Warriors Rumors

Lottery Races To Watch During Season’s Final Week

Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.

The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.

With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:


The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot

It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.

Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.

The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.

If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.


The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs

The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).

The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.

While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.

The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.

Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:

# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20
3 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7
4 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2
5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6
6 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1

When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.

In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”

For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.

Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.


The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot

The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.

Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.

Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.

For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.

Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.

Warriors Notes: Toscano-Anderson, Wiseman, Paschall, Wolves’ Pick

Juan Toscano-Anderson, who is expected to be promoted to the Warriors‘ 15-man roster next week after playing on a two-way contract all season, has impressed coach Steve Kerr with the way he plays the game, writes Marcus White of NBC Sports Bay Area. In a radio interview Friday, Kerr praised Toscano-Anderson for sticking to his NBA dream.

“Twenty-eight years old, he’s bounced around the entire world playing basketball, and I think our fans love him,” Kerr said. “I know we love him as a coaching staff. The guy just gets it. He plays with great energy, he’s smart, he’s tough. He’s improved his skill now as a passer and a shooter to a point where he’s really making a lot of plays out there for us.”

Toscano-Anderson has become a more efficient shooter from everywhere on the court in his second NBA season, White points out. He’s also part of Golden State’s lineup with the best net rating and best offensive rating.

“(When) a guy knows how to play and he can guard multiple spots, he can play in any combination, and that’s his real value to our team,” Kerr said. “He’s not dependent on a certain combination. In pretty much every case, he makes whatever combination he’s with better.”

There’s more on the Warriors:

  • Kerr said rookie center James Wiseman is in “great spirits” following meniscus surgery last month, White adds in a separate story. It’s not certain that Wiseman will be ready for the start of training camp, but Kerr said he plans to rehab at the team facility during the offseason. “James is a really willing athlete. Willing, patient. He wants to be here,” Kerr said. “He wants to get better however he can, so we’ll give him every opportunity to improve — both on the floor once he’s ready to get out there, but also obviously in the training room and in the weight room.”
  • The team isn’t sure if Eric Paschall will return before the end of the regular season, tweets Kendra Andrews of NBC Sports Bay Area. Recovering from a hip flexor strain, Paschall has been able to scrimmage but has barely practiced and is considered day to day.
  • This year probably presents the best chance for Golden State to earn maximum value from the Timberwolves‘ first-round pick, says Connor Letourneau of The San Francisco Chronicle. Minnesota’s selection is top-three protected in 2021 and unprotected in 2022, but the Wolves have shown signs of improvement and may not be among the league’s worst teams next season. Minnesota is tied for second in our current Reverse Standings, but could move “down” several spots with a strong finish. If the Wolves have the league’s second- or third-worst record, the Warriors will have nearly a 60% chance of seeing the pick convey this year.

Warriors Notes: Lee, Paschall, JTA, Bell, Kerr

Warriors wing Damion Lee, who is now out of quarantine, told reporters on Thursday that he contracted COVID-19 and dealt with a number of severe symptoms, as Kendra Andrews of NBC Sports Bay Area details. Lee dealt with a bad case of the virus despite being fully vaccinated, which makes him a rare case, according to data compiled by the CDC.

“I felt like I was hit by two cars at once,” Lee said. “Every step I took, it hurt. There was pain, soreness, it felt like there was a weight on my chest for a couple of days. It was hard to breathe. Loss of appetite, and even still I don’t have my appetite all the way back. Even random headaches, brain fog where I’ll start a conversation and be in on the conversation and then five minutes in, I lose track of what I was talking about or just don’t want to talk anymore.”

Although he was able to return to the team this week, Lee isn’t ready to take the court yet, and with just over a week remaining in the regular season, it’s not clear whether or not he’ll return at all. Noting that the Warriors are likely to take a cautious approach with Lee, Anthony Slater of The Athletic believes the 28-year-old may have played his last game of 2020/21.

Here’s more on the Warriors:

  • Of the Warriors’ injured players, Eric Paschall is closest to a return, according to Slater, who say the second-year forward is ramping up his conditions and will likely make it back during Golden State’s current home stand.
  • The Warriors will have to add a 14th man to their roster by the middle of next week, and Slater expects Juan Toscano-Anderson to fill that spot, receiving a promotion from his two-way deal. That could open the door for Jordan Bell, whom the Warriors are reportedly eyeing, to take Toscano-Anderson’s spot on a two-way contract.
  • Warriors head coach Steve Kerr spoke to Marcus Thompson II of The Athletic about the lessons he has learned during a challenging 2020/21 season. Golden State is 12-16 this season in “clutch” games (games within five points in the last five minutes), which is an area Kerr feels he can help improve. “Definitely some things that I can do better. Just little detail things,” he said. “What happens when you lose some close ones, you tend to think about every single decision you made. Obviously there’s a greater chance that one decision can make a difference in the game just because you have less margin for error. So less margin for error means I gotta be on my game.”
  • In case you missed it, Kelly Oubre will miss at least a week or two due to his wrist injury.

Oubre Doesn’t Need Surgery, Out 1-2 Weeks

Warriors forward Kelly Oubre Jr. will not need surgery on his ailing left wrist, Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports tweets. He’s expected to miss one to two weeks of action, Haynes adds.

Oubre was diagnosed last week with a torn ligament in his left wrist and a fracture on the palm of his left hand. He injured the wrist twice this season while falling to the floor after dunks. One happened in practice and the other was in a game against the Wizards on April 9.

Golden State entered Thursday’s action in ninth place in the Western Conference. The timeline gives the Warriors some hope Oubre would be able to suit up for the play-in tournament.

Oubre is averaging 15.4 PPG and 6.0 RPG through 55 games after being acquired from Phoenix in a November trade.

The fact that surgery is not required should preserve Oubre’s value in unrestricted free agency this summer.

Warriors Mulling Reunion With Jordan Bell

The Warriors are considering a contract offer to free agent big man Jordan Bell, Marcus Thompson of The Athletic tweets.

The 2017 second-round pick spent his first two seasons with Golden State. He appeared in 125 regular-season games but his time there was marred by controversy, including a team-imposed suspension after he charged hotel items to assistant coach Mike Brown.

Bell has played for three teams in the last two seasons. He signed two 10-day contracts with the Wizards this year but they didn’t offer him a standard contract after the second one expired. In total, Bell averaged 2.8 points and 3.8 rebounds in five games for Washington, playing 13.4 minutes per night.

The Warriors currently have two open roster spots and have until next Thursday to fill one of them. Bell could add depth to a frontcourt depleted by the loss of rookie James Wiseman, who is out for the season.

California Notes: Bagley, Toscano-Anderson, Warriors, Lakers

The future remains murky for oft-injured Kings power forward Marvin Bagley III, a talented scorer who still needs to develop on defense, writes Jason Jones of The Athletic.

On Sunday, during his second game back after his latest injury, a left hand bone fracture that kept him sidelined for 22 contests, Bagley showed flashes of the potential that made him so highly coveted out of Duke, racking up 23 points and nine rebounds. The Kings selected Bagley with the No. 2 draft pick in 2018 ahead of future All-Stars Luka Doncic and Trae Young.

“Obviously nobody plans to get a hand caught in a jersey and break your hand, but you can’t control things like that,” Bagley said of his latest injury for the Kings. “What I could control was how I prepared to come back and things that I was doing to make sure I was ready when I did come back.”

Sacramento previously picked up Bagley’s $11.3MM player option for 2021/22. As Jones writes, while Bagley was rumored to be a potential trade candidate in March, the Kings couldn’t find a deal that would net them enough of a return to be worth pursuing.

There’s more out of California:

  • Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has liked what he’s seen out of forward Juan Toscano-Anderson, writes Alex Espinoza of NBC Sports Bay Area. Currently inked to a two-way deal with Golden State, has fought his way into the Warriors’ rotation through his moxie and hustle, averaging 5.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 2.4 APG across 19.5 MPG. “We’ll see how it plays out,” Kerr said to reporters about a potential long-term deal with Toscano-Anderson after this season. “Juan is clearly a very effective NBA player. We’d like to have him here for a long time.”
  • Though the Warriors have been waylaid by injuries that have impacted their roster depth, they currently have two roster spots empty in a calculated cost-saving decision. Anthony Slater of The Athletic wonders if the club’s choice warrants further scrutiny, considering that it still fighting for a play-in tournament spot during a standout year from All-Star point guard Stephen Curry.
  • Lakers guard Alex Caruso has had to take on more play-making duties for Los Angeles with key ball-handlers LeBron James and Dennis Schroder both sidelined, as Kyle Goon of the Orange County Register writes.

Strauss Considers Value Of Warriors', Timberwolves' First-Rounders

  • With Minnesota playing well as of late, Ethan Strauss of The Athletic explores whether there’s a chance that the Warriors could end up with a better shot at a top-five pick with their own first-rounder than with the Timberwolves’ selection.

Check-In On 10-Day Contracts, Open Roster Spots

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will come to an end on May 16. That means that there are just 14 days left in the season, and just four more days left to sign a player to a 10-day contract. As of this Friday (May 7), a 10-day deal would technically cover the remainder of the season.

With the playoffs around the corner, it makes sense that the number of active 10-day contracts around the NBA has been on the decline. The number of league-wide roster openings is also dwindling.

Here are the 10-day contracts that are currently active:

Of those three players, Brown is the only one who will technically be eligible to sign another 10-day contract when his current pact expires.

Meanwhile, with players like Austin Rivers, Mfiondu Kabengele, Anthony Tolliver, Yogi Ferrell, and Freddie Gillespie signing rest-of-season contracts within the last several days, more and more teams now have full 15-man rosters and may be done making roster moves this season.

The following teams still have at least one open spot on their 15-man squads:

  • Golden State Warriors (2)
  • Miami Heat
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • New York Knicks
  • Portland Trail Blazers
  • San Antonio Spurs
  • Washington Wizards

In addition to these clubs, the Nets, Magic, and Thunder would each have a roster opening if they don’t retain the players on 10-day contracts noted above. The Knicks just opened their 15th roster spot on Sunday night, when Jared Harper‘s 10-day deal expired.

While many of these teams figure to fill their rosters before the regular season ends – either with a developmental prospect or one more veteran for postseason depth – the Warriors are the only club here that must add at least one more player. Teams are only permitted to dip below 14 players on standard contracts for up to two weeks at a time. Since Golden State was carrying Gary Payton II on a 10-day deal up until last Thursday, they’ll have until next Thursday (May 13) to re-add a 14th man.

The following teams also have an open two-way contract slot, which they may or may not fill during the season’s final two weeks:

  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • New York Knicks
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Toronto Raptors

Warriors' Loss To Timberwolves Serves As Most Consequential Defeat

  • The Warriors‘ loss to the Timberwolves on Thursday was their most consequential defeat of the season, Anthony Slater of The Athletic writes, noting that the result negatively impacted both the Dubs’ playoff position and the Wolves’ lottery position. Golden State lost the contest 126-114 (and was out-rebounded by 23), though the team bounced back on Saturday to defeat Houston 113-87.

Kelly Oubre Has Torn Wrist Ligament, Palm Fracture

Warriors forward Kelly Oubre has been diagnosed with a torn ligament in his left wrist and a fracture on the palm of his left hand, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic.

Further evaluations will be conducted to see if Oubre can continue playing, sources tell Charania. He reaggravated the wrist injury in an April 9 game, then returned to the court 11 days later, Charania adds.

Oubre hurt the wrist twice this season while falling to the floor after dunks, explains Anthony Slater of The Athletic (via Twitter). One happened in practice and the other was in a game against the Wizards on April 9.

Oubre is averaging 15.4 points and 6.0 rebounds through 55 games in his first season with Golden State after being acquired in a November trade. He is headed toward unrestricted free agency after making $14.375MM this season.