- Warriors coach Steve Kerr appreciates the way his team persevered through injuries and finished strong, according to Nick Friedell of ESPN. “When you go five straight years of ‘win the championship or bust,’ it’s incredibly stressful,” Kerr said. “It’s exciting and you wouldn’t want it any other way, but it adds up. And so I think this year has been refreshing in a lot of ways. It’s been a really meaningful season for our franchise in a lot of ways and that’s important.”
On Monday, we asked for your predictions for the first two Eastern Conference play-in games, and you’ll have until tonight to place your votes on those two contests. In the meantime though, we want to give you plenty of time to make your predictions for Wednesday’s play-in games too, so we’re shifting our focus to the Western Conference today.
Here are the two Western play-in games scheduled for Wednesday:
San Antonio Spurs (10) at Memphis Grizzlies (9)
The Spurs are in the midst of an interesting transition period, having parted ways with longtime standout LaMarcus Aldridge this season as youngsters like Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, and Lonnie Walker took on larger roles. DeMar DeRozan remained the team’s offensive engine, but he’s in a contract year and may be playing his final games as a Spur.
The Spurs are missing starting guard Derrick White and backed their way into a play-in spot, having lost 10 of their last 12 games. However, a team led by Gregg Popovich shouldn’t be ruled out, even if San Antonio will enter this game as an underdog.
The Grizzlies, meanwhile, exceeded expectations this season despite playing without Jaren Jackson Jr. for most of the year. Ja Morant, the team’s top scorer, has led the way, but Memphis is getting impressive contributions from the likes of Jonas Valanciunas, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Desmond Bane, among others.
The Grizzlies were also on a five-game winning streak before losing its regular season finale to Golden State and might have a little more momentum than the Spurs entering the play-in. This is a young team, but it’s a relatively healthy one and has shown over the last two years that it can compete in big games.
The winner of this game will advance and play on Friday for the No. 8 seed, while the loser will be eliminated from postseason contention.
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote on Grizzlies/Spurs.
Golden State Warriors (8) at Los Angeles Lakers (7)
By far the most compelling matchup of any of the first play-in games, this battle for the No. 7 seed will pit LeBron James and Anthony Davis against Stephen Curry and Draymond Green for the right to face the Suns in round one.
On paper, the defending-champion Lakers look like the obvious pick here, with James and Davis back in the lineup and the team on a five-game winning streak entering the play-in tournament. The Lakers will have home-court advantage and will be motivated to take care of business on Wednesday in order to get some rest before the first round begins. Betting sites, including BetOnline.ag, list them as the biggest favorite of the four play-in hosts.
But James and Davis only recently returned from lengthy injury absences and neither superstar has looked 100% healthy as of late. If James tweaks his ankle again or Davis’ back acts up, the Lakers’ margin of error will shrink significantly, opening the door for the Warriors to pull off the upset.
Even a healthy Lakers team could be in trouble if Curry catches fire. The NBA’s leading scorer has been playing some of the best basketball over the last two months, averaging an eye-popping 37.1 points on .493/.436/.896 shooting in 22 games since early April, despite being the focal point of every opposing defense. Preventing Curry from heating up beyond the arc will be crucial if the Lakers want to secure a win.
While the winner of this game locks up the No. 7 seed in the West, the loser will host the Grizzlies/Spurs winner on Friday for the right to earn the No. 8 seed.
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote on Lakers/Warriors.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
While Nikola Jokic is considered the odds-on favorite to win this season’s NBA MVP award, Lakers forward LeBron James has endorsed a division rival for the honor, telling reporters on Sunday night that Warriors guard Stephen Curry would get his vote.
“I mean, just look at what he’s done this year,” James said of the NBA’s leading scorer (link via Dave McMenamin of ESPN). “I don’t know anything else if you’re looking for an MVP. If Steph is not on Golden State’s team, what are we looking at? … We get caught up in the records sometimes. We get caught up in the, ‘OK, who has the best record?’ instead of just saying who had the best season that year. And Steph has had, in my opinion, the best season all year.”
Curry has won two MVP awards, but his performance this season may have been his most impressive yet, considering the Warriors didn’t have high-scoring options like Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant available to draw attention away from him. Despite facing double-teams and traps for much of the season, Curry averaged a career-best 32.0 points per game on .482/.421/.916 shooting in 63 games (34.2 MPG). His 5.3 three-pointers per game also represented a new career high.
Here’s more from around the Pacific:
- Bill Shea of The Athletic explores what life after basketball might look like for LeBron James, who will turn 37 later this year. The Lakers star, who has already ventured into the media and business worlds during his playing career, also aims to one day own an NBA franchise.
- After expressing last week that he was “very confident” about keeping his job as the Kings‘ head coach, Luke Walton explained on Sunday why he’s not worried, as Jason Anderson of The Sacramento Bee relays. “It doesn’t weigh on me because it’s the same thing I always talk about — it’s control what you can control — the same message I give my players every day,” Walton said. He added that he felt the story of Sacramento’s season should be the growth of the team’s young players. “I’m excited about this group and excited about our future,” the Kings’ coach said.
- Having returned on Friday after missing two months due to a back injury, Clippers big man Serge Ibaka told reporters that he has played with back pain since the start of the season, per Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN (Twitter link). It’s a nerve issue, according to Ibaka, who admitted he’s still not back to 100%.
Warriors forward Kelly Oubre Jr. will miss the next seven-to-10 days of on-court action as he continues to recover from a small avulsion fracture and ligament tear in his left wrist, the team announced today (via Twitter). The injury has kept him sidelined for the past nine games.
Golden State will re-assess Oubre’s wrist in the next seven-to-10 days, so there is a distinct possibility he would be available should the team advance to the first round of the playoffs.
As Kendra Andrews of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets, this update means Oubre will miss the team’s first play-in tournament appearance. Depending on the outcome of today’s season finale against the Grizzlies, the Warriors will either finish as the No. 8 or No. 9 seed in the Western Conference.
Both Golden State and Memphis sport identical 38-33 records at present — a win today for the Warriors would ensure they just need to win one of two play-in chances to make the playoffs, rather than two of two.
The 6’7″ Oubre was the team’s starting small forward for most of the season, starting in 50 of the 55 games in which he appeared. He will wrap up the 2020/21 regular season with averages of 15.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 SPG and 0.8 BPG across 30.7 MPG, with a shooting line of .439/.316/.695. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.
MAY 16: The Warriors have officially announced Payton’s new contract ahead of today’s regular season finale.
MAY 13: The Warriors plan to bring back Gary Payton II on a new deal this weekend, sources tell Shams Charania and Anthony Slater of The Athletic (Twitter links). Payton previously inked a pair of 10-day contracts with the team.
Payton, 28, got into 10 games for the Warriors during his 20 days with the organization. He only logged 40 total minutes in those 10 contests, but made the most of them, putting up 25 points on 10-of-13 shooting with 11 rebounds and six steals. Head coach Steve Kerr said at the time that the team wasn’t ruling out re-signing Payton before the end of the season.
“Gary played really well,” Kerr said in April. “He’s somebody who we feel like we’d love to have back. He’s got to consider his own options as well. So, we’ll see how it works out.”
Payton, the son of Hall-of-Famer Gary Payton, earned G League Defensive Player of the Year honors with the Raptors 905 earlier this year. He’ll provide depth in the backcourt for the Warriors as they prepare for the play-in tournament next week.
According to Slater (via Twitter), there’s an expectation that Payton’s new contract will extend beyond this season, though it’s unclear if any of next year’s money will be guaranteed. The terms are still being finalized, Slater adds.
Golden State currently just has 13 players on its standard 15-man roster, but is promoting two-way player Juan Toscano-Anderson to fill one of those spots — Payton would take the other, while Jordan Bell will be signed to a new two-way deal, giving the club a full 17-man squad.
Juan Toscano-Anderson has signed a standard contract that includes a fully guaranteed minimum salary for next season and he’s extremely grateful, as he told Anthony Slater of The Athletic and other media members (Twitter link). The 6’6” Warriors swingman calls it a “life-changing contract, a life-changing signature” and vows to work even harder. “I get kind of paranoid in situations like this,” he said. “I am happy but the real work starts now. I don’t feel pressure but there’s more I need to do, I need to raise the bar.”
We have more on the Warriors:
- James Wiseman had a spotty rookie season cut short by injury but coach Steve Kerr promises that the No. 2 pick of the draft won’t disappoint in the long run, Marcus White of NBC Sports Bay Area writes. “I have no doubt James is going to make a huge impact in this league,” Kerr said. “He’s gonna be a hell of a player, but it takes time and you can’t rush that process, unfortunately. It just has to happen on its own time, so he’ll get there, but we’ll just have to keep working with him. The good thing is he’s a great student, and he’s a hard worker and got a great approach. “
- Jordan Poole has continued to be a key player during the second half of the season, Kendra Andrews of NBC Sports Bay Area notes. The former University of Michigan guard is averaging 13.6 PPG and 2.4 APG since the All-Star break. Poole is under contract for next season and the team holds a $3.9MM option for the 2022/23 campaign.
- Draymond Green asserts his defensive impact goes far beyond stats, as he described to Sam Amick of The Athletic in a wide-ranging interview. “One thing I am certain of is that I can (mess) up an entire team’s offense,” he said. “And so, when you look at the impact that I have on the defensive side of the ball, it’s not always going to show up in blocked shots. It’s not always going to show up in steals. But I guarantee you it shows up in your favorite-player-who-I-may-be-playing-against’s mind.”
MAY 13, 3:38pm: Toscano-Anderson has officially signed his new contract with the Warriors, the team confirmed in a press release. Bell’s two-way deal is also official, according to a second release from the club.
MAY 13, 11:51am: Toscano-Anderson will receive a two-year contract that is worth more than the prorated minimum in 2020/21 and includes a fully guaranteed minimum salary for ’21/22, according to Charania and Slater (Twitter link). He’d then in be on track for restricted free agency in 2022.
With the Warriors set to complete their two roster moves, Bell is expected to be available for the team on Friday night, Slater adds (via Twitter).
MAY 7: The Warriors intend to promote two-way player Juan Toscano-Anderson to their 15-man roster and will sign big man Jordan Bell to a two-way contract to replace Toscano-Anderson, according to Shams Charania and Anthony Slater of The Athletic (Twitter link). The two moves will likely be completed next week.
The report doesn’t come as a real surprise. Having dipped to 13 players on standard contracts following the expiration of Gary Payton II‘s 10-day deal last week, Golden State has to add a 14th man by next Thursday. Slater had previously suggested this exact scenario, noting that Bell had been linked to the team and Toscano-Anderson has earned a promotion from his two-way deal based on his play this season.
Toscano-Anderson, 28, has emerged as a reliable rotation player for Golden State over the course of the 2020/21 campaign, averaging 5.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 2.6 APG with an impressive .584 FG% and .408 3PT% in 48 games (19.9 MPG). His performance has been crucial for a team missing some players on the wing, including injured All-Star Klay Thompson.
According to Slater (via Twitter), the terms of Toscano-Anderson’s new contract are still being finalized, so it’s unclear how much money beyond this season will be guaranteed or how many years the deal will cover. Golden State still has a portion of its taxpayer mid-level exception left, which could be used to lock up JTA for up to three years (through 2022/23).
As for Bell, his familiarity with the Warriors and Steve Kerr‘s system will allow him to step in right away and potentially contribute in the play-in tournament and/or the postseason, adding some depth to the Warriors’ frontcourt. Since this is his fourth year in the NBA, it’s the last season in which he’s eligible to sign a two-way contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
For the 10th year in a row, ESPN’s Zach Lowe has named his end-of-season “Luke Walton All-Stars,” honoring overlooked rotation players and NBA journeymen who have impressed him most over the course of the year.
Nets guard Bruce Brown, Warriors forward Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Raptors teammates Yuta Watanabe and DeAndre’ Bembry are among the players who made Lowe’s list, which also includes a handful of interesting tidbits on some of his choices. Here are a few highlights:
- Thunder forward Kenrich Williams, who resisted signing a two-way contract multiple times earlier in his career, has enjoyed a breakout year in Oklahoma City. Sources tell Lowe that several playoff teams expressed trade interest in Williams prior to March’s deadline, but he wanted to remain in OKC, where he’s under contract for two more years (both non-guaranteed).
- Suns guard Cameron Payne told Lowe that he thought his NBA career might be over in 2020, when the Mavericks opted to sign Trey Burke over him for the summer restart after he had played well for Dallas’ G League affiliate. However, he got an opportunity shortly thereafter with Phoenix, in large part because head coach Monty Williams had gotten to know him during their time with the Thunder.
- Another former first-round pick, Hornets guard Malik Monk, was concerned about his NBA career last year as well, following his suspension for violating the NBA’s drug policy, his brother Marcus Monk told Lowe. The former Kentucky standout has enjoyed a career year while trying to let go of tension about his role, Lowe writes. “Guys who have success in college think the NBA is going to go a certain way,” Marcus said. “You think you’re invincible. Malik fell victim to that. I’m proud of how he matured.”
- Before he signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the Knicks last fall, Alec Burks discussed a deal with the Bulls, according to Lowe. Burks’ familiarity with Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant from their time in Utah was a factor in his decision to choose New York.
- After an underwhelming stint in Denver, Isaiah Hartenstein has played well for the Cavaliers, averaging 8.3 PPG and 6.0 RPG in 16 games (17.9 MPG). Lowe says he wouldn’t be surprised if Hartenstein turns down his minimum-salary player option for 2021/22 to seek a new deal.
Serge Ibaka has joined the Clippers on their road trip, leaving open the possibility he will play before the postseason, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN tweets. However, Ibaka won’t play against Toronto on Tuesday, Andrew Greif of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The veteran center, who holds a $9.72MM option on next season’s contract, hasn’t played since March 14 due to a back injury.
We have more from the Pacific Division:
- Kyle Kuzma was held out of Sunday’s game due to lower back tightness, Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports tweets. Kuzma, who signed a three-year, $39MM extension in December, shot 2-for-11 from the field on Friday in a loss to Portland. The Lakers forward is averaging 12.8 PPG.
- Kings guard De’Aaron Fox would like to see the team’s front office exercise some patience, he told Howard Beck of Sports Illustrated. He’s weary of the constant tinkering of the roster. “If you’re not winning as a team, guys get traded, guys who were barely hanging on … get cut and are out the league and coaches get fired,” Fox said, while adding that the top teams have “players play together longer and develop chemistry, and coaches continue to grow and trust all their players.” Fox also spoke in the interview about his recent experience with COVID-19.
- Warriors guard Damion Lee got up some shots on the court Monday for the first time since clearing the league’s health and safety protocols, Kendra Andrews of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. Coach Steve Kerr said he’s unsure when Lee will return to game action. Lee contracted COVID-19 even after he had been fully vaccinated.
Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.
The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:
The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot
It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.
Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.
The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.
If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.
The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs
The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).
The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.
While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.
The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.
Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:
| # | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – |
| 6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.
In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”
For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.
Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.
The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot
The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.
Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.
Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.
For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.
Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.