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Checking In On NBA’s Offseason Coaching Changes

July 12th, 2021 at 12:40pm CST by Luke Adams

With the NBA draft just two-and-a-half weeks away, a pair of teams are still without a head coach.

The Wizards, who opted not to bring back Scott Brooks after he spent five years at the helm in D.C., were said to be conducting second interviews with finalists last week, meaning they should be close to making a decision. Wes Unseld Jr., Darvin Ham, and Charles Lee are among the team’s remaining candidates.

The other team with a vacancy is New Orleans. Having parted ways with Stan Van Gundy after just one season, the Pelicans are seeking a head coach who can better connect with their young players, including star forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Lee, a finalist for the Washington job, is also still in the mix for the Pelicans’ position too, with Willie Green and Fred Vinson among the other candidates receiving serious consideration.

Five other teams made coaching changes since the regular season ended. The details on those completed searches are as follows:

  • Boston Celtics: Hired Ime Udoka to replace Brad Stevens (transitioned to front office role).
  • Dallas Mavericks: Hired Jason Kidd to replace Rick Carlisle.
  • Indiana Pacers: Hired Rick Carlisle to replace Nate Bjorkgren.
  • Orlando Magic: Hired Jamahl Mosley to replace Steve Clifford.
  • Portland Trail Blazers: Hired Chauncey Billups to replace Terry Stotts.

Technically, the Hawks also named a new permanent head coach this offseason, since Nate McMillan only held the interim role up until last week. However, his promotion was long expected, and Atlanta didn’t conduct any sort of search before announcing that McMillan would keep the job.

We’ve been keeping an eye on the Bucks‘ situation throughout the postseason, since there was a sense Mike Budenholzer‘s job would be in danger if Milwaukee failed to make a deep playoff run. It’s possible Budenholzer could still be replaced if the Bucks lose the next two games in embarrassing fashion, but the team is currently three games away from a title, so it’s safe to assume the head coach’s seat isn’t nearly as hot as it was a month ago.

The rest of the NBA’s teams have had plenty of time to make a coaching change if they felt the need to do so. It’s not out of the question that one more summer surprise could be on the way (maybe Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich abruptly retiring after winning Olympic gold with Team USA?), but the odds are against it. At this point, we’re assuming the other 21 teams are happy with their current coaches and won’t be making changes prior to the start of the 2021/22 season.

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Community Shootaround: Expansion

July 9th, 2021 at 8:29pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The NHL’s expansion draft for its newest franchise, the Seattle Kraken, will be held in less than two weeks. It comes just four years after Las Vegas was added to the league.

The other major winter sports league doesn’t seem to be in any rush to add new franchises, however. Commissioner Adam Silver was asked about the possibility of increasing the league’s 30-team membership this week. He made it clear that it’s not near the top of his priority list.

“The most important considerations for us when we look at expansion is, will it ultimately grow the pie? Meaning, it’s potentially 30 more jobs if you expand with two teams,” Silver said. “You expand the league’s footprint. How does that help us in varying ways, sort of increased support nationally. So we’ll continue to look at it. I mean, I’ve said this many times before, we’re certainly not suggesting we’re locked at 30 teams. I think at some point it will make sense to expand, but it’s just not at the top of the agenda right now.”

Seattle, which lost its franchise to Oklahoma City, has long been considered the most likely city to get the next franchise. Las Vegas is also a strong contender, but there are plenty of other options.

Domestically, Kansas City, Louisville, San Diego, Nashville, Tampa and Pittsburgh have been mentioned to varying degrees; the league could also look at major international cities such as London, Vancouver, Montreal and Mexico City.

The Players Association would likely endorse expansion, since it would create more opportunities for players to wear an NBA uniform.

That leads us to our question of the day: Should the NBA seriously consider expansion in the near future? If so, which cities are most deserving of a franchise?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

July 9th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Just about everything went right for the Heat during the summer restart in the Walt Disney World bubble last summer. Having entered the playoffs as a No. 5 seed in the East, Miami won three consecutive series as the road team, then came within two wins of a championship before falling to the Lakers.

The Heat brought back a pretty similar roster in 2020/21, aiming to finish higher in the standings and make another deep playoff run. But health issues limited the team’s ability to build much momentum during the regular season, and the departures of some key role players (such as Jae Crowder) – along with underwhelming or nonexistent contributions from new additions (including Victor Oladipo) – were major factors in Miami’s lack of postseason success.

With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo locked up for multiple seasons, the Heat have a solid All-Star duo to build around, but president of basketball operations Pat Riley may consider making significant roster changes around that duo after Miami became the only one of this year’s 16 playoff teams not to win a single game in the postseason.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan:

The Heat enter the offseason with only five players under contract: Butler, Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and KZ Okpala. That gives the team some flexibility to go in multiple directions.

A year ago, the Heat had the ability to create some cap room, but instead chose to re-sign several of their own free agents, operate over the cap, and use the mid-level exception to try to add a role player or two. It’s possible Miami will go that route again this summer.

The team options for Goran Dragic ($19MM+) and Andre Iguodala ($15MM) may be a little higher than the club would like, but both players could be re-signed even if their options are declined, and Miami would have the ability to bring back some combination of Oladipo, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Trevor Ariza, and Nemanja Bjelica too. Dewayne Dedmon could also be re-signed, though the Heat would have to use an exception to do so if he’s seeking more than the minimum, since he’ll only have Non-Bird rights.

On the other hand, if the Heat aren’t convinced that running it back again is a good play, they could let most of those free agents walk and try their luck on the open market — they’d have $20MM+ in cap room even if they retained the modest cap holds for Nunn and Robinson (they could go over the cap to re-sign those two RFAs after using their cap space).

Still, considering this year’s free agent class is somewhat underwhelming and $20MM likely wouldn’t get them a star-caliber player, I’d expect the Heat to operate over the cap and try to land an impact player on the trade market.

Exercising Dragic’s or Iguodala’s team option would give the Heat a sizeable expiring contract to use for salary-matching (they could pick up both options if needed), and while their ability to trade future first-round picks is somewhat limited, they have valuable young players – such as Herro and Achiuwa – who could be dangled as trade chips.

One potential target to keep an eye on is Kyle Lowry, who is close friends with Butler. The Heat pursued Lowry at the March trade deadline, but were reportedly unwilling to part with Herro to make a deal happen. The Heat could theoretically clear enough cap room to make him a strong offer, so if Lowry wants to team up with Butler, the Raptors’ leverage in sign-and-trade talks would decrease. That would allow Miami to negotiate more favorable trade terms and hang onto Herro, possibly for another trade down the road.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jimmy Butler (veteran)
  • KZ Okpala (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

As noted above, the Heat could create over $20MM+ in cap room by declining all their team options and renouncing all their free agents except Nunn and Robinson. Renouncing Nunn and Robinson would get the team up to $28MM+ in cap space.

But unless there’s an extremely compelling reason to clear that space, I don’t see Miami giving up its rights to so many useful players. The bet here is that the Heat operate as an over-the-cap team and bring back a few of their own free agents.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 5

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Adebayo’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Yurtseven’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  3. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Heat for two seasons, Vincent is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  4. The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values. If the Heat approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM). If they decided to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

July 8th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Having made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020, the Celtics entered the 2020/21 season looking to make it at least that far again. But things never quite gelled for this year’s iteration of the C’s, as injuries, COVID-19 issues, and inconsistent on-court production were all major factors in a disappointing year.

The Celtics still made the playoffs, but it took a play-in win to get there after the team finished with an underwhelming .500 record (36-36). And Boston’s postseason run was short-lived, as the club was unceremoniously dispatched by Brooklyn in the first round.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown still look like capable cornerstones on a future title contender, but the Celtics will need to find a way to surround them with more reliable complementary pieces. That task will fall to Brad Stevens, who made the move from the sidelines to the front office after longtime president of basketball operations Danny Ainge stepped down.

In his first month on the job, Stevens wasted no time in completing a pair of major moves, hiring Ime Udoka to replace him as Boston’s head coach and sending Kemba Walker and a first-round pick to Oklahoma City for Al Horford and Moses Brown in a trade that will create some added financial flexibility for the franchise over the next two seasons.

The Celtics’ Offseason Plan:

Moving Walker’s oversized contract should help the Celtics avoid a significant tax bill in 2021/22, but replacing him with Horford doesn’t really move the needle for the team on the court. More roster moves will be necessary to make Boston a legitimate contender.

Besides the contracts for Tatum, Brown, and Marcus Smart, all of which are good values, the Celtics’ guaranteed salaries fall into two groups: veteran big men who are probably overpaid (Horford and Tristan Thompson, earning a combined $37MM), and inexpensive role players still on their rookie deals (Romeo Langford, Robert Williams, Aaron Nesmith, Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard, and Carsen Edwards).

If the Celtics hope to increase their ceiling, they’ll need to either cobble together a reliable rotation from those pieces or use them to trade for rotation players. It may be time to start moving on from some of those former first-round picks who haven’t developed like the team has hoped. Two or three of those players could be keepers – Pritchard had an especially promising rookie season – but Boston should be willing to deal several of the others — having not drafted them himself, Stevens may not feel as attached to them as Ainge did.

Meanwhile, Horford’s contract is only partially guaranteed beyond this season and Thompson’s deal is expiring, so both players are movable, even if they don’t have positive value. The Celtics also have a handful of trade exceptions that could be useful, including one worth $11MM.

In free agency, figuring out a new deal with Evan Fournier figures to be a top priority. If you take into account the two second-round picks the Celtics sent the Hornets last offseason to generate the massive trade exception later used to take on Fournier, the cost to acquire him essentially worked out to four second-rounders. The organization won’t want to let him walk for nothing after paying that price.

The Celtics also figure to discuss contract extensions with Smart and Robert Williams, both of whom are entering the final year of their contracts. Smart, who should have a bigger role with Walker gone, may have more leverage to negotiate a lucrative new deal than Williams, who could find himself battling for minutes in a crowded frontcourt. Of course, if Stevens wants to take another big swing on the trade market for a point guard, Smart may have to be included in Boston’s offer.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jabari Parker ($2,283,034) 2
  • Moses Brown ($1,201,593)
  • Total: $3,484,627

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Robert Williams (rookie scale)
  • Carsen Edwards (veteran)
  • Al Horford (veteran)
  • Marcus Smart (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Celtics will certainly be over the cap this summer. Whether or not they go over the luxury tax line depends on whether Fournier returns and whether the team cuts costs in trades. If we assume Fournier re-signs at a reasonable rate (perhaps $15MM), Boston would need to shed some salary elsewhere to stay out of the tax.

Without Fournier, the Celtics may have enough breathing room to use the entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception. But my bet for now is that Fournier will be back and that the team will be limited to the taxpayer MLE.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 4
  • Trade exception: $11,050,000
  • Trade exception: $6,879,100
  • Trade exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,767,000
  • Trade exception: $370,564
  • Trade exception: $343,873

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Tatum’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Parker’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100K) after July 31.
  3. Because they have been on two-way contracts with the Celtics for two seasons, Fall and Waters are eligible for standard minimum-salary qualifying offers.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Celtics stay far enough below the tax apron, they could have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Bi-Annual Exception

July 8th, 2021 at 8:01am CST by Luke Adams

The most common tool that over-the-cap teams use to sign free agents from other teams is the mid-level exception, but that’s not the only exception those clubs have to squeeze an extra player onto the payroll. The bi-annual exception is a way for a team to sign a player who may command more than the minimum salary, but less than the mid-level.

As its name suggests, the bi-annual exception can only be used every other season. Even if a team uses only a portion of the exception, it’s off-limits during the following league year.

During the 2020/21 league year, four teams – the Mavericks, Pistons, Grizzlies, and Raptors – were ineligible to use the bi-annual exception at all, since they used it in 2019/20.

Three teams used the BAE in ’20/21, with the Bucks signing Bobby Portis, the Nuggets signing Facundo Campazzo, and the Lakers signing Wesley Matthews. Those three clubs won’t have the exception at their disposal during the 2021/22 league year.

The bi-annual exception is available only to a limited number of clubs, even among those that didn’t use the exception during the previous season. Teams that create and use cap space forfeit the BAE, along with all but the smallest version of the mid-level (the room exception). Additionally, teams lose access to the bi-annual exception when they go over the “tax apron,” a figure approximately $6MM+ above the tax line. So, only teams over the cap and under the tax apron can use the BAE.

If a team uses all or part of the bi-annual exception, the tax apron becomes the club’s hard cap for that season. Teams that sign a player using the BAE can later go under the cap, but can’t go over the tax apron at any time during the season once the contract is signed.

[RELATED: NBA Teams With Hard Caps In 2020/21]

The bi-annual exception allowed for a starting salary of up to $3,623,000 in 2020/21. The starting salary for the BAE in 2021/22 projects to be worth $3,732,000.

Under the NBA’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, the value of each season’s bi-annual exception was determined in advance. However, under the current CBA, the value of the BAE in future league years is tied to salary cap increases or decreases. If the cap goes up by 5%, the value of the bi-annual exception will also increase by 5%.

A player who signs a contract using the bi-annual exception is eligible for a one- or two-year deal, with a 5% raise for the second season. For players who signed using the BAE in 2020/21, the maximum value of a two-year contract was $7,427,150.

Teams also have the option of splitting the bi-annual exception among multiple players, though that happens much less frequently than it does with the mid-level exception, since a split bi-annual deal may not even be worth more than a veteran’s minimum salary.

In a typical league year, the bi-annual exception starts to prorate on January 10, decreasing in value by 1/177th each day until the end of the regular season. Those numbers looked a little different in 2020/21 due to the revamped schedule, but should return to normal for ’21/22.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

July 7th, 2021 at 10:31am CST by Luke Adams

The rebuilding Grizzlies, who traded longtime cornerstones Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in 2019, exceeded expectations in ’19/20. Rather than taking a step back with a younger roster, Memphis had its best season in three years, ultimately falling just short of a playoff spot in the Disney bubble by virtue of losing a play-in game to Portland.

Some regression was expected in 2020/21, but no one told Ja Morant and the Grizzlies. Despite dealing with some health issues – presumed second option Jaren Jackson Jr. was limited to just 11 games due to a knee injury – Memphis took another step forward, finishing the season with a 38-34 record in a tough Western Conference and then winning play-in games over San Antonio and Golden State to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

In theory, continued improvement from Morant, who turns 22 next month, and a full season of good health from Jackson should make the Grizzlies even more dangerous next season. But growth isn’t always linear, and it feels like Memphis probably needs to add some reinforcements to the current group to increase its ceiling. Fortunately, the team is in a pretty good position to do just that.

The Grizzlies’ Offseason Plan:

Of the 17 players who finished the season under contract in Memphis, 14 remain under contract for next season, and the team can increase that number to 15 by exercising its option on Justise Winslow. The only free agents are Tim Frazier and Killian Tillie, neither of whom was a major contributor in 2020/21.

That means the Grizzlies are well-positioned to run it back with the current group, perhaps just adding another young player with the No. 17 overall pick and signing one veteran free agent to fill out the roster.

While the club could certainly go in that direction, I’d expect Zack Kleiman and his front office to be a little more aggressive in pursuing upgrades. The Grizzlies are loaded at certain positions and don’t have any bad contracts on their books, meaning they’re in a good spot to explore trades that consolidate their depth and land them a starting-caliber player.

That doesn’t mean I expect the Grizzlies to be the frontrunner for a star like Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal should they become available (though Beal would be a great fit). Acquiring a player of that caliber would likely involve surrendering several first-round picks, and I’m not sure Memphis is ready to take that step, especially if the player in question isn’t a lock to stick around long-term.

However, the Grizzlies certainly have the ammo to go after a second- or third-tier trade candidate — Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, and/or Xavier Tillman, among others, could be included in an offer for such a player. And Memphis, which controls Utah’s 2022 first-round pick (top-six protected) and Golden State’s 2024 first-round selection (top-four protected), could afford to give up one or two first-rounders.

While none of their own key players are eligible for free agency, the Grizzlies’ decision on Winslow will be an interesting one. The team gave up a couple solid trade chips (Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder) and took on a pair of unfavorable contracts (Dion Waiters and Gorgui Dieng) at the 2020 trade deadline in order to acquire Winslow, but he hasn’t given them much so far, playing just 26 underwhelming games in Memphis since that trade.

If the Grizzlies still believe in Winslow, exercising his $13MM option makes sense. The team has no cap concerns to worry about, and if things don’t work out with Winslow, the downside is minimal, since he’ll come off the books in a year. Still, if Memphis’ faith in the former lottery pick is wavering, declining the option may be the right move — doing so would help create a chunk of cap room that could be used on a player more capable of making an impact in 2021/22.

The Grizzlies’ other important offseason decision will be on Jackson, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension. After a season essentially lost to injury, the club may want to see more from the former No. 4 overall pick before committing to a lucrative, long-term deal. But if he’s willing to accept a relatively team-friendly extension, it could be a good buy-low opportunity for Memphis before JJJ truly breaks out.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jontay Porter ($1,650,000) 1
  • Total: $1,650,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 17 overall pick ($3,053,760)
  • No. 51 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,053,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Grayson Allen (rookie scale)
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. (rookie scale)
  • Kyle Anderson (veteran)
  • Tyus Jones (veteran)
  • Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
  • Justise Winslow (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If the Grizzlies waive Porter and keep their first-round pick, they’ll have about $88MM in commitments for 13 players. Ultimately then, their cap outlook figures to come down to their decision on Winslow.

Should Memphis pick up Winslow’s option, the team would still have a little cap room, but the difference between that space and the full mid-level exception for over-the-cap teams would be marginal, and the team may just decide to operate over the cap. Turning down Winslow’s option, on the other hand, could help the Grizzlies generate $24MM+ in cap space, making them a potential player for some of the top free agents in this year’s class.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Porter’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 18.
  2. The cap hold for Dorsey remains on the Grizzlies’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. It can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. This is a projected value. If the Grizzlies operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Who Will Win NBA Finals MVP?

July 6th, 2021 at 6:09pm CST by Eli Cohen

The NBA Finals between the Bucks and Suns tip off tonight, and they’re surrounded by much uncertainty. The biggest question, of course, relates to the health of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who hyperextended his knee halfway through Game 4 of the Bucks’ series against the Hawks. The Bucks are being cagey with his injury — initially ruled as doubtful by the team, he has since been upgraded to questionable, with his status for Game 1 to be determined after pre-game warmups.

If Antetokounmpo is fully healthy, or even mostly healthy, he is a great bet to take him the coveted Bill Russell Award, which would make him the third player to have a Finals MVP, MVP, and Defensive Player of the Year award to his name, joining Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon.

If Antetokounmpo isn’t ready to go by the opening tip-off, though, things get much more interesting.

The Bucks managed to get contributions from multiple sources in Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Finals. In Game 5, Brook Lopez led the way with 33 points, going back to his Nets days as a low-post offensive hub despite the defensive presence of Hawks’ center Clint Capela.

In Game 6, though, Lopez was unable to keep up the pace, providing 13 points on nine shots. It seems unlikely Lopez would be able to maintain his Game 5 level of offensive production over a full series, especially while battling with defensive anchor Deandre Ayton. If Ayton gets in foul trouble, however, Lopez could have an easier path, as the one weakness on the Suns’ roster is their lack of a back-up center.

Meanwhile, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday both exploded in the last two games against the Hawks. Holiday averaged 26 PPG and 11 APG over the final two contests while Middleton averaged 29 PPG and 7.5 APG. The Hawks had no match for either player, though the Suns have far more wing and guard defenders to throw at them than the Hawks did.

As for the Suns, their big three of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Ayton have been rolling all playoffs long. While detractors have pointed to the injuries of their opponents, the Suns’ ability to close out series – especially for a relatively inexperienced team – has been extremely impressive.

Ayton has been a force on both ends, averaging 17.8 PPG, 13.7 RPG and 1.7 BPG in his first Western Conference Finals. Booker, hounded all series long by the likes of Patrick Beverley and Paul George, was able to put the team on his back as a scorer time after time. And Paul is coming off possibly the performance of his career: a 41-point, eight-assist, zero-turnover game to eliminate his former team, the Clippers, and advance to the first NBA Finals of his 16-season career.

It seems unlikely that Ayton will be named Finals MVP in the case of a Suns championship, barring an unexpected offensive explosion, but both Paul and Booker are prime candidates for the award.

In fact, according to DraftKings.com, Booker and Paul have the two highest odds for coming away with the Finals MVP, with Paul having a slight edge on Booker. Middleton and Antetokounmpo are tied for third, but Giannis’ odds are sure to change if news breaks that he will, in fact, return in time to play in Game 1 of the Finals.

So here’s our question of the day:

Who do you expect to be named Finals MVP?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

July 6th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Despite enduring plenty of Bradley Beal trade speculation before and during the 2020/21 season, the Wizards never wavered on their stated plan to build around Beal. And the All-Star guard didn’t force the team’s hand by asking to be dealt, even after a dismal first two-thirds of the season that saw Washington get off to a 17-32 start.

Still, with the Wizards out of the playoff – and play-in – picture in early April, it looked like it might just be a matter of time until the team had to start seriously considering major offseason changes to the roster, the coaching staff, and even the front office. But a 17-6 finish to the regular season and a win in their second play-in game gave the Wizards a glimmer of hope heading into the summer, even if their playoff run was short-lived.

That run in April and May wasn’t enough to save Scott Brooks‘ job, however. The Wizards and their head coach were unable to agree to terms on a new contract, leaving the team in the market for a new coach, with Wes Unseld Jr. and Jamahl Mosley among a handful of finalists.

As for whether the team’s second-half success was enough to stave off major front office and roster changes, that remains to be seen. But for now, it looks like the plan is to hope a new coach and some tweaks to the roster will help buoy a core group led by Beal and Russell Westbrook to greater heights in 2021/22.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan:

As long as Beal and Westbrook remain on the Wizards’ books, the team’s options for revamping the roster around them are somewhat limited. The star duo is earning a combined $78MM in 2021/22, over two-thirds of the projected $112MM cap.

Washington’s next two highest salaries belong to Davis Bertans ($16MM) and Thomas Bryant ($8.67MM), who would each likely be expendable in the right trade this offseason. Bertans’ contract, which still has four years on it, would be trickier to move than Bryant’s expiring deal.

It’ll be interesting to see whether Bryant is in the Wizards’ plans going forward — he missed nearly all of the 2020/21 season with an ACL tear and may not be back to 100% by the fall. Daniel Gafford, who is on a minimum-salary contract, emerged as a legitimate option at the five in the spring, but the team will need at least one more center with Alex Len and Robin Lopez facing free agency.

Besides Len and Lopez, the Wizards will have to make decisions on free agent guards Ish Smith, Raul Neto, and Garrison Mathews. All played roles in 2020/21 and would be worthwhile investments as long as their price tags remain modest.

However, re-signing more than one of their free agents, hanging onto their first-round pick, and not dumping any contracts in trades could put the Wizards’ team salary pretty close to the tax line, preventing the team from making use of its full mid-level exception. Without that mid-level, Washington’s best hope of upgrading its roster will be on the trade market, with Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, the No. 15 pick, and future first-rounders among the club’s most appealing assets.

It will be crucial this offseason to get a clear sense of where Beal stands. If the Wizards believe they can convince him to sign a contract extension this summer, or re-up with the team in 2022, trading some of those young players and draft assets for a win-now piece might make sense. If Washington feels Beal’s commitment to D.C. isn’t iron-clad, hanging onto those assets – and potentially even shopping Beal before he reaches free agency – may be the right play.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 15 overall pick ($3,383,640)
  • Total: $3,383,640

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Chandler Hutchison (rookie scale)
  • Bradley Beal (veteran)
  • Thomas Bryant (veteran)
  • Daniel Gafford (veteran)
  • Russell Westbrook (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Wizards’ seven guaranteed contracts, Gafford’s non-guaranteed salary, and the No. 15 pick add up to approximately $121MM in commitments for nine roster spots. That puts Washington’s team salary well over the cap.

The tax line projects to be in the $137MM range for 2021/22. Depending on how they fill out the back end of their roster, the Wizards could have just enough flexibility to make use of the full mid-level exception. If they take on any additional salary in trades or re-sign certain free agents, they’ll likely be limited to the taxpayer MLE.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 4
  • Trade exception: $2,161,920
  • Trade exception: $1,000,000

Footnotes

  1. Gill’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 7.
  2. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Wizards for two seasons, Mathews is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  3. The cap holds for these players remain on the Wizards’ books from a prior season because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. These are projected values. If the Wizards approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

July 5th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After bottoming out during the 2019/20 season, the Warriors appeared well-positioned to return to contention in the Western Conference in ’20/21. They were getting healthy and were poised to land a top young talent with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.

However, just hours before the 2020 draft got underway, word broke that Klay Thompson had suffered another major leg injury — after tearing his ACL in June 2019, the veteran sharpshooter tore his Achilles in November 2020.

It was a brutal setback for Golden State and put a major dent in the team’s plans of getting back into the title mix. Given the top-heavy construction of the roster, there simply wasn’t enough depth to make up for the loss of a two-way impact player like Thompson, whose defensive ability on the wing were missed nearly as much as his floor-spacing and shot-making contributions on offense.

A superhuman effort from Stephen Curry nearly sent the Warriors to the postseason anyway. Ultimately though, the team lost two play-in games and finished in the lottery for a second straight season. Golden State will once again enter the offseason with the opportunity to add some young talent to the roster in the draft, while waiting for Thompson to finish rehabbing a major injury.

The Warriors’ Offseason Plan:

Curry is 33 years old; Thompson and Draymond Green are 31. The Warriors can’t count on those stars – who helped earn the team three titles during the 2010s – to continue producing at their current or previous levels indefinitely. That puts the team in an awkward spot.

In James Wiseman and a pair of lottery picks, Golden State has the pieces to put together a tantalizing trade package for a veteran star whose timeline would match up better with that of Curry, Thompson, and Green. However, the Warriors have seen first-hand during the last two years how quickly a major injury or two can derail a team’s season, making the prospect of going all-in with the current core a little risky.

If the Dubs were to take a more patient approach, they could potentially develop a next generation of impact players who could help smoothly transition from the Splash Brothers era into whatever comes next, ensuring Golden State remains a playoff team for years to come. But if those youngsters aren’t ready to contribute right away, the team risks wasting away Curry’s last few prime years without getting back to the Finals.

It’s a predicament without an easy solution. If there were a star player in his early- or mid-20s on the trade market, the Warriors could feel confident trading the farm and counting on that player to be the cornerstone for the next era of Bay Area basketball. But the only player who really comes close to fitting that bill is Ben Simmons. Are the Warriors ready to put all their eggs into the Simmons basket following his playoff collapse? Would the win-now Sixers even be interested in the sort of package Golden State could offer?

There’s a middle ground here — a deal in which the Warriors give up one or two of Wiseman and the lottery picks for a win-now piece could make the team a title contender without going all-in. And perhaps there are players besides Simmons who will emerge as logical trade targets for the franchise. Pascal Siakam‘s name has popped up in at least one rumor.

It’ll be fascinating to see which direction the Warriors go with Wiseman and those draft picks, but there are other issues for the team to address this offseason too. If the club doesn’t re-sign Kelly Oubre, getting something back in a sign-and-trade would be nice. Determining whether to use the taxpayer mid-level exception will come down to how much more money ownership is willing to add to its tax bill now that Golden State is a repeater team.

And, of course, the Warriors will have to determine whether they feel comfortable offering Curry a maximum-salary extension before he reaches free agency in 2022. A four-year max extension would pay him nearly $54MM(!) per year for his age 34-37 seasons.

As good as Curry was this past season, there’s a very real chance that deal would turn into a liability before it’s over — the 2025/26 cap hit would be a staggering $59.6MM. The organization may decide the risk is worth it, given Curry’s résumé, but if he’s willing to take a discount or accept a deal that’s not fully guaranteed on the back end, it would increase the Warriors’ long-term flexibility.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 7 overall pick ($5,466,360)
  • No. 14 overall pick ($3,562,080)
  • Total: $9,028,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Stephen Curry (veteran)
  • Kevon Looney (veteran)
  • Eric Paschall (veteran)
  • Alen Smailagic (veteran)
  • Andrew Wiggins (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If they hang onto their players on guaranteed contracts and their two lottery picks, the Warriors will be committed to over $169MM in salary for 11 players.

While we expect a certain amount of offseason roster shuffling that could reduce team salary to some extent, the idea that Golden State will get below the cap – or even below the luxury tax line (projected to be in the $136-137MM range) – seems pretty far-fetched. Count on the Warriors to have another big tax bill in 2021/22.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 7
  • Trade exception: $2,250,000
  • Trade exception: $1,824,003

Footnotes

  1. Looney exercised his player option for 2021/22.
  2. Payton’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($659,004) after August 11.
  3. Lee’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($500,000) after August 15.
  4. Smailagic’s salary becomes guaranteed after August 6.
  5. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Bell is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  6. The cap holds for these players remain on the Warriors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Mid-Level Exception

July 5th, 2021 at 2:54pm CST by Luke Adams

The mid-level exception is the most common way for over-the-cap NBA teams to sign free agents from other clubs for more than the minimum salary. It ensures that each team heads into the offseason with a little spending flexibility, even if that franchise is deep into luxury-tax territory.

Each team is eligible to use a specific type of mid-level exception depending on its proximity to the salary cap. The most lucrative form of mid-level is available to teams that are over the cap but below the tax apron. Clubs deep into the tax, and even those under the cap, have access to lesser versions of the MLE. Here’s a breakdown of how all three forms of the exception are structured:

For over-the-cap teams:

  • Commonly called either the full mid-level exception, the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception or simply the mid-level exception.
  • Contract can cover up to four seasons.
  • First-year salary was worth $9,258,000 in 2020/21.
  • First-year salary is projected to be worth $9,536,000 in 2021/22.
  • Once used, the team cannot surpass the “tax apron” (approximately $6MM+ above tax line) for the remainder of the season.

For teams above the cap and the tax apron:

  • Commonly called the taxpayer’s mid-level exception.
  • Contract can cover up to three seasons.
  • First-year salary was worth $5,718,000 in 2020/21.
  • First-year salary is projected to be worth $5,890,000 in 2021/22.

For teams with cap room:

  • Commonly called the room exception.
  • Contract can cover no more than two seasons.
  • First-year salary was worth $4,767,000 in 2020/21.
  • First-year salary is projected to be worth $4,910,000 in 2021/22.

Each form of the mid-level allows for annual raises of up to 5% of the value of the first season’s salary. Last offseason, we broke down the maximum total salaries that players signed using the mid-level exception in ’20/21 could earn. Those numbers can be found right here.

Teams can use their entire mid-level exception to sign one player. Several clubs went this route in 2020/21, including the Celtics (Tristan Thompson), Clippers (Serge Ibaka), Lakers (Montrezl Harrell), Trail Blazers (Derrick Jones), Suns (Jae Crowder), and Jazz (Derrick Favors).

However, clubs are also allowed to split the mid-level among multiple players, and that’s a common course of action. For instance, the Kings used their MLE to complete four separate signings in 2020/21, devoting parts of it to Robert Woodard, Jahmi’us Ramsey, and Chimezie Metu (twice). Sacramento signed Metu using the mid-level, waived him, then used the MLE again to re-sign him later in the season.

Players drafted in the second round often sign contracts for part of the mid-level because it allows teams to give them contracts for more years and more money than the minimum salary exception provides. Woodard and Ramsey were both second-round picks in 2020 whom the Kings signed using the MLE.

Without the MLE, Sacramento would have been limited to two-year deals starting at $898,310 for those two rookies. The mid-level allowed the Kings to pay them more, sign them to longer deals, and to ensure they’ll have full Bird rights if they play out their contracts, rather than just the Early Bird rights they’d have after two years.

Some front offices prefer to leave all or part of the mid-level exception unused in the offseason so it’s still available near the end of the regular season. At that point, a contender could use its MLE to try to sign an impact veteran on the buyout market.

A non-contending club, on the other hand, could use its MLE to lock up an intriguing developmental player to a long-term contract, like the Heat did at the end of the 2018/19 campaign with Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn. Both players, who signed in the season’s final week, would have reached restricted free agency in 2020 if Miami had used the minimum salary exception to sign them to two-year contracts instead of using the MLE to negotiate three-year deals.

Near the end of the 2020/21 season, the Thunder used a portion of their mid-level exception to sign Gabriel Deck to a four-year contract with a salary worth $3.87MM in ’20/21. That oversized first-year salary, made possible by the MLE, gave Oklahoma City the leverage to make the rest of the contract non-guaranteed.

Unlike the bi-annual exception, the mid-level exception can be used every season. So whether or not a team used its mid-level in 2020/21, each club will have the opportunity to use some form of the MLE when the 2021/22 league year begins.

Under the old Collective Bargaining Agreement, the mid-level exception increased annually at a modest, fixed rate. However, under the current CBA, the mid-level increases – or decreases – at the same rate as the salary cap, ensuring that its value relative to cap room remains about the same from year to year. We’ve estimated 2021/22’s MLE figures based on the NBA’s projection of a 3% salary cap increase — a more substantial cap increase would mean next season’s mid-level is worth a little more too.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

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