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2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Pacific Division

September 17th, 2024 at 7:57am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll wrap up our series today with the Pacific Division…

Phoenix Suns

Sacramento Kings

Golden State Warriors

Los Angeles Lakers

Los Angeles Clippers

Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

Southeast

  • Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)

Northwest

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): Over (68.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): Over (65.2%)
  • Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
  • Utah Jazz (29.5 wins): Under (60.1%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (22.5 wins): Under (54.7%)

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (50.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): Under (51.6%)
  • Indiana Pacers (47.5 wins): Over (57.2%)
  • Chicago Bulls (28.5 wins): Under (61.9%)
  • Detroit Pistons (24.5 wins): Over (60.2%)
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NBA 2024 Offseason Check-In: Portland Trail Blazers

September 16th, 2024 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is checking in on the 2024 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, recapping the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll take a look at each team’s offseason moves and consider what might still be coming before the regular season begins. Today, we’re focusing on the Portland Trail Blazers.

Free agent signings

  • Devonte’ Graham: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed. Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Henri Drell: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed (Exhibit 10). Signed using minimum salary exception.

Trades

  • Acquired the Timberwolves’ 2027 second-round pick; either the Pacers’ or Wizards’ 2029 second-round pick (whichever is least favorable); and the Knicks’ 2030 second-round pick from the Knicks in exchange for the draft rights to Tyler Kolek (No. 34 pick).
  • Acquired the draft rights to Quinten Post (No. 52 pick) and cash from the Thunder in exchange for the draft rights to Oso Ighodaro (No. 40 pick).
  • Acquired cash from the Warriors in exchange for the draft rights to Quinten Post (No. 52 pick).
  • Acquired Deni Avdija in exchange for Malcolm Brogdon; the draft rights to Carlton Carrington (No. 14 pick); either the Trail Blazers’, Celtics’, or Bucks’ 2029 first-round pick (whichever is second-most favorable); the Warriors’ 2028 second-round pick; and the Trail Blazers’ 2030 second-round pick.

Draft picks

  • 1-7: Donovan Clingan
    • Signed to rookie scale contract (four years, $31,085,018).

Two-way signings

Departed/unsigned free agents

Other moves

Salary cap situation

  • Operating over the cap ($140.6MM) and below the luxury tax line ($170.8MM).
  • Carrying approximately $167.1MM in salary.
  • No hard cap.
  • Full mid-level, bi-annual exceptions available.
  • Three traded player exceptions available (largest worth $8,778,377).
    • Note: The $8,778,377 exception expires on 9/27. The second-largest TPE is worth $6,875,000.

The offseason so far

After finishing the 2023/24 season with a 21-61 record, worst in the Western Conference, the Trail Blazers entered the offseason projecting to be a taxpayer in ’24/25, which wasn’t exactly ideal for a team still far away from contention.

As a result, Portland had two primary goals this summer: First, continue adding young talent to its core. And second, shed enough salary to get under the tax line and avoid paying a premium for a roster almost certain to finish in lottery territory again.

Armed with the Nos. 7, 14, 34, and 40 picks in the 2024 draft, the Trail Blazers were well positioned to add more prospects to their roster, but opted against keeping all of those draft assets, recognizing they could use one of those lottery picks to help address both of their offseason goals. Rather than hanging onto the No. 14 pick, Portland packaged it with Malcolm Brogdon, a future first-rounder, and a pair of second-round picks to acquire Deni Avdija from the Wizards.

While it may look like a significant price to pay for Avdija, Brogdon didn’t have a long-term place in a crowded Portland backcourt, this year’s draft class was considered weak, and the future first-round pick the Blazers surrendered is just a second-most favorable pick in 2029, meaning they’ll still hold a more favorable first-rounder in the spring of ’29.

Plus, even though Avdija is a four-year veteran, he just turned 23 years old this year and is on a team-friendly contract that he signed last fall prior to an impressive breakout season in 2023/24. The four-year, $55MM deal starts at about $15.6MM and descends from there, making it a relative bargain for a player who posted career highs in PPG (14.7), RPG (7.2), APG (3.8), FG% (.506), and 3PT% (.374) last season. The former Wizard immediately becomes a long-term building block in Portland.

The trade also ensured the Blazers will stay out of tax territory in 2024/25. Brogdon’s $22.5MM expiring contract exceeds Avdija’s ’24/25 cap charge by nearly $7MM, and the No. 14 pick would’ve received a salary just shy of $4.5MM, so Portland essentially trimmed eight figures worth of salary in the transaction.

Besides acquiring Avdija, the only other major addition the Blazers made this offseason was drafting center Donovan Clingan with the No. 7 overall pick in June.

It was a somewhat curious choice, given that Portland has no shortage of centers already under contract (Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams, Duop Reath). But the Blazers are still early enough in their rebuild to favor a “best player available” approach to the lottery, and Clingan – who was widely considered a possible top-three pick leading up to draft night – presumably fit that bill for them.

It’s not as if the Blazers already have a star at the position either. Ayton is a former No. 1 overall pick, but he has been inconsistent, isn’t an elite rim protector, and didn’t cement his place as the long-term answer in the middle during his first year in Portland. Williams, meanwhile, missed most of last season due to knee surgery, and Reath projects as more of a second or third option on the depth chart.

Interestingly, after trading away the 14th overall pick in the draft, the Blazers also opted not to use either No. 34, which they traded to New York for three future second-rounders, or No. 40, which they sold for cash.

I was a little surprised that a rebuilding and cost-conscious Portland team didn’t hang onto at least one of those selections, which would’ve allowed them to add another rookie on the cheap. But the front office must feel as if there are already enough projects on the roster for the coaching staff to develop — six Blazers players, including lottery picks Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, were selected in either the 2022 or 2023 draft.

Up next

The Blazers’ logjam at center makes them a logical candidate for a preseason or in-season trade. Ayton would be difficult to move due to his maximum-salary contract, but Williams is earning around the mid-level and could be an intriguing target if he’s able to show he’s back to 100% health.

The situation in the backcourt may not be best described as a “logjam,” but the Blazers are clearly hoping that Henderson and Sharpe will be their starting guards of the future. In the present, Anfernee Simons has the stronger résumé and probably wouldn’t be thrilled if he finds himself out of the starting five. That’s not to say that finding a taker for Simons is a top priority in the short term (there should be plenty of playing time to go around for all three guards), but it wouldn’t be surprising if his name pops up in trade rumors prior to February’s deadline.

Simons, Ayton, and Williams are all eligible for veteran extensions up until October 21, but are unlikely candidates to sign new contracts by that point — they each have two years left on their current deals, so if the Blazers do decide one or more of them are keepers, they could try to work out longer-term contracts during the 2025 offseason.

Jabari Walker is the least heralded but perhaps most viable extension candidate of the bunch. He’s entering the final year of his minimum-salary contract after averaging 8.9 points and 7.1 rebounds per game in a part-time role (23.6 MPG) last season.

As for the Blazers’ projected regular season roster, they’re currently carrying 14 players on guaranteed standard contracts and three on two-way deals, so barring trades, only the 15th standard spot looks up for grabs. Dalano Banton is probably the favorite for that last opening, with camp invitee Devonte’ Graham also in the mix.

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Community Shootaround: Heat’s 2024 Offseason

September 15th, 2024 at 6:23pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Just one year removed from another Finals appearance, the Heat had a major postseason letdown in 2023/24.

With All-NBA swingman Jimmy Butler and recently acquired starting point guard Terry Rozier both out for the entirety of their first-round series against the No. 1-seeded Celtics, Miami fell in five quick games.

But even before that, the Heat had a somewhat disappointing regular season run. Despite making their second NBA Finals — and third Eastern Conference Finals — in four seasons behind the play of All-Stars Butler and Bam Adebayo, the club followed that 2023 run up by once again finishing with the conference’s No. 8 seed with a roster hit hard by injuries and featuring several one-way players

Heading into the 2024 offseason, it seemed clear that the club needed to shore up its perimeter and frontcourt defense, and perhaps take a flier on some talented young free agents in need of more playing time in a competitive atmosphere.

Beyond cost-effective free agent signings for the capped-out Heat, a trade seemed like another possibility well worth exploring this offseason. The club has plenty of intriguing players like former Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro and sharpshooter Duncan Robinson who, along with future draft picks, could conceivably be packaged together for premium veteran talent.

Instead, Miami – affected by a lack of cap flexibility – seems set to bank on internal improvement this year. Over the summer, the Heat mostly re-signed veteran incumbents, including power forward Kevin Love, center Thomas Bryant and combo forward Haywood Highsmith. The team did add some bench scoring help in the form of longtime NBA shooting guard Alec Burks on a veteran’s minimum deal. Miami also locked in Adebayo to a three-year, $165.3MM maximum contract extension.

In this year’s draft, Miami made a move to address its frontcourt athleticism, selecting former All-Big Ten Second Team Indiana 7-footer Kel’el Ware with the No. 15 overall pick. As part of a three-team trade, the Heat also acquired the draft rights to former All-Pac-12 Arizona shooting guard Pelle Larsson.

Most troublingly, however, Miami saw versatile 3-and-D small forward Caleb Martin depart in free agency for what he considered to be a better contending opportunity with the refurbished Sixers.

The Heat will hope that younger players like All-Rookie First Team swingman Jaime Jaquez Jr., Adebayo, Herro and Robinson can continue to improve, older players like Butler, Rozier and Love and stay healthy, and that Ware can help spell Adebayo sooner rather than later.

Butler has a $52.4MM player option for 2025/26, and could enter free agency if he believes he could earn more long-term security or a better title opportunity elsewhere. As such, his situation is being closely watched by rival squads, including the Warriors, who could look to pounce on Butler in the trade market if Miami’s season heads south.

For years, the Heat have been able to save their best stuff for the playoffs. With Butler a frequent injury question mark at age 35 and questionable depth surrounding the team’s two stars, it doesn’t seem particularly feasible that Miami’s current personnel will be enough to overcome even the Knicks or Sixers this year, let alone Boston.

We want to hear from you! Will the Heat be able to rise up the ranks of the East this season? Can the team as is have more playoff success in 2025 than it did in 2024? Should the squad look to make a win-now trade during the season?

Weigh in below via our comments section.

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Checking In On Early 2024/25 Roster Battles

September 14th, 2024 at 11:03am CST by Tristan Tucker

Each year, a handful of teams prefer to bring in players to battle it out for the last remaining spots on a given roster. Let’s take a look at a few training camp battles that are already brewing ahead of October.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have been busy in recent weeks, filling out their training camp roster with proven talent. The Bulls have 15 players on standard contracts, but Onuralp Bitim‘s deal is non-guaranteed. In addition, Chicago has two open two-way slots. The Bulls have four players — Talen Horton-Tucker, Kenneth Lofton Jr., E.J. Liddell and Marcus Domask — signed to training camp deals.

Exhibit 10 contracts can be converted to two-way contracts at any time. Horton-Tucker is the only player of that batch who is ineligible for a two-way contract, since he is at five years of NBA service. That gives the Bulls a handful of options for their opening night roster.

In essence, Bitim and Horton-Tucker seem to be battling it out for the Bulls’ 15th roster spot, while Lofton, Liddell and Domask all appear to be candidates for the team’s open two-way slots. Of course, if the Bulls opt to move on from Bitim on a standard deal, they could attempt to re-sign him to a two-way deal. They could also just carry 14 players on the standard roster to begin the year.

New York Knicks

As we detailed Saturday morning, Landry Shamet and Chuma Okeke appear to be battling for the Knicks’ 15th roster spot. Of course, there’s no guarantee that either player will make the roster, but each has a decent case to make the team.

Shamet is a proven three-point shooter while Okeke is a versatile forward who is a previous 16th overall pick. The Knicks will likely assess in training camp what their biggest need is and keep the player who best fits that niche heading into the year.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have a handful of players on non-guaranteed or partially contracts heading into the season. However, previous reporting seems to indicate that the team’s final roster spot will come down to either Kendall Brown or Cole Swider.

Brown is an athletic forward who was the 48th overall pick in the 2022 draft. He has spent the last two seasons with the Pacers but has also appeared in just 21 total games. Meanwhile, the Pacers signed Swider to a training camp contract this offseason that doesn’t include Exhibit 10 language. Swider is a known three-point shooter who spent last season with the Heat and helped Miami to a summer league championship this offseason.

James Wiseman and James Johnson each have partially guaranteed salaries with the Pacers.

The others

Other teams across the league are poised to either carry just 14 players on standard deals to begin the year or already have their 15-man rosters determined. However, some of those teams have unsettled two-way roster slots.

The Heat have their standard roster filled out, but summer standout Isaiah Stevens is on an Exhibit 10 deal. It seems like Stevens will battle Dru Smith — who currently holds a two-way deal — outright for that spot.

The Hornets have Moussa Diabate and KJ Simpson on two-way deals but have another spot open. Keyontae Johnson could be an option for that spot. Charlotte also has a potential opening on the 15-man roster, with four players signed to Exhibit 10 deals and another agreed to.

The Wizards also have an open two-way slot. Washington signed Leaky Black, Kira Lewis and Jaylen Nowell to Exhibit 10 contracts, but only Black is eligible for a two-way deal. The Wizards also have 15 players on guaranteed contracts, with Jared Butler and his non-guaranteed deal possibly on the outside looking in unless they make a trade.

The Clippers have RayJ Dennis, Kai Jones and Elijah Harkless signed to Exhibit 10 deals. The team also has an agreement with Kevon Harris for another such spot. With only Jordan Miller and Trentyn Flowers on two-way contracts, all of Dennis, Jones, Harkless and Harris are eligible for the team’s third.

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Free Agents Signed After Sunday Won’t Become Trade-Eligible On December 15

September 13th, 2024 at 9:52pm CST by Luke Adams

Unless he’s part of a sign-and-trade deal, an NBA free agent who signs a new contract can’t be traded immediately. The Collective Bargaining Agreement states that a newly signed free agent is ineligible to be traded until December 15 or until he’s been under contract for three months, whichever comes later.

Based on that rule, the majority of the free agents who signed new contracts in July, August, and the first half of September will become trade-eligible on December 15 (a smaller group of free agents who met certain specific criteria won’t become trade-eligible until January 15).

By our count, at least 87 players are currently on track to become eligible to be moved on December 15. That doesn’t take into account any players signed to Exhibit 10 contracts who might earn regular season roster spots, since they’re not included on our list (they’ll be added if they haven’t been waived by opening night).

However, with the exception of camp invitees who unexpectedly stick around for the regular season, that list won’t continue to expand to include any additional names after Sunday, which will be exactly three months away from December 15. A free agent who signs a new contract after September 15 will remain trade-eligible for a full three months, rather than becoming trade-eligible on December 15.

For instance, a player who signs on September 22 would become eligible to be dealt on December 22; one who signs on October 4 would become trade-eligible on January 4, and so on.

November 6 is an important date in this discussion, since this season’s trade deadline will land on February 6. A player who signs a free agent contract on November 7 or later will be ineligible to be dealt during the 2024/25 season.

Once the season begins next month and we have a better sense of which players signed after Sept. 15 have earned spots on regular season rosters, we’ll publish a new list of those players’ trade eligibility dates to complement our December 15 and January 15 round-ups.

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2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division

September 13th, 2024 at 7:46am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll continue our series today with the Central Division…

Milwaukee Bucks

Cleveland Cavaliers

Indiana Pacers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

Southeast

  • Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)

Northwest

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): Over (68.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): Over (65.2%)
  • Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
  • Utah Jazz (29.5 wins): Under (60.1%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (22.5 wins): Under (54.7%)
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NBA 2024 Offseason Check-In: Orlando Magic

September 12th, 2024 at 8:12pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is checking in on the 2024 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, recapping the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll take a look at each team’s offseason moves and consider what might still be coming before the regular season begins. Today, we’re focusing on the Orlando Magic.

Free agent signings

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Three years, $66,000,000. Third-year player option. Signed using cap room.
  • Goga Bitadze: Three years, $25,000,000. Re-signed using Early Bird rights.
  • Moritz Wagner: Two years, $22,000,000. Second-year team option. Re-signed using Bird rights. Waived right to veto trade.
  • Gary Harris: Two years, $15,000,000. Second-year team option. Re-signed using Bird rights. Waived right to veto trade.
  • Cory Joseph: Two years, minimum salary ($6,772,731). Second-year team option. Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Jarrett Culver: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed (Exhibit 10). Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Myron Gardner: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed (Exhibit 10). Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Tre Scott: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed (Exhibit 10). Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Jalen Slawson: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed (Exhibit 10). Signed using minimum salary exception.

Trades

  • Acquired the right to swap their own 2030 second-round pick with the Pelicans’ 2030 second-round pick and the right to swap their own 2031 second-round pick with the Pelicans’ 2031 second-round pick from the Pelicans in exchange for the draft rights to Antonio Reeves (No. 47 pick).

Draft picks

  • 1-18: Tristan Da Silva
    • Signed to rookie scale contract (four years, $17,567,626).

Two-way signings

Departed/unsigned free agents

Other moves

  • Signed Franz Wagner to a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension that begins in 2025/26. Projected value of $224,238,150 (starting at 25% of the cap). Projected value can increase to $246,661,965 (27.5% of the cap) or $269,085,780 (30% of the cap) if Wagner meets Rose Rule performance criteria. Includes 15% trade kicker.
  • Renegotiated and extended Jonathan Isaac‘s one-year, $17.4MM contract. Increased 2024/25 salary by $7.6MM to $25MM. Added four years, $59,000,000. Partially guaranteed in 2026/27 ($8MM). Non-guaranteed in 2027/28 and ’28/29.

Salary cap situation

  • Went below the cap to use room.
  • Now operating over the cap ($140.6MM) and below the luxury tax line ($170.8MM).
  • Carrying approximately $150.4MM in salary.
  • No hard cap.
  • Full room exception ($8MM) available.

The offseason so far

For the past several years, the Magic have built their roster patiently and incrementally, frequently re-signing their own veteran free agents to flexible, short-term deals and adding young talent through the draft while forgoing major splashes on the trade and free agent markets.

In some ways, they stuck to that approach again this offseason. Role players Goga Bitadze, Moritz Wagner, and Gary Harris all got new deals as free agents, with Wagner and Harris signing what have become Orlando specials: two-year contracts with strong first-year guaranteed salaries and team options on the second year.

I’m not sure there was another team out there prepared to give Wagner $11MM or Harris $7.5MM for the 2024/25 season, but Orlando, operating far below the luxury tax line, can comfortably afford those salaries. And the fact that the Magic were willing to go a bit higher than other teams might have earned them a couple key concessions — not only do both contracts have second-year team options, but both players agreed to waive their right to veto a trade, so if the Magic have the opportunity to make an in-season deal for a higher-salary player, Wagner and/or Harris could be used for matching purposes.

Bitadze’s deal, meanwhile, is guaranteed for three seasons, signaling his value in a free agent class that lacked many reliable options at center beyond Nic Claxton and Isaiah Hartenstein. Bitadze remains somewhat underrated. He’s entering his age-25 season, made 33 starts for a playoff team, and hit a career-high 60.3% of his field goals while blocking 1.2 shots in just 15.4 minutes per game. With Wendell Carter and Wagner also in the mix at center, the Magic have three solid – if unspectacular – options in the middle.

The two most lucrative contracts the Magic handed out this summer were to players who were already under contract for 2024/25. As a result of their extensions, Franz Wagner and Jonathan Isaac are now under team control through 2030 and 2029, respectively.

The Wagner investment (a projected $224MM+ over five years, beginning in 2025/26) is a bit of a tough pill to swallow for a player who has never averaged 20 points per game, made 28.1% of his three-pointers last season, and put up a dud in Game 7 of the first-round playoff loss to Cleveland (six points on 1-of-15 shooting). That deal is more about what the Magic believe the 23-year-old will become than what he is right now. Still, I’d feel a little better about it if Orlando could have gotten Wagner to agree to even a Desmond Bane-type contract, a little below the max.

The Isaac renegotiation and extension ($84MM in total money over the next five seasons) actually might be the better value of the two deals. That may sound odd on the surface, given that the forward averaged just 15.8 minutes per game in 58 appearances last season. But it was his first full year back after missing most of three seasons due to knee issues, and when he’s healthy, Isaac is one of the league’s most impactful defensive players.

The Magic had a +10.9 net rating when Isaac was on the court last season, compared to a -0.3 mark when he sat. Plus, his new contract – which dips to around $15MM annually beginning in 2025 – is only fully guaranteed for the next two years, with a partial guarantee in 2026/27 and non-guaranteed salaries in the final two seasons.

Besides re-signing their own players, the Magic continued to add young talent to their roster in the draft. This year’s No. 18 selection was Orlando’s lowest top pick since 2012, so the team likely won’t count on Tristan Da Silva to play a significant role as a rookie. Still, the former Colorado forward, who made 39.5% of his three-pointers over his last two college seasons, makes sense on a roster that finished dead-last among 30 NBA teams in three-pointers made in 2023/24.

The summer of 2024 deviated from the Magic’s recent offseasons in one crucial way. After winning 47 games, the team was ready to take a bigger swing by adding a top veteran free agent to its young core. Orlando made use of its cap room to land Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a three-and-D wing who has been a starter for two separate champions teams (the 2020 Lakers and 2023 Nuggets) in the past five seasons.

A 40.6% three-point shooter over the past four years, Caldwell-Pope should provide much-needed floor spacing for the Magic while further fortifying a defense that ranked third in the NBA last season. Perhaps just as importantly, he and fellow newcomer Cory Joseph will join Harris as the only players on Orlando’s roster who have won an NBA postseason series.

The Magic’s guaranteed deal with Joseph was a little surprising, given that he was waived by Golden State halfway through the 2023/24 season and didn’t find a job down the stretch. But like Caldwell-Pope, he has championship experience – having won a title with the Spurs in 2014 – and will provide veteran leadership in the locker room.

I had thought Orlando might target a point guard capable of playing a larger on-court role, especially with Markelle Fultz and secondary play-maker Joe Ingles departing in free agency. But the Magic appear set to rely on former No. 6 overall pick Anthony Black to take on increased responsibilities alongside ball-handlers like Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Wagner, and rising star forward Paolo Banchero.

Up next

The Magic’s projected 15-man regular season roster looks full, but the team does have a pair of two-way spots open, with Trevelin Queen the only player currently on a two-way deal in Orlando. Non-guaranteed signees like Mac McClung, Jalen Slawson, Tre Scott, and Myron Gardner could end up competing for those spots; the club could also keep an eye on the waiver wire to see if any intriguing targets shake loose before opening night.

It’s worth noting that the Magic are operating about $20MM below the luxury tax line. Few NBA teams have that sort of financial flexibility at this point — only the Pistons, Jazz, and Spurs have smaller team salaries for 2024/25. That could make Orlando a popular trade partner for clubs looking to shed a little salary, though a deal along those lines is more likely to materialize during the season than in the preseason.

Two Magic rotation players are eligible for extensions up until October 21 and both are interesting cases. We’ll start with Jalen Suggs, a former No. 5 overall pick who is up for a rookie scale extension.

Unlike Wagner, Suggs won’t receive a maximum-salary offer, but after a season in which he knocked down 39.7% of his three-pointers and earned All-Defensive second team honors, the 23-year-old’s stock is on the rise and an extension won’t come cheap.

In the year before he signed a five-year, $131MM rookie scale extension with Minnesota, Jaden McDaniels averaged 12.1 PPG with a .398 3PT% and excellent defense. It’s safe to assume Suggs’ representatives will bring up that deal in negotiations with Orlando and make the case that Suggs (12.6 PPG, .397 3PT%, excellent defense) deserves a similar payday, or even a larger one, given his additional offensive responsibilities.

Carter will become eligible for a veteran extension on October 1, giving Orlando a three-week window to get something done. He still has a couple years left on his current contract, so if the two sides don’t work something out this offseason, they’ll have another chance in 2025.

As outlined above, Orlando has no shortage of options at center, but Carter – a solid defender who can stretch the floor – is the best of the bunch and has been a coveted target for teams in need of a big man (including the Pelicans). If the Magic can lock him up at a fair price, I expect they’ll do so, but it will likely take a significant bump on his current contract, which will pay him $22.8MM over the next two seasons. The Magic would be limited to offering him a starting salary worth up to 140% of next season’s estimated average salary.

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2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Northwest Division

September 11th, 2024 at 9:33am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll continue our series today with the Northwest Division…

Oklahoma City Thunder

Minnesota Timberwolves

Denver Nuggets

Utah Jazz

Portland Trail Blazers

Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

Southeast

  • Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
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Checking In On Notable Remaining Free Agents

September 10th, 2024 at 12:23pm CST by Luke Adams

Nearly two-and-a-half months after the 2024 free agent period opened, 48 of the 50 players who showed up on our list of this summer’s top 50 FAs have signed new contracts.

Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro, the only restricted free agent remaining on the market, is easily the top player left from our top-50 list, having come in at No. 20. As we wrote at the time, Okoro’s age (23) and defensive ability make him an intriguing option, but he certainly doesn’t come without risk:

“Okoro has flashed real three-and-D upside but has never contributed enough offensively to become an above-average starter. This past season was his best, as he bumped his 3PT% up to 39.1%, but he’s still not shooting all that much (3.1 three-point attempts per game) and his dud of a postseason (5.5 PPG on .357/.257/.778 shooting) did nothing to boost his stock heading into the offseason.”

When we asked over the weekend how Okoro’s free agency will resolve, approximately 60% of our poll respondents predicted that he’d eventually accept his $11.8MM qualifying offer, which would line him up to return to the market as an unrestricted free agent in 2025.

The only other unsigned player on our top-50 list is former No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, who ranked 43rd. When I first previewed the point guard free agent class in a Front Office article last May, I said that Fultz’s value was difficult to pin down and that I wouldn’t be surprised if he returned to the Magic on a deal in the $10-15MM range or if he ended up settling for the veteran’s minimum. Clearly, the latter scenario is the more likely outcome at this point.

Here’s part of what we wrote about Fultz in our top-50 breakdown:

“Injuries have limited him to 234 total regular season games since he was drafted in 2017, but his performance in 2022/23 as Orlando’s starting point guard was legitimately impressive (14.0 PPG, 5.7 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG, .514 FG%). Unfortunately, he took a step back this past season in terms of both availability and production, and between his injury history and his shortcomings as a shooter, it’s unclear how popular he’ll be on the open market.”

I’d still be surprised if Fultz doesn’t end up on an NBA roster in 2024/25. If you don’t need to rely him to stay healthy and play a major role, he’s a nice option to have off the bench as a change of pace. But it doesn’t bode well for him that he has yet to find a new home.

Here are some other free agents who didn’t make our top 50 but who could receive consideration from NBA teams before the season begins:

Guards

Outside of Fultz, the point guard market looks pretty bare, but Dennis Smith Jr. is a player with a similar skill set (strong defense; not much of a shooter) who is still seeking a home.

Jacob Gilyard would make sense for a team looking to sign a point guard to a two-way deal. Javon Freeman-Liberty and Lester Quinones are among the other youngsters who could warrant a look. Veterans like Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith, and Ryan Arcidiacono are also available but don’t have the appeal they once did.

A team seeking shooting help should take a long look at Landry Shamet, who is coming off a down year but made 38.8% of 5.2 three-point attempts per game across five seasons from 2018-23.

Other intriguing names still on the market include Victor Oladipo, James Bouknight, and Joshua Primo. A two-time All-Star, Oladipo hasn’t been able to get healthy enough to contribute positive minutes in recent years. Bouknight and Primo are former lottery picks, but Bouknight didn’t establish himself as a reliable rotation player during his three years in Charlotte and Primo has had trouble finding consistent work since being accused of exposing himself to women in San Antonio.

Wings

Jae Crowder, Robert Covington, and Wesley Matthews were once highly coveted three-and-D wings, but they’ve lost a step since their prime years. That’s probably true of Justin Holiday and Reggie Bullock too. All five of those guys are at least 33 years old.

Doug McDermott, who will turn 33 during the 2024/25 season, has long been one of the NBA’s best outside shooters (career .410 3PT%), but his defensive shortcomings have made him a little-used specialist — his 14.1 minutes per game last season represented his lowest mark since his rookie year in ’14/15. Danuel House and Troy Brown are among the other unsigned wings who saw their playing time dip last season.

I thought Oshae Brissett would have an easier time finding work after he declined his player option with the Celtics. He wasn’t great in a limited role last season, but he’s still just 26 years old and has shown promise in the past. Nassir Little is another player coming off a down year who is still young (24) and flashed upside in previous seasons.

Eugene Omoruyi, Lamar Stevens, Kevin Knox, and T.J. Warren are a few more of the wings still seeking contracts.

Bigs

A team in the market for a backup center still has a few veterans to choose from, including JaVale McGee, Bismack Biyombo, Robin Lopez, and Boban Marjanovic.

Those are the safe options. A club looking for more upside might want to take a shot on Montrezl Harrell, who is now over a year removed from a torn ACL, or Moses Brown, an athletic big man who has played for six different teams before his 25th birthday.

Veteran power forwards like Thaddeus Young and Danilo Gallinari may be nearing the end of the road. Gallinari, at least, has expressed interest in playing one more season.

The best power forward still on the market is probably Marcus Morris, who played a major role (65 starts, 28.1 MPG) for the Clippers just two seasons ago and made 40.3% of his three-pointers for Philadelphia and Cleveland in 2023/24.

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NBA 2024 Offseason Check-In: Phoenix Suns

September 9th, 2024 at 4:46pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is checking in on the 2024 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, recapping the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll take a look at each team’s offseason moves and consider what might still be coming before the regular season begins. Today, we’re focusing on the Phoenix Suns.

Free agent signings

  • Royce O’Neale: Four years, $42,000,000. Includes an additional $2MM in unlikely incentives. Re-signed using Bird rights.
  • Josh Okogie: Two years, $16,000,000. Second year non-guaranteed. Re-signed using Bird rights.
  • Bol Bol: One year, minimum salary. Re-signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Tyus Jones: One year, minimum salary. Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Damion Lee: One year, minimum salary. Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Monte Morris: One year, minimum salary. Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Mason Plumlee: One year, minimum salary. Signed using minimum salary exception.

Trades

  • Acquired the draft rights to Ryan Dunn (No. 28 pick), the No. 56 pick in the 2024 draft, the Nuggets’ 2026 second-round pick, and the Nuggets’ 2031 second-round pick from the Nuggets in exchange for the draft rights to DaRon Holmes (No. 22 pick).
  • Acquired the draft rights to Oso Ighodaro (No. 40 pick) from the Knicks in exchange for the draft rights to Kevin McCullar (No. 56 pick) and the Celtics’ 2028 second-round pick (top-45 protected).
  • Acquired E.J. Liddell from the Hawks in exchange for David Roddy.
    • Note: Liddell was subsequently waived.

Draft picks

  • 1-28: Ryan Dunn
    • Signed to rookie scale contract (four years, $12,998,353).
  • 2-40: Oso Ighodaro
    • Signed to four-year, minimum salary contract ($7,895,796). First two years guaranteed. Third year partially guaranteed ($250K). Fourth-year team option.

Two-way signings

Departed/unsigned free agents

Other moves

Salary cap situation

  • Operating over the cap ($140.6MM), over the luxury tax line ($170.8MM), and above the second tax apron ($188.9MM).
  • Carrying approximately $219.9MM in salary.
  • No hard cap.
  • No form of mid-level or bi-annual exception available.
  • One traded player exception available (worth $726,547).
  • One traded player exception frozen/unavailable (worth $1,119,563).

The offseason so far

The Suns’ first season with their “big three” of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal was a disappointing one. Although Phoenix compiled 49 wins, injuries limited the time the three stars spent on the court together – the full trio appeared in just 41 of 82 regular season contests – and the team didn’t win a single playoff game, having been swept out of the first round by Minnesota.

Despite questions about their fit together and their respective injury histories, the Suns weren’t about to give up on their big three so soon. General manager James Jones and team owner Mat Ishbia shot down trade rumors involving Durant, Booker, and Beal this offseason as the front office focused on making changes around those stars, rather than breaking them up.

Those changes began on the sidelines, where Phoenix opted to move on from head coach Frank Vogel less than one year after signing him to a five-year contract worth a reported $31MM. No team embarking on a coaching search this spring moved faster than the Suns, who zeroed in on Mike Budenholzer and announced his hiring less than 48 hours after confirming Vogel’s dismissal.

The Suns have first-hand familiarity with Budenholzer’s championship pedigree, having fallen to his Bucks in the 2021 NBA Finals. They clearly believe he’s the right man to take the Suns to similar heights — after making him the sole focus of their search, they signed him to a five-year contract reportedly worth in excess of $50MM.

With Booker, Durant, Beal, and Jusuf Nurkic set to earn nearly $169MM combined in 2024/25, the Suns were always going to be operating over the second tax apron ($188.9MM), which meant they’d have limited resources to upgrade their roster via free agency or trade. As a result, their goals in addressing the roster were threefold:

  1. Re-sign key role players Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale, since they’d have no means to replace them if they departed as free agents.
  2. Add inexpensive young talent in the draft.
  3. Make savvy minimum-salary veteran signings.

The offseason was a success on all three fronts.

While you can quibble with the money or the term the Suns committed to Allen (four years, $70MM) or O’Neale (four years, $42MM), losing either player wasn’t a viable option. The team badly needs Allen’s shooting and O’Neale’s defense to complement its stars. Given its lack of leverage in those negotiations, Phoenix is fortunate the final numbers on the contracts don’t look worse.

The Suns were active on draft night, moving six spots down in the first round and 16 spots up in the second. The team ended up coming away with two players it was reportedly high on – forwards Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodaro – while adding to its depleted stash of future draft picks in the process.

In free agency, the Suns brought back a couple of their own free agents (Bol Bol and Damion Lee) on minimum-salary contracts but did their best work with outside targets, landing center Mason Plumlee and point guards Tyus Jones and Monte Morris. I expected all three players, particularly Jones, to sign for more than the veteran’s minimum, so they look like bargains to me. And Jones and Morris are exactly the type of players Phoenix needed — ball-handling guards who take extremely good care of the ball.

The one signing that looks questionable from a value perspective is Josh Okogie, who received a two-year, $16MM contract that is fully guaranteed for the first year. Giving Okogie an $8.25MM salary for 2024/25 allows the Suns to treat him as a walking trade exception, but without the ability to aggregate his salary with another player’s or take back more than $8.25MM in a trade involving him, it remains to be seen how useful that will be.

Okogie probably doesn’t contribute enough on offense to warrant that $8MM+ salary based solely on his play on the court. Of course, as long as Ishbia is willing to pay the substantial excess tax penalties that come with giving Okogie that $8.25MM salary instead of a minimum contract, there’s no real downside for the Suns, since the deal doesn’t hamstring them in any other ways.

But as Phoenix showed when it waived and stretched Nassir Little‘s and E.J. Liddell‘s remaining salary ahead of the August 31 stretch provision deadline, Ishbia’s pockets aren’t bottomless. The Little move, in particular, will have a long-term impact — he’ll count against the books for $3.1MM through the 2030/31 season.

Up next

After waiving Little and Liddell, the Suns have 14 players on guaranteed contracts and three players on two-way deals. While two-way changes are always possible leading up to opening night, I’m skeptical Phoenix will be eager to add a 15th man to the standard roster. Keeping that spot open to start the season would allow the team to assess its options, save some money, and move quickly in the event that a specific position is hit hard by injuries during the season.

Durant and Nurkic are the two players on the roster eligible for extensions up until October 21, but I wouldn’t expect extending Nurkic – who has two years and $37.5MM left on his existing contract – to be a top preseason priority for the Suns. While Nurkic is Phoenix’s starting center for now, he’s not a lock to still be on the roster beyond his current deal, or even until the end of it.

Durant is a more likely extension candidate. Based on his contract situation (two years left) and the Over-38 rule that prevents him from tacking on two new years, he’s essentially eligible for a slightly less lucrative version of the Stephen Curry deal. A one-year extension for Durant would be worth a projected $59.5MM.

The Suns and Durant don’t have the long history of success together that the Warriors and Curry have, so it remains to be seen whether they’ll be as eager to add another year to their agreement. If it doesn’t get done before opening night, the two sides would have another chance to negotiate an extension next offseason. However, putting off those talks could leave the door open for those trade rumors that popped up earlier this offseason to resurface by February’s deadline — especially if the Suns struggle in the first half.

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