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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

June 28th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls overhauled both their front office and their coaching staff in 2020, replacing longtime basketball operations executives John Paxson and Gar Forman with Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley, who in turn replaced head coach Jim Boylen with Billy Donovan.

Despite the leadership changes, the Bulls didn’t turn over many spots on a roster that went 22-43 in 2019/20, so expectations for Chicago were modest entering ’20/21 — oddsmakers projected them to win no more than 30 games.

But the team aimed higher. Firmly in the play-in mix more than halfway through the season, the Bulls’ new top decision-makers decided to take a big swing, sending a pair of future first-round picks and former lottery selection Wendell Carter to Orlando in a trade for Nikola Vucevic.

The short-term results weren’t great. The Bulls, 19-24 at the time of the trade, failed to make any headway with Vucevic on the roster, finishing the season on a 12-17 run and missing out on a play-in spot. To make matters worse, the top-four protected 2021 pick the Bulls traded to the Magic in the blockbuster deadline deal landed at No. 8.

Still, the Bulls’ front office remains confident that the Vucevic acquisition will pay dividends going forward, once the All-Star center has a full offseason and training camp to get comfortable with his new team. Chicago will enter the 2021/22 season seeking its first playoff berth since 2017.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan:

With no first-round pick at their disposal, the Bulls will turn to free agency or the trade market to try address their point guard position, which has been an Achilles heel for the franchise since Derrick Rose‘s All-Star days.

The good news is that there’s no shortage of options available in free agency this summer — when we ranked our top 20 free agents at the start of June, seven players on our list were point guards. Some of those veterans, such as Chris Paul and Mike Conley, may end up simply returning to their current teams, but the Bulls have the cap flexibility to pursue the ones who will test the market, including perhaps Lonzo Ball, Dennis Schröder, and Spencer Dinwiddie.

The Bulls also face decisions on Lauri Markkanen, a restricted free agent, and Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky, whose salaries for 2021/22 are only partially guaranteed.

Young is a fine value at $14MM and Chicago should guarantee his contract, which would be movable even if he’s not in the team’s plans going forward. Markkanen and Satoransky seem less likely to return, though a sign-and-trade involving Markkanen is a possibility.

Finally, while Chicago doesn’t necessarily have to address the situation this offseason, LaVine’s contract is another storyline worth watching closely. He’s entering the final year of his deal and will be extension-eligible this offseason, but his maximum-salary extension (approximately $105MM over four years) is worth less than what he could expect as a free agent.

Assuming the Bulls have no plans to trade LaVine and he has no plans to accept that extension, there are two ways the situation could play out — the team could wait until he reaches free agency in 2022 to work out a new contract, or could renegotiate his 2021/22 salary in order to sign him to an extension worth more than his current four-year, $105MM max. A renegotiation, however, would require cap space that might be better spent on upgrades to the roster around LaVine.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Thaddeus Young ($8,190,000) 2
  • Tomas Satoransky ($6,000,000) 3
  • Total: $14,190,000

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 38 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Troy Brown (rookie scale)
  • Al-Farouq Aminu (veteran)
  • Zach LaVine (veteran)
  • Tomas Satoransky (veteran)
  • Nikola Vucevic (veteran)
  • Thaddeus Young (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Bulls could conceivably operate over or under the cap this offseason. For instance, if they want to guarantee Young’s salary, and perhaps re-sign free agents like Markkanen and Theis, an over-the-cap approach makes sense.

However, I expect the Bulls to seriously consider dipping below the cap instead. Even if they cut into their projected space by guaranteeing Young’s salary, they could create a little extra room under the cap by waiving and stretching Satoransky’s partial guarantee, or even by doing the same with Aminu. Clearing that cap room could be the most viable path to landing a point guard.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 5

Footnotes

  1. Aminu exercised his player option for 2021/22.
  2. Young’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
  3. Satoransky’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
  4. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Bulls for two seasons, Mokoka is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  5. This is a projected value. If the Bulls operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM), bi-annual exception ($3.7MM), and a trade exception ($2.5MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Conference Finals Outcomes

June 27th, 2021 at 7:29pm CST by JD Shaw

With the start of the NBA Finals around the corner, it’s time to examine who might represent the East and West in the annual championship series this year.

The Bucks and Hawks are currently tied 1-1, with Milwaukee winning Game 2 on Friday night 125-91. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 25 points, nine rebounds and six assists, while Hawks star Trae Young recorded just 15 points and nine turnovers.

In the West, the Suns lead the Clippers 3-1, with Game 5 set to commence on Monday night. Clippers superstar Kawhi Leonard (knee) has already been ruled out for the contest. Game 4 featured some ugly shooting performances from both sides, but Phoenix prevailed to take a commanding lead in the series.

Both the Clippers and Hawks have overcome long odds numerous times during the postseason — the Clippers came back to beat the Mavericks in a seven-game first-round series, then won four straight to beat the Jazz after trailing 2-0 the next round. The Hawks, meanwhile, were not expected to make it here.

“What I like about this team is we always beat the odds,” Hawks center Clint Capela recently said, as relayed by Joe Vardon of The Athletic. “People just don’t expect us to do it. People keep doubting us, and we just keep shocking them. In Houston, it was really a championship mentality every year, so it was almost like a must-win game, every game.”

With that in mind, what do you think? Do the Clippers have enough left in the tank to pull off a third postseason miracle? Will the Hawks win another series despite being widely viewed as the underdogs?

Take to the comments section below to share your opinions!

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

June 26th, 2021 at 3:59pm CST by Eli Cohen

The Kings are searching for answers. This year, they extended their playoff drought to a 15th straight season, tied with the Clippers (1977-91) for the longest in NBA history. They also failed to move up in the lottery, meaning that – barring a trade – they will be picking ninth in this year’s draft. To make matters worse, Marvin Bagley, the team’s highest draft pick since 1989, came under fire this week for liking a tweet about getting him out of Sacramento.

It’s not all bad news, however. Point guard De’Aaron Fox took a star leap this season, averaging 25+ points per game for the first time in his career and becoming the driving force of the offense. Combo guard Tyrese Haliburton, taken with the 12th pick in last year’s draft, was a revelation, averaging 13 PPG, 5.3 APG, and 1.3 SPG while shooting above 40% from three in 30 MPG. His stellar play earned him a berth on the All-Rookie First Team. Richaun Holmes also had a breakout year, cementing himself as a bona fide NBA starting center. The team also committed to bringing back head coach Luke Walton after a strong showing of support from the players.

While the Kings finished the season under .500 once again, their winning percentage (.431) was tied for the second-highest since 2008. While that may be a modest accomplishment, it does at least give reasons for optimism, though it wasn’t a step up from last season and the Western Conference is only getting stronger around them.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan:

The Kings’ decisions will start with the draft, where they have the ninth and 39th overall picks, but there will be plenty of choices that must be made from there. General manager Monte McNair has said that the Kings will be aggressive this off-season, whether in the draft, free agency, or trade.

As far as trades go, there are three clear candidates: Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Bagley.

Hield, at 28 years old, is the third-oldest player under contract in Sacramento and is coming off two successive seasons that were less productive than the one before them. He also doesn’t fit in a lineup with Fox and Haliburton, so if the Kings are looking to build around that backcourt pair, they would may have to either trade Hield or bring him off the bench, which isn’t easy to do with your second-highest paid player. Hield is still a high-level shooter who can put the ball on the floor, and is locked up on a long-term deal, which could prove attractive to teams looking to add shooting.

Barnes is on a descending contract over the next two seasons, and provides a good mix of defense and shot creation. The Kings would likely rather keep than deal him, as he fits nicely with the Fox/Haliburton pairing, but his continued presence is made more complicated by the unsolved puzzle of how the Kings build their frontcourt.

Bagley’s three seasons have been riddled with injuries, and even when healthy, he presents major question marks. Offensively, he’s more of a center than a power forward, but he’s not a good enough defender to anchor a defense. He showed the ability to make threes at a decent rate this season, hitting 34% on 2.5 attempts per game, and is a talented rebounder and athlete around the rim. Holmes helped cover for him defensively this year, but Holmes is a free agent, and the Kings may not be able to offer him enough to keep him in Sacramento long-term.

The Kings had the worst defense in the league last season, and if they’re unable to retain Holmes, it could get even worse, especially if they build around Bagley as their full-time center. There are a lot of interesting centers on the market this summer, but none are going to significantly change the trajectory of the team.

Bagley is also extension-eligible, and will be a free agent next summer, meaning the Kings have to decide how much they prioritize him. If they don’t want to invest in him long-term, packaging him with Hield, the ninth pick, or both, could be an enticing option for McNair, either as a draft-day trade up for a higher pick, or for a high-level prospect — the name Ben Simmons has been raised by some as a potential target, though the fit is questionable and it’s uncertain the Sixers would consider that enough of a return.

The other player who may figure into trade talks is guard Delon Wright. Wright is owed $8.5MM and will be an expiring contract. He brings an interesting blend of size, shooting and defense to either guard spot. The 29-year-old could help a playoff team off the bench, and could be useful in compiling salary in a trade for a non-star level player.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall pick ($4,603,320)
  • No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,603,320

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Marvin Bagley III (rookie scale)
  • Harrison Barnes (veteran)
  • Justin James (veteran)
  • Delon Wright (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Kings are in a bit of a tight spot financially, with only eight guaranteed deals taking up nearly $100MM in cap space. It’s likely they’ll operate as a team over the cap but under the luxury tax, but that will be impacted by how they approach Holmes’ free agency.

They won’t be able to offer Holmes more than the mid-level exception or the Early Bird exception (which is in the same neighborhood as the MLE) unless they open up cap room. It’s easy to envision Holmes drawing offers worth more than the mid-level on the open market, so if the Kings want to keep him following his breakout year, they may need to make a trade to create space.

With backup center Whiteside headed to free agency after a disappointing year, it seems likely that the Kings will guarantee the contracts of Jones and Metu, and 6’7″ wing James played well enough in his minutes to be worth keeping around another year.

Davis will be a big question for the Kings — after a strong rookie year that saw him named to 2020’s All-Rookie Second Team, the shooting guard saw his minutes dip in Toronto and was eventually traded to Sacramento, where he had some of the best games of his career. It’s unlikely that he’s offered a large deal in restricted free agency, making it easier for Sacramento to retain him. If they should do so, the Kings will have to find a way to re-balance their roster, as five of their 11 rostered players would be shooting guards.

Two-way player King only played six games for Sacramento, but scored 7.3 PPG on 36.4% from three in only 14 MPG. At 6’7″ and only 21 years old, he represents an interesting investment if the Kings should decide to sign him to a multiyear, partially guaranteed deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 7
  • Trade exception: $3,600,000
  • Trade exception: $2,009,019

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Fox’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Jones’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 9.
  3. James’ salary is expected to become fully guaranteed in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  4. Metu’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($881,938) after August 9.
  5. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Kings for two seasons, Guy is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  6. The cap hold for Brewer remains on the Kings’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

June 25th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After trading away Anthony Davis in 2019, the Pelicans moved another longtime standout during the 2020 offseason, sending Jrue Holiday to Milwaukee. While New Orleans’ return in the four-team deal was heavy on draft picks that could pay off down the line, it also included veterans Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe.

The idea was that the Pelicans weren’t giving up on their goal of making the playoffs in 2021 by trading Holiday, since they were getting two productive veterans in the deal — they even extended Adams as part of the trade, locking him up for two extra seasons.

However, instead of helping lead the Pelicans to the playoffs, Adams and Bledsoe struggled to fit in New Orleans. Adams and Zion Williamson weren’t a great match in the frontcourt, and Bledsoe’s efficiency cratered — his .421 FG% and .687 FT% were his worst marks since his rookie year.

Throw in the fact that new head coach Stan Van Gundy wasn’t able to deliver on his promise to turn the Pelicans’ defense around and it’s perhaps no surprise that the team didn’t take a step forward in 2020/21, falling out of play-in contention during the season’s final weeks.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan:

Van Gundy is gone after just one year, so the first item on the Pelicans’ offseason to-do list will be hiring his replacement. New Orleans is seeking a coach who can better connect with the young players on the roster — veteran assistants like Jacque Vaughn and Charles Lee are among the candidates receiving consideration.

Once the coaching search is over, president of basketball operations David Griffin will face a series of challenging offseason decisions, including the looming restricted free agencies of Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart. Both players are due for substantial raises, potentially creating a cap crunch for the Pelicans, who presumably aren’t eager to pay the luxury tax and would be approaching that threshold if they bring both RFAs back on fair-market deals.

Still, the Pelicans won’t want to lose their solid young players for nothing. Star forwards Williamson and Brandon Ingram have both expressed a desire to continue playing with Ball, in particular, and Hart has reportedly been a strong locker room voice for the young squad.

In order to comfortably re-sign both players and potentially use their mid-level exception, the Pelicans may explore trading Bledsoe and/or Adams to cut costs. Neither player is a positive asset at this point, but neither contract is so onerous that it can’t be moved.

While it’s never ideal for a rebuilding team to surrender draft picks in order to clear unwanted contracts from its cap, the Pelicans are uniquely positioned following their Davis and Holiday mega-deals to sacrifice a pick or two in a salary dump and not be significantly set back by it.

Ideally, they’d deal from their cache of second-round picks (they have four in 2021 alone), but if they need to include a protected first-rounder, the Pelicans should seriously consider giving up a selection previously acquired from the Lakers or Bucks. If they want to get back to the postseason sooner rather than later, it’s worth being aggressive this summer rather than waiting another year or two for those contracts to expire.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 10 overall pick ($4,373,160)
  • No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 43 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 53 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $4,373,160

Extension-Eligible Players

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Accounting for their nine players on guaranteed contracts, Louzada’s minimum-salary team option, and the cap hold for the No. 10 pick brings the Pelicans’ team salary to $97MM+. It seems safe to assume the club will try to retain at least one of Ball and Hart, if not both, so New Orleans appears likely to operate over the cap.

However, with so many variables in play, it’s tricky to project which exceptions the Pelicans might have access to. Re-signing Ball and Hart without cutting costs elsewhere would likely put team salary at the tax line, limiting the club to the taxpayer mid-level exception. But letting one of those RFAs go – or trading Adams and/or Bledsoe to save some money – could create enough flexibility for New Orleans to use the full mid-level and/or the bi-annual exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $3,897,436

Footnotes

  1. Louzada will be eligible for restricted free agency if his option is declined.
  2. These are projected values. If the Pelicans are at or near the tax line, they may instead have access to just the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Rockets Lottery Pick

June 24th, 2021 at 9:53pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Pistons hit the jackpot in the lottery on Tuesday, getting the top pick for the first time in over 50 years.

They essentially flipped positions with the Rockets, who finished with the worst regular-season record, as Detroit entered the lottery in the No. 2 slot.

Pistons general manager Troy Weaver didn’t immediately commit to Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham, who has been considered by most pundits to be the top prospect in the draft.

Weaver blew up the Pistons’ roster in his first year on the job, so it’s not out of the question he’ll go outside the box and draft another player or trade down. But the most likely outcome is that the Pistons will select the player who has drawn comparisons to Luka Doncic, Penny Hardaway and another former Detroit lottery pick, Grant Hill.

That leaves Houston in an interesting spot. There’s three players generally considered candidates for the second spot – Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs, USC big man Evan Mobley and G League shooting guard Jalen Green.

The most notable players on the Rockets’ roster are oft-injured guards John Wall and Eric Gordon, big man Christian Wood and All-Rookie First Team forward Jae’Sean Tate. So, there’s needs across the board and the rebuilding team could go in any number of directions.

If they want a solid two-player point guard with superior leadership skills, they could choose Suggs. If they want to a highly-skilled power forward built for the modern NBA game, they could grab Mobley. If they’re seeking a prolific scorer on the wing, they could snare Green.

That leads us to our question of the day: Assuming the Pistons take Cade Cunningham with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, which player should the Rockets select at No. 2?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

June 24th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Raptors won a title in 2019, came within one win of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020, and had been a playoff team for seven consecutive seasons entering 2020/21. So it was a bit of a surprise that the club fell off so drastically, winning just 27 games this season after piling up 53 victories in ’19/20.

A number of factors contributed to the Raptors’ plunge down the standings. The team lost Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in free agency and their replacement centers (Aron Baynes and Alex Len) didn’t really work out. The club was hit by injuries and a midseason COVID-19 outbreak. And perhaps most notably, the Raptors played all their home games in Tampa, having been displaced from Toronto by border restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic. Every NBA team was affected by COVID-19, but no other club was subjected to what amounted to a six-month road trip.

It was a disappointing year for a franchise that hadn’t won fewer than 48 games in a season since 2012/13, but with core players like Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby locked up long-term, there’s reason to believe Toronto won’t be back in the lottery a year from now.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:

The Raptors’ decision not to push too hard for a play-in spot late in the regular season paid off, as the team got some luck on lottery night and secured the No. 4 overall pick. The dream scenario would be two-way big man Evan Mobley falling to Toronto, but Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs would be a fine consolation prize.

President of basketball operations Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster may consider trading up or down, but given how highly those top four prospects are regarded by scouts and draft experts, the safest and easiest play would be to stand pat and select whichever one drops to No. 4.

Speaking of Ujiri, there has still been no word on a potential contract extension for the former Executive of the Year, whose deal with the Raptors expires this summer. But there’s also been little indication that he plans to move on from the franchise. He’s perhaps the Raptors’ most important “free agent” this summer, and signing him to a new long-term deal would be a major win for the organization.

Kyle Lowry also has a claim to the title of Toronto’s most important free agent. One of the greatest players in team history, Lowry has been with the Raptors since 2012, making six All-Star teams during that time and playing a key role on 2019’s championship squad.

Lowry was nearly moved at the trade deadline, but no team was willing to meet Toronto’s asking price. Having failed to acquire any assets for Lowry at that point, the Raptors may feel more compelled this summer to either bring him back on a new contract or work out a sign-and-trade deal with his new team, rather than losing him for nothing. The 35-year-old clearly has an affinity for Toronto, but may want to join a club that’s a little closer to title contention. His free agency will be one of the most interesting cases to watch this offseason.

If they don’t land Mobley in the draft, acquiring a big man via trade or free agency will be high on the Raptors’ list of summer priorities. Depending on what happens with Lowry, the team could have some cap room available to address that issue.

Re-signing RFA-to-be Gary Trent Jr., acquired in a deadline deal with Portland, will also be high on Toronto’s to-do list.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 4 overall pick ($7,280,520)
  • No. 46 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 47 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $7,280,520

Extension-Eligible Players

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Depending on whether they bring back Lowry, the Raptors could operate either over or under the cap this summer. Accounting for their four guaranteed contracts and Boucher’s non-guaranteed salary, along with cap holds for Trent and the No. 4 pick, would leave the Raptors with approximately $18MM in cap room, assuming everyone else (including Lowry) is renounced or waived.

My best guess for now is that the Raptors will enter free agency expecting to operate over the cap in order to either re-sign Lowry or get something back in a sign-and-trade for him. But that plan could change quickly if Lowry goes to a team with the cap room to sign him outright — or if the Raps believe the veteran guard will leave and decide their own potential cap space is worth more than his sign-and-trade rights.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 9
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 9
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981

Footnotes

  1. Hood’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 27.
  2. Baynes’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 5.
  3. Boucher’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 8.
  4. Bembry’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 10.
  5. Watanabe’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($375K) after August 9.
  6. Watson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 6.
  7. The cap holds for these players remain on the Raptors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  8. This is a projected value. Lowry’s cap hit will be the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA service.
  9. These are projected values. If the Raptors decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and their trade exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

June 23rd, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After acquiring D’Angelo Russell at the 2020 trade deadline and using the first overall pick in last fall’s draft to snag Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves entered the 2020/21 campaign expecting to be in the play-in mix.

As was the case in 2019/20 though, Russell and franchise player Karl-Anthony Towns had trouble staying healthy at the same time. Through 50 games, Russell and Towns had appeared on the court together in just four of them. By that point, the Wolves owned a dismal 12-38 record, putting them well out of playoff contention.

There were some encouraging signs during the season’s final weeks. Edwards had a big second half, flashing star potential, and the Wolves were actually pretty competitive when both Russell and Towns were on the court — the team had a 13-11 record in games the duo played. Still, Minnesota will have to take a major step forward in 2021/22 to have a realistic shot at a playoff berth.

The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan:

Despite finishing near the bottom of the Western Conference standings in each of the last two years, the Timberwolves don’t have much cap flexibility going forward. Towns and Russell are on maximum-salary contracts, while Ricky Rubio, Malik Beasley, and Edwards are all earning eight-figure salaries. That means the team is unlikely to be a real player in free agency.

The Wolves badly need a starting power forward, however, and president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas figures to get creative in his quest to land one this offseason. If free agency isn’t a viable path and the draft isn’t an option (Minnesota doesn’t have its first- or second-round pick), the trade market is the the club’s best bet.

Despite the positive impact Rubio had on a young Wolves squad in 2020/21, he’ll be a trade candidate due to his $17.8MM expiring salary. Jake Layman and Juan Hernangomez, whose contract is only guaranteed for one more year, also have expiring deals that could be useful in trades. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wolves are more interested in shopping Beasley, who plays the same position as Edwards and still has $30MM in guaranteed money left on his contract over the next two years.

Although the Wolves had to send the No. 7 overall pick to Golden State to complete the Russell trade, they’re expected to get an infusion of young talent by signing draft-and-stash prospect Leandro Bolmaro, last year’s No. 23 overall pick. And conveying the 2021 first-rounder to the Warriors this season means all of the team’s future first-round picks are freed up for future trades. Rosas has shown a willingness to be aggressive, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s willing to include a first-rounder in a deal for a power forward.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Josh Okogie (rookie scale)
  • Jaylen Nowell (veteran)
  • Naz Reid (veteran)
  • Ricky Rubio (veteran)
  • D’Angelo Russell (veteran)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Timberwolves’ $127.7MM in guaranteed money puts them well over the projected cap. They’ll move closer to the projected tax line ($136.6MM) by guaranteeing Nowell’s and Reid’s salaries and by signing Bolmaro to his rookie contract.

While I expect Minnesota to explore moves that cut costs, it looks for the time being as if the team may forgo the full mid-level exception or the bi-annual exception — using either would hard-cap the Wolves at the tax apron, which figures to be in the neighborhood of $143MM, significantly hampering the team’s flexibility.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Reid’s salary becomes fully guaranteed in mid-to-late August (exact date TBD).
  2. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Timberwolves for two seasons, McLaughlin is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  3. The cap holds for Turner and Brooks remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Timberwolves move further below the tax line, they could gain access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Milwaukee Bucks Vs. Atlanta Hawks

June 23rd, 2021 at 1:41pm CST by Luke Adams

The two Eastern Conference teams left standing this season, the Bucks and Hawks, took very different paths to the conference semifinals.

Milwaukee, led by two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and All-Star Khris Middleton, has made the playoffs for five straight seasons, making it as far as the Eastern Finals in 2019, but never quite getting over the hump. This represents the club’s best chance to break through and compete for a title for the first time in decades.

Atlanta, meanwhile, last made the Eastern Finals back in 2015, when current Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer was at the helm. That 60-win squad was slowly torn down over the next year or two as the Hawks entered a rebuilding process that saw the team win just 24, 29, and 20 games in the three seasons from 2017/18 to ’19/20.

Even with ascendant young players like Trae Young and John Collins leading the way, and several veteran free agents added to the roster in the 2020 offseason, this season’s Hawks appeared lottery-bound, getting off to a 14-20 start. However, since Nate McMillan replaced Lloyd Pierce as Atlanta’s head coach, this has looked like a different team. The Hawks finished the regular season by winning 27 of their last 38 games and have now made an unexpectedly deep postseason run, upsetting the Knicks and Sixers in the first two rounds.

The Bucks are built to win now, having traded several future draft picks last fall in a blockbuster deal for Jrue Holiday. They’ll enter the Eastern Finals as big favorites to win the series (they’re listed as -460 on BetOnline.ag). And after knocking off the Nets – who had been considered the championship frontrunners – anything short of an appearance in the NBA Finals will be considered a disappointmentin Milwaukee.

The Hawks’ season, on the other hand, is already a huge success, and that won’t change even if the team is swept by the Bucks. That doesn’t mean Atlanta will go down quietly though — this group showed during the second half of the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs that it’s for real, and has the luxury of entering the Eastern Finals with the pressure relatively off. The Hawks are essentially playing with house money and shouldn’t have to carry the weight of a looming roster or coaching staff shakeup should they fall short of the NBA Finals.

With Game 1 set to tip off in a matter of hours, we want to get your thoughts on the Eastern Conference Finals. Do you expect the Bucks or Hawks to advance to the NBA Finals? How many games do you think it will take for a team to get to four wins? Do you expect the Eastern winner to ultimately take home the championship?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2021 NBA Draft Picks By Team

June 23rd, 2021 at 10:06am CST by Luke Adams

It wasn’t a great night for the Thunder at Tuesday’s draft lottery. The team had about a two-in-three chance that its own first-round pick would land in the top five and nearly a 50-50 chance that Houston’s pick would slide to No. 5, allowing OKC to swap the No. 18 selection for it. Instead, the Rockets kept their own pick and the Thunder’s selection slipped to No. 6.

Still, no NBA team has more draft picks in 2021 than the Thunder, who control three first-round selections and three more second-rounders.

The Pelicans, Pistons, Knicks, and Nets join them as teams that hold at least four draft picks this year. Those five clubs currently control 23 of the 60 picks in the 2021 draft, so it’s probably safe to assume they’ll be active on the trade market before or during the draft.

To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2021 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 60 picks by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Teams with more than two picks:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (6): 6, 16, 18, 34, 36, 55
  • Brooklyn Nets (5): 27, 29, 44, 49, 59
  • Detroit Pistons (4): 1, 37, 42, 52
  • New Orleans Pelicans (4): 17, 35, 43, 51
  • New York Knicks (4): 19, 21, 32, 58
  • Houston Rockets (3): 2, 23, 24
  • Toronto Raptors (3): 4, 46, 47
  • Orlando Magic (3): 5, 8, 33
  • Charlotte Hornets (3): 11, 56, 57
  • Indiana Pacers (3): 13, 54, 60
  • Philadelphia 76ers (3): 28, 50, 53

Teams with two picks:

  • Golden State Warriors: 7, 14
  • Sacramento Kings: 9, 39
  • San Antonio Spurs: 12, 41
  • Memphis Grizzlies: 10, 40
  • Atlanta Hawks: 20, 48

Teams with one pick:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers: 3
  • Washington Wizards: 15
  • Los Angeles Lakers: 22
  • Los Angeles Clippers: 25
  • Denver Nuggets: 26
  • Utah Jazz: 30
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 31
  • Chicago Bulls: 38
  • Boston Celtics: 45

Teams with no picks:

  • Dallas Mavericks
  • Miami Heat
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Portland Trail Blazers
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Full 2021 NBA Draft Order

June 22nd, 2021 at 9:50pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2021 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on July 29, or in the days leading up to draft night — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2021 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Houston Rockets
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers
  4. Toronto Raptors
  5. Orlando Magic
  6. Oklahoma City Thunder
  7. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. Memphis Grizzlies (from Pelicans)
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors
  15. Washington Wizards
  16. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Celtics)
  17. New Orleans Pelicans (from Grizzlies)
  18. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Heat)
  19. New York Knicks
  20. Atlanta Hawks
  21. New York Knicks (from Mavericks)
  22. Los Angeles Lakers
  23. Houston Rockets (from Trail Blazers)
  24. Houston Rockets (from Bucks)
  25. Los Angeles Clippers
  26. Denver Nuggets
  27. Brooklyn Nets
  28. Philadelphia 76ers
  29. Brooklyn Nets (from Suns)
  30. Utah Jazz

Second Round:

  1. Milwaukee Bucks (from Rockets)
  2. New York Knicks (from Pistons)
  3. Orlando Magic
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. New Orleans Pelicans (from Cavaliers)
  6. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Timberwolves)
  7. Charlotte Hornets (from Raptors via Pistons)
  8. Chicago Bulls (from Pelicans)
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. Memphis Grizzlies (from Bulls via Pelicans)
  11. San Antonio Spurs
  12. Detroit Pistons (from Hornets)
  13. New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
  14. Brooklyn Nets (from Pacers)
  15. Boston Celtics
  16. Toronto Raptors (from Grizzlies)
  17. Toronto Raptors (from Warriors)
  18. Atlanta Hawks (from Heat)
  19. Brooklyn Nets (from Hawks)
  20. Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
  21. New Orleans Pelicans (from Trail Blazers via Grizzlies)
  22. Detroit Pistons (from Lakers)
  23. Philadelphia 76ers (from Mavericks via Pelicans)
  24. Indiana Pacers (from Bucks)
  25. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
  26. Charlotte Hornets (from Clippers)
  27. Detroit Pistons (from Nets via Hornets)
  28. New York Knicks (from Sixers)
  29. Brooklyn Nets (from Suns)
  30. Indiana Pacers (from Jazz)
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