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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets

July 21st, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After signing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving as free agents in 2019, the Nets had to wait a year to really see their two stars in action, as Durant spent the season rehabbing an Achilles tear and Irving was limited to 20 games due to a shoulder injury.

The wait was worth it. Durant and Irving looked like their old selves in 2020/21, and adding James Harden to the mix in January helped turned the Nets’ offense into one of the NBA’s all-time best (the team established a new record for offensive rating).

Unfortunately, the injury bug that turned ’19/20 into a lost season reared its head again a year later. Spencer Dinwiddie missed nearly the entire season, Durant was out for 37 regular season games, Harden was sidelined for 23, and Irving was on the shelf for 18 due to various ailments. Brooklyn still finished second in the East and the team’s Big Three was healthy at the right time heading into the playoffs, but that didn’t last long — Harden (hamstring) and Irving (knee) missed three games apiece in the team’s crucial second-round series vs. the Bucks.

A Nets team at less than full strength put up a valiant effort against Milwaukee, but suffered an overtime loss in Game 7, then watched as the Bucks won two more series to earn the 2021 title.

With better injury luck, it could be the Nets – not the Bucks – celebrating a championship today. But Brooklyn can’t simply assume its luck will be better in 2022. The club will have to do what it can, with limited resources, to continue building a championship roster capable of withstanding an injury to one of its stars.

The Nets’ Offseason Plan:

Durant, Irving, and Harden are all under contract for the 2021/22 season, so there’s no urgency to address their contract situations right away. However, the Nets will surely be motivated to enter into extension talks with their stars, since all three of them have the ability to opt out in 2022.

The cost of those extensions would be absolutely massive. As Bobby Marks of ESPN details, a four-year extension for Irving would average more than $45MM per year, and it would actually be the least expensive of the three — Durant’s four-year extension would come in just shy of $50MM per year, while Harden’s three-year extension would be worth over $53MM annually.

Given the three stars’ respective injury histories and their ages (Irving, the youngest of the three, turns 30 next March), Brooklyn may try to negotiate some protections into the later years of those extensions, but the team risks creating unnecessary drama if it drives too hard a bargain. For instance, if the Nets were to extend one of the three stars and balked at the asking prices for the other two, that situation would hang over the team entering next season.

With those three players practically putting the Nets into tax territory on their own, the club will have to make a concerted effort to get the most of its investments elsewhere on its roster. A minimum salary for Nicolas Claxton? Great, he’s likely not going anywhere. A $10MM salary for DeAndre Jordan? That’s less team-friendly, and could be a contract the Nets try to move this offseason.

The club’s key free agents are Dinwiddie, Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Blake Griffin. A healthy Dinwiddie would be a terrific third guard and insurance policy behind Harden and Irving, but I’d be surprised if he returns, given his asking price.

Brooklyn could look to recoup some value by signing-and-trading Dinwiddie to a new team, but again, any pieces the Nets get back will have to be on favorable contracts. Given how far into the tax the Nets will be, they can’t afford to willingly add any albatross deals. Acquiring a player via sign-and-trade also won’t be possible due to restrictions facing taxpaying teams.

If possible though, the Nets should look to re-sign Brown, Green, and Griffin. The latter two veterans would have to be open to continue playing for the minimum or something close to it, but Brooklyn should be willing to go higher than that for Brown, a jack-of-all-trades who provided strong perimeter defense and fit in well alongside the team’s stars. He’s a restricted free agent, so the Nets can match any offer he receives as long as they’re comfortable with the price.

Other tools at the Nets’ disposal this offseason include the taxpayer mid-level exception and four picks in the 2021 draft (No. 27 and three second-rounders). Any player signed using the taxpayer MLE will cost the team exponentially more than $6MMish due to tax penalties, so if they use that exception on a free agent, the Nets will have to be confident that the player can outperform his salary.

As for the draft picks, they could be used to grease the wheels in a trade (such as a Jordan salary dump), but I expect the Nets to hang onto at least one or two of their second-rounders. Signing second-round draftees to minimum-salary contracts is a good way to prevent the tax bill from ballooning higher than necessary.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 27 overall pick ($2,036,280)
  • No. 44 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 49 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 59 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $2,036,280

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Landry Shamet (rookie scale)
  • Nicolas Claxton (veteran)
  • Kevin Durant (veteran)
  • James Harden (veteran)
  • Kyrie Irving (veteran)
  • DeAndre Jordan (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Next season’s cap projects to be about $112MM+, with the tax line in the $136-137MM range. So, with $154MM+ in guaranteed salaries for just seven players, Brooklyn is essentially a lock to be a taxpaying team.

The Nets’ total tax bill will depend on where the their team salary lands at season’s end. The league assesses a penalty of $1.50 per dollar for the first $5MM over the tax line, but that number continues to rise as team salary climbs further and further. If the Nets carry a team salary $30MM over the tax threshold, they’ll owe $85MM in tax penalties on top of their $177MMish in player salaries.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 5

Footnotes

  1. Johnson’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100K) after September 4.
  2. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Nets for two seasons, Chiozza is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  3. Dinwiddie became an unrestricted free agent by declining his $12.3MM player option.
  4. The cap hold for Chandler remains on the Nets’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Utah Jazz

July 20th, 2021 at 6:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After four years as a solid playoff team in the West, the Jazz took a big step forward in 2020/21, finishing the season with the NBA’s best record at 52-20. The club’s regular season success was buoyed by an improved offense, with Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, and Bojan Bogdanovic playing key roles.

Always a strong defensive team since Rudy Gobert‘s emergence as a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Utah had ranked in the middle of the pack for several years on offense. But in ’20/21, the team’s 116.5 offensive rating was the NBA’s fourth-highest mark and its +9.0 overall net rating was easily the league’s best.

Unfortunately, the Jazz’s dream regular season didn’t translate to playoff success. Like a number of other clubs, Utah was hit with some bad injury luck at the wrong time, as Conley and Mitchell were both slowed by leg injuries in the postseason.

A knee injury to Clippers star Kawhi Leonard presented a golden opportunity for the Jazz to advance to the Western Finals anyway, but the club was unable to take advantage of the opening and was vanquished in the second round by an L.A. squad missing its leading scorer.

Now, Utah will head into the offseason trying to figure out ways to upgrade its roster despite the team’s extremely limited cap flexibility.

The Jazz’s Offseason Plan:

With former executive VP of basketball operations Dennis Lindsey transitioning to an advisory role, it’ll be up to new head of basketball operations Justin Zanik to determine how the Jazz can contend for a title in 2022.

While only nine players have guaranteed contracts for next season, Utah is already on the hook for nearly $130MM in player salaries, and that total doesn’t include Conley, who will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Re-signing Conley is in the Jazz’s best interests — he had a productive 2020/21 season and the club won’t free up any cap space to replace him if he departs.

A new contract for Conley could present some financial issues, however. Even if the point guard takes a pay cut to something in the $15-20MM range (about half of what he earned last season), his deal would take the Jazz well beyond the luxury tax line. The franchise is under new ownership, but we don’t yet know whether Ryan Smith will have the stomach to pay a big tax bill for a roster that has yet to advance beyond the second round of the playoffs.

If the Jazz want to limit their tax penalties, there are essentially two options: letting Conley walk or cutting costs elsewhere. Neither solution is ideal. Conley would be nearly impossible to replace, but the club also doesn’t have any obvious albatross contracts — all its highest-paid players are key contributors to the rotation.

Trimming salary in a trade could mean making veterans like Joe Ingles (one year, $13MM) and Derrick Favors (two years, $20MM) available. Ingles is entering his age-34 season, while the Jazz could probably find a cheaper backup center than Favors.

Jordan Clarkson (three years, $40MM) and Royce O’Neale (three years, $27.5MM) could also be trade candidates. However, Clarkson is an important scorer off the bench and O’Neale is one of Utah’s most versatile defenders — and neither contract is unfavorable.

If Smith doesn’t mind going well into the tax for at least a year, the Jazz could re-sign Conley and then look to reinforce the roster using the taxpayer mid-level exception. Since so few teams have cap room available this summer, Utah could realistically acquire a solid rotation player with that $6MM mid-level.

The Jazz could also make the No. 30 pick in this year’s draft available for veteran help, though the return likely wouldn’t be significant and the team might be better off trying to nail that pick. Adding an inexpensive contributor to the books for the next four years would help offset some of Utah’s pricier contracts.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 30 overall pick ($1,994,520)
  • Total: $1,994,520

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Bojan Bogdanovic (veteran)
  • Miye Oni (veteran)
  • Matt Thomas (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

It’s a safe bet that the Jazz will be over the cap and at least in the neighborhood of the tax line. Even without re-signing Conley, Utah may be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception, since using the non-taxpayer MLE would hard-cap the team at the tax apron, which figures to be in the neighborhood of $143MM.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 6
  • Trade exception: $5,005,350
  • Trade exception: $2,024,079
  • Trade exception: $340,000

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Mitchell’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Thomas’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 3.
  3. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Jazz for two seasons, Brantley is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  4. This is a projected value. Conley’s cap hit will be the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA service.
  5. The cap hold for Mudiay remains on the Jazz’s books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  6. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Which Team Will Win Game 6?

July 20th, 2021 at 12:31pm CST by Luke Adams

With Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s availability up in the air heading into the NBA Finals, the Suns were considered the favorites to win the title. And even though Antetokounmpo was able to suit up for Games 1 and 2, Phoenix won both games, securing a 2-0 lead and further cementing the club’s position as the championship frontrunner.

Since then, however, Antetokounmpo and the Bucks have stormed back. Milwaukee has won three consecutive games, including a pair that went down to the wire. And Giannis has led the way in those victories, averaging an eye-popping 33.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game on 60.0% shooting. The two-time MVP also delivered signature moments in the final minutes of Games 4 and 5, with an incredible blocked shot last Wednesday and an impressive alley-oop finish on Saturday.

While Antetokounmpo has been the driving force behind Milwaukee’s comeback, he’s gotten some help. Khris Middleton poured in 40 points in the Bucks’ Game 4 win and added 29 more in Game 5. Jrue Holiday, after shooting just 4-of-20 in Game 4, made 12-of-20 shots in Game 5, racking up 27 points and 13 assists to go along with a key late-game steal.

The Suns, meanwhile, have gotten up-and-down production from their stars during their three-game losing streak. Devin Booker scored just 10 points on 3-of-14 shooting in Game 3. He bounced back with 42 points in Game 4, but Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton combined for only 16 points on 8-of-22 shooting in that loss.

Booker (40 points), Paul (21 points, 11 assists), and Ayton (20 points, 10 rebounds) were firing on all cylinders in Game 5, but it wasn’t enough — the Suns shot .552/.684/.909, but didn’t play quite enough defense to pull out a win in their home arena.

Now the Suns find themselves in a tough spot tonight. They’ll have to head into Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks are 9-1 so far in the postseason, and find a way to force a Game 7. If a Game 7 is necessary, it’ll take place on Thursday in Phoenix, so the Suns could once again emerge as the favorites to take home the title. But for the time being, they’re significant underdogs, on the road facing a 3-2 deficit. The Bucks are favored by five points on Tuesday.

We want to know what you’re expecting to happen tonight. Will this be the last day of the 2020/21 NBA season, with the Bucks winning a fourth straight game and earning a championship? Or do the Suns have a little more life in them? Can they force a Game 7?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

July 19th, 2021 at 5:56pm CST by Eli Cohen

The Sixers entered this season still smarting from their sweep at the hands of the Celtics in the first round of the 2020 playoffs and looking to regain their status as a Finals contender.

And for much of the year, it looked like they were on track to do just that. With a rebalanced roster and Joel Embiid playing at an MVP level, the Sixers finished the year with a 49-23 record, one game ahead of the Nets for the top seed in the East.

Though Ben Simmons had a disappointing year, averaging the fewest points, rebounds, and assists per game of his career, Tobias Harris looked rejuvenated under head coach Doc Rivers, Seth Curry finished the year sixth in the NBA in three-point percentage, and Dwight Howard and young guards Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey shined in their limited roles.

In the first round of the 2021 playoffs, the Sixers comfortably dispatched the Wizards in five games, but Embiid suffered a meniscus tear in Game 4. While he was able to keep up his dominant level of play in the Sixers’ seven-game series against the Hawks, the team’s supporting cast was ultimately unable to provide enough to best an underdog Atlanta squad. For the second year in a row, the team was left with more questions than answers heading into the offseason following a disappointing playoff performance.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan:

All questions regarding the Sixers offseason begin with Simmons.

Simmons didn’t just take a step back during the regular season — his lack of aggression against the Hawks in the playoffs was so notable that both Embiid and Rivers addressed it in comments to the media following the series’ end. While team president Daryl Morey spoke publicly of his faith in Simmons to address his unwillingness to shoot and to continue to be an important part of the team, reports have since indicated that the Sixers have opened up trade dialogues and are hoping to get a star in return for the 25-year-old point guard.

Despite his flaws, Simmons is a huge part of how the 76ers function, and the possibility of trading him away creates a major question mark about what the team will look like next year. Luckily, the Sixers are no strangers to offseason overhauls. Should Morey manage to trade Simmons in a blockbuster deal, it will be the fourth season in a row in which one of the team’s highest-paid players was either added or subtracted. From acquiring – then losing – Jimmy Butler to signing Al Horford to a $100+MM contract to dumping Horford for Danny Green, the 76ers have gotten into the habit of shaking up the roster on an annual basis.

The Sixers will also have to address Green’s unrestricted free agency. Although he only scored seven points per game during the playoffs, the threat of Green’s shooting and his versatile defense was important, especially given Curry’s limitations on the defensive end. And with the team paying maximum contracts to Embiid, Harris, and Simmons (or, potentially, the centerpiece of a Simmons trade), there will be very little money to replace Green on the open market.

The team will also need to rebalance its roster, as promising rookie Paul Reed represents the only bench depth at the forward/center spot. Furkan Korkmaz, the 6’7″ scoring specialist, will hit unrestricted free agency this summer, meaning Maxey, Milton, Isaiah Joe and Matisse Thybulle are the only bench players on guaranteed contracts, and all are combo guards.

George Hill, who came over in a midseason deal with the Thunder, has a partially-guaranteed deal and was largely ineffective in the series against the Hawks, though he still provided his typical brand of stout defense. With so many guards on the roster, the Sixers may decide not to guarantee the rest of his $10MM deal.

One player of interest will be Howard. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year was great for the Sixers off the bench and filled in when needed for Embiid. Philadelphia would undoubtedly like to keep him around, but it remains to be seen if Howard will be able to score one last slightly bigger payday elsewhere after two solid years of being a backup center.

Curry could potentially offer a point of flexibility. Curry was massively important to the Sixers, both in the playoffs and the regular season. But should Morey move Simmons for a scoring guard (such as CJ McCollum), it’s possible the club could view Curry as redundant and – given his bargain contract – try to move him for another wing, inserting defensive specialist Thybulle into the starting lineup to complement the newly-acquired guard.

Whatever happens, one thing is clear: given the team’s high expectations, roster holes, and lingering trade rumors, the Sixers we see on opening night of the 2020/21 season could look very different from the group we last saw walking off the floor against the Hawks.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 28 overall pick ($2,023,800)
  • No. 50 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $2,023,800

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Seth Curry (veteran)
  • George Hill (veteran)
  • Shake Milton (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If they were to waive Hill, the Sixers would have $120MM+ in commitments for nine roster spots, giving the team the flexibility to remain below the tax line and even use the full mid-level exception.

However, if Philadelphia either hangs onto Hill or re-signs Green, that flexibility below the tax line will mostly disappear and the club would be limited to the taxpayer mid-level. I lean toward the front office taking that approach for now, but it’s hardly set in stone — the 76ers’ financial outlook could also change if they’re able to trim team salary at all on the trade market.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 4
  • Trade exception: $8,190,134

Footnotes

  1. Hill’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 3.
  2. Tolliver’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after September 4.
  3. The cap hold for O’Quinn remain on the Sixers’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Sixers stay below the tax apron, they could have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Denver Nuggets

July 17th, 2021 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Any discussion about how injuries affected the 2021 NBA postseason probably has to start with the Nets and the Lakers, but the Nuggets shouldn’t be overlooked. After acquiring Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline in March, Denver was firing on all cylinders and looked capable of seriously competing for a spot in the NBA Finals.

Those good vibes didn’t last long though. After the Nuggets won eight of their first nine games with Gordon in the lineup, disaster struck in the 10th game, as Jamal Murray suffered a torn ACL that ended his season and will keep him sidelined for the start of the 2021/22 campaign.

The resilient Nuggets still finished the season strong and won a playoff series against Portland. But without Murray, who averaged 26.5 PPG on a scorching .505/.453/.897 shooting line in 19 playoffs games (39.6 MPG) in 2020, the odds of the team making a deep postseason run took a nosedive.

As tempting as it to imagine “what if?” scenarios about how the second-round series against Phoenix might have played out with a healthy Murray, the Nuggets have to turn their attention to figuring out how to make up for his absence to start next season — and how to put themselves in title contention again in 2022.

The Nuggets’ Offseason Plan:

With Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Murray, Gordon, and Monte Morris all under contract for next season, the Nuggets have an enviable core to build upon. Still, there are a number of rotation questions for the team to address this summer.

Will Barton ($14.7MM) and JaMychal Green ($7.6MM) face player option decisions after playing key roles for Denver in 2020/21. Barton, in particular, was an important part of the Nuggets’ success, starting 52 games for the club and serving as a reliable secondary scorer and play-maker. Green’s role was more modest, but he provided reliable depth at the power forward spot and could play the five if needed. The Nuggets, who would probably be just fine with both players opting in, will have to figure out how to replace or re-sign them if they opt out.

Meanwhile, Paul Millsap, JaVale McGee, and Austin Rivers will be unrestricted free agents. The club can withstand losing all three players if necessary, but their contributions shouldn’t be overlooked. Millsap has helped stabilize the frontcourt defense during his time in Denver, while Rivers ended up playing big minutes for the team following injuries to Murray and Barton. I imagine the Nuggets will at least explore bringing all three players back, but if the cost is much higher than the minimum, they may let them walk.

Having already cashed in some of their trade chips for Gordon, the Nuggets seem unlikely to make another major splash in the trade market this offseason, preferring instead to add reinforcements using their draft pick (No. 26 overall) and the mid-level exception.

Whether or not Barton is back, I expect the club will be focused in free agency on finding a guard with some size who can play alongside Morris or Facundo Campazzo in the backcourt. If Green or Millsap returns to join Jokic, Gordon, and Porter, the frontcourt shouldn’t be as high a priority — especially if the team believes Nnaji or Bol is ready to contribute.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Porter will be extension-eligible this offseason and will likely be in line for a max deal or something close to it. While the idea of paying Porter the max with Jokic and Murray already on the books for big money may give the Nuggets pause, extending MPJ is probably the right thing to do — he’s improving at such a rate that he’d still be a positive asset on a more lucrative contract, barring health issues.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 26 overall pick ($2,096,880)
  • Total: $2,096,880

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Michael Porter Jr. (rookie scale)
  • Will Barton (veteran)
  • Vlatko Cancar (veteran)
  • Aaron Gordon (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Nuggets will almost definitely operate over the cap this offseason, and should be able to stay out of tax territory.

Even if we assume Barton and Green pick up their player options, Dozier’s salary is guaranteed, and the team keeps its first-round pick, that would result in about $125MM for 12 players. That would leave Denver with enough flexibility to use its full mid-level exception without crossing the projected tax line (which is in the $136-137MM range).

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
  • Trade exception: $5,325,000
  • Trade exception: $2,193,480
  • Trade exception: $1,620,564

Footnotes

  1. Barton’s decision is reportedly due by July 17.
  2. Green’s decision is reportedly due by July 26.
  3. Dozier’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($200K) after August 16.
  4. Cancar’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 3.
  5. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Harrison is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  6. The cap holds for Daniels and Jefferson remain on the Nuggets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  7. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Qualifying Offers

July 17th, 2021 at 11:53am CST by Luke Adams

Players eligible for restricted free agency don’t become restricted free agents by default. In order to make a player a restricted free agent, a team must extend a qualifying offer to him — a player who doesn’t receive one becomes an unrestricted free agent instead.

The qualifying offer, which is essentially just a one-year contract offer, varies in amount depending on a player’s service time and previous contract status.

If a player reaches free agency with three or fewer years of NBA service time under his belt, his qualifying offer is worth 125% of his prior salary, or his minimum salary plus $200K, whichever is greater.

For instance, after earning $1,663,861 this season, Pistons guard Hamidou Diallo projects to have a minimum salary worth $1,729,217 in 2021/22. Adding $200K to that figure works out to $1,929,217, whereas 125% of his prior salary is $2,079,826. His qualifying offer will be worth the higher amount ($2,079,826).

On the other hand, a player like Magic forward Ignas Brazdeikis signed a minimum-salary contract late in the season and had a cap hit of just $49,510. Calculating 125% of that amount works out to just $61,888, so his qualifying offer projects to be $1,869,178 — his minimum salary ($1,669,178) plus $200K. The exact value of Brazdeikis’ qualifying offer will depend on where exactly the ’20/21 salary cap ends up, since minimum salary increase or decrease at the same rate as the cap.

The qualifying offer for a former first-round pick coming off his rookie scale contract is determined by his draft position. The qualifying offer for a first overall pick is 130% of his fourth-year salary, while for a 30th overall pick it’s 150% of his previous salary — QOs for the rest of the first-rounders fall somewhere in between. The full first-round scale for the draft class of 2017, whose first-rounders will be hitting free agency this summer, can be found here, courtesy of RealGM.

Here are a pair of examples for this offseason: 2017’s second overall pick, Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball, is coming off a fourth-year salary of $11,003,782, so he must be extended a qualifying offer of $14,359,936 (a 30.5% increase) to become a restricted free agent. Meanwhile, the 28th overall pick, Thunder center Tony Bradley, will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $5,277,669, a 49.0% increase on this season’s $3,542,060 salary.

A wrinkle in the Collective Bargaining Agreement complicates matters for some RFAs-to-be, since a player’s previous usage can impact the amount of his qualifying offer. Certain players who meet – or fail to meet – the “starter criteria,” which we break down in a separate glossary entry, become eligible for higher or lower qualifying offers. Here’s how the starter criteria affects QOs:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
    • Note: In 2021, the value of this QO will be $7,031,451.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
    • Note: In 2021, the value of this QO will be $7,705,447.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.
    • Note: In 2021, the value of this QO will be $4,736,102.

Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina is one example of a player who falls into the first group, since he didn’t meet the starter criteria this year. The No. 8 overall pick in 2017, Poeltl will be eligible this offseason for a QO worth $7,031,451 instead of $8,326,027. Conversely, Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen (a former No. 22 overall pick) met the starter criteria and will be eligible for a QO worth $7,705,447 instead of $5,661,538.

[RELATED: Potential 2021 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria]

A qualifying offer is designed to give a player’s team the right of first refusal. Because the qualifying offer acts as the first formal contract offer a free agent receives, his team then receives the option to match any offer sheet the player signs with another club.

A player can also accept his qualifying offer, if he so chooses. He then plays the following season on a one-year contract worth the amount of the QO, and becomes an unrestricted free agent at season’s end if he has at least four years of NBA experience. A player can go this route if he wants to hit unrestricted free agency as early as possible, or if he feels like the QO is the best offer he’ll receive. Accepting the qualifying offer also gives a player the right to veto trades for the season.

Only one restricted free agent, Bulls wing Denzel Valentine, accepted his qualifying offer during the 2020 offseason.

Finally, while the details outlined above apply to players on standard NBA contracts who are eligible for restricted free agency, a different set of rules applies to players coming off two-way contracts. For most of those players, the qualifying offer would be equivalent to a one-year, two-way salary, with $50K guaranteed.

A player who is coming off a two-year, two-way deal, has already been on two-way deals with his current team for at least two seasons, or has four years of NBA service would be eligible for a qualifying offer equivalent to a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract. The guarantee on that QO would have to match or exceed a two-way salary.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

July 17th, 2021 at 10:03am CST by Luke Adams

Coming off their championship in the Walt Disney World bubble in 2020, the Lakers enjoyed a very brief offseason, reporting to training camp just over a month-and-a-half after the NBA Finals ended.

Whether that abridged offseason was a major factor in the team’s up-and-down 2020/21 season is debatable. The Lakers showed no ill effects of the quick turnaround in the early going, getting off to a 21-6 start, but things went south from there.

Anthony Davis and LeBron James both missed time due to injuries and didn’t look 100% healthy when they returned. Los Angeles finished the regular season on a 21-24 run and needed a play-in victory to secure a playoff spot.

The Lakers were still viewed as a legitimate championship threat as the No. 7 seed in the West, but fell to the Suns in six games in round one, ensuring that Davis, James, and the rest of the club will get a much longer summer break in 2021.

The Lakers’ Offseason Plan:

The Lakers won’t have to worry about losing either of their two superstars this offseason, as both Davis and James remain under contract for multiple seasons. But those two are the only players who are locks to return to the team in 2021/22.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, and Marc Gasol are all under contract for at least one more year, but they could be trade candidates if an opportunity arises for Los Angeles to upgrade its roster. Montrezl Harrell has a player option, but could also end up on the trade block if he opts in. And virtually every other player on the roster is a free agent, either unrestricted (Dennis Schröder, Alex Caruso, Markieff Morris, and Andre Drummond, among others) or restricted (Talen Horton-Tucker).

First and foremost, the Lakers will have to determine which of their free agents are the highest priorities.

Schröder is perhaps the most important, given his role (he led the team in minutes played in 2020/21) and the financial considerations at play. The Lakers find themselves in what John Hollinger calls the “Bird rights trap” with Schröder — if he signs elsewhere, the Lakers would still be over the cap without the means to pay another player the sort of salary that Schröder will be seeking (likely $20-25MM per year), which means he has some leverage to squeeze them for a higher salary than they’d like to pay.

The one alternative to either investing heavily in Schröder or losing him for nothing would be to work out a sign-and-trade arrangement sending him to a new team. But I suspect it will be a challenge for Los Angeles to find a club willing to both give the point guard a massive payday and surrender a desirable asset for him.

Besides Schröder, the Lakers’ most important free agents will be Morris, Caruso, and Horton-Tucker. Morris showed a willingness last offseason to accept a discount to be a Laker, and it won’t be surprising if he does so again. But the team will face stiff competition for Caruso and Horton-Tucker and can’t reasonably expect either player – whose career NBA earnings pale in comparison to Morris’ – to take a team-friendly deal.

Caruso will likely get offers worth at least the full mid-level, and it’s not out of the question that Horton-Tucker will too — he’ll be one of the youngest free agents on the market and rival suitors may like the idea of putting pressure on the Lakers to match an aggressive offer sheet.

Determining how to handle the center position will also be a crucial part of the Lakers’ offseason. Gasol, Harrell, and Drummond didn’t have the same kind of success at the five that JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard did the year before, which suggests the team may be better off with players who are happy focusing on rebounding and defense rather than bigs who need to play a major role on offense.

Theoretically, Drummond could play that role, but if offensive touches remain a priority for him, it makes sense to let him seek a new team. Gasol would be content to focus on rebounding and defense, but he has clearly lost a step since his prime, limiting his effectiveness on the defensive end and rendering him almost a non-factor on the offensive end — relying on him to play big minutes would be risky.

I expect the Lakers to spend plenty of time perusing the trade market for upgrades using Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma, and Harrell (if he opts in) as potential chips. But a package that starts with two or three of those guys likely won’t be enough to make the team a favorite to land a true impact player, especially since L.A. has traded away so many of its future first-round picks. Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma, and Harrell can be solid rotation players in the right situation, but none of the three are clear bargains at their current salaries.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 22 overall pick ($2,451,120)
  • Total: $2,451,120

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Alfonzo McKinnie (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With $110MM+ committed to five roster spots, the Lakers project to be over the cap before addressing a single one of their free agents. If the team re-signs Schröder, it’s a safe bet Los Angeles will find itself in luxury tax territory in 2021/22.

Even without a new deal for Schröder, the club could end up a taxpayer based on Harrell’s option and potential new contracts for guys like Caruso, Morris, and Horton-Tucker. If they let a bunch of free agents walk or make a cost-cutting trade, the Lakers could theoretically stay below the tax apron and use the full mid-level exception, but I’m not counting on that outcome.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 5
  • Trade exception: $674,408

Footnotes

  1. Harrell’s decision is reportedly due by July 31.
  2. Antetokounmpo has reached a contract agreement with French team ASVEL. The Lakers could still make the procedural move of tendering him a qualifying offer if they want to retain matching rights in the event of his return to the NBA. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Lakers for two seasons, Antetokounmpo is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  3. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Lakers for two seasons, Cacok is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  4. The cap hold for Waiters remains on the Lakers books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. This is a projected value. If the Lakers stay below the tax apron, they could have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Rockets’ No. 2 Pick

July 17th, 2021 at 8:14am CST by Luke Adams

While Cade Cunningham is widely expected to be the first player drafted on July 29, there’s no established consensus about which prospect should be the second player off the board, making the Rockets‘ pick at No. 2 overall one of the most fascinating selections of the draft.

Essentially, there are three directions the Rockets could go. They could keep the pick, trade up to No. 1, or trade down.

Let’s start with the most straightforward – and probably the most likely – outcome: keeping the pick. Even in that scenario, the Rockets will face a difficult decision. You could make a legitimate case for Jalen Green, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, and even Jonathan Kuminga to be the second player selected after Cunningham.

With a pick as high as No. 2, a rebuilding team should always take the best player available rather than focusing on fit. But if the Rockets like Mobley and one of the other top prospects about equally, perhaps concerns about Mobley’s potential fit alongside Christian Wood in the frontcourt push the needle toward the other player.

That “other player” seems most likely to be Green, who is currently projected as the Rockets’ pick in mock drafts by ESPN, Bleacher Report, The Ringer, and others. Of all the players in this year’s draft class, Green is the best bet to rank among the NBA’s leading scorers year-in and year-out, making him a logical choice to be a centerpiece of the rebuild in Houston, where the team traded longtime leading scorer James Harden earlier in the year.

While the Rockets may be happy to stand pat and nab Green or another promising young prospect, one recent report suggested the team has been “fixated” on Cunningham. Another story said Houston has been aggressive in its efforts to trade up to No. 1.

Obviously, the question of whether the Rockets “should” trade up to No. 1 depends in large part on the price. If it’s just a matter of adding the 23rd pick to the No. 2, then sure, that’s a no-brainer. But the cost figures to be much higher than that — in order to move up for a consensus top prospect like Cunningham, Houston would likely have to include an unprotected or lightly-protected future first-rounder in its offer in order to get Detroit’s attention.

If the Rockets really believe in Cunningham’s star potential, that price may be worth it — after all, following the Harden trade, the club has no shortage of future first-round selections to dangle in trade talks.

On the other hand, if the price to trade up to No. 1 is deemed too high and the Rockets’ have no clear preference at No. 2, perhaps trading down is worth exploring. Although Houston did add a number of draft picks and swaps in the Harden blockbuster, the team has also traded away a couple of its own first-rounders and isn’t as loaded with future draft assets as rebuilding rivals like the Thunder or Pelicans.

The opportunity to move down a handful of spots and pick up a few more assets to use during the rebuild may appeal to the Rockets — especially if they’re high on a specific prospect who would still be available in the 4-6 range.

Again, the terms of a potential trade here are crucial in determining whether it’s a viable path for the Rockets, particularly since this year’s draft class has a distinct top tier. If they’re moving out of the top five and not acquiring a ton of assets for their trouble, the Rockets likely won’t be interested. On the other hand, if they’re just trading down a spot or two and receiving a couple valuable future draft picks, that would be much more intriguing.

We want to know what you think. Will the Rockets trade up or down, or will they stay put? If they keep the No. 2 pick, will Green be the pick? Should he be the pick, or would you like to see Houston go in a different direction?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

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Community Shootaround: Lonzo Ball

July 14th, 2021 at 6:18pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Pelicans guard Lonzo Ball will be one of the most intriguing free agents on the market next month.

He’ll be a restricted free agent, unless New Orleans fails to extend a $14.36MM qualifying offer. By giving him a QO, the Pelicans will be able to match an offer sheet for Ball. However, the team won’t be able to execute a sign-and-trade if Ball signs an offer sheet with a rival suitor.

According to The Athletic’s Shams Charania, the team is unlikely to match a significant offer sheet on Ball. The Bulls and Clippers, both of whom are seeking a long-term solution at point guard, are expected to make a push for Ball. The Knicks, who have tons of cap room, have also been mentioned in some circles as a possible suitor.

Agent Rich Paul told Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports that he and his client are “open-minded” about free agency.

“The phone lines will definitely be open come free agency,” Paul said. “At the end of the day, we’ll look to make the best deal.”

Charania’s report suggests the Pelicans are lukewarm at best about retaining Ball. Though Ball averaged a career-high 14.6 PPG this season and improved his 3-point and free throw shooting, New Orleans is looking for ways to improve its mix around franchise player Zion Williamson. With Williamson becoming more of a playmaker, Ball’s skill set might be more suited for a team that puts greater value on his passing ability.

That brings us to our question of the day: Where do you think Pelicans free agent guard Lonzo Ball will wind up in free agency?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

July 14th, 2021 at 11:50am CST by Luke Adams

No NBA team outperformed its preseason expectations more significantly in the 2020/21 season than the Knicks, who were projected by oddsmakers to be in the mix for the league’s worst record. Instead, New York, buoyed by a Julius Randle breakout year and the influence of new head coach Tom Thibodeau, claimed a top-four seed in the East by finishing with a 41-31 record.

The Knicks’ first-round series vs. Atlanta exposed some of the deficiencies that the team was able to mask during the regular season, and Thibodeau’s club made a quick postseason exit, losing to the Hawks in five games. But it was still a massively successful year for a franchise that hadn’t made the playoffs or even finished above .500 since 2013.

While some regression should perhaps be expected in 2021/22, the Knicks are well-positioned to avoid taking a step backward by adding reinforcements to their core group, which includes Randle and rising forward RJ Barrett. New York will have more cap space than any other NBA team and has extra first-round picks both this year and in the future, making the club a threat to be a player in free agency or on the trade market.

The Knicks are still a ways off from title contention, but for the first time in years, there are legitimate reasons to be optimistic about the team’s future.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan:

Although the Knicks are in a good spot to add outside help to their roster, many of their most important decisions will be made on their own players.

Randle, for instance, was once considered a candidate to be waived before his full 2021/22 salary became guaranteed. That’s no longer a realistic outcome. Instead, the Knicks will have to decide whether to offer him an extension that could have a base value worth up to $106MM+ over four years (plus incentives) and Randle will have to decide whether to accept it.

If New York believes Randle’s improvements – particularly his three-point percentage – are sustainable, offering that extension certainly makes sense for the team. Of course, if Randle believes the same thing, he’d be justified in turning down such an offer in the hopes of securing a more lucrative contract as a free agent in 2022.

Randle’s future will in turn impact that of 2020 lottery pick Obi Toppin, who had an underwhelming rookie year, in large part because he wasn’t a great fit in lineups that featured Barrett and Randle. If the Knicks are committed to Randle long-term, Toppin could become a trade chip.

The Knicks also face an important decision on Mitchell Robinson, who has a non-guaranteed minimum salary for 2021/22. Typically, guaranteeing that salary and perhaps exploring a contract extension would be the obvious move for the club. But if Robinson reaches free agency in 2022, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. If New York turns down his team option, he’d be a restricted free agent this summer, giving the team more control in locking him up going forward.

The Knicks will have to determine whether Robinson, who was limited to 31 games this season due to a right foot injury, is a crucial part of their future. If he is, they’ll have to figure out what the best approach is for making sure he’s around for the long haul.

Finally, the Knicks face decisions on several veteran free agents, including key role players like Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, and Reggie Bullock. All of those vets could be in line for raises after strong seasons in New York, so the team will have to weigh which of its free agents are worth more substantial investments and which should be cut loose in search of a better bargain.

We haven’t even gotten yet to the upgrades the Knicks may pursue outside of the organization, but their options should be plentiful. In recent years, the organization has been unable to attract top free agents to New York due to the club’s poor play and questionable leadership. But the Knicks’ 2020/21 success and the stability that Thibodeau and president of basketball operations Leon Rose have brought to the franchise have helped boost the team’s appeal.

That doesn’t mean the Knicks will be able to go out and add Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul, but it does mean that free agency could be a more viable path to adding an impact player than it has been in recent years. That’s especially true given New York’s financial flexibility — if the team wants to outbid rival suitors for a veteran free agent such as Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, or Spencer Dinwiddie, it has the ability to do so.

That cap flexibility will also help grease the wheels for potential trades. For example, while I don’t view Collin Sexton as a perfect fit in New York, there are rumors that the team has been the most aggressive trade suitor for him so far. The Knicks’ financial flexibility could allow them to take on Kevin Love‘s oversized contract as part of a Sexton deal, or to comfortably negotiate a long-term extension for the high-scoring guard. Again, I’m not sure either of those moves is in New York’s best interest, but those are the kinds of possibilities that cap space helps create.

Of course, in their first year with substantial cap room available in 2020, Rose and the Knicks’ front office took a more conservative approach, prioritizing short-term, team-friendly deals for undervalued players like Burks and Noel.

It’s possible the team could go that route again if there are no favorable opportunities to take a bigger swing. But after the Knicks’ success in 2020/21, I imagine the front office will feel a little more pressure – including perhaps from Thibodeau – to add the types of players who can help the club take another step forward in ’21/22.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall pick ($2,770,560)
  • No. 21 overall pick ($2,553,120)
  • No. 32 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 58 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,323,680

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kevin Knox (rookie scale)
  • Julius Randle (veteran)
  • Mitchell Robinson (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Locking in Randle’s salary would result in about $50MM in guaranteed salaries for five roster spots. From there, the Knicks could go a number of ways in filling out their roster.

If we assume the team picks up Robinson’s option and keeps its two first-round picks while waiving or renouncing everyone else, that’d result in nearly $52MM in cap space. Adding Rose’s cap hold would bring that cap room projection down to $42.5MM; adding Noel’s cap hold would reduce it to about $37.5MM, and so on. Trading one or both of their first-round picks could slightly increase the team’s space.

Essentially, even if the Knicks do want to try to bring back two or three of their free agents, they’ll be able to generate enough cap room for a maximum-salary contract or close to it. It’s a safe bet they’ll operate under the cap this offseason rather than over it.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Randle’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 31.
  2. Robinson will be eligible for restricted free agency if his option is declined.
  3. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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