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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 23rd, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After acquiring D’Angelo Russell at the 2020 trade deadline and using the first overall pick in last fall’s draft to snag Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves entered the 2020/21 campaign expecting to be in the play-in mix.

As was the case in 2019/20 though, Russell and franchise player Karl-Anthony Towns had trouble staying healthy at the same time. Through 50 games, Russell and Towns had appeared on the court together in just four of them. By that point, the Wolves owned a dismal 12-38 record, putting them well out of playoff contention.

There were some encouraging signs during the season’s final weeks. Edwards had a big second half, flashing star potential, and the Wolves were actually pretty competitive when both Russell and Towns were on the court — the team had a 13-11 record in games the duo played. Still, Minnesota will have to take a major step forward in 2021/22 to have a realistic shot at a playoff berth.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan:

Despite finishing near the bottom of the Western Conference standings in each of the last two years, the Timberwolves don’t have much cap flexibility going forward. Towns and Russell are on maximum-salary contracts, while Ricky Rubio, Malik Beasley, and Edwards are all earning eight-figure salaries. That means the team is unlikely to be a real player in free agency.

The Wolves badly need a starting power forward, however, and president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas figures to get creative in his quest to land one this offseason. If free agency isn’t a viable path and the draft isn’t an option (Minnesota doesn’t have its first- or second-round pick), the trade market is the the club’s best bet.

Despite the positive impact Rubio had on a young Wolves squad in 2020/21, he’ll be a trade candidate due to his $17.8MM expiring salary. Jake Layman and Juan Hernangomez, whose contract is only guaranteed for one more year, also have expiring deals that could be useful in trades. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wolves are more interested in shopping Beasley, who plays the same position as Edwards and still has $30MM in guaranteed money left on his contract over the next two years.

Although the Wolves had to send the No. 7 overall pick to Golden State to complete the Russell trade, they’re expected to get an infusion of young talent by signing draft-and-stash prospect Leandro Bolmaro, last year’s No. 23 overall pick. And conveying the 2021 first-rounder to the Warriors this season means all of the team’s future first-round picks are freed up for future trades. Rosas has shown a willingness to be aggressive, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s willing to include a first-rounder in a deal for a power forward.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Josh Okogie (rookie scale)
  • Jaylen Nowell (veteran)
  • Naz Reid (veteran)
  • Ricky Rubio (veteran)
  • D’Angelo Russell (veteran)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Timberwolves’ $127.7MM in guaranteed money puts them well over the projected cap. They’ll move closer to the projected tax line ($136.6MM) by guaranteeing Nowell’s and Reid’s salaries and by signing Bolmaro to his rookie contract.

While I expect Minnesota to explore moves that cut costs, it looks for the time being as if the team may forgo the full mid-level exception or the bi-annual exception — using either would hard-cap the Wolves at the tax apron, which figures to be in the neighborhood of $143MM, significantly hampering the team’s flexibility.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Reid’s salary becomes fully guaranteed in mid-to-late August (exact date TBD).
  2. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Timberwolves for two seasons, McLaughlin is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  3. The cap holds for Turner and Brooks remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Timberwolves move further below the tax line, they could gain access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Milwaukee Bucks Vs. Atlanta Hawks

June 23rd, 2021 at 1:41pm CST by Luke Adams

The two Eastern Conference teams left standing this season, the Bucks and Hawks, took very different paths to the conference semifinals.

Milwaukee, led by two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and All-Star Khris Middleton, has made the playoffs for five straight seasons, making it as far as the Eastern Finals in 2019, but never quite getting over the hump. This represents the club’s best chance to break through and compete for a title for the first time in decades.

Atlanta, meanwhile, last made the Eastern Finals back in 2015, when current Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer was at the helm. That 60-win squad was slowly torn down over the next year or two as the Hawks entered a rebuilding process that saw the team win just 24, 29, and 20 games in the three seasons from 2017/18 to ’19/20.

Even with ascendant young players like Trae Young and John Collins leading the way, and several veteran free agents added to the roster in the 2020 offseason, this season’s Hawks appeared lottery-bound, getting off to a 14-20 start. However, since Nate McMillan replaced Lloyd Pierce as Atlanta’s head coach, this has looked like a different team. The Hawks finished the regular season by winning 27 of their last 38 games and have now made an unexpectedly deep postseason run, upsetting the Knicks and Sixers in the first two rounds.

The Bucks are built to win now, having traded several future draft picks last fall in a blockbuster deal for Jrue Holiday. They’ll enter the Eastern Finals as big favorites to win the series (they’re listed as -460 on BetOnline.ag). And after knocking off the Nets – who had been considered the championship frontrunners – anything short of an appearance in the NBA Finals will be considered a disappointmentin Milwaukee.

The Hawks’ season, on the other hand, is already a huge success, and that won’t change even if the team is swept by the Bucks. That doesn’t mean Atlanta will go down quietly though — this group showed during the second half of the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs that it’s for real, and has the luxury of entering the Eastern Finals with the pressure relatively off. The Hawks are essentially playing with house money and shouldn’t have to carry the weight of a looming roster or coaching staff shakeup should they fall short of the NBA Finals.

With Game 1 set to tip off in a matter of hours, we want to get your thoughts on the Eastern Conference Finals. Do you expect the Bucks or Hawks to advance to the NBA Finals? How many games do you think it will take for a team to get to four wins? Do you expect the Eastern winner to ultimately take home the championship?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2021 NBA Draft Picks By Team

June 23rd, 2021 at 10:06am CST by Luke Adams

It wasn’t a great night for the Thunder at Tuesday’s draft lottery. The team had about a two-in-three chance that its own first-round pick would land in the top five and nearly a 50-50 chance that Houston’s pick would slide to No. 5, allowing OKC to swap the No. 18 selection for it. Instead, the Rockets kept their own pick and the Thunder’s selection slipped to No. 6.

Still, no NBA team has more draft picks in 2021 than the Thunder, who control three first-round selections and three more second-rounders.

The Pelicans, Pistons, Knicks, and Nets join them as teams that hold at least four draft picks this year. Those five clubs currently control 23 of the 60 picks in the 2021 draft, so it’s probably safe to assume they’ll be active on the trade market before or during the draft.

To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2021 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 60 picks by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Teams with more than two picks:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (6): 6, 16, 18, 34, 36, 55
  • Brooklyn Nets (5): 27, 29, 44, 49, 59
  • Detroit Pistons (4): 1, 37, 42, 52
  • New Orleans Pelicans (4): 17, 35, 43, 51
  • New York Knicks (4): 19, 21, 32, 58
  • Houston Rockets (3): 2, 23, 24
  • Toronto Raptors (3): 4, 46, 47
  • Orlando Magic (3): 5, 8, 33
  • Charlotte Hornets (3): 11, 56, 57
  • Indiana Pacers (3): 13, 54, 60
  • Philadelphia 76ers (3): 28, 50, 53

Teams with two picks:

  • Golden State Warriors: 7, 14
  • Sacramento Kings: 9, 39
  • San Antonio Spurs: 12, 41
  • Memphis Grizzlies: 10, 40
  • Atlanta Hawks: 20, 48

Teams with one pick:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers: 3
  • Washington Wizards: 15
  • Los Angeles Lakers: 22
  • Los Angeles Clippers: 25
  • Denver Nuggets: 26
  • Utah Jazz: 30
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 31
  • Chicago Bulls: 38
  • Boston Celtics: 45

Teams with no picks:

  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Miami Heat
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Portland Trail Blazers
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Full 2021 NBA Draft Order

June 22nd, 2021 at 9:50pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2021 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on July 29, or in the days leading up to draft night — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2021 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Houston Rockets
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers
  4. Toronto Raptors
  5. Orlando Magic
  6. Oklahoma City Thunder
  7. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. Memphis Grizzlies (from Pelicans)
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors
  15. Washington Wizards
  16. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Celtics)
  17. New Orleans Pelicans (from Grizzlies)
  18. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
  19. New York Knicks
  20. Atlanta Hawks
  21. New York Knicks (from Mavericks)
  22. Los Angeles Lakers
  23. Houston Rockets (from Trail Blazers)
  24. Houston Rockets (from Bucks)
  25. Los Angeles Clippers
  26. Denver Nuggets
  27. Brooklyn Nets
  28. Philadelphia 76ers
  29. Brooklyn Nets (from Suns)
  30. Utah Jazz

Second Round:

  1. Milwaukee Bucks (from Rockets)
  2. New York Knicks (from Pistons)
  3. Orlando Magic
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. New Orleans Pelicans (from Cavaliers)
  6. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Timberwolves)
  7. Charlotte Hornets (from Raptors via Pistons)
  8. Chicago Bulls (from Pelicans)
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. Memphis Grizzlies (from Bulls via Pelicans)
  11. San Antonio Spurs
  12. Detroit Pistons (from Hornets)
  13. New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
  14. Brooklyn Nets (from Pacers)
  15. Boston Celtics
  16. Toronto Raptors (from Grizzlies)
  17. Toronto Raptors (from Warriors)
  18. Atlanta Hawks (from Heat)
  19. Brooklyn Nets (from Hawks)
  20. Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
  21. New Orleans Pelicans (from Trail Blazers via Grizzlies)
  22. Detroit Pistons (from Lakers)
  23. Philadelphia 76ers (from Mavericks via Pelicans)
  24. Indiana Pacers (from Bucks)
  25. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
  26. Charlotte Hornets (from Clippers)
  27. Detroit Pistons (from Nets via Hornets)
  28. New York Knicks (from Sixers)
  29. Brooklyn Nets (from Suns)
  30. Indiana Pacers (from Jazz)
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Community Shootaround: Clippers-Suns Game 2

June 22nd, 2021 at 7:11pm CST by Eli Cohen

The Clippers have faced adversity in each of the first two rounds during this year’s playoffs, and the Western Conference Finals seem to be shaping up no differently.

The Clippers rallied from down 0-2 to Luka Doncic and the Mavericks to win Game Seven, thanks to a well-rounded team effort in round one. In round two, they once again started out down 0-2 to the one-seed Jazz, only to win the next four games in a row, weathering the loss of star Kawhi Leonard to take the final two games in convincing fashion. In doing so, the Clippers became the only team to overcome a 2-0 deficit in multiple series during a single playoff run.

Much of the team’s recent success has been due to Paul George‘s stellar two-way play. The All Star wing has averaged 31.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 5.3 APG, and shot 43.6% from three over his last six games, while providing lock-down, versatile defense. George previously spoke of the feeling of getting “the monkey off the Clippers’ back” in regard to making it past the second round, and it seems that he’s feeling some of that same looseness personally.

Now, once again, the Clippers find themselves down heading into Game Two. Despite another strong game from George, in which he scored 34 points and defended Suns‘ star Devin Booker well all night, it wasn’t enough, as Booker managed to overcome the defense en route to a 40-point triple-double and a six-point victory. Booker became the third-youngest player to record a 40-point triple-double in the playoffs – only Doncic and Oscar Robertson accomplished the feat earlier – and the first Sun to do so since Charles Barkley in 1993.

The Suns are as hot as they’ve ever been. They haven’t lost a game since the third game of the playoffs, and Booker proved his ability to put the team on his back and be a play-maker in the absence of Chris Paul, at least for one game. The question will be if he can sustain that level of play should Paul’s absence continue.

Even if Booker drops off, though, the Suns have generally had a wide range of players they’ve been able to rely on. Third-year center Deandre Ayton has had a breakout playoffs, and has been a consistent source of two-way production. Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and Torrey Craig have all provided scoring and shooting while forming a tight-knit defensive wing rotation, and Cameron Payne has been solid in his role, stepping up to score 11 points and dish out nine assists as he filled in for Paul.

On the other hand, the Clippers’ role players have been a little more sporadic in their contributions. Reggie Jackson has been a consistent source of offense, and Terance Mann has had moments of excellence, but if the Clippers want any hope at making it to the Finals, they’re going to need more from guys like Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, and Patrick Beverley, among others.

This is especially true because, while both players are still on unspecified timetables, it seems likely that Paul could be cleared for a return before Leonard.

All of that makes Game Two a crucial one for the Clippers, who want to avoid a third straight series down 2-0. If the Clippers can split the two road games, and get one while Paul is still out, it bodes well for their chances in the series. If not, they will still have a shot, but it certainly makes things tougher — especially if CP3 does return for the later games.

So the question of the day is: Who will win Game Two between the Clippers and Suns, and who will win the individual duel between George and Booker?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 22nd, 2021 at 2:50pm CST by Luke Adams

The Cavaliers‘ 2020/21 season looked pretty similar to most of the team’s LeBron James-less seasons over the last two decades. After remaining in the play-in hunt during the first half, Cleveland went into a tailspin to finish the year — the team lost 23 of its final 28 games and ended up with a 22-50 record, tied for the fourth-work mark in the NBA.

The Cavs have had no shortage of lottery luck over the years, winning the No. 1 pick in 2003, 2011, 2013, and 2014. But the team hasn’t picked in the top four since its latest rebuild began, and as a result hasn’t landed a clear-cut franchise player to build around.

There are reasons to be optimistic about the backcourt duo of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, both of whom have made significant positive strides since entering the league, but neither player is a great defender or a lock to be a future All-Star. Isaac Okoro, meanwhile, is already a strong wing defender, but will need to show more on offense than he did as a rookie in order to become a reliable starter.

Inserting themselves into the four-team James Harden deal in order to land on Jarrett Allen was a nice move by the Cavs, adding a young center to the existing core. Getting back into the playoff mix in the East will likely require the team to make a few more savvy moves like that one.

The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan:

Tonight’s lottery will be big for the Cavs, who will be looking to recapture some of the magic that helped them land the top pick so often in the past. With some luck, they could be in position to nab a future star like Jalen Suggs, Evan Mobley, or even Cade Cunningham. Even if they fall out of the top five, drafting a forward like Scottie Barnes wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize.

Following the draft, the Cavs figure to explore the free agent market for a veteran ball-handler who could be signed with the mid-level exception. Cleveland may also be active on the trade market, with Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman among those who could be shopped. And a trade or buyout are in play for Kevin Love. However, the team’s top priority this summer may be negotiating a pair of contracts with its own players.

First and foremost, Allen will be a restricted free agent, and after surrendering a first-round pick for him, the Cavs will want to make sure he’s locked up long-term. The size of Allen’s payday may ultimately hinge on whether another team makes a push to sign him to an offer sheet, which would increase his value, but he’ll likely be in line for a salary of at least $15-20MM per year either way.

One wild card in the Allen contract talks would be a scenario where the Cavs draft Mobley. Doing so wouldn’t make Cleveland decide to let Allen walk, but it would reduce his leverage, given the positional overlap between the two players.

The Cavs’ other big contract negotiation will be with Sexton, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension before the 2021/22 season begins. Given his ascendant offensive game – he averaged 24.3 points per game in 2020/21 – Sexton will likely be seeking the max or something close to it. The club figures to have some reservations about that sort of investment, given the guard’s defensive shortcomings and his limited ability to facilitate for teammates. The Cavs have been better with him off the court than on it in each of his three seasons to date.

As is the case with Allen and Mobley, if the Cavs end up drafting a guard like Cunningham or Suggs, it may diminish their enthusiasm to rush into a lucrative long-term deal with Sexton.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 3 overall pick ($8,075,160)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Collin Sexton (rookie scale)
  • Kevin Love (veteran)
  • Larry Nance Jr. (veteran)
  • Cedi Osman (veteran)
  • Taurean Prince (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Although the Cavaliers have a little less than $87MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2021/22 at the moment, the cap holds for Allen and the No. 3 overall pick will push them well over the $100MM threshold. That will make it an easy choice to operate as an over-the-cap team unless the club makes a cost-cutting move or two.

Even after accounting for new deals for Allen and possibly Hartenstein, the Cavs should have plenty of breathing room below the luxury-tax line, so they could make use of their full mid-level exception this offseason.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $4,200,000
  • Trade exception: $1,717,981

Footnotes

  1. Hartenstein will be eligible for restricted free agency if he opts out.
  2. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

June 22nd, 2021 at 8:26am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Clippers and Suns. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of five prospects widely considered to be a level above the rest of the class. Cade Cunningham leads the way, followed in some order by Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Kuminga. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2021 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • Note: The Thunder will have the ability to swap the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for this selection if it falls outside of the top four (47.9% chance).
  2. Detroit Pistons
  3. Orlando Magic
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers
  6. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
    • Note: The Timberwolves will retain this pick if it moves into the top three (27.6% chance).
  7. Toronto Raptors
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (20.3% chance).
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Pistons, and Magic have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Thunder (45.1%), Cavaliers (45.1%), Timberwolves (37.2%), and Raptors (31.9%) have the best odds to land in the top four.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Three trades have the potential to shake up Tuesday’s lottery results in a significant way, potentially altering the course of multiple franchises. Here are the details on those deals:

Rockets/Thunder

The Thunder have the ability to swap either their own first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for the Rockets‘ first-rounder, but only if Houston’ selection lands outside the top four.

Since Oklahoma City’s own pick is also a lottery selection, there are essentially just two scenarios in play here:

  1. The Rockets’ pick lands in the top four and Houston keeps it. The Thunder would keep their own pick, along with the Heat’s pick at No. 18 (52.1% chance).
  2. The Rockets’ pick lands at No. 5 and the Thunder swap the No. 18 pick for it (47.9% chance).

The Thunder’s ability to swap picks with the Rockets won’t carry over to next season if Houston’s pick is protected.

Timberwolves/Warriors

The Timberwolves owe the Warriors their top-three protected first-round pick, so Golden State will receive the pick if it lands at No. 4 or lower. Technically, it can’t end up at No. 5, but 1-4 and 6-10 are all possibilities.

There’s a 27.6% chance this pick lands in the top three and remains with Minnesota, with a 72.4% chance Golden State gets it. It has a 9.6% chance of moving up to No. 4, and a 62.8% chance of ending up between 6-10. No. 7 (29.7%) or No. 8 (20.6%) are the most likely outcomes.

If the Wolves’ pick lands in the top three and is protected, they’d owe the Warriors their unprotected first-round pick in 2022.

Bulls/Magic

The Bulls owe the Magic their top-four protected first-round pick. It can’t land between 5-7, but Orlando will get it if it ends up in the 8-12 range.

There’s a 20.3% chance the pick will move into the top four, allowing Chicago to keep it, with a 79.7% chance Orlando gets it. No. 8 (34.5%) or No. 9 (36.2%) are, by far, the most likely outcomes.

If the Bulls’ pick lands in the top four and is protected, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-round pick in 2022.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The on-camera representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon (former player)
  2. Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace (former player)
  3. Orlando Magic: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder: Nazr Mohammed (OKC Blue general manager / Thunder pro scout)
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Koby Altman (general manager)
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards
  7. Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet
  8. Chicago Bulls: Marc Eversley (general manager)
  9. Sacramento Kings: Monte McNair (general manager)
  10. New Orleans Pelicans: Swin Cash (VP of basketball operations and team development)
  11. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges
  12. San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt (managing partner)
  13. Indiana Pacers: Nancy Leonard (former Pacers executive / widow of Hall-of-Famer Slick Leonard)
  14. Golden State Warriors: Rick Welts (president / COO)

Lottery Format:

This will be the third year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results in the last two years have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. If those seventh and eighth lottery seeds get lucky again this year, it’d be great news for Toronto and Chicago.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 19th, 2021 at 4:02pm CST by Eli Cohen

With the offseason trades of Chris Paul and Dennis Schröder last fall, the Thunder officially transitioned from playoff contention to full-scale rebuild.

The team added four first-round picks and multiple second-round picks through deals for Paul, Kelly Oubre (acquired from the Suns in the Paul trade), Danny Green (acquired in the Schröder trade), and other maneuvers, while adding one of the highest-upside rookies in the draft class, the very raw Aleksej Pokusevski, along with solid second round pick Theo Maledon.

An injury limited star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 35 games, while last season’s breakout rookie Luguentz Dort was also in and out of the lineup due to injury. Finally, the team made the decision to bench Al Horford for the second half of the season to allow the young players more minutes and opportunity.

All these factors contributed to the Thunder having their worst year since the 2008/09 season, when they went 23-59 and were rewarded with the third pick, which they used to draft James Harden. The Thunder will hope for similar lottery luck this summer.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:

After making a surprise move to trade Horford, former undrafted center Moses Brown, and a 2023 second-round pick for Kemba Walker, the 16th pick in this year’s draft, and a 2025 second round pick, the Thunder are in an unparalleled position to make a trade, either for a disgruntled young star, or to move up in this year’s draft.

They have five picks in the top 36 of this year’s draft, including three top-2o selections, and have 18 total first round picks over the next six years. They also will be able to swap the 18th pick for the Rockets’ pick this year if it drops out of the top four (there’s about a 48% chance this will happen). Their own pick has a 45% chance of landing in the top four. It’s unlikely the Thunder will use all six of their picks in this year’s draft, making them a prime candidate to make more trades.

Walker, the lone veteran on the roster, stands as a clear target to be moved, either in a draft-day trade or as part of a separate deal in free agency. Walker is owed nearly $74MM over the next two years, assuming he picks up his 2022/23 player option, but he can still be a dangerous scorer and play-maker, despite a down year.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall pick ($5,988,000)
  • No. 16 overall pick ($3,2146,80)
  • No. 18 overall pick ($2,901,240)
  • No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 55 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $12,103,920

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rookie scale)
  • Isaiah Roby (veteran)
  • Kemba Walker (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Thunder have the flexibility to go in a number of different directions this offseason, but the most likely outcome – at least to start the offseason – is that they operate as an above-the-cap team in order to retain their many trade player exceptions, as well as the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.

Williams, Roby and Deck all played well for the Thunder this season and seem likely to have their contracts guaranteed. The cap hold for the Thunder’s first first round pick is likely to be in $5.5MM-$8.3MM range. If the Thunder want to use cap space to throw a lucrative offer at a restricted free agent, they will have to renounce their exceptions.

Much of their cap situation will revolve around whether they’re able to unload Walker’s money to a team that needs a point guard — the Knicks stand out as one team with a need at the position and the cap space to absorb him without needing to send major money back to OKC.

The other big question facing the Thunder is if they can come to terms with Gilgeous-Alexander on a max rookie scale extension. If so, he’ll likely command a five-year, maximum-salary contract that would pay him a projected $167MM+ and would run until the 2026/27 season.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
  • Trade exception: $27,528,088
  • Trade exception: $12,800,000
  • Trade exception: $10,100,000
  • Trade exception: $9,590,602
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981
  • Trade exception: $908,960
  • Trade exception: $865,853
  • Trade exception: $850,600
  • Trade exception: $332,940

Footnotes

  1. Roby’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 4.
  2. The cap holds for these players remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values. If the Thunder use cap room, they’d renounce these exceptions and their TPEs and would only have the room exception ($4.9MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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Community Shootaround: Bucks-Nets Game 7

June 18th, 2021 at 6:46pm CST by Dana Gauruder

There’s been plenty of activity around the NBA the last couple of weeks. A flurry of coaching changes, some front office moves, finger-pointing regarding injuries and star players opting in or out of the Tokyo Olympics. We even saw a major trade – Kemba Walker and another first-round pick headed to Oklahoma City, Al Horford returning to Boston – on Friday.

All this has somewhat overshadowed the ultimatum aim – winning a championship. Other than the Suns’ sweep of the Jamal Murray-less Nuggets, the conference semifinals have been entertaining, with several wild comebacks tossed in.

The Sixers and Jazz are fighting for their playoff lives on Friday and the Bucks–Nets matchup has already reached a Game 7.

The Milwaukee-Brooklyn series figured to be hotly contested, though it didn’t look that way after the first two games. The Nets blew out the Bucks to take a 2-0 lead but injury issues to James Harden and Kyrie Irving helped the Bucks storm back in the series.

Milwaukee squandered a chance to win on the Nets’ home floor in Game 5, but big offensive games from Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 6 forced Saturday’s do-or-die showdown at Barclays Center. Harden toughed it out through 40 minutes, but only took nine shots and scored 16 points.

Brooklyn clearly needs another monster game from Kevin Durant (33.3 PPG in the series) to advance, especially with Irving remaining sidelined. Antetokounmpo has won two MVP awards, but star players are judged by playoff success. Carrying his team to a Game 7 road victory would be a defining moment in his career.

That leads us to our question of the day: Who will win Game 7 between the Bucks and Nets and what will make the difference?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Playoff Edition

June 17th, 2021 at 7:02pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. With the playoffs in full swing, we take a look at players on teams still alive in the postseason:

Lou Williams, Hawks, 34, PG/SG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $24MM deal in 2018

When the Clippers and Hawks swapped veteran point guards at the trade deadline, the general consensus was that Los Angeles pulled off a coup landing Rajon Rondo. It doesn’t look that way right now. Rondo has only played nine minutes in the last four games against Utah, while Williams had 15 points, three assists and two steals in 23 minutes during Atlanta’s dramatic Game 5 comeback at Philadelphia on Wednesday.

Williams may not possess Rondo’s leadership qualities, but he’s been instant offense for many seasons wherever he’s played. The 34-year-old has been in the league since 2005 but he can stick around a few more seasons due to his offensive prowess.

Jeff Green, Nets, 34, PF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.56MM deal in 2020

It’s amazing to think that the Jazz had no use for Green midway through last season and put him on waivers. The Rockets scooped him up and he was highly productive. He’s doing the same thing for the Nets. After a solid regular season, Green battled a foot injury that sidelined him for six postseason games. Back in action, Green delivered a monster performance in Game 5 against Milwaukee, firing in 27 points while draining 7-of-8 3-point attempts. Green won’t have any trouble finding work as an unrestricted free agent this summer, whether he re-signs with Brooklyn or joins another contender.

Reggie Jackson, Clippers, 31, PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.33MM deal in 2020

A TNT broadcaster called Jackson “Mr. June” as he made several clutch baskets in Game 5 at Utah on Wednesday. He’s not on the level of baseball’s “Mr. October” but this Reggie Jackson is proving to be a consistent playoff performer for the Clippers. He averaged 15.4 PPG against Dallas in the opening round, including a 25-point outing in Game 6. He scored 29 points in Game 2 and 22 in Game 5 against the Jazz. Jackson has also kept his turnovers down to a minimum. After having to settle for the veteran’s minimum in free agency last year, he’s due for a substantial raise when he enters the market again this summer.

Mike Conley, Jazz, 33, PG (Down) – Signed to a five-year, $152.6MM deal in 2016

Conley finally got his first taste of the All-Star Game this season. He got off to an impressive start in these playoffs, scoring 20 or more points in the first three games against Memphis. The injury bug soon bit him as Utah closed out the series and he’s been sidelined with a hamstring strain throughout the second round. That’s the main concern with Conley as he enters unrestricted free agency – he’s had numerous leg injuries in recent seasons. That could limit the amount of years teams will be willing to offer him.

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