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Where Traded Draft Picks Would Land If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 9:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier today, we explored what the lottery odds for the 2020 NBA draft would look like if the regular season doesn’t resume. We’re now applying that hypothetical to another aspect of the draft and examining which traded 2020 picks would and wouldn’t change hands based on the current standings.

Our projections below assume that the NBA will sort its standings by winning percentage in scenarios where teams haven’t played the same number of games this season. Again, this is just a hypothetical exercise — if the season resumes, the order below would likely change.

With that in mind and with the help of our reverse standings, let’s take a closer look at where this year’s traded draft picks would land if the NBA has played its last regular season game of 2019/20.

First round:

Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
- Note: Could be No. 20 depending on random tiebreaker.
Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
- Note: Could be No. 19 depending on random tiebreaker.
Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
- Note: Could be No. 22 depending on random tiebreaker.
Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 21 depending on random tiebreaker.
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
New York Knicks (from Clippers)
Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

Golden State Warriors (to Nets; top-20 protected)
Cleveland Cavaliers (to Pelicans; top-20 protected)
Utah Jazz (to Grizzlies; top-7 and 15-30 protected)

Notes:

The Thunder pick would be the one worth watching closest if the season does resume. It’s top-20 protected, so OKC would keep it if it were to move up a spot or two, sending the Sixers second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 instead.

Second round:

Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
New York Knicks (from Hornets)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
Boston Celtics (from Nets)
Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets)
- Note: Could be No. 51 depending on random tiebreaker.
Sacramento Kings (from Heat)
Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

Indiana Pacers (to Nets; 45-60 protected)
Portland Trail Blazers (to Nets; top-55 protected)

Notes:

The Hawks will receive the more favorable of Houston’s and Miami’s second-round picks, while the Kings will receive the less favorable of those two picks. Those two picks could end up right next to one another, since the Rockets (40-24) and Heat (41-24) have nearly identical records.
The Celtics’ pick looks like it will be one of the rare second-rounders with heavy protection that will actually change hands. Boston would have kept it if it had fallen in the top 53.

What 2020 Lottery Odds Would Look Like If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 1:33pm CST by Luke Adams

While the NBA hopes that resuming the 2019/20 season will be possible, there are scenarios in which the league could proceed directly to the postseason or has to cancel the rest of the ’19/20 campaign entirely. If such measures are necessary, it would mean that the NBA’s current standings will be its final standings.

It’s tricky to say exactly what that would mean for an event like the 2020 NBA draft, which hinges in large part on the previous season’s standings. After all, some teams have played as few as 64 games, while others have played as many as 67.

Teams like the Hawks (20-47) and Cavaliers (19-46) are an equal number of games back of the clubs ahead of them the standings, but Atlanta has the better winning percentage. Presumably, that would mean Cleveland moves ahead of the Hawks in the projected draft order and for lottery odds purposes. Based on winning percentage, the Cavs would also have better lottery positioning than the Timberwolves (19-45), despite having the same number of wins.

With that in mind, we’re looking today at what the lottery odds would be if the NBA’s regular season doesn’t resume and the league ranks its teams by winning percentage. It’s a hypothetical exercise, but one which could become increasingly relevant the longer the league’s hiatus extends.

For a full breakdown of how the NBA draft lottery works, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject. The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since the Kings and Pelicans currently have identical records. That tie would impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of our reverse standings and data from Tankathon.com – which is worth bookmarking for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new, hypothetical odds for 2020 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
GSW	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
CLE	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
MIN	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
ATL	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.8	2.2	–	–	–	–	–	–
DET	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.8	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
NYK	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.6	20.6	3.8	0.2	–	–	–	–
CHI	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
CHA	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0	–	–
WSH	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	50.7	25.9	3	0.1	>0	–
PHX	3	3.3	3.6	4	–	–	–	–	–	65.9	18.9	1.2	>0	>0
SAS	2	2.2	2.4	2.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	77.6	12.6	0.4	>0
SAC*	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	86.1	7.6	0.1
NOP*	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	92.0	2.3
POR	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97.6

* The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped.

Abbreviated Season Won't Help Warriors

March 16th, 2020 at 9:04pm CST by Dana Gauruder

An abbreviated regular season if the season is restarted wouldn’t do teams like the Warriors much good, Anthony Slater of The Athletic argues. It would be easier for the teams currently owning a playoff berth to play some tuneup games while ending the season for the 14 lottery-bound teams. That would allow their front offices to focus on their roster remakes and players to work on their games, Slater adds.

Warriors Contribute $1 Million To Disaster Relief Funds

March 15th, 2020 at 9:38pm CST by JD Shaw

The Warriors’ ownership, players and coaches have combined to contribute $1MM to disaster relief funds for employees of the Chase Center, the team announced on social media (Twitter link). “The men and women who work our games at Chase Center are critical in providing an incredible game-night experience for our fans, including of course, the popcorn vendors,” Stephen Curry said. “As players, we wanted to do something, along with our ownership and coaches, to help ease the pain during this time.”

Heat Notes: Haslem, Mulder, Dragic, Free Agency

March 15th, 2020 at 9:08am CST by Arthur Hill

If the NBA season doesn’t resume, that will likely mark the end of Udonis Haslem‘s long career, writes Ira Winderman of The Sun-Sentinel. The veteran forward, who will turn 40 in June, returned for another year because he didn’t want to leave the league after a non-playoff season.

Haslem didn’t commit to retiring when asked about the possibility last month, but he has gotten into just three games this year and has played a combined 21 minutes. It’s his fourth straight season with minimal court time as he has evolved into more of an assistant coach than a player. Winderman is confident that Haslem’s number will be retired after 17 years with the Heat.

There’s more this morning from Miami:

After the Heat signed Kendrick Nunn off the Warriors‘ G League affiliate late last season, Golden State has done the same thing to Miami by taking Mychal Mulder from the Sioux Falls team, Winderman notes in a separate story. When Mulder signed a 10-day contract with the Warriors in late February, Heat officials expected him to eventually return to the organization. Instead, he had a strong performance in his tryout and earned a multi-year deal. Winderman adds that Miami elected to give a two-way contract to Gabe Vincent rather than Mulder.
An associate of Goran Dragic tells Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald that the point guard expects a sizable one-year offer from the Heat this summer, likely around the $19MM he is currently making. Dragic will be a free agent after five and a half years in Miami, and Jackson notes that his friendship with Jimmy Butler provides extra incentive to keep him around. “We’ll see,” Dragic responded when asked about signing for one season. “A lot of different factors, my family, myself. I would say it’s too soon to talk about it. I’m not thinking about my next contract. I’ve always been a guy in the present.”
The Heat can create more cap room this summer than any other playoff team, but they might opt to keep the current core together, Jackson adds in the same piece. Opening cap space would mean renouncing most of their free agents — a group that includes Derrick Jones Jr., Jae Crowder and Meyers Leonard as well as Dragic. Jackson doesn’t see any free agent targets worth that gamble, unless Anthony Davis decides to leave the Lakers, while the potential loss of revenue from the league shutdown makes the salary cap unpredictable.

Western Notes: Mitchell, Kerr, Anthony, Suns

March 13th, 2020 at 9:59pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Donovan Mitchell is “extremely frustrated” with Jazz teammate Rudy Gobert after testing positive for the coronavirus, league sources told Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix. Gobert has apologized for his careless actions earlier in the week, prior to being the first NBA player to test positive. The team has a solid young core but how Mitchell responds when play resumes could make or break their relationship, Mannix continues. The Jazz were rising up the Western Conference standings but if this leads to locker room issues, it could have a major impact on the franchise’s playoff expectations, Mannix adds.

We have more from the Western Conference:

Warriors coach Steve Kerr is upset at himself for not taking the coronavirus more seriously earlier this week and believes social distancing is now paramount, Anthony Slater of The Athletic reports. “I was coaching in a basketball game with 15,000 fans like four nights ago. So I feel like a fool,” Kerr said. “But this goes back to our human condition of denial and vulnerability. But we’ve crossed that threshold now and it’s important that everybody understands what they can do.”
Trail Blazers forward Carmelo Anthony said on teammate CJ McCollum‘s podcast that he was “embarrassed” that he was a free agent for so long until Portland signed him, according to Casey Holdahl of the team’s website. “I started questioning myself why. Why? What happened? What did I do? Did I do something wrong? Was it me? Am I good? Can I still play? It was like all of these thoughts started to come in and that stuck with me for about four, five months.”
The Suns could have all their injured players back in action if and when the season resumes, Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic relays. That group includes forward Kelly Oubre Jr., who underwent knee surgery earlier this month, and Frank Kaminsky III, who missed the last 32 games due to a knee injury. “You try to make a positive out of a negative,” GM James Jones said. “It could end up being a really good thing for us and if that’s the case, I know our guys will be excited. I know our coaches, myself, I’ll be excited to have our team full strength or close to it, contending and playing in some meaningful games.”

Hiatus Notes: Revenue, G League, Warriors, Kings

March 13th, 2020 at 8:15pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The league could lose nearly $500MM in ticket revenue if the remainder of the season is not played out, Tom Haberstroh of NBC Sports Philadelphia estimates. Using an unnamed high-ranking league official as a source, Haberstroh relays that the NBA makes an average of $1.2MM in gate revenue per regular season game and $2MM for each playoff game. There were 259 regular-season games remaining, a loss of approximately $300MM in ticket revenue. With 83 postseason games played on average, the league would lose $166MM in postseason revenue.

The loss of basketball-related income could actually total near the $500MM for the regular season alone, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks. That would directly affect the salary cap and luxury tax for next season. However, a resumption of the season with fans in attendance could mitigate and eliminate those potential financial losses, Marks adds.

We have more regarding the suspension of NBA games:

G League players will be paid as contracted and receive benefits, league expert Adam Johnson tweets. The remainder of the NBAGL season has already been suspended, with Johnson suggesting it may be canceled entirely. The G League’s regular season had been scheduled to end on March 28, with the postseason to follow.
Warriors staffers will work from home for at least the next two weeks, Nick Friedell of ESPN tweets. Their players will be allowed to work out individually inside the team’s facility but it’s not a requirement.
The Kings have suspended all team activities through Monday, according to a team press release. The players will remain in the Sacramento area but will not participate in group workouts or practices. No Kings players have experienced symptoms of COVID-19.

Seven Players On 10-Day Contracts When NBA Suspended Season

March 13th, 2020 at 3:00pm CST by Luke Adams

A moratorium agreement between the NBA and the NBPA will reportedly affect players on 10-day contracts, as Shams Charania of The Athletic said earlier today. Following up on that point, ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter links) confirms that the clock will stop on the 10-day contracts that were active when the NBA suspended its season.

Presumably, Grizzlies forward Anthony Tolliver won’t be impacted. His 10-day deal with Memphis was set to expire on Wednesday night, the last night of game action before the suspension began. Once the moratorium is lifted and play resumes, he’ll likely have to sign a new 10-day contract or rest-of-season pact with the Grizzlies to remain with the team.

However, there were seven other players whose 10-day contracts had yet to run their course as of Wednesday night. Here are the affected players, with the number of days remaining on their deals noted in parentheses:

Joe Chealey, Hornets (1)
Donta Hall, Pistons (1)
Chasson Randle, Warriors (1)
Sir’Dominic Pointer, Cavaliers (2)
Dragan Bender, Warriors (3)
Sheldon Mac, Cavaliers (6)
Joakim Noah, Clippers (7)

We’ll have to wait for official details on the moratorium agreement to confirm exactly how these 10-day deals will be handled.

Based on today’s reports though, it sounds like the contracts for players like Chealey, Hall, and Randle, which would have expired on Thursday night, will carry over to the day the season resumes. A player like Noah, who still had a week left on his 10-day contract, should play out that week following the resumption of the season.

Unless we learn otherwise, our roster counts page and 10-day tracker will assume these seven 10-day contracts remain active.

Latest On The NBA’s Coronavirus Precautions

March 11th, 2020 at 6:17pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The NBA’s Board of Governors had a call with the league office earlier today and discussed plans going forward with regard to taking precautions amid the coronavirus outbreak. Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe of ESPN.com report (Twitter links) that the stakeholders have narrowed it down to two main options: play without fans in the arena or have the league take a hiatus for a period of time.

The greater consensus is to have the games go on without fans, Woj notes. The decision is expected to come as soon as Thursday on what the next steps will be.

The Warriors will play without fans in the arena on Thursday. It was reported that playing behind closed doors is expected to result in a “multi-million dollar loss”

The Sixers are among the teams that will continue to host fans, including tonight’s content against the Pistons. However, Philadelphia and other clubs have sent out memos with preventive and restrictive measures fans can and should take.

The Wizards have opted to remain open for business, for now, despite the D.C. Department of Health advising against holding non-essential gatherings of over 1,000 people. However, Washington doesn’t have a home game again until Sunday, so the decision to play without fans isn’t as urgent for the district as it is for other teams.

The NCAA announced that fans will not be allowed to attend games for the men’s and women’s tournaments this year.

Warriors Notes: Randle, Curry, Mulder, Toscano-Anderson

March 11th, 2020 at 5:01pm CST by Jovan Alford

This season has been one to forget for the Warriors, as they have a record of 15-50 and remain on track for a top-five pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. That being said, despite all the losses, Golden State’s front office has been able to identify different players who could be key contributors in the future.

Players such as Marquese Chriss, Damion Lee, Ky Bowman, and Mychal Mulder are examples of Golden State finding diamonds in the rough this season, opines Anthony Slater of The Athletic.

The Warriors signed Mulder to a multi-year minimum, non-guaranteed deal on Tuesday, making him the latest player to get a commitment beyond this season from the team. John Hollinger of The Athletic reported that Golden State used a portion of its mid-level exception to sign the former University of Kentucky guard.

In seven games this season with the Warriors, Mulder is averaging 11 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.1 assists in 29.1 minutes per game.

Here’s more news out of San Francisco:

Juan Toscano-Anderson was seen in a walking boot and is scheduled to have an MRI on his ankle, according to ESPN’s Nick Friedell. Head coach Steve Kerr doesn’t expect the forward to join Golden State on its upcoming road trip.
In other Warriors injury news, superstar guard Stephen Curry is on track to play on Thursday night against the Nets, per Slater. Curry has been out with the seasonal flu. He made his return to his basketball court last Thursday after missing time with a fractured hand.
Steve Berman of The Athletic detailed point guard Chasson Randle‘s journey from the Chinese Basketball Association to receiving a 10-day contract with Golden State. Randle was one of the many American players in the CBA that were sent home over the Lunar New Year in January. Randle’s 10-day contract is set to expire on Thursday.