker off the court than on it, and his overall numbers this season still aren’t great, but he looks like a much safer bet to receive a $6.3MM qualifying offer (making him a restricted free agent) than he did two months ago.

Kyle Anderson, F, Grizzlies

2021/22: $9.94MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

Anderson’s stock has dipped a little this year, but that’s in large part due to how good he was in 2020/21, when he posted a career-best 12.4 PPG and 3.6 APG and established himself as a legitimate three-point threat for the first time (36.0% on 3.8 attempts per game).

Those numbers are all down this year (7.4 PPG, 2.6 APG, .323 3PT%) as Anderson has moved to the bench and seen his minutes cut back. The Grizzlies’ overall success, including a 53-23 record, works in Anderson’s favor, but his +3.2 net rating is among the worst on the team.

While Anderson is still a versatile defender who provides some value on the wing, teams interested in him this summer will probably view last season’s increased offensive output as an aberration rather than a sign of things to come on that end of the floor.

Tony Snell, G/F, Pelicans

2021/22: Minimum salary
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

The only player on the Pelicans’ 15-man roster who doesn’t have a contract for next season, Snell was a throw-in the CJ McCollum trade last month. He had a few solid games after arriving in New Orleans, but has since fallen out of the rotation and probably isn’t part of the team’s plans beyond this season.

Snell signed a minimum-salary contract last summer with Portland following a season in which he made 56.9% of his three-point attempts. With that number down to 35.3% in 2021/22, another minimum-salary deal is probably a best-case scenario for him this offseason.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Central Division

March 18th, 2022 at 1:52pm CST by Luke Adams

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Central players.

Zach LaVine, G, Bulls

2021/22: $19.5MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

LaVine is dealing with a knee injury that has diminished his explosiveness, but it hasn’t slowed him down too significantly — he hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points in a game since the All-Star break, and he’s coming off a 33-point showing in Utah on Wednesday.

While the injury is a short-term concern that may need to be addressed surgically in the summer, there’s no reason to believe at this point that it will be a nagging issue in future seasons. LaVine is still significantly outperforming his current contract and is in line for a maximum-salary deal this summer, likely with the Bulls.

Collin Sexton, G, Cavaliers

2021/22: $6.35MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

Sexton is also dealing with a knee injury, but it’s more serious than LaVine’s. The Cavaliers guard appeared in only 11 games before meniscus surgery sidelined him for the remainder of the season.

The fact that Sexton averaged 24.3 PPG with an efficient .475/.371/.815 shooting line in 2020/21 shouldn’t be overlooked, but there are a number of factors working against him. With Darius Garland and Caris LeVert under contract for next season and Sexton entering restricted free agency in an offseason when few teams will have cap room, the Cavs will have plenty of leverage in negotiations. Concerns about Sexton’s knee and his defense may further limit his ability to secure a significant raise.

An eight-figure annual salary is still certainly within reach for Sexton, but a payday in the $80-100MM range no longer looks like a good bet.

Bobby Portis, F/C, Bucks

2021/22: $4.35MM
2022/23: $4.56MM player option
Stock: Up ⬆️

Portis raised some eyebrows when he settled for a two-year, $9MM deal with the Bucks in 2021, giving the club a “hometown” discount after winning a title in Milwaukee. That agreement included a second-year player option, so Portis has the opportunity to revisit the open market in 2022. At this point, it’s hard to imagine he won’t take advantage of that opportunity.

With Brook Lopez out for much of the season, Portis has been thrust into a larger frontcourt role and has responded with a career year, averaging 15.3 PPG and 9.1 RPG on .484/.405/.752 shooting in 61 games (28.9 MPG). He’ll have Early Bird rights this time around, putting him in a better spot to get a raise from the Bucks, who shouldn’t expect the 27-year-old to once again accept a team-friendly rate.

Cory Joseph, G, Pistons

2021/22: $4.91MM
2022/23: $5.16MM player option
Stock: Up ⬆️

The Pistons have been one of the NBA’s worst teams since the start of the season, and any national attention they’ve gotten has focused primarily on Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, and the rest of their young core. Their 30-year-old journeyman point guard shouldn’t be overlooked though — Joseph is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career in Detroit this season, averaging 8.1 PPG and 3.8 APG with a career-best .423 3PT% in 59 games (24.8 MPG).

Joseph may be happy with the Pistons and not interested in seeking a change of scenery. But if he decides to opt out this summer, he should certainly be able to earn a raise, perhaps from a team much closer to title contention.

T.J. Warren, F, Pacers

2021/22: $12.69MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

Having officially been ruled out for the rest of 2021/22, Warren will enter unrestricted free agency having played just four games in the last two seasons due to foot injuries. It’s been an unfortunate run for the veteran forward, who had a great 2019/20 season and looked like one of the NBA’s very best scorers in the Walt Disney World bubble that summer.

What Warren has gone through is reminiscent of what happened to another former Pacer, Victor Oladipo, following his breakout years in Indiana. Oladipo battled leg injuries for two seasons and ultimately settled for a minimum-salary contract when he became a free agent.

Unlike Oladipo last year, Warren should be healthy when he reaches the open market this summer. But given how little teams have seen from him over the last two years, he may not be able to do a whole lot better than the minimum deal Oladipo got.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

March 14th, 2022 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Northwest players.

Jusuf Nurkic, C, Trail Blazers

2021/22: $12MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

A lengthy injury absence preceding a player’s free agency typically doesn’t help that player’s stock, but Nurkic’s value is on the rise despite the case of plantar fasciitis that will sideline him for at least four weeks and could end his season.

Prior to his injury, the veteran center was playing his best basketball of the season during a four-game winning streak (21.5 PPG, 14.0 RPG, and 4.3 APG). As a result, it’s safe to assume shutting him down was more about keeping the Blazers’ tanking efforts on track than it was about any long-term health concerns. After all, Portland has had essentially a neutral net rating (-0.1) during Nurkic’s minutes this season, compared to a -11.7 mark when he’s not on the court.

Nurkic looks like a good bet to get a new contract worth at least the $12MM per year he’s currently making — and likely more than that.

Derrick Favors, C, Thunder

2021/22: $9.72MM
2022/23: $10.18MM player option
Stock: Down ⬇️

Favors’ per-minute production hasn’t declined significantly during the last two seasons, but his 15.3 minutes per game in 2020/21 and his 16.7 MPG this season are the two lowest marks of his career. Injuries and DNP-CDs have also limited him to just 39 games so far in ’21/22.

At age 30, Favors should still have plenty left in the tank, and he could reverse the trend of his declining playing time if he ends up in the right situation next season. But he won’t get a contract offer on the open market that exceeds the value of his player option ($10.18MM). I’d expect him to opt in and then try to work with the Thunder on a trade or buyout.

Danuel House, F, Jazz

2021/22: Minimum salary
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

Once a key three-and-D rotation player in Houston, House saw his numbers dip in 2020/21 and slide even further to start this season, leading to his release. It took him a little time to find a permanent new home following a 10-day deal with the Knicks, but he has hit his stride again in Utah, averaging 6.7 PPG with an impressive .453 3PT% in 18 games (18.8 MPG).

House isn’t the type of player who is a threat to go off for 30 points on a given night (his career high is 23), but his ability to knock down three-pointers and defend multiple positions could be very important for a Utah team hoping to make a deep playoff run. A strong postseason showing would further boost House’s stock entering the summer.

Josh Okogie, G/F, Timberwolves

2021/22: $4.09MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

Okogie has received praise from head coach Chris Finch for his leadership and his attitude, but the former first-round pick is no longer part of the Timberwolves’ regular rotation, having logged just 48 minutes across seven games since the start of February. He has some value on defense, but doesn’t provide enough on offense to warrant consistent minutes.

While Minnesota can technically make Okogie a restricted free agent this offseason, doing so would require a $5.86MM qualifying offer — I expect the team to pass on that QO, letting Okogie become an unrestricted FA.

Jeff Green, F, Nuggets

2021/22: $4.5MM
2022/23: $4.5MM player option
Stock: Up ⬆️

After years of settling for minimum-salary contracts, Green earned a two-year, $9MM commitment from the Nuggets last summer. The veteran forward will turn 36 years old later this year, so he initially seemed like a safe bet to pick up his $4.5MM option for 2022/23. But that’s no longer a given, based on the way he has performed this season.

Stepping into a larger role than anticipated due to Michael Porter Jr.‘s extended absence (and, to a lesser extent, Vlatko Cancar‘s season-ending foot injury), Green has averaged nearly 25 minutes per game in 63 appearances (51 starts) for Denver, scoring 10.5 PPG on 51.4% shooting.

While he has struggled from beyond the three-point line (30.1%), Green has been a crucial contributor this season for a Nuggets team trying to survive without two of its top scorers (Porter and Jamal Murray). It might be enough to justify an offseason opt-out — if he finishes the season strong, Green could potentially land one more multiyear deal.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division

March 7th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southeast players.

P.J. Tucker, F, Heat

2021/22: $7MM
2022/23: $7.35MM player option
Stock: Up ⬆️

Tucker will turn 37 years old in May, and there aren’t many non-stars in the NBA who could realistically turn down a $7.35MM guarantee at that age. Tucker might be in position to do so though. He has been everything the Heat hoped for this season, starting 56 games, playing stellar defense, and knocking down a career-high 44.9% of his three-point attempts. If that performance carries over to the postseason and he plays a key role in a deep playoff run, Tucker could realistically command one more multiyear contract this summer.

Mohamed Bamba, C, Magic

2021/22: $7.57MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

Entering 2021/22, Bamba was facing a make-or-break year. He had battled injuries and failed to take major steps forward in his first three seasons after being drafted sixth overall in 2018. If this season had resembled his first three, he would’ve been hard-pressed to find more than a minimum-salary deal during his upcoming free agency.

Bamba has responded to the challenge, starting 52 games so far for a rebuilding Magic team and establishing new career highs in PPG (10.2), RPG (7.9), BPG (1.8), and MPG (26.1), among other categories. While he hasn’t yet reached the level that some envisioned when he was drafted, his ability to protect the rim and hit the occasional three-pointer (34.5% on 3.6 attempts per game) should make him a popular target for teams in need of a center this offseason.

Bamba will be a restricted free agent if Orlando extends him a $10.1MM qualifying offer. I expect the Magic will do so unless they don’t see Bamba as part of their future.

Thomas Bryant, C, Wizards

2021/22: $8.67MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

Bryant hasn’t been bad since returning to action following his recovery from a torn ACL, but he hasn’t been the same player he was prior to the injury in 2019-21, when he averaged 13.4 PPG and 7.0 RPG with a .411 3PT%.

The Wizards have a -11.7 net rating when Bryant plays this season, compared to a -1.2 mark when he doesn’t. And there’s no guarantee he’ll see consistent minutes the rest of the way if Kristaps Porzingis stays healthy — Bryant was a DNP-CD in Porzingis’ Wizards debut on Sunday.

Gorgui Dieng, F/C, Hawks

2021/22: $4MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️

The Hawks presumably envisioned Dieng being a regular part of the frontcourt rotation when they used part of their mid-level exception to sign him last summer. And for a while, he was.

Dieng played in 28 of Atlanta’s first 33 games, but following a stint in the health and safety protocols and the emergence of Onyeka Okongwu, his role has all but disappeared. Dieng has only appeared in 12 of the team’s last 30 games, logging more than eight minutes just three times during that stretch. At this point, it’s hard to imagine the 32-year-old getting another offer above the minimum this summer.

Cody Martin, G/F, Hornets

2021/22: $1.78MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Up ⬆️

Cody’s twin brother Caleb Martin has gotten more press for his breakout year in Miami, but Cody has also taken his game to another level this season. He has averaged career highs virtually across the board, putting up 8.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.3 SPG and a .465/.406/.692 shooting line while playing an important role in Charlotte’s rotation.

While he’s probably not in line for a massive payday, Cody has assured himself of a qualifying offer (it’ll likely be worth $2.23MM) and should have some leverage to negotiate a multiyear deal with the Hornets, who won’t want to lose him in unrestricted free agency in 2023.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Playoff Edition

June 17th, 2021 at 7:02pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. With the playoffs in full swing, we take a look at players on teams still alive in the postseason:

Lou Williams, Hawks, 34, PG/SG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $24MM deal in 2018

When the Clippers and Hawks swapped veteran point guards at the trade deadline, the general consensus was that Los Angeles pulled off a coup landing Rajon Rondo. It doesn’t look that way right now. Rondo has only played nine minutes in the last four games against Utah, while Williams had 15 points, three assists and two steals in 23 minutes during Atlanta’s dramatic Game 5 comeback at Philadelphia on Wednesday.

Williams may not possess Rondo’s leadership qualities, but he’s been instant offense for many seasons wherever he’s played. The 34-year-old has been in the league since 2005 but he can stick around a few more seasons due to his offensive prowess.

Jeff Green, Nets, 34, PF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.56MM deal in 2020

It’s amazing to think that the Jazz had no use for Green midway through last season and put him on waivers. The Rockets scooped him up and he was highly productive. He’s doing the same thing for the Nets. After a solid regular season, Green battled a foot injury that sidelined him for six postseason games. Back in action, Green delivered a monster performance in Game 5 against Milwaukee, firing in 27 points while draining 7-of-8 3-point attempts. Green won’t have any trouble finding work as an unrestricted free agent this summer, whether he re-signs with Brooklyn or joins another contender.

Reggie Jackson, Clippers, 31, PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.33MM deal in 2020

A TNT broadcaster called Jackson “Mr. June” as he made several clutch baskets in Game 5 at Utah on Wednesday. He’s not on the level of baseball’s “Mr. October” but this Reggie Jackson is proving to be a consistent playoff performer for the Clippers. He averaged 15.4 PPG against Dallas in the opening round, including a 25-point outing in Game 6. He scored 29 points in Game 2 and 22 in Game 5 against the Jazz. Jackson has also kept his turnovers down to a minimum. After having to settle for the veteran’s minimum in free agency last year, he’s due for a substantial raise when he enters the market again this summer.

Mike Conley, Jazz, 33, PG (Down) – Signed to a five-year, $152.6MM deal in 2016

Conley finally got his first taste of the All-Star Game this season. He got off to an impressive start in these playoffs, scoring 20 or more points in the first three games against Memphis. The injury bug soon bit him as Utah closed out the series and he’s been sidelined with a hamstring strain throughout the second round. That’s the main concern with Conley as he enters unrestricted free agency – he’s had numerous leg injuries in recent seasons. That could limit the amount of years teams will be willing to offer him.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Western Conference

June 11th, 2021 at 7:29pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. With the playoffs in full swing, we take a look at players from the Western Conference:

Andre Drummond, Lakers, 27, C (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $794K deal in 2021

Drummond had a golden opportunity to show he could perform in the biggest moments. He was reportedly promised a starting spot by the Lakers after he reached a buyout agreement with Cleveland and cleared waivers. Drummond withered in the spotlight and was benched for Game 6 of the first-round series with Phoenix.

Coach Frank Vogel lavished praise on Drummond after the season, saying “We’re hopeful that he’s a Laker for a long time.” That seems like a long shot, considering how the postseason played out.

The two-time All-Star is still only 27 but his status has fallen dramatically over the past two seasons. He might be fortunate to receive the mid-level from a team seeking an elite rebounder.

Serge Ibaka, Clippers, 31, PF/C (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $19MM deal in 2020

Ibaka said last month he’s been dealing with back pain all season caused by a pinched nerve. It continued to hamper him to the point where he underwent back surgery on Thursday. He only appeared in 41 games during the regular season and had been limited to two postseason games.

Several contenders were interested in Ibaka during free agency last year due to his postseason track record. He was considered the Clippers’ most important addition during the offseason but now they’ll have to strive for a championship without one of their top frontcourt players. Ibaka holds a $9.72MM option on his contract for next season and it’s a safe bet he’ll take the guaranteed money.

Langston Galloway, Suns, 29, SG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2020

Galloway signed a one-year contract for the veteran’s minimum to join an improving team seeking a second-unit shooter. He was Detroit’s top reserve a season ago but the opportunities haven’t been there in Phoenix. He only saw action in 40 games during the regular season and has made two cameos in the playoffs. The Suns have gone with a three-man rotation in the backcourt – Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Cameron Payne – rendering Galloway as a spectator. Galloway will likely have to settle for a similar contract next season from a team that promises to give him more playing time.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Mavericks, 29, SG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $71MM deal in 2017

The Mavericks need to improve their supporting cast around Luka Doncic but they don’t want to lose Hardaway. Despite his Game 7 clunker (11 points, 1-for-9 on threes), Hardaway and Dorian Finney-Smith were the team’s most impactful players besides Doncic during the first-round series against the Clippers.

The Mavericks have made re-signing Hardaway a high priority. They’ll have some competition for his services and they to be cognizant of weighing down their future cap with enigmatic Kristaps Porzingis on the books for three more seasons (including a player option). But Hardaway is in a good spot to get another lucrative multiyear deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Eastern Conference

June 5th, 2021 at 3:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. With the playoffs in full swing, we take a look at players from the Eastern Conference:

Elfrid Payton, Knicks, 27, PG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $4.77MM deal in 2020

Payton’s postseason role was reduced to something rarely seen in any sport – the starting lineup cameo. He played a few ineffective minutes, then never returned to the court for two games until coach Tom Thibodeau completely gave up on him. Payton started regularly all season but his post-All-Star break woes drove Knicks fans nuts. They won’t have to worry about a repeat – Payton will be an unrestricted free agent. Payton has been a starter throughout his career but it’s hard to imagine him getting much more than the veteran’s minimum to fill out someone’s bench next season.

Evan Fournier, Celtics, 28, SF (Down) – Signed to a five-year, $85MM deal in 2016

Fournier was the biggest acquisition the Celtics made at the trade deadline and they leaned on him heavily against the Nets with Jaylen Brown sidelined. Fournier averaged 15.4 PPG on 43.3% shooting from 3-point range in 33.4 MPG. Solid numbers, but he’s not the type of player who can carry a team. Fournier is expected to seek a contract similar to the one he signed with the Magic five seasons ago but is he really a $17MM a year player? There’s a general sense that Fournier may have to settle for the mid-level exception or something slightly above that figure.

Duncan Robinson, Heat, 27, SF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3MM deal in 2018

Robinson pumped in 24 points in Game 1 against the Bucks, then petered out the rest of the series. That won’t hurt him in restricted free agency. The Heat have to make a lot of tough decisions this offseason – one of them will be how big an offer sheet they’d be willing to match to retain Robinson. First, they’ll have to extend a $4.7MM qualifying offer but that’s a formality. During last season’s playoff run to the Finals, Robinson averaged 11.7 PPG. He’s a career 42.3% 3-point shooter and he’ll be looking for a big payday after playing on a rookie contract.

Alex Len, Wizards, 27, C (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $1.7MM deal in 2020

Len has passed through a handful of organizations over the past four seasons. He’ll be on the move again as an unrestricted free agent. Len received 40 regular-season starts from the injury-depleted Wizards after getting waived by the Raptors. His playing time shrunk throughout the first-round series against Philadelphia – he played a grand total of three minutes in the last two games. Whether or not Thomas Bryant can effectively return from his knee injury next season, Washington needs to upgrade its frontcourt. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Ukranian-born Len explores European options.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.