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Community Shootaround: First Round Playoff Series

April 23rd, 2024 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

After the NBA playoffs tipped off on Saturday with a handful of one-sided contests, things got a little more interesting on Sunday and Monday, with the Thunder, Knicks, and Nuggets among the teams to pull out victories in games that went down to the wire.

All three days of the playoffs so far, however, have had one thing in common: The home team has won. The road teams have an 0-11 record entering Tuesday’s action.

It’s not necessarily surprising that the home teams are controlling the eight series so far. Those clubs are the higher seeds, and home-court advantage is often a difference-maker in the postseason.

Still, it’s somewhat rare for the higher seeds to be quite this dominant to open the playoffs, especially when we saw so much parity during the regular season. The No. 2 and No. 8 seeds in the East finished the season just four games apart, while only two games separated the No. 4 to No. 7 teams in the West.

The lower seeds are going to start picking up some wins at some point, especially in Game 3s when they get to play on their respective home courts. But will any of them actually make it out of the first round?

Currently, BetOnline.ag lists all the lower seeds as series underdogs, giving the Mavericks (+140) the best chance to erase its 1-0 deficit and win the series. Those odds aren’t surprising — Dallas finished the season strong, was only a game behind the Clippers in the standings, and seems unlikely to face a fully healthy Kawhi Leonard in the first round.

The Suns (+150) and Pacers (+195) are also viewed as viable candidates to pull off upsets over Minnesota and Milwaukee, respectively. On the other hand, despite only being down 1-0 in their series, the Pelicans (+660) and Heat (+5000!) are massive underdogs vs. the Thunder and Celtics.

Of the teams who have to climb out of a 2-0 hole, BetOnline.ag views the Sixers (+380) as the strongest candidates for a comeback, followed by the Magic (+640) and Lakers (+870).

We want to know what you think. Will any of the eight lower seeds make it out of the first round? If so, which ones do you expect to see in round two?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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NBA Player Option Decisions For 2024/25

April 23rd, 2024 at 1:00pm CST by Luke Adams

A number of NBA contracts include player options in the final year. Those option years give the player the opportunity to either opt into the last year of his deal and finish out his contract or to decline the option and hit the free agent market a year early.

Several factors play a part in a player’s option decision. The value of the option salary is obviously crucial, as is the player’s performance in the season leading up to his decision.

The state of the NBA’s salary cap also often becomes a necessary consideration for players weighing their decisions. If the salary cap is projected to increase only modestly, or if not many teams around the league project to have cap room, a player may be more inclined to take the guaranteed money rather than trying his luck on the open market.

This year’s player options are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the spring and early summer to note the latest decisions as they’re reported or announced.

While some players may face earlier deadlines (as noted below), all option decisions must be finalized by June 29.

Boston Celtics

Brooklyn Nets

Charlotte Hornets

  • Davis Bertans ($16,000,000): Opted in
    • Note: Bertans’ option is technically an early termination option.
    • Note: If Bertans opts in, his salary will only be partially guaranteed for $5.25MM.

Chicago Bulls

Denver Nuggets

Golden State Warriors

Indiana Pacers

Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles Lakers

Memphis Grizzlies

Miami Heat

New York Knicks

Phoenix Suns

Washington Wizards

Decision deadline information from ESPN’s Bobby Marks was used in the creation of this post.

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2024 Pre-Lottery NBA Draft Order

April 22nd, 2024 at 5:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted its draft tiebreakers on Monday, further cementing the draft order for 2024. While we’ll have to wait until the May 12 draft lottery to learn the exact order for this year’s event, we now know what most of the 58 selections look like.

Listed below is the pre-lottery 2024 NBA draft order. Each lottery team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick is noted in parentheses. We’ve also included notes for picks whose status remains up in the air depending on the lottery results.

[RELATED: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Odds]

The second-round draft order for teams with identical regular season records is the inverse of their first-round order. This rule applies even when one club made the playoffs and one didn’t. For instance, the 46-36 Heat will pick ahead of the 46-36 Kings in the second round.

We’ll provided an updated list after the May 12 lottery, once the official draft order is set, but here’s the tentative 2024 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons (14.0%)
  2. Washington Wizards (14.0%)
  3. Charlotte Hornets (13.3%)
  4. Portland Trail Blazers (13.2%)
  5. San Antonio Spurs (10.5%)
  6. Toronto Raptors (9.0%)
    • Note: The Spurs will receive this pick if it falls out of the top six (54.2%).
  7. Memphis Grizzlies (7.5%)
  8. Utah Jazz (6.0%)
    • Note: The Thunder will receive this pick if it falls out of the top 10 (0.5%).
  9. Houston Rockets (from Nets) (4.5%)
  10. Atlanta Hawks (3.0%)
  11. Chicago Bulls (2.0%)
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Rockets) (1.5%)
    • Note: The Rockets will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (7.2%).
  13. Sacramento Kings (0.8%)
  14. Portland Trail Blazers (from Warriors) (0.7%)
    • Note: The Warriors will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (3.4%).
  15. Miami Heat
  16. Philadelphia 76ers
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
    • Note: The Pelicans have until June 1 to decide whether they want to acquire this pick or instead acquire the Lakers’ unprotected 2025 first-round pick.
  18. Orlando Magic
  19. Toronto Raptors (from Pacers)
  20. Cleveland Cavaliers
  21. New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)
  22. Phoenix Suns
  23. Milwaukee Bucks (from Pelicans)
  24. New York Knicks (from Mavericks)
  25. New York Knicks
  26. Washington Wizards (from Clippers)
  27. Minnesota Timberwolves
  28. Denver Nuggets
  29. Utah Jazz (from Thunder)
  30. Boston Celtics

Second Round:

  1. Toronto Raptors (from Pistons)
  2. Utah Jazz (from Wizards)
  3. Milwaukee Bucks (from Trail Blazers)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 34 if the Trail Blazers end up with a higher first-round pick than the Hornets via the lottery.
  4. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hornets)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 33 if the Trail Blazers end up with a higher first-round pick than the Hornets via the lottery.
  5. San Antonio Spurs
  6. Indiana Pacers (from Raptors)
  7. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Grizzlies)
  8. New York Knicks (from Jazz)
  9. Memphis Grizzlies (from Nets)
  10. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hawks)
  11. Philadelphia 76ers (from Bulls)
  12. Charlotte Hornets (from Rockets)
  13. Miami Heat
  14. Houston Rockets (from Warriors)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 45 if the Warriors end up with a higher first-round pick than the Kings via the lottery.
  15. Sacramento Kings
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 44 if the Warriors end up with a higher first-round pick than the Kings via the lottery.
  16. Los Angeles Clippers (from Pacers)
  17. Orlando Magic
  18. San Antonio Spurs (from Lakers)
  19. Philadelphia 76ers
  20. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  21. Indiana Pacers (from Pelicans)
  22. Washington Wizards (from Suns)
  23. Golden State Warriors (from Bucks)
  24. Detroit Pistons (from Knicks)
  25. Boston Celtics (from Mavericks)
  26. Los Angeles Lakers (from Clippers)
  27. Denver Nuggets (from Timberwolves)
  28. Memphis Grizzlies (from Thunder)
  29. Phoenix Suns (from Nuggets)
  30. Dallas Mavericks (from Celtics)
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2024 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

April 22nd, 2024 at 5:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA will be using its revamped lottery system for the sixth time this year. The format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery]

The changes had an immediate impact in 2019, when the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

In 2020, the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck was especially meaningful in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.

The lottery results since 2021 have featured fewer surprises. Perhaps, after a few relatively by-the-numbers lottery outcomes in a row, we’ll see a more significant shake-up in 2024. This year’s draft lottery will take place on Sunday, May 12.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2024 are listed in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Pistons‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of becoming the No. 1 selection and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%. Odds are rounded to the nearest decimal place.

Here’s the full chart (if you’re on our mobile site or app and can’t see the whole thing, try turning your phone sideways):

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
WSH 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
CHA 13.3 12.9 12.4 11.7 15.3 27.1 7.4 – – – – – – –
POR 13.2 12.8 12.3 11.7 6.8 24.6 16.4 2.2 – – – – – –
SAS 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
TOR* 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
MEM 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
UTH* 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
BKN* 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
ATL 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
CHI 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
HOU* 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
SAC 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
GSW* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 – – – – – – – – – 96.6

Notes:

  • The Raptors‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs if it lands outside the top six.
  • The Jazz‘s pick will be sent to the Thunder if it lands outside the top 10.
  • The Nets‘ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
  • The Rockets‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it lands outside the top four.
  • The Warriors‘ pick will be sent to the Trail Blazers if it lands outside the top four.

The full pre-lottery 2024 draft order can be found right here.

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Poll: Who Should Win 2023/24 NBA Awards?

April 22nd, 2024 at 7:25am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA announced the 2023/24 finalists for its seven major awards on Sunday, revealing the top three vote-getters for Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Coach of the Year, and the newly added Clutch Player of the Year.

Some of these awards have felt like foregone conclusions for a while, but some results could be genuine surprises when they’re revealed beginning this week.

Today though, we’re not focusing on which players will win the awards, but the ones you believe should win them. Select your winners for this year’s major NBA awards in the seven polls below, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.

Our polls only include the three finalists in each category, but if you think someone else deserves to win one of these awards, be sure to use the comment section to “write in” that pick and explain your reasoning.

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Post-Play-In Update On 2024 Draft Order, Lottery Standings

April 20th, 2024 at 7:28am CST by Luke Adams

As we explained on Monday following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2023/24 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2024 draft order one step closer to being officially set.

Here’s what we know now…

Lottery teams

The results of the play-in tournament didn’t actually change the lottery standings we originally projected on Sunday. The teams that entered the play-in as the seventh and eighth seeds are the ones that made it through.

The Sixers and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face New York and Boston, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Lakers and Pelicans locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Denver and Oklahoma City, respectively.

As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
WSH 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
CHA 13.3 12.9 12.4 11.7 15.3 27.1 7.4 – – – – – – –
POR 13.2 12.8 12.3 11.7 6.8 24.6 16.4 2.2 – – – – – –
SAS 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
TOR* 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
MEM 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
UTH* 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
BKN* 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
ATL 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
CHI 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
HOU* 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
SAC 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
GSW* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 – – – – – – – – – 96.6

* Asterisks denote traded picks:

  • The Raptors‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs if it’s outside the top six.
  • The Jazz‘s pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top 10.
  • The Nets‘ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
  • The Rockets‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top four.
  • The Warriors‘ pick will be sent to the Trail Blazers if it’s outside the top four.

Multiple tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since two pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.

The teams listed above in italics and marked with asterisks were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:

  1. Charlotte Hornets / Portland Trail Blazers (21-61)
  2. Sacramento Kings / Golden State Warriors (46-36)

For instance, if the Trail Blazers win their tiebreaker with the Hornets, they’ll be the team that can’t fall further than No. 7 in the lottery, while Charlotte could slide as far as No. 8.

Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as each other, though the club that wins the tiebreaker will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 3 and No. 13.

Traded first-round picks

The play-in results also provided some clarity on certain first-round picks that were traded with protections.

Crucially, the fact that the Kings missed out on the playoffs means they’ll hang onto their 2024 first-round pick, since it was top-14 protected and will land in that range. Instead of receiving Sacramento’s ’24 first-rounder, the Hawks will be owed the Kings’ 2025 pick, with top-12 protection.

The fact that the Warriors ended up in the lottery means there still a chance they could hang onto their first-round pick, which is top-four protected. Those odds are slim though — the Warriors will have a 3.8% chance of moving up into the top four if they win their tiebreaker with Sacramento, or a 3.4% chance if the Kings win that tiebreaker.

That means the Trail Blazers will have either a 96.2% or 96.6% chance to receive Golden State’s pick. Portland is actually probably rooting for the Warriors to win that tiebreaker with the Kings, even though it would ever so slightly reduce the Blazers’ odds of getting the pick — in that scenario, the Blazers would almost certainly receive No. 13 instead of No. 14.

Two more traded picks are worth mentioning, given the results of the play-in tournament. First, the Lakers‘ first-rounder will now end up somewhere in the No. 16-19 range, depending on tiebreakers. The Pelicans have the option of acquiring that pick or deferring it to 2025 — the odds of a deferral are higher now that it’s not a lottery selection.

The Pelicans’ ability to swap picks with the Bucks also remains alive as a result of New Orleans’ playoff berth. The two teams finished with identical records and also tied with Phoenix, so a three-way tiebreaker will determine the picks from No. 21 to 23. If Milwaukee ends up with a higher pick than New Orleans as a result of those tiebreakers, the Pelicans will exercise their swap rights.

Playoff teams

Based on the play-in results, the draft order in the middle of the first round will be as follows:

  1. Miami Heat (46-36)
  2. Indiana Pacers / Los Angeles Lakers / Orlando Magic / Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
    • Note: The Pacers’ pick will be sent to the Raptors.
    • Note: The Lakers’ pick may be sent to the Pelicans (New Orleans has the option to defer it to 2025).
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34)
  4. Milwaukee Bucks / New Orleans Pelicans / Phoenix Suns (49-33)
    • Note: The Pelicans have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Bucks.

In addition to the tiebreaker required for the 16-19 and 21-23 picks, the following tiebreakers will be necessary for playoff teams:

  1. Dallas Mavericks / New York Knicks (50-32)
    • Note: The Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks.
  2. Denver Nuggets / Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
    • Note: The Thunder’s pick will be sent to the Jazz.

It’s worth noting that even though Miami, Sacramento, and Golden State all finished the season with identical 46-36 records, the Heat aren’t involved in the Kings/Warriors tiebreaker because they made the playoffs and the other two teams didn’t.

Because those three teams finished tied in the standings, however, Miami will get the first pick of the three in round two — it will be No. 43, while the Kings and Warriors will pick at No. 44 and 45, in some order.

The random tiebreakers for draft positioning are typically conducted on the Monday eight days after the regular season, which would be April 22. Once those are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2024 draft.

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Key 2024 NBA Offseason Dates, Deadlines

April 19th, 2024 at 8:00pm CST by Luke Adams

With the 2023/24 NBA regular season in the books, nearly half of the league’s teams have shifted their focus to the offseason and others will soon follow suit.

That means it’s time to retire our list of the NBA’s key in-season dates and deadlines for the ’23/24 campaign in favor of an updated offseason calendar of the most important dates facing teams and players in the coming months.

In the space below, you’ll find a breakdown of many of the NBA’s important dates and deadlines for the next few months, right up until training camps open for the 2024/25 season.

April 27

  • Deadline for early entrants to declare for the NBA draft (10:59 pm CT).
    • Note: For more information on draft-related dates and deadlines, check out our full breakdown.

May 11-12

  • NBA G League Elite Camp for draft prospects.

May 12

May 12-19

  • NBA draft combine.

May 29

  • Last day for early entrants to withdraw from the NBA draft and retain their NCAA eligibility (10:59 pm CT).

June 6

  • NBA Finals begin.

June 16

  • Deadline for all early entrants (including international players) to withdraw from the NBA draft (4:00 pm CT).

June 23

  • Latest possible end date for NBA Finals.

TBD (first day after NBA Finals)

  • Teams can begin negotiating with their own free agents.

June 26

  • Day one of NBA draft (first round)

June 27

  • Day two of NBA draft (second round)

June 29

  • Last day for decisions on player, team, and early termination options
    • Note: Certain contracts will require earlier decisions.
  • Last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.

June 30

  • Last official day of the 2023/24 NBA league year.
  • Last day for players eligible for veteran extensions in 2023/24 to sign them.
  • Teams can begin negotiating with outside free agents (5:00 pm CT).

July 1

  • Official start of the 2024/25 NBA league year.
  • Moratorium period begins.
  • Restricted free agents can sign an offer sheet.
  • Teams can begin signing players to one- or two-year minimum-salary contracts.
  • Teams can begin signing players to two-way contracts.
  • Teams can begin signing first-round picks to rookie scale contracts.
  • Teams can begin signing second-round picks using the second-round pick exception.
  • Teams can begin exercising the third- or fourth-year team options for 2025/26 on rookie scale contracts.

July 6

  • Moratorium period ends (11:01 am CT).
  • Teams can begin officially signing players, extending players, and completing trades (11:01 am CT).
  • The 24-hour period for matching an RFA offer sheet signed during the moratorium begins (11:01 am CT).

July 12-22

  • Las Vegas Summer League.

July 13

  • Last day for teams to unilaterally withdraw qualifying offers to restricted free agents.

July 27

  • Start of 2024 Olympics in Paris.

July 31

  • Players signed using the second-round pick exception begin to count against a team’s cap.

August 5

  • Last day for teams to issue required tenders to unsigned second-round picks.

August 10

  • Gold and bronze medal games at the Paris Olympics.

August 29

  • Last day for teams to waive players and apply the stretch provision to their 2024/25 salaries.

September 27

  • Training camps open for teams playing exhibition games outside North America.

October 1

  • Training camps open for the remaining teams.

October 19

  • Last day for players on fully non-guaranteed contracts to be waived and not count at all against a team’s 2024/25 cap. They must clear waivers before the first day of the regular season.

October 21

  • Last day of the 2024 offseason.
  • Roster limits decrease from 21 players to 18 (4:00 pm CT). Teams will be limited to carrying 15 players on standard contracts and three on two-way deals as of this deadline.
  • Last day for teams to sign a player to a rookie scale extension (5:00 pm CT).
  • Last day for teams to sign an extension-eligible veteran player with multiple seasons left on his contract to an extension. An extension-eligible veteran player on an expiring deal can still be extended after October 21.
  • Last day for teams to complete sign-and-trade deals.
  • Last day for teams to convert an Exhibit 10 contract into a two-way contract.

October 22

  • 2024/25 regular season begins.

Information from NBA.com and ESPN’s Bobby Marks was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Who Will Win Friday’s Play-In Games?

April 19th, 2024 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

If the Heat and Pelicans were fully healthy entering Friday’s play-in games, they’d likely be considered solid home favorites. Instead, both teams will be without their leading scorers, with Jimmy Butler sidelined for Miami due to an MCL sprain and Zion Williamson on the shelf for New Orleans as a result of a hamstring strain.

The injuries to Butler and Williamson don’t necessarily mean that the Heat and Pelicans won’t win and advance on Friday, but they’ve created a sense that anything could happen in either one of the remaining play-in games.

The Heat are still considered two-point favorites over the Bulls, per BetOnline.ag, which makes sense — Miami got used to playing without Butler this season, going 13-9 in games he missed, and Chicago has plenty of injury issues of its own. Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams are among a handful of Bulls players who are out for the season, while Alex Caruso‘s availability is up in the air due to an ankle injury.

Of course, Butler isn’t the only notable Heat player who will miss Friday’s game. Josh Richardson is out for the season following shoulder surgery and Terry Rozier continues to be affected by a neck injury.

The Heat/Bulls outcome will come down to which team’s healthy players step up in a win-or-go-home situation. Chicago’s starters did just that on Wednesday, with Coby White scoring a career-high 42 points while DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Ayo Dosunmu combined for another 65. If Caruso can’t go, the Bulls will have to lean more heavily on reserves ike Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig, and Javonte Green for defensive purposes to complement those offensive weapons.

The Heat, meanwhile, will be looking for more from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Adebayo had just 10 points in Wednesday’s loss to Philadelphia, and while Herro had 25 points and nine assists, he also missed 18 shots from the floor and turned the ball over five times.

In New Orleans, Williamson is the only player on the injury report, but he’s not the team’s only injury-related concern. Brandon Ingram has been back in action for just two games following a multi-week absence due to a knee injury and hasn’t looked 100% since returning — he didn’t play the final 7:38 of Tuesday’s loss to the Lakers.

The Pelicans have a deep roster featuring a plethora of talented two-way contributors, and they went 5-0 vs. the Kings this season, including a win last Thursday. But if Williamson is out and Ingram is hampered, it could be an uphill battle for New Orleans against a feisty Sacramento team that is currently a 1.5-point favorite, according to BetOnline.ag.

While Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are the stars and both played well on Tuesday vs. Golden State, the Kings are extra dangerous when they’re getting major contributions from players like Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, and Keon Ellis, who combined to score 64 points against the Warriors. Ellis was especially active on defense, racking up three blocks and three steals — Sacramento was +27 during his 39 minutes.

We want to know what you think. Will the Heat and Pelicans hang on at home and give their injured stars a chance to try to make it back before the end of round one? Or will we see a pair of road teams pull off victories on Friday and claim the No. 8 seeds in their respective conferences?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your predictions for Friday’s games!

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Revisiting 2023/24 NBA Over/Under Predictions

April 17th, 2024 at 10:30am CST by Luke Adams

Before the 2023/24 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Celtics (55.5 wins) to the Wizards (24.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the seventh year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three seasons, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record and went 16-14 in each of the next two seasons. Did that winning streak extend to four straight years in ’23/24? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (Over 55.5 wins): ✅ (64-18)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (Under 48.5 wins): ✅ (47-35)
  • New York Knicks (Over 45.5 wins): ✅ (50-32)
  • Brooklyn Nets (Over 37.5 wins): ❌ (32-50)
  • Toronto Raptors (Over 36.5 wins): ❌ (25-57)

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (Over 54.5 wins): ❌ (49-33)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 50.5 wins): ✅ (48-34)
  • Indiana Pacers (Over 38.5 wins): ✅ (47-35)
  • Chicago Bulls (Under 37.5 wins): ❌ (39-43)
  • Detroit Pistons (Over 27.5 wins): ❌ (14-68)

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (Under 46.5 wins): ✅ (46-36)
  • Atlanta Hawks (Under 42.5 wins): ✅ (36-46)
  • Orlando Magic (Over 37.5 wins): ✅ (47-35)
  • Charlotte Hornets (Under 31.5 wins): ✅ (21-61)
  • Washington Wizards (Over 24.5 wins): ❌ (15-67)

Eastern Conference record: 9-6

For a second straight year, our readers exhibited a strong feel for the Southeast division, nailing four of those five picks. That success in the Southeast helped secure a strong overall Eastern Conference record despite big whiffs on teams like the Raptors and Pistons.

Western Conference

Northwest

  • Denver Nuggets (Over 53.5 wins): ✅ (57-25)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (Over 44.5 wins): ✅ (56-26)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (Under 44.5 wins): ❌ (57-25)
  • Utah Jazz (Over 35.5 wins): ❌ (31-51)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (Under 28.5 wins): ✅ (21-61)

Pacific

  • Phoenix Suns (Under 52.5 wins): ✅ (49-33)
  • Golden State Warriors (Over 48.5 wins): ❌ (46-36)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (Over 47.5 wins): ❌ (47-35)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (Under 46.5 wins): ❌ (51-31)
  • Sacramento Kings (Over 44.5 wins): ✅ (46-36)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (Under 46.5 wins): ✅ (27-55)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (Under 44.5 wins): ❌ (49-33)
  • Dallas Mavericks (Under 44.5 wins): ❌ (50-32)
  • Houston Rockets (Over 31.5 wins): ✅ (41-41)
  • San Antonio Spurs (Over 28.5 wins): ❌ (22-60)

Western Conference record: 7-8

Our voters had some bad luck in a few cases, with teams like the Warriors and Lakers falling just shy of their projected win totals. There were also some more glaring misses, including on the Thunder, but those were balanced out with nice calls on the defending champion Nuggets, the rejuvenated Rockets, and injury-plagued teams like the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies.

Overall record: 16-14

For the fourth season in a row, our voters finished above .500 in their over/under picks! That’s a pretty impressive streak, given how unpredictable the NBA can be on a year-to-year basis.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Poll: Who Will Win Wednesday’s Play-In Games?

April 17th, 2024 at 7:11am CST by Luke Adams

When we polled Hoops Rumors readers on Tuesday’s play-in games 24 hours ago, nearly half the respondents predicted victories for both the Lakers and Warriors, with roughly 36.7% forecasting a Pelicans win and only about 13.9% picking both the Lakers and Kings.

But that latter scenario is the one that played out, as the Lakers escaped New Orleans with a narrow victory to secure the Western Conference’s No. 7 seed, while the Kings got some level of revenge for last year’s first-round playoff exit by dispatching Golden State in the No. 9 vs. 10 game.

The Pelicans will now host the Kings in Friday’s do-or-die play-in game for the West’s No. 8 seed, but in the meantime, we have a pair of Eastern Conference play-in games on tap for Wednesday night.

In the early game, the No. 8 Heat will visit Philadelphia and battle the No. 7 Sixers for the right to claim the seventh seed and a first-round matchup with New York.

The stakes are high — while either team would be a significant favorite at home in a play-in game on Friday, losing tonight would result in a best-case scenario of a first-round date with the Celtics, who had the NBA’s best record for nearly the entire season. The Sixers and Heat would presumably rather take their chances with the Knicks.

Both teams have some injuries to deal with entering Wednesday’s game. The 76ers will be missing De’Anthony Melton (back) and Robert Covington (knee), while the Heat will be without Josh Richardson (shoulder) and Terry Rozier (neck).

Sixers center Joel Embiid is listed on the injury report as questionable due to left knee injury recovery, but there’s no doubt he’ll suit up — whether or not he’ll be anywhere near 100% is an open question. Embiid has only played five games since returning from knee surgery, and while he scored at least 30 points in three of those outings, his knee seemed to be bothering him on Friday, forcing him to sit out Sunday’s regular season finale.

If Embiid looks like himself, it bodes well for the Sixers, who have a +10.3 net rating in the big man’s 1,309 minutes on the court this season and went 31-8 in the games he played.

On the other hand, the Heat showed last spring that they’re extremely comfortable playing as a lower seed on the road with their backs against the wall, though it’s worth noting that the Miami team that made it to the NBA Finals did lose its first play-in game. The Heat, whose 24-17 road record this season ranked second among Eastern teams, are currently listed as five-point underdogs, per BetOnline.ag.

In the late game, the No. 9 Bulls are three-point favorites at home against the No. 10 Hawks. It has been an up-and-down season for both teams, who haven’t given us much reason to believe that a deep playoff run is in the cards.

The Bulls had the NBA’s 19th-best offensive rating and 22nd-best defensive rating this season for an overall net rating of -1.7 (20th). They also have a lengthy injury report. Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball, Patrick Williams, and Onuralp Bitim are out due to season-ending injuries, while Julian Phillips (right midfoot sprain) remains unavailable and Andre Drummond (left ankle sprain) and Ayo Dosunmu (right quad contusion) are considered questionable to suit up.

Still, Chicago will have DeMar DeRozan, Coby White, and Nikola Vucevic available to provide offensive firepower, while defensive ace Alex Caruso attempts to slow down Atlanta’s star backcourt.

Like Embiid in Philadelphia, Hawks leading scorer Trae Young only recently returned from a lengthy injury absence, appearing in the team’s final three regular season games after missing the previous 23 due to hand surgery. If he’s not in peak form, more offensive responsibilities will fall to fellow guards Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

The Hawks had the NBA’s 12th-best offense this season but ranked just 27th on defense and finished behind the Bulls in overall net rating, with a -2.0 mark (No. 21). They also have some key injury absences of their own, with Jalen Johnson (right ankle sprain), Onyeka Okongwu (left big toe sprain), and Saddiq Bey (torn ACL) all sidelined.

Given that the two teams look relatively evenly matched, it’s possible home-court advantage could be the difference for the Bulls. The Hawks went just 15-26 on the road this season.

We want to know what you think. Will it be the Sixers or Heat clinching their playoff berth today? Will it be the end of the road for the Bulls or the Hawks?

Make your Eastern Conference play-in picks in the poll below, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

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