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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

July 5th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After bottoming out during the 2019/20 season, the Warriors appeared well-positioned to return to contention in the Western Conference in ’20/21. They were getting healthy and were poised to land a top young talent with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.

However, just hours before the 2020 draft got underway, word broke that Klay Thompson had suffered another major leg injury — after tearing his ACL in June 2019, the veteran sharpshooter tore his Achilles in November 2020.

It was a brutal setback for Golden State and put a major dent in the team’s plans of getting back into the title mix. Given the top-heavy construction of the roster, there simply wasn’t enough depth to make up for the loss of a two-way impact player like Thompson, whose defensive ability on the wing were missed nearly as much as his floor-spacing and shot-making contributions on offense.

A superhuman effort from Stephen Curry nearly sent the Warriors to the postseason anyway. Ultimately though, the team lost two play-in games and finished in the lottery for a second straight season. Golden State will once again enter the offseason with the opportunity to add some young talent to the roster in the draft, while waiting for Thompson to finish rehabbing a major injury.

The Warriors’ Offseason Plan:

Curry is 33 years old; Thompson and Draymond Green are 31. The Warriors can’t count on those stars – who helped earn the team three titles during the 2010s – to continue producing at their current or previous levels indefinitely. That puts the team in an awkward spot.

In James Wiseman and a pair of lottery picks, Golden State has the pieces to put together a tantalizing trade package for a veteran star whose timeline would match up better with that of Curry, Thompson, and Green. However, the Warriors have seen first-hand during the last two years how quickly a major injury or two can derail a team’s season, making the prospect of going all-in with the current core a little risky.

If the Dubs were to take a more patient approach, they could potentially develop a next generation of impact players who could help smoothly transition from the Splash Brothers era into whatever comes next, ensuring Golden State remains a playoff team for years to come. But if those youngsters aren’t ready to contribute right away, the team risks wasting away Curry’s last few prime years without getting back to the Finals.

It’s a predicament without an easy solution. If there were a star player in his early- or mid-20s on the trade market, the Warriors could feel confident trading the farm and counting on that player to be the cornerstone for the next era of Bay Area basketball. But the only player who really comes close to fitting that bill is Ben Simmons. Are the Warriors ready to put all their eggs into the Simmons basket following his playoff collapse? Would the win-now Sixers even be interested in the sort of package Golden State could offer?

There’s a middle ground here — a deal in which the Warriors give up one or two of Wiseman and the lottery picks for a win-now piece could make the team a title contender without going all-in. And perhaps there are players besides Simmons who will emerge as logical trade targets for the franchise. Pascal Siakam‘s name has popped up in at least one rumor.

It’ll be fascinating to see which direction the Warriors go with Wiseman and those draft picks, but there are other issues for the team to address this offseason too. If the club doesn’t re-sign Kelly Oubre, getting something back in a sign-and-trade would be nice. Determining whether to use the taxpayer mid-level exception will come down to how much more money ownership is willing to add to its tax bill now that Golden State is a repeater team.

And, of course, the Warriors will have to determine whether they feel comfortable offering Curry a maximum-salary extension before he reaches free agency in 2022. A four-year max extension would pay him nearly $54MM(!) per year for his age 34-37 seasons.

As good as Curry was this past season, there’s a very real chance that deal would turn into a liability before it’s over — the 2025/26 cap hit would be a staggering $59.6MM. The organization may decide the risk is worth it, given Curry’s résumé, but if he’s willing to take a discount or accept a deal that’s not fully guaranteed on the back end, it would increase the Warriors’ long-term flexibility.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 7 overall pick ($5,466,360)
  • No. 14 overall pick ($3,562,080)
  • Total: $9,028,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Stephen Curry (veteran)
  • Kevon Looney (veteran)
  • Eric Paschall (veteran)
  • Alen Smailagic (veteran)
  • Andrew Wiggins (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If they hang onto their players on guaranteed contracts and their two lottery picks, the Warriors will be committed to over $169MM in salary for 11 players.

While we expect a certain amount of offseason roster shuffling that could reduce team salary to some extent, the idea that Golden State will get below the cap – or even below the luxury tax line (projected to be in the $136-137MM range) – seems pretty far-fetched. Count on the Warriors to have another big tax bill in 2021/22.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 7
  • Trade exception: $2,250,000
  • Trade exception: $1,824,003

Footnotes

  1. Looney exercised his player option for 2021/22.
  2. Payton’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($659,004) after August 11.
  3. Lee’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($500,000) after August 15.
  4. Smailagic’s salary becomes guaranteed after August 6.
  5. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Bell is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  6. The cap holds for these players remain on the Warriors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Mid-Level Exception

July 5th, 2021 at 2:54pm CST by Luke Adams

The mid-level exception is the most common way for over-the-cap NBA teams to sign free agents from other clubs for more than the minimum salary. It ensures that each team heads into the offseason with a little spending flexibility, even if that franchise is deep into luxury-tax territory.

Each team is eligible to use a specific type of mid-level exception depending on its proximity to the salary cap. The most lucrative form of mid-level is available to teams that are over the cap but below the tax apron. Clubs deep into the tax, and even those under the cap, have access to lesser versions of the MLE. Here’s a breakdown of how all three forms of the exception are structured:

For over-the-cap teams:

  • Commonly called either the full mid-level exception, the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception or simply the mid-level exception.
  • Contract can cover up to four seasons.
  • First-year salary was worth $9,258,000 in 2020/21.
  • First-year salary is projected to be worth $9,536,000 in 2021/22.
  • Once used, the team cannot surpass the “tax apron” (approximately $6MM+ above tax line) for the remainder of the season.

For teams above the cap and the tax apron:

  • Commonly called the taxpayer’s mid-level exception.
  • Contract can cover up to three seasons.
  • First-year salary was worth $5,718,000 in 2020/21.
  • First-year salary is projected to be worth $5,890,000 in 2021/22.

For teams with cap room:

  • Commonly called the room exception.
  • Contract can cover no more than two seasons.
  • First-year salary was worth $4,767,000 in 2020/21.
  • First-year salary is projected to be worth $4,910,000 in 2021/22.

Each form of the mid-level allows for annual raises of up to 5% of the value of the first season’s salary. Last offseason, we broke down the maximum total salaries that players signed using the mid-level exception in ’20/21 could earn. Those numbers can be found right here.

Teams can use their entire mid-level exception to sign one player. Several clubs went this route in 2020/21, including the Celtics (Tristan Thompson), Clippers (Serge Ibaka), Lakers (Montrezl Harrell), Trail Blazers (Derrick Jones), Suns (Jae Crowder), and Jazz (Derrick Favors).

However, clubs are also allowed to split the mid-level among multiple players, and that’s a common course of action. For instance, the Kings used their MLE to complete four separate signings in 2020/21, devoting parts of it to Robert Woodard, Jahmi’us Ramsey, and Chimezie Metu (twice). Sacramento signed Metu using the mid-level, waived him, then used the MLE again to re-sign him later in the season.

Players drafted in the second round often sign contracts for part of the mid-level because it allows teams to give them contracts for more years and more money than the minimum salary exception provides. Woodard and Ramsey were both second-round picks in 2020 whom the Kings signed using the MLE.

Without the MLE, Sacramento would have been limited to two-year deals starting at $898,310 for those two rookies. The mid-level allowed the Kings to pay them more, sign them to longer deals, and to ensure they’ll have full Bird rights if they play out their contracts, rather than just the Early Bird rights they’d have after two years.

Some front offices prefer to leave all or part of the mid-level exception unused in the offseason so it’s still available near the end of the regular season. At that point, a contender could use its MLE to try to sign an impact veteran on the buyout market.

A non-contending club, on the other hand, could use its MLE to lock up an intriguing developmental player to a long-term contract, like the Heat did at the end of the 2018/19 campaign with Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn. Both players, who signed in the season’s final week, would have reached restricted free agency in 2020 if Miami had used the minimum salary exception to sign them to two-year contracts instead of using the MLE to negotiate three-year deals.

Near the end of the 2020/21 season, the Thunder used a portion of their mid-level exception to sign Gabriel Deck to a four-year contract with a salary worth $3.87MM in ’20/21. That oversized first-year salary, made possible by the MLE, gave Oklahoma City the leverage to make the rest of the contract non-guaranteed.

Unlike the bi-annual exception, the mid-level exception can be used every season. So whether or not a team used its mid-level in 2020/21, each club will have the opportunity to use some form of the MLE when the 2021/22 league year begins.

Under the old Collective Bargaining Agreement, the mid-level exception increased annually at a modest, fixed rate. However, under the current CBA, the mid-level increases – or decreases – at the same rate as the salary cap, ensuring that its value relative to cap room remains about the same from year to year. We’ve estimated 2021/22’s MLE figures based on the NBA’s projection of a 3% salary cap increase — a more substantial cap increase would mean next season’s mid-level is worth a little more too.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

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Poll: 2021 NBA Finals Winner

July 5th, 2021 at 10:01am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 NBA Finals matchup has been set, and it’s an unlikely one. The Suns, representing the Western Conference, haven’t played in the Finals since 1993 and have never won a championship. The Bucks, out of the East, last played in the Finals in 1974 and won their only title in 1971.

Entering this season, the Suns hadn’t finished above .500 since 2013/14 and hadn’t made the postseason since 2010, so their year should already be considered a major success. Expectations were higher for the Bucks, who had the NBA’s best record for two consecutive years entering 2020/21 and were just two wins away from the Finals in 2019.

However, that doesn’t mean that Milwaukee will enter the Finals as the favorite. According to sports betting site BetOnline.ag, the Suns are currently the -190 favorites, meaning you’d have to risk $190 on a Phoenix win in order to make a $100 profit.

The health of Giannis Antetokounmpo is a major factor in that line. The two-time Most Valuable Player missed the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals – both Bucks wins – after hyperextending his knee in Game 4.

A report last week suggested that Antetokounmpo might get the green light to play in Game 7 vs. Atlanta if it had been necessary, which is a sign that he could be good to go for Game 1 of the Finals. However, since they’re no longer facing a win-or-go-home scenario, the Bucks may feel less pressure to bring Giannis back for the first game of what could be a long series if he’s still not feeling fully healthy.

Whether or not Antetokounmpo is available for Game 1, this should be a compelling and entertaining showdown.

In his preview of the Finals, John Hollinger of The Athletic suggests that one of the most intriguing subplots will be how the Bucks choose to defend Suns guards Devin Booker and Chris Paul. Jrue Holiday can only guard one of the two, and their ability to knock down jump shots will make it difficult for Milwaukee to lean on its preferred drop coverage.

Phoenix may also be able to take advantage of the Bucks’ lack of depth, Hollinger notes, especially if Antetokounmpo remains sidelined along with Donte DiVincenzo.

However, if and when Antetokounmpo is ready to go, he’ll present a matchup challenge for the Suns, who may need to rely on some combination of Jae Crowder, Cameron Johnson, and Deandre Ayton against the star forward, with Mikal Bridges handling the Khris Middleton assignment, writes Hollinger.

Hollinger is picking the Suns in seven, with Antetokounmpo’s injury and Phoenix’s home-court advantage helping to tip the scales. But we want to know what you think.

Which team do you expect to win the 2021 NBA Finals? How many games will it take? What will be the deciding factors? Who will be named MVP?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

July 2nd, 2021 at 2:26pm CST by Luke Adams

The Pacers were a beacon of regular-season consistency for most of the 2010s. Beginning in 2011/12, they finished below .500 just once in nine years, making the playoffs in eight of those seasons.

However, Indiana’s postseason runs were generally short-lived. The team was eliminated in the first round five straight times from 2016-20 and was just 3-16 in the playoffs during head coach Nate McMillan‘s tenure, resulting in McMillan’s ouster prior to the 2020/21 campaign.

There was optimism entering the season that new head coach Nate Bjorkgren and two-time All-Star Victor Oladipo – nearly two years removed from a brutal leg injury – could lead the Pacers to greater heights. Instead, injuries to Oladipo and several other key players derailed Indiana’s year, and Bjorkgren alienated Pacers players and coaches alike. Oladipo was traded during the season and Bjorkgren was dismissed after just one year.

Indiana still had enough talent to make the play-in tournament in May, and there’s reason to believe that better injury luck and the influence of new head coach Rick Carlisle could produce far better results in 2021/22. If not, the roster could be in line for a major overhaul.

The Pacers’ Offseason Plan:

Most of the Pacers’ starters and rotation players are under contract for the 2021/22 season, but there are a pair of notable exceptions who will be unrestricted free agents.

T.J. McConnell played an increased role during his second season in Indiana, and responded by establishing career-best marks in PPG (8.6), APG (6.6), and FG% (55.9%). The 29-year-old is a career backup who is never a threat to score 40 points in a game (his career high is 23), but his contributions shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s a talented play-maker and hard-nosed defender, and the Pacers were better both offensively and defensively when he was on the court this year.

Doug McDermott is the team’s other key unrestricted free agent. He’s considered a three-point specialist, and he certainly does that well, having knocked down 41.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc during his three years with the Pacers. But he has also shown that he’s more than just a catch-and-shoot player, developing new ways to score off the dribble and inside the arc — his 13.6 PPG and .532 FG% in 2020/21 were easily career highs.

The Pacers enter the offseason over the cap, so re-signing both McConnell and McDermott won’t be simple, but Carlisle singled out both players as priorities during his introductory press conference this week.

Indiana could create some extra cap flexibility to bring those free agents back by being active on the trade market. While it remains to be seen whether this will be the year that the team finally decides to break up the frontcourt duo of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, there are other trade candidates on the roster.

Jeremy Lamb, who is on an expiring deal, and Aaron Holiday, who has long been mentioned in trade rumors, are potential candidates to be on the move. The No. 13 pick in this year’s draft would be an appealing chip if Indiana doesn’t want to bring in a rookie, but the cost certainty of that pick would help balance some of the higher-priced players on the roster.

T.J. Warren is also entering the final year of his contract, but seems less likely to be dealt unless the Pacers don’t expect him to re-sign in 2022. If any of the team’s starters are dealt, it would likely only be for an upgrade. The Pacers reportedly offered Malcolm Brogdon in a deal for Ben Simmons, for instance.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall pick ($3,749,520)
  • No. 54 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 60 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,749,520

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Aaron Holiday (rookie scale)
  • Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
  • Jeremy Lamb (veteran)
  • Caris LeVert (veteran)
  • Edmond Sumner (veteran)
  • Myles Turner (veteran)
  • T.J. Warren (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Pacers will begin the offseason operating above the cap and under the tax, with nearly $116MM in guaranteed salaries on their books. It’s possible the team could approach luxury-tax territory, losing access to the full mid-level exception, but this organization isn’t one I’d expect to pay tax penalties unless its roster is clearly capable of winning a championship. I don’t think the current group qualifies.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $4,796,296
  • Trade exception: $2,808,844

Footnotes

  1. Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 7.
  2. These are projected values. If the Pacers approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs

June 30th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

After missing the postseason for the first time in 23 years in 2019/20, the Spurs didn’t exactly bounce back with a vengeance in ’20/21. Their 33-39 record was just a half-game improvement over the year before, and while San Antonio earned a spot in the play-in tournament, the team was quickly eliminated by Memphis, missing the playoffs two years in a row for the first time in franchise history.

San Antonio’s struggles can be traced back to an inability to maximize the return for All-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard in 2018. That wasn’t entirely the team’s fault – Leonard’s injury situation and his discontent with the organization hurt his value – but it was a problem.

The Spurs haven’t been bad enough in recent years to land high in the lottery and potentially draft a new franchise player. As a result, the club that went from David Robinson to Tim Duncan to Leonard now lacks a cornerstone for its next phase.

Still, given where the Spurs have drafted in recent years, there’s plenty of promising young talent on the roster, including Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, and Devin Vassell, so it’s not as if the cupboards are totally bare going forward. San Antonio still has one of the league’s better developmental programs, and as long as those youngsters continue to improve, it shouldn’t be much longer until the team is back in the postseason.

The Spurs’ Offseason Plan:

With the exception of the occasional major move – such as the Leonard trade in 2018 or the signing of LaMarcus Aldridge in 2015 – the Spurs can rarely be counted on for action-packed offseasons that feature a bunch of roster turnover. Their general preference is to identify guys they like and then to keep re-signing them, favoring continuity and development over constantly seeking out potential upgrades.

Having said that, if the Spurs do want to significantly turn over their roster, this would be the time to do it. Aldridge departed earlier this year, highly-paid veterans DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Patty Mills are among the team’s five unrestricted free agents, and the club currently has less than $57MM in guaranteed salary on its books for 2021/22.

While the opportunity is there, I wouldn’t expect the Spurs to renounce all their vets to create the cap room necessary to make a run for a top restricted free agent such as John Collins. They could surprise me, but it just doesn’t feel like their M.O.

There are rumors that DeRozan may look to sign elsewhere, however. In that case, perhaps the Spurs focus on re-signing Mills and Gay. If the team can bring back that duo for a combined 2021/22 cap hit of about $25-30MM, it would still leave enough room to make a play at a second- or third-tier free agent or two.

Lauri Markkanen would be an intriguing target as a reclamation project, since the former lottery pick has seen his value dip a little in Chicago. Josh Hart and Bruce Brown also strike me as Spurs-type players.

However, all of those guys are restricted free agents, so San Antonio would either have to be aggressive with an offer sheet, work out a sign-and-trade, or hope that the player’s current team is only lukewarm on bringing him back. That may be the case with Markkanen and the Bulls, but I imagine the Pelicans and Nets will prioritize Hart and Brown, respectively.

Kelly Olynyk, Otto Porter, JaMychal Green, and Kelly Oubre are among the unrestricted free agents I could envision as fits for the Spurs. Justise Winslow might also be an intriguing target if the Grizzlies don’t pick up his $13MM option.

Of course, the big question looming over the Spurs is how much longer Gregg Popovich will patrol the team’s sidelines. A year or two ago, there was speculation that the NBA’s longest-tenured head coach would retire after coaching Team USA at the 2020 Olympics. The Tokyo games have since been pushed back a year and there’s still no indication that Popovich plans to call it career once they conclude. But he’s 72 years old, so it’s hard to imagine his run as the Spurs’ coach will last too much longer.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 12 overall pick ($3,946,800)
  • No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,946,800

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Lonnie Walker (rookie scale)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Taking into account the cap hold for their lottery pick, the Spurs have about $61MM committed to nine roster spots, putting them in position to open up a serious chunk of cap room. However, they also have nearly double that amount in options, non-guaranteed salary, and free agent cap holds, meaning they could very well operate as an over-the-cap team to start the offseason.

The Spurs’ decision on DeRozan may dictate whether or not they dip below the cap. If he re-signs at a salary close to this season’s $27.7MM figure, staying over the cap probably makes sense, but if he walks for nothing, the club might as well take advantage of its financial flexibility.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 7

Footnotes

  1. Eubanks’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 20.
  2. Jeffries will be eligible for restricted free agency if his option is declined.
  3. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Spurs for two seasons, Weatherspoon is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  4. This is a projected value. DeRozan’s cap hit will be either the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA service or $41,609,963 (whichever is lesser).
  5. The cap holds for these players remain on the Spurs’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  6. The 26th overall pick in 2015, Milutinov has yet to sign his rookie scale contract. His cap hold will remain on the Spurs’ books unless the team receives permission to remove it, which would ensure Milutinov won’t be signed in 2021/22.
  7. This is a projected value. If the Spurs operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Charlotte Hornets

June 29th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

At the end of the 2019/20 season, few NBA franchises appeared to be in a worse spot than the Hornets, who won just 23 games, missed the playoffs for a fourth straight seasons, and didn’t have any young players with legitimate star upside on their roster.

The Hornets didn’t snap their playoff drought in 2021, but a year later, their outlook is considerably brighter. That turnaround can be attributed in large part to nailing the No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft. LaMelo Ball became the NBA’s Rookie of the Year and looks like the best bet of any 2020 draftee to eventually make an All-Star team.

Charlotte also added forward Gordon Hayward on a four-year, $120MM contract during 2020’s free agent period. The deal was widely viewed as an overpay, and it’s possible the Hornets will end up regretting it in a year or two. Still, it was an encouraging sign that the franchise was able to land one of the summer’s top free agents, beating out the Pacers and Knicks, among others.

Ball and Hayward both missed time due to injuries in 2020/21, but the club still earned a play-in spot in the East and has the flexibility to continue upgrading its roster this summer. The Hornets aren’t exactly legit contenders yet, but things in Charlotte don’t look as bleak as they did at this time last year.

The Hornets’ Offseason Plan:

The Hornets will face important decisions on free agent guards Malik Monk and Devonte’ Graham, both of whom are eligible for qualifying offers that would make them restricted FAs. Both Monk and Graham have value, and ideally Charlotte wouldn’t let them get away for nothing, but Ball’s emergence and Terry Rozier‘s impressive performance in 2020/21 have given the team some options. If Monk, for instance, needs to be renounced to open up some cap room, there’s enough backcourt depth on the roster to withstand the loss.

Besides addressing the backcourt, the Hornets will prioritize the center position. Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo are headed to unrestricted free agency, and while it’s possible the club will look to bring one of them back as a reserve on a modest contract, Charlotte will be aiming higher in its search for frontcourt help.

Richaun Holmes, Andre Drummond, and Nerlens Noel are among the players the Hornets could pursue in free agency. The trade market offers some intriguing options as well, including Pacers center Myles Turner, who has frequently been linked to Charlotte and could once again be on the trade block this offseason. Getting a player who can knock down threes like Turner would be great, but the Hornets really just need someone who can protect the basket on defense and be a rim-running partner for Ball on offense.

Rozier and Miles Bridges are the Hornets’ two most notable extension-eligible players. The team’s decision on Rozier may be tied to how Graham’s free agency plays out — if Graham returns, it would cast more uncertainty on Rozier’s long-term future with the franchise. Bridges, meanwhile, looks like a keeper on the wing, and I imagine Charlotte will try to sign him to an extension this offseason if the price is right.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 11 overall pick ($4,154,400)
  • No. 56 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 57 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,154,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Miles Bridges (rookie scale)
  • Caleb Martin (veteran)
  • Cody Martin (veteran)
  • Jalen McDaniels (veteran)
  • Terry Rozier (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Hornets will likely dip below the cap this offseason, especially if they don’t re-sign Monk, or bring him back on a salary far below his $16MM cap hold.

If Charlotte were to renounce Monk, bring back the three players with non-guaranteed salaries, and account for cap holds for Graham and the No. 11 pick, they could create more than $20MM in cap room. Waiving some of the non-guaranteed money would bump that figure up slightly, while re-signing Monk would cut into it.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed at some point in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  2. Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed at some point in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  3. McDaniels’ salary becomes fully guaranteed at some point this summer (exact date TBD).
  4. This is a projected value. If the Hornets operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post

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Community Shootaround: Remaining Coaching Openings

June 29th, 2021 at 9:34am CST by Luke Adams

Seven NBA teams have parted ways with their head coaches – mutually or otherwise – since the regular season ended. Of those seven clubs, four have since hired replacements.

The Celtics and Trail Blazers are making Ime Udoka and Chauncey Billups first-time head coaches, while the Pacers and Mavericks are reuniting with Rick Carlisle and Jason Kidd, respectively.

That leaves three teams in search of new head coaches: the Pelicans, Wizards, and Magic.

[RELATED: 2021 NBA Head Coaching Search Tracker]

Of those three jobs, the one in New Orleans may be the most attractive. The Pelicans‘ core includes a pair of All-Star caliber forwards (Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram), along with several other young players and a boatload of future draft picks. While the Pelicans missed out on the postseason again in 2021, they’re well-positioned to continue improving their roster.

Nets assistant Jacque Vaughn has been the candidate most frequently linked to the Pelicans’ job. He has some head coaching experience, having coached Orlando for two-and-a-half years from 2012-15 and Brooklyn for 10 games in 2020. A former player who has spent over a decade in the coaching ranks since his retirement, Vaughn might be someone the Pelicans envision building a strong connection with their young roster. Bucks assistant Charles Lee and Pelicans assistant Fred Vinson are among the other candidates reportedly receiving consideration.

The Wizards, meanwhile, are the only one of the three teams without a head coach that is coming off a playoff appearance. The job comes with its share of pitfalls though. Bradley Beal could reach free agency in 2022, so his long-term future in D.C. isn’t assured. And the team, which had to win its second play-in game to sneak into the postseason, is capped out this offseason, with Russell Westbrook still owed $91MM+ over two years.

Still, the opportunity to coach one of the most talented backcourts in the NBA will be a draw, and Wizards ownership is willing to make the necessary investments to upgrade the roster wherever possible. Sixers assistant Sam Cassell, Mavericks assistant Jamahl Mosley, and Celtics assistant Scott Morrison are believed to be candidates for the Washington job, though the most intriguing name that keeps popping up is that of Nuggets associate head coach Wes Unseld Jr. His return to D.C., where his father spent the majority of his Hall-of-Fame career, would be a great story.

Finally, the Orlando job poses perhaps the most clear-cut challenge for an incoming coach: Help a roster that’s in the very early stages of a rebuild to grow and develop. With their moves at the trade deadline, the Magic tore things down and reset their timeline, so expectations will be modest for at least the next couple years. Whoever gets this job won’t be expected to turn this club into a title contender anytime soon.

The Magic appear to be conducting a wide-range search and are considering several assistants without NBA head coaching experience, though there’s a belief that they’d prefer a more experienced leader. Kenny Atkinson and Terry Stotts are among the former NBA head coaches who have been repeatedly cited as strong candidates for the job. Penny Hardaway, who has no NBA coaching experience but is a Magic legend and a head coach at the University of Memphis, is also said to be firmly in the mix.

We want to know what you think. Of the Pelicans’, Wizards’, and Magic’s head coaching jobs, which is most appealing? Which candidates do you think those clubs should be targeting? And which coaches do you expect to ultimately be hired?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

June 28th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls overhauled both their front office and their coaching staff in 2020, replacing longtime basketball operations executives John Paxson and Gar Forman with Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley, who in turn replaced head coach Jim Boylen with Billy Donovan.

Despite the leadership changes, the Bulls didn’t turn over many spots on a roster that went 22-43 in 2019/20, so expectations for Chicago were modest entering ’20/21 — oddsmakers projected them to win no more than 30 games.

But the team aimed higher. Firmly in the play-in mix more than halfway through the season, the Bulls’ new top decision-makers decided to take a big swing, sending a pair of future first-round picks and former lottery selection Wendell Carter to Orlando in a trade for Nikola Vucevic.

The short-term results weren’t great. The Bulls, 19-24 at the time of the trade, failed to make any headway with Vucevic on the roster, finishing the season on a 12-17 run and missing out on a play-in spot. To make matters worse, the top-four protected 2021 pick the Bulls traded to the Magic in the blockbuster deadline deal landed at No. 8.

Still, the Bulls’ front office remains confident that the Vucevic acquisition will pay dividends going forward, once the All-Star center has a full offseason and training camp to get comfortable with his new team. Chicago will enter the 2021/22 season seeking its first playoff berth since 2017.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

With no first-round pick at their disposal, the Bulls will turn to free agency or the trade market to try address their point guard position, which has been an Achilles heel for the franchise since Derrick Rose‘s All-Star days.

The good news is that there’s no shortage of options available in free agency this summer — when we ranked our top 20 free agents at the start of June, seven players on our list were point guards. Some of those veterans, such as Chris Paul and Mike Conley, may end up simply returning to their current teams, but the Bulls have the cap flexibility to pursue the ones who will test the market, including perhaps Lonzo Ball, Dennis Schröder, and Spencer Dinwiddie.

The Bulls also face decisions on Lauri Markkanen, a restricted free agent, and Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky, whose salaries for 2021/22 are only partially guaranteed.

Young is a fine value at $14MM and Chicago should guarantee his contract, which would be movable even if he’s not in the team’s plans going forward. Markkanen and Satoransky seem less likely to return, though a sign-and-trade involving Markkanen is a possibility.

Finally, while Chicago doesn’t necessarily have to address the situation this offseason, LaVine’s contract is another storyline worth watching closely. He’s entering the final year of his deal and will be extension-eligible this offseason, but his maximum-salary extension (approximately $105MM over four years) is worth less than what he could expect as a free agent.

Assuming the Bulls have no plans to trade LaVine and he has no plans to accept that extension, there are two ways the situation could play out — the team could wait until he reaches free agency in 2022 to work out a new contract, or could renegotiate his 2021/22 salary in order to sign him to an extension worth more than his current four-year, $105MM max. A renegotiation, however, would require cap space that might be better spent on upgrades to the roster around LaVine.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Thaddeus Young ($8,190,000) 2
  • Tomas Satoransky ($6,000,000) 3
  • Total: $14,190,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 38 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Troy Brown (rookie scale)
  • Al-Farouq Aminu (veteran)
  • Zach LaVine (veteran)
  • Tomas Satoransky (veteran)
  • Nikola Vucevic (veteran)
  • Thaddeus Young (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Bulls could conceivably operate over or under the cap this offseason. For instance, if they want to guarantee Young’s salary, and perhaps re-sign free agents like Markkanen and Theis, an over-the-cap approach makes sense.

However, I expect the Bulls to seriously consider dipping below the cap instead. Even if they cut into their projected space by guaranteeing Young’s salary, they could create a little extra room under the cap by waiving and stretching Satoransky’s partial guarantee, or even by doing the same with Aminu. Clearing that cap room could be the most viable path to landing a point guard.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 5

Footnotes

  1. Aminu exercised his player option for 2021/22.
  2. Young’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
  3. Satoransky’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
  4. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Bulls for two seasons, Mokoka is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  5. This is a projected value. If the Bulls operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM), bi-annual exception ($3.7MM), and a trade exception ($2.5MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Conference Finals Outcomes

June 27th, 2021 at 7:29pm CST by JD Shaw

With the start of the NBA Finals around the corner, it’s time to examine who might represent the East and West in the annual championship series this year.

The Bucks and Hawks are currently tied 1-1, with Milwaukee winning Game 2 on Friday night 125-91. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 25 points, nine rebounds and six assists, while Hawks star Trae Young recorded just 15 points and nine turnovers.

In the West, the Suns lead the Clippers 3-1, with Game 5 set to commence on Monday night. Clippers superstar Kawhi Leonard (knee) has already been ruled out for the contest. Game 4 featured some ugly shooting performances from both sides, but Phoenix prevailed to take a commanding lead in the series.

Both the Clippers and Hawks have overcome long odds numerous times during the postseason — the Clippers came back to beat the Mavericks in a seven-game first-round series, then won four straight to beat the Jazz after trailing 2-0 the next round. The Hawks, meanwhile, were not expected to make it here.

“What I like about this team is we always beat the odds,” Hawks center Clint Capela recently said, as relayed by Joe Vardon of The Athletic. “People just don’t expect us to do it. People keep doubting us, and we just keep shocking them. In Houston, it was really a championship mentality every year, so it was almost like a must-win game, every game.”

With that in mind, what do you think? Do the Clippers have enough left in the tank to pull off a third postseason miracle? Will the Hawks win another series despite being widely viewed as the underdogs?

Take to the comments section below to share your opinions!

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

June 26th, 2021 at 3:59pm CST by Eli Cohen

The Kings are searching for answers. This year, they extended their playoff drought to a 15th straight season, tied with the Clippers (1977-91) for the longest in NBA history. They also failed to move up in the lottery, meaning that – barring a trade – they will be picking ninth in this year’s draft. To make matters worse, Marvin Bagley, the team’s highest draft pick since 1989, came under fire this week for liking a tweet about getting him out of Sacramento.

It’s not all bad news, however. Point guard De’Aaron Fox took a star leap this season, averaging 25+ points per game for the first time in his career and becoming the driving force of the offense. Combo guard Tyrese Haliburton, taken with the 12th pick in last year’s draft, was a revelation, averaging 13 PPG, 5.3 APG, and 1.3 SPG while shooting above 40% from three in 30 MPG. His stellar play earned him a berth on the All-Rookie First Team. Richaun Holmes also had a breakout year, cementing himself as a bona fide NBA starting center. The team also committed to bringing back head coach Luke Walton after a strong showing of support from the players.

While the Kings finished the season under .500 once again, their winning percentage (.431) was tied for the second-highest since 2008. While that may be a modest accomplishment, it does at least give reasons for optimism, though it wasn’t a step up from last season and the Western Conference is only getting stronger around them.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan:

The Kings’ decisions will start with the draft, where they have the ninth and 39th overall picks, but there will be plenty of choices that must be made from there. General manager Monte McNair has said that the Kings will be aggressive this off-season, whether in the draft, free agency, or trade.

As far as trades go, there are three clear candidates: Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Bagley.

Hield, at 28 years old, is the third-oldest player under contract in Sacramento and is coming off two successive seasons that were less productive than the one before them. He also doesn’t fit in a lineup with Fox and Haliburton, so if the Kings are looking to build around that backcourt pair, they would may have to either trade Hield or bring him off the bench, which isn’t easy to do with your second-highest paid player. Hield is still a high-level shooter who can put the ball on the floor, and is locked up on a long-term deal, which could prove attractive to teams looking to add shooting.

Barnes is on a descending contract over the next two seasons, and provides a good mix of defense and shot creation. The Kings would likely rather keep than deal him, as he fits nicely with the Fox/Haliburton pairing, but his continued presence is made more complicated by the unsolved puzzle of how the Kings build their frontcourt.

Bagley’s three seasons have been riddled with injuries, and even when healthy, he presents major question marks. Offensively, he’s more of a center than a power forward, but he’s not a good enough defender to anchor a defense. He showed the ability to make threes at a decent rate this season, hitting 34% on 2.5 attempts per game, and is a talented rebounder and athlete around the rim. Holmes helped cover for him defensively this year, but Holmes is a free agent, and the Kings may not be able to offer him enough to keep him in Sacramento long-term.

The Kings had the worst defense in the league last season, and if they’re unable to retain Holmes, it could get even worse, especially if they build around Bagley as their full-time center. There are a lot of interesting centers on the market this summer, but none are going to significantly change the trajectory of the team.

Bagley is also extension-eligible, and will be a free agent next summer, meaning the Kings have to decide how much they prioritize him. If they don’t want to invest in him long-term, packaging him with Hield, the ninth pick, or both, could be an enticing option for McNair, either as a draft-day trade up for a higher pick, or for a high-level prospect — the name Ben Simmons has been raised by some as a potential target, though the fit is questionable and it’s uncertain the Sixers would consider that enough of a return.

The other player who may figure into trade talks is guard Delon Wright. Wright is owed $8.5MM and will be an expiring contract. He brings an interesting blend of size, shooting and defense to either guard spot. The 29-year-old could help a playoff team off the bench, and could be useful in compiling salary in a trade for a non-star level player.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall pick ($4,603,320)
  • No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,603,320

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Marvin Bagley III (rookie scale)
  • Harrison Barnes (veteran)
  • Justin James (veteran)
  • Delon Wright (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Kings are in a bit of a tight spot financially, with only eight guaranteed deals taking up nearly $100MM in cap space. It’s likely they’ll operate as a team over the cap but under the luxury tax, but that will be impacted by how they approach Holmes’ free agency.

They won’t be able to offer Holmes more than the mid-level exception or the Early Bird exception (which is in the same neighborhood as the MLE) unless they open up cap room. It’s easy to envision Holmes drawing offers worth more than the mid-level on the open market, so if the Kings want to keep him following his breakout year, they may need to make a trade to create space.

With backup center Whiteside headed to free agency after a disappointing year, it seems likely that the Kings will guarantee the contracts of Jones and Metu, and 6’7″ wing James played well enough in his minutes to be worth keeping around another year.

Davis will be a big question for the Kings — after a strong rookie year that saw him named to 2020’s All-Rookie Second Team, the shooting guard saw his minutes dip in Toronto and was eventually traded to Sacramento, where he had some of the best games of his career. It’s unlikely that he’s offered a large deal in restricted free agency, making it easier for Sacramento to retain him. If they should do so, the Kings will have to find a way to re-balance their roster, as five of their 11 rostered players would be shooting guards.

Two-way player King only played six games for Sacramento, but scored 7.3 PPG on 36.4% from three in only 14 MPG. At 6’7″ and only 21 years old, he represents an interesting investment if the Kings should decide to sign him to a multiyear, partially guaranteed deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 7
  • Trade exception: $3,600,000
  • Trade exception: $2,009,019

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Fox’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Jones’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 9.
  3. James’ salary is expected to become fully guaranteed in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  4. Metu’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($881,938) after August 9.
  5. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Kings for two seasons, Guy is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  6. The cap hold for Brewer remains on the Kings’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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